tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post8910153756729818971..comments2024-03-05T05:38:22.024-05:00Comments on Left at the Gate: Alternative Take on BC BiasAlan Mannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12570505944559196118noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-13426507414071401492007-11-01T09:21:00.000-04:002007-11-01T09:21:00.000-04:00When one great horse overcomes a bias, it can stil...When one great horse overcomes a bias, it can still be considered a bias. When Curlin, Octave, Midnight Lute and Pyro all overcome a so-called "bias" to run good races from off the pace, I have my doubts. <BR/>______________<BR/>rotopro.comAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-72868069056293925812007-10-31T14:00:00.000-04:002007-10-31T14:00:00.000-04:00>>And of course, you have Curlin who is awesome bu...>>And of course, you have Curlin who is awesome but if there's a true bias he doesn't win.<BR/><BR/>Roto - don't know if I agree with that. I believe that great horses can and do overcome even true biases.Alan Mannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12570505944559196118noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-26790647553722767142007-10-31T13:58:00.000-04:002007-10-31T13:58:00.000-04:00I would have had a winning BC day if I had just ke...I would have had a winning BC day if I had just kept Dylan Thomas out of all my bets for that race. Shamdinan was the one horse I wanted to put in there after DT, English Channel and Red Rocks. But everything I was inundated with kept convincing me, "You HAVE to put DT in there!" I should have went with my gut on that one. $282 $1 trifecta! Why o why didn't I just place that one bet....? Sad!forego is my witnesshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04785998054727075723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-30969371775041703462007-10-31T12:37:00.000-04:002007-10-31T12:37:00.000-04:00I wouldn't be shocked if there was a small bias ea...I wouldn't be shocked if there was a small bias early in the card and then when the rain stopped, the track began to play more fair to closers. Besides Midnight Lute from off the pace, you also had Octave coming from way out of it then hanging a bit like she always does. In the Classic, Street Sense rallied well on the inside and stopped, probably because he's a tired horse from a long campaign. And of course, you have Curlin who is awesome but if there's a true bias he doesn't win.<BR/><BR/>The biggest argument for a bias was War Pass going 45 and 2/5ths and coming home for a 113 beyer. An amazing performance by a 2yo under any circumstances, but even in this race, Pyro was able to come from well out of it and run well. <BR/><BR/>And yes, Hard Spun is a bargain at $50k. He will go on to be one of the greatest sires of the next 20 years. His connections were also vindicated in the end for pointing him to the Classic.<BR/>__________________________<BR/>www.rotopro.comAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-76089748569929348992007-10-31T11:41:00.000-04:002007-10-31T11:41:00.000-04:00brett - AGS may not be headed for the breeding she...brett - AGS may not be headed for the breeding shed. If he was, he probably would have had his stud fee announced already like the other Darley horses. Looks like he may be the Sheikh's big horse for next year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-57711358075862434942007-10-31T11:17:00.000-04:002007-10-31T11:17:00.000-04:00I also turned big on L. Jones and Hard Spun like y...I also turned big on L. Jones and Hard Spun like you did Alan. Hard Spun really showed himself last weekend and of all the horses that are retiring right now I wish him and AGS would not go to the breeding shed.Bretthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07847114098891496678noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-81333650775260239252007-10-31T07:41:00.000-04:002007-10-31T07:41:00.000-04:00Not to mention the fact that Hard Spun can slot in...Not to mention the fact that Hard Spun can slot into the Danzig/Danehill mold -- Street Sense doesn't have that same appeal since his sire is very much alive and kicking.Superfectahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13160193760814449962noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-44750189429482628912007-10-31T01:14:00.000-04:002007-10-31T01:14:00.000-04:00Kudos to you for giving Larry Jones a much deserve...Kudos to you for giving Larry Jones a much deserved atta' boy.<BR/><BR/>Thank goodness I never had to do an about face after all the sh* I talked about Discreet Cat -- that's a lot of crow to eat.<BR/><BR/>Of the new sires, I think Hard Spun may end up being the best deal. Graded Stakes winner at both routes and sprints, on dirt and polytrack, runner up in the Derby and BC Classic. On the board in the Preakness... beat Street Sense at Turfway... too bad they never raced him on the Turf.Michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06801414754458604594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-19134677536829481412007-10-31T01:12:00.000-04:002007-10-31T01:12:00.000-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06801414754458604594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-36945324725474665162007-10-31T00:25:00.000-04:002007-10-31T00:25:00.000-04:00I remain unconvinced there was much of a bias but ...I remain unconvinced there was much of a bias but I don't think there is any doubt that 'some' horses didn't run their races over the muddy track. The problem is deciding which ones REALLY disliked the course and which just didn't show up. I note that almost every trainer of a lower priced also-ran cited the 'didn't handle the track' excuse. For some this is likely to be true but how does one really tell? We can compare their previous wet track form (if they have any), their breeding preferences for slop, their action on the track, but it is still mostly conjecture. As a related comment, it always seems ironic to me when the Europeans ship over for the Breeder's Cup and then encounter softer grounder because I think they generally ship horses that prefer (or at least handle well) firmer ground. That didn't beat Dylan Thomas but a tough Arc, shortish layoff, trans-Atlantic ship and the going to the BC Turf as an after-thought (great sporting gesture yes, but probably not the best way to prep for the race) probably did. Must say I thought 4/5 on him was a staggering expression of faith in his ability to overcome these obstacles.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-68709951123881110322007-10-30T23:41:00.000-04:002007-10-30T23:41:00.000-04:00Yes, Hard Spun proved his worth on Saturday. He w...Yes, Hard Spun proved his worth on Saturday. He won the King's Bishop against a horse, Bobby Frankel's, which was conditioned specifically to try and deny Hard Spun's connections the $15 mil bonus they won.<BR/><BR/>Hard Spun would have won the Mile and 70 yards. He would have also won the Sprint.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-8173947804930385682007-10-30T23:02:00.000-04:002007-10-30T23:02:00.000-04:00Holy cow! Alan praising Hard Spun…my jaw just hit ...Holy cow! Alan praising Hard Spun…my jaw just hit the ground. LOL!<BR/><BR/>Seriously, $75,000 for Street Sense or $50,000 for Hard Spun? I would happily be a bargain hunter there. However, Stormello for $15,000? Pass...Valerie Grashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02696887655473752690noreply@blogger.com