tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post6875020708589861319..comments2024-03-05T05:38:22.024-05:00Comments on Left at the Gate: Wednesday Morning News and NotesAlan Mannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12570505944559196118noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-29514598018946178532014-04-02T22:40:48.218-04:002014-04-02T22:40:48.218-04:00From the quote provided, its clear they DO have th...From the quote provided, its clear they DO have the data by class, so why not provide? <br /><br />Whatever happened to transparency?<br />Release the data, let the world determine if it is statistically significant. <br /><br />If in fact there is not enough data to make is statistically significant, caveat the release by stating that it is preliminary and requires more study.<br /> <br />Five years worth of data should be enough to begin making general class comparisons by purse level. <br /><br />If there is enough data to release by three different distances there should be enough to release by three levels of purse, say 40+, 20-39, and -20.Figlessnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-84004777649719257622014-04-02T16:38:57.463-04:002014-04-02T16:38:57.463-04:00Alan,
Can't compare cheap horses at GG, WO, TP...Alan,<br />Can't compare cheap horses at GG, WO, TP, AP with Beu, WRD, Fon, PRM, etc.<br /><br />Until I see a correlation of breakdown vs. purse value, I won't be convinced.ljknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-50227286688596777922014-04-02T11:23:02.400-04:002014-04-02T11:23:02.400-04:00Way too many breakdowns, but, I suspect, not enoug...Way too many breakdowns, but, I suspect, not enough to generate statistically meaningful figures once you start slicing up the sample into ever-smaller variable groups. One rational way to get better data -- which of course won't happen since it's rational -- would be for a bunch of the low-end tracks to close, so that the number of racing days nationally would drop by the same percentage that the foal crop has already fallen. That might fix the breakdown rate too, as well as avoiding cards like this past Monday's at Aqueduct, which averaged barely more than 5 betting interests per race.Steve Zornhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00290710261555708639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-8481056954875738382014-04-02T10:02:29.426-04:002014-04-02T10:02:29.426-04:00More from the DRF article:
"The 2013 data al...More from the DRF article:<br /><br />"The 2013 data also continued to show that the fatality rate in races run at distances shorter than six furlongs was higher than the rates for longer races. In 2013, horses suffered fatalities in those sub-six-furlong sprints at a rate of 2.39 per 1,000 starts, compared with a rate of 1.39 in races longer than one mile. The 1.39 rate in 2013 may have been an outlier, however, because it was sharply lower than the 1.80 rate in 2012 and well below the five-year average of 1.75 for the longest races.<br /><br />The fatality rate among 2-year-old runners shot up in 2013 to 1.63 per 1,000 starts, from 1.39 in 2012 and well above the five-year average of 1.41, but still below the fatality rate for 3-year-olds and for horses 4 years old or older. Horses 4 years old or older continued to show the highest fatality rate among all age groups, at 2.00 per 1,000 starts, while 3-year-olds had an overall fatality rate of 1.87 per 1,000 starts.<br /><br />The data released on Monday was broken out into only three categories: surface, distance, and age. Dr. Tim Parkin, the epidemiologist hired to conduct analysis of the data, is looking at many more categories of data, including class of horse and type of race, in the hopes of identifying reliable factors that would give regulators, horsemen, and track officials the capability of identifying horses that may be at high risk of injury."Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06878368504418249260noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-53561679135680161632014-04-02T10:01:13.115-04:002014-04-02T10:01:13.115-04:00Fair points....but there are some pretty really ba...Fair points....but there are some pretty really bad horses that race at Golden Gate, Presque Isle, Turfway, Woodbine, and even Arlington too.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06878368504418249260noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-52301540088052325392014-04-02T09:33:47.995-04:002014-04-02T09:33:47.995-04:00Apologize for multiple posts.
If they want us to ...Apologize for multiple posts.<br /><br />If they want us to take the stats seriously its time they provide more detail which they obviously have.<br /><br />Give us the rate on synth and dirt for non-claiming races with a purse of 40k or more, broken down by distance, for example.<br /><br />Don't just lob apples and oranges and (a lot of) lemons into one basket and call it "significant".<br /><br />End of rant.Figlessnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-25618591084901905462014-04-02T09:19:48.244-04:002014-04-02T09:19:48.244-04:00El Angelo, sorry to steal your thought.
Whenever...El Angelo, sorry to steal your thought. <br /><br />Whenever I post this on other sites I get push back that the synth tracks include Turfway and Presque Isle and Golden Gate, but at best they make up 40% of synthetic starters vs. 60% at top class facilities.<br /><br />There are literally 100 dirt tracks taking part, and I doubt more than 20% of the total starters occur at top class tracks.<br /><br />This is a huge statistical difference, yet we keep getting press releases spouting the statistically significant benefit to Synth.<br /><br />Sometimes it reads like a drug trial where the Pharma industry is paying for the study.Figlessnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-85146415181560477052014-04-02T09:10:00.121-04:002014-04-02T09:10:00.121-04:00PPS - two other factors;
1) The push back from tr...PPS - two other factors;<br /><br />1) The push back from trainers who are seeing an increase in soft tissue injuries on Synth, especially hind end. While most of these don't show up as on track breakdowns many end a horse career.<br /><br />2) Money - tracks were promised the cost of installing Synth would be recovered from decreased maintenance costs that never materialized.Figlessnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-42379155660161612302014-04-02T09:03:52.608-04:002014-04-02T09:03:52.608-04:00Figless stole my point. Synthetic tracks, by and ...Figless stole my point. Synthetic tracks, by and large, have only been installed at better tracks with better horses where the breakdown rate is likely to be lower. Take the lower-tier tracks out of the equation and I'd love to see the stats.El Angelohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-50240996737403696942014-04-02T09:03:03.466-04:002014-04-02T09:03:03.466-04:00Speaking of which I hope NYRA resists the temptati...Speaking of which I hope NYRA resists the temptation to speed up the surface for the Wood.<br /><br />I suspect the eventual Derby favorite may emerge from this race and it would be nice if we could actually get that horse to the starting gate in four weeks.Figlessnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-27442558811854949332014-04-02T08:59:11.997-04:002014-04-02T08:59:11.997-04:00Part of the reason for the trend back toward dirt ...Part of the reason for the trend back toward dirt is the underlying data that indicates sprint racing and racing class are the best indicators for higher breakdown rates. Far more sprint and cheap races are run on dirt thereby negatively impacting their overall rating. In addition there are far more cheap dirt racetracks in the study than there are high quality tracks, further creating the disparity.<br /><br />And with the increased focus on safety the top class dirt tracks are trending in the right direction, especially NYRA.<br /><br />I compared five years synthetic stats at KEE to dirt at Saratoga, and the fatality rate is almost identical at 1 in 1,000. We can all agree this is a fair comparison of racing class and there is zero statistical difference. <br /><br />If you peruse the individual track information for those voluntarily reporting their data (and kudos to them for their transparency, especially the lower class tracks where rates are high) it quickly becomes obvious that cheap dirt sprints for older horses are the main offenders, no surprise to anyone with a smidgeon of common sense.<br /><br />When I have more time I plan to compare all of the first class synth tracks with the same number of top dirt tracks, I strongly suspect the difference will be insignificant especially the last few years when more emphasis has been placed on safety.<br /><br />The legacy of they synth movement may well be safer dirt tracks since the attention it brought forced management to take their racing surfaces seriously. <br />Figlessnoreply@blogger.com