Notes - Aug 21

- I'm battling a balky wireless connection here in our otherwise wonderful rental. I may have to resort to.......dial-up!?




Well, while I have a moment sitting on the floor in the one spot I can hook up to the high-speed connection directly, let's catch up on a little news.

Last Friday's vote canvass in West Virginia's Kanawha County resulted in the affirmation of the 'yes' vote which would allow table games at the Tri-State Racetrack; the margin of victory, originally 33, widened to 343. That of course is still a slim margin, less than 1% of the vote. The opponents, led by the West Virginia Family Foundation, want a recount. But who's going to pay the estimated cost of $280,000? The opponents argue that a recount is a part of the election process which the track is obligated to pay for. The track and its allies likely spent at least twice [the $280,000] on the "Vote Yes" advertising and marketing campaign. [Charleston Daily Mail] The track obviously disagrees, and is backed by the County Commission President. Maybe they'll have to have a referendum as to who pays for the recount.

- Thanks to the reader who sent in this link from the Albany Times Union, regarding the suspension of the subpoena issued to the paper's James Odato with respect to the Choppergate, or Troopergate investigation, whichever you prefer. He/she also makes an excellent point, calling to our attention the fact that the Columbia Journalism Review, which supported the T-U in this article I'd linked to, has a "working relationship" with the paper.

- Finally some reaction from NYRA to the flurry of gate incidents at Saratoga, and quite a reaction it was. In a news release, the association announced that starter Richard Brousseau "will begin retirement" after 31 years; but as noted by the Times Union, the timing was unusual with two weeks remaining in the meet. The starter is the guy who just pushes the button to open the gate, whereas a lot of the attention, at least in the feedback I've gotten here, has concerned the assistant starters who are actually handling the horses in the gate. Without knowing all the details of any investigations that may have been conducted into those incidents, I would speculate that Brousseau is being made a scapegoat here. Assistant Roy Williamson will be the new starter.

Front Row

- Many many thanks to reader Late Scratch, who invited the Head Chef and I to spend the day with him in an owner's box on the second floor of the clubhouse. We had a pretty good view of the finish line.



Not bad, eh? And a TV monitor which doubles as an automated betting machine too; so there's hardly any need to ever get up at all. I think it was the least walking mileage I've ever recorded there.

About halfway through the program, in a magnanimous gesture to help make space for an overflow group, we agreed to move to another box.



Must be in the front row! Obviously, the Phipps Stable wasn't running any horses on this day.

So, a cloudy, cool (but dry and perfectly pleasant) day which featured a card that was ordinary at very best turned into a memorable day at the track which included a visit inside the paddock before the 6th race.







That's Johnny V, with the Toddster in the yellow shirt in the background. Three Lions was one of two very well-bet Pletcher runners that failed to finish in the money. This one was the 5-2 favorite, and was never a threat after a stumble at the start. The race was won by Truth Or Dare ($13), shipping in from Delaware for the George Weaver barn, which is suddenly on fire after a slow start to the meeting. After losing with his first 18 starters (albeit with five seconds), Weaver has two winners (Pulla Fast One, at 21-1 on Sunday, was the other) and two seconds in the last two days.

In fact, it was Weaver's first-time starter Hackensack who ran second in the 4th at 8-1, thus splitting me in the exacta. I liked Violette's 5-2 favorite, and first-timer, Stand Pat. He was live on the board in this maiden claimer and I used him on top with the other debut runner who got bet, Ectoplasm, 7-2 for Dutrow, and with Mott's Golden Tablet. But Hackensack just wouldn't quit, I couldn't believe it! He was challenged on the lead every step on the way, and I figured he was done when Stand Pat found room and blew by on the way to his three length win. Ectoplasm got within a half of the place spot, but settled for third. The winner was claimed for $40K by Mitchell Friedman, and Ectoplasm by Dominick Galluscio.

Jimmy Jerkens is another guy who could be ready for a strong close to the meeting. He started out one for his first nine, with the losers including some short-odds losers in Lemon Drop Gal and Memphis Mon. Jerkens, who won with favored Grand Champion on Sunday, took the opener Monday when Montauk prevailed over a stubborn Gowden Mile, a tough beat for struggling jockey Jorge Chavez.

The day featured a disqualification, in the 5th, and one that was an unfortunate development for our gracious host. Late Scratch was alive to what would have been a decent Pick Three payoff with Victory for Sienna. He looked like a winner when that one was first under the wire, but the replay showed runner-up and favored Savasana stumbling near the wire. It was clear from the head-on that Victory for Sienna and jockey Eibar Coa ducked in late, much the way that Lady Joanne did on Saturday. This time, however, there was contact, as Savasana clipped heels and stumbled badly. In fact, on first look at the replay, we thought she had broken down.

However, the problem we all had with the DQ - even the Head Chef - is that the race was clearly over when the incident occurred very late in the game. There was no way that it cost Savasana the win, at least to this observer. Perhaps the severity and potential danger of the foul was what swayed the stewards to take the horse down, especially given the fact that Coa is already appealing a seven-day suspension for a previous incident at this meeting. But that has nothing to do with whether or not his horse should have been disqualified in this particular race, and if I was Late Scratch, I'd be pretty upset. (He was.)

Under other circumstances, I might have just blown off the last two races - the Montauk, scratched down to five NY-breds going seven furlongs, and an uninspiring restricted claimer in the finale. But under the circumstances, I stuck with it, and came up with Karokorum Starlet strictly by determining that none of the other entrants could possibly win. It was a happy and crowded scene in the winner's circle; and while this doesn't constitute an endorsement of Karokorum's business model, I got a kick out of seeing all the smiling faces in the winner's circle. Having a lot of happy people is never a bad thing for the game.



So I was alive in the late double to three horses, including Grosvenor Square, trained by Gary Sciacca, another trainer having trouble getting into the winner's circle; 0 for his first 20. Starting from the rail, Alan Garcia sent Grosvenor Square out for the lead; and though Bruce Tickets edged by him on the backstretch, Garcia never let that one get over to the rail. He came back to pass him turning for home, but Dancing Tin Man, who I hadn't used and then second-guessed myself for not doing so, was coming strongly on the outside. Grosvenor Square took advantage of the inside to skip away by a couple of lengths in upper stretch. But Dancing Tin Man was still coming, as were several others (most of whom I didn't have). It looked like no way this horse was holding on (just as it seemed there was no way that Hackensack would). I still can't believe he did - and he just held on in a really game performance, coming home in 23 1/5. He completed a $52 double that got me out and up for the day, and an already perfect day ended perfectly.

Shortest Drive, Biggest Four

- As I've been suspecting over the years, the distance between New York City and Saratoga continues to shrink, or so it seems. It was not more than a few minutes before 9 AM before we finally pulled out of our little driveway in Queens on Sunday. Sunday mornings is probably the best time to be on the road in the city. The leavers have all left, and the comers are still off in the Hamptons or upstate or whatever, and the traffic is minimal. After one quick local stop, we got on the Grand Central, past Shea Stadium onto the Whitestone Expressway, breezed over the bridge to an empty Cross Bronx Expressway, up the Bronx River to the Sprain Brook to the Taconic, all the way to the end; the Thruway Extension west to route 90 towards Albany, to route 787 towards Troy, a quick dash on Route 7 to the Northway, then up the remaining 17 miles to Saratoga. Off at Exit 13N, a right at the Honda dealer, left on Jefferson, past the harness track entrance that I entered regularly back in my college days in Schenectady, a right on Union Avenue, and into the owners' parking lot. Despite two stops on the way totaling around 15 minutes, we walked into the track with 18 minutes until the first. That means that I could have caught the early daily double at home on TVG, and swung up here in ample time for the late one. I swear, this drive used to take me four hours easily.

As soon as we walked in, the Head Chef breathed a sigh of relief. Looking at the park and all the open space, she felt freed from what she perceived as the confining claustrophobia of Del Mar. She noted that the angular nature of the architecture there boxed her in. But here she felt liberated. The circular Carousel Mini-Theater seemed warm and inviting to her. We found our spot in back of it, too far from the paddock for me, but one has to be willing to compromise. She was relaxed. Me too. I wouldn't have to hear any complaints at all.

Saratoga and Del Mar are different in many ways, but on this day, I found one thing to be quite similar. The weather! It was sunny and warm, but breezy and comfortable, without a trace of humidity whatsoever! I was expecting to look out over the infield and see the Pacific Ocean right there. And we're expecting more of the same today.

No luck for me at the races on a tough day, and I can use my usual excuse of being in a daze for the first day. So I don't have much to report other than a wonderfully pleasant day at the track. But congratulations to Richard Zausner, a former Castle Village partner who went out on his own and claimed Again and Again from the David Jacobson barn for 20K, moved him up with trainer Leah Gyarmati, and scored by the scantest of noses over favored Tactical Gold at 10-1 in the 7th. Richard appeared along with yours truly in the photo that accompanied my article in Barron's last year. I had the horse all over my tickets....except on top. Shame on me, but congrats to him and Leah for a job well done.

Another futile day for Pletcher, whose entry of turf maidens in the third took some significant late money down to 3-1. They both ran out of the money as George Weaver pulled a fast one with Pulla Fast One at 21-1. There was actually a lot of hot money in that race that went down the drain. Lumen, first-time turf for Mott, was bet on the nose to 3-1 from his 6-1 morning line; and Cosmic, a first-timer from Shug, who never wins with first-timers anymore was actually the favorite, also at 3-1. The latter actually bears close watching however after his fast close for third.

I thought I might get out on the day when Bella Attrice made a threatening move and appeared set to pass my underneath horses midstretch in the 8th. But she decided to hang and settled for third. And that was our last race of the day, as we skipped the feature, took our umbrellas and left to find our living quarters for the week and start to settle in. I also thought I'd park myself in front of the TV for the Del Mar races, but the Head Chef was not offering her services on this day. So we dined at the excellent Sushi Thai Garden, and perhaps I'll get her to write a review.

And I saved a lot of money on the Del Mar Classic, to be sure. I was all for going against Lava Man in the race, but I doubt I would have landed on Student Council who, according to Steven Crist in the Form, was purchased by Millennium Farms from Will Farish on the advice of Thoro-Graph's Jerry Brown. Nice bit of advice there.

- It's always a challenge finding a suitable radio station to listen to when one drives up the mountainous route we take up here. But yesterday the scan landed on WPDH, which originates from Poughkeepsie. They had a special weekend going on, devoting their airwaves solely to "the four biggest groups of all time." I'm not sure exactly what they meant by "biggest," but in any event, they were - the Beatles, Rolling Stones, Led Zeppelin and Pink Floyd.

Now, some of you have noticed the frequent indie-rock references I make here, and it's that category that much of what I listen to might fall into these days. However, I also have dated myself many times on this blog, so you may have surmised that I went through my formative years listening to the music that makes up today's "classic rock" genre. And while I don't find myself listening to the classics all that much now, that music obviously was a crucial and treasured element of my youth, and still retains much meaning to me.

Having said that, I can tell you that I have never - EVER - owned a Pink Floyd album....no, not even that one! That's one band that just totally passed me by....or maybe it's the other way around. Many people find that hard to believe, but I was more partial to King Crimson when it came to melotrons. And though I was a Led Zep fan, and remember seeing them play at the Garden so long ago that it was when they still had early and late shows there, I wouldn't rank them amongst my personal "biggest" four bands of that particular era. For me, those would be: the Beatles, Stones, The Who, and Procol Harum. Feel free to chime in on that one. Time for me to chime in on Monday's card.

Reporter Entangled in Own Story

- It's never a good thing for a news reporter to become part of the news. But that is now very much the case for the Albany Times Union's James Odato, whose articles on the franchise situation I've linked to regularly here. In a move that was said to be unprecedented in the two-decade history of the [New York State] Ethics Commission, that panel, as part of its investigation into the scandal regarding Spitzer's office's attempted smear of Joe Bruno (being referred to by some news outlets as the Choppergate Scandal), has issued a subpoena to the reporter and his records on the matter.

Several First Amendment groups said yesterday that a state-level commission issuing a subpoena to a reporter was basically unheard of.

“What? It’s a state ethics commission?” asked Christine Tatum, national president of the Society of Professional Journalists, when told yesterday of the subpoena. “I’m sitting here going, ‘You’ve got to be kidding me.’ ” [NY Times]

The Times-Union immediately shot back that they will not permit Odato to appear.

The interest in Odato pertains to the Freedom of Information Law (FOIL) requests he made regarding the use of state aircraft by seven state officials, including Senator Bruno. He originally asked Spitzer's now-suspended aide Darren Dopp for the information on June 27, and received it quickly enough to write his July 1 article on Bruno's use of state helicopters for trips that included political fund-raisers that started this whole mess. The fact that he was able to get the information, which included the detailed logs prepared by the State Police on Bruno, so quickly is seen as firm evidence that the governor's office was setting the paper and Bruno up.

But it's a second FOIL request that Odato made that has raised suspicions. It came more than a week after the article, on July 9th. Attorney General Cuomo's report noted that it was "odd" that Odato filed a second request, nine days after his story's publication, for information he already had received. [NY Daily News] Some observers, led by the right wing NY Post while it carries out its virulently anti-Spitzer agenda, contend that Odato made the second request in order to provide cover for the governor's office.

Who really initiated the Freedom of Information Law request that prompted the governor's office to release information on Bruno's use of state aircraft? Because it was only after the information on Bruno was reported that the paper filed a second request - this one specifically seeking information on the senator, which Odato had neglected to ask for in the first filing.

Moreover, the State Police had begun collecting information on Bruno even before the initial FOIL request was made.

It's all mighty suspicious. [NY Post]

However, the Columbia Journalism Review seeks to debunk any such suspicions.

Odato...says there’s a far more benign explanation for the second request: he wanted to get updated documents through the end of June, since the first set had only covered flights through May. The second FOIL request backs this up—it clearly identifies itself as “a follow-up” to the June 27 request, clearly asks for the June records, and is clearly dated, both in the text and in the e-mail time stamp as being sent on July 10. [Columbia Journalism Review]

And the article reprints Odato's email request, which specifically contradicts the Post's assertion, showing that it included officials other than Bruno. Still, questions remain, such as why the Times Union didn't sense it was being used when their request was filled so quickly and contained so much extra detailed information on Bruno that was not specifically requested. Even the NY Times noted rather cryptically: Many observers would be eager to hear testimony from Mr. Odato, who could likely shed light on some enduring questions surrounding the case. But if it's up to the Times-Union, that will not be happening.

“The legal arguments are strong on our side,” said Eve Burton, general counsel for the Hearst Corporation, which owns The Times Union. Ms. Burton said that if necessary, the newspaper would fight the subpoena in court.

Referring to Mr. Odato, she said, “We’ve told him that he’s not going to appear.” [NYT]

Panty Raid, Pletcher Come Up Empty

- Well, I gotta pack for our departure for Saratoga early tomorrow morning; the weather is perfect and it should be a glorious trip up the Taconic. Need to do a little more handicapping for tomorrow too. I'm not complaining mind you, but the card for Sunday again leaves something to be desired. Even the early baby races are not as interesting as they often can be. And the featured John's Call, at a mile and five-eighths, is beyond this handicapper's distance capabilities. But again, I'm not whining, and thrilled to finally be headed up. (Though the card could be a bit better!)

So a few notes and then I gotta go. Panty Raid didn't look nearly as good to me as the 2-1 favorite as she did as the 4-1 third choice in the morning line. And, coming after J'Ray completely flopped in the preceding race, the Toddster vibes were not good. I really should have just gone off her, but man, imagine all the explaining I'd have had to do. But nevertheless, I wagered on her less enthusiastically, and used Lear's Princess on top as well. The latter's 10-1 morning line was simply a bad one.

What happened to Moon Catcher, who immediately took back to last, I can't say; but Tough Tiz's Sis played the speed role I expected the former to, and, after she engaged in a backstretch speed duel with Folk, they both faded badly and set the race up for closers the way I expected anyway. But Panty Raid was just empty with no excuse other than his slumping trainer on this day, and Lady Joanne, who inherited the lead from the fading front-runners, showed grim determination to hold off Lear's Princess as they labored home in a final quarter of 26.75 seconds.

The inquiry on the winner was properly dismissed I think, as the replays clearly showed that Johnny V never stopped riding on Octave when Lady Joanne bore in. Borel said Lady Joanne switched leads at the point in question, prompted by a challenge to her outside from Lear's Princess. [Daily Racing Form] And that's probably because she just didn't have enough to drive through that opening on the rail anyway before it disappeared. Lady Joanne is the first Grade 1 winner for the second year sire Orientate, currently 4th on the second crop sire list.

Pletcher had no winners with his five runners at the Spa, and watched as his 6-5 favorite Master Command fizzled in the G3 Iselin at Monmouth. The winner, Gottcha Gold, was 6-1 in the morning line, but was allowed to go off at 15-1 despite his last running line showing him holding off Lawyer Ron in the Salvatore Mile. I'm sure many bettors are aware of the latter's subsequent record-shattering performance. But Gottcha Gold's win was perceived as being merely the result of a horse left loose on the lead. Perhaps we need to take a closer look, though his final 3/8ths in 38.46 won't earn him much more support should he decide to move up to Grade 1 company. (Wasn't the Iselin a Grade 1 not too long ago?)

- I heard Ken Rudolph, on TVG, say that he joked on the air yesterday about the gate crew having a bet on the Pick Six, and he apologized for doing so. He explained that he was just making a joke but, referring obliquely to the Tim Donaghy scandal, asserted that such remarks about integrity of officials in sporting events is inappropriate these days. Rudolph's remarks particularly resonate here in New York, where the gate crew at Saratoga has experienced well-publicized problems over the last two season. Rudolph asserted that the gate crews in California are not allowed to bet on the races, and we can only assume that's the case in New York, though I personally don't know for sure.

Saturday Morning Notes - Aug 18

- A couple of readers have written in about an inside track bias at Saratoga over the last couple of days. The track does certainly to be playing fast for those 5 1/2 furlong races in particular. A day after a two-year old filly set a new track record of 1:03.26, two winners cracked the 1:04 mark - a three-year old NY-bred filly, and Trombetta's first-time baby that hopefully some of you caught at 6-1, as I did not.

As far as the inside bias goes, I will keep that in mind as I check out the early results. But I'm not a big bias guy unless the evidence is overwhelming, and for one thing, with all the grass races the last two days, the statistical sample is not that large - there were only eight dirt races in total. And while the speed did well, I don't think that any of the results were aberrant - though we won't know until later on regarding those two impressive juvenile winners - and the winners were not all on the rail. Besides, even if there is such a bias, it wouldn't dissuade me from Panty Raid at this point; not at a mile and a quarter with the pace scenario that I'm envisioning praying for. I'm more concerned about the Toddster's cold streak.

Other than the Alabama, I don't really have any brilliant ideas about this lackluster Saturday card. The two mile race in the 4th takes away the early pick 4 and all the mid-card multi-races out of the game for this horseplayer.

Nerve looks like a really suspicious dropdown in for 35K in the first, doesn't he? He just won a stakes, albeit a weak one against three rivals, in June, and is coming off a second for 75K. I prefer droppers like Mount Wilton, shipping in from Churchill, where he debuted for a 30K tag before an allowance win, and then an OK third stepping up.

Mott looks like he could have another winner in the 5th in Fancy Fusaichi, cutting back in distance in a dismal field.

I'm giving a look to My Michael, stretching out on the turf for Hushion in the 6th. He's shown a good closing kick in sprints. He's by War Chant, out of a mare by Majesty's Prince, a distance loving favorite of mine from the early 80's who won the Man O'War and the Sword Dancer twice each.

And in the Yaddo Handicap, I'll be keeping an eye on J'Ray. If Pletcher can't win this NY-bred stakes with this filly, Factual Contender notwithstanding, then maybe then I'll have second thoughts about backing him in the Alabama! In any event, best of luck at the races today!

Tote Moves Pay Off

- I was watching the tote at work today. Super Tote on BRIS is my preferred online tote board. This particular client attempts to block gambling sites - of course, it's OK that they develop software that facilitates the kind of program trading that makes the stock market such a crap shoot - so I can't get on to www.bris.com. But I can get www.brisnet.com, which leads to the same place. Ha ha. I know I said that I keep work and pari-mutuels separate, but hey, it was my last workday before finally heading for Saratoga. And besides, when I do picks for the Special, it's like I have action every single race of the day, which is pretty cool.

I like to set the tote board on 'Percentages,' which displays the betting in the win/place/show pools that way instead of by total dollars. That way, it's easy for me to see horses that are getting bet disproportionately in the win pool, and thereby detect horses that are getting the hot money; or at least in theory. To be honest, this hasn't worked for me at this meeting. The smart money hasn't always been that smart. However, I've identified a lot of live horses in this manner over the years, and besides, it's fun. It makes me feel like one of the wise-guys themselves when I get on board one that proves to be live on the track as well.

So on Friday, there were two horses I noticed that got pounded on the board. One was Prussian, Mott's first-timer who romped on the turf in the 4th - a couple of people already mentioned it in the comments. Prussian is from the final crop of Danzig, who, according to BRIS, hits at an amazing 22% with first-time starters; and 26% first-time turf. He's out of a European stakes-placed mare by Alleged who is a half-sister to the multiple group stakes winner Mubtaker. Prussian was 7-2 morning line, second choice to Nor'easterner, second in his grass debut. But Mott's colt was the favorite from the start, hanging around 5-2, before getting pounded on the nose to 9-5 at the end. He had 28% of the win pool, but only 18% of the show pool.

His backers had to feel good when he was in hand with the lead turning for home, with the closest pursuer a 33-1 shot under a drive. Desormeaux asked him for run and he promptly drew away before going back to a handride late, getting the last sixteenth in 5.95 seconds. The payoffs of $5.90 $3.60 $3.20, with the favorite finishing second, show how light the show wagering was. I was going to mention that Prussian will probably turn up in the Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont, and noticed that the race is only a week before that new Breeders Cup juvenile turf race. I'd think that NYRA will adjust that next year, if they're still doing the adjusting for the 2008 schedule.

An even more dramatic tote move took place in the 5th, a three-year old state-bred maiden race. Light Tactic, a first-timer for the hot Richard Schosberg barn, was 5-1 in the morning line. Stanley Hough had Sashay Renee, an extremely well-bred debut runner by Unbridled's Song, out of the graded sprint stakes winner Dancin Renee. He was 3-1 morning line, and I wasn't surprised at all to see him open at around 8-5, with Light Tactic 6-1. But the latter drifted down slowly but steadily as the minutes went by, and then got tapped late, from 4-1 to 3-1, and again, on the nose in the win pool. Sashay Renee, the 2-1 favorite, was a good thing too, and sped out to the lead in 21.78. But Light Tactic was a better thing, tracking the leader down, and drawing off by three despite drifting out, in a good time of 1:03.92.

Cave's Valley, a Michael Trombetta two-year old first-timer who won by seven in the second, covered the distance in 1:03.79. This trainer wins with nearly a third of his first-timers - he's 20 for 61 over the last two years. The stat in the Form, which I believe covers 18 months, was even better at 35%. It was staring us all right in the face right there in the Racing Bible, yet this 4-1 morning line was allowed to go off at 6-1, as the bettors turned to debut runners by Zito and McLaughlin instead.

Mott had two more winners after Prussian, including Sharp Susan in the Lake Placid, to give him the hat trick, and a meet-leading total of 16 as he draws away from the stone cold Toddster. Pletcher had three more losers today, leaving him with just nine winners from 67 starters, or 13.4%, pretty close to anemic by this barn's standards. But I'm going to be hoping that he breaks out with Panty Raid in Saturday's most excellently competitive edition of the Alabama.

Alabama Picks, News, Notes, and Lies

- The UK's Guardian reports that Saeed bin Suroor will actually be at Saratoga on Saturday to saddle Folk in the Alabama. I handicapped the race last night for my horse-by-horse thing for the Special, and I have to say that I just love Panty Raid. I watched her win in the American Oaks; Prado gave her a supremely confident ride, keeping her on the outside all the way, and peeking back twice while moving towards the lead three wide on the final turn. What I liked the most was this: when the tough Valbenny engaged her inside the 8th pole, getting to within maybe a 1/4 length or so, Panty Raid would just have none of it, dug in, and was drawing back away at the end, with a certain flair and even arrogance, at least as it seemed to me. "Get that weak stuff outta my face," she seemed to be saying. I'm not concerned about the surface switch back to dirt, and neither is Pletcher.

"I think she’s better on the dirt; Edgar thinks she’s better on the turf. If you had seen her work, you would likely agree with me.” [NYRA]

Panty Raid worked five furlongs in 59.3 (2/46) on the main track last week. She's won on grass, dirt, and Poly surfaces at Turfway and Keeneland, so I don't really think it matters what she's running on. And she easily won her career debut over this track last August. So she's my pick. I think Lear's Princess is overstated at 10-1 in the morning line, and I see money prospects for her. With Moon Catcher and Folk (hopefully) setting the pace, and three stalkers (Tough Tiz's Sis, Octave [at least based on her last two races], Lady Joanne) in close pursuit, I'm looking for the race to set up for the two with the best closing kicks; and in my opinion, those will be Panty Raid and Lear's Princess, in that order. There's your cold exacta! (If only it were so easy...)

Back to Saeed bin Suroor and the Guardian article, which discusses how well Authorized, another of the top three-year olds snared in Darley's latest spending spree, is doing in preparation for the Juddmonte International Stakes, his first race since his bizarre loss to Notnowcato in the Coral-Eclipse, when the latter glided out to the firmer outside rail for the stretch drive. Those two will be joined by Dylan Thomas in what should be an outstanding race, which will take place on Tuesday. Hmmm, I guess NYRA doesn't host its British racing thing on dark days, does it?

- Still no fatalities on the Del Mar Polytrack, though we wouldn't know about more subtle injuries that may (or may not) be occurring there. However, there have been five deaths on the turf course, four of them in the afternoon, and the latest on Thursday. And apparently, the on-track euthanization of Holly Torque Tango did not go smoothly.

Even though a screen was up, many saw the 3-year-old filly rear up on her hind legs and fall to the ground after she was euthanzied. The crowd let out a collective gasp after she hit ground.

"They might have botched it, but they had no choice," said Dan Smith, Del Mar's senior media coordinator. "It was the humane thing to do. She couldn't walk to the van. They had to put her out of her misery." [North County Times]

Here's a collective 'ugh' to that nasty bit of news.

- And speaking of 'ugh,' the Albany Times Union's Saratoga blog reports that Rudy Giuliani was at the track yesterday. And boy, am I'm glad, first of all because it means that I missed him. But mostly because this allows me to seamlessly stray off topic. As you may know, Giuliani told reporters last week: “I was at ground zero as often, if not more, than most of the workers.” Referring to the workers at ground zero, he's been quoted as saying that he was “one of them.” But the NY Times, in an inspired piece of reporting, consulted the logs of his mayoral archive, and came up with this:

A complete record of Mr. Giuliani’s exposure to the site is not available for the chaotic six days after the attack, when he was a frequent visitor. But an exhaustively detailed account from his mayoral archive, revised after the events to account for last-minute changes on scheduled stops, does exist for the period of Sept. 17 to Dec. 16, 2001. It shows he was there for a total of 29 hours in those three months, often for short periods or to visit locations adjacent to the rubble.
....
A sample by Mount Sinai Medical Center of 1,138 participants in its study of health problems among rescue, recovery and debris removal workers found that they had spent a median of 962 hours at the World Trade Center site, or the equivalent of about 120 eight-hour days. [NY Times, via MSNBC.com, no registration required]

The emphasis above was mine; the hypocrisy strictly the former mayor's. Who knows, in a couple of years, hopefully as a private citizen, perhaps we'll hear him say that he was at Saratoga as often, if not more, than most of the horseplayers. Somebody send this guy to the detention barn, please.

Kodiak Moment

- I had a good day in the Special, picking four winners on top, and I had the late Pick Three (for real) for $111. That was the lowest will pay of the six I was alive with, after singling the first two legs; but certainly a better result than the second place finisher, who I didn't have. Friday's picks should be up here shortly now.

Kodiak Kowboy was one horse I had because I did do the extra work. I was intrigued by The Roundhouse, but watching the replay of Kodiak Kowboy winning the Bashford Manor won me over; he was ridden confidently and ran as professionally as could be for a young colt. With Shaun Bridgmohan replacing Corey Lanerie, this son of leading first crop sire Posse sat a perfect trip in the G2 Special behind the two speeds, waited patiently for room at the top of the stretch, and burst through horses to open up a big lead. The Roundhouse put in a nice rally for second, but wasn't making up any appreciable ground at the end. The last 2 1/2 furlongs were run in 30.98, which is a rate of about 24.75 for a quarter.

So here's a pretty solid juvenile, a winner of two graded stakes in a row, and four out of five overall. "We’re hoping to run him in the Belmont Futurity (Grade II, Sept. 15)," Steve Asmussen told Bloodhorse. While Posse made his living as a sprinter, there seems to be plenty of stamina in his pedigree, and I imagine that his progeny will go on with the right matings. Kodiak Kowboy is out of a mare by the late Travers winner Coronado's Quest who is a half-sister to West By West, a graded winner around two turns; and his second dam is a half to the Brooklyn Handicap winner Little Missouri...and that when it was run at a mile and a half. He's inbred 4x4 to Mr. Prospector, and has horses like Glorious Song, Blushing Groom, Cox's Ridge, and Roberto close up in his pedigree, so...I'm not talking about, y'know, that, just saying that he should be able to go two turns at Monmouth this fall if, that is, he's still sharp six months after his first race.

The best two-year old performance of the day however may have come in the maiden race. Secret Gypsy (Sea of Secrets) broke the track record for 5 1/2 furlongs, getting the distance in 1:03.26 in her career debut, cruising on top to the stretch, and then drawing away when asked under a hand ride by Desormeaux. Tom Durkin noted after the finish that she didn't want to go into the gate. She was a secret at the windows, going off at 13-1 for Ronny Werner, who does OK with these, at 17% over the last two years. Zito's first-timer Overandabeauty got bet on the nose at 3-1 and held second after chasing the winner.

We're leaving for Saratoga on Sunday morning; our rental starts that day. If Rags to Riches was running in the Alabama, we'd probably have gone up a day early, and used my Holiday Inn points for a free night. In Albany. I don't like the one in Saratoga. Even without Rags to Riches, if it was a great card, I might have persuaded the Head Chef, who despises the Holiday Inn, to leave a day early. But after having seen the entries, we'll stick to our plans. There's a two mile dirt race on the card, and while there's nothing wrong with an oddball race every once in a while to keep things fun, you might as well just stick your money in a slot machine.

The Head Chef, who has graciously donated her services in the form of a home-cooked dinner to be auctioned off at the Belmont Child Care Association's fundraising dinner event at the Gideon Putnam hotel next Wednesday, is bringing her friend Eileen along. Eileen has broken up with her boyfriend, and is looking for some men, to put it frankly. The Head Chef somehow has convinced her that the track at Saratoga would be a good place to meet guys. Personally, I think she might be disappointed, though you never know. I mean, what serious horseplayer guy is thinking about women when he's at Saratoga, right? This is like the opposite of the Capital Play theory that women attract men to the track. Maybe it's the other way around, and then those women who were attracted by the men will then attract other men who will attract other women, and all of a sudden it will be like Australia, Saratoga will become a big pick-up joint and put Siro's out of business. But anyway, if you see a woman who's obviously on the prowl on Sunday, please stop and say hello.

Odds and Ends - Aug 16

- An anonymous commenter, in a long, impassioned rant on the latest trouble at the Spa starting gate, which resulted in a costly refund of over $500,000 to bettors of Phantom Income, has a list of questions regarding the starting gate crew that he wants answered:

Are they bonded? Do they undergo background checks? Are they prohibited from wagering? Do they carry cell phones when on the job? Are they drug and alcohol tested? Are records kept of which starter is in the gate with which horse? Are they disciplined when they screw up?

These all seem like valid questions, as the commenter rightfully points out, in light of this. The Tim Donaghy scandal is going to have implications far beyond the NBA, raising doubts in the mind of fans of any sport regarding the impartiality of officials of all kinds. The reader is particularly piqued at the effect these incidents have on those who wager on the heavily marketed multi-race wagers, who are then left at the mercy of the post-time favorite; as well as by the seeming "nonchalance" of NYRA. Perhaps I should contact Gelnick and Gelnick and let them earn their $125,000 per month, he writes.

John Pricci, on his Horserace Insider site, feels that Fleet Valid may have cost Will He Shine second place in yesterday's third (and he makes a good case based on watching the head-on at Cal Racing), and asks: Where is Getnick and Getnick when you need them. Or are they not overly paid to help adjudicate fouls? NYRA's proposed deal with its former federal monitor is certainly attracting the derision it deserves.

- A federal judge in California has dismissed a lawsuit filed by the Jockeys Guild against Dr. Wayne Gertmenian. U.S. District Court Judge Otis Wright ruled Aug. 13 that the Guild could not sue Gertmenian under the Labor Management Reporting & Disclosure Act because they are independent contractors and not members of a labor union. [Bloodhorse] Dr. G, of course, argued that the jockeys should be treated as a labor union rather than independent contractors when he headed the Guild, so this ruling, termed as "bizarre" by a Guild attorney, is the ultimate in bitter irony for the jockeys. Fortunately, the claims of Gertmenian's financial fleecing of the Guild for personal purposes are also pending in a California state court (where he had the nerve to countersue for defamation of character!). Hopefully, this sleazebag will someday get what he deserves.

- I was surprised to read of the sale of Any Given Saturday to Darley which will take effect after the Breeders Cup Classic. Winstar stands his stallion Distorted Humor, and one would think they'd love to have them side by side. But Winstar is only a co-owner of the colt, along with Padua Stables. A Darley spokesperson said, of the chances of him racing at four: "That's a possibility, but nothing's been decided yet. It depends on how he's doing." [DRF] Oddly, I get the feeling that there's a better chance of that happening with Darley than with Winstar.

- Friday is the day on which election officials in West Virginia's Kanawha County will gather at 7 AM to consider the hundreds of uncounted early ballots, 67 early ballots from a St. Albans precinct that were apparently counted twice, and more than 500 provisional or challenged ballots; this regarding the table games vote won by the 'yes' side by a mere 33 votes. The public is invited to watch. One official said: "It will look a little like, and I hate to use the term, Florida, except you won’t have the hanging chads.” [Charleston Gazette] I also hate to read that reference to the fiasco that resulted in the current disasterous administration. And it produces a picture in my mind of John Bolton bursting in and yelling: "I'm with God, and I'm here to help the recount!"

- There's some headlines today about a GOP plan to bring slots to Maryland, but I wouldn't get my hopes up. The plan is being presented as an alternative to the Democrats' proposal to address a $1.5 billion budget shortfall with tax increases. The Republican plan proposes to limit growth in spending, and would allow 15,000 slot machines around the state. [Baltimore Sun] However, the Washington Post notes that Republicans hold 37 of 141 seats in Maryland's House of Delegates, so their plan is unlikely to greatly influence debate.

- And finally, back to the NBA scandal for a moment. I read this note in the NY Post: The NBA forbids gambling by its refs in any form, except playing the ponies during the off season. So nice that we get these little exemptions, isn't it? But perhaps we should check to see if the NBA forbids any of its officials to work on the starting gate crew at Saratoga...

Godolphin Triple

- Godolphin had three winners at Saratoga today; two of them returned nice prices. Astronomia, making her first U.S. start, was 7-1 with Johnny V in the first. Palace Episode was 6.60-1 with Jean-Luc Samyn. And Council Member, though the co-favorite on the tote board at 8-5, was in fact the second choice, with Ramon Dominguez. Who sez that the Sheikh doesn't spread the wealth? The trainer for all three was Saeed bin Suroor, who I imagine was nowhere to be seen for his great moment.

Paint ($8.70) was the second baby debut winner of the meeting for Zito. He moved into midpack after a slow start, and if I'd bet him (I did pick him in the Special selection box at least), I wouldn't have thought much of my chances as they were going around the turn, as wide as he was and as hard as Cornelio Velasquez was working. Then, once in the stretch, he raced greenly, zig-zagging in and out, and I think his victory, in 1:05.04, could be attributed more to the others tiring than some great late burst of speed. Still, he did win, and he's a $400,000 son of Include, a sire who, while successful, is only 9% with first timers. And he obviously needed the race in terms of experience. Paint's dam, Pat Copelan, won the Adirondack over this track, so I'd say to watch him for next time. But these days, we're already at the point of this meeting at which next time probably means Belmont.

One more thing, and then I gotta write the Friday handicapping column for the Special, sitting in for Pete. I did Thursday's too, and those picks should be up right here for Thursday, or Friday (or not at all) depending on when you're reading this. Now, I would understand if you were wondering why you would bother given the crummy horses I've been giving out on this site lately. But I've actually done pretty well in the selection box, which is pretty much my first impression picks after studying the Form. So, for example, I looked at the Adirondack, and picked More Happy for the paper.

Then, on Tuesday night (I did those picks on Monday), I was looking at the race closer, and I read this guy Track Bandit on BRIS. He (maybe a she, but then I supposed she'd be Track Bandita), does a really fine job doing horse-by-horse analysis for stakes races. In his preview of the Adirondack, he raved about the debut win by Passion, saying that she easily drew off through the stretch under nothing more than a mild hand ride. So I then went to watch the race, and, in fact, she was pretty much eased up inside the sixteenth pole. Then, I used Formulator to see that the race had been productive thus far, producing a 2nd and a win.

So, I picked Passion here. I didn't even include her in my top three in the Special. It wasn't at all a bad selection. She was 6-1, and it looked to me as if she had traffic problems for quite some time in the stretch before she finished very well for third, just a length and a half behind the tired winner. Perhaps she could have been closer with a clean trip, especially if Phantom Income wasn't the latest starting gate casualty and had challenged the winner up front. But, in this case, my first impression was the right one, and the extra information turned out to be too much, though producing good value and without terrible consequences.

For Baffert, it was another front-running winner from the Del Mar contingent. More Happy went 21.88 to the quarter, another 23.05 to the half, the next quarter in 25.19, and staggered home a sixteenth in 7.39. If that's what Baffert was referring to when he talked about showcasing "the brilliance of a good horse," I'll maintain my open mind to the synthetics.

Passion in the Adirondack(s)

- I saw that El Angelo posted a comment on Cristblog complaining about the quality of the races last week. Well, wait until he sees Thursday's card! I recalled from last year that the middle of the meeting featured a big diet of state-bred races, even maiden claimers, and restricted claiming races; and we'll certainly get to see some of those on Thursday. There is at least the Special for two-year olds that day, and, as noted by reader jeff, The Roundhouse is amongst the entries. Circular Quay's baby brother, by Fusaichi Pegasus, rallied well for third in the Sanford after drifting out into the middle of the track turning for home. It says in the comment line that he was carried wide, which I don't really see....but he was really wide, let's leave it at that. I do like him, but morning line favorite Kodiak Kowboy was very impressive visually winning the Bashford Manor under a highly confident ride by Corey Lanerie.

Working backwards, Wednesday's feature is the Adirondack, for the baby fillies. And we'll see the second of Baffert's horses shipped from Del Mar (this one is not owned by Zayat Stables). More Happy (Vindication) seemed to like the Poly just fine, with a debut victory, defeating Foxy Danseur, who ran third to Tasha's Miracle in the Sorrento. She worked a bullet 59 seconds (of 48) over this track, but she looks like a play-against to me if she's at or below her 2-1 morning line odds.

Passion won very easily for Pletcher at Arlington (where the trainer is winning at a 29% rate), and forget about that 78 Beyer in her debut. Renee Douglas sat chilly on this daughter of Came Home, shook her up midstretch for a little exercise, and then, after peeking back at the competition left far behind, eased her up well before the wire. The second and 4th horses next finished 2nd and first in maiden specials respectively. Passion is a half-sister to the graded winner Kumari Continent. Phantom Income (Montbrook) was also a visually impressive debut winner, at Belmont, but in a field of just four others that we know little about - the only one to run back ran a distant 9th. So I'm going to rate Passion over Phantom Income, (who is out of a half to Ghostzapper and City Zip) despite the Polytrack thing.

jeff also mentioned that I Promise held on well on an opening day track that seemed tough on front runners. I looked back at the charts from that day, and the results were most definitely skewed towards deepish closers, so thanks for pointing that out. (Maybe.) This daughter of Hook and Ladder's Moss Pace figs indicate that she'll be right up on the lead once again. And Sky Mom is interesting in that her best race by far Beyer-wise was her only one of four not on Polytrack; in fact, it's the highest number in the race, eight better than More Happy's 86.

So I'll go with Passion; she's 6-1 morning line, and at the risk of repeating myself, we saw Pletcher win some stakes at decent prices here last year (including the now-retired Cotton Blossom's win in the Schuylerville last year at 8-1. And I prefer I Promise and Sky Mom over Phantom Income and More Happy for second, though I'll probably wuss out and use the latter defensively instead of being a man and taking a stand.

Governor Start Your Engine

- Who said that Governor Spitzer doesn't like racing?



Well, that's not quite what we have in mind. Of course, it's the 'in thing' these days for politicians to be seen at NASCAR events, though generally they're Republicans. Almost 90 percent of the checks written by those affiliated with NASCAR flow to Republican candidates, according to a CNNSI.com computer analysis of federal campaign contributions. [Sports Illustrated] Indeed, the Times quoted one woman as asking “What’s Nascar doing putting a Democrat on TV?” And Spitzer is apparently a genuine auto racing guy; he has a favorite driver (Jeff Gordon), seems to be familiar with the nuances of various tracks, and has a favorite race.

His favorite event is at Bristol Motor Speedway in Tennessee, known for its spectacular bang-ups.

“Bristol is arguably the best race to watch,” the governor said to a reporter. “This is a short circuit, Saturday night, more crashes, more spins, slower speeds because it’s a shorter track, but it’s just complete mayhem.” [NY Times]

So, I know nothing about auto racing, and I wasn't aware that is actually OK to say that you like to see crashes? I mean, that's cool? Like saying you like hockey fights except that people get killed and maimed? Perhaps Spitzer has actually been enjoying himself over the last few weeks as his administration has crashed and burned.

- Michael and Jessica picked up on this quote from Steve Asmussen regarding Curlin's non-appearance in the Travers: "I think Graveyard of Champions and the best horse I've ever had shouldn't go in the same sentence." Between that and his comment to the Form that the track at Saratoga "isn't kind to most racehorses," he seems to be really stretching to provide a legitimate reason for not running the colt. And unless he was thinking of running Curlin in a high class allowance race, it seems a bit presumptuous for him to imply that a loss to Street Sense in the Travers would put Curlin in the Graveyard of Champions annals of Saratoga.

- The referendum in West Virginia's Kanawha County was a bit like Irridescence and Royal Highness battling down the stretch on Saturday. The 'yes' vote carried the day - thus far - by a mere 33 votes out of 45,000 cast...amazing! We certainly haven't heard the last of this vote. 64 uncounted early votes were found on Monday, and they came from a county which voted 173 to 96 against the games. Whatsmore, according to the Charleston Gazette, there are 513 ballots that are being challenged. A countywide canvass is scheduled for 7 a.m. Friday, when any questions about the legality of votes will be decided..

- Bob Baffert was bitching about the Polytrack at Del Mar after Maimonides' win on Wednesday.

"This is real racing, racing on dirt....You get to showcase the brilliance of a good horse. That's what the whole argument was about at Del Mar. We breed these horses, we spend all this money ... why do we want to take their speed away? Horses are always going to get hurt. I've had horses get hurt on Polytrack. We're all for safety, but we need to somehow blend the two together." [Saratogian]

If some consider that to be sour grapes, Brad Free, lamenting one of the most profound bet-against angles of the synthetic era, supplies a good reason why: Since last fall, Baffert has won with less than 9 percent of his synthetic starters (10 for 112). His overbet runners produced a return on investment of 70 cents for each $2 win. [DRF] And I still haven't heard a good reason why a shift in the breeding industry from speed to stamina would be a bad thing.

- And a dog track in Florida has folded its hand.....on the dog racing anyway. Tampa Greyhound abruptly halted its live racing meeting, and will proceed with simulcasting and poker only.

"Since opening our card room on July 1, it has become clear that poker is where we need to focus our efforts. Low attendance for greyhound racing and the popularity and growth of poker made this an obvious business decision due to recent legislative changes." [St Petersburg Times (hat tip to Albany Law School Racing and Gaming Today]

I hope Magna isn't paying attention to that; otherwise, it's possible that Gulfstream could become the largest poker hall in the country.

Notes - Aug 14

- According to the Form's Brad Free, Yearly Attitude was the first horse to win wire-to-wire in a two turn race on the Del Mar Polytrack when she did so on July 26. She did it again in the first on Monday. But the effort, in which she opened a big lead and then just hung on under desperate urging by Richard Migliore on board, was apparently too much. The race chart notes that she then did not return to be unsaddled and was vanned off. Hopefully, she was just exhausted from the effort and is OK.

Check out the results chart for the third there; an entry that went off at 24-1 ran 1-2, returning $51.00 $50.60 $16.80.

John Sadler and Doug O'Neill took the late double, and they're two trainers who I've noted have really picked things up lately after a slow start at the meet. And here, I refer to the discussion on trainer hot/cold streaks going on over at the Form's Cristblog.

The proprietor writes that he will dogmatically continue to insist that a "Who's Hot/Who's Not" approach to handicapping can be a dangerous path if followed blindly. I have to admit that if it were up to me (and perhaps it's possible and I just haven't figured it out yet), the trainer records in Formulator would default to This Track / Past 60 Days, with the races sorted by date order with the most recent races on top. This is especially true when I'm betting out-of-town tracks that I don't follow every day. To me, recent trainer form puts the more detailed and esoteric stats in proper context. I'm not in disagreement with Crist's comment due to the qualifier if followed blindly. Sure, it's absurd to say that Pletcher is an automatic bet-against at Saratoga; but not so in my opinion at this particular meeting if the Pletcher is under 5-2, and a two-year old making its first start, on the dirt. For whatever reason, the barn is lagging in that area, and I see those times as an opportunity to take a firm stand against until the situation changes. And if I happen to choose to oppose the 3-2 shot that he finally wins with, it's certainly not going to break my bankroll or spirit.

The notion of trainers going hot and colt is a peculiar one I think. It's not like a quarterback who gets into a groove, a hitter to whom the ball looks as big as Karl Rove's head (exiting stage left right, several years too late); or even a jockey in a streak of making all the right moves at the right time. But sometimes, I believe there are reasons. Take Sadler and O'Neill; it's perfectly logical to deduce that some trainers have made adjustments in their training methods to adapt to the Polytrack. I've sometimes wondered if a trainer can indeed hit his own kind of groove; finding a workout regimen that clicks on a particular track or in a certain climate, a new exercise rider, a new source for hay.

But probably, it's mostly, as Crist writes, a matter of random distribution. Whatever the reason is, it's really almost irrelevant to me. The fact is that trainers do have hot streaks and cold streaks, and even if it's just mathematics, they're real. So I look at those most recent trainer lines in date order in Formulator simply to see who's going well or not, and, better yet, to attempt to anticipate a streak in the making. I'll try to catch a trainer who seems on the verge, with a lot of 2nds and 3rds, or one who seems to be faltering, perhaps having sent out some losing favorites. I'll also look for the trainer who's on a ridiculous streak like six out of eight, perhaps to look for a spot in which the horse is overbet and the law of averages seems poised to catch up.

And I want to know if something about a particular trainer has changed in the recent past. I'm looking at Wednesday's Saratoga pp's, and John Kimmel has Winning Punch, a first-timer in the second. The trainer stat in the Form for 1st start reads (42 .05 $0.54). The BRIS Ultimate PP's points out that the trainer has a low percentage with first-timers. But Kimmel has won with two debut runners in the last two days. It might just be a coincidence, or maybe not. Remember that Zito explained last year that he had changed his approach with two-year olds, with which he rarely used to win first time out. Maybe if someone asked Pletcher about his juveniles this meeting, he'd respond that he's seen the light, and no longer believes in pushing young horses so early in their career because he's totally obsessed with finally winning the Derby (you think that question is going to go away just because he won the Belmont?).

In many cases though, a trainer streak, hot or cold, is simply a short-term statistical aberration. At the end of the year, it's a pretty solid bet that Pletcher is going to have his 25% winners. But looking at recent trainer form and trying to hop on the bandwagon at the right time either way is an aspect of handicapping that I really enjoy. And since I haven't exactly been making a living playing the ponies of late, at least I should try to have some fun.

- A Travers which at one time was shaping up as a climactic showdown of the top three-year old players before they go on to face older competition seems to be fizzling into a showcase for Street Sense. Steve Asmussen announced that Curlin will skip the race and point to the Jockey Club Gold Cup instead. David Grening writes in the Form that the trainer was never planning to run Curlin in the Travers. Well, excuse us for the misunderstanding! He said that it was Curlin's losing performance in the Belmont that prompted the decision:

"Even without having success, the fact that he ran well over it, he came out of it good and he hasn't run at Saratoga, which isn't exactly kind to most racehorses. [DRF]

And there's an interesting comment about the main track at Saratoga that I don't recall hearing before, do you? Sounds like he's campaigning for Polytrack at Saratoga!! (Are you out there Green Mtn Punter?)

Magna Mess

- I wanted to backtrack a couple of days to Magna Entertainment's earnings announcement and investors' conference call from Friday, which is chock full of irony and i-told-you-so's in addition to its immediate and potential dire consequences. As you may have read, the company announced an additional $23 million in losses for the second quarter, bringing the total for the last 3+ years to over $300 million. The news was so bad that Frank Stronach, despite being the interim CEO of the company, couldn't even bring himself to host the conference call. Instead, those honors fell to Tom Hodgson, a former CEO of the company who is now serving as an outside consultant.

"I was quite surprised that you're hosting the conference call," BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. analyst Peter Sklar told Mr. Hodgson. "Quite irregular that a consultant rather than the management host the call."

Mr. Hodgson told another analyst that Mr. Stronach is away.[Toronto Globe and Mail]

The immediate fallout was the announcement that Magna will give up its Michigan license and not proceed with building a new racetrack near Detroit; and that it will sell the land on which it hoped to build one in Dixon, CA (a plan which was rejected by voters earlier in the year). Of course, that's little surprise. Magna is in no better position to be building racetracks at this point than Countrywide Financial is to provide mortgages to subprime borrowers.

Magna lobbied heavily for the Michigan license, promising to build a $100 million racetrack complex. It was awarded the license in May, 2005.



"In this case we can say this is a trifecta....What we have done today will be a great win for the city of Romulus, for Michigan and I think for Magna, of course." So said Stronach at the time. Others were skeptical, especially considering that not only are slots not approved for tracks there, but full-fledged casinos are prevalent throughout the state. The Detroit News reported at the time:

But many racing industry experts say the Romulus racetrack may end up being another case of Stronach's vision failing to match up with reality.

Specifically, they question why a company would invest $100 million in a horse track that cannot offer gamblers lucrative slot machines.
.....
"He has a history of making promises he doesn't keep," said Jacob L. Miklojcik, president of Michigan Consultants in Lansing and a gaming adviser. "I can't see spending $100 million on just horse racing. It doesn't make financial sense."

"They are saying the same things in Detroit that they said three years ago in Maryland," said Alan Foreman, general counsel for the Maryland Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association. "You have a company that has very questionable finances and seems to be in trouble. The cash flow from racing operations doesn't seem to be sufficient to justify the expenditures they've made in these projects." [Detroit News]

Now, while residents in Dixon are more than glad to see Stronach go, horsemen in Michigan, where Magna has already announced the closing of Great Lakes Downs, are faced with the prospect of nowhere to race.

Ironically, Maryland, the state which has become the reluctant poster boy of what happens to racing in a slots-less state surrounded by those more fortunate, is actually faring pretty well (albeit no doubt in part due to cutbacks made over the past year).

"When you look at the results in Maryland," [CFO Blake] Tohana said, "that operation has done quite well. Year after year they've had positive results, and the Preakness this year was great."
.....
Doug Illig, Maryland Jockey Club's chief financial officer, said the MJC's bottom line was a net profit of $4.6 million in the second quarter, up from last year's $4.4 million.

"We've actually been doing pretty well," Illig said. "We're about $1 million ahead of budget this year. And that's really what corporate looks for. They're happy as long as you meet your numbers."

MEC officials also said they believe slots will be coming to Maryland "within a reasonable time frame," and Tohana added: "There's a lot of positive momentum in those jurisdictions [around Laurel Park and Pimlico]. A lot more positive momentum than previously in the state." [Baltimore Sun]

However, Hodgson warned that none of Magna's tracks are immune to review. "There will be no half-measures, and no stone will be left unturned." [Toronto Star] And it's little surprise that Hodgson singled out Gulfstream Park. Some would consider it the ultimate irony if it was Stronach's most notorious lapse in judgment that ultimately brought the company down....while others might call it poetic justice.

What should be a showcase property for Magna Entertainment Corp. is dragging down the company's results and hurting parent [real estate company] MI Developments Inc...

"The cash flows from Gulfstream are currently not sufficient to service principal and interest payments on its loans," said John Simonetti, president of MI, which holds about 60 per cent of MEC.
.......
"MEC has made substantial capital investments in these facilities and has no realistic prospect of generating an acceptable return on investment in the current operating environment," Mr. Hodgson said. [Globe and Mail]

Gulfstream's slots are averaging a pitiful $79 in daily take, and Hodgson indicated that a cut in the share alloted to horsemen is being considered.

Sam Gordon, president of the Florida Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association, said Friday that Magna officials had not yet approached the horsemen's group about renegotiating the deal. Asked whether horsemen would be willing to renegotiate, Gordon said, "I doubt it. Even at those numbers it's not our fault they're not making money." [Daily Racing Form]

Hodgson repeated past assertions that the company's ability to continue as an ongoing concern is in doubt. And Simonetti, whose company holds $160 million of Magna Entertainment debt, again made it clear that their commitment is not open-ended.

"We have to seriously decide to what extent, if any, we will assist MEC going forward, both financially and also, in my mind, assisting with the implementation of the plan that MEC ultimately develops at the conclusion of its strategic review." [Globe and Mail]

Should MI pull the plug, forcing Magna to sell off its tracks, there are naturally no guarantees as to who will buy them, and what they will do with the land. And I wouldn't really expect that MI would care much about their ultimate disposition. I'd be especially concerned about Gulfstream, smack in the middle of an area experiencing rapid residential and commercial development. Could be that Frank's Folly could turn out to be Fatal.

Final Jeopardy

- I fell for what I perceived as being a big betting move in the final race at Saratoga on Sunday. First-time starter Bardot was getting bet on the nose in the win pool; an angle I adopted long, long ago from Tom Ainslie, as my more entrenched readers know. Briefly, the theory goes that the public bets horses win/place/show in roughly the same percentages; so when I see a horse like this getting pounded to win, but lagging badly in the show pool, I figure that it's the so-called "smart" money. Especially when the horse is from a trainer like Tom Bush, who, I've noted in the past, does not necessarily keep his good things a big secret.

Anyway, Bardot was just 4-1 in the morning line, so it wasn't as much the fact that she was 3-1 as the way she was 3-1; around 20% of the win pool money, but only 12% in the show pool. Often, the disparity will narrow as post time approaches as the more mathematically inclined amongst us take notice. But in this case, the money kept pouring in on top, including a late flash re-betdown to 3-1 after drifting up to 7-2, my favorite tote board move, and one that has sent me scurrying to the windows many times over the decades. This time it just sent me to the NYRA internet site, which has happily accommodated my last second betting in spots in which I'd have had no chance to make it with my old OTB phone account. I wonder how that will turn out in the long run.

Bardot showed absolutely nothing; I have no excuse to offer whatsoever. But I'll stick her on my watch list anyway just to make sure she doesn't slip by me at 10-1 next time.

But it was a good day for the trainer anyway, who conditions the tremendously talented Posted, whose dominating win I wrote about in the prior post. I also mentioned the gelding's unusual pedigree which features 2x2 inbreeding to half-siblings. That reminded me of Stevie Wonderboy, the retired juvenile champ who sports a similar pattern in his pedigree; he's inbred 2x2 to the half-brothers AP Indy and Summer Squall.

And that of course brings us to Stevie's owner Merv Griffin, who passed away over the weekend from prostate cancer. Merv didn't seem particularly sophisticated when it came to racehorses, but he obviously loved the animals and the sport, which is what really counts in my mind. So my guess is that he'd be very sad to learn that his involvement as a horse owner did not warrant a single mention in his obituary in the New York Times. His only connection to the sport that was discussed there was his early investment in the Teleview Racing Patrol, which he built into the leading source of closed-circuit broadcasts of horse racing to off-track betting and intertrack wagering sites in the country. Instead, the Paper of Record chose to mention the rumors of his being gay, including the ultimately dismissed palimony suit filed against him by one Brent Plott, said to be, among other things, a horse trainer. In a 2006 interview with Rolling Stone, Merv responded to questions on the subject by saying: 'You're asking an eighty-year-old man about his sexuality right now....Get a life!''

Well, Merv had quite a life I suppose, even if he never did make it with one of his horses to the Kentucky Derby as he so dearly desired. One certainly couldn't say that he was in the sport for the money - here was a man who claimed to have made $80 million in royalties just from that little jingle they play during Final Jeopardy! Even if Stevie Wonderboy had won the Derby before going off to stud, he would have been hard pressed to equal that amount (though he could have one day been an answer question to a Final Jeopardy question answer). Makes me think that it might better pay for us all to be tinkling around with a piano rather than with the past performances or pedigree charts. Merv Griffin was 82.

Notes - Aug 12

- One of the criticisms of the Breeders Cup Challenge is that the distances of some of the qualifying races are not entirely relevant to the Championship race they are guaranteeing spots for. Some mentioned the disparity between the nine furlong Diana won by My Typhoon, and the mile and three-eighths F&M Turf, a distance which does seem a stretch for Bill Mott's mare (no disrespect intended to anything associated with that barn right now). But Royal Highness and Jambalaya, who qualified for the F&M Turf and the Turf respectively with their "win and you're in" wins at Arlington, are horses that actually seem more proficient at the longer BC races than the stakes they won on Saturday on what was apparently a course far soggier than the 'good' condition would indicate. Jim O'Donnell, reporting in the Chicago Tribune, wrote that green alligators and Salt Creek toads might have felt more at home on the course.

Royal Highness had never even attempted shorter than a mile and three eighths before the Beverly D. (at 1 3/16). But the pace, a second faster than Sunriver to the half; and a full two seconds quicker to the three-quarters, was fast enough to set up her late run that collared Irridescence in the final strides. This five-year old daughter of the German sire Monsun will feel right at home should she attempt the 11 furlongs of the F&M Turf. She was second in a Grade 1 against males in France last year, and seems to be a legit Breeders Cup horse.

For Christophe Clement, that's his second Grade 1 winner in a row, coming a couple of weeks after In Summation won the Crosby at Del Mar. This guy is really training lights out these days - he's 13-4-4-1 at Saratoga, and hitting a solid .250 for the year. He's won with 23% of his graded stakes runners over the last two years; Pletcher's average is 24% (albeit with like a million more runners).

Citronnade was a big disappointment as the 2-1 favorite. The race chart says she hit the gate, and it looked like the '2' horse knocked her a bit sideways shortly thereafter. So she wasn't even close to the lead, and other than a brief wide foray on the turn, she showed little. Frankel said he could tell after a sixteenth-mile that she was laboring over the wet turf. [Louisville Courier-Journal]

Jambalaya, I think, is another worthy qualifier who'd been more successful recently at longer distance. But designating the Secretariat, a race restricted to three-year olds, as a Challenge race seemed a bit off kilter, especially with it being on the same card as the Million. The Sword Dancer would have obviously been a more logical choice, and one with a result which I don't believe would have displeased the BC folks at ll. Grand Couturier has the looks of a legitimate dark horse who excels at the mile and a half distance; he finished a good third in the same race last year, and was just two lengths behind Arc winner Rail Link in a G1 in France last summer.

But having said that, Secretariat winner Shamdinan (whose 4th dam is the dam of the murdered Epsom/Irish Derby winner Shergar) is an intriguing colt himself; the Secretariat was only his sixth start (and first for Doug O'Neill); he was third in a French G1 in his 4th. And I think that the Breeders Cup is thrilled to see a European get the automatic berth given criticism regarding the foreign contingent being put at a disadvantage by the concept.

- Two more winners for Mott at Saratoga on Sunday, man! He's now 44-13-6-7; four ahead of Pletcher. Crystal Minuet graduated in her 4th start, never seeing the rail from the 10 post, and running down the leaders late after it looked she might stall at the sixteenth pole. This three-year old Kinsman-bred daughter of Theatrical is out of Crystal Symphony, a graded winner on the grass; and a half-sister to the likewise Classic Campaign.

Posted won easily again, following up successfully on his smashing maiden win which earned a 111 Beyer at Belmont. This gelded four-year old NY-bred drew away in hand to win by seven in a final time of 1:21.74; By comparison, Mott's three-year old filly Quota (another winning Churchill shipper) won her open allowance race in 1:23.21. And Posted accomplished this while repeatedly gazing out to the grandstand during the stretch run, obviously wondering why he didn't get one of those chairs.

This is one NY-bred with some fascinating bloodlines. He's by Gone West, out of the British champ Known Fact; and since the latter is actually a half-brother to Gone West's dam Secrettame, Posted is very closely inbred, 2x2, to that half-brother/sister combo; and 3x3 to their broodmare Tamerett.

Elvis Is In The House

- I posted early this day about how hot it's been in New York, and it was Breeders Cup weather today. I also mentioned that I wasn't able to do hours upon hours of work on each day's Saratoga card for the Saratoga Special selection box given my work schedule. After picking three winners on Wednesday, I've had a total of one winner in the last two days. And that one was English Colony, life and death to win by a nose at 6-5. How weak is that? Guess I'll be up late doing Sunday's card..

The weather was clearing as we headed up the Taconic State Parkway, though some stubborn low clouds just refused to yield, creating an eerie scene. When we reached the northern end of the parkway, we were, what, around 45 minutes from Saratoga? This was my usual route to the Spa, and we were tantalizingly close. It was obvious from the sky that friendly high pressure would assure a perfect weather weekend at the races. But we had to turn off at the last exit to head up to Vermont. Shoot. Well, next weekend.

Looks like another tough day of racing on Saturday. Just a couple of quick notes, and then gotta get some sleep. The Leopard, a $2.5 million Storm Cat colt trained by Pletcher, makes his second career start. He ran second by 1 1/2 lengths to Fed Watcher in his debut, a race in which the winner created a splash with a Beyer of 98. However, that fig has apparently been downgraded sharply after Fed Watcher ran 5th in the Sanford, since The Leopard is sporting a rating of 83. I picked him in the Special, but I like the long series of works and the breeding on Zito's first-timer Aquarian. He's a son of Fusaichi Pegasus, a decent first-out sire at 11%, out of an AP Indy half sister to Go For Gin and Pleasant Tap. May pay to watch for longer distances, but Zito's juvenile first-timers are pretty sharp again here this year, with a winner, second, and third out of five starters.

In the 7th, we have Uncle Indy, who's been an international good thing his last two starts. The tote action has not translated to a win, but maybe a switch to grass, assuming the race stays on, will help. He's by AP Indy, out of the Grade 1 (Flower Bowl) grass winner Auntie Mame, who is by the grass champ Theatrical.

And as I mentioned previously, I liked English Channel (Smart Strike) even before the announcement of Better Talk Now's injury, and the race now becomes, I think, a foregone conclusion. Not to say that Trippi's Storm and Always First aren't nice horses, but with Fri Guy to serve as a willing target once again, as English Channel prefers, I think this is one in the selection box I should get right.

One last note. We had two teenagers in the car, but since they both had their IPOD's we were actually allowed to listen to what we wanted to. The highlight for the Head Chef by far was Elvis Costello's Oliver's Army. When I heard the lyric:

If you're out of luck or out of work
We could send you to Johannesburg

..it made me think of Hennessy, Johannesburg's sire, who passed away at the age of 14. Guess I have a pretty one track mind these days, eh? I tried to link to his Stallion Register page, but it's already been taken down, on to the mythical Dead Stallion Register that would make a great present for the degenerate horseplayer in your family if it existed. But it doesn't. So instead, I give you Elvis.

On The Road Again

- Was this your celebrated summer? So asked the band Hüsker Du, on their classic raging hardcore album New Day Rising. I often think of that lyric when I look at the calendar and suddenly see the end of season well within sight. Summer in New York City has once again melted into an endless procession of stifling heat, thunderstorms that bring no relief (and no subway service), and jeez, this year, even a tornado! Another week to go until I finally hit Saratoga for a week which will no doubt pass by as fleetingly as that twister and leave us with Labor Day staring us directly in the face. Do you remember when the first snowfall fell? / And summer barely had a snowball's chance in hell?

This weekend, it's another trip to Vermont for family purposes, so with a day of work today before leaving tonight, posting will be scarce or non-existent until much later tonight. I forgot to mention that I'm now participating in the daily gridbox picks in the Saratoga Special, and you can even catch a glimpse of my mug (squinting from the sun at Del Mar...). But you have to go to the Special site, register for the ST Clubhouse (free), and download the PDF editions. It's well worth the effort. And not just for my smiling face and crummy picks.

I can tell you dear readers that these picks, while taken most seriously, are mostly first impression selections from study of the Racing Form, and without the help of the advanced tools of Formulator. Yet, I find that when I delve further into selected races with the advanced tools, in many cases my selections remain the same, and further reinforced by the detailed data. The best thing I've gotten out off the handicapping I've done for the paper is a return to those solid basics of form, pace, and class. Formulator is awesome, but one can get bogged down in unnecessary details if he/she doesn't pay attention to the basics first.

The forecast says rain for Saratoga, but I don't see a drop of it on the radar now. Nonetheless, the track is muddy, all the races are off the turf, and there are a million scratches. So there go my picks. You think I designated "if on dirt" picks? Nope. So I'm not going to elaborate on any of them here today.

I've also done my detailed horse-by-horse analysis for the Arlington Million, Beverly D, and Sword Dancer; and those will all be in tomorrow's Special, available online later tonight. I'll discuss those races here a bit more, hopefully, when I get up to Vermont tonight. But if I'm unable to, I like the Citronnade-Lady of Venice exacta cold in the Beverly D; English Channel in the Sword Dancer - pretty boring and basic thus far, eh? But I do like the French invader Doctor Dino in the Million in a mild upset. This horse has really improved this year, finished less than three lengths behind Dylan Thomas in the G1 Prix Ganay, and a close up third despite an extremely wide journey in a G1 in Singapore. But I'll certainly be using The Tin Man prominently as well. As I said, hopefully more on this later tonight. Until then, unless I manage to sneak in a quickie post or two - have a great day!

Haves and Have-Nots

- Philadelphia Park tried to sleaze their way out of building a permanent slots facility, which would have left their dwindling base of on-track horseplayers huddled on the 5th floor. That effort was denied after an outcry from furious horsemen and Gaming Board members. But they are still ticking off the board, this time by not having yet submitted for review their proposed changes in their construction plans for the facility. Dec 18 is the deadline to either have those plans approved or to apply for an extension of their current temporary slots license. "It behooves you to get your plans in ... to give us plenty of time," gaming board chairman Tad Decker told [Philly Park Chairman Bob] Green. [AP]

Whatsmore, the track told the board that they will not meet the 2008 deadline for completion of the facility due to the discovery of cement foundations from a defunct Bethlehem Steel factory. The new work will mean an opening in the second quarter of 2009.

Speed is a primary focus of the gaming board, which has approved 11 slots casinos in Pennsylvania, because a portion of the gambling revenue is to be parlayed into tax cuts for homeowners in much of the state and people who pay Philadelphia's wage tax.

But across the state at the Meadows harness track, the owners are sparing no expense. They've announced plans to not only build a permanent facility housing 3,000 machines as well as a 205 room hotel/spa, but a brand new grandstand for the harness track as well. As opposed to the anger towards Philly Park, the Gaming Board is understandably thrilled.

"It's outstanding news," said board member Sanford Rivers..."They seem to be exceeding what they said they're going to do. They're saying they want to be bigger and better."
.....
The hotel and spa will cost about $75,000 per room to build, or about $15 million, said Michael Graninger, general manager of The Meadows. The expanded project would add about 125 jobs, for a total of 1,200 employees.[Pittsburgh Tribune Review]

The expansion is made possible by far far higher revenues from slots that were originally projected. You may recall that the Meadows' license application was the only one from an existing track that was somewhat in doubt due to low revenue expectations. But while the board had projected a mere $108 per machine in daily take, the actual numbers were an impressive $371 per machine in July, a figure that some racinos in New York State would be thrilled to be earning half of.

And it's nice to see that this is one racino that will at least attempt to highlight the racing.

The permanent building would combine slots and harness racing under one roof. A second-floor steakhouse would overlook the racetrack and the casino floor. A food court with seating for 200 would be accessible from the grandstands and casino.

"It's a completely interactive gaming experience," LaTorre said. "You can play the slot machines and walk right out on the track. We're trying to do everything we can to bring the two different aspects together."

While there's been no evidence of any crossover from slots players to the races thus far, here's one racetrack which will at least give it a shot.

- In West Virginia, with the final table games referendum coming up on Saturday in Kanawha County (where over 10,000 early ballots have already been cast), gambling opponents are being swamped financially by the track and slots supporters. Tri-State Racetrack and Gaming Center spent $300,000 just on the ballots and poll workers, and more on a flurry of television, radio and print ads pushing for table games.

Tri-State has also paid for T-shirts, giveaways and mass mailings urging voters to vote “yes” on the issue.

“We did what we needed to do,” [VP Dan Adkins] said. He did say the final cost to Tri-State for the election would be less than $1 million. [Charleston Gazette]

And as far as the opponents?

“We don’t really have the resources [to run television ads],” said Melody Potter, one of the organizers of the Kanawha County campaign against table gaming.

Potter said gaming opponents have spent about $7,000 so far. Much of the expense has been for about 2,300 yard signs urging voters to vote against table gaming. Potter said opponents also sprang for 20 4-by-4-foot signs and five 4-by-1-foot signs.

So, which side do you think is going to win? As with all of American politics these days, it's all about the cash.