tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post5315481842971214371..comments2024-03-05T05:38:22.024-05:00Comments on Left at the Gate: Sunday News and NotesAlan Mannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12570505944559196118noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-71415750662489907872011-02-27T12:07:33.501-05:002011-02-27T12:07:33.501-05:00There's a great small track announcer in Canad...There's a great small track announcer in Canada - Darren Dunn of Assiniboia Downs, in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. He manages to extract excitement, even when it's $3000n1y's at the end of a long season....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-700748039643369982011-02-17T19:10:38.927-05:002011-02-17T19:10:38.927-05:00Brethren ran significantly faster on the same day&...Brethren ran significantly faster on the same day's card than did Tapizar, who came back to win the Grade 3 Sham by open lengths in his following start (with a 98 Beyer, i might add). Tapizar's effort came around two turns, while Brethren's came around one turn, so obviously that has to be factored into the splits. But Brethren still ran faster than Tapizar, bottom line. And in addition to being flattered by Tapizar, Brethren also beat Black N Beauty in his debut. That one came back to win two straight, including an impressive allowance win @ Gulfstream. Brethren then goes out and totally overwhelms the Sam Davis field despite breaking from the 10-hole in a two-turn race.<br /><br />You're right, he's horrible.DiscreetPickshttp://www.DiscreetPicks.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-36437432495293309042011-02-17T18:39:01.735-05:002011-02-17T18:39:01.735-05:00I realize, DiscreetPicks, from your opinions that ...I realize, DiscreetPicks, from your opinions that you don't know a lot about handicapping, or even horse racing, which is cool, so bear with me while I go slowly.<br /><br />Dialed In was a first time starter<br /><br />Horses frequently improve dramatically from one start to the next early in their careers ( especially from the period between 2 and 3 ).<br /><br />Dialed In broke poorly in his debut and rallied from near last in the final quarter. This is not always easy to do.<br /><br />Thus, his fig was earned under less than ideal circumstances, thus his improvement ( on a speed figure level ) was even less surprising.<br /><br />Now, let's go to Brethren. He received the same, decent but not great, speed figure for his first two races. Thus showing no improvement from one start to the next as a 2YO. While this isn't out of the ordinary, it is not a great sign.<br /><br />Then he came out for his first 3YO start, a little over two months since his last start, and ran an almost identical figure. The consistency is troubling, as he is not improving, and needs to in order to make himself competitive with his peers in tougher races. Surely you don't consider the Sam Davis runner-up a TC contender....or do you?<br /><br />Now, perhaps Brethren will take a step forward, as he is still young, and lightly raced, but I find his plateauing at a mediocre level to be a cause for concern ( that is, if I wanted him to be successful ).<br /><br />Before you go and make the bad analogy that Uncle Mo does not rate to improve his speed figure from his last at 2 when he debuts at 3, please take into account the different set of circumstances for each horse, the kind of races each last raced in, and what would be fair to expect in each's 3YO debuts, especially if you wanted one to move forward, while you wanted another to merely get things started.<br /><br />Brethren is slow. If you like to bet slow horses, feel free to get on his bandwagon. It will be emptying out very soon. Hedge Fund deserved a better brother.The Messangernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-79094949704443807712011-02-17T07:16:28.876-05:002011-02-17T07:16:28.876-05:00Oh, my apologies. He got a 75.Oh, my apologies. He got a 75.DiscreetPickshttp://www.DiscreetPicks.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-23773610498249542152011-02-17T07:12:16.200-05:002011-02-17T07:12:16.200-05:00Dialed In was given a 77 Beyer for winning that ma...Dialed In was given a 77 Beyer for winning that maiden race @ Churchill. I guess that made him too slow to win the Holy Bull, eh?DiscreetPickshttp://www,DiscreetPicks.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-87481377323839106482011-02-16T08:41:09.879-05:002011-02-16T08:41:09.879-05:00You miss the point, Messenger. Do you think Beyer ...You miss the point, Messenger. Do you think Beyer is in some lab doing calculus with a group of MIT interns when he was making these figures? There was one fucking two turn race at Tampa on Saturday and he is using a 3rd-grade level chart plus a variant (pure guess work, given woefully little data) to come up with a speed fig for Brethren. <br /><br />Is Brethren slow, relative to the top three year olds in the country? Yes, even if you account for the significant margin of error in Beyer's flawed figs, he's slow. But it is fair to cast some doubt on the 83 fig. As it turns out, I don't think you'll be able to find a huge wagering opportunity with Brethren even if you think he's much faster than the numbers because the performance was visually impressive. Plus this horse has been pounded like a good thing at the window in each of his starts, which leads one to believe he won't be 40-1 in the Fountain of Youth or wherever he starts next. So it's a moot point, but don't act like people here are oblivious to the brilliant algorhythms behind Beyers figs. Like any speed fig, they are flawed. -jpAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-55123821907328287782011-02-16T08:25:52.898-05:002011-02-16T08:25:52.898-05:00TM - If they are pure genius why are they so often...TM - If they are pure genius why are they so often adjuested retroactively?<br /><br />Is suspect this Beyer will be in the low 90's when you peruse the pp's on the first Saturday in May.<br /><br />Anyone have his fig from any of the sheets?Figlessnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-57662164781749573862011-02-16T05:39:28.543-05:002011-02-16T05:39:28.543-05:00People that think Brethren's Beyer Speed figur...People that think Brethren's Beyer Speed figure for the Sam Davis is low don't understand how to make Speed Figures of any kind. It's really as simple as that.<br /><br />Newsflash - Beyer figs are not handed out like points in Olympic events where judges vote. They are mathematical calculations and, believe it or not, they aren't affected by any personal biases from those that make them.<br /><br />Brethren is slow. Sorry if that bothers you. It's not Beyer's fault. Nor is it the fault of any intelligent speed figure maker. They all know he's slow.The Messangernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-60699313103947042112011-02-15T13:59:35.494-05:002011-02-15T13:59:35.494-05:00Hawthorne, Tampa Bay, Oaklawn, ... I wish those tr...Hawthorne, Tampa Bay, Oaklawn, ... I wish those tracks had Trakus!<br /><br />Also, I agree with jp that Brethern's Beyer is deceptively low. I hope to make money because of that down the road. Mike D.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-22951757674995498172011-02-15T13:51:56.603-05:002011-02-15T13:51:56.603-05:00Thanks Discreet. I am on Dialed In big in the futu...Thanks Discreet. I am on Dialed In big in the futures book. I am afraid of Mo, but no one else scares me. Long way to go.Stevennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-7056396706710230672011-02-15T10:44:52.967-05:002011-02-15T10:44:52.967-05:00DP, the Sam Davis illustrates a general problem wi...DP, the Sam Davis illustrates a general problem with speed figures. It was the only dirt race contested around two turns at Tampa that day. The raw time was slow at 145 flat. The one-turn races all came back fairly slow as well and it's safe to say there were no world-beaters on track that day. The prime competition to Bretheren, Washington's Rules, bounced to the moon. The second place horse looks like he has claimer talent. Overall, I also wonder if Uncle Mo had the race if the BSF would be higher. Either way, the horse totally outclassed the opposition and did so in hand. I think he's better than the 83 beyer, but only time will tell. In situations such as this, the figuremakers are mostly throwing darts, since they have such limited information to work with. -jpAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-88917884894841530442011-02-15T05:19:45.298-05:002011-02-15T05:19:45.298-05:00I've been extremely impressed with him, in fac...I've been extremely impressed with him, in fact i gave him out in the Holy Bull last month. The way he came rolling up late after blowing the start in his debut was really eye-catching, especially since the rider appeared more concerned with keeping him straight than he did with encouraging him to the lead. The colt did it completely on his own, and although it was just a 6 1/2-furlong sprint race, it certainly appeared from the looks of things (not to mention the breeding) that he would be able to stretch out no problem. I was surprised that he dropped so far off the pace in the Holy Bull (i thought he'd likely be closer this time with a clean break), but i was definitely not surprised that he showed the kind of late strength that he did. Impossible to say for sure because he hasn't done it yet, but i would expect he may even improve around two turns. Talent isn't even an issue. I can't rank him ahead of Uncle Mo right now, because that one's credentials are impeccable at this point, but i would definitely rank him second. Dialed In might have more upside, hard to say right now.DiscreetPickshttp://www.DiscreetPicks.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-21717170463330403312011-02-15T01:08:24.918-05:002011-02-15T01:08:24.918-05:00Discreet. What do you think about Dialed In ?Discreet. What do you think about Dialed In ?Stevennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-8531439829093926032011-02-14T22:52:25.890-05:002011-02-14T22:52:25.890-05:00DC, that WAS a nice pre-debut post. Is Beyer real...DC, that WAS a nice pre-debut post. Is Beyer really that inconsistent & subjective? (This isn't a rhetorical question. I don't look at his #s so I don't know.)<br /><br />Not that they never make a mistake, but I'll go by Sheets #s on this one. While they are projection based, their variants are less squishy (they don't change every race) than the 'Graphs.' Sometimes, "reputation horses" really get exposed.<br /><br />By the way, Steven, I do agree that Denman needs to refresh his material, although he is good at conveying the flow of the race. <br /><br />As for command of the language, if Jason Blewett (the "Jimmy Olsen" of NYRA's TV show) ever goes national, they might as well pile all the grammar and usage books in the country and light a match.<br /><br />TVG's "Mr. B" cracked me up a few weeks ago by earnestly calling that horrid maiden claimer Persephone, "PURR-si-fone." If only he weren't on so much, he could be almost charming in his ignorance. Maybe they could put some fake sideburns on him, teach him a few cockney expressions, let him borrow one of Brent Sager's suits and have him stand in for Mutton Chops at the BC. Blimey, my persephone's ringing again!steve in nchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04061356872686618093noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-53250106178217575322011-02-14T21:09:29.638-05:002011-02-14T21:09:29.638-05:00Speaking of Brethren, here's a post of mine th...Speaking of Brethren, here's a post of mine that i'm pretty proud of:<br /><br />http://www.horseracingtalk.com/horse-racing-forum/new-star-pletcher-11418.htmlDiscreetPickshttp://www.DiscreetPicks.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-15023547101706320442011-02-14T21:02:50.836-05:002011-02-14T21:02:50.836-05:00Btw, someone on HRT mentioned this morning that Br...Btw, someone on HRT mentioned this morning that Brethren had been given an 83 Beyer for his win in the Sam Davis on Saturday. <br /><br />I just have one question. If Pletcher had chosen to run Uncle Mo instead of Brethren, and Uncle Mo had run an identical race to the one that Brethren ran, would Uncle Mo have been given an 83 Beyer?DiscreetPickshttp://www.DiscreetPicks.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-75072525805367043682011-02-14T20:58:46.135-05:002011-02-14T20:58:46.135-05:00A long time ago, pre-internet, i used to call DRF&...A long time ago, pre-internet, i used to call DRF's toll number and listen to the stretch call of races that i had bet on. The only guy that gave me a problem was Battaglia. I'd be sitting there with the phone in my ear thinking, "WTF is going on?". It was practically indecipherable.DiscreetPickshttp://www.DiscreetPicks.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-72575257319342607892011-02-14T08:45:30.859-05:002011-02-14T08:45:30.859-05:00Durkin is still on top but I enjoy Collmus.
One g...Durkin is still on top but I enjoy Collmus.<br /><br />One guy from a minor league track who makes the call an exciting one with a sense of humor mixed in is Tony Calo at Finger LakesSaratogaSpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05181152277681879529noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-5745672995511952042011-02-14T08:43:39.264-05:002011-02-14T08:43:39.264-05:00Grunder is unbelievably bad. I agree. Mostly it&...Grunder is unbelievably bad. I agree. Mostly it's his voice that's the problem. It would be more pleansant listening to fingernails on a chalkboard. Yes Battags is also horrible. And I agree that Miramadi guy on TVG does a nice job, though overall I prefer the format at HRTV mostly because I don't have to listen to Matt Carruthers, although Joanne Jones could use a hit of cocaine or something because that lady is awfully blase. It's too bad because she's kind of hot. -jpAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-13659577817143719662011-02-14T00:58:47.131-05:002011-02-14T00:58:47.131-05:00Beyer on Grunder :
Watching races isn't helpe...Beyer on Grunder : <br />Watching races isn't helped by the cluster of trees that obscure the start of all 61/2- and 7-furlong sprints. (Sorry, tree huggers, but they need to go.) Nor is following the action helped by the race calls of Richard Grunder, the track's announcer. Grunder makes countless mistakes, but ever more maddening than his race-calling errors are his daily assaults on the English language.<br /><br />In race after race he mispronounces words and proper names that ought to be in the vocabulary of the average 10th-grader. He has even managed to mispronounce the names of the horses Deny and Awe ("Denny" and "Ah-wee.") When a horse fell in the stretch run of a race a week ago, Grunder called, "Sunday Delight has went down!"Stevennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-35155717250198637452011-02-13T21:06:09.764-05:002011-02-13T21:06:09.764-05:00I may stay there this Saturday until the bitter en...I may stay there this Saturday until the bitter end just to see what it's like...gotta be a good blog post, no?Teresahttp://www.brooklynbackstretch.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-23886138082387954832011-02-13T18:04:37.749-05:002011-02-13T18:04:37.749-05:00Durkin and Denman are excellent and Colmus is impr...Durkin and Denman are excellent and Colmus is improving. By far the worst is Battaglia.<br /><br />Is Yonkers any more honest than back in the day? I was a big harness fan in the 70s until it became obvious that horses roaring with pace would pass up chances to get out and be kept bottled inside to guarantee a loss until a better price the following week. And then Filion & crew were indicted.<br /><br />When purses get so low that drivers can make more betting than in their share of purses, there is a dangerous incentive.steve in nchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04061356872686618093noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-83856200934571320372011-02-13T15:44:06.546-05:002011-02-13T15:44:06.546-05:00Tampa Bay's announcer's name is Richard Gr...Tampa Bay's announcer's name is Richard Grunder and is very near the worst I've ever heard. <br /><br />Andy Beyer has an article, in the Washington Post on Feb 10, The Last Time I Checked, and takes Grunder to task. One of the comments for the article from Havjoy(?)is priceless. "The owners love the way he singles them out on occasions and it is the owners who put on the show."<br /><br />RGAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-74522279614255962762011-02-13T14:23:42.285-05:002011-02-13T14:23:42.285-05:00Track announcers ? Durkin is so far ahead of every...Track announcers ? Durkin is so far ahead of every one else, its depressing. Yes, most are just plain awful. Larry Collmus is decent, but not great. The guy at Hawthorne sounds like the announcer from the Flintstone's when they went to the track. The guy from Tampa has energy, but I don't like his voice. <br />Luke Kruytbosch was excellent, but past away at 47. <br />I like Vic Stauffer at Hollywood Park, but Trevor repeats the same thing over and over.Stevennoreply@blogger.com