tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post113875854145351111..comments2024-03-05T05:38:22.024-05:00Comments on Left at the Gate: Gulfstream Tag SaleAlan Mannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12570505944559196118noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-1138833261677118832006-02-01T17:34:00.000-05:002006-02-01T17:34:00.000-05:00...incidentally, i do feel you can take a shorter ......incidentally, i do feel you can take a shorter price with Oaks futures than you can with the Derby...partly because the Oaks favorites are generally a little stronger in proportion to the rest of the field, but mainly because the Oaks doesn't draw a 20-horse field where all hell can break loose on the racetrack...for instance, i'd have been tempted to back Balance at somewhere around 25/1 or 30/1, whereas i couldn't have taken that price on any Derby participant...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-1138831344779902942006-02-01T17:02:00.000-05:002006-02-01T17:02:00.000-05:00...like i was saying before, people are weird!...h......like i was saying before, people are weird!...how does Folklore get bet to 6/1 favoritism for the Oaks, after flaming out @ 1/5 odds just one week ago???...it's as if that race never happened...are people really that ignorant???...and even if she DIDN'T fall flat on her face recently, does she deserve to be anywhere NEAR 6/1 for a race that's still THREE MONTHS AWAY???...simply unbelievable...myself, i make Balance the favorite for the race right now, and even she was unplayable @ 13/1 odds...same deal with Brother Derek or First Samurai or any other horse who went off below 40/1 in the Derby pool...if you think you better than a 1-in-40 chance of picking the Derby winner on February 1st, no matter WHO it is, then there's a bridge in Brooklyn you might be interested in...that's what makes these pari-mutuel futures such a joke...with only 24 betting intersts, it's virtually impossible to get fair value on anyone but the "field"...even the longshots are gonna be far to low...and what's with these morning lines???...Battaglia makes Half Ours 30/1 to win the Derby, when the horse has never been beyond 5 furlongs and hasn't even run since last MAY???...now, i know his MAIN concern is not offending the connections of any horse, and attempting to make it seem as if the prices in the pools bear SOME resemblence to reality, but who is he trying to kid???...surely he can't be THAT ignorant...same deal with the "Watchmaker Line" that appears in that "Derby Watch" column that'll be cranking up shortly...at least Battaglia (and the Vegas bookmakers) have some sort of vested interest in the numbers, because there's actual money changing hands...but shouldn't the Racing Form (which does NOT accept wagers) attempt to display odds that contain some realism?...of course, the Form has a working relationship with Churchill Downs, and also some of the Vegas books (who advertise in their publication and provide occasional article fodder), so i'm sure the Form isn't looking to step on any toes either...so basically, there's a conspiracy to produce a big lie...or at least that's how it appears to me...even TRAINERS are falling into the trap now, check out this quote from Hollendorfer regarding Cause to Believe: "The people who rate the horses for the Derby had him morning-lined at 20/1, so i think we'll have to move up after today"...who is Hollendorfer kidding?...does he really think his horse has better than a 20/1 shot at winning the Derby???...maybe on race day, but not on February 1st, Jerry...sorry for the rant, but i just can't believe this whole Derby-odds thing...living in Vegas the past several years, it's become something of a sore spot with me due to all the casinos low-balling everything...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com