tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post1624266902039097375..comments2024-03-05T05:38:22.024-05:00Comments on Left at the Gate: Odds and EndsAlan Mannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12570505944559196118noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-90595527312384896992013-03-16T05:48:33.818-04:002013-03-16T05:48:33.818-04:00But who determines what odds a horse "should ...But who determines what odds a horse "should be"? I believe its the general public, with fair odds in any race(with a significant pool) being the final odds, end of story.<br /><br />Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, only winning is relevant.<br /><br />You and I can look at the same even money horse, with me believing it should be 3-5 and you believing fair odds are 8-5. If I play and it wins it was a great wager, you play another horse and lose. <br /><br />Who made the better bet? I did. <br /><br />But so many times I hear the loser claiming they made a good bet.<br /><br />Our overall handicapping skill will determine who, if either of us, wins in the long run, and if I win on this horse on this particular day I was better than you. Your opinion of the horses fair odds is irrelevant to my wager.<br /><br />When wagering seriously, I rarely if ever shop for odds, because if I am letting the odds board determine my wager it means I don't have a strong opinion. I either like a horse or I don't.<br /><br />As a non-professional gambler there are races I play casually where I don't have a strong opinion, if I am at the track with friends just having a good time for instance, and in those races I will shop a bit for odds, but that means I don't have a strong opinion and a disciplined player should pass the race in that situation. I take a shot, but because I bet on a 15-1 shot that I thought could be 5-1 and it runs last doesn't make it a good bet.Figlessnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-41637344161982323222013-03-13T10:13:50.874-04:002013-03-13T10:13:50.874-04:00I believe a classification system similar to Meado...I believe a classification system similar to Meadowlands would work in the winter at the Big A, in place of claimers.<br /><br />All they need to do is advertise it in advance, with the high purse structure, and the horsemen will come, and as a side benefit a lot of the cheaters will depart.Figlessnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-52755875000637294832013-03-13T10:10:13.889-04:002013-03-13T10:10:13.889-04:00I've often heard horseplayers argue they made ...I've often heard horseplayers argue they made a good bet when they play against a favorite with a pricey horse and lose a close decision. If you made a good bet you should have cashed a ticket in that circumstance, at a minimum.<br /><br />I love your comment regarding Verazano, the raves about this horse are unwarranted. He is lightly raced, obviously talented, but untested colt with some promise, but until he beats a decent horse he should not be on anyone's top ten contender list.<br /><br />Every year some horse gets the pundits excited after running a big fig in Tampa, every year that horse does nothing subsequently.<br /><br />V is a bet against wherever he shows up next.Figlessnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-51033583658837039802013-03-13T10:07:10.224-04:002013-03-13T10:07:10.224-04:00Hey A,
Competitiveness (ie an interesting betting...Hey A,<br /><br />Competitiveness (ie an interesting betting race) is what was alluded later in the article. I think we all agree on that. <br /><br />The Meadowlands has done an amazing job. It's a real change from many other racetracks. For example, they got 11 entries for a little stakes race last month. Instead of splitting it up into two fields of 5 and 6, with two probable hot faves in each, they simply scrapped the race. They did not want to put on a race, for the sake of putting on a race. <br /><br />Peter in the race office does this daily: Race by race things are looked at to ensure they're putting out a proper betting product.<br /><br />I believe all tracks have to work that way. It keeps customers and bettors engaged. That helps the sport.<br /><br />Cheers,<br /><br />DAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-19720398391752530342013-03-13T08:28:03.767-04:002013-03-13T08:28:03.767-04:00What's 'quality' anyway? Apparently q...What's 'quality' anyway? Apparently quality refers to one horse having the ability to run faster than another. How can a bettor recognize quality when he is unable to determine how fast a horse is running without referring to an electronic timer, his eyes unable to determine how fast a race is being run?<br /><br />What's a good bet? One that encompasses field size, talent, and pool size? Methinks a good bet is one where the bettor believes a horse can win a race, and does, regardless of field size, talent, or pool size - all winning tickets are good bets, all losing tickets bad bets.wmcorrownoreply@blogger.com