Later Than Sooner For Stevie

- Doug O’Neill is quoted in the Albany Times-Union as saying of Stevie Wonderboy: “I don't think he will run again until October or November." That seems more extreme than the 90 days that we originally heard, and would make an appearance in the Breeders’ Cup unlikely. In fact, what other races that deep into the fall would make a return at three worthwhile at all?

In the meantime, Stevie will recuperate from his successful surgery on Merv’s ranch, and Left at the Gate has learned that he is slated to fill in for Vanna White on Wheel of Fortune for a couple of weeks, where he can give his injured ankle some exercise by spinning the wheel. Merv, ever the sportsman told the Times-Union that he wants to set up a match race between Stevie and the Kentucky Derby winner.

"Maybe I shouldn't be broadcasting this so soon," Griffin said from his Los Angeles office, "but I have had the beginnings of an offer. There are some wealthy people out here -- I won't say who they are -- and they are willing to put up $1 million for the race. They're very legit and people who love horse racing."

A lot of things would have to go right for that to happen, and I don’t think that even Janet "Betzky" Jones would want to bet on that proposition.

- The story of NYRA being hit with a tax warrant was, to me, as much of a non-story as one about hockey players betting on football games should be. Yeah, NYRA owes the state money; we all know that, and the debt goes far beyond the $1.125 million owed on pari-mutuels from the end of 2005, a time during which we all knew that the association was on the verge of bankruptcy. Only $5 million of the bailout loan has been released to NYRA thus far, and CEO Charles Hayward said “we're hopeful to set this matter straight once we get the loan." [DRF]

The problem is that bad publicity like this can inspire clueless editorial writers to spout nonsense like this from Westchester’s Journal News:

If Gov. George Pataki and the Legislature needed another reason to get rid of the money-losing clubhouse known as the New York Racing Association, it came Tuesday, when the state slapped the group with a tax warrant for failing to pay $1.25 million in taxes generated at Aqueduct race track in Queens.

Hmm, NYRA…clubhouse, where have I heard that before? Who wrote this crap, Frank Stronach? And since ignorance breeds ignorance, when the uninformed public and know-nothing politicians and their appointees on crucial committees that are to decide the future of racing in the state read stuff like this, they can take it as fact. It can reinforce their misconceptions as to who and what exactly are responsible for the mess, and leave them susceptible to big promises from big spenders, no matter how bad their track record already is.

- Rabbit alert: Spanish Chestnut worked a bullet (out of 37) five furlongs in :58.20 at Santa Anita today. Point of Impact worked another impressive six furlongs, this time in 1:11.80 (2/20).

And our filly Christening breezed a half in :50.13 (20/28).

Lotsa Lotsa Value on Itty Bitty Pretty

- The Grade 1 Las Virgenes for three-year old fillies will be run on Saturday at Santa Anita, and this is the moment for which I’ve been waiting for some time now – to bet against Wild Fit (Wild Wonder) at a short price. I had her in the Breeders’ Cup, and she might very well have been the best filly in the race, but that of course was the Belmont one turn route. Even as I made that bet, I was already plotting to oppose her once she went back to two turns. Her one such effort was an extremely disappointing second at 1-2 to Diamond Omi, the last place finisher in the Juvenile Fillies. Wild Fit stalked a slow pace that day and came up empty in slow closing fractions, earning a mediocre Beyer of 79.

However, none of that may even matter here, because the fact is that figure-wise she’s amongst the slowest fillies in this race; and her spot in the outside eight post at this distance is not ideal. The problem is that with four other stakes winners in the field, and another who missed being one by a nose, she may not even be favored. In fact, she’s didn’t make the top three in the Form’s consensus box. but I’m hoping that the Juv Fillies line in her pp’s will indeed attract a lot of money and create value elsewhere.

And I believe that value can be had on Itty Bitty Pretty (El Corredor). This is not a filly that seems bred to stretch out much, but this is just a mile and she’s already proven she can get a bit longer. She made a big move forward in the mile and a sixteenth San Ysebel, her first race around two turns. With Pat Valenzuela, with whom she’s shown big improvement since he got back on, she was able to sit just a few lengths off a very slow pace, and she zipped home in :31 1/5 for the last 2 1⁄2 furlongs as Valenzuela just held on for the ride after taking her wide around both turns.

This will be a vastly different race than the San Ysebel, but it could set up for her just the same. I don’t think that Victor Espinoza and Corey Nakatani, on Balance (Thunder Gulch) and Meetmeinthewoods (General Meeting) respectively, will allow Diplomat Lady, 39-1 in the Hollywood Starlet, to lead throughout again; so there should be an honest pace up front. It’s entirely possible too that either Balance or Meetmeinthewoods will step up big time and put the field away; these are two fillies with a world of potential. But Itty Bitty Pretty could be 4th choice here, especially if Dance Daily and Talullah Lula, both of whom have shown a marked preference for sprinting, get overbet. Also note the similar workout pattern from prior to her last - the six furlong breeze a week before the race.

If one of the others is to jump up and steal the race up front, I think it will be Balance (Thunder Gulch), who has shown the versatility to lead or stalk. Though Meetmeinthewoods (General Meeting) may ultimately prove to be the best of these, I think she’s in a tough spot on the rail with speed outside of her; and remember this is only her third career race. Of course, a fast pace could also set things up for Wild Fit; her new trainer Patrick Biancone is excellent with layoffs in this range.

Picks: Itty Bitty Pretty, Balance, Wild Fit

- Achilles of Troy looks like a cinch in the Whirlaway at Aqueduct tomorrow if the card goes – there’s a blizzard warning for the area tomorrow afternoon and boy, what a shame it would be to be stuck inside all weekend with my Formulator and races from warmer climes. Ramon Dominguez takes over from Alan Garcia, and owner Ernie Paragallo didn’t beat around the bush in explaining why. "Ramon's got ice water in his veins….Alan is a good rider but he's still just a kid." [NY Daily News]

Notes and Corrections - Feb 9

- Got a comment from a friend of a friend about a statement I made in this post about the stallion Freud, the NY-based full brother to Giant’s Causeway.

...the statement one can get the same genes [from the two stallions] is just totally false [emphasis not mine]. They're by the same parents but they do NOT have the same genes--does your sister...have the same genes as you? No!! Mom has 46 chromosomes, so does dad. But the MIX of them is random, and short of being identical twins, there is NO CHANCE that you have the SAME genes....:

Guess I need to brush up on my Horse Genetics. Or any genetics, for that matter. A more accurate statement would have been that in Freud, you can get a stallion that descended from the same gene pool as did Giant’s Causeway, which, as evidenced by the two horses’ race records (as I pointed out), doesn’t guarantee anything. But that doesn't make any less interesting to me the way that he has been so successfully hyped and promoted thus far. Seems I bought into that hype myself, and for that I apologize.

- Bill Turner’s exercise rider says there’s “no way” that Christening took 1:05.12 for her five furlong work the other day; he thought it was closer to 1:02. He speculated that the clockers got confused by two horses that broke off right in front of her, and as I explained in an earlier post, that’s no surprise to me. She still needs to get her gate card, and Turner is anxious for that to happen as he feels she’s about ready to go. Highland Cat worked five in 1:02.15 (16/28), and Turner is still eyeing that maiden special carded for Feb 25.

- When Congress overwhelmingly passed a law last year to strip funding from horse slaughter plan inspectors, it was, as everyone was aware, with the specific intent to ban the practice in this country. But now the Bush Administration has rendered that action meaningless. The Agriculture Department has ruled that the plants can pay for the inspections themselves, thus horses will continue to be slaughtered in this country.

The [Agriculture] department "is thumbing its nose at Congress," said Michael Markarian, an official of the Humane Society of the United States. [AP]

Actually, they’re giving Congress the finger, along with the rest of us who cherish these animals who perform for and serve us so faithfully.

Sky's the Limit for High Limit

- A lot of attention on High Limit this week; he’s a subject of no less than three (sub. only) columns in the Form. Mike Watchmaker informs us that the Beyer for his win in the Strub was a career best 109, and notes that he was able to successfully rate and pass horses in the stretch for the first time. Lauren Stitch discusses his unraced dam Known Romance, who is inbred 2x4 to the important producer Tamerett through her sons Known Fact and Tentam (she’s also the dam of Secrettame, the dam of Gone West).

Jay Hovdey notes how the colt has bounced back from a Derby campaign which saw him sent to the post at Churchill for a disasterous last place finish off only four lifetime starts. "I'm not so sure that we might have leaned on him a little bit early on in the game," [owner Gary] West conceded. I’m not so sure about West’s command of language in this statement, but I guess he’s saying it was too much too soon. More interesting is West’s description of the cuts and scrapes that the colt suffered during the race.

"It was a bad enough thing that the vet described it to my racing manager as, 'Imagine if someone hit you in the leg with a baseball bat. How well do you think you'd run?' "

So what did they do with their horse that had been figuratively hit in the leg with a baseball bat? They ran him back just two weeks later in the Preakness, of course! What did you think they would do?

Andrew Caulfield in the fabulous, but sadly blog-proof Thoroughbred Daily News, also took a look at High Limit, and specifically his sire Maria’s Mon, who is off to a rousing start in 2006. Maria’s Mon is prominent on that list of juvenile champions (1995) who didn’t make it to the Derby; in fact, he didn’t win another race; he was retired after two races at three. (Check out his wins in the Champagne and Futurity here.)

Caulfield writes of how Maria's Mon started out as a $7500 sire and suffered from the third-year doldrums with a small crop. But when his first crop hit the ground running in 2000, his fee increased to $12,500 the following year. When his Monarchos won the 2001 Derby, the fee soared to $35,000, and since higher fees attract better mares, we’re seeing the results of that in his 2002 crop, now four. Besides High Limit, his Gaff, a $7000 weanling to $100,000 yearling pinhook, won the G3 Mr. Prospector earlier this year; and Monarch Lane, second in the Illinois Derby, won at Gulfstream last month in handy fashion, setting a track record for a mile despite it being his first race since April. Two other graded winners from this crop are Watchmon and Whimsey, winners of the G3 Jamaica and Iowa Oaks respectively last year.

Maria’s Mon’s 2003 crop is also looking good – Cause To Believe thrust himself squarely into the Derby picture with his win in the El Camino Real, and Wait A While was a 14 length winner in the slop in the Davona Dale last weekend. Latent Heat, an impressive three-year old for Bobby Frankel, is a member of that crop as well, as is John Ward’s Strong Contender, who continued to work towards his three-year old debut with a five furlong breeze in 1:00.60 (3/23) at Gulfstream on Wednesday. While Maria’s Mon’s stud fee dropped to $25,000 in 2005, I imagine it will go back up next year if he continues to get these results throughout the year.

Notes - Feb 8

- A sire I’ve been keeping an eye on with interest is Freud (Storm Cat), a full brother to Giant’s Causeway who stands in New York. For just $10,000, one can get the same genes for which his brother commands 30 times as much. Of course, while Giant’s Causeway was a European champion and a six-time Grade 1 winner, his little brother had a somewhat more modest record – one win and $44K earned in 12 starts.

Still, he’s the centerpiece of Lakland North, the stud farm venture by renowned pinhooker Becky Thomas (part of her Sequel Stallions), and she’s done a great job of marketing him – he was bred to 133 mares in 2005. His first crop yearlings averaged over $113K last year at sale last year, and despite a less than overwhelming performance on the racetrack by his first crop – just nine winners and no stakes winners – that success continued at Calder on Tuesday. Freud's three juveniles brought a total of $595,000, including the 5th highest sales price at $400K.

That colt is out of stakes winner Tricky Move (Tricky Creek), and is a half to NY-bred stakes winner Multiplication. Thomas sold him for $195,000 as a yearling last July, and he was pinhooked for a nice profit here. Everybody’s a winner! Another Freud colt, this one out of Erv’s Duck (Hagley), sold for $140,000 to Dogwood; he’s a half to Erv’s Line, a champ in Puerto Rico.

- The highest seller by a first year sire was a colt by Johannesburg out of a Sultry Song mare who's a full sister to multiple stakes winner Kirby’s Song. Two Buddha colts sold for $65,000 (out of a Phone Trick half to Value Plus) and $135,000. I have a nice Excel spreadsheet of all the sale results; drop me a line if you’d like a copy.

- New York State’s Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver has finally named his three appointees to the Ad Hoc Committee on the Future of Racing, and I’m sure that the folks in Saratoga, who have been clamoring for a voice on the future of their treasured racetrack, were delighted to learn that their mayor Valerie Keehn was one of the three people named. She’s a Democrat, as are Silver’s other two nominees, who are members of his Assembly caucus. Ms. Keehn contended that the committee’s lack of racing experience – Funny Cide’s owner Jack Knowlton is the only horseman – is not a bad thing.

'Sometimes you can be too close to a subject, to not be able to pull yourself back and not let your emotions affect your judgment….We need to lay it all out on the table, every option we can possibly think of, listen to people who are responding to the RFP process and in the end put together the best package we can that responds to the needs of racing in New York state.' [Saratogian]

While there may be a certain logic to that, with Friends of New York Racing wrapping up their operations later this month, there doesn’t seem to be an organized front to provide any input at all from the standpoint of horsemen and bettors, without whom all you’d have is three racetracks sitting on land that no one can agree who owns. That doesn’t seem very logical at all.

- Nick Zito, who speaks elegantly in this article about the importance of keeping Saratoga just the way it is (“Everything in racing has stayed stagnant but Saratoga has always marched on. It is a gift from God and we can't allow it to be tarnished”) [Albany Times Union], has no timetable for the return of Bellamy Road.

"I think George [Steinbrenner] wants to go backwards. He wants to have him running at the end of the year….He has been jogging on the farm and he looks beautiful."

Zito said Bellamy Road could run at Saratoga this summer, perhaps in the Sept. 2 Woodward, which has been moved from Belmont to the Spa.

- Barbaro’s speed fig for the Holy Bull was 95. [Hat tip to Jessica at Railbird.]

- Another one bites the dust: Arl-Wash Futuity winner (and my crummy BC Juvenile pick) Sorcerer's Stone is off the Yum! Trail with an injury to the same ankle that was operated on last year, though trainer Pat Byrne says it's unrelated. "I thought we had a legitimate shot to go to the Derby with a live horse." [Louisville Courier-Journal] So did those who bet him (45-1) in the futures pool.

Record Average at Calder

- The number of horses sold and the gross and median were down, but the average sale price of $139,430 for the 93 two-year olds sold was a record for the Ocala Breeders sale at Calder on Tuesday. Great job by Bloodhorse.com’s Deirdre Biles, who had the three sales toppers picked on top in order – does she get any kind of triple payoff for that?

The sales topper is by Forest Camp (the sire of Your Tent Or Mine). A $140,000 weanling purchase at Keeneland November (out of a Holy Bull mare), he was a $160,000 yearling buy-back in September, and a $650,000 two-year old here, nice! Bringing $525,000 was a Pulpit colt out of Queens Wild, a daughter of Wild Applause and a half-sister to Eastern Echo, Yell, and Roar. He was purchased for $90,000 as a yearling just last September. "He was real immature when I bought him," pinhooker [Carl] Bowling said. "He had a skin rash all over him, and his hair was real fuzzy. And then he really bloomed and made a beautiful horse.” And increased his value seven times over in just five months.

The third highest seller was a filly by Montbrook, still standing in Florida, at Ocala Stud, for $20,000 in 2006. This was a homebred, and she brought $460,000. She’s out of Velvet Choaker (On To Glory), and is a full-brother to stakes winner Royal Lad. And Ocala also had the 4th best seller, another Montbrook homebred; this one ($435,000) out of NY-bred stakes winner Unbridled Bliss.

The sale was marred when a Forest Camp filly who worked a sale-best ten second eighth of a mile flipped, landed head first, and had to be euthanized. She was expected to be one of the sales toppers for owner Don Graham, who paid $42,000 for her as a yearling. Graham told the Form that he’s been in the business for 35 years, and listening to him, it’s obvious he’s learned to roll with the punches in this business. "The one thing I tried to stress is that this was nobody's fault.... It was just an accident. You just have to put it in perspective. A horse you can replace. Fortunately, no humans were hurt."

- Wayne Lukas says of Folklore that the Santa Ynez "stressed her a little more than I would have liked." [DRF] She hasn’t worked since, but may do so this week.

Tuesday Night Notes - Feb 7

- Music School (A.P. Indy) will next race in the Rebel on March 18, according to Brisnet. Assuming that Neil Howard has Derby designs for him, and if he makes it to and runs well enough in the Rebel, he would presumably have one more prep; perhaps in the Arkansas Derby. If he then made it to Churchill, he’d be going into the Derby having raced just four times, which is pretty light in the way of experience.

There could be other lightly raced colts as well, such as Half Ours (Unbridled’s Song), Pletcher's “real horse,” according to Patrick, who on Thursday at Gulfstream will make his first start since winning the Juvenile on Derby Day last May. You figure three preps for this colt, and if he makes the grade, he will have raced five times, with an extremely long layoff along the way. Neil Drysdale denies that there’s any problem with Your Tent Or Mine (Forest Camp) despite his lack of workouts since the Hollywood Futurity. "No setbacks.....He's cantering, galloping on a daily basis." [DRF] He’ll start breezing soon for a March return, and figuring he races twice before the Derby, he would also go in with five starts, and just two this year (a no-no).

I dunno, this ain’t the way they used to do things, but take a look at the chart at the bottom of this article in the Form. It shows the Derby result of all the juvenile champions who haven’t won the race since Spectacular Bid in 1978; and it’s plain to see that the “jinx,” or whatever you want to call it, is getting worse and worse. Since Timber Country finished third in 1994, there have been six did-not-run’s (including Stevie Wonderboy), a 6th, two 8ths, a tenth and a thirteenth. Prior to ’94 (a very good year), you had Chief’s Crown run third, Easy Goer run second, and Forty Niner very nearly get the job done in 1988. There’s been nary a sniff in 12 years now, so it shouldn’t be surprising to see more and more connections go with the fresh approach. Stevie Wonderboy’s trainer Doug O’Neill left no doubt as to what he felt contributed to his horse’s injury:

“It just shows you how hard it is to go through a grueling 2-year-old campaign and then come back on the Derby trail. It's a lot of wear and tear on a horse.” [SignOnSanDiego.com]

If all goes well, we’ll be having this discussion a lot in the next couple of months as horses with a little foundation like First Samurai and Lawyer Ron go up against what looks like could be a large contingent of more lightly raced colts.

- Our filly Christening (Vicar) worked five furlongs in an interminable 1:05.12 this morning, the slowest of 20 works. Hoping to get Bill Turner’s comment on that tomorrow.

No News Is Good News

- It’s always with a certain sense of dread that I click onto one of the racing news sites; there’s always the fear that they’ll be a headline like the one today about the injury that will keep Stevie Wonderboy out of the Derby. There’s rarely any good news, really. It’s all too often concerning injuries to horses and humans, retirements, scandal. Handle is down. Barn fire in Kansas. Top trainer at Tampa suspended for milkshakes. The Kentucky Derby Presented By Yum! Brands. Whatsmore, the bad news often gets worse. The initial reports on Stevie Wonderboy indicate, as Merv Griffin said, that the horse can "be back in training in 90 days, and we'll go for the Classic.....It's a hairline fracture. They'll put in a screw, they'll take it out, and he'll be back." [Daily Racing Form] But if you delve further into the article, you see that trainer Doug O’Neill talks about further tests to determine if any other damage has occurred. You never know; we’re still waiting for Rockport Harbor and Declan’s Moon to return!

Even the good news - Horses Entered [at Laurel], But Trainers Holding Their Breath – is tempered by the fear of what could go wrong. Or, it’s merely correcting something that’s horribly wrong, like the news of racetracks increasing their accident insurance for jockeys. It’s not like we’ll ever see anything like: Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones To Return; Plan Nationwide Series of Match Races. Heck, I’d settle for modest stuff like: Bellamy Road to Return Sooner Than Expected. Derby Winner Giacomo Returns in a Romp. New York State To Frank Stronach: Take a Hike. 23,512 At Aqueduct To See Achilles of Troy Waltz in Whirlaway. (OK, now I’m getting carried away again.)

Stevie’s defection makes a wide open Derby picture even more so. Yes, he may not have won around two turns, but at least he’s tried it; and run creditably at that. Compared to the other top choices in the futures pool, he was far more of a known quantity. First Samurai (7-1) hasn’t been around two turns; third choice Private Vow (14-1) has had a total of two workouts thus far; and then you have Bluegrass Cat (15-1) (no start yet), Brother Derek (16-1) (questionable pedigree), Barbican (18-1) (no stakes nor two turn races), Point Determined (18-1) (one win), and Barbaro (19-1) (and who the hell really knows if he can replicate his turf form on a fast track). Besides legitimate contenders like Cause to Believe and Keyed Entry who were held at much higher odds, you have well-bred horses like Music School and Jolted and Jostled yet to be tested for class, as well as all those others who haven’t even raced this year like Half Ours, Strong Contender, and Sorcerer’s Stone (back on the track with his first workout, a bullet three furlongs (out of six) in :35.80 on Friday. And though it may go against history for such lightly raced colts to win the Derby, don’t you get the feeling that almost anyone can jump to the front of the class with a dominating prep win?

- Achilles of Troy’s owner Ernie Paragello is touting another three-year old in his barn - Scanlon’s Song (Partner’s Hero), a debut winner at a mile and a sixteenth at the Big A at 29-1 (87 Beyer). "He's as good as any 3-year-old that's run.” [Daily Racing Form] He's a possibility to run with his stablemate in the Whirlaway on Saturday.

- Seems as if Bloodhorse is the only one of the major online trades to have fully bought into the new name for the Derby. Keyed Entry defeated First Samurai by 1 1/4 lengths when it appeared that the latter, a leading contender for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I)....[Bloodhorse] . I wonder if they’ll change Haskin’s column to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands Trail. Or the Yum Trail for short.

- Keyed Entry got a 110 Beyer for his Hutchinson win. Todd Pletcher, noting how fast the race was, mentioned the March 18 Rebel at Oaklawn as a possible alternate for the March 4 Fountain of Youth if he feels the colt needs more time.

- Monday works: Hesanoldsalt, my favorite of Zito's prospects, got a half in :48.20 (9/45); Bluegrass Cat, five furlongs in 1:02.80 (47/60) after working a minute flat in his prior work; and Michael Gill's Travelin' Leroy, who he touts as the best horse he’s ever owned [Arkansas Democrat Gazette], worked five in 1:00.80 (4/64) at Oaklawn, preparing for his three-year old debut in the Southwest Stakes.

The Jinx Continues

The Racing Form is reporting that juvenile champ Stevie Wonderboy is out of the Derby with a hairline condylar fracture to his front right foot, thus continuing the streak of the BC Juvenile winner not winning the Kentucky Derby. Owner Merv Griffin said, "He's out of the Derby. It's the saddest thing in my life."

I know he must be terribly disappointed, but all in all, I guess that Merv must be having a pretty good life.

Monday Morning QB - Feb 6

- Donn winner Brass Hat is unbeaten in three dirt races since missing more than a year after suffering a foot fracture in the 2004 Lone Star Derby. It’s one of those nice family stories; Fred Bradley bred and raised Brass Hat from a mare he bought for $5,000, by a sire with a $3,500 fee; and his son William trains. "It's a dream," [William] Bradley stammered, his round ruddy face becoming flushed, his blue eyes welling with tears. "It's a dream." [Palm Beach Post] Brass Hat was just the second Grade 1 starter for the trainer, and it was a dominant win despite being very wide on the first turn and a good three-four wide on the second. He started flying as they approached the final turn, and track announcer Vic Stauffer, borrowing from Trevor Denman, picked him up with a “Brass Hat is running a big one!” Brass Hat is by the Kris S. stallion Prized, a BC Turf winner who is currently standing for $3500 in West Virginia.

- I had Keyed Entry (Honour and Glory) to win in the first part of a losing parlay with Itsallboutthechase, a disappointing 5th in the Holy Bull. Pretty incredible race by the winner, who broke bad, floated wide around the turn, and ran seven furlongs in what must have been something like 1:20 and change before finishing in 1:27.12. Both the winner and First Samurai will try two turns in their next races, but neither trainer would commit to the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream.

"He will stretch out next, but I don't know if it'll be the Fountain of Youth," Pletcher said...

"I'd imagine he'd get another start here, but it's not etched in stone," [Frank] Brothers said. [Daily Racing Form]

I think it can be argued that Keyed Entry is the most impressive three-year old we’ve seen on the racetrack yet this year. He confirmed his class by keeping a Grade 1 winner at bay, and now we’ll find out about his distance prospects. He’s out of a stakes winning mare by the fine handicap runner Cryptoclearance, a personal favorite of mine; and he has inbreeding to the influential broodmare Grand Splendor, from whom has descended the likes of Fappiano, Ogygian, Honour and Glory, Keeper Hill, Clabber Girl, and Commendable.

As for First Samurai, he ran well and probably harder than his connections would have liked. I don't think he did anything either way in terms of confirming or not his status as the 7-1 individual entry favorite in the Derby futures pool. His next start, presumably at a two-turn route, should be far more definitive.

- How about this Sweetnorthernsaint (Sweetsouthernsaint), who showed that his romps over weaker company on the Big A inner track were no fluke by doing the same in the Miracle Wood stakes on a sloppy track at Laurel in 1:38.69 for the one turn mile; in the race before, older optional claiming horses took 1:40.10 for the same distance. He’s a half brother to Maria’s Image, a stakes winner at a mile and a sixteenth at Calder. He set a slow pace of 1:14, and then sprinted home in eights of :12.24 and :12.36; his jockey Mario Pino said, "That was fun. I don't get too excited, but all I can say is 'Wow.'” [Baltimore Sun]

- Highly regarded Music School finally made his three-year old debut, and trainer Neil Howard was pleased with the 3/4 length victory and, especially, the way he did it, getting the mile in 1:39.04, best for the distance at the meet thus far.

“I thought he did everything in great fashion,” Howard said in the press box, a spot normally reserved at Oaklawn for the winning connections after stakes races. “I loved the fact that he broke and then Robby was able to let a couple of horses outrun him going around the first turn and then settle into third.” [Arkansas Democrat Gazette]

The son of A.P. Indy, out of a stakes winning half sister to Mineshaft (also by A.P. Indy), is likely headed next to the Rebel on March 18.

- Workouts: Frankel’s Latent Heat worked five furlongs in :59 3/5 on Saturday at Hollywood Park. Frankel said. "Maybe I'll run him (next) in an allowance race, I don't know. I don't think he'll run in the San Vicente (S. [G2] on Sunday)." [Brisnet]. Frankel had previously been quoted as saying that he would not rush this colt for the Derby. Private Vow worked five in 1:03.60 (10/11); Brother Derek a half in :49.40 (6/24).

Questions Remain on Barbaro

- With his win in the Holy Bull, we now know that Barbaro can win on a sloppy main track in addition to the turf. But I may disagree with both aspects of trainer Michael Matz’s assertion that "He won with something left......It answered the big question, first time on dirt." [Philly Inquirer] The race chart notes that he was “all out” at the finish – that may be too stern upon visual inspection of the finish, but he certainly did not display the explosive finishes that were the trademark of his grass wins. It took him nearly 39 seconds to get the last 3/8ths and 13.16 seconds for the last eighth. His final time of 1:49.31 was, as Walter pointed out, around a second and a half slower than that of Brass Hat, who must have run nearly a mile and a quarter given how wide he was in the Donn (yes, those were older horses, but as a contrast, take a look at Santa Anita, where Bob and John’s time was just .15 slower than that of High Limit), and, as Andy Beyer pointed out, only .25 second faster than a fair group of mares who ran an hour earlier.

As far as Barbaro answering that big question, the sloppy track will loom as a giant question mark over not only him, but for the other contenders as well, all of whom can point to the track condition as an excuse if they wish. The fact that much of the field was so wide going into the first turn didn’t hurt the winner, who has the speed to get good position, and it’s no coincidence that runner-up Great Point was expertly steered to the rail before the first turn from the 13 post by Jeremy Rose. On the other hand, my selection Itsallboutthechase couldn’t possibly have been wider. Flashy Bull, sent off as the 4-1 second choice, ran a creditable 4th in his first race since his second to Bluegrass Cat in the Remsen.

- For Bob and John, it was another nice step forward, but the Sham Stakes was probably not much less for a “workout” than the allowance race two weeks ago that Baffert described as such. According to the chart, he won under a couple cracks of the whip and steady handling. He got the last three furlongs in :37.12, with a final eighth in :12.62.

As for the Strub, yeah, it wasn’t the greatest field, but you gotta be impressed with High Limit, and the way he has come back at four, after becoming a reliable money-burner late in his three year old campaign. It seemed as if he would become another talented colt that suffered lasting consequences of being rushed into the Kentucky Derby – and then into the Preakness after running last at Churchill! And this was all after just two preps at three. It’s interesting to note the contrast between he and the horribly overbet (though not as much as Canteen, an inexplicable favorite at 5-2) 4th place finisher Greeley’s Galaxy, another one who just had to run for the Roses, and has since yet to come anywhere near the dynamic form he showed in the Illinois Derby last April.

If there’s one thing that Giacomo, a thoroughly decent third in his return to the races, had going into last year’s Derby, it was foundation; he had seven races under his belt, six of them since Oct 22, 2004. That was in contrast to horses such as the abovementioned pair, as well as Bellamy Road, who attempted the Derby with just two preps. Even with Afleet Alex, one can speculate that it was the wasted Rebel and the missed training time afterwards that caused him to be a bit short in the Derby, rather than any riding error by Jeremy Rose. With Bob and John, Baffert is taking the approach of bringing the colt along with races - a couple of easy spots thus far (as opposed to First Samurai, who ran very hard in defeat); in contrast, we’re seeing horses that are supposedly Derby contenders that haven’t even made their 2006 debut as of yet – Private Vow and Bluegrass Cat to name two. History favors the foundation approach of course, and I believe that’s something to keep in mind as we approach May.

- Trevor Denman is extremely sharp with his in-race observations, and he had High Limit tagged as the horse to beat early on. “High Limit is racing nicely in third, taking a good hold,” he noted with some enthusiasm as they straightened on the backstretch. It was a very professional effort by a colt who seems to have really matured at four.

- Eventful weekend for Baffert – his pair of prospects, Point Determined and Royal Legacy, both ran second in their respective allowance and maiden tests on Friday; though neither of them ran nearly poorly enough to totally write off. Also, on Friday, Point of Impact flew six furlongs in a bullet (out of 11) 1:11 flat. All three of these are intriguing colts, though as far as the Derby goes, they would all lack both the foundation we just discussed (and for heaven's sake, two of them are still maidens), and, again as pointed out by Walter in his lengthy dissertation, enough earnings in graded stakes to qualify for what promises to be a full field of three-year olds in Kentucky.

Saturday Morning Notes - Feb 4

- Brad may have at various times jokingly (so he says) called me a whore [to the radical left] and a bitch, but I still like his blog Brad Buys A Yearling nonetheless. He recently linked to an interview with Michael Wrona, the track announcer at Bay Meadows and Golden Gate. Besides his frank comments on drugs in the sport, Wrona provided some details about the way the sport is conducted in his native Australia that I found no less than jaw-dropping. I’m going to quote here at length; it’s worth reading about how the racing authorities in Australia seem to have a lot more respect than us punters in the USA get here.

Apart from the obvious nationwide complaints of inconsistencies in disqualification rulings, American Stewards and, therefore, American racing lack the transparency of their Aussie counterparts. Down Under, there’s a “Stewards’ Report” issued on a daily basis. This details what action was taken concerning horses that suffered trouble and interference, including the dialogue between the Stewards and the jockeys (or a jockey’s translator). Also, horses that performed unexpectedly well or poorly are immediately investigated. Connections are quizzed, wagering patterns are scrutinized and vet reports are released. In Australia, the intention to change riding tactics must be advised and publicized prior to a race. Trainers scratching from feature races up until a couple of hours prior to post time – which happens in at least some states here – is simply not permissible in Australia. Neither are overweights of more than a couple of pounds; and suspensions never exclude “designated races.” Aussie punters would tear down the grandstand if there were announcements in the post parade about equipment changes and horses having been gelded. Such late announcements are commonplace here, and I feel thoroughly embarrassed every time I have to make them. [Love Da Goat]

For one thing, there’d be a lot of investigations for unexpected performances here; probably could employ several hundred people. And the idea of say, Todd Pletcher letting us know “well, we’ll take Flower Alley far off the pace today” is almost unimaginable; in fact, that seems almost hard to believe. I’d like to know exactly what Wrona meant by that. What if Flower Alley broke well, a speed horse got left and the rider made a tactical decision to go for the lead?

- Monmouth is running behind on its new turf course, and it may not be ready until early July. But New Jersey racing officials have actually come up with a creative solution. They plan to cancel several early season dates, and instead run three all-turf programs at the Meadowlands in June , on Mondays, a day when Belmont is closed. Good thinking! Several years ago, they ran a grass race prior to a few harness cards and had an interbreed daily double, which was pretty cool, and I don’t know why they didn’t continue. With thoroughbred racing limited to six weeks in the fall, there’s no reason not to take advantage of a perfectly good turf course in June, and this seems like an excellent job of creating good out of some bad.

- Nice easy win for Steppenwolfer (Aptitude) at Oaklawn on Friday; add him to the Southwest Stakes coming up on the 20th.

- With the quarantine for equine herpesvirus lifted, 14 horses stabled at Pimlico have been accepted into the entries for Laurel’s races on Wednesday. They will be permitted to race barring any new cases of the virus developing. [Washington Post] (I’m actually a whore [to the Washington Post]; will do anything for a link.)

Notes - Feb 3

- First Samurai (Giant's Causeway) is listed as the 6-5 choice for the Hutcheson on Saturday at Gulfstream, his long awaited three-year old debut. He was probably the first two-year old last year to be mentioned in the same sentence as ‘Kentucky Derby’ (without the Yum!). In fact, Haskin had him as a potential triple crown winner; at least until Stevie Wonderboy came around. The headline in the Racing Form reads First Samurai faster than rivals, and while that may be true, will that be the case in this race? His owner Bruce Lunsford said "I don't think he's going to be at 100 percent making his first race after three months…..He shouldn't be at his sharpest, nor would you want him to be." [AP]

This colt still has things to prove – he hasn’t raced around two turns, he’s had some really slow come-home times, particularly in the Champagne, in which he took advantage of a ridiculous :52 3/5 second half to rally past an exhausted Henny Hughes, and who has he beaten, really, other than Henny Hughes, who he did not beat in the BC Juvenile? Well, he did beat Brother Derek that day, though we know about that one's preference for two turns. Still, I think it can be argued that the Juvenile, in which he finished third, was his best race.

I’m not really looking to bet against him, but I will be keeping an eye on Keyed Entry (Honour and Glory), stretching out a bit after his spectacular six furlong allowance win in which he breezed home in final eights of :11 4/5 and :12 1/5. I think he’ll take enough money to make it not worthwhile, but this could be a serious contender for Pletcher. More on Keyed Entry in this post.

- In the 5th at the Gulf on Saturday, Steve Asmussen’s Noonmark (Unbridled's Song) makes his first start since a ten-length maiden win at Belmont in which he earned a 97 Beyer. Superfly (Fusaichi Pegasus), Nick Zito’s full brother to Andromeda’s Hero, who will later run in the Donn, makes his first start since running 5th in the Juvenile.

- Bob Baffert is prepping Bob and John (Seeking the Gold) for the Derby the old-fashioned way – by racing him. He’ll start in Saturday’s G3 Sham Stakes just two weeks and a day after his allowance win, but Baffert says of that race: "It was a workout….He's a big, beautiful horse. He looks the part and he needs to learn a little more." [DRF] I like the way Baffert is bringing this horse along, and I’m pinching myself a bit for not putting down a few bucks on him at 31-1 in the futures pool. We’ll see how I feel about that after the Sham, though it’s hardly a definitive prep given the fact that Going Wild won it last year. That would actually make it an anti-prep.

Also in the race is Sacred Light, who rallied well for third in the allowance race, and Genre, the lucky beneficiary of Bob and John’s controversial DQ in the Real Quiet.

- For those of you playing the races from Oaklawn, you should probably check out this article by Robert Yates in the Arkansas Democrat Gazette about an apparent strong bias towards closers and horses starting from, and racing on the outside during the first two weekends. I’ve mentioned my skepticism of track bias claims that seem to be based on flimsy evidence, but there are times when one should pay attention.

“I think it [the surface ] was deep,” [jockey John] McKee said. “I think it was real tiring. It hurt the front-runners real bad [during the opening weekend ]. Anybody near the pace was dead.”
……
The outside three post positions (Nos. 10, 11, 12 ) have already accounted for 12 victories in sprints — seven more than at this point last year — and five victories in route races.

Two of the route winners broke from post 12, normally a black hole at Oaklawn. From 1991-2005, post 12 yielded only 19 winners from 552 starts, according to statistics in the Oaklawn media guide.

From just 12 starts, Post 10 has already produced three route winners, equaling the total for post Nos. 1, 2, 4, 7 and 8.

Even if the bias is no longer apparent this weekend, take note of horses who run back after racing there the first two weeks.

- Neil Howard will give it another shot with Music School (A.P. Indy), hoping for a fast track at Oaklawn on Sunday, when he’s entered in the 7th at one mile.

- Highland Cat breezed five furlongs in 1:02.06 (11/36) on Thursday.

- The Head Chef and I are going to see human beings race at the 99th Millrose Games at the Garden tonight. I can’t bet on that stuff, right?

A Cool Strub

- Brad Free of the Racing Form thinks it’s "cool” that Giacomo (Holy Bull) is returning to the races in the G2 Strub at Santa Anita on Saturday, even if he faces a tough task in his first race since the Belmont.

And sure, there are a number of reasons to slam the Derby winner.

His speed figures are not good enough. He was lucky to win the Derby, a low-rated race that fell apart late. Giacomo has not raced in eight months and his closing style hardly suits the Santa Anita racing surface. [Daily Racing Form, subscription or print edition only]

However, he notes that Giacomo may simply be the fastest horse in the field despite his flaws, and cites the example of Lava Man’s win in the Sunshine Millions last week.

For all the right reasons, many lined up to bet against Lava Man. And it turns out that they were right.

Lava Man has lost a step. He is not the horse he was last summer when he earned successive Beyer Figures of 116, 120, and 112 at Hollywood Park and Del Mar. In fact, Lava Man has regressed so far that the Beyer Figure he earned Saturday was a mere 98, about eight lengths slower than his midseason form of 2005.

Problem was, there was not a horse in the Sunshine Millions Classic that could exploit Lava Man's vulnerability.

Well, Free is alone amongst his DRF colleagues in thinking that Giacomo can win the Strub; he’s the only one in the selections box that even has him finishing in the money. Whatsmore, the Form lists the Derby winner at 6-1, and at that price, I’d be on board too (though I highly doubt he'll be anywhere near that). Trainer John Sherriffs has prepared him in a similar way as he did for the Derby, starting with s-l-o-w works, building up to a snappy seven furlongs in his final one.

”He's a little more aggressive than he was as a 3-year-old and probably gained 150 pounds. I remember him as being kind of thin as a 3-year-old; now he's filled out. He's a bigger, stronger horse." [Bloodhorse]

Sherriffs told the Form: "If we can get as much speed as the Derby [had], it would be great." Well, yeah! It would be great if I found a million bucks in the street too!

I suppose one could make a case for Greeley’s Galaxy (Mr. Greeley) in his third race off the layoff; his third in the San Fernando wasn’t bad, but wasn’t inspirational either. And I’m not even going to mention Wilko (Awesome Again). OK, I just did. "His last race, I think maybe he came back too soon and gave it the old bounce," said Corey Nakatani [Bloodhorse], referring to the fact that his 11th place finish in the Malibu came just 16 days after what had to be a tiring third in his 4yo debut. But that's just his latest in a long and growing line of excuses, and he’ll have to win a race before he gets my support.

Steve Asmussen sends New Orleans Handicap runner-up Dixie Meister (Holzmeister), who ran a lifetime best 99 Beyer in running second to Brass Hat (see how that one runs in the Donn). This Texas-bred was purchased by Gary Tanaka after the New Orleans, and his racing manager said of the 4 yo gelding, "He's a progressive horse….and he could be a top-class handicap horse based on his run in the New Orleans Handicap.” [Thoroughbred Times] My question is why Tanaka still has an owners’ license given his increasing troubles with the law, which has led him to be confined at his home.

High Limit (Maria’s Mon) returned to the races with a front-running nose victory in the San Pasqual in which he was challenged throughout, but even Bobby Frankel conceded that “it wasn't a great race.” Still, if he can reproduce his 101 Beyer at the longer distance and with other potential speed types like Actxecutive and Greeley’s Galaxy to contend with, he should be right there at the finish again.

One contender that could be overlooked is the lightly-raced Ulistnintome (Wild Rush). It seems that Richard Mandella hasn’t been quite sure what to do with this 4 yo; he’s tried sprints, routes, turf and dirt. He fires every time with a 7-2-3-2 lifetime record. He was favored against Greeley’s Galaxy at a Santa Anita route last March, closing for a no-shot third against a slow pace. He’s run just twice since that race, both excellent closes at 6 1/2 furlongs; first on the downhill turf and the last time on the dirt last month. He closed stoutly for second by a neck in that race, earning a lifetime high 97 Beyer, and could be poised for an upset on the stretchout.

Picks: Ulistnintome, Giacomo, Dixie Meister

- Nine Kentucky Derby winners have run previously in the Strub and six have won the race. Silver Charm was the most recent, beating five opponents in 1998 after his Derby victory in 1997. [LA Times]

Gulfstream Three-Year Olds

- A couple of nice looking three-year old colts in Thursday’s sixth at Gulfstream; unfortunately for me, they finished in the wrong order. I had Jazil (Seeking the Gold) keyed on top at an overlaid 7-1, and when he took off for the lead three wide on the turn, I was feeling pretty good. Or, that is, I would have been feeling pretty good if I wasn’t at work and had seen the race live. But Corinthian (Pulpit) was the hot horse on the board, sent off as the 3-2 favorite over Pletcher’s morning line favorite Throng. And Corinthian, after sitting snugly on the rail, followed Jazil’s move, circled four wide, and outgamed him to the finish by 3/4’s length, getting the final furlong in :12.38. Nice effort by the top two, and I imagine we could see one or both of them in the Fountain of Youth.

Corinthian is a half brother to Desert Hero; his third dam is Claiborne’s graded winner Number, the dam of current sire Numerous, as well as Jade Robbery. If you go back to Special, his 4th dam, you see that this is the distaff family of Sadler’s Wells and Nureyev. Corinthian has inbreeding to Nijinsky, Buckpasser, Bold Ruler, and Raise a Native. He’s definitely bred for distance, and he ran like it today. Trained by Jimmy Jerkins, he’s sure to make his way onto some Derby lists after this effort.

- There seems to be a chance of rain for Gulfstream on Saturday, and that would suck of course. But let’s pretend I didn’t see that and proceed with handicapping, which is what I’ve read one should do in this case anyway. Better to concentrate on the basics first and then adjust accordingly if necessary. The Holy Bull is too good to pass up anyway. Sure, Barbaro’s turf form is awesome, and his closing fractions are scary; but if he’s the favorite as many expect, I’d have to take a stand against. Nonetheless, if he does translate his form to the dirt, he could possibly become many observers’ favorite for the Derby.

I had Itsallboutthechase in the Aventura, and I’d pick him without hesitation in this spot if not for the fact that he drew the ten post, which can be as deadly at this mile and an eighth route at Gulfstream as it is for a harness race. But he’s a dead closer, and he was extremely wide and on both turns after breaking from the same post at Churchill in a mile and a sixteenth race. I think he’ll thrive as the distance increases; he’s by Devil His Due and his dam has some tremendous distance pedigree, being by Dynaformer and being inbred to Ribot and the full brothers His Majesty and Graustark. His dosage index is only 1.20. If he gets some speed up front with horses leaving for position, perhaps he can mount a late run and get up at a decent price.

Doctor Decherd (Louis Quartorze) nosed out Itsallboutthechase in the Aventura, and draws inside of that one. He makes his first start around two turns. Flashy Bull ran second to the highly regarded Bluegrass Cat in the Remsen, earning the highest two-turn dirt Beyer in the field; he’s been consistent, but has run some slow final fractions, including a 39 second final 3/8ths in the Remsen; and he makes his first start since then. Nick Zito sends his undefeated Hemingway’s Key. He has a two turn win at Calder in a pretty slow race, and I don’t think he’s playing his best hand here. Sunriver, Ashado’s little brother, has the breeding to be any kind for Pletcher; but he opts to ride Velasquez on My Golden Song instead, hmm. Keep an eye on the latter being scratched, as Pletcher has been critical of the outside posts.

I figure if I’m going to play against Barbaro, I might as well go all the way and leave him out. I like Itsallboutthechase to turn the table on Doctor Decherd with a late surge; with Flashy Bull and Sunriver to round the exotics.

- Also check out the third – a maiden special weight for three year olds. There are two million dollar first time starters. Tawfeer (Storm Cat, $1.25M) goes for Kiaran McLaughlin, who is 1 for his last 23 debut runners. Tawfeer is a three-quarters brother to Spinaway winner Stormy Pick. Zinzan (Grand Slam, $1.3M) is a Todd Pletcher first-timer who doesn’t look like too much pedigree-wise to this untrained eye, so she must be quite a looker; watch the board. Also check out the tote on the three horse, Archilles. Trainer Patrick Byrne is good with first-timers, and this colt by Silver Deputy is a half-brother to Grade 1, and first-out winner Lion Hearted. The in-form horse is Steel the Glory, a troubled third to Barbican, who subsequently ran himself into the Derby outskirts with a big allowance win.

Futures For Fun

- Walter goes off on the futures pool odds in this comments section and who can blame him? His point is that three months before the race, one probably has around a one in 40 chance of picking the Derby winner, so how could anyone accept odds less than that? One can quibble over that one in 40 number I suppose, but barring extraordinary circumstances, it’s gotta be in the ballpark. Just my opinion, but I don’t think I’d accept 7-1 on First Samurai to start in the Derby at this point, no less win it. Would you?

That brings me to a column by Steve Klein in the Daily Racing Form entitled Inflating your wallet, not ego, the goal (subscription only). (His number for Pool 1 is half of Walter’s at 20-1.) He writes: Making money should be the number one goal of futures bettors, but some players let their egos influence them to make bad decisions. I couldn’t disagree with him more. To me, the Derby futures pool, particularly the first one, is strictly a fun bet and all about ego, and the only “bad” decision would be to bet a horse with single-digit odds, as well as horses like Private Vow (14-1) who hadn’t even had a workout this year when the pool closed; or Your Tent Or Mine (21-1), who hasn’t had a workout since his last race. I would consider it a win just to have my selection start in the race and be able to brag that I have so-and-so at 35-1 whereas he’s expected to go off around 10-1. If you can generate that kind of value, you’ve made a great bet whether you ultimately win or not. And since I wouldn’t consider the futures pool appropriate for anything approaching a major investment, even winning it would lend itself more to the ego satisfaction of saying “I had it!” than a life-changing score; it’s not like there are going to be any lottery payoffs on a straight win bet, and I think that if you do win enough to buy a new house, you probably bet too much!

- I haven’t yet written much about the Derby contingent at Oaklawn – no Afleet Alex or Rockport Harbor types there this year. I guess Lawyer Ron (21-1) is currently the top prospect there, and the only one listed in Pool 1. The Southwest Stakes is the next Derby prep there, and Lawyer Ron’s next scheduled start. He worked out last Friday, getting five furlongs in 1:00.40 (2/48).

His splits, according to official clockers, were : 11. 95 for the opening eighth of a mile, : 23. 98 for the quarter-mile and : 36. 45 for three-eighths of a mile.

McKee shook the reins near the eighth pole as Lawyer Ron responded with a final quarter in : 23. 95. The 3-year-old son of Langfuhr galloped out threequarters of a mile in 1 : 13. 16 and seven-eighths in 1 : 27. 31. [Arkansas Democrat Gazette]

Note that his final quarter was faster than his first; you don’t see too many speedy types that come home as strongly as this one does. That can be a dangerous combination if he can keep it up as the distances increase. However, this horse has been in training straight through since last July, has run 11 times, and his trainer Bob Holthus is planning the full Southwest/Rebel/Arkansas Derby regimen. His breeding for a mile and a quarter is questionable to start with, and it would be quite an achievement if he was still in peak form come May. Nonetheless, he should be quite formidable in the one mile Southwest.

Tim Ritchey’s top prospect may have been Menacing, at least before his 10th place finish in his seasonal debut. He told the Arkansas Democrat Gazette: “I think there is [an explanation ], but I’m not sure yet.....I’m just going to train him a little more. But I think I’ve picked up on a little something. Hopefully, his next race will be a little better.” John Servis’ best hope may be with the regally-bred Jostled and Jolted (Storm Cat-Jostle), a two-turn maiden winner despite a very wide trip on opening day. Servis told the Louisville Courier-Journal: "He keeps getting better, but for right now I'm just sitting tight....The horse will let me know if he's good enough to go." He's also pointing for the Southwest.

On Friday, there’s a first-level allowance race that has attracted a couple of three-year olds that are considered by some to be dark horse contenders. Mr. Pinstripe (Yankee Victor) was a sharp allowance winner at Arlington last summer, but ran a distant 4th in the Iroqouis and Arl-Wash Futurity. Those were against good horses, but he’s never been around two turns, and I think he’d be a bad favorite if he’s bet to his 9-5 morning line. Steppenwolfer (Aptitude), won his last around two turns against moderate competition at Louisiana Downs with a 78 Beyer. Either of these would have to make a big impression to get on my Derby radar screen.

- At Santa Anita on Friday, Bob Baffert rolls out his impressive maiden winner Point Determined (Point Given) in a one mile allowance; as well as his maiden Royal Legacy (Monarchos), a troubled second to his stablemate, at the same distance in the sixth and seventh. As Walter pointed out: “assuming both horses run (and win), it'll be very interesting to compare the times of the two races, over the same surface and just a half-hour apart...nice measuring stick...” No matter what happens though, it's still possible that Point of Impact could be Baffert's best three-year old down the road.

Notes - Feb 1

- Latest reports on my Castle Village horses: Christening worked out this morning, though it doesn’t seem to have been recorded, big surprise. Our guy got her in :50.2 for a half, with a reported strong gallop out after the wire. Bill Turner feels that a late February debut is a possibility. Highland Cat galloped a mile and a half, and is a possibility for a mile and 70 yard maiden special on Feb 25.

- Couple of workouts by Derby Presented by Yum! Brands prospects (hey, if that’s the way they want their race referred to, I’m more than happy to comply – only makes them look more ridiculous): John Ward’s $800,000 two-year old purchase Strong Contender (Maria's Mon) continues his strong preparation for his 3 yo debut with five furlongs in a minute flat at Gulfstream (2/10) (outworked only by Ward’s stakes winning Miss Matched), and Achilles of Troy (Notebook), prepping for next weekend’s Whirlaway at the Big A, got five in 1:01.41 (3/9).

- Oops.

- Correction/clarification to my post on the Sunshine Millions. While Stormy Atlantic, the sire of Filly and Mare Sprint winner Hot Storm does currently stand in Kentucky, he used to stand in Florida, and did so when Hot Storm was foaled. He fetched only $3000 in his first year at stud, doubled that by 2002, and then moved to Kentucky, where he now stands for $20,000.

Back From the Brink

- When the racino at New York’s Yonkers Raceway harness track opens sometime this fall, it was be one of the largest gaming venues in the country with some 5,500 VLT’s, and possibly another 2,000 down the road.

"No one in the industry has opened up a facility like this with this many machines," said Robert Galterio, general manager of the raceway. "It will be the fourth-largest gaming company in terms of number of machines." [Journal News]

The Yonkers grandstand was demolished years ago, but now a new 120,000 square foot building is going up to house the machines, as well as restaurants and live entertainment. Yonkers Raceway, where I watched Richard Nixon’s resignation speech in August, 1974, has been a ghost town for many years now. Like the now-defunct Roosevelt Raceway, it was a victim of scandals, OTB, the Meadowlands, and, more recently, all else that ails most racetracks in terms of live attendance. But with 7 1/2 percent of slots profits slated for purses, officials and horsemen are hoping for a big revival. And hey, here’s our friend Frank Drucker, the track's PR guy, still alive and well, who says, "You'll have horses clamoring to race here…..The quality of racing will be like back in our heyday, when the quality was the best in New York."

Worth checking out is the poignant slide show “Back From the Brink – The Rebirth of Yonkers Raceway” on the Journal News page. (Hat tip to Albany Law School Racing and Wagering Page)

- Plans are in the works for an expansion of VLT’s at Saratoga’s harness track.

- The destructive dispute over VLT revenue that is killing horsemen and management at upstate Monticello harness rages on, but there’s a potential D-day on the horizon. The NY State Racing and Wagering Board has only assigned dates there through Feb 16. "What happens after that date is the question being posed to management and the horsemen," [board member Michael] Hoblock said. [NY Daily News]

- Scary news from Laurel, where a horse euthanized last week for what was thought to be a pelvic injury tested positive for the equine herpesvirus that was hoped to be isolated to Pimlico. The racing ban on horses stabled at Pimlico, which contributed to two Sundays of racing being cancelled at Laurel due to a lack of entries, has thus been extended from Saturday to Feb 7.

For Rodney Jenkins, trainer of the deceased filly at Laurel, it means that his 35 horses stabled in barn 9 at Laurel will be quarantined for 21 days, ouch. Jenkins magnanimously declined an offer to work his horses after normal training hours. "I think that's the only sensible thing any horseman can do….Let's try to stop this thing and get it over with.” [Washington Post]

Pimlico officials are now being compelled to reassure everyone that the outbreak will be over in time for the Preakness to be conducted there.

Fortunately for Pimlico, equine herpesvirus usually runs its course in a month to six weeks, according to Dr. George Allen of the University of Kentucky's Gluck Equine Research Center.

"It would be unlikely that what's going on now at Pimlico would extend into the spring racing season," said Allen…..”The unusual thing about this disease is that until the year 2000 it was extremely rare. But since then it's really skyrocketed." [Bloodhorse]

There’s an excellent Q&A about the disease in the January 21 print edition of Bloodhorse which observes that since an outbreak at the beginning of 2003 in Ohio, the highly contagious disease been observed nationwide and in different breeds. There were six outbreaks in 2005 after just "one or two" in 2004. Dr. Allen noted in the print article that “We do know that it gets spread from one end of the barn to the other end in quite a rapid time period. Part of that spread is from horse-to-horse-to horse; it just runs down that aisle of stalls.”

On the Maryland slots front, the slots bill that passed the House of Delegates last year, one that would limit slots to one racetrack in the state, has been reintroduced. However, opponents and supporters alike don’t give it much of a shot, due in part to election year politics and a budget surplus. Besides, House Speaker Michael Busch, who some would blame for singlehandedly killing slots legislation the last three years, when asked if he thought the House would take up a bill this year, said simply, "No." [Baltimore Sun]

- Please feel free to email me with comments, questions, suggestions, or links.

Yuck!

Churchill Downs CEO Tom Meeker said in a statement:

"As an outstanding corporate citizen in our hometown, Yum! Brands understands the importance of the Derby's history and tradition to the residents of our city and region, as well as to racing fans around the world." [Yahoo Finance]

Too bad that Churchill Downs apparently doesn't.

Funny Cide's Form No Laughing Matter

- Funny Cide is entered in the Thursday feature at Gulfstream, a one mile allowance race that also drew Sun King. It’s his first non-stakes race since a five length win in an allowance race in January of 2004 at the Gulf (and the only one, other than his debut, in his 25 lifetime starts). Nonetheless, it doesn’t look great for the now six-year old Derby winner; his recent past performance lines are pretty bleak. I don’t know if this race is enough of a class drop given his recent form; Sun King ran credibly in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and BC Classic, both beyond his best distance, to end his three-year old season, and his two prior efforts off layoffs have been excellent. In fact, he made his three-year old debut off a similar layoff after the 2004 BC Juvenile and beat an allowance that included Survivalist, earning a Beyer of 104. He should be in fine fettle for his four-year old debut for Zito. And I think Funny Cide may have to improve to beat Sir Greeley, and perhaps even Always Noble, Contante, and Kennel Up.

Good three-year old race on Thursday too. The sixth is a nine furlong, first-level allowance that has drawn some colts that have gotten some mention as ones to watch. Corinthian (Pulpit) was scratched at the gate in the Aventura; his prior was a maiden win at the Big A, and now he stretches out to two turns for Jimmy Jerkins. Todd Pletcher has Throng (Silver Deputy out of a half-sister to champion Vanlandingham), coming off a well-bet maiden win at a mile; he tries two turns as well. (Interestingly, these two contenders are both out of mares by Easy Goer.) Miner’s Lamp (Seeking the Gold) was a well-bet second to Keyed Entry in his last, and the half to Grand Slam goes beyond seven furlongs for the first time. War God (Ecton Park) graduated at Calder with the best Beyer in the field; could be one of those best Beyer overlays, but he too has never been beyond seven furlongs.

The only real contender who has won a two turn race is Jazil, who also gets a positive jockey switch to Cornelio Velasquez. He’s the type of horse I could really get into; a dead closer with classic bloodlines, the typical sucker horse like the aforementioned Prince Thou Art that always gets bet but rarely gets up. I’ve done a better job in recent years of avoiding these types, but I find myself inexorably drawn to them. It just seems so logical that they will just get better and better as the distance gets longer. I wrote about his last race and in detail on his pedigree in this post here; in short, he’s by Seeking the Gold out of a stakes winning Deputy Minister mare and his third dam is the foundation mare Best In Show. So I’ll be watching him in particular tomorrow; he could be an exciting prospect for Kiaran McLaughlin.