tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post6771981012339605458..comments2024-03-05T05:38:22.024-05:00Comments on Left at the Gate: Picking LosersAlan Mannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12570505944559196118noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-52770540779087365542009-02-08T16:20:00.000-05:002009-02-08T16:20:00.000-05:00I agree in general with the value of evaluating th...I agree in general with the value of evaluating the chalk, but if they're giving 8-1 on my first or second pick, I'm down regardless of what I think of the chalk, and See More Spirit (I had posted on him before the race) was my top play.<BR/><BR/>I think this is a good race to question concepts like "outclassed." Whether on Beyer or Sheets, he was fast enough and his last race was a recovery back toward his good races. He did look better on Sheets than Beyer because he is often wide, and Sheets players gave him an extra point credit for dropping the 5 lbs with the apprentice.<BR/><BR/>I confess the only time I even consider class is the MSW to MClm drop, or a big claiming drop making me question a horse's form. Not that Friday was a day to brag about; See More Spirit was my only winner.steve in nchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04061356872686618093noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-68884640881915236482009-02-08T13:28:00.000-05:002009-02-08T13:28:00.000-05:00It's a known fact that favorites don't win most ra...It's a known fact that favorites don't win most races. Especially, the cheaper you go. Yesterday at GP in a 6250 claimer (It was Calder at GP day yesterday)the favorite was bet down to even money. I said to my wife, "How anyone can bet an even money fave in a 6.25k claimer is beyond me." The winner came in at 8-1, thank you very much.<BR/><BR/>I set my own odds on contenders and then watch for the one's I believe to be overlaid. Then, depending on the odds and the size of my win bet, I'll take my overlaid play and back-wheel him in the exact with my other contenders.Chalk Eating Weaselhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00271186974681711780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-45425212133118526532009-02-08T07:35:00.000-05:002009-02-08T07:35:00.000-05:00There are many ways to play the game, and I do the...There are many ways to play the game, and I do the opposite.<BR/><BR/>I look for legitamate favorites that are not underlays, and either bet them straight or try to find value by hooking up with another horse in straight EX or DD.<BR/><BR/>So Alan, we rarely play the same race but we agree, percieved value should be the goal and discipline the key.<BR/><BR/>This is the same reason folks play behind the come line in craps or double down in black jack, lowering the house odds using skill.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-56834319220511137772009-02-07T17:29:00.000-05:002009-02-07T17:29:00.000-05:00I agree. Most handicappers focus on betting strat...I agree. Most handicappers focus on betting strategy. It's all moot if you can't pick the losers out and narrow down the potential winners to just a few per field.The Turkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-14808936576800732372009-02-07T14:09:00.000-05:002009-02-07T14:09:00.000-05:00Very difficult game, I think it just can't be mast...Very difficult game, I think it just can't be mastered on a consistent basis (and why so many folks can't understand it and simply head to the racino and push the slots button all day) but I agree with your angle. Especially if you tend to get overwhelmed with information , if you concentrate on the favorite to throw out, the information becomes more manageable and i think..more bettable.SaratogaSpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05181152277681879529noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-49561612883770726632009-02-07T12:43:00.000-05:002009-02-07T12:43:00.000-05:00Great points, duely noted.Great points, duely noted.Amateurcapperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10982902236844905767noreply@blogger.com