tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post4861118276892638424..comments2024-03-05T05:38:22.024-05:00Comments on Left at the Gate: Aqueduct NotesAlan Mannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12570505944559196118noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-15992829618193147242009-01-11T07:24:00.000-05:002009-01-11T07:24:00.000-05:00If you're upset at redboarding, please don't read ...If you're upset at redboarding, please don't read this. I'm only posting this because Alan, you wrote that the winner in Friday's AQ feature was "tough to make," and she made my day, so let me share info...<BR/><BR/>On Ragozin Sheets, the chalk Weathered looked ready for a bounce and Awesome Ashley, while a toss on Beyer #s, looked like a contender on Ragozin figures.<BR/><BR/>Weathered was coming off 3 pretty closely spaced races, each one an "effort" (within 2 two Ragozin points of her best). She had shown the same pattern near the beginning of last year, and followed the three efforts with a bad bounce. Her 3 recent efforts were 9, then 9, then 10-1/2 (another sign of tailing off -- on Rag, lower #s are better than higher ones).<BR/><BR/>Awesome Ashley on the other hand, also ran a 10-1/2 recently, in the race before she tired badly against Weathered. So while she's had plenty of trouble sustaining her form, and I'd have never keyed her at a low price, she totally qualified as an "odds vs. numbers" play. Awesome Ashley looked terrible using Beyer #s. While Ragozin gave W's last and AA's next to last the same figure, Beyer made Weathered 13 points faster comparing those same two races. AA did run 4-wide, which Beyer gives no credit for, but I suspect there was a difference in variants as well.<BR/><BR/>As a player, I love the inflated odds one gets when a horse has a bad last race showing (with no huge trouble comment to attract trip players). I look for inconsistency while it seems the bulk of the money is bet on consistency. <BR/><BR/>Sure horses that ran 2nd in their last race have the best statistical chance of winning today. But Mark Cramer did a study years back comparing ROI to last race finish and found that horses that ran 5th in their last did best, beating the track take. I'm not arguing to play horses that ran 5th as opposed to 4th or 6th. But when looking at bad races last out, I err on the side of ignoring them.<BR/><BR/>Sorry to post so belatedly about this. Saturday was a family day.<BR/><BR/>I'll root for the Rap Tale sib today, and for the filly herself in the upcoming stakes.steve in nchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04061356872686618093noreply@blogger.com