tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post9050397774076838974..comments2024-03-05T05:38:22.024-05:00Comments on Left at the Gate: Numbers GameAlan Mannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12570505944559196118noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-71121373978457646592010-12-29T16:30:16.876-05:002010-12-29T16:30:16.876-05:00There can't be a next time if there isn't ...There can't be a next time if there isn't a first time. Can the industry ignore us any more than they already are? We have to make them START listening with a successful show of strength which must be measured in number of participants and not just in percentage of handle reduced.<br /><br /><br /><br />Well said.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-8933947041740913202010-12-29T13:44:04.919-05:002010-12-29T13:44:04.919-05:00"Not to get off track, but, given does anyone..."Not to get off track, but, given does anyone know how the takeout increase for handle that goes through ADW's and simulcasts is actually supposed to get into purses? Isn't the fee for the signal fixed by contract?"<br /><br />I believe that half the takeout increase will be eaten by Cali racing and half by the Adws. So, the Adws will get half the increase for their bottom line.... unless they want to rebate it back to you (I jest!)<br /><br />Players on track or in CA pay the full price.<br /><br />Thanks,<br /><br />HANA<br />PS: That is why you see the ontrack numbers at Los Al go down more than the ADw handle. The ontrackers paid full juice.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-28568580377709976322010-12-29T13:00:03.501-05:002010-12-29T13:00:03.501-05:00Hi Fig,
"HANA- Why would you not at least tr...Hi Fig,<br /><br />"HANA- Why would you not at least try some of the positive steps Steve suggests?<br /><br />A HANA race of the day(or week, perhaps their Saturday Feature Race) for instance, at a low takeout track.<br /><br />We did that for some time - from April 2009 for several months. I think we had ten of them? A couple of players ran the list and away we went.<br /><br />Jerry Brown gave out free thorograph sheets for the races, BRis gave out PPs. There was a lot of help from the community.<br /><br />We had a good time. And several tracks talked about "lowering the take on one pool" because of them (which now some tracks are doing). The members who ran it had real lives and the time involved was consuming, so after some success we stopped. The HANA board (about five people) were working on Euqibase scratches and changes, reporting uniform payouts and probables, a vet database for offenders - there was a lot on the table.<br /><br />That's the history of that! If members wanted to start one up and run with it, we'd be game. But we have a lot (much more than the boycott only) going on and we have only a few hands on deck.<br /><br />Thanks,<br /><br />HANAAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-72624017160133639762010-12-29T12:17:43.044-05:002010-12-29T12:17:43.044-05:00For some reason, this post was previously accepted...For some reason, this post was previously accepted, but never appeared. I'll try again.<br /><br />Steve in nc,<br />Perhaps I'm misreading your posts, but it sounds as if you would support the boycott if every single one of your concerns were addressed to your satisfaction. One thing I have learned is that 100% agreement among horseplayers is unattainable. I don't know any player who isn't in favor of payoffs to the penny, but I do know that total reform in all areas is too much to ask for the first time around. That said, you've identified several important issues.<br /><br />I too was concerned that recreational, smaller bankroll bettors might not benefit at the same time -- or to the same extent -- as professional, larger bankroll bettors. I'm satisfied that both groups would benefit in this case. Unrebated players will bear the brunt of the impending increase, both in and out of state. Also, since California residents cannot currently get rebates comparable to those available to some out-of-state residents, we are forced to play at a competitive disadvantage not only against heavily-rebated whales and/or professional players, but against moderately-rebated recreational bettors as well. <br /><br />The target of this boycott isn't Santa Anita as much as it is the existing regulatory model for California racing that gives horsemen unjustifiable and unrestrained control over wagering as well as equine aspects of the business. I doubt you can identify another MAJOR LEAGUE racing jurisdiction where the interests of horseman and horseplayer are so out of balance<br /><br />CHRB and TOC policies and practices consistently ignore the desires of the customers of California racing, and are too often implemented with a mixture of arrogance and incompetence that can't be allowed to continue. Don't take my word for it. Read the transcript of the CHRB board meeting the day the Governor signed the takeout increase bill.<br /><br />Indeed, other racing jurisdictions have also raised takeout to unacceptable levels, but not in a down economy, not with such disparity of impact, and not while displaying such disrespect toward those they negatively impacted. Incredibly, this exhibit of their newly-prioritized mission of "promoting racing" over "protecting the betting public" was only the latest in a series of stunning missteps.<br /><br /><i>Steve wrote, "... And if my feeling that most horseplayers are going to shrug their shoulders at this is right, the industry will ignore us that much more completely the next time we speak up. ..."</i><br /><br />There can't be a next time if there isn't a first time. Can the industry ignore us any more than they already are? We have to make them START listening with a successful show of strength which must be measured in number of participants and not just in percentage of handle reduced.<br /><br />Where exactly should industry reform start? When will sufficient outrage again be generated to motivate unity? It's doubtful that any industry decision-making body other than the current CHRB will ever repeat their foot-in-mouth foolishness. Timing is everything. Even those who aren't directly affected by the issue should appreciate the value in striking while the iron is hot and the justification for corrective action unmistakable, if not undeniable. <br /><br /><i>Steve wrote, "... The biggest bar to any growth in the player base is the perception that the game is rigged by cheaters. ..."</i><br /><br />You may be right and, again, I don't know anyone who doesn't consider it a problem to some extent. But it's only one reason (excuse?) why newbies feel they can't win. Also, players can't directly monitor compliance with their wishes in that area as they can with takeout.<br /><br />I hope you'll bring your thoughtful concerns to the movement.Indultonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-74770180729357247372010-12-29T12:12:22.560-05:002010-12-29T12:12:22.560-05:00Not to get off track, but, given does anyone know ...Not to get off track, but, given does anyone know how the takeout increase for handle that goes through ADW's and simulcasts is actually supposed to get into purses? Isn't the fee for the signal fixed by contract?BitPlayerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07763012366955898364noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-67736349869211801102010-12-29T09:24:20.120-05:002010-12-29T09:24:20.120-05:00Alan,
You are truly a worthy opponent. Your spin i...Alan,<br />You are truly a worthy opponent. Your spin is as interesting as any out there, but you are merely annoyed, whereas we are outraged. What level of industry injustice might move you to seek reform? What was your reaction to the Braulio Baeza debacle?<br /><br />This blog is a gathering place for many whose hearts and perceptive minds the boycott needs to succeed. I wish the impressive anonymous posts here were submitted with pseudonyms that would enable me to relate a body of work to an individual contributor, like steve in nc. Much of my preceding response to him was intended for you as well. <br /><br />I revere Santa Anita as I do Saratoga as enablers of entertaining experiences I would like to see enjoyed by future generations. But the increasing probability of diminishing bankroll combined with the declining quality of racing at both venues (and the deteriorating facilities at Saratoga) are deterrents to that happening. Customer satisfaction must become the priority at these venues to avoid their extinction.<br /><br />Effective horseplayer representation could help reverse racing’s downward spiral. Greater participation by concerned players capable of expanding HANA leadership and making it more accountable to -– and representative of – its membership, would also increase its capacity to address additional player issues.<br /><br />So allow me to paraphrase you. Don’t support the boycott if you don’t want to, but let the rest of us take the first step toward what we believe will improve our lot.Indultonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-41601233175736424292010-12-29T08:49:20.956-05:002010-12-29T08:49:20.956-05:00DP, what I saw was a washed out, rock hard, speed/...DP, what I saw was a washed out, rock hard, speed/rail bias creating ridiculous track records over a completely new surface.<br /><br />I dont think The Factor is the best two year old ever to run 5.5f at Santa Anita.<br /><br />Twirling Candy did prove he can handle dirt, as did his half brother Sydney, but do not underestimate how much they were helped by my mush :-)<br /><br />Most importantly, there were no breakdowns over the first two days after a once a decade rain storm, which bodes well for the future of this surface.<br /><br />This thrills me to no end since I have been a big proponent of installing brand new modern dirt surfaces (including the base) instead of AWT.Figlessnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-20971525268717122642010-12-29T08:42:08.735-05:002010-12-29T08:42:08.735-05:00HANA- Why would you not at least try some of the p...HANA- Why would you not at least try some of the positive steps Steve suggests?<br /><br />A HANA race of the day(or week, perhaps their Saturday Feature Race) for instance, at a low takeout track.<br /><br />I think it is a great idea and would participate.Figlessnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-46401606356956628972010-12-29T08:34:27.524-05:002010-12-29T08:34:27.524-05:00DiscreetPicks - Yeah, I know, sorry. If I wasn...DiscreetPicks - Yeah, I know, sorry. If I wasn't spending so much time digging out of two feet of snow, I would have gotten to the actual races.....and maybe even mentioned that you picked both The Factor and Twirling Candy! And by the way, I mentioned that the latter was worth a bet against as the favorite....not so of course at 7-2.alannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-34442672068492637762010-12-29T01:50:27.541-05:002010-12-29T01:50:27.541-05:00Steve,
Thanks for the post.
On the HANA site the...Steve,<br /><br />Thanks for the post.<br /><br />On the HANA site the goals are listed and a proper drug policy, uniform and fair for both participants and bettors is listed as one. There are several others.<br /><br />Just a note on the 'boycott'. It is not being done to hurt anyone (over 20% of HANA members own horses, we have trainers and grooms too). The history of it is long, but in general, as was posted on the Paulick Report by a wagering economist "there is not one study done that says takeout in racing is too low". All say to increase handles and money for purses (ie optimal takeout) it should be lowered.<br /><br />So when the takeout increase at Los Al happened, Barry Meadow who is a HANA board member (you might know him, he wrote "Money Secrets at the Racetrack among others) and Jeff Platt went to present some numbers. They were not given the time of day.<br /><br />When handle at Los Al dropped 30%, they went again. They were told the decrease was not about takeout, it was because of "weather and people watching the olympics."<br /><br />They then raised it in tbred racing, amongst the protest. We hope the boycott sheds light on the practices going on there, and positive change can happen.<br /><br />If you go to the HANA blog now, you can see what happened at Los Al 2010 as we have graphs up of what happened. That track is a shadow of itself - less dates, less handle, less customers.<br /><br />We dont want that to happen to tbred racing, so eventho they have glossed it up as a "field size increase measure", it will hurt everyone in the long run, just like Los Al. We dont want to see that happen there.<br /><br />Anyway, thanks for taking time to look into our group.<br /><br />HANAhananoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-69477723868620018252010-12-29T01:39:17.166-05:002010-12-29T01:39:17.166-05:00Twirling Candy won the Malibu in track-record time...Twirling Candy won the Malibu in track-record time, while Baffert's well-regarded 2yo The Factor set faster splits in his maiden win than did Malibu pacesetters Alcindor and Smiling Tiger. <br /><br />And yet, no mention of either of those things in Alan's post, or in any the 20+ responses??? Come on, guys. Very interesting results on Opening Day.DiscreetPickshttp://www.DiscreetPicks.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-41537180769311632702010-12-28T23:51:55.789-05:002010-12-28T23:51:55.789-05:00I am glad to see HANA here. Thank you for reading...I am glad to see HANA here. Thank you for reading and posting. I confess I didn't even know about HANA until this bruhaha, maybe because I play almost exclusively online now just because of geography.<br /><br />I think this percentage dispute is less a matter of intentional distortion and more a matter of which end of the telescope one is looking at. Macro view - the one that impacts the industry - is the bigger percentage and the $19k deducted from the excta pool that Alan calculated. Micro view - the one that impacts me as a horseplayer - is the $2 less on $1 exacta that used to pay 100-1. they're both valid views.<br /><br />HANA, since you're reading, here's my 2 cents (which many who post here think is usually worth a lot less):<br /><br />The biggest bar to any growth in the player base is the perception that the game is rigged by cheaters. A serious effort to introduce and enforce a total drug clean up would enjoy broad support nationally among players and would resonate with sports fans more generally, the media, politicians and the public. <br /><br />So I think you've bet a lot of chips on the wrong issue. But since you're committed at this point...<br /><br />Add positive, unifying action steps to the negativity of a boycott. For example, pick a midweek day when more of the handle comes from regulars, and promote a "California Wins" day, asking people all over the country to play SA, but only in the win pool with it's low vig. See if you can show that HANA members can change the ratio of handle between the win & exotic pools.<br /><br />Or pick a different track - one with really low takeout, and promote one day to see if HANA members can significantly boost the handle.<br /><br />These are positive ways to show strength and unity, and only by demonstrating that will horseplayers ever get even a small voice at the decision-making table.<br /><br />I respect you for speaking up and acting even if we have a tactical disagreement. And we horseplayers make a lifestyle of betting against and arguing with each other. Tough group to organize! I'm playing AQ tomorrow, and I invite all CA boycotters to do the same. With NY racing, we need to make sure the patient will live before we start removing its warts and correcting its bad habits.steve in nchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04061356872686618093noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-75147017382418582562010-12-28T21:57:34.344-05:002010-12-28T21:57:34.344-05:00sorry I ran it 3 times guys, I got confused. Cali...sorry I ran it 3 times guys, I got confused. California Racing, do you have an employment application?markinsacnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-50914173184348439932010-12-28T21:55:00.206-05:002010-12-28T21:55:00.206-05:00CALILFORNICATION:
Let me mix racing and politics....CALILFORNICATION:<br /><br />Let me mix racing and politics. I'd be willing to place a large wager that most people in racing management are Republicans. Republicans are the party of big business and their mantra is lower taxes equal economic growth. So what do these bigwigs in California do? They RAISE taxes. and not only do they RAISE taxes. AND AT A TIME WHEN CONSUMERS ARE PRICE SHOPPING. THIS IS A RECIPE FOR DISASTER! Here are some tracks that have actually LOWERED TAKEOUT, ONLY LOS ALAMITOS AND CALIFORNIA THOROUGHBREDS HAVE RAISED THE TAKEOUT.<br /><br />What is the most troubling thing is Los Alamitos raised the takeout over a year ago and has seen a 20-25% drop in handle. Now the guys running the thorougbreds figured that they would do the same there and raise the purses figuring the handles would be the same. Los Alamitos was an abberation.<br /><br />Furthermore, the internet changed everything. Suddenly gambling is at your fingertips. The Santa Anita president claimed "Only the top-point one percent of the players even know what takeout is". I think he's saying only .1% or one out of every thousans horse players know what the takeout is. OK, you are the president of Santa Anita. Have you ever done a survey of players on this? Or are you just guessing. But even if the number of players knowing takeout is low, say 5% or less, what about their subconteous? Even the degenerate gambler will go where he can last longer on his given stake. If going to the track with let's say $100 and it lasts an average 2 hours, while a <br />$100 playing online poker lasts an average of 12 hours, where is the degenerate going to turn to more often? I work in the gambling business and SOOOOOOOOOO many former horse players say they will NEVER go back. They say nothing about the takeout, they just say they "Never win playing the horses".<br /><br />When the head of C.H.R.B. makes statements like: "We are not in competition with Indian Casinos, we're in competition with the Dodgers!" I have to question HIS credentials to even be in the position he's in. It was one of the most ludicrous statements coming out of California. I don't see a bunch of trifecta players sitting in the bleachers at Dodger Stadium. But to show more dysfunction: Hollywood Park and Santa Anita are about 28 miles apart. Hollywood charges $8 for parking and admission ($8 total). Santa Anita charges $9 total for parking and admission. Hollywood is located near the ocean, meaning not too many people live west of Hollywoood. Santa Anita is located near the mountains, meaning not too many people live north of SA. Neither Santa Anita or Hollywood is located directly on a freeway, there are freeways nearby, but the two tracks cannot be seen from a freeway. Right in between SA and Hollywood is the Commerce Casino, located right smack on interstate 5, the main freeway between downtown L.A. and Orange County. Thousands of cars pass by daily. One could say it's "Centrally located". And what did SA and Hollywood do? They let Commerce Casino have simulcast betting. Players can park for free, get free admission, and if they are having some bad luck, they can go play a hand of blackjack in between races to try to get even or poker too. Why would any player PAY for less? Who allowed this? <br /><br />Indian Casinos are located as close as 45 miles from Santa Anita. They are stealing away customers left and right. The same analogy, free parking, admission, cheaper food and drinks and "more bang for the buck". So what does Santa Anita do? They accept ADVERTISING FROM SAN MANUEL INDIAN CASINO, COMPLETE WITH FREE SLOT PLAY OR MATCH COUPONS! The advertising even has a map on how to get there from Santa Anita. It might as be a one-way map, because the players need not know how to get back to Santa Anita!<br /><br />MY GOODNESS, WHO IS RUNNING THE SHOW AT "CALIFORNIA RACING?"markinsacnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-27995447075025913152010-12-28T21:37:16.608-05:002010-12-28T21:37:16.608-05:00"HANA - Can I please have a pin? :-)"
Y..."HANA - Can I please have a pin? :-)"<br /><br />You have to join and maybe send $20. Then we will. <br /><br />Hey, we need the $20 to pay our huge staff :)<br /><br />We'll be waiting to see your name!:)<br /><br />HANA<br />PS: You don't have to support a boycott effort though. Although 70% of members polled said they support this, we have told everyone on the blog and through mailings that that we respect it is a personal decision for each and every member. No harm, no foul. Horseplayers disagree all the time, and that is not a bad thing.HANAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17545107814723134177noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-51659332541902874762010-12-28T21:17:58.355-05:002010-12-28T21:17:58.355-05:00RG - I got the book as a Xmas present, and will be...RG - I got the book as a Xmas present, and will be reading it on an upcoming trip down to FLA.<br /><br />HANA - Can I please have a pin? :-)alanhttp://grapesandgreens.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-56628486068721727142010-12-28T19:17:03.635-05:002010-12-28T19:17:03.635-05:00About a month ago I figured there would be a 10% b...About a month ago I figured there would be a 10% bounce in handle from the release of the movie Secretariat. If that hasn't happened then maybe the boycott is having a major affect...unless maybe the horseplayers are staying at home trying to work through Lord of Misrule.<br />RGAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-32253840139683753192010-12-28T17:52:31.337-05:002010-12-28T17:52:31.337-05:00And..............NYRA Rewards FINALLY has videostr...And..............NYRA Rewards FINALLY has videostreaming on its site! It debuts on Wednesday! Let's see how this matches up with ADWs such as Twinspires, TVG and Xpressbet.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-30135256362124427762010-12-28T17:36:02.181-05:002010-12-28T17:36:02.181-05:00Alan...one question....If all jockeys organized an...Alan...one question....If all jockeys organized and wouldn't ride unless their winning % was raised from 10%-15%, would the industry say that the jockeys are demanding a 5% increase or a 50% increase.<br /><br />Case closed!ITPnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-33485471459011102112010-12-28T17:35:50.665-05:002010-12-28T17:35:50.665-05:00Thanks Hana,thanks for trying to make this a bigge...Thanks Hana,thanks for trying to make this a bigger and better sport.<br /><br /><br />Alan seems to like the way things are run now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-7019490868937067682010-12-28T17:29:29.132-05:002010-12-28T17:29:29.132-05:00Ef HANAEf HANAAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-5040337467961205002010-12-28T17:00:09.644-05:002010-12-28T17:00:09.644-05:00You did not get a pin? That is rare, because There...You did not get a pin? That is rare, because Theresia keeps an eagle-eye on the books and all contributions and mailouts. <br /><br />I apologize.<br /><br />If you wish: Please send us an email (horseplayersassociation@gmail.com, or info@hanaweb.org) and we will send one out if you still want one. We'll send two, plus a highlghter for not doing it right the first time.<br /><br />Sorry again that we did not get that out to you properly.<br /><br />HANAHANAnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-31419233119223801462010-12-28T16:56:04.057-05:002010-12-28T16:56:04.057-05:00The first time that I visited the HANA web site, s...The first time that I visited the HANA web site, several years ago, I sent them a contribution and expected to receive the advertised pin.<br /><br />Call me small, cynical, and jaded (because I am), but since that experience I have not had much respect for the organization.gib.https://www.blogger.com/profile/11208702284011665276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-23326609601583602392010-12-28T16:40:34.768-05:002010-12-28T16:40:34.768-05:00For the record (and this methodology is one the we...For the record (and this methodology is one the website for those who choose to research, including links to economic journals), the HANA racetrack ratings were done as follows:<br />A phrase like “What makes players play a racetrack” searched in google scholar, yields economic papers and published material as far back as 1973. These journals were looked at and discussed with people who have written them. The factors that contribute to that list, through econometric models were then weighted, based on wagering elasticity. For example, if takeout has an elasticity of -4.0, field size -3.0 and stakes races -2.0 the weightings would reflect that. Those are then placed in a sheet and a HANA board member (an electrical engineer that can actually run macros, as I cant very well) crunches them and the numbers are spit out.<br />The reason this was done was twofold<br />1) Bias elimination. Horseplayers have their own reasons for playing and for many they are different based on personal bias (one likes stakes, one likes short fields because he cashes more often, one likes claimers because she plays trainer moves, another likes the hot dogs at Gulfstream and wont go to the Big A because she dislikes them there, etc), so instead of looking at the anecdotal, we went aggregate.<br />2) To educate the industry on what makes up betting handle according to all the academic research, that HANA feels they do not look at enough.<br />Over time the ratings have evolved and will continue to, but one thing HANA will not do is compromise published economic literature in this matter. If a vetted, universally accepted journal paper is published which shows the price of hot dogs is elastic in terms of horseplayer behavior, it will be added to the ratings as a weighted factor.<br />Thanks for reading. We take positive criticism seriously , and any criticism is welcome, however because we have done every thing we can possibly do mathematically to make the ratings unbiased, we like to address it when it comes up.<br />We also take great pride when a track tries to change to move up the ratings because by doing so, they are not listening to only horseplayers, but decades of published, sound, vetted literature. That is good for the future of our sport.<br /><br />Thanks for reading.<br />HANAHANAhttp://www.horseplayersassociation.org/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-61461435644064039932010-12-28T15:57:03.167-05:002010-12-28T15:57:03.167-05:00Can't wait to bet Gulfstream and the 50c pick5...Can't wait to bet Gulfstream and the 50c pick5 with a 15% takeout.<br /><br />I agree with others that this takeout increase will not help them get bigger fields.<br />One things for sure handle will go down,It's just a matter of how much.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com