Zenyatta

- Wow, Zenyatta is a three-year old filly from the Moss/Sherriffs team who was an eyeful both before and throughout the 5th at Hollywood on Saturday. This half-sister, by Street Cry, to Balance was stretching out to two turns in her second start after storming from last to first in a 12 horse field last month (defeating Friday winner Carmel Coffee). 2-1 in the morning line, she went off at even money.

Zenyatta looked jaw-droppingly gorgeous in the post parade with her glistening brown coat, massive chest, and a long, majestically-bowed neck. Things didn't go well at the start, as she was off slowly and away last. After trailing down the backstretch, David Flores took his filly four wide around the turn - "If she wins, she's a half an hour the best," Vic Stauffer noted. That might be conservative. Zenyatta circled the field with ease, had only one horse to run down, and did so easily, in hand after Flores just nudged her to the lead ("There's more there," Flores told Frank Lyons, on interview duty on TVG, after the race).

Her final time of 1:40 4/5 tied the (Cushion) track record. "Here a future superstar!" exclaimed Stauffer. Frank Lyons remarked: "I've seen a lot of horses in my life, and even though it's only a maiden win and and an allowance win, this filly I think is one of the more special racehorses I've seen in many years." Ken Rudolph said that he just saw the Kentucky Oaks winner for 2008. Todd Schrmmppff reminded him that she's already three-years old. Note to TVG: Find a replacement for Gary Stevens pronto.

Saturday Morning Notes - Dec 15

- One of the reasons why my handicapping and betting has sucked so much lately is, I think, that I spend too much time writing instead of studying races. That's probably, in the long run, one financial benefit I get out of this blog. However, with about a hour and 45 minutes until the first at the Big A, I'm going to get back to work on the card. I'll just leave you with a couple of notes.

Game of Skill (12-1) looks like a live longshot in the opener, cutting back to six furlongs for Juan Ortiz, 6-2-1-1 on the inner track thus far; his Count the Senora was third at 36-1 in the 6th on Friday. Game of Skill ran third in 20K open company at this distance two back; the winner was a Toddster dropper who romped by six, and three others have since come back to run second. Should get a good spot up front with his tactical speed.

Country Star is the 5-2 favorite in the Hollywood Starlet. I loved her Alcibiad, and probably would have been all over her in the Juvie Fillies had she run. But there are some really nice looking fillies in the race, and here's a thought: Country Star has run on the turf, and on the Keeneland Polytrack. The latter seems, to me, to be the synthetic surface to which grass form is most obviously and readily transferable. So if you like Country Star, you're assuming she'll also like the Cushion Track. If that's the case, then how about Grace and Power? All four of her races have been on the grass, and her distaff pedigree is loaded with grass relatives (Al Mamoon, Honor in War, La Gueriere, Lasting Approval, to name a few). The daughter of More Than Ready is thrice stakes placed out east, and ships cross country for owner Bobby Flay, and trainer Steve Klesaris. According to Formulator, the latter hasn't started a horse in Southern California for at least the last five years. Cushion Track is a question mark, but her sharp form is worth a look at her 8-1 morning line.

And James Odato has a copy of Capital Play's latest offer, which focuses only on Aqueduct, and proposes to give the state at least $125 million in upfront money for the right to develop Aqueduct and sell its simulcast signal.

The plan involves getting the rights to develop Aqueduct's racing plan and real estate. That includes building a video lottery terminal casino and running the gambling there.
.....
Capital Play promised to spend $350 million to build a destination casino for 4,500 VLTs. Also, it would give the state $75 million for a 49-year lease on Aqueduct, or $150 million for a 99-year lease; a $25 million payment for the simulcast rights for Aqueduct races; and $25 million to handle wagering at the Queens track.

I imagine that NYRA is not going to easily give up their control of wagering at the Big A. And again, I think it's highly hypocritical of Capital Play to now be willing to work with an organization its vilified so viciously and unfairly in the last couple of months. But the up front payment would effectively reimburse the state for a portion of the money due to NYRA in the MOU. The proposal is also in the spirit of Bruno's desire to split up various operations amongst various parties. So I imagine it could be taken seriously and perhaps embraced by Bruno as a partial face-saver with which to get out of the corner he's rapidly painting himself into.

You see? Now it's only an hour and 20 minutes until first post time! Later....

Three Four Five Men In a Room

- The Head Chef just called from the Spitzer's Manhattan residence. Nah, I don't like to namedrop and brag or anything, eh? You may recall that she got hired to work on the catering staff for what we believe was a fundraiser for the Governor a couple of weeks ago. Today, it's a luncheon held by Ms. Spitzer (try saying that ten times fast). I told her to see if they have any Seabiscuit posters hanging on the wall, thinking that perhaps the Governor is a closet degenerate who just pretends to not care all that much about the sport.

Mr. Spitzer isn't there, but he might as well have flown down on a state helicopter for lunch for all the good his being in Albany is doing at this time. Yesterday's special Senate session was so uneventful that it didn't even merit a separate story in the NY Times; merely a paragraph in its Metro Briefing section. The Senate did grant raises to state judges, but Senate officials privately acknowledged that the move was made largely to antagonize Democrats. [NY Times]

The chamber did actually address an issue that could eventually effect the racing franchise; Matt Hegarty of the Form seems to be only reporter who noticed that they passed the bill giving racino owners a larger share of the revenues from slot machines at the expense of horsemen and the state's education fund. That is the measure that Vernon and Tioga Downs owner Jeff Gural is insisting upon lest he shutter his tracks; but the Assembly likely will not be convening to take that, or any other matter up. (And a sign posted at Vernon this morning announces that the barns will close as of Monday; it blames the closure on Joe Faraldo, whose harness horsemen's group opposes the bill.) If passed and signed into law, the measure would make the Aqueduct racino that much more lucrative to.....er, whoever will be running it.

Negotiations continue behind the scenes on the franchise, but with the legislature all but certain to be done for the year, any agreement will have to be in the form of a "handshake" deal to keep racing going until it can be formally ratified once lawmakers return on January 9. After taking some hits from Senator Bruno, who has clearly been trying to shift the blame for any potential shutdown on the other parties, Spitzer's office fought back to pin the responsibility for any stoppage on Bruno. Spitzer's budget director Paul Francis figuratively put Charlie Hayward in "the room," increasing its occupancy from the usual three to four, and thereby further isolating the Senate Majority Leader.

“In the last few days, we’ve begun to see serious movement and real progress, but the Senate is still holding onto positions that would make it impossible for a deal by year end.."
....
“If there is no four-way deal, there is a real risk racing will cease on Jan. 1, which will be very damaging to the industry," said Francis, who is negotiating along with Patrick Foye and Richard Rifkin on behalf of Spitzer with legislative aides. “We need to have the Senate move closer to the position of the other three parties for a four-way deal." [Bloodhorse]

James Odato, writing in the Albany Times-Union, puts the number at five, including the Oversight Board which would, in theory, take over racing operations should no deal be reached by Dec 31. But either way, despite Sheldon Silver's intransigence and disinterest, as well as his opposition to VLT's at Belmont aside, it's Bruno who remains the obstacle, with the other parties in agreement on the basics.

A major sticking point involves simulcasting. The Senate has been insisting on taking the lucrative simulcasting business away from NYRA and awarding it to an outside company. It has not publicly revealed who should get the contract. The Spitzer administration considers the Senate position a poison pill that will prevent a final deal.

“NYRA needs to keep that," a state official said.

Also unresolved is the insistence by Bruno that the NYRA board be dissolved and replaced by a new slate of directors. Bruno has said NYRA's many problems over the years require a new team be brought on to run things.

“It’s just not going to happen. They are NYRA," said a source who has been involved in the lengthy talks in Albany the week of Dec. 9. [Bloodhorse]

(The accounts on Bloodhorse.com are, as usual, written by Tom Precious, the State Capitol correspondent for the Buffalo News who continues his outstanding work reporting on the matter.) The length of the franchise extension, and the nature of a new public agency to oversee NYRA remain issues as well.

Making Stuff Up (Part 2)

- I wrote the other day about TVG's agreement with the New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority (Monmouth and Meadowlands), based on a story on Bloodhorse.com which reported that the deal was "exclusive" with respect to television and wagering rights. However, Matt Hegarty reported the next day in the Form that the agreement allows the NJSEA to sell wagering rights to other companies.

"It's really the best of both worlds," [a NJSEA spokesperson] said. "TVG has the most widely distributed television network, and we get to take advantage of that, and we still get access to the other account-wagering companies." [DRF]

This arrangement is similar, though not identical, to the one currently in place in California which allows the ADW's to take wagers from any of the state's tracks regardless of which network their broadcasts are exclusive to.

Bloodhorse.com subsequently changed their story, but quoted TVG's original release which stated that it had “renewed its exclusive television distribution and account wagering rights agreement” with NJSEA. That statement was just not true. When pressed for an explanation of the language in the release, TVG's David Nathanson issued the following statement to The Blood-Horse: “We are pleased that the NJSEA chose to extend our existing agreement.” Nathanson may have the same PR coach as the Knicks' Isiah Thomas.

The agreement however does not permit NJSEA to sell wagering rights to all ADW's, but Magna/Churchill's TrackNet Media is on the list, and a deal is said to be in the works.

Emily Litella Returns

What's this I hear about Magna melting Greenland's ice? Ruining Gulfstream wasn't enough, now they're contributing to this terrible global warming? Aren't they already making everything hotter with all that horse doo-doo? What if the water levels rise and flood their tracks, and they don't even have Polytrack? And why did they have to fire that nice man in Maryland? Who's going to feed the little horsies their crab cakes now? There won't even BE crabs in Chesapeake Bay if they keep melting the ice! Imagine, horses being starved to death! It's outrageous, how do they....

Huh? What's that?

Oh. Well, that's completely different then.

Never mind.





Gilda's Club

Bruno: 2-1 on Franchise Agreement

- Joe Bruno, under fierce pressure from his Saratoga Springs constituency to engineer a franchise settlement, is nonetheless still holding out for a NYRA extension of less than 30 years (15 to 20, he says), a completely reconstituted NYRA board, an oversight agency with “specialists" to help run simulcasting and marketing, and slots at Belmont. However, Tom Precious reports on Bloodhorse.com that Bruno feels that it's 2-1 that a franchise deal comes together before Dec. 31. This despite the Assembly's absence from Thursday's special legislative session, and Charles Hayward's stated opposition to all of the above save the Belmont slots, which are staunchly opposed by Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, though now apparently supported by Spitzer.

Of the abbreviated special Senate session, which won't even start until 3 PM, Bruno said:

"We're here because we're literally running out of time....We cannot govern singularly, by ourselves. I wish we could, because we don't have a partner with the Assembly and this governor doesn't appear to be able to or willing to govern," [Newsday]

If the Senator is referring to the fact that the Governor either can't or won't generate any influence over a Speaker and Assembly of his own Democratic party when he says that Spitzer seems unable or unwilling to govern, he certainly has a point. Sheldon Silver seems to operate in his own little world where party designations mean nothing. He strikes me as a man of little principle other than his own self-interest and status quo. His opposition to the Belmont VLT's, which could end up being the eventual final issue in the matter, is likely nothing more than a negotiating ploy to obtain concessions in other matters, including his drive to obtain pay raises for his members.

Bruno now says that he could accept a "handshake" deal on the framework of a deal which would retain NYRA, and return after January 1 to work out the details.

The idea was first floated Dec. 12 by Gov. Eliot Spitzer. “It’s conceivable that you could have no resolution by the 31st, but we could have agreements that keep us moving forward and a resolution in the first week of January," he said.

“We’ve done that before, so I guess whatever works, works,’’ responded Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno, whose district includes Saratoga. “The important thing is that we have continuity, that we have something definitive." [Bloodhorse]

Tom Precious also reports that Capital Play is still heavily involved, and that they have hired two lobbyists that are close to Bruno.

Capital Play is seeking a deal that would let NYRA run the racing operations, but it would control the other aspects of the business, including the simulcasting and casino developments.

If that is true, their continued misleading and vicious attacks on NYRA are the height of hypocrisy. Sure, NYRA is an evil incompetent monster that is taking money away from our precious schoolchildren, but yeah, if we get a piece of the casino action, then OK, we'll overlook that. Gimme a break.

Heading South

- It's supposed to snow and sleet around these parts on Thursday, so chances are there won't be racing at the Big A. NYRA will sometimes cancel early if the forecast is grim, thereby sparing fans the inconvenience and saving a few bucks.

So let's head south to Calder for the 8th race. I know I wrote that until I finally pick a winner on this blog, I'd avoid picking maiden winners moving into allowance company. Nonetheless, I like Euro Silver Jet (5-1), moving into allowance company after graduating in his second start, and his first on a fast track, for trainer Stephen L DiMauro. What you don't see in the pp's is the way he dropped a good length or two off the lead around the turn, switched to the outside, and came back gamely for the win while zig-zagging a bit through the lane. Second place finisher Two Double ran a close second in his next race. Euro Silver Jet, a half brother to seven winners including juvenile stakes winner Hyte Regency, has had over four weeks to recover, and comes into this race with an identical workout pattern of a bullet half followed by a half mile breeze six days afterwards. Jockey Manoel Cruz has won 38% of the time (13 for 34) for the barn at this track over the last five years.

There you go, that's my best shot..

- Jay Cronley, writing on ESPN.com, has some Christmas presents for us. They're in the form of some advice to help keep us all from losing.

If you let the odds chase you off a horse, or pull you onto one, you lose.

It's 25-1, must not be any good.

It's 3-1, must be ready.

Hang on, take a moment to look who is betting, it's a large group of people much dumber than you are.

This is something that I need to keep in mind, particularly regarding the longshots. (I'm a hopeless case when it comes to seeing the hot money come in.) It's not that I think that all 25-1 shots are no good; just the ones that look as if they should be significantly lower. However, and certainly with no offense to the readers of this site, good point there about taking that moment to look around.

If you don't get to know small tracks, you lose.

Numerous races, only three horses can win, and one is frequently 15-1 or better.

Better still, small tracks attract handicappers worse than the horses.

That's a frequent theme of the writer, and one that I've yet to find the will to fully explore. Growing up betting the ponies in New York has made me spoiled, what can I say.

My favorite of Cronley's goodies is this:

If you don't bet a tip, you lose.

What's two bucks among friends.

It's good karma. [ESPN.com]

News and Notes - Dec 12

- Reader Glimmerglass points out that trainer Gary Thomas has appealed the stewards' decision to take no action against the dead heat winners of the Delta Downs Jackpot. His horse, Golden Yank, was between, and just a neck back of Z Humor and the fast closing Turf War at the wire. Anything that happened did so in the very latter stages of the race, and personally I can't see anything on the pan shot. Can't find a head-on (not on Cal Racing), so I'll have to reserve judgment on this one.

- The New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority has re-upped for exclusive coverage on TVG. The network's future has to be considered fuzzy given the sale of its parent company, and the fact that its deal in New York expires along with NYRA's franchise at the end of the year. TrackNet will obviously be seeking those rights for its HRTV network, and some people have speculated that Joe Bruno's interest in the state controlling NYRA's simulcast signal is related to a desire on his part to reward the Magna/Churchill partnership with those rights. The Senator denies that. (His son worked as a lobbyist for Magna until January, 2006.)

Accompanying the article linked to above on Bloodhorse.com is another on the future of NJ racing with its subsidy from Atlantic City casinos having expired.

“The elephant in the room is the casinos are killing us, and legislators are scared of the casinos,” [trainer John] Forbes said. “The Breeders’ Cup (at Monmouth) may convince legislators that, even though they don’t want to give us slots, they have to go to the casinos and say, ‘Pick your poison. Either give racetracks the ability to have slots or give them money.'"

Across, and up the Hudson River, the NY State Senate is set to return to Albany for a special session on Thursday, but the Assembly has no plans to do so. Closed door sessions on the franchise are said to be continuing, and a Bruno spokesperson said: "There has been some progress made by the staffs" of Silver, Bruno and Spitzer.

A spokesman for Sheldon Silver, the Assembly majority leader, said he was optimistic the issue will be resolved soon. [Newsday]

- Breeders' Cup chief Greg Avioli told the Lexington Herald Reader that they've had "very preliminary discussions" with Churchill about hosting the 2009 event. "We're just not as far down the road as we are with Oak Tree (at Santa Anita)."

- Peace has broken out between Philly Park management and its horsemen. After management's foiled attempt to scrap plans for a standalone casino, the horsemen have agreed to a 7-year deal which includes commitment for a $250 million racino to be constructed in the parking lot. This will allow the track to be, as Dick Jerardi puts it in the Philly Daily News, the track again, not with slots on two of the three floors. The track also agreed to a $25 to $30 million backstretch renovation.

Management has agreed to renovate all 36 barns over an 8-year period and the 12 dormitory facilities over a 4-year period. If someone used the term "horse ghetto'' to describe current conditions on the Pha backstretch, that would be a charitable characterization.

"Philadelphia Park has really stepped up and delivered,'' said Mike Ballezzi, PTHA executive director. [Philly Daily News]

Hunch Bets for Wednesday, Dec 12

Looming Large 5th at Golden Gate
Thanks Lord 1st at Hawthorne
Again And Again 5th at the Big A
Slick As They Come 7th at Charles Town
Her Own Storm 1st at Hawthorne
Byballot 2nd at Hollywood

Coolmore Hype

- Hi, and welcome to the 3,052,088th most trafficked website in the world. With your continued loyalty and word of mouth (and a few more links from Equidaily), I think I can crack the 3,052,000 mark some time in 2008.

Coolmore is making a big push on Scat Daddy; he's the cover boy of their annual advertising supplement, which is actually a whole separate magazine mailed to Bloodhorse subscribers. He'll debut for $30,000 in 2008, which seems pretty high when you see it next to other, established Coolmore America sires such as Thunder Gulch ($20,000), Grand Slam ($35,000), or Royal Academy ($15,000).

Scat is the technique perfected in American jazz of singing without words, and presumably the Daddy was rather good at it [oh man.. - ed. note] Scat Daddy boasts everything an American pedigere should offer, and a race record to match.

With all due respect to a horse who won four graded stakes (two Grade 1's), I think Scat Daddy's record looks better on paper than it really was. He's a horse who didn't leave much of an impression in my opinion. He wasn't particularly fast early; nor did he have a dynamic finishing kick. Even when he closed to win the Champagne and the Fountain of Youth, it was more a case of him grinding down tiring leaders. His two big prep wins in Florida were accomplished against fields of Triple Crown flops, and he never ran faster than a 98 Beyer.

Scat Daddy is out of a Mr. Prospector mare, making him inbred to that one 4x2; and he's inbred to Northern Dancer as well. Whether he'll succeed at stud is anyone's guess, but Coolmore will do everything they can to see that he does, especially since they also stand his sire Johannesburg (for $65,000). (Remember that they lost the latter's sire, Hennessy, to a heart attack earlier this year.)

Johannesburg is getting a huge promotional push too; his $65,000 fee is second only to Giant's Causeway at $125,000 at Coolmore's Ashford Farm in Kentucky. In addition to the ten stakes winner from his first crop (three year olds this year), he has A Serious Second Crop, their ad tells us. But the best they can do as far as U.S. runners goes is a couple of maiden winners; he has one stakes winner from crop #2, that in Ireland. Johannesburg's U.S. stakes winners in addition to Scat Daddy - Teuflesberg, La Traviata, Marcavelly, and Baroness Thacher - are sprinters to milers. With his brilliance on the race track still relatively fresh in peoples' minds, Coolmore is clearly trying to get all it can out of Johannesburg right now; he was bred to 195 mares this year; and Equiline has his current two-year crop at 221, is that even possible?? Building up his son Scat Daddy is no doubt part of the strategy. Seems to me there's a lot of hype built into those stud fees, and neither seems like a bargain to me.

Tuesday Notes - Dec 11

- Hunch bets for today:

I Have No Idea 5th Penn National (You can say that again...)
Rockin' Again 8th at Penn National
I'm No Cheerleader 6th at Philly Park

- Greg Hall reports in the Courier-Journal that the Breeders' Cup is considering Santa Anita, the 2008 host, to again stage the event in 2009. That would be the first time that a venue has hosted the races two years in a row. Churchill was mentioned as the other possibility, but the bottom-line oriented public company reiterated the fact that they don't make enough money to make it worth their while. Churchill makes what it would on a regular Saturday -- or a little more, track President Steve Sexton has said. An absolutely shocking attitude from the home of the Kentucky Derby.

Running two years in the Los Angeles market at Santa Anita would give good odds for decent weather, allow extended marketing opportunities and help the event engage the music and entertainment industries, [BC CEO Greg] Avioli said.

I wonder too if the Cushion Track, which would preclude the sloppy mess we saw this year and which seems to have received generally good reveiws despite its present problems, is a factor as well. I'm sure that Avioli has seen enough sloppy tracks to last for quite awhile. (And note that New York was not mentioned at all, fallout, no doubt, from the uncertainty over the franchise. I'm sure, however, that such consequences of the gridlock, while important to NY fans and horsemen alike, have never, ever entered the minds of the clueless politicians involved....and that goes for all of them.)

Speaking of synthetic tracks, I highly recommend the current print issue of Bloodhorse, which is devoted in its entirety to the subject. The articles are not available online, and I imagine that Dan Liebman wouldn't appreciate it if I excerpted large portions of it here. So you'll have to find it on your local newsstand (good luck with that if you don't live in Kentucky). But it's an excellent issue, with a wide sampling of opinions from track executives, horse owners, trainers, jockeys, breeders, track supers, and vets. Just briefly, from what I've read thus far, the general attitude is, yes, there have been less fatal and career-ending injuries, but horses are still suffering ailments. However, they seem to be to the upper body and hind legs, whereas the opposite has mostly been the case in the past. Another interesting and recurring point is that when the surface is installed, the old track is dug up, and a new base and cushion is installed. Some people seem to think that that's what has made the tracks seem safer as much as, if not more than, the synthetic surface itself. Prairie Meadows, a track which has had problems with fatalities, recently chose the course of merely replacing the base and keeping the dirt; so it will be interesting to see how that works out.

What is for certain is that the jury is still out. Liebman points out in his preface that there are no new synthetic installations on the horizon at all; so the nine current ones will serve as the laboratory for the time being. And indeed, we have surfaces by three different manufacturers in a wide variety of climates, so it just may be that these nine tracks will prove to be a large enough sample for the industry to see where it goes from here.

- Off topic, but I just discovered today that the NY Times, buried deep beneath their online sports section, has a hockey blog, and a superb one at that. I know there's at least one other hockey fan out there, so check it out. This entry concerns the connection between Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin's hand-picked successor puppet, and Russia's SKA St. Petersburg hockey club, coached by the familiar NHL assistant Barry Smith.

Magnaville

- Cookie Jill passed along a link to an article from the Times-Picayune of New Orleans website about Magnaville, a community developed for Katrina evacuees by Frank Stronach and his Magna International (that's his company that actually makes money). You might recall that Stronach airlifted 260 displaced residents to the Palm Meadows Training Center; that was over two years ago now, and Frank had bigger plans - a "uniquely Canadian solution" he said at the time.

This is the magnanimous side of Frank, and what he came up with is Magnaville, and yes, that's really the name. At least it's not Frankville or Frank's Planned Community. As I've said, Frank Stronach, whatever one thinks of his aptitude for running racetrack companies, is quite a fascinating guy; so it comes as no surprise that the community is just a tad on the eclectic side.

Canadaville [as it has become to be known by the locals], the brainchild of Magna founder Frank Stronach, goes well beyond corporate largesse and into the realm of social engineering. Stronach envisioned an experiment arguably more Canadian than American that would transform low-income city dwellers into enterprising organic farmers. Along the way, he aimed to raise them out of poverty, offering five years of free rent and other services, such as transportation to work, as an economic springboard.
....
The village's rules, laid out in a contract residents sign, require all adults to work or attend school, as well as perform eight hours of community service a week. Though rent is free, residents pay utilities. Magna also performs background checks to weed out people with violent histories and requires residents to submit to drug tests, on demand, if village authorities suspect drug use. A handful of families have been asked to leave, mostly because they either couldn't or wouldn't kick a drug habit.. [Times Picayune]

The farming idea apparently was slow to catch on with too many residents. But recent efforts have succeeded in involving more people.

Magna now aims to take things to the next level, with company officials discussing how to start a commercial farm, Carmichael said. They plan to encourage residents to become microfarmers, essentially part-time farmers who take on several acres of land as a side job to make extra money.

Ideally, people who work relatively low-wage jobs could farm on the site, making extra money that would allow them to build savings and assets....The company also will develop the "Freshstart" brand that would be used to market the organic produce or other products.

I'm getting this picture of Gulfstream Park as a giant cooperative farm, with goats and chickens occupying the stalls currently housing equines. Throw in a few slot machines, and it could be a money maker.

- And thanks to reader JPJ who sent along an account by the NY Daily News' Jerry Bossert of his getting reamed by a steward for having the nerve to question a non-DQ at the Big A on Sunday. "We don't have to justify our decisions every time to you," he was told. It was the third race, in which Serious Vow, with Alan Garcia, checked sharply around the sixteenth pole. They were pinned down on the rail after turning for home; Garcia at first tried to get up the rail, but was blocked by La Porta. When he then tried to split La Porta and Rough Water, he was denied when La Porta drifted out under left handed whipping by John Velazquez. The objection was lodged by trainer Carlos Martin. It's tough to say that Garcia was entitled to the narrow opening between the two. But it was certainly worth asking for an explanation. And as Bossert wrote, the public needs to know the stewards' reasoning.

Once again, as we have stated numerous times, the stewards should be on the record with written explanations about why they chose to disqualify a horse or not. Treating someone with no respect and yelling at them is not the way to be a steward. It is called being a bully. [NY Daily News]

Dead Heat, Dead Races, Dead Bidder

- Z Humor and Turf War split $800,000 for dead heating in a wild edition of the $1 million Boyd Gaming Delta Jackpot on Friday night. Z Humor was just a length or two behind a torrid pace set by St. Joe. The first half of 45.93 was virtually tied with a five furlong allowance for the fastest split of the day; the filly stakes (with a run to the turn one sixteenth of a mile shorter) went in 46.78, and an earlier mile state-bred allowance in 48.72.

The race slowed down significantly after that half mile. Z Humor crept up the rail to engage the leader, as they went to the six furlongs in 1:11.91, a quarter of just about 26 seconds flat. Mott's colt took the lead, hitting the mile in 1:38.68, that quarter going in 26.77. At this point, with the half mile to the sixteenth pole run in 52.75 seconds ('ugly racing' anyone?), as one might expect, a couple of horses were bearing down on the faltering leader, including Turf War, who was dead last after the first half. It looked like he was going to go past, but Z Humor was dead game, and fought on admirably under a furious ride by Garrett Gomez to retain a share of the win. Golden Yank was gaining between horses, and there was said to be contact among the three (a claim of foul against the two winners was dismissed), though it's not apparent on the pan shot.

Z Humor had a very poor finish to a five furlong workout a few days before the Juvenile. He failed to gallop out at all, and Mott spoke as if he might scratch him when interviewed on The Works. But he ran, and was inexplicably bet heavily to 6-1, before fading to 5th, far behind War Pass. This was his first stakes win, and he's the 21st stakes winner of the year for his sire Distorted Humor, who is now third on the national sires list, close behind AP Indy but far behind Smart Strike.

Turf War is a full brother to Grasshopper who was making his first start on dirt after four tries on the Poly at Woodbine.

- The three new Breeders' Cup races added for the Friday before the big day range from 'oh no' to 'who cares' to 'gimme a break.' Turf sprints are a recent phenomenon, at least here in New York, that most bettors seem to agree we could do without. A turf race for two-year old fillies? Quick - who won the Juvenile Turf this year? And a mile and a half dirt race? I can't think of a single horse that was either entered in, scratched from, or considered for this year's Breeders' Cup that would have had any interest in a race of that sort. It's bad enough seeing important races run at a mile and an eighth consistently fall apart. Horses in this country are not bred to run a mile and a half, and I'd guess that the chances are pretty good that the race will be filled with horses who will have run for claiming tags at some point during the year. Come to think of it, a Breeders' Cup Claiming Crown race for horses entered for a tag of $50,000 or less at a standard distance would be far, far more attractive to this observer, both from a sporting and betting standpoint.

- I wasn't even going to mention the piece of garbage published in the New York Sun as an 'Opinion' piece today; but I guess somebody has to say something. Written by a consultant to Capital Play's PR firm Sheinkopf Ltd, it's nothing more than a perverse summary of all the distortions we've heard opponents hurl at NYRA throughout the franchise drama, with some outright lies mixed in for good measure. In addition to the usual crap suggesting that it's all NYRA's fault that attendance has dwindled and that the business is far in the red, we're told that the Getnick contract "directly violates existing State law" (that has not been determined to this point), that "NYRA is forcing the public to subsidize a corrupt agency" (the agency has received a clean bill of ethical health), and that the $250 million bailout money "would otherwise have gone to State education funding" (yeah, I'm so fucking sure). And, as usual and as in the case of their TV ad, Capital Play offers no suggestions as to how they would make things better. Perhaps that's because the ideas they offered - giant signs on buildings, a "beautiful fence" around Saratoga, and luring men to the track by turning it into a singles bar - have long been discredited and ridiculed.

Sunday Morning Notes - Dec 9

- Pletcher told Bloodhorse that Sunriver "will be racing again next year and he'll be staying in California.". I wouldn't have been at all shocked if that was not to be the case after he got a Grade 1 win in the Hollywood Turf Cup, especially after first reading the trainer tell the LA Times:

"With a horse like this, and the major stallion prospect he is and with the pedigree he has, we were focused on getting that Grade I, so it was a big step for him."

Maybe it's not the biggest deal in the world, but I think that if I were the Mythical Commissioner of Racing, I would issue a memo gently suggesting to horsemen that, in the best interests of the sport and in the spirit of public relations, they don't make comments like this. Especially if they intend to race the horse in the future. That being the case (and if it really is in this instance), us racing fans would love to hear of the horse's short and longterm goals, so that we can contemplate and anticipate what is yet to come for a horse who made tremendous strides this year, and whose talents and bloodlines could very well lead him to the BC Turf next fall, or, who knows, perhaps instead (since the short time in between is far too short for the Toddster's tastes), a foray to Paris for the Arc. We couldn't care less about what his stallion prospects are, we really don't. And to hear about them immediately following a race only detracts from the moment and reminds us that this sport at its highest level is nothing more than a prelude to the more lucrative business that lies ahead.

I think that bettors got psyched out by all the talk about the turf conditions and Sunriver's preference for a firm course. It's hard to imagine a more obvious case of lone early speed than was indicated here; yet the bettors instead opted for Frankel's import Champ Elysees. (Ken Rudolph, on TVG, drew guffaws from the Head Chef when he pronounced the horse's name as Champ E-LEE-SEES.) I'd guess that those who helped make Sunriver the 2-1 second choice were second guessing themselves as soon as the gates opened and the son of Saint Ballado sprung to the lead, and especially after the first quarter of 25.92 seconds. From there, he and Garrett Gomez reeled off fractions of 24.28, 24.45, 24.62, and sealed the deal with a quick 23.66 around the final turn, before cruising home in 24.10, final time of 2:27.07. Champs Élysées was shuffled back before finding a seam and finishing well for second.

Pletcher didn't fare as well in the Native Diver with Ravel, made the 6-5 favorite despite being the only three-year old in the race. He saved ground from the rail post, but never looked comfortable when trapped down on the inside on the backstretch. When it looked like he finally had some room to get out approaching the turn, Michael Baze, on Heatseeker, kept him boxed in before circling five wide around horses and going on to the upset win at 30-1. It's his second victory in three starts since moving to Jerry Hollendorfer from the Frankel barn. I posted about him in July after his 5th in the San Diego Handicap, noting his tendency to lose focus in the stretch, and writing: "I'm going to continue to follow Heatseeker. He's lightly raced and only four, and there seems to be a lot of talent there if Frankel can straighten him out." But I lost my own focus and the son of Giant's Causeway is now a graded stakes winner at a huge mutuel. (It might help if I was getting those damn stable alerts, arghh!!) "We've been working and working with him and he did really well," Hollendorfer said. [Bloodhorse]

- You may recall that Sunriver missed by a head to Doctor Dino in the Man O'War before a disappointing try in the Canadian International. Doctor Dino had a good day too, winning the Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Vase at Sha Tin. Dylan Thomas was well back in 7th in his final start, and check out these post-race comments by Aidan O'Brien.

The JRA was unhappy with the results of a routine test for Equine Viral Arteritis and O'Brien explained: "He got caught in quarantine in Japan for a long time.

"He looked a horse ready to go into training than go out of training. Being realistic and honest, he was way overweight.

"We couldn't do anything about it, we put as much work into him as we could and the lads did a good job keeping him sound and right. We were delighted to be invited here (Sha Tin).

"It's important that he's safe. It didn't really matter the race we've had." [BBC Sport]

I'm sure that those who bet on Dylan Thomas would have liked to have heard his trainer's thoughts about the horse being overweight before the race. With all the talk we've heard about how much integrity there is in Hong Kong, with no drugs and the bettors' interests always at heart, one certainly can't say the latter was served in this case!

Ramonti won the Hong Kong Cup for Godolphin.

Franchise Fees Dispute Old News

A State Comptroller report "determined that the franchise fees calculated by NYRA ....were understated by a combined total of at least $11.6 million and perhaps as much as $15.3 million."

You may have read all the stories today with the screaming headlines about the latest revelation. Audit: NYRA shortchanged taxpayers, said the Daily News. The Albany Times-Union dusted off and trotted out Jeff Perlee to call NYRA "chronically dysfunctional" (which makes for an apt description of his own Empire Racing). The NY Post, in revealing the imminent release of the report the other day, labeled it a "bombshell."

However, like a lot of negative headlines we've read about NYRA over the last few years, it's not really news. In fact, the italicized excerpt at the top of this post is from a report released in 2002 by then Comptroller Alan Hevesi, and the shortfalls noted were from 2000 and 2001. NYRA and the state have long disagreed on how the franchise fees are to be calculated, so the fact that the state has additional claims since Hevesi's report is hardly a surprise.

There was apparently a meeting amongst the staffs of Spitzer, Bruno, and Silver on Thursday night to attempt to resolve the franchise. But talk about lack of transparency:

...spokespersons for the governor and Rep. Sheldon Silver, the speaker of the Assembly, would neither confirm nor deny that the meeting took place. [DRF]

Meanwhile, the upstate Ithaca Journal reports that NYRA is not the only issue of importance to the state's racetracks. Still pending is a bill, passed earlier this year by the Senate, that would increase racetracks' share of VLT revenue. Once again, Jeff Gural is threatening to close his Tioga Downs and Vernon Downs harness tracks should the bill not be approved by the Assembly and signed into law. He claims the tracks are losing $1 million a month. “The economics just don't work."

With VLT revenues at the state's racinos disappointing almost across the board, the tracks that host them are suffering.

The owners of Monticello Raceway in the Catskills, meanwhile, are contemplating layoffs and going to a seasonal schedule.
.....
Even Yonkers Raceway, the state's largest video-lottery-terminal parlor, has failed to meet expectations, despite its proximity to New York City, analysts said.

“In some areas, especially Yonkers, the win per-day per-machine is much lower than anyone could have anticipated,” said Bennett Liebman, head of the Racing and Wagering Law Program at Albany Law School. “It's just a major disappointment.”
.....
Since April, the revenue per machine per day in New York has averaged $168 a day, according to the state Lottery. Saratoga has averaged $234 a day per machine since April, while Finger Lakes, the state's only privately owned thoroughbred track, is at $224; Yonkers is at $209. Trailing the pack is Monticello at $121.

Track officials said it is difficult to compete with other states such as Pennsylvania, which let tracks keep a larger percentage of revenue and thus can woo gamblers with more amenities and giveaways.

The average in other states is said to be around $250. The Assembly's racing committee chairman Gary Pretlow is said in the article to favor the new formula; earlier this year, he had expressed skepticism.

Saturday Morning Notes - Dec 8

- In the 9th at the Big A today, Arrrr makes his third start, for trainer Mike Miceli. In his debut, at six furlongs, Arrrr was wide throughout on the sweeping Belmont turn, and finished well, with interest, for 4th. That race came back pretty strongly, producing two winners, a second, and two thirds in subsequent starts. Miceli then added blinkers, and the colt showed early speed, vying for the lead on the rail in the mud before fading badly at a mile; that race produced the subsequent runaway winner Pennington. Now he cuts back to a sprint, and comes off a very sharp half mile work last week. The barn is looking for its first win on the NYRA circuit since Saratoga, but he looks worth a shot at his 8-1 morning line.

- Lovely Isle, who won here on Thursday by 16 lengths for Contessa, has been purchased privately by Bobby Frankel for owner Mike Bello, for whom he trained Megahertz.

"She ran fast," Frankel said from California. "Go to a yearling sale and try to buy one. Here's one that ran already."

Frankel has had success buying off Contessa in the past. In 2000, he purchased Peace Rules from Contessa and that horse went on to win multiple Grade 1 races and bank more than $3 million for Frankel and Ed Gann. [Daily Racing Form]

The purchase price was not disclosed, but I presume it was somewhat more than the 20K she was purchased for at auction this year, and the 50K she could have been bought for when she debuted in a maiden claimer in October; the filly was a 13-1 put-over that day. Nice. On Thursday, she was even money, and drew away under wraps, a handy winner, according to the chart, earning a preliminary Beyer of 101 in the process (final time of 1:09.65)' Not tons of pedigree here - she's by Double Honor, a Gone West stallion standing in Florida for $3500, out of a mare by Island Whirl. But she's fast, at least thus far.

Contessa also sold National Pride, a debut winner at the Big A on November 17, to Godolphin. Mettee said National Pride would most likely begin a 30-day quarantine at Payson on Dec. 16 and ship to Dubai in mid-January. Which means we'll probably never see him again.

Discreet Picks

- DiscreetPicks.com is a subscriber-only selection site. OK, a paid tout site if you wanna put it that way. I wouldn't generally tout a tout site here. But the proprietor, who goes by the name of DiscreetCat, is a friend and a longtime LATG reader and commenter, under another name, who wishes to remain otherwise anonymous. And besides that, he's really good, as he's shown on the LVASports.com forum, generating a 40%+ flat-bet profit over a year of posting picks, mostly for the SoCal tracks. He should be well-familiar to readers of this site, and he's been conspicuous by his absence over the last few months as he's been working to get his site up and running.

So he sent me a complimentary login just the other day, and I went on and read this selection for Thursday's 7th race:

#4 Canteen (20/1 ml)

I'm not a big fan of this horse because he's always been an under-achiever, but he's clearly a leading contender here and that morning line is a joke. He's run very well in sprints throughout his career, most notably on this very same turf course vs. the flat-out monster Crossing the Line and the excellent turf-sprinter Fete. He also turned in an outstanding second behind the downhill specialist Soul City Slew in a race that just missed setting the course record. Should run another good one here, and at the price he's a definite overlay.

Canteen won by two and paid $55.40! And the Cat also had 6th race winner Seminole Native ($5.60), giving him two-of-three for the day. Nice. So, I suggested that a free trial period for LATG readers might be a good idea, and the Cat agreed. So please drop me an email, and I'll shoot back a login good for two free weeks, how about that?

What I particularly like about the Cat's picks is the simplicity of them, in line with the idea of trying to stick with the basics that I've discussed here recently. This was just basic handicapping, nothing fancy at all. I also like the fact that he doesn't feel the need to blab on and make specific cases against the horses he doesn't like. I always feel the need to do that, and in doing so, I make myself vulnerable to further humiliation when the horses I make a point of opposing go on to win, as Sinners n Saints did yesterday (though my selection scratched).

I've been trying to find a night to head out to the Meadowlands for some harness action. Besides the fact I haven't done so in a while and just miss it, I find that handicapping the trotters can be extremely helpful during these times of struggle. It forces me to focus on those basics that I tend to get away from - class, pace analysis, and form - simply because there ain't nothing else to go on, and has proven to be successfully therapeutic for me in the past. So I'll be doing that one night soon (probably without the Head Chef, who doesn't care for the sport largely because of the way the horses are whipped) and I'm going to leave the Penn National and Charles Town pp's at home.

- TVG's parent company, Gemstar-TV Guide International Inc, is being sold for $2.8 billion in cash and stock. The buyer, Macrovision, develops technology to prevent unauthorized copying and viewing of video, music and other content. [AP]

Macrovision wants to allow consumers to call up information about TV shows, view personal photos or access music libraries on a variety of electronic devices through a combination of its security software and GemStar-TV Guide's programming data.

TVG is clearly a business that is not core to Macrovision nor to their stated vision for their new acquisition. Whatsmore, Bloomberg reports that the buyer is spending more than double Macrovision's market value.

"Macrovision wasn't on the short list," said Mark Argento, an analyst at Minneapolis-based Craig-Hallum Capital Group. Gemstar stockholders were hoping for an all-cash deal, and Macrovision ``does not have the liquidity of a larger acquirer."

So, it would seem logical that Macrovision may very well want to shed TVG. Of course, HRTV's owner Magna Entertainment is not exactly in a buying mode at this time (Churchill owns a 50% share however). However, with both networks now in a possible, if not likely position to be sold, perhaps it's time for a look at Ron Geary's idea of a Centralized Betting Exchange, which he discussed at the University of Arizona symposium the other day.

- If you haven't seen it, the race-fixing trial of Kieren Fallon has come to an abrupt end, with the judge directing the jury to acquit all of the defendants. Fallon was immediately cleared to resume riding in Great Britain.

His employers at the Coolmore Stud in Ireland said they were delighted with the outcome, but added: "We find it extremely sad that he was denied the right to display his skills and earn a living on the racecourses of Britain while this case was pending.

"A jockey's riding career is a short one and Kieren was cruelly disadvantaged at the peak of his career. Kieren has been nothing less than superb in his riding of our horses - his record is there for all to see. [BBC Sport]

More reaction to this development as they come in over the weekend.

Making Stuff Up

- My favorite stallion ad of the week is for Pavarotti.

"If you see me once, you cannot confuse me with another," - Luciano Pavarotti

Pavarotti, the man, has been gone for just three months, and already his name is being invoked in a crass commercial appeal. I wonder what his estate would think of that. You probably couldn't confuse the opera singer with anyone else - he was a strange looking dude. But you could certainly confuse Pavarotti the horse with any number of multi-million yearlings who didn't hold up its end of the bargain on the track. Pavarotti went to Smith/Tabor & Co. for $2.5 million at Keeneland in 2005, but didn't make it to the track until early this year. The son of AP Indy ran poorly only once, in the slop at Churchill. He won the Round Table at Arlington, his first and only stakes try, and it was a game effort in which he battled back after getting headed by Time Squared in the stretch. That was his last race.

So he showed some potential to be sure, but even at a modest $6500 fee, at Hartley DeRenzo in Ocala, it was apparently determined that he'd be a better bet to earn more on the farm than he would have on the track. If he's bred to, say, 75 mares, that would gross nearly a half million dollars. So here's a three-year old being retired despite not having to prove much at all.

Stakes winner and NTR at Arlington - the ad reads. That's a bit deceptive to say the least, as his track record in the Round Table was merely the fastest time to be run on the Polytrack that was installed just this year. But the funniest part of the story can be seen on the colt's Stallion Register page.

Triple Digit Beyers of
105, 107 & 108

That's pretty impressive. The only problem is that it's not true. I'm looking at his past performances, and his highest Beyer was the 97 he earned in the Round Table! Besides that, he never ran faster than an 87. We see a lot of exaggerations on the stallion pages, but this is just making stuff up, right out of the Rudy Giuliani playbook. Next thing you know they'll say that he spent more time at Ground Zero than most of the rescue workers did. Or that he sang as Radames in Aida and performed as one of The Three Tenors.

I imagine it's some kind of innocent typo....if you go to the Hartley DeRenzo site, it says that he earned "Triple Digit figures," so perhaps they're really BRIS figures. But with all due respect to those numbers, which I know some players do prefer, I think that if one refers to 'figures' these days, the assumption is that they're the Beyers unless otherwise specified.

Ravel is another Smith/Tabor purchase, he for a mere $950,000, and unlike Pavarotti, he is forging on despite already having a graded stakes win - this year's Sham Stakes - to his credit. In fact, he's the only North American graded winner this year for Fusaichi Pegasus, standing at a bargain basement $45,000 at Coolmore in 2008. Besides this colt's potential, which he displayed in his five-length comeback win at Keeneland in October, his third win in four career starts, the connections are likely hoping that he can give a boost to his fading stallion (the subject of a two-page spread ad in Bloodhorse this week).

Ravel is entered in the Native Diver at Hollywood on Saturday. He's the only three-year old in a field which includes some sharp older horses in Bold Chieftain, Racketeer, and Isipingo, as well as Buzzards Bay, looking to bounce back after a disappointing run over the Tapeta surface at Golden Gate. Trainer Todd Pletcher is looking for big things for the horse in 2008.

"We felt like he was one of the best 3-year-olds in the country....And based on everything we've seen from him in the mornings and in his races, we think he's potentially one of the leaders [among older horses for 2008]." [Dallas-Ft Worth Star Telegram]

News and Notes - Dec 6

- I found an interesting document while cruising around the message board on the Yahoo Finance page for Magna Entertainment, which hit a new low of $1.12 on Wednesday. This PDF page shows the detailed revenue information for each of Florida's pari-mutuel racino facilities, and at first glance, you may think 'Hey, what a turnaround for Gulfstream!" Indeed, their win per machine per day figure went from $81 in October to $153 in November, to $257 for the first two days of December.

However, a closer look reveals that the track has already put into place its plans to drastically reduce the number of machines, from over 1200 during the summer, to the present total of 516. Add in the fact that Dec 1-2 was a weekend (and a poster on the Yahoo board noted that "they were going to give away Louis Vuitton handbags packed with wagering tickets every 15 minutes one of those days), and that would explain those numbers, which still produced net revenue a third of that of Pompano Park. What seems so perplexing to me is how much better the two other racinos have been doing; especially Pompano, averaging $213 despite having the maximum allowable 1,500 machines. Mardi Gras, the former Hollywood Dog Track, averages $168 per machine, and is just as close to the Hard Rock Cafe as Gulfstream. The differences are striking, and, not having been there, I can't say exactly why. Could the facility at Gulfstream be that much more undesirable than the others? I'd think it's much harder to screw up a slots parlor than Magna successfully did to the racetrack itself!

- Neil Getnick has been subpoenaed to testify before the State Commission of Investigation regarding the no-bid contract it received from NYRA to be its integrity monitor, as well as “other matters related thereto or arising therefrom.” [NY Times]

The commission received an anonymous letter claiming Getnick conspired with Gov. Eliot Spitzer's office to subvert the process for awarding the racing franchise for operations at Saratoga, Aqueduct and Belmont Park thoroughbred tracks and steer it to NYRA and Excelsior Racing Associates. [Albany Times Union]

Er, gee, can we take a logical guess who Anonymous is? Not surprisingly, the committee consists largely of Republicans appointed by Pataki and Joe Bruno. The state GOP still wields an awful lot of power for a party whose slim two seat margin in the state Senate is their last vestige of power in the state. In September, Empire claimed that the presence of one former Getnick employee on a team of over 30 investigators for Thacher Associates rendered the latter's damning report on Empire's ethics as a conflict.....one of the more absurd accusations to come from that disintegrated and disgraced consortium. (And, by the way, we still have not heard one substantive rebuttal to any of the charges in the Thacher report.) So I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if that alleged conflict is on the committee's agenda.

Bruno has a petition posted on his website which urges the Governor and Sheldon Silver to get serious about negotiating a franchise settlement. "Governor Spitzer chose to ignore previous recommendations, abruptly restarting the selection process and then creating a plan that doesn’t work." I'm wondering which "previous recommendation" Bruno is talking about. The only one I know of was the Ad Hoc Committee's endorsement of Excelsior, and if I recall correctly, the Senator was as cool to that as anyone.

But in fairness, Bruno certainly is not wrong when he criticizes Spitzer and Silver for their inaction. The Governor has never seemed genuinely interested - surprising considering that his 2008 budget includes VLT revenue that he now won't be getting - and Silver hasn't done diddly; in fact, he's said straight up that it's not a top legislative priority. Indeed, it's interesting that Bruno told Newsday the other day: "I believe we can get together with the governor ... in a plan to move forward. The stumbling block seems to be the Assembly." But for Bruno to now say that "there is no issue more important at this time than the awarding of the state's horse racing franchise," a statement that reasonable people could certainly disagree with, is nothing but posturing to his constituency. Bruno is just as responsible for the current gridlock. In fact, it is he who has taken the minority position in an attempt to gain more control over the industry, and it's the Senate's continuing squawking over and investigating the Choppergate affair that is considered to be most responsible for the lack of legislative action over the last few months.

Hunch Bets for Thursday, Dec 6

Plunge Away - 1st at Charles Town
R U Sure - 4th at Penn National
Plum Sneaky - 6th at Calder
Goodbye Goodbye 10th at Charles Town
Distressed Debt - 3rd at Sam Houston
Outta Tune - 9th at Turfway Park