Indiana Steps Up

- Indiana has taken the step of barring any trainer who has been suspended for 15 days or more from transferring his/her horses to any "relative, assistant, employee, or household member." [Daily Racing Form]

The regulations ensure that trainer suspensions are meaningful and not cosmetic, said Joe Gorajec, the commission’s executive director. The betting public should be assured that a trainer is not involved with his or her stable while serving a suspension, he said.
.....
“In some jurisdictions, these suspensions have become a joke. The suspended trainer has unfettered access,” Gorajec said. “It just makes a sham of the whole transaction. This rule stops that practice.” [Bloodhorse]

The idea of the rule being too harsh on owners was brought up by the horsemen, but Gorajec said "the commission didn't believe that the argument was compelling in all cases." They did compromise however by establishing the 15-day minimum. They're the first state to impose this kind of ban, and perhaps some jurisdiction needed to break the ice before others will follow. As I've said before, it seems to me like a worthy attempt to put some teeth into the suspensions, while limiting the damage to owners who may be innocent (and I guess also to those who are not).

- The New York Times reported on the front page on Monday (here via the Int'l Herald Tribune, no reg req.) that gambling revenues in Atlantic City are poised to decrease from last year, the first time that has ever happened since casinos opened there 1977. And guess what is being blamed?

One culprit can be found 77 miles, or 124 kilometers, away at the Philadelphia Park Casino, a low-frills slot parlor that opened in December amid the chain restaurants of Bensalem, Pennsylvania. There, on a sunny Sunday afternoon, sat Ron Thomas, 72, who would agree to talk only if it did not interfere with his simultaneous play of a pair of $5 Double Diamond slot machines.

"The wife and I, we went to Atlantic City around once a month for years," said Thomas, a retiree who lives in Churchville, Pennsylvania. "But this place, we're 10 minutes away."

Why would he ever return to Atlantic City, Thomas asked, when it would require a 90-minute car ride "to do exactly what we can do here?"

There's also Yonkers and the racino at Chester Downs, which is owned and run by Harrah's, which therefore competes with its own property in Atlantic City. The article says that Atlantic City sees the proposed Indian casino in the Catskills as its greatest threat, but there's also Aqueduct (one of these days) and the two casinos slated to go up in Philadelphia.

Thus one can see how the Meadowlands is caught in a vise here. The track is already severely hurt by the competition from Yonkers, and has cut back its live racing to four days a week. It's obvious that Atlantic City interests will never accede to allowing slots at the Meadowlands (as hypocritical as that may be for Harrah's), or Monmouth for that matter, and that the influential South Jersey legislative contingent will always work against the idea.

Discreet Cat Ready

- Just when I was wondering when, or if, Discreet Cat was going to have workout, Discreet Cat had a workout, going a mile in 1:38 on Saturday.

Simon Crisford, the Godolphin racing manager, commented: "Discreet Cat went super this afternoon. It was a nice solid bit of work which will put him spot on for the Dubai World Cup.

"He picked up in the last quarter of a mile and went several lengths ahead at the finish," he said. [Khaleej Times Online]

John Kimmel and Kent Desormeaux flew to Saudi Arabia for the final tuneup for Pleasant Tap Premium Tap (I knew I was going to do that one of these days....don't worry, going away this weekend and I need the break), estimated at six furlongs in around 1:15. That is a damn long way to travel for a minute and fifteen second workout. “He worked very well and everything seems to be on target....He looks good, his weight is great and his soundness is very good,” Kimmel reported. [Dubai Racing Club Blog]

Lava Man worked his way to a trip to Dubai, where he'll run on the grass in the Duty Free. That definitely adds even more panache to what should be an amazing morning of racing, as strange as it all may seem. It will seem that way to me; bizarre even, that one of the more monumental confrontations that any of us have seen in some time, will take place on, for us, a Saturday morning in March, in a distant foreign land, in front of people who don't bet. It doesn't seem quite fair, does it?

Weekend Beyers

Cobalt Blue 96
Curlin 97
Street Sense / Any Given Saturday 101
Song of Navarone 102

And on the distaff side ...

Cottom Blossom 82
Sweet Fervor 102

Not too fast for the TP Derby, so perhaps any worries about the colts bouncing are overblown? And doesn't Song of Navarone's race further flatter Ravel and Liquidity?

Street Sense A Wrap?

- Ed Fountaine of the NY Post is a bit skeptical of Street Sense. Not because he's found the shortest way home in his last two races, but because he came out on Saturday wearing front bandages, as he did in the Juvenile in November.

One explanation for the Breeders' Cup Jinx is that nine Juvenile winners never even made it to the Derby. Might "Sense" fall among their number? When he wore front bandages for the first time in the BC Juvenile, trainer Carl Nafzger said it was to protect him after he bruised a foot. When Street Sense came out wearing them again 41/2 months later, you had to wonder if the rumors over the winter about his physical condition had substance.

Now, front bandages on a Triple Crown contender don't make him an automatic toss. In recent years, Fusaichi Pegasus won the Derby, Smarty Jones the Derby and Preakness, and Afleet Alex the Preakness and Belmont Stakes with front wraps on. Then again, none of them lasted long after that. Fusaichi won one race after the Derby; "Smarty" and "Alex" never raced again after the Belmont. [NY Post]

- Hard Spun continued his preparation for Saturday's Lane's End with a five furlong move in 1:00.60 on the Polytrack at Turfway this morning.

Notes - March 19

- Bob and John, honored as the Aiken Trained Horse of the Year (must have been an extremely slow year), will make his return in the Tokyo City Handicap at Santa Anita on March 31.

- Wayne Lukas, undeterred by Flying First Class' 8th place finish in the Rebel, plans to start him in the Arkansas Derby on April 14. Lukas blamed himself for not doing enough with the colt. “I’ve got to go back and put some bottom on him....He’s a quality horse. I’m not wrong on the horse. I’m just wrong on how I handled him.” [Arkansas Democrat Gazette] He made similar remarks regarding Pegasus Wind when I interviewed him at Saratoga during my brief fling with being an actual reporter. It may be worth noting that Pegasus Wind won his next outing.

- Any Limit was run down late on Saturday in the Shirley Jones at Gulfstream, denied her third straight stakes win by Kinsman Stable's homebred Sweet Fervor. It was the latter's first graded stakes win, and her second win in as many starts after coming back off two disappointing stakes efforts last spring at Oaklawn. Trainer Bill Mott explained: "After the Fantasy, she just wasn’t traveling well and we decided to stop on her. She didn’t have any serious problems or need surgery. She just needed time." [Bloodhorse]

She's a four-year old daughter of Seeking the Gold, and a half-sister to Concerto, the sire of Bellamy Road, who is standing for just $12,500 in Kentucky.

It was a reversal of fortunes for Kinsman/Mott on the day. Earlier, their first-time starter and homebred Lightning Road was sent off as the 4-5 favorite, pressed the leader but faded to third. Nick Zito, having a relatively slow meeting at GP, took the race with his dead-on-the-board first timer Banque Royale; 5-1 morning line, 11-1 at post time. You couldn't have liked his chances as he seemed to be slipping back from his stalking position on the turn, but he took the Street Sense route up the rail to victory. By Bankers Gold, this colt is out of the Fit to Fight stakes winner Fit For a Queen, and is a half to Zito's stakes winning Royal Assault. Fit For a Queen is a half to the dam of my still-recovering filly Christening.

- Merv Griffin had a nice Saturday; Stevie Wonderboy had a bullet work, and Cobalt Blue wired the field in a weak edition of the San Felipe Stakes. Merv told the San Diego Union-Tribune: "..To me, the words Cobalt Blue sound like action. I thought it would be a good name....But today, he's Cobalt Green.” Er...oh yeah. It was St. Patricks Day, that's it. This son of Golden Missile ran a pretty nice race, basically running at a 24 second-per-quarter rate throughout; at least until his final sixteenth of 6.48. His next start is said to be the Illinois Derby.

Baffert's Air Commander was the 6-5 favorite, but settled for second.

“He’s a big horse....He can’t quicken. I knew we were in trouble when I saw the fractions. At the half, they were walking. When they sprinted home, he just doesn’t have that acceleration. He ran well.” [Bloodhorse]

Curlin

- Curlin had shown speed in his seven furlong debut, but in the Rebel, as related by the somewhat more descriptive than usual chartcaller at Oaklawn, he did not break all that well. So he found himself in the second tier, some 5 1/2 lengths behind front running Xchanger (who hadn't shown any early speed since his debut last August). Funny that I wrote that Teuflesberg wouldn't be able to lope along on the lead in 1:12 in change considering the way I thought that the pace would set up, but had he not been unprepared for the start, he very well could have been the leader. Jamie Sanders said:

"The start really hurt him. He hopped pretty badly at the break, and that cost him position. Considering that, he ran a good race. He made a good run along with the winner, and finished well. I'm proud of him." [BRIS]

She said that he'll next start in the Lexington Stakes on April 21, just two weeks before the Derby.

When Teuflesberg tried to move up on the turn, he forced Curlin four wide, but that wasn't stopping the son of the stakes-winner producing machine Smart Strike from easily sweeping by Xchanger and Flying First Class, the latter the 9-5 favorite for Lukas, ending up 8th, ouch. He bounded to the lead, and ran straight down the stretch until bearing out a bit when I believe I saw, on the small screen on my laptop, Albarado hitting him left handed a couple of times. (I must admit that I didn't even know that the race was on ESPN as I watched the Rangers' touchdown win over the Bruins.) He got the final sixteenth in 6.55 seconds; and gained a length in a final 2 1/2 furlongs of 32.19, which is a rate of about 25.75 seconds, on a track that produced sluggish times throughout the day.

It was quite a display by a colt making only his second career start. The Arkansas Derby is to be his next race. And despite the fact that we all know that horses who make their debut in Febraury don't win Derbies, you can be sure that Jess Jackson and company didn't shell out the big bucks with any other race in mind.

“No, I never felt I was rushing the colt,” said Asmussen, who also won the Rebel in 2000 with Snuck In and 2002 with Windward Passage. “I know what he is capable of doing. So much was different for him today. This was his first time to go two turns. I needed to just see where we are with him.”

Asked if Curlin represents his best chance to win the Kentucky Derby, Asmussen said, “absolutely.” [Arkansas Democrat Gazette]

Curlin was a $57,000 bargain as a yearling, so the owners who reportedly sold a majority interest to Jackson for $3 million after his debut win made out pretty well themselves. Curlin is out of a Deputy Minister mare and this is the distaff family of the ill-fated Grade 1 winner Exogenous, and the champion juvenile filly Countess Diana (they all share the same third dam).

- Lively discussion about the Tampa Bay race, and the consensus seems to be that Street Sense may have had too hard of a race in his first try in 4 1/2 months. I had written that Frank Lyons on TVG was more concerned about the effect of the race on Any Given Saturday, and I agreed with him, but most of those who have commented seem to disagree. Interesting that Pletcher acknowledged that Street Sense was actually not in the preferred path this time, despite his saving ground.

"We got the trip we wanted...Just watching the races today I didn't think the inside was necessarily a great place to be. So we got in the position we wanted, and what can you say? We got beat by a nose to a very good horse.

"You can't take anything away from either horse's effort. I was very pleased with him. Sometimes you lose a battle, and you win the war. We'll see what happens." [Tampa Tribune]

We may not have to wait long to see what happens, as the two are both supposed to run next in the Blue Grass.

- Curlin was actually only the third stakes winner of the year for Smart Strike. Twilight Meteor and Super Freaky are the other two.

Racino, Integrity Reviews Drag On

- March 16 has come and gone, but there's still no approval of the Aqueduct racino, despite that date having been reported to be a target date set by the state early this month. And though Charlie Hayward told Paul Post of the Saratogian last week that the talks were "very productive and very fruitful," they have obviously not been very conclusive. Spitzer has been able to resolve longstanding and contentious issues such as workers compensation, but he may have met his match in New York racing, and the powerful land claim issue which Charlie Hayward and NYRA hold over this whole process. NYRA also has their lawsuit against the Pataki Administration's stonewalling of racino approval, an accusation that seems credible to me, and one that this corner is anxious to see play out in court (if only because it will make for a lot of good subject matter). But I wonder if the inability of NYRA and a far more willing, if not anxious, partner in Spitzer to reach an agreement is detrimental to that case?

The latest timetable on the new and not-so-improved franchise process is that the bidders will present plans to a state panel on April 10 and 11, and Governor Eliot Spitzer will name a track operator by June 1; this as reported by Paul Post, who has recently been providing the most timely coverage of the situation. Are we to assume that comprehensive new laws and a determination of the fate of the OTB's will be concluded by then too? It seems laughable to think that those issues will be resolved in 2 1/2 months. The governor's office also announced the "integrity reviews" of each principal.

[Spitzer spokesperson Paul] Larrabee said the inspector general will review each entity and its principals, but it's unclear exactly who that includes. New York Yankees general partner Steve Swindal, hotel-casino-developer Richard Fields and global real estate owner Tishman Speyer are Excelsior Racing's principals.

In contrast, NYRA and Empire both have chief executive officers and full boards of 15 to 25 members each. It's unclear yet if all board members will be subject to integrity reviews.

Reviews might include data searches, interviews and examinations of each person's records and backgrounds.

This is threatening to become Integrity Gone Wild, starring a governor who I imagine has devised this process at least in part to once again emphasize his own virtue. But I don't know if it's an essential use of my tax money to pay for a credit check of Frank Stronach or to have Steve Wynn piss in a cup. We know these guys (and come to think of it, is there a single female player in this whole affair?), and none of them...well, most of them don't have police records, and do we really care if, say, one principal's dead grandfather may have loaned money to reputed mobsters?

The integrity issues that I believe are important are the ones that may never get raised. Are we to expect a Spitzer-appointed board to grill Excelsior's Richard Fields about his cash and in-kind contributions to the governor's campaign? Will the majority Senate Republicans demand that Empire explain the motives of Jared Abbruzzese in his business dealings with Senator Bruno while the former was a director of Empire? Will anyone demand an explanation of the circumstances by which many principals of a group that raised money while billing themselves as non-partisan and issued a final report recommending a for-profit model, then became part of an actual bidder employing that very strategy as the basis for their proposal? If the very existence of Empire is based on deceit, isn't that more relevant that the minutiae of the individuals' backgrounds?

Freed by Spitzer's new procedure to define itself on its own terms, NYRA is playing the PR game, putting maximum spin on the departure of Bill Nader to the Hong Kong Jockey Club.

“Thoroughbred Racing is a global industry, and it is no surprise that when the HKJC searched the globe for top racing talent, their search led them to NYRA. NYRA’s record of integrity and expertise in racing is simply unmatched.” [NYRA]

Nice one. But it may (or may not) be worth noting this: Nader is the second high-ranking official to depart NYRA recently. Senior Vice President for Customer Service Kathy Marino is leaving, too, prompting speculation NYRA's days might be numbered. [The Saratogian]

Street Sense's Saturday

- Hope you got to see the Tampa Bay Derby (if not, be sure to do so on Cal Racing or the NTRA site). Wow, this was a tremendous race, with Street Sense duplicating his rail skimming ride in the Juvenile (as duly and promptly noted by track announcer Richard Grunder). I was rooting for Any Given Saturday, not because I bet on him at 3-5, but because he was really the first two-year old last year who made me think Derby, and he's been #2 on my Derby list.

Pletcher's colt was clearly the best horse in the race of course, three wide on the turn with Velazquez peeking behind at Street Sense several times. When he peeked and saw that Borel had found an inside path, he got busy on his colt, who came back at the end, and lost on a head bob. Frank Lyons, on TVG, was saying before the race that Any Given Saturday was extremely "fit;" he was implying that he may have been too much so with the main objective still seven weeks away. After the race, Lyons opined that the race could have taken a lot out of him at this stage. Pletcher had been planning to run him back a month hence in the Blue Grass, and three weeks later in the Derby. I'm interested to see if he adheres to those plans.

Lyons was less concerned about the effect of the race on Street Sense, and I would agree about that. Yes, he (again) benefited from a ground saving trip, but he gamely fought off a very classy three-year old in his first race in over four months. It's a great start for Nafzger; he got his horse a solid prep, one without undue stress, yet giving him the experience of hooking a determined rival in the stretch. And on top of that, he got a win when he didn't need one. We can certainly expect that Street Sense can improve off the effort. But I think it's fair to remain just a bit skeptical of a colt who has now gotten the most perfect of trips in two consecutive races. And this time, he needed every saved step.

Notable Works

- A couple of notable workout notifications received in my inbox. Stevie Wonderboy worked three furlongs in a bullet (of 18) 35.40 on the Cushion Track at Hollywood.

And finally, a workout for Belgravia, the Tabor/Magnier/Zayat-owned colt who is going to the Derby even if trainer Patrick Biancone has to hoist him on his shoulders and carry him to the starting gate himself. He's training for the Lane's End, but Biancone, for whom it's normal to lose his mind this time of year, had made it clear that he'll run for the roses off of one prep if necessary. The $2 million son of Mr. Greeley drilled a half in 48 seconds (5/24) on the Polytrack at Keeneland.

Bargain Basement

- An interesting account in the Arkansas Democrat Gazette of how Teuflesberg came to the barn of former Zito assistant Jamie Sanders (who is a co-owner of the colt) for only $9,000 at the Fasig Tipton yearling sale in Lexington, in October, 2005.

When Teuflesberg entered the ring, Sanders said the sales company’s site was almost deserted because it was near the end of the three-day sale (999 horses were entered ), and the weather had turned raw.

But Sanders and Kelly stuck around after being told the colt they liked so much...was being sent through without a reserve price.
....
Literally, Sanders said, there was no competition.

Teuflesberg had already gone through Fasig-Tipton’s Kentucky select yearling sale in July without being sold.

“It was just luck,” said Sanders, who owns 25 percent of Teuflesberg.

I guess that sometimes it's just a matter of being patient and persistent, and in this case, it's paid off with a speedy and durable colt, with an interesting pedigree for stretching out, who has earned black type and purse money of $317,931.

Teuflesberg is entered to make his 14th lifetime start in the Rebel on Saturday. If he actually does go on to the Derby, and assuming he has one more prep after this, he'll come into the big race with more career starts than [insert any two others, perhaps three] combined. However, he sure ain't going to be loping along on the lead to a 48 second half or a 1:12 three quarters, not with the two intriguing colts coming out of maiden races entered. Flying First Class comes off his 107 Beyer maiden win for Lukas, and Curlin off his 102. The latter was sold after that race, and will start for Steve Asmussen.

So Sanders says "I would think that he'll probably be sitting third." She said that the colt picked up the pace throughout his last workout and that she loves how he's coming into the Rebel. [DRF] And with the two recent graduates poised to be the favorites in the race, I'd take a shot with Teuflesberg at a decent price (though perhaps a bit more than his 9-2 morning line.)

Baffert Hoping for a Shot

- Garrett Gomez chose to ride Air Commander over Cobalt Blue in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday, a Grade 2 stakes which on paper is little more than a non-winners of two other than.

"“Not taking anything away from Cobalt Blue.....but I think right now he might be a little behind some of these colts. Air Commander has run two turns three times now, and that gives him an advantage in my mind.” [Bloodhorse]

For Bob Baffert, Air Commander may be his main hope of getting to the Derby, though as of now, he's nothing more than a first-level allowance winner with an career high 89 Beyer. But he has improved his numbers with each start, and, being a son of Point Given, you can expect improvement. But probably not enough to make him a legitimate contender in May. "The only Derby I'm going to right now is the Derby restaurant," Baffert told the Form.

Air Commander is a half-brother to Medallist, who won graded stakes at 6 1/2 furlongs, and a mile and an eighth (the one-turn Dwyer at Belmont). (Medallist is standing for $8,500 at Three Chimneys.)

Cobalt Blue (Golden Missile) has never been beyond six furlongs, and comes off an impressive win at that distance in his 2007 debut, which was his first race in six months. Merv paid $325,000 for this one, and is dreaming Derby once again. "The riders use one word to describe him — awesome...He really is. This horse just want to run. A racey horse. Big, powerful." [Houston Chronicle]

- Now that the decision to send Lava Man to Dubai has been made official (pending of course that March 18 workout), Doug O'Neill seems to be changing his tune. Previously, perhaps in an effort to dissuade the owners from shipping the horse halfway around the world, he'd said that Lava Man may not be ready for the Pacific Classic in August should he go. Now he's talking about the June 30 Hollywood Gold Cup.

"We're hoping the fans of Lava Man will be proud when they see him run on Dubai World Cup day....If everything goes well there, it's all systems go for a third Hollywood Gold Cup." [Daily Breeze]

Start Making Sense of Derby Picture

- Street Sense is 4-5, Any Given Saturday 9-5 in the Tampa Bay Derby, and I guess you know who I like. Any Given Saturday has been atop my Todd Ratings all year, and this is showtime, as he faces the Juvenile champ. Just the usual warning, from trainer Carl Nafzger himself, regarding Street Sense, as is the case with any horse whose main objective is down the road.

"It's not so much where he finishes but how he finishes because after that race we have to make a big step forward to the next race."
.......
"If we don't win it, we're not dead....But I would like to win it." [USA Today]

Well, he has to say that he'd like to win. But I don't think he really cares, and I just don't see how you can take a short win price under those circumstances. Especially since he won the Breeders Cup on that rail, and recent developments indicate that it may have been as golden as some believe. I've been neutral on the issue, but a poor effort by Street Sense on Saturday, which would come a week after Round Pond faltered in her return, and in the wake of Dreaming of Anna's disappointing 2007 form, would align me squarely with Pletcher, who said that the rail was a "conveyor belt" that day.

The Florida Oaks on the undercard is an interesting affair which features the return of Pletcher's Cotton Blossom, the 6-5 morning line favorite despite the presence of Zito's red hot Autobahn Girl. Cotton Blossom (Broken Vow) has been out since being four wide on that Breeders Cup track, and running third in the Juv Fillies. Two weekends ago, Pletcher won graded stakes with Wait A While and King of the Roxy, who had both been gone since the Breeders Cup as well.

Coming back from an even longer break is Desire to Excel, who you may remember crushing Pletcher's Octave in the Astoria at 24-1 in July. She then ran second to Cotton Blossom in the Schuylerville. That was at six furlongs, and Cotton Blossom hasn't won around two turns, though that wide BC race was certainly a good effort. This will be the first two turn try for Desire to Excel, who has bloodlines considered unfashionable by today's commercial standards. He's by Mt. Livermore (Blushing Groom), out of a mare by Quick Dip, a son of Vigors/Grey Dawn/Herbager...so there's a lot of stamina on that distaff side at least. She's also inbred 3x4 to Crimson Satan, and has only instance of Northern Dancer or Mr. Prospector in her entire pedigree (ND).

The aforementioned Autobahn Girl, who has nary a trace of ND or Mr. P blood (by AP Indy, out of stakes winning Saoirse [Cure the Blues/Stop the Music]) has never been worse than second in seven starts, four of them wins. Zito went slowly with this filly; her last race, the 7th of her career, was her stakes debut; and a winning one over this track with a sweeping move on the turn.

Trainee - another filly with no traces of today's two most prominent bloodlines - ran second to Autobahn Girl in that stakes. She had no real excuse, but looks to me like she has some potential upside. Trainee has improved her Beyer in each of her five starts, and added blinkers in that last race. She's by Silver Charm, out of a stakes winning mare by Major Impact (Roberto/Hail to Reason/Turn-to). Her second dam, the stakes winning Lonely Girl, is a full sister to the 1994 Distaff winner One Dreamer.

- Street Sense has a fan in trainer Richard Violette Jr.

He's training spectacularly....I see him train every day at Palm Meadows, and if I had him I wouldn't be worried. Street Sense looks like he's the real deal there." [Louisvile Courier-Journal]

A couple more opinions on the untimely retirement of Holy Roman Emperor. Jerry Klein of FOX Sports:

About his much-anticipated battles with Teofilo this spring, British racing fans can only speculate on what might have been. As for his place in racing history, Holy Roman Emperor forever will be remembered not for his ability but as a symbol of his owner's unflinching love of money, not sport.

And Steven Crist, in the Daily Racing Form:

Unlike some other early retirements in this country, there at least was no doubletalk about phantom injuries tragically forcing a horse to the breeding shed. Nor should Holy Roman Emperor's youth and inexperience affect his success at stud. Two of this country's greatest sires, Hail to Reason and Raise a Native, went to stud after injuries cut their careers short, and Danehill's sire, Danzig, raced only four times.

All of those runners, however, had legitimate career-ending injuries, whereas Holy Roman Emperor is believed to be the first completely sound classic prospect sent to stud after only a juvenile campaign, simply to generate fees a year sooner. It marks a new low point in what the breeding community considers an acceptable racing career.

Ravel

- Brad Free, writing in the subscription-only DRF Plus section of the Form, laments the lack of an effective speedball in the California three-year old division this year, writing that it seems is as if the synthetic era - slow early, fast late - already has begun.

Earlier I proposed that Ravel be downgraded on the basis of Liquidity's disappointing showing at Fair Grounds, and Free expounds on the idea:

Ravel became all the rage Feb. 3 in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes, another slow-tempo race that already has been exposed. The early fractions for the 1 1/8-mile Sham were 48.08 and 1:12.41. The six-furlong fraction was at least one full second slower that par.

Ravel tucked behind the walking pace, angled out at the top of the lane, and won by a length with a solid Beyer Speed Figure of 102. Was the race legitimate? Perhaps it was not. Because when runner-up Liquidity faced legitimate fractions next out in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, he fell apart in deep stretch.

Pace-figure analysis identifies potential vulnerability. Horses do look good in soft-pace races such as the Sham. But when those same horses (i.e., Liquidity) face legitimate, faster fractions, they often crumble.

(He actually ran a 104 Beyer.) But despite Free's comments, and as much as I'd really like to, upon closer inspection, I certainly can't write off this horse. He may very well have benefited from sitting a couple of lengths behind a slow pace. But he started rolling around the turn, at a point at which Liquidity had picked up the pace; after the six furlong mark, he went 24.24 to the eighth pole as Ravel swung out way wide turning for home. According to Forumlator, Ravel came home in 35 3/5 seconds, wearing down a persistent Liquidity.

Another interesting aspect of Ravel's pp's is the way he's been pounded at the tote. You expect Smith/Tabor horses to get bet if they're live, and this colt has been as live as they come. He was the 9-5 favorite in his first start (7-2 morning line), despite the presence of eventual winner Teuflesberg, who had been keeping graded stakes company and had run second to Scat Daddy in the Sanford. After graduating at even money in his two-turn debut, he was then the close second choice, at 5-2, in the Sham, which was his first race against winners, and where he was facing a horse in Liquidity who had just lost by a neck to Stormello in the G1 Hollywood Futurity.

Ravel could do much for the fortunes of his sire Fusaichi Pegasus should he show well in Triple Crown races. Though the stallion seems to have a fair number of stakes winners overseas, Ravel was only his 4th graded winner in this country, and first since Bandini took the Skip Away early in 2006 (Roman Ruler and Andromeda's Hero are the other two). Ravel is out of Let, a Grade 2 winner (CD Distaff) by AP Indy. Let is a half sister to Eagle Cafe, a Grade 1 winner on turf and dirt in Japan.

So, I went from being negative on Ravel when I started to write this post, to finding myself quite intrigued. Who says I'm not open minded? I don't know if Free is correct to surmise that a faster pace would necessarily be bad for this horse. Looking at his form, he just looks like a closer who was a bit closer with a slow pace. I would think that if Liquidity gets involved with King of the Roxy or Cobalt Blue in the Santa Anita Derby, it could only be to Ravel's advantage.

As far as the Derby goes, it would only be his 5th career race, and just his third of this year. So I certainly wouldn't say that his 11-1 odds in Pool 2 represent anything close to value. But I can see why he'd attract attention. And I haven't even mentioned that he's trained by Pletcher.

Good to be Green

- Thanks to the reader who sent in this Green Monkey photo. And how appropriate given the recent news that everybody's favorite $16 million equine is soon to resume training.

“He is at Ashford Stud (Coolmore’s Kentucky division) recovering from a muscle injury; we’re hoping he’ll go back in training with Todd Pletcher in a few weeks,” said a Coolmore spokesman. [Bloodhorse]

Too late for the Classics of course, but I'm sure we could get, what, around 20-1 in Vegas for the Classic?

- Here in New York, Excelsior Racing has lost a key player in Howard Wolfson, their sharp-tongued spokesperson who has taken a leave of absence from the PR firm Glover Park to form a new agency. Called Gotham Acme, it will be 100% devoted to furthering the presidential ambitions of Hilary Clinton, which will be a full-time endeavor to be sure. As we've noted before, Wolfson has been one of her most senior advisors. With the calculated mechanism of the RFP process and its precise points system having given way to what promises to be a political and public relations free-for-all, Wolfson's ample talents will certainly be missed.

And rumor has it that NYRA's VP Bill Nader may be leaving the embattled association to go work for the Hong Kong Racing Association! If that's true, is his decision to leave at a time when things seem to be looking up for NYRA something we should consider in trying to handicap the franchise race?

Tom Precious reports in Bloodhorse that the six current bidders have been notified that they have until March 31 to submit their proposals. NYRA, Empire, and Excelsior are not required to submit anything in writing, unless they wish to amend their bids, which you can be 100% sure they will indeed be doing. The letter to the groups, signed by Richard Rifkin, special counsel to Gov. Eliot Spitzer, said the governor expects to make a decision on his choice for the franchise on or about May 25.

- Here's another indication of the potential problems looming for the industry as slots and casinos proliferate, especially in the Northeast. Empire Resorts, owner of Monticello Raceway, is still losing money despite its racino. In the fourth quarter, revenue from the video gaming machines fell by $400,000, or 2 percent, because of competition from Yonkers and Pennsylvania casinos. Empire is counting on a full-fledged Indian casino to bail it out.

On the flip side, consider the Fair Grounds, where purses have been boosted by a whopping 25% for non-stakes over the last two weeks of the meeting. And this is all from increased business on the racing side, as the racino has not yet been built.

The Fair Grounds, owned by Louisville-based Churchill Downs Inc., said the latest increase is because of better-than-expected business at the track and its eight off-track betting facilities in southeastern Louisiana, along with record handles for the Louisiana Derby card last Saturday. [AP]

Derby Top Ten

- Here's this week's LATG Derby Top Ten of horses and people who I think will be in the news on or around the first Saturday in May.

1) Great Hunter - Doug O'Neill's colt is chilling I guess; no workouts since his win in the Bob Lewis, but it's only been since March 3, and he's not supposed to run again until April 14. That means he will have gone four months before his three-year old debut, then another six weeks until his next scheduled start, the Blue Grass. And then just three weeks until the Derby. That seems like the most radical plan of the two-preppers, unless Stormello chooses the Arkansas Derby (according to the Downey Profile, trainer William Currin is also considering the Grade I Florida Derby or Group 2 UAE Derby on March 31, the Santa Anita Derby on April 7).

During all that time, he'll prep and race strictly on synthetic surfaces: the Cushion Track at Hollywood, where he's apparently been thriving, and the Polytrack at Keeneland. A Derby win could portend a whole new way of thinking about matters not solely related to the number of preps.

And the news comes that there's a lien on Great Hunter regarding the horse's past owner, the wife of a man convicted several times in the 1980's and 1990's for fraud in Texas, Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania. [DRF] I don't see where there should be a big problem. After all, she can just pick up the phone, and make the CashCall!

2) Any Given Saturday - Thanks to reader Kevin for boosting me back on the bandwagon by reminding me that Bluegrass Cat took the same route to the Derby last year, and ran second to Barbaro (we won't consider, for now, the fact that Bluegrass Cat benefited from a picture perfect trip that day). Still, it is at odds with Pletcher's oft-repeated preference to have more than three weeks. But he's still my top Toddster pick. Putting aside, just for a moment, the little matter of quality, I think his demonstrated versatility as to running style makes him a far more likely Derby winner than either Scat Daddy or Circular Quay.

As to that quality, we'll find out more on Saturday when he meets Street Sense in the Tampa Bay Derby. The Juvenile champ breezed a half mile in 51 seconds at Palm Meadows. He had been picking up the pace in prior breezes. Carl Nafzger said: "This is a race we need to go on...If we don't win it, it doesn't mean we are dead, but we would like to win it." [Albany Times Union]

3) Scooter Libby, pardoned by the president, celebrates at the Derby. But he tells Steve Haskin that Gary Stevens' wife, Angie Athayde-Stevens, is an undercover agent for the TRPB. And whatsmore, it was she who sent husband Gary to Great Lakes Downs to investigate the suspected race fixing that still has jockeys barred from some tracks. Later, Libby says that he doesn't recall his conversation with Haskin, saying he was too preoccupied handicapping the $1 million Pick Four.

4) Circular Quay replaces Scat Daddy on the list, on the basis of what I deem to be a superior performance in the Louisiana Derby as opposed to Scat Daddy's FOY. The truth is, I'm not really crazy about his Derby chances because of his lack of early speed; but he earns a spot on merit. If I had any guts, I'd put a horse like Chelokee, who earned a 91 Beyer for his troubled win at Gulfstream, in this spot instead. But as Pletcher pointed out, "The Derby is always a super-hot pace...If that's the case, this horse will benefit." [AP] If he can weave his way through traffic, that is.

5) Nobiz Like Shobiz - Blinkers do the trick, as Barclay Tagg's colt puts on his game face and runs straight and true in the Wood in a devastating Bellamy Road-like performance. The change of equipment make him so focused on racing that he's seen studying race replays of his rivals, poring over the Racing Form, and practicing lead changes in his stall.

6) Holy Roman Emperor, retired to replace George Washington in the breeding shed, proves to be infertile himself. He returns to training, but only briefly, as he's called on to help out Coomore again, this time as a temporary replacement for the assistant cafeteria manager while she's away on maternity leave.

7) Notional - Quibble if you must over lackluster speed figures, name me one other contender who has run and won twice in 2007, both in graded stakes. He's proven he can run outside of California, and with the Florida Derby scheduled to be his next start, he will come into the Derby off of a natural progression of distances - the mile of the San Rafael, mile and a sixteenth of the Risen Star, and the nine furlong test at Gulfstream. And like O'Neill's other contenders, he's happily training on synthetic dirt. "I think the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park has been a godsend to keeping them sounder." [Thoroughbred Times]

I've taken Liquidity out for now, though O'Neill took the blame for his poor showing in the Louisiana Derby."I didn't train him as hard as I should have. He's better than that. He had a little belly on him, and he was a jerk to be saddled. He was way too fresh." Despite that, I would tend to downgrade Ravel, who beat Liquidity narrowly in the Sham, and who I'm not crazy about in the first place.

8) Hard Spun has arrived at Turfway, and on Wednesday, he got a taste of Polytrack (hopefully not literally) with a half mile work in 47.20. With the Lane's End still a week away, not much more to add for this well-bred son of Danzig, except to point out that he's still undefeated on tracks other than Oaklawn, a surface he was said to dislike.

9) Looking to get some extra bang for their buck this year, Yum! Brands brings their famed NYC Taco Bell rats to the Derby (here, if you really need to see the video again, yuck.) They sign autographs, perform some Latin ballads, and participate in an exhibition race, the Alberto Gonzales Stakes, to be run at 220 feet through the main dining room, FOR RATS AND WEASELS WHO HAVE NEVER TOLD THE TRUTH SINCE FEBRUARY 15, 2006. Though eligible under the conditions of the race, Scooter Libby is too busy doping out the ten cent superfectas from Hollywood Park to participate.

10) Rags to Riches - Sure, I'll bite. After all, if I had the plodding Jazil on the list at this time last year based on his stellar pedigree, I just have to have his half-sister on it now, especially considering that she's already proven herself to be a more handy horse. She has a ways to go, with only three starts under her belt, and seemed a bit green in upper stretch in her Santa Anita Oaks. But she was very wide on the first turn that day, and showed some push button acceleration while three wide on the second. And oh man, that pedigree is hard to resist.

Greener Pastures Await Highland Cat

- Highland Cat was bumped sideways a couple of times coming out of the gate, and was driven very wide in the early stages. Truth is, he probably would have found himself in a similar position early regardless. These were quick horses; or at least the runaway winner Mend was. He put away Skip Along Jet with consecutive quarters of 22.6, and finished up in 1:10.19; the feature went in 1:10.44. It's reported that Highland Cat galloped out well, and passed "a lot" of horses after an additional 3/16ths.

The best news of all is the condition book, which contains, on April 18, a $35,000 claiming race on the turf for non-winners of two lifetime. That's what I'm talking about! It's like they wrote the race just for him! It's five weeks from today; he should be fit and fresh and ready to go on his favorite surface.

As Expected...

- Highland Cat was bumped coming out of the gate according to the race chart, but was clearly outclassed regardless in a field that was just plain too tough. He did beat one horse. As I correctly surmised (and if I was at good at picking winners as I am at predicting odds.....) the Servis entry was favored. But the Moss Pace Figures did correctly indicate that Mend was the speed of the speed, and 8-1 was a pretty nice price I must say.

As for our favorite grey gelding, I'm hoping that he doesn't get discouraged by the race. Perhaps one more dirt race, and we can finally get him back on the green promised land of the turf course.

Big A Racino Coming - One of These Days...

- It's March 14. The Albany Times Union had reported on the 1st that State officials are looking to have a deal with NYRA and its business partner, MGM Mirage, by March 16 to approve construction of the Aqueduct racino. Two days to go, and no announcement as of yet. But Charles Hayward told Paul Post of the Saratogian: "We've had discussions and they've been very productive and very fruitful." So perhaps an agreement is imminent, though Post also reports that NYRA, MGM and Lottery have a March 29 court date when the VLT deal might finally be approved.

The State Senate approved $23 million in financing (with an option for another $9 million if necessary) to get NYRA through the rest of the year.

Tough Task for Highland Cat

- I'm in a bad mood. And looking at the competition in Highland Cat's race in the first at the Big A on Wednesday doesn't help (not to mention that it's another weekday, mid-day afternoon affair). It's six furlongs for open $25K claimers, and it's a tough field for a horse coming from a bottom basement maiden claimer. The race he was intended for, a $30K route for non-winners of two lifetime, was not used. Two horses are coming off 80 Beyers; by contrast, Highland Cat ran a 61 in winning on Feb 22 against an awful field. And I noticed that the Form's Dave Litfin downgraded the effort further by saying that he Rallied up gold rail. Thanks for that, Dave.

As I'd mentioned, there was talk of scratching him, but I guess the attitude is to let him get some work as grass racing approaches. There is a lot of speed in the race, so the hope is that a contested pace will perhaps allow him to pick up some purse money. Or at least get some exercise.

Going by the Moss Pace Figures, Mend, second time off the claim for Scott Lake, looks like he could be the speed of the speed. But I think he'll get a run for the money from Skip Along Jet, dropping from 50K company for Jason Servis, six for 19 over the past two years with horses dropping 50% in claiming price. He comes out of a really, really tough 50K event against Laptop Computer, Trailing Twelve, and Crafty Tricker, all of whom ran very well in allowance company in their next races.

More Impact also looks tough, with competitive Beyers and Moss...Mosses? Mosss? Mossies?....pace figures moving up in class for Contessa, leading all trainers with 63 wins (out of 338 runners, for 18%. The second through fifth trainers all have higher win percentages.) The trainer is in a bit of a mini-slump with two winners from his last 27 runners.

There's also Gentlemen Only, a speed horse shipping in from Philly Park, and this is the main problem with the Moss figs thus far. They're not quite complete in terms of track coverage...tracks like Philly, Monmouth, and Charles Town don't yet have ratings. (Seven major tracks that are currently open do, as well as the rest of their respective circuits.) I think that what we're all looking forward to is using these numbers to be able to compare disparate entries that have been running at all different tracks. But the others will be phased in over time. What is there now is quite comprehensive, and if you haven't seen them, the Form is offering samples to check out.

Anyway, there's a lot of speed, and Slick City News, the other half of the Jason Servis entry, looks like he can get the job done from off the pace if they do go fast early. This entry is listed at 7-2, but I think it will be lower than that. Ivory Bead, for Richard Dutrow, is listed as the 2-1 choice. He's moving up to open claimers, and if the Moss Pace Figures are to be believed, you can show this one the door along with Alberto Gonzalez.

Highland Cat can stay however. He may not have much of a shot to win this race, but he's cute. And he doesn't lie under oath to Congress.

News and Notes - March 13

- Jeff Scott of The Saratogian noticed some method to the madness that is Todd Pletcher:

Of the 14 horses who won or placed in a graded stakes over the past two weekends, none had raced within the previous four weeks. In addition, all 14 had been away from the races for at least two months during the late fall and winter; four of them hadn't raced in four months or longer.

Pletcher's runners also followed a similar workout pattern. Of the 13 for whom figures are available, all had their last published work six or seven days before racing - and all worked at the same five-furlong distance. (Many of their rivals worked three to five days before racing.) It is interesting that none of the 13 worked on the track where they'd be running that weekend. Eleven worked in Florida at either Palm Meadows or Palm Beach Downs, and two on the Cushion Track surface at Hollywood Park.

The bottom line is that all of Pletcher's horses appear to have gone into their races well rested.

So it's no suprise that the Toddster is looking at the Wood for Circular Quay, who may have become his top prospect with his win on Saturday. “The main thing is that it is four weeks out [from the Derby]....I like that extra week.” [Thoroughbred Times]

Yeah, we know that. But why, taking a look at the spreadsheet of upcoming preps over at Pulling Hair and Betting Horses, is Any Given Saturday slated for the Blue Grass, which is on April 14, just three weeks before the Derby? Does he not really think that he's the one to get him off his Derby schneid? Do I need to reevaluate my opinion that Any Given Saturday is the most likely of his to come up roses? I don't want to hear him bitch and moan about the short rest if the colt doesn't fire, like he has with Scat Daddy, referring to his Juvenile.

- I've been absolutely astounded looking at the entries and purses for Yonkers Raceway of late. It wasn't long ago that the track had trouble filling entries for four nights a week. Now, with purses swelled by slots money, they're racing six nights a week, with 13 races the minimum amount I've seen.

But veteran harness writer Ray Brienza, reporting in the Newark Star Ledger, reveals that all is not as rosy as it may seem.

As successful as Yonkers has been in breathing life in its racing program, there is also an ominous aspect too. Racing there has been averaging a pari-mutuel handle of $407,000 since it returned on Nov. 17. Of that average, only $48,000 has been bet on track. [Ed. note: !!!!!] The remainder is being bet through Off Track Betting parlors or simulcast outlets. The low on track handle means that there are few bettors in the stands, even though there are crowds at the 4,200 Video Lottery Terminals next door. The harness handle has increased on Saturday nights with over $800,000 being bet. But only 12 percent of those wagers were made on track.

So although horsemen can delight in the increased purses which help insure the future of the sport from the horsemen's standpoint, the sport's future seems bleak from a different view. Attendance has been declining at all tracks and little is being done by management to draw fans back to the races. Slot machines were supposed to be the cure for the sport. In a narrow sense, they have been for some tracks. But in another sense, there are fewer fans watching the sport make its supposed bring back.

Do a little math here. Say the handle was the average $400,000 last night, probably a high assumption for a Monday. Even if that was all on track, and even if the takeout was 25%, which is a high estimate, that would mean that the track retained $100,000. Now, consider that the vast majority of the handle was off-track, which means that the track got a far lower percentage. And there's the money paid out in taxes to the state. The total purse money last night was an astounding $182,000. It doesn't take a mathematician to realize that the racino/track is getting murdered on the racing part! And I would imagine this is not an atypical situation. How long before these places get tired of subsidizing a money losing situation like this and go crying to their states for help?

And then there are tracks like upstate Vernon and Tioga Downs, where they're competing with an Indian casino that pays no taxes, and where the slots are taking in less than $100 per machine per day. So there, the whole operation is losing money. I imagine that will become less and less atypical as more states get slots, table gaming, Indian casinos, etc., etc.,