tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post2788923126826528594..comments2024-03-05T05:38:22.024-05:00Comments on Left at the Gate: Jet LaggedAlan Mannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12570505944559196118noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-70203144091102858902011-09-08T09:45:07.956-04:002011-09-08T09:45:07.956-04:00I've performed a retro analysis of my plays a ...I've performed a retro analysis of my plays a few times in my long undistinguished career in handicapping and came to the conclusion that historically I perform best on straight win bets.<br /><br />Unfortunately as a mostly weekend warrior this just does not provide the thrill I want during one of my all too infrequent visits to the track.<br /><br />I do believe one can gain a competitive advantage against the takeout by playing DD's which pay more than the parlay in 95% of the cases thereby reducing takeout to almost zero in some cases. And this is much easier to do nowadays with rolling DD's.<br /><br />While the same can be achieved in multi race wagers of three races or more, I find the random result more likely to jump up and bite you when you get greedy and try to win more than two races in a row.<br /><br />So if I were to quit my job and go pro I would make only win and DD wages, but I totally lack the discipline to actually stick to this plan so I will keep the day job.Figlessnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-7898570266532013502011-09-07T15:34:39.200-04:002011-09-07T15:34:39.200-04:00Talking with friends can often lead to confusion. ...Talking with friends can often lead to confusion. <br /><br />Horseracing is like any other endeavor. It takes hard work or inside information. The best horseplayers devote dozens of hours a week analyzing the crap out of stats and looking for an angle that they can apply to a race. For someone like me who has a myriad of other interests and only plays on big race days, this is pointless, and thus I accept that I'm going to have my occasional good scores, but probably come out on the losing end, due to the take-out and my lack of self-discipline. <br /><br />A friend of mine put it nicely -- you need to approach the race like a scientist, not a detective. A detective analyzes the pps and treats it like a murder mystery and tries to uncover what might happen. A scientist comes into a race with a preconcieved set of notions. He/She is looking for something specific. Either he has been following a single horse closely, the way Discreet Picks seems to operate, or he believe that horses who run fast third quarters and then fade in routes offer great betting value in their subsequent start. Whatever the science he is using, he has shown a longterm profit with this angle and understands what constitutes value. There's usually no Rosetta Stone. You have to work your ass off. The vig is tough to overcome over the long haul. And yes, you'll have a dumb schmuck who doesn't know what he is doing win at the races from time to time. This is called random luck. It happens. -jpAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-10374392392349857002011-09-07T15:12:53.727-04:002011-09-07T15:12:53.727-04:00To me, the best way to handicap is to look at the ...To me, the best way to handicap is to look at the form beforehand and talk about it with friends before the day's races start. Makes you articulate why exactly you like a horse.El Angelohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-26043476703444227092011-09-07T14:42:26.828-04:002011-09-07T14:42:26.828-04:00I guess I just figured Alan knew what he was talki...I guess I just figured Alan knew what he was talking about jp.Johnnienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-33681485558793910052011-09-07T14:25:24.263-04:002011-09-07T14:25:24.263-04:00Who the hell would ever listen to Alan anyhow when...Who the hell would ever listen to Alan anyhow when it comes to picking races? It's your fault, Johnnie. Quit scapegoating, brau. -jpAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-26038561435067011662011-09-07T14:24:41.073-04:002011-09-07T14:24:41.073-04:00You have broached a subject that all 'cappers ...You have broached a subject that all 'cappers have anguished over for decades: to study the past performances all night, or to wait until post time to peruse the past performances and make a selection(s).<br /><br />Based on decades of exposure, experience, and losses, the advantage is with the guy/gal who gets a good night's sleep.<br /><br />How many times have we all gone to a racetrack with a friend, who doesn't know which end the horse eats, yet manages to turn a profit for the day? While selections made at midnight run up the track!<br /><br />I, a bettor for many years, am no better at picking winners today than fifty years ago. How can that be? After learning the basics, there are simply to many variables remaining to be totally confident of a selection. Not like craps, black jack, ect. where the parameters are well established, a horses that looks like a winner on paper usually does not run the same on the track. The variables get in the way: stumbled, blocked, taken wide, poor ride, rushed, et cetera.<br /><br />So why do I still gamble on the ponies? Cause, when I do have a horse in contention turning for home, the enjoyment surpasses all other forms of gambling, and the losses incurred to date are forgotten.<br /><br />------<br /><br />As Thoroughbred racing declines, it is a damn shame that the people sitting comatose in front of slot machines are totally unaware of what exists next door in the racebook; a place where for 50 cent to a buck huge scores can be made. So much for promoting Thoroughbred racing as a gambling entity. Instead we get an occasional stake race in the news that few identify with as a gambling source, an alternative to casino gambling.wmcorrownoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-89709097036469463652011-09-07T13:29:23.974-04:002011-09-07T13:29:23.974-04:00>>I've already lost plenty with some of ...>>I've already lost plenty with some of your previous selections...<br /><br />Not as much as me. Sorry...alannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-20232014615918619962011-09-07T12:46:48.357-04:002011-09-07T12:46:48.357-04:00I've already lost plenty with some of your pre...I've already lost plenty with some of your previous selections, so I'll be withholding any type of reimbursement until your handicapping improves.<br /><br />Thanks for the t-shirt.Johnnienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-63931547347474719132011-09-07T11:28:11.469-04:002011-09-07T11:28:11.469-04:00>>If I bet this pick and lose, will you reim...>>If I bet this pick and lose, will you reimburse me?<br /><br />I'll send you a Left at the Gate t-shirt. If i ever make them.<br /><br />If you fade my picks and you win, will you reimburse me? :-)<br /><br />Do I need to include a disclaimer? :-/alannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-29849203689668805412011-09-07T11:16:14.133-04:002011-09-07T11:16:14.133-04:00If I bet this pick and lose, will you reimburse me...If I bet this pick and lose, will you reimburse me?Johnnienoreply@blogger.com