Grand Slam

- Four winners for Pletcher at Keeneland on Saturday. In the third, Royal Card tossed John Velazquez in the post parade and galloped away. An outrider nabbed the two-year old filly, making her racing debut, along the outer rail about a furlong later according to the crew on TVG, and later confirmed by the chart caller...unless of course he just got that information from TVG. Good job by the network here, finding a replay angle showing Johnny V bailing out (I guess they must still have some of those 24 cameras hanging around), and Jill Byrne interviewing an unperturbed Toddster, his manners, suit, and hair all unruffled by the incident. All agreed that the filly would be fine to start; and the bettors were similarly undaunted, sending her off as the 2-1 second choice.

Royal Card won despite the pre-race adventure and a wide trip. She is, as far as I can tell, the first winner for the rookie sire Chapel Royal, a son of Montbrook standing for Coolmore for $10K a pop. Chapel Royal was a precocious sort himself, taking the early season Flash Stakes at Belmont, as well as the Sanford on a muddy track at Saratoga. He ran third in the Juvenile, and returned to run out of the money in two starts at three. His two-year olds have been pretty well received this year, bringing an average of almost $122,000, well above his fee.

As noted on the Coolmore website, this stallion has a most unusual pedigree by today's commercial standards:

Chapel Royal is from the BUCKPASSER sire line and his dam is by a son of DAMASCUS. He has a valuable pedigree in that it is free of NORTHERN DANCER, RAISE A NATIVE, MR. PROSPECTOR, HAIL TO REASON, TURN-TO, IN REALITY, RIBOT, BOLD RULER and SEATTLE SLEW. In other words, he is an outcross for most of the fashionable sire lines in America today.

In the 4th, Pletcher's Awesome Ashley was all out late trying to catch favored Drop A Line. The tight finish made for one of those very rare races when the slow-motion replays did not provide a definitive answer as to who had won. After having exhausted all of their replay angles, TVG simply cut to a shot of the tote board. And as the PHOTO sign blinked off and we stared at the still-blank board for the imminent result, it brought back a lot of memories. Back when there were no replays until after the race was official, we all spent a lot of agonizing minutes staring at the infield tote, trying to will the correct number or numbers to be listed on top. In this case, it was a dead heat, but good enough for Pletcher's second winner of the day.

In the 5th, Jumpin Charlie shipped in for the stable from Santa Anita, and I searched for a horse to bet against him as the 7-5 favorite; fortunately, I ended up passing, as he wore down Ndongo to get up late.

Finally, in the Lexington, Behindatthebar became the third Pletcher horse to crack the Derby top 20 in graded earnings. The Toddster said afterwards however that this son of Forest Wildcat was doubtful for the big race. "I don't think it's a distance issue....It's a question of whether he's a dirt horse or synthetic horse." [Associated Press] I find that to be kind of a weird statement for him to make. If the big question concerns the question of dirt vs synthetics, then Pletcher wouldn't be entering Cowboy Cal and, arguably, Monba in the Derby either.

Behindatthebar benefited from a lightning early pace set by Samba Rooster - 22.78 and 45.21, wow. However, that colt held on for second at 17-1, and Riley Tucker maintained his third position throughout the race. I'm not sure if the rest of the field, including favored Atoned, the disappointing Tomcito, and Salute the Sarge, were just spinning their wheels, or if the result was a confirmation of a main track that seems to be playing kinder to speed.

- During the post parade on TVG for the 7th race, Todd Schrrmmppff noted that trainer Tom Amoss, his occasional colleague on The Works, had been very quiet during the last few days about Ride Em Cowgirl, making her first start since October. He noted that Amoss' horses usually run well when he doesn't hear from him. Sounded like inside information, and as it turned out, I should have gone to the bank with it. Ride Em Cowgirl looked like a winner most every step of the way and paid $16. So keep that in mind the next time you hear the boys on TVG talk about Amoss being tight-lipped.

For Sale

- I was at Aqueduct for a brief appearance late Friday afternoon, and there was this guy down on the first floor offering his Pick Six ticket for sale before the ninth and final race. He claimed to have a live ticket to the eight horse, the 9-5 morning line favorite, around 3-1 on the board at the time. He was asking $600, and then the price seemed to go up to $800. It was paying around $3800, and it also had an inherent value, since it was guaranteed to pay off on five of six. To be honest, the guy seemed like a bit of a nut, so whether he was on the up and up I can't say for sure. But I didn't really blame him for looking to sell. The race was an impossible affair; a maiden claimer on the grass, and only a single turf race to be found in the entire past performances. The Kentucky Derby isn't the only race that we need to do a lot of guessing about.

The eight horse, Determined Loyalty, was slammed down to 8-5, just an awful betting move on a Bruce Levine horse who'd been burning money, and whose superior Beyers were meaningless on the grass.

Nobody took him up on his offer. One guy looked like he might be considering it, and he might have been regretting not doing so when Determined Loyalty took command turning for home. He led to the eighth pole, but got passed by 21-1 Battonage, Samyn on the green! The Pick Six went unhit, resulting in a carryover for Saturday, and the conso ticket was worth $388.

I liked Carriage Trail, the 9-1 winner of the G3 Doubledogdare at Keeneland. I really did, but I kinda spaced and lost track of the time, involved in races all over North America as I was. So I was late to the betting machine and actually got shut out. But when 10-1 Say You Will got up for second, I wasn't feeling so bad, as I didn't use him in the second spot on my 50-cent trifecta tickets. So I felt stupid and happy at the same time. Panty Raid was just awful at even money; finished on the turn, she backed up to last. I hope she's OK. They can't use the Polytrack excuse for a filly who won the Spinster on the track last year.

- You may have noticed that Prado won the first three races on Friday, after I wrote that he was three for 39; call me a slump buster. Any other jockeys need a boost?

NYCOTB Fix Easy - But Only For Now

- As you may have read by now, Governor Paterson will meet with Senator Bruno and Speaker Sheldon Silver in an attempt to head off the threatened closure of New York City OTB on June 16 which would cost around 1,500 people their jobs.

Gov. Paterson - uttering the words OTB officials have been waiting years to hear - said it would make sense to restructure the state-mandated revenue-sharing formula that has brought OTB to the brink of bankruptcy.
....
Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver told The Post, "We are looking at all the places that OTB spends its money and see where we can reduce some of the expenditures to make them profitable."[NY Post]

Whew! That was close! I mean, did anyone think that the state would let the operation shut down over a relative pittance of money, considering the $17 million in state taxes and regulatory fees, the latter in the form of payments to the State Racing and Wagering Board that didn't exist in 2000 but which grew to excess of $5 million in 2006, that it generated in 2007? Or the $100 million it contributes annually to tracks and purses? And run the risk of taking the political blame for layoffs during the present difficult economy?

Not a part of the upcoming discussions on saving NYCOTB will be Patrick Foye, who resigned last month as the head of the Empire State Development Corporation. When I spoke to NYRA President/CEO Charles Hayward a few weeks ago, he told me that the most disappointing consequence to him of the resignation of Governor Spitzer was Foye's resulting departure. "He really drilled down on the matter and understood the issues." In particular, he realized that OTB needs relatively little cash, and that the situation is not as dire as Mayor Bloomberg has portrayed. In a letter to the Mayor's office and NYC-OTB earlier this year, Foye wrote: "..NYCOTB's own cash projections indicate that the entity will be cash flow positive each month of this current fiscal year ($7.6 million this month alone) through and including May 2008 and will be short by only approximately $1.1 million in cash in June 2008. NYCOTB projects that July and August 2008 will be cash positive months and then NYCOTB will require approximately $2.5 million in September 2008, the last month for which cash flow projections have been furnished."

Perhaps Bruno had a look at this, because he told Paul Post, reporting for the Thoroughbred Times, Bruno proposed that OTB defer its monthly $1-million payments to the state for April and May, enabling it to keep operating into summer when revenues are expected to increase.

So it sounds as if all three men in the room are on board. This is one issue on which they can satisfy Bloomberg without much in the way of financial or political pain.

Of course, the fact that the longer term future of OTB and the viability of the current business model in the state was not addressed even in the most basic fashion, not to mention any talk of consolidation, during the franchise debate is the most regrettable aspect of the whole regrettable process. In 2006, the split in total handle wagered at OTB versus on track was 80/20. And as you know, the tracks retain a far lower percentage of the wagers made at OTB; in the case of NYRA, it keeps approximately 9.9% of wagers placed on track wagers or through its internet wagering system, vs 2.69% of downstate OTB's, and less than 1.5% on bets placed upstate.

Paterson spoke of a long-term plan to make OTB "more profitable and productive," and Bruno went further, saying: “The plan that we adopt should include an alignment of the economic interests of the tracks and the OTBs in order to succeed.” But Charles Hayward for one was doubtful that the basic competitive business structure is going to change. "I don't see the statutory rates being adjusted," he said. Instead, NYRA is proposing a more modest and politically realistic consolidation in an attempt to improve efficiency, increase its profitability, and to present a united front by which to better market the sport in New York to the public. Specifically, NYRA proposes a consolidated tote system, a single state-wide account wagering system, a statewide TV network (Capitol OTB pays $600,000 a year to get on Time Warner Cable, while the downstate corporations and NYRA get free carriage), and a statewide marketing campaign. In addition, NYRA would guarantee the current amounts paid to local governments, and establish metrics by which each regional corporation could earn additional payments.

There's one particularly jarring set of numbers that I saw in a report released by State Senator William Larkin's Committee on Racing, Gaming, and Wagering which I think demonstrates the need for the track operator and OTB to at least get on the same page if nothing else. From 1990 through 2006, the total overall handle for all the OTB's was relatively stable - $1.923 billion in 1990 to $2.057 billion in 2006. However, comparing the monies wagered on New York tracks as opposed to out-of-state simulcasts, the total wagered on New York tracks declined over that time period from $1.86 billion, or 96.7% of the total handle, to $756 million, less than 37% of overall wagering. Conversely, money bet on simulcasts now makes up 63.2% of the total; it has climbed every year. OTB is basically becoming a bookie joint for races run in other states. Besides the fact that NYRA and the horsemen each get lower percentages of the handle from the downstate OTB's (NYRA actually gets slightly more from upstate, but that handle is only around one sixth of the state total), it's just counterintuitive to the idea of promoting the industry and marketing the sport in the state. OTB can, and probably will, continue to compete with NYRA for handle, and NYRA feels it can be profitable even in that environment. But I would think that everyone benefits from a renaissance of interest in the local sport.

Of course, as with everything in New York, there's a catch, according to Hayward. "There's a clear incentive for them to take out of state tracks because they're paying less money." That sounds like something that could be worked out. But OTB has expressed no interest in change other than a reduction in their payments.

So it seems as if, despite the potentially transformative events of the past few years, we're only maybe just a little closer to addressing the state of OTB. And who knows if we'd be hearing anything about it at all had Bloomberg not thrown his little tantrum and threatened to turn off the cash flow to Albany.

Friday Morning Notes - April 18

- I guess that Edgar Prado doesn't like the Polytrack either; he's three for 38 thus far at the Keeneland meet.

- Jockey valets at Aqueduct are not happy with an apparent rate cut. In the past, they've received 5% of their rider's earnings from purses, but that has now changed.

The valets obtained a Jockeys' Guild letter that states that a jockey may pay 2.5% of the rider's earnings from purses and that this fee would be capped at the winning jockey's share of a $250,000 gross purse.
....
"These are just guidelines," said Terry Meyocks, the national manager for the Jockeys' Guild. "A jockey and his valet should come to their own agreement." [NY Daily News]

The valets are feeling the pinch now that the top riders are returning from their winter hiatuses. Eibar Coa, for one, seems to have taken a hard line.

"Now I pay my valet an extra two points in tips in cash," the jockey said. "If you really add it up it comes out the same. The only difference is now you work for it rather than automatically get it."
.....
"We're (the jockeys) going to stick together....They got me in a corner by myself," he said of the valets. " ... They're acting like a child."

NY jockeys will see their mount fees increase when Belmont opens on April 30.

- Following the announcement of the handle decline at Keeneland, Laurel Park has announced a similar 17% downturn in all-sources handle. Maryland Jockey Club Alan Dragone also cited the economy as a "prominent factor."

- Trainer Doug O'Neill is confident about the prospects of Lava Man. The now seven-year old son of Slew City Slew is prepping for the Khaled Stakes, on the turf, on April 27.

"He's full of energy. I think his coat and weight look excellent. He sure seems like he's the same Lava Man that we've been around that won the three Gold Cups."
.....
"We want to bring him back in a spot where he doesn't have to go :22 flat and :45 flat," O'Neill said. "Those turf races tend to be a little more kind." [San Bernardino Sun]

Bettors Can't Get Handle on Keeneland

- Keeneland spokesman Jim Williams admitted to "anecdotal tales" of discontent amongst bettors about Polytrack. But he downplayed that as a factor in the 17% decline in handle from last year thus far at the spring meeting. Instead, he emphasized that last spring's record breaking figures were a hard act to follow, and pointed to the weak economy. Steve Crist, writing in the subscription DRF Plus section of the Form, responds by pointing out that Oaklawn was slightly up, and that parimutuel handle historically has been recession-proof, especially at short boutique meetings like Keeneland's.

If the economy is a factor (and I don't think we can say for sure at this time that it's not), I think that would be reflected mostly in the on-track numbers, which indeed was down around 12%. I'm not going to argue with those who attribute the decline in the much-larger off-track sources to hesitation over Polytrack, especially when I read some of those anecdotal tales, such as those on the PaceAdvantage.com forum.

But I do find the notion rather ironic considering that the "old" Keeneland was a monotonous parade of front runners, and the Polytrack races have been wide-open affairs in which horses can, and do, win from anywhere on the track. Well, except maybe, the lead! So I guess a lot of horseplayers prefer predictable over uncertain, which certainly makes sense, especially if you're doing it for a living. I'm not; just having fun and trying to get lucky once or twice in a while. I actually used to avoid the track when it was a paved highway, but I love the racing there now. I wouldn't say that if I thought it was as much of a crapshoot as some are making it out to be. Sure, the Blue Grass was ponderous, but that's just one race, and one in which everything gets magnified.

I do have a little experience with this, having handicapped nearly every day of the spring card last year, and I certainly found the races to be difficult and challenging, but not uniformly inexplicable by any means. The prices are right, and you only have to hit one nice one to get out for the short meet. So, suit yourself, but I'm psyched for the second half of the meeting, and will certainly play my extremely small part in trying to improve that handle.

- Dick Powell points out in his Handicapping Insights column on BRIS that Ramon Dominguez taking the mount on Monba may mean that Eight Belles, who the jockey rode her last two starts, won't go against the boys.

Either Dominguez and his agent, Steve Rushing, feel that Monba is better than Eight Belles or they have doubts that she'll go in the Derby and were afraid that they would be left without a mount. [BRIS]

Thursday Night Notes - April 17

- There's an odd story on the Form's website informing us that NYRA has barred trainer Greg Matties from the grounds.

"There were patterns of wagering activity at account wagering sites that we weren't happy about," NYRA's president, Charles Hayward, said. "We have reason to believe the accounts were in family-member names. We're not saying there was any race-fixing or anything like that going on."

Hayward said NYRA was made aware of these irregular betting patterns by the Thoroughbred Racing Protective Bureau.

Several members of the Matties family have competed in handicapping tournaments around the country. Paul and Duke Matties, who are brothers of Gregg, finished 36th and 56th in the Daily Racing Form/National Thoroughbred Racing Association Handicapping tournament in Las Vegas in January. [Daily Racing Form]

If suspected race-fixing isn't the problem, I'm not sure what it could be; unless one is using that term narrowly, not intending to apply it to something like, say, having information that a particular horse will be running below expectations. I'll be looking out for further developments on this, but considering that the TRPB is involved, we may never learn anything specific.

- Ramon Dominguez will ride Monba, and Garrett Gomez, who, along with his agent Ron Anderson, chose Court Vision in the Wood over Colonel John in the SA Derby, will remain on Mott's colt in the Derby. He worked a bullet (of 25) 46.1 at Churchill on Wednesday. Mott is the leading trainer at Keeneland, winning his 7th in the finale on Thursday with Hyrule, a heretofore money burning three-year old son of Smart Strike.

Bridge to Nowhere

- I got a note from reader Mr. Ed, who was at the Big A on Wednesday to celebrate the end of the tax season. As you may know, there were two highly publicized Pick Six carryovers on the day, one at Aqueduct and the other at Keeneland. The reader plunged into both, but at the end of the long day, he was alive only for some consolation payoffs at Keeneland. Nonetheless, he naturally had an interest in the 9th and final race there, as did anyone else with a wagering interest.

Mr. Ed writes that there were announcements throughout the day that there would be no "bridge simulcasting." That's a somewhat outdated term used to describe the late afternoon out-of-town races that span the time between the end of the NYRA card and that evening's harness races. I don't really know why the term would ever be used on track, where the archaic state law still prohibits simulcasting at NYRA tracks after 7:30 PM. There, it's just a bridge to nowhere. In any event, "bridge simulcasts" generally refer to the west coast tracks or those running twilight cards specifically to fill the gap, and never to the final races of a track like Keeneland finishing up its card.

Anyway, the Aqueduct card had concluded just around ten minutes prior, and there's Mr. Ed waiting for the Keeneland race. They're loading into the gate...they're off, and.....the TV's suddenly cut off from the race and switch to a shot of the infield flag! "You should have seen the masses (well maybe not masses) running full speed to the little kiosk where you can control the channels, as one sole customer actually knew how to find TVG and switched it on just in time for the final 1/8th." Indeed, we definitely should have seen that scene!!

Unfortunately, the story doesn't have a happier ending, as the reader lost out on the conso payoff. He also adds that the Pick Six payoffs were never posted by Keeneland (and Crist notes on his blog that they were unavailable on the NYRA website as well). All in all, not a great way for either track to handle a wager which, as the reader notes, was prominently promoted in the front page headline of the Racing Form. In the case of Keeneland, it was likely an unfortunate glitch. But at Aqueduct, it sounds like it was extreme and utter carelessness, and an utter disregard for the on track bettors. They were obviously trying to close the track, but it surely wouldn't have killed anyone to leave the TV's on for another minute and 28 seconds! I mean, c'mon! Mr. Ed wrote that he'll "think long and hard about going back," and this guy has been going there as long as I have! And that's a pretty long time.

"What a way to run an industry," he concludes. Indeed.

- After his disappointing Florida Derby try, Nistle's Crunch successfully returned to the allowance ranks, on the grass, in Keeneland's 6th. He got heavily bet; 4-1 third choice in the morning line, he was the 8-5 chalk. Great ride by Albarado, who saved ground all the way until finding a convenient seam after turning for home. The chart comment says he drew clear under mild handling, but I think that's overstating the amount of effort expended by the jockey. He had a little trouble keeping the horse straight as he drifted in a couple of lanes, but it seemed otherwise an extremely easy win. Nistle's Crunch is by the Storm Cat sire Van Nistelrooy, out of a mare by Island Whirl, who I had in the 1982 Woodward at Belmont; Angel Cordero Jr. riding for Lukas. I think he was something like 6-1, although I could be mixing that up with a number of other races after all that time.

Alwajeeha won the G3 Appalachian for McLaughlin and Shadwell, and I'm pretty sure I had her when she ran second in her last. She took off like a rocket when prompted by Johnny V while four wide on the turn, and just edged ahead in an exciting three horse finish.

- Lemme ask you something.....you really don't like hockey?? Well, I know at least a few of you do. But man, team sports just doesn't get any better than these tight Stanley Cup playoff contests. The Rangers played their best game of the series, but still needed a dramatic late goal to overcome a game Devils squad, their magnificent, if occasionally obnoxious, goaltender, and two referees seemingly bent on seeing the series tied up (think I'm being a homer? Ask Teresa, another objective observer), to take a 3 games to 1 lead in their opening round series. Wow, what a game, and what an gleeful explosion by the tense crowd when Marc Staal blasted the puck by Brodeur for the winner with just 3:17 remaining in regulation time. He's already the 4th rookie to score in the playoffs this year for the Blueshirts, a sign of a promising future no matter what happens this spring. Game 5 is tomorrow night, and Let's Go Rangers!!

- As you may have noticed, the site is presently under construction; thanks for bearing with it. Any comments or suggestions are definitely welcome.

Odds and Ends

- Oh, didn't know he was still on it.

- Edgar Prado's agent explains their decision to ride probable turf horse Adriano over possible turf horse Monba and slow dirt horse Tale of Ekati in the Derby: "We won on Adriano in the Lane's End before we rode the other two. We felt obligated toward Graham." [Daily Racing Form] Trainer Graham Motion took the decision to mean: "he's endorsing the horse."

- Pennsylvania's slots program was supposed to be all about property tax relief for homeowners, and the initial returns are in. (Drum roll please......)

While the size of property tax reductions from slots revenue will vary among 500 Pennsylvania school districts, $169 is the average amount of relief statewide when school property tax bills go out in July, Michael Masch, state budget secretary, said yesterday. In Philadelphia, the slots money will go to lower the city's 4 percent wage tax rather than property taxes. [Pittsburgh Post-Gazette]

$169, eh? Sounds like about enough for a night at the slots....with a little luck that is. The big winners are obviously the companies running the parlors, and the horsemen competing for the big purses. Of course, there are more casinos to come, and revenue is expected to surpass $1 billion as opposed to the $661.4 million available for tax relief this year.

The status of one of the two standalone VLT parlors slated to go up in downtown Philly was argued yesterday in the state Supreme Court. Mayor Michael Nutter revoked the license of the SugarHouse casino, arguing that his predecessor John Street erred in granting a permit for riparian rights, which involve the right to build on submerged land.

Since at least 1978, when a state dam safety law took effect, the state has enjoyed the sole power to grant riparian rights on Pennsylvania waterways, state Senate lawyer Christopher Craig argued Tuesday.

Craig represents Sen. Vincent Fumo and six other lawmakers who have sued city officials over the permit. Fumo is "opposed to the casino at that site, period, because of the community opposition to it," Craig said after the session. [Associated Press]

A lawyer for SugarHouse blasted city lawyers for flip-flopping on the issue once the new administration took office, telling the justices: "Those shifting positions could be either a new low in political maneuvering, or a new high in legal hypocrisy."

Catherine Recker, an attorney for the state House of Representatives, said the city had the right to revoke its license at any time in the interest of "the public good."

But when it comes to Philadelphia politics, casinos, and changing administrations, "the use of the term public good is somewhat ambiguous," Justice Seamus P. McCaffery said. [Philadelphia Inquirer]

Hunch Bets for Wednesday, April 16

Addicted To Wealth 1st at Penn National
Feet Be Fleet 7th at Charles Town
My Friend Told 8th at Evangeline Downs
Lost Trail 1st at Keeneland
Girl Power 7th at Penn National
Misleader 5th at Keeneland
Good Law 5th at Aqueduct
We Will Rock You 10th at Tampa Bay
Eulogize 4th at Aqueduct

Derby By Invitation Only

- If you don't mind a brief commercial announcement, here's a plug for my buddy DiscreetCat, who's been on fire over at Discreet Picks, the link to which is still, I think, somewhere amidst the construction that is going on with the site right now. I know he's had at least four of his last five, not including Gayego, who I know he liked on Saturday. It actually seemed as if a lot of people liked him, and $6.60 wasn't too bad of a price I don't think....if of course you figured he'd run well on dirt. Maybe his winning may make some bettors more comfortable backing Colonel John, and thus depress his odds.

You can't compare the Keeneland Polytrack to the Cushion Tracks in California anyway (even other than the fact that the Polytrack drains properly and isn't scheduled to be replaced). Keeneland's track seems like a freak show to me in comparison to Santa Anita and Hollywood when it comes to how the dirt form translates, and the manner in which the races are run. So I don't think that the way horses translate their dirt form to Keeneland, or vice versa, has anything to do with how they will do so when it comes to Cushion Track. I think it's foolish for Asmussen to come out and say he won't run Pyro in the Breeders Cup. In fact, we don't even know what kind of surface they'll have there.

Anyway, Discreet Cat left this comment:

The current graded-earnings system of selecting the Derby field has simply got to change. Horses who win a few graded sprints as 2yo's (see Kodiak Kowboy and Salute the Sarge) are given preference over horses who have been running well in two-turn races as 3yo's (see El Gato Malo and Yankee Bravo). Even the current Derby sensation Big Brown was on the outside looking in before his win in the Florida Derby. If he had run third (with traffic problems, let's say), he wouldn't be in the race either. Also of concern is fillies who run up graded-stakes earnings in races such as the 4-horse Fantasy Stakes. Nothing against Eight Belles, I'm a big fan of hers, but i don't think racing vs. 3 fillies should punch your ticket to the Derby.

In my opinion, the race should be by invitation-only. Put together a panel of handicappers/analysts (no matter how incompetent) and let the select the 20 horses most deserving of a spot. Surely, there will be whining from the connections who miss the cut, but it beats the hell out of the system we have now.

For one thing, if you think there would be whining with that system, wait until you hear what happens if Eight Belles enters and scratches to run in the Oaks!

I'm totally down with this idea for the reasons DC states; and also for the controversy that is inevitably generated when human judgment becomes involved, and that's always good for some press coverage and publicity. They could have a selection show (on TVG HRTV) like the NCAA tournament with, of course, Todd (i know it's) Schrupp Laffit Pincay Jr. all dressed up in his tuxedo.

Some tweaking might be in order. Perhaps it would be good to have a certain amount of spots guaranteed on merit - dare I suggest a 'win and you're in' for the Derby? And there would have to be minimum prep race requirements to insure that horses actually run in races once they no longer have to compete for earnings.

Since there would be human judgment involved, there will of course be mistakes made, and some horses and owners will be left out unfairly. But that can happen now too, when you have qualifiers like Z Humor, getting picked on around here lately, still living off the fruits of his dead heat win in the rich Delta Jackpot last year. That race is effectively more important the Blue Grass, or the Arkansas Derby, or the Wood. How can that be?

Probably not that much would change. The worthiest contenders would very likely qualify under any system. But it would prevent a scenario like the one with Big Brown described above. Can you imagine how dull this Derby would seem if he wasn't eligible for the race?

Atoned Looks To Atone

- Atoned will run in the Lexington on Saturday, and one can certainly make the case that he bounced in the Illinois Derby...and that's forgetting about any suspected track bias, as well as the pace scenario that played squarely against him. The Tampa Bay Derby, his first race since the Remsen last fall, was an extremely tough race given how wide he was on both turns. The Illinois Derby was "only" three weeks later, less than Pletcher's preferred timing. His running line from the race doesn't look as bad as it may have on the track; basically an even effort against the pace grain, four wide, and he earned the same 93 Beyer that he did at Tampa. And he beat the more highly regarded Denis of Cork. So he looks to me like a big bounce-back candidate come Saturday, should, of course, he handle the Poly in his first try on the surface. Dogwood president Cot Campbell, citing a recent workout, thinks that he will.

“The colt had a terrific work at Keeneland (the morning of April 13) – breezing a half in :47.1 and galloping out five-eighths in :59.2. It’s obvious he has great affinity for the Polytrack surface, which causes us to want to run in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes, a race well worth winning in its own right. It is also a nice steppingstone to the grade I Preakness Stakes (gr. I) on May 17.” [Bloodhorse]

I'm thinking also that a big performance may have the connections of Denis of Cork eyeing that top 20 wistfully, hoping for enough defections to get in.

Tomcito will be using the Lexington in an attempt to make the Derby, and he worked three furlongs out of the gate in :34.60 and galloped out a half-mile in :46.80 at Keeneland on Tuesday.

- A reader questions the pedigree on Smooth Air, and he/she's got a point. He's by Smooth Jazz (Storm Boot), a grandson of Storm Cat, and we know how well that particular sire line has done when it comes to siring Derby winners. Smooth Jazz never won around two turns, getting as far as a one-turn mile at the Big A. Smooth Air is out of a mare by French Deputy (Deputy Minister), who won the one mile Jerome Handicap at Belmont. If you look at some of the descendants on the distaff side, you'll see sprint stakes winners such as Saint Daimon, Penny's Reshoot, and the late Chace City. Please tell me I'm wrong, the reader wrote. I'm looking for reasons to like this horse b/c of his expected price and the nice middle move he made in the GP Derby. Well, his dosage (3.0) and Tomlinson number (310) are acceptable, and if you go out further in his pedigree, you'll find some healthy linebreeding to distance influences Princequillo and Graustark. And he'll be facing others who seem to be pedigree-deficient too. I agree that it's not the kind of breeding that I'd normally look for....but I don't know that that alone is sufficient reason to throw out anyone who's performed well on the track this year.

Tuesday Morning Notes - April 15

- It's amazing to me how much has changed just in the relatively fleeting time I've been writing this blog. I was thinking about Z Fortune, and his excellent second in the Arkansas Derby; and tempering my enthusiasm a bit is the fact that he'll be running on "only" three weeks rest. Considering how wide he was, I imagine that he'll earn low numbers on the sheets, and that the sheet guys won't like the relatively short layoff. I was also looking at Smooth Air on the recommendation of reader and fellow Ranger fan Jeff. I like what I see there on closer examination; he's never run a bad race, comes off a career best effort in the Florida Derby, and has built himself a pretty solid foundation. And, I'm thinking, he'll have five weeks to recover from the Florida Derby, and that's good.

But if this was three years ago, I'd probably be thinking exactly the opposite - that Smooth Air has been off far too long, and that Z Fortune is right on schedule! Didn't take long for that perception to change, at least for me.

- I think that Eight Belles would vie for third choice in the betting if the Derby was run today. And if she was in it, of course. I neglected to mention earlier that the filly will work on Friday, after which a decision will be made. Though I suspect it already has been.

"I know Mr. Porter's leaning to wanting to do that. They'll get to crunching all their numbers in the next couple of days. But the way the races shaped up [Saturday], it looks like he may be leaning that way." [Daily Racing Form]

I'm told that Larry Jones talked Porter out of running in the Arkansas Derby, but I don't believe that the owner, having coming close last year, will be unable to resist taking another shot.

Big Brown clearly is the likely post-time favorite and, though I could be wrong about this, I think that Colonel John looms as the second choice despite his lower figs and the synthetic question. I'd seriously consider betting him if I'm wrong and he's more like 8-1. After that, there should be a third tier amongst Pyro, Gayego, and, I think, Eight Belles. I must say that I'm not really put off by the idea of this filly taking on these boys at that time. She has a lot of things going for her - consistency, class, tactical speed, and some solid foundation with nine career starts. I also think that she answered a big question in the Rebel Fantasy, proving that she could win a contested finish in a race in which she faced adversity.

We also know that she'll have a decent post, or at least not a fatal one, since Porter has indicated that he'll cross-enter her in the Oaks.

- The Albany Times Union Capitol Confidential blog reports this morning that Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver informed his conference that he plans on meeting with Gov. David Paterson soon, possibly in hopes of averting the closure of NYC OTB.

Odds and Ends - April 14

- Worth taking a look at the finish of the 7th at the Big A on Sunday if you can; it was one of two consecutive state-bred stakes races won by Contessa. Study Abroad was closing in on front-running favorite I Promise, and it looked to my naked eyes as if she got there. However, watch carefully, and you'll see Like a Rose sneak up between them and somehow get her nose down in time; she seemed to have no shot at the top spot with just a few strides to go. Great finish there.

I Promise, at even money, was one of six favorites less than 2-1 to lose there on Sunday - no less than three of those at less than even money; and two of those at odds of .45 to 1! Tough day for chalk players.

- Pyro is fine and is on his way to the Derby. Asmussen told Bill Finley of the NY Times that he's "pretty confident it was simply the surface,” but expressed misgivings about the fiasco nonetheless.

“I’m definitely worried that he didn’t do enough in the Blue Grass....I would have worked him by himself. Now, his next work will definitely be in company. I just can’t look at the Blue Grass as a hard race.” [NY Times]

I wonder if he'll interrupt Curlin's vacation to reunite them on the track in the early morning. Even if you simply attribute his poor effort to the Poly, one can no longer say that he hasn't missed a beat in his preparation for the big race. This was a carefully planned campaign, and the horse certainly didn't get anything out of the race at all. It's a setback anyway you look at it, and I can't think it bodes well. On the other hand, man, if I let this horse go at 10-1 and he beats me....

- Barclay Tagg's assistant Joe Rosalez told Bloodhorse that “It’s decision time” after Big Truck's 11th place finish.

“He came back fine, cooled out great, ate up his feed tub. He’s a classy little horse.” [Bloodhorse]

He still has the earnings, and you can add him to the list of synthetic question marks should he still go.

Gayego, who is most definitely off that list, is heading to Churchill today, and he has to be considered one of the top contenders now, even if his Beyer comes back a few points lower than the preliminary 103 he is said to have earned. Mike Smith said that the horse lost a length when he slipped coming out of the gate.

"Down the backside it was just a question of me staying on his back and making him keep his mind on his business," Smith said, calling Gayego's run "spotty."

"He's still learning," Smith added. "He runs some and then he doesn't. Once we caught the leader I stayed busy on him to make sure he stayed focused." [News-Leader.com]

Interesting to note that Gayego went from the six furlong mark to the mile in 25.86. But he got the last eighth in 12.68. So it would seem that Gayego re-broke when challenged at that point by Z Fortune. He's a question mark at the distance - his sire, Gilded Time, has an average winning distance of less than 6 1/2 furlongs, and his dosage comes in high at 4.33. But he certainly has some positives here, not to mention that he's proven to be, at least based on his Beyers, the second fastest three-year old in the prospective field.

- Back to the last post for a moment. The idea that someone connected with NYRA confronted Spitzer with his/her knowledge of his appetite for prostitutes and blackmailed him into choosing it for the franchise seems like classic fodder for conspiracy theorists. It also smacks of the kind of petty retribution one might expect from some of NYRA's defeated foes based on the campaign of distortions they waged against it. However, Eliot Spitzer has proven to be a liar and a psychopath....and I don't think that the latter is really too strong of a word. Thus far, we haven't seen anything to indicate that he was subject to blackmail, or that his indiscretions included anything other than getting laid (and whatever....don't really want to think about the 'whatever'), as opposed to any corruption for his personal financial gain. I don't believe this story about NYRA for a second. But given the circumstances, I don't think it's at all unfair for other to speculate that there was some kind of foul play involved.

- Monba earned a Beyer of 92 for the Blue Grass.

- The Ranger had the Devils staring at the brink, down 0-2 in games and tied 3-3 in the third. However, the visitors played with grim determination and escaped with a 4-3 OT win. I do believe that the Rangers have a significant edge in firepower and talent, and that they will prevail in the end. But it ain't gonna be easy.

Report Suggests Spitzer Was "Blackmailed" Into NYRA Selection

- Check out NY Post columnist Fredric U. Dicker today as he reports exclusively on possible subpoenas for former governors George Pataki and Eliot Spitzer with regard to AG Andrew Cuomo's investigation of the State Police. As you may know, Dicker led the Post's virulent campaign against Spitzer during his brief reign, badgering him extensively - and loudly - on the Troopergate affair. Dicker writes that the "explosive questions" that may be posed during the investigation will relate to whether the State Police knew of Spitzer's affinity for prostitutes, and whether they used it to blackmail the governor in any way; or, on the other hand, if they may have assisted him in his indiscretions.

But Dicker also asserts that one of the questions that will be investigated is this:

Was blackmail behind Spitzer's seemingly inexplicable flip-flop last fall, when he went from adamantly opposing the New York Racing Association's continuing operation of thoroughbred racing in the state to full-fledged support?

Lobbyists associated with NYRA's rivals have claimed in recent days that someone close to the association learned of Spitzer's involvement with prostitutes and used it to pressure him. [NY Post]

My knee jerk reaction to this is to just scoff, especially given the distortions and half (or less) truths that rivals such as Capital Play and Empire aimed at NYRA throughout the franchise process. Spitzer's "flip-flop," as Dicker calls it, is quite easily explainable given NYRA's land claim and its demonstrable record in maintaining the top racing program in the country, combined with the incompetence, arrogance, and lack of relevant experience of its rivals, as well as with Spitzer's own lack of interest in and attention to the subject.

But on the other hand, given what we now know, I suppose it would be foolish to dismiss out of hand any suspicions lobbied at the erstwhile client nine. So, as unlikely as this scenario seems to me, we'll have to wait and see.

Belle of the Derby Ball?

- Sounds as if Rick Porter is determined to run his filly Eight Belles in the Derby.

"I'm conservative by nature," [Trainer Larry] Jones said at his Oaklawn Park barn Sunday morning, "and I've always believed in running fillies against fillies. But Eight Belles is something special, and her owner (Rick Porter) really would like to see her in the Derby.

"Right now, the plan is to give her a work over the Churchill strip, and then make a decision. I guess I better be prepared for a media circus if she goes to the Derby. If not, no one will know she's around." [Associated Press]

Porter has been watching the Derby preps, and obviously hasn't seen anything of late that would dissuade him.

“Obviously, the (April 12 prep races) were a part of the decision-making process,” Porter said. “I’m going to get the (Ragozin) numbers on the top 20 horses, along with the past performances, and sit down and analyze them with Larry. [Bloodhorse]

Hopefully, he won't get too crazy over the Ragozin numbers like a certain other owner did. And if he looks at the past performances, he'll see that she matches up against the prospective field just fine, at least in terms of Beyers. The 99 she earned in her troubled Fantasy win is second only to Big Brown in a two-turn prep this year (not counting a "preliminary" 103 Beyer that Crist reports was earned by Gayego in the Arkansas Derby).

Questions

- Who woulda thunk that the very Moody Blues song I was listening to yesterday would turn out to provide the title of this post? I guess I kinda trailed off in the middle of my half-hearted live blogging yesterday. I managed to avoid the trip to the OTB after getting distracted by other events at home, and limited my losses to my available balances. Whatsmore, the result of the Blue Grass - especially the non-performance of Pyro - left me rather speechless, and also a bit glum about the upcoming Run to the Roses. It seems as if the Derby is presently under a cloud - a synthetic dust cloud, similar to what one might see at Woodbine.

I've been a supporter of the synthetic tracks; I've tried to minimize the differences between them and the dirt ones, and render them insignificant as compared to the goal of improving safety on the track. But there's no getting around the issue this year, especially with the question of how safe the new tracks really are up in the air. In the past, the key questions coming up to the Derby were related to whether horses could handle the distance, the crowd, and the commotion. But this year, the question of the artificial surfaces may be the one that most puzzles handicappers. And not in a good way. Whereas we're able to make at least educated guesses as to the traditional questions using past performances, replays, pedigree charts, and historic trends, here we're all just guessing when it comes to at least three of the horses who will be amongst the main contenders.

Let's take stock of what we know and don't know with respect to the synthetics angle to this year's Derby. Starting with what we don't know:

- Was Pyro's performance totally attributable to the Polytrack? His connections said all the expected things afterwards:

"You could just tell going into the first turn that he wasn't getting over the ground like he normally does," said Scott Blasi, assistant trainer to Steve Asmussen, who was at Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby.

"At no point in the race did I think he looked comfortable," Asmussen told the Keeneland public relations department. "We'll just train him up (to the Derby) accordingly. Hopefully, we can just keep moving forward from here." [Lexington Herald Reader]

Before the race, I was hoping that Pyro wouldn't win so that I could get 6 or 7-1 on him in three weeks. This isn't exactly what I had in mind. Sure, it's easy to say throw out the race. But that running line is going to be ugly. Do you think that 6 or 7-1 is still a fair price now? Is it possible that, in addition to not liking the track, the colt has lost his edge? Or maybe that those who have been insisting that he's not fast enough are correct?

I was watching on ESPN afterwards, and Jerry Bailey and Randy Moss still had Pyro high on their lists. But they were also kinda laughing at each other and at themselves, as if to say, how can you still like that horse after a performance like that? I may very well find that it's hard to do so. There was talk about last year's Blue Grass being "ugly" despite its rousing finish, but it certainly couldn't have been more so than the sight of the even money favorite floundering at the back of the pack.

- Can Colonel John handle the natural dirt? And even if he can, can his moderate Beyers (although I'm no longer sure exactly who, other than Big Brown, they are really moderate this year in comparison to?) be dismissed as irrelevant due to the fact they were earned on synthetics? I could make a good case that, surface aside, this horse is the legitimate Derby favorite based on his class, consistency, foundation (even with only two preps), and running style. But his ability to transfer all of that to the dirt is strictly conjecture, even if his pedigree indicates he can.

- Though I think I'm on safe ground in saying that Cowboy Cal is a turf horse, can we really just similarly dismiss the win by Monba? Or is he a real contender for the Toddster? We wait, as usual, for the Beyer boys to help shape our perception of the race, while knowing from last year that speed figures earned in the Blue Grass don't necessarily add up to much. After a first quarter of almost 25 seconds, it was a remarkably even paced race at around a steady 24 second per quarter pace; Monba got the final eighth in 12.35, and the last 3/8ths in 36.35. You'd think those would be good numbers on any surface.

As you may know, Monba has already won over the Churchill surface; an entry level allowance win at a mile in his second start. He then ran well to be 4th in the Cash Call, continuing a pattern of improving speed figures. If you throw out the Fountain of Youth debacle, in which he was said to have gashed a heel, pulled a muscle and seemed to suffer a breathing obstruction. [Courier Journal], the Blue Grass may have just been a resumption of his progression. I read someone say or write that, well, Stevil finished 4th at 68-1, and he's also a son of Maria's Mon so that shows that it was just the Poly. But I don't see how you can say that considering that Maria's Mon already has sired a Derby winner in Monarchos.

Monba is out of an Easy Goer mare who's a half-sister to two U.S. dirt graded stakes winners in Secret Hello, Silent Account, and Hadif (the latter also a stakes winner in the UK. And Monba has a half-sister Gijima, by Red Ransom, who's stakes placed on the grass. So maybe he likes both surfaces.)

Here's what we do know:

- Gayego can handle the dirt. The son of Gilded Time stalked a quick early pace of 22.71 and 46.61. But it didn't take him 14 seconds to get home; he gamely held off Z Fortune in a last eighth of 12.68, so nice going there. And now, after his four-wide-on-both-turns trip, I'm not feeling quite as bad about having a few bucks on Z Fortune at 38-1 in the first futures pool.

- Besides somehow getting confused - a senior moment perhaps? - and inserting a horse from the 10th race into the Blue Grass, I must say that I had a pretty solid day on Saturday as far as my handicapping on this blog. Of course, I ended up not making a cent. I picked Rebellion ($10.20) right on top, but didn't figure 38-1 Elite Squadron for second (nor 10th race winner Pickapocket at a way overlaid in retrospect 13-1 for Mott, ouch). Also had Meal Penalty ($5.60) by default after the other Pletcher scratched; and close seconds with Pimm's O'Clock and, especially fatal to my betting day, Pick Six.

- The Head Chef is very impressed with Keeneland track announcer Kurt Becker. She was listening as I watched the Blue Grass this morning, and I heard her actually getting into the race just based on the call with a little 'woo.' She was impressed by the way he captured all the action, even managing to slip in the fact that the two Pletchers were running one-two. Becker has always been accurate, and I'd say that he's been sneaking up to me of late as far as my appreciation of announcers go. I heard on TVG just yesterday that he's been hired by NYRA to call the races at Belmont during the time that Durkin is at the Derby and Preakness; so good job there for Becker, getting that gig and the Head Chef's endorsement within just a couple of days.

Wind Alert (w/updates)

- Todd Schrmmppff and Simon Bray are reporting from Keeneland that there's a strong headwind, which they feel will favor the speed [Based on the first four races, I would question that assertion.] Meal Penalty went wire to wire in the second; Rock Chalk closed from 4th in the opener.

Also, Schrmmppff is apparently hot with his picks; he likes Cowboy Cal today.

- Ouch, that was a tough beat in the 4th when Pick Six couldn't hold on. Woulda coulda shoulda had the exacta and the triple there. Suffered from a very wide trip once again, and appeared to take a bad step shortly after the start as well, damn! Nice price at 5-1 too.

I must have misunderstood TVG about their big extravaganza today. I thought they were going to be doing their thing all day; instead it's the usual drab studio fare which has me listening to CDs, including Moody Blues' A Question of Balance. I don't think I've listened to this in 20 years, and for the most part, it's apparent why. But Question is a great song to be sure. Why do we never win a photo, when we're knocking at the door? Or something like that.

Interesting situation in the 5th at KEE. Life Lesson drifted out in the stretch, impeding the progress of the rallying Dan's Pride. The latter finished in a dead heat with Dan's Pride. So when Life Lesson came down, properly it seemed, that created a dead heat for the win spot, with those who bet Dan's Pride probably feeling the most fortunate.

The disqualified winner was trying to go wire to wire, so speed was pretty good in that race.

- I'm alive in the Pick Three starting off with Rutherienne, which is a good result at 6-1. But it was expensive, as I basically used all of the main contenders. So I'm running out of money in my NYRA account. I have a little more in the OTB account, but I'm in serious danger of having to drive to the Forest Hills OTB in order to make a deposit.

- TVG blew the 7th race, and I blew my Pick Threes. I'm wondering if the Head Chef will drive me so I don't have to look for parking. TVG was set up on the wrong finish line, so the camera was downstream, and the virtual yard markers on the track were completely off. Oh man, how embarrassing. At least Carothers, noting that their viewers "aren't dumb," immediately pointed out the problem and apologized. Limestone Edge held on over Ready's Echo, with my top two way back in the pack.

Blue Grass Day (Updated with later races)

- In the first, Pimm's O'Clock ships in from Fair Grounds for Asmussen, quiet at this meeting thus far with just one winner. Note that he's won the last two times he raced after a freshening of similar length to the one he comes off here. This always-trying gelding closed well against slightly cheaper over this track last fall, and his late running style fits. Papa Fuse goes for the hot Cody Autrey barn, who won yesterday with Lil Tree for the second time in six days. Pinpoint drops to a 50K tag off a six month layoff. Note that this horse won three in a row in the spring of 2005, including the Sir Barton Stakes, and then was entered in the Belmont in his 4th 5th lifetime start - he was just 15-1 against Afleet Alex. He was beaten by 34 lengths, and has never won another race. Just thought I'd point that out.

In Race 2, Processor's Turf is one of two TC-nominated colts who ship in from Santa Anita for Pletcher. He comes off two rousing late-closing wins at this distance there, one each on grass and Cushion. Meal Penalty won over this track last fall, and has since been toiling in stakes company out west. Class drop should help, and he gets Johnny V as the 5-2 morning line choice. But Processor's Turf gets Prado, winning at a 29% clip for the Toddster, and could be overlooked as the 'other Pletcher.' Dallas Stewart is smokin' here with three winners in seven starts; throw out the Lane's End for Macho Again, who thrives around one turn. But he raced poorly over the Poly as an 8-5 favorite last fall, and worked very slowly (91 of 91 at the distance) over it last week; question mark could be key to race.

No pick in Race 3, but Inny, the probable favorite for Clement, is a daughter of Pulpit, out of a full sister to the Florida Derby winner Vicar. Why West made a premature move into a lightning pace at a mile at Gulfstream, and was checked twice when beaten late; distance cut back and rider change could help. Some late foot in her debut, on the grass at 5 1/2, indicates that she could take to the surface here. But that was a dismal field and it took nearly 28 seconds for them to get home [her last race, at a mile].

In Race 4, Pick Six is an improving sort for Shug, and that's always a dangerous combination. This son of Dynaformer, out of Grade 1 winner Oh What a Windfall, was extremely wide on both turns on the grass at GP in his last, and closed well for second in a rather remarkable performance. He comes off a two month layoff, and has raced extremely well off of similar respites in the past. Pick Six worked a half on the Poly in 46.3 on 4/3, and the clocker commented: strong effort from the pole, galloped out 59.0. Equitable was also way wide when second in the Commonwealth Turf at Churchill in November for Mott. This is his first race since then, and he looms as the class of the field from the outside ten post. Son of AP Indy is inbred 3x4to Secretariat, and is out of a half to G1 winner Peaks and Valleys. Tiger Woodman improved nicely with Castellano, but switches to Gomez today. I don't like Sedgefield, but here's another case in which a horse hasn't been the same since being entered inappropriately in a Triple Crown race.

A couple of interesting first-timers in Race 5. Reve de Fille goes for Graham Motion, 11% with first-timers over the last two years. Here's a daughter of the faltering Storm Cat, 17% with first-timers, out of Bosra Sham (Woodman), a G1 winner on the grass in the UK, and a half to two other Euro stakes winners, and to the dam of the G1 Secretariat winner Ciro. This filly's pedigree is teeming with grassy stakes winners in his female family, which certainly shouldn't hurt her chances on the Poly. She's had a long string of steady works going back to December, capped with two quick moves this month. Embellish debuts for Mark Casse, 23% with first-timers over the last two years. This daughter of Mineshaft shows two blazing works over the track. She's a half to three stakes horses (two of those in Japan), and is out of a Storm Bird mare who's a half to the Grade 1 winners Judge Angelucci, Peace, and War; the latter won the Blue Grass stakes in 1987. However, note that her sire is 1-for-31 with his first-timers.

The sixth race is the G2 Jenny Wiley, a wonderfully wide open stakes on the grass. No pick here with several graded stakes winners coming off layoffs - Sealy Hill, Rutherienne, Bit of Whimsy, Lady of Venice, Precious Kitten, wow!! I don't think there's any getting around going quite deep on your Pick Whatevers in this race. Roshani has a recency edge on the rest for Pletcher with a facile win against a moderate six horse field at Santa Anita last month.

In Race 7, Manager Boire confirmed a win in his debut and stretched out to two turns with a fine second against winners. The running line doesn't show it, but he was dead last heading into the first turn after brushing the gate. He saved ground from there, but had to wait for running room turning for home. Five of the horses from that race have run back, with two winners, two seconds, and a third; winner My Pal Charlie was second to Pyro in the La Derby. Makes his Poly debut here. Palmers has improved steadily for Mark Casse, and beat Recapturetheglory on the grass when running second in his last. Readys Echo stands to be a solid favorite for Pletcher off his spectacular late runs; tries winners for the first time, and needs to break more alertly.

The 8th is the G2 Commonwealth, and man, this is a tough seven furlong sprint here. I don't wanna be a wuss and beg out of wide open stakes like this, but there's something to be said for those who feel that, when it comes strictly to betting, they'll take a Thursday afternoon card over this stuff any day of the week. After all, we can just sit and watch races like this. Can't we?

Well, in case we can't, let's look for some value, and Rebellion looks as if he fits well in this spot for Motion. Forget the BC Mile...and by the way Kip Deville is the first horse to come out of that spot and win...prior to that was a fast closing second on this track in the G3 Phoenix. And before that a seven furlong turf stakes win in NY. The BC was his last race, and he returns off a solid string of works, culminating in a bullet (of six, including Grasshopper) six furlong work. As opposed to some of the others, he's had success with this track and this distance, and could present some value here (6-1 ML, and will probably be higher IMO). Frankel won two stakes this past week, and has a couple of sharp shippers from SA in Storm Military (9-2) and Thousand Words (7-2). The latter was the easiest of winners in allowance company in his last under a supremely confident hold by David Flores; runnerup Neko Bay ran second in a stakes in his next race, and the third place horse won a 50K claimer. He worked a bullet (of 49) 59.1 over the Poly on his own, according to the clocker. Tough to leave this one out of the top spot entirely to be sure, and I surely won't. Xchanger (4-1) returns off a layoff after a poor conclusion to his three-year old year, and tries Poly and the distance for the first time. No value at that price. Forefathers (4-1) has a couple of imposing figs and returned in sharp form for Mott last month at GP. I think that his odds need to reflect the fact that his one Poly try, at Turfway, was awful (though it was against Hard Spun), and his lone grass try wasn't so hot either.

So yeah, there's the Blue Grass too, but it's getting late, and I'm running out of time and mental energy. I think I have some pretty good ideas which sound good on paper at least; we'll see how they turn out in fact. I'd have to say that Pick Six in the 4th is my best bet of the day. In the big race, Pyro is, in my opinion as you may know, the clear class of the three-year old colts. He hasn't missed a beat, and he's trained confidently and steadily over this track. His last work was a half in a seemingly leisurely 50.3, but he was off in 26.4, finished well on his own and was not asked for effort, according to the clocker. I think he's the clear class here. But he doesn't need to win, and he certainly has not trained with any particular urgency it would seem. And there's the Polytrack question. So I'll probably fool around with a couple of others, all of whom should be fair prices you'd think. In particular, I like Big Truck for the reasons stated here (#9). Monba is an interesting possibility given his win over the track last year, of some concern is that he's yet to be too successful around two turns; and maybe look at Cowboy Cal or Lattice [oops, how did I get him into this race?] on the turf-to-Poly angle, which I consider a near given when it comes to this particular course.

That's it - good luck and have a fantastic day!

...Oh, what's this? Rangers in 60 is on again? How many times can one watch the Rangers defeat their rivals 2-1 thus taking a 2-0 series lead home to the Garden?

A Little Pork Can Go a Long Way

- The Harness Racing Museum and Hall of Fame, located in upstate Goshen, NY, will receive a grant of $35,000 in taxpayer money from Republicans in the [NY] Senate. (Perhaps some of the money can be used to repair the website, which was down when I posted this.)

The money is part of the $200 million in "member items" that is included in the state budget which was agreed to by Governor Paterson and his friends in the legislature on Wednesday, a mere nine days late. That money ($85 million each for the Senate and Assembly, $30 million for Paterson) is available for lawmakers to dispense as they see fit - "pork barrel spending" if you prefer. Other examples cited by the Times are $5,000 to the Long Island Polar Bear Club, whose annual swim at Jones Beach on New Year's Day is always good for some local TV coverage, $2,000 to the Association of Sicilians United of NY, and $2,500 to the Doll and Toy Museum in NYC.

This money, as well as some $700 million for capital projects, usually non-profits (and if I'm not mistaken, that is the money that got Joe Bruno in trouble for giving $500,000 to his buddy Jared Abbruzzese's Evident Technologies), is being held up as a poster boy of the excess spending in the $121.7 billion budget, which is a 5% increase from last year. The budget uses one-time revenue shots (such as the $250 million anticipated fee from the still-yet-to-be-named operator of the Aqueduct VLT parlor), and new taxes and fees to try and make up for the spending. Smokers will now be paying close to ten bucks a pack here in the city with the cigarette tax going up $1.25; all of us will likely be paying for $70 million in new taxes on health insurance policies; and particularly insidious to me is a new law requiring out-of-state internet companies such as Amazon to charge sales tax. Ouch, that last one really hurts me and others who have grown accustomed to saving 8 3/8% on such purchases!

But that $200 million, while it makes for easy fodder for ridicule, is a mere drop in the bucket overall, representing a mere .165% of the overall budget. And the money can serve as a lifeline for tiny organizations and establishments which can mean a lot to a lot of people. So to me, that's the least of the problem. And that I guess is my take on pork barrel spending in general. It may be a typical liberal view on the matter, but then again, I guess that I'm a pretty typical liberal.

Remaining unresolved in the wake of the budget agreement is the NYC OTB situation. The operation is set to be shut down in mid-June, and you can bet that Mayor Mike will be in no mood for compromise after his congestion pricing and teacher tenure proposals were shot down.

"To date, while there has been much talk about the need for legislative action to save OTB, the talk has not produced any concrete legislative action," OTB President Raymond Casey testified Wednesday at a City Council hearing.
....
Casey was urged by an angry Councilman Robert Jackson (D-Manhattan) to simply stop paying the state and horse-racing industry their shares of net revenues.

"Make them sue you for it," Jackson said, describing the state and the New York Racing Association as pigs "feeding on our corn." [NY Daily News]

And there's a thoughtful and rational solution to the problem for you! I wonder how much this guy knows about anything related to the industry.

- The Harness Hall of Fame also recently benefited from two grants for a project dedicated to memorializing Roosevelt Raceway, where it all began for yours truly and I'd surmise for at least a few of those of you reading this today as well.

With the aid of two 2007-08 Museum Collection and Research Grants from the New York State Council on the Arts, the museum will record and digitize the more than 8,000 photographs, videos, programs and posters rescued from the raceway prior to its demolition in 2000.

The $15,000 grant for Phase I of the project will focus on a group of 3,500 press files containing photographs and press information, as well as a significant collection of video tape recordings salvaged from the shuttered raceway. After a second review of the museum’s project, the council awarded an additional $5,000 for the 2007/08 phase of the project. [Goshen Chronicle]

Definitely sounds like a worthwhile stop on my next trip up Route 17 to Monticello the Concord!

Thursday Night Notes - April 10

- Third place for Just Zip It, who may have run into a buzzsaw in Salt Water Reign ($13.20). The winner's final time of 1:23.39 was over a second and a half faster than that state-bred stakes that trainer Bill Turner passed on last Sunday. Of course, we'll have to wait and see the figs to see how the track played each day in comparison; but Salt Water Reign was tough, setting an honest pace and then rambling home in 12.90.

Just Zip It broke well this time and then dropped back to 4th, about three lengths behind. She took off three wide entering the turn, perhaps a bit prematurely. She got within a half length or so of the winner turning for home, but it was quickly apparent that she was no going to be match for her on this day. When Contessa's filly What's Your Point, who saved ground all the way, drew alongside a tiring Just Zip It, she gamely tried to hold second. She failed to do so by a half length, but I thought she showed a lot of grit there.

Whatsmore, she lost a shoe somewhere down the backstretch. So I'm going to say that she was definitely second best, and that she should certainly compete in this company, with its $48,000 purse. The 10% third place share should pay for her expenses....for what, about a month and a half?

Back to Salt Water Reign, the owner was standing amidst our group during the race, and at first I thought he was with us. I couldn't understand though why he was calling our filly 'Salty.' I can be a real idiot sometimes. "I TOLD you seven furlongs," he said to a companion after the finish. This filly was really hit or miss in 2007, but this was her third race off a nearly eight month layoff, and she shows a really nice pattern of improvement since returning in January. She's by Salt Lake, out of a mare by Ruhlmann; remember him? Trained by Charles Whittingham, he won seven graded stakes, including the Big Cap, for his owner Jerry Moss. He was not named after any Police albums.

I'm putting this filly on my DRF Watch List, which I've finally now re-enabled. I set up a Gmail address, and I had to also register with a different password on the Form site. Apparently, they were all getting blocked by Yahoo - BRIS too. Weird.

Pletcher won with two first time starters at Keeneland on Thursday. Garden District took the baby race with, as described in the race chart, a sharp debut. It actually was a perfect, ground saving trip behind dueling speed until Mine All Mine came in on Corbina, causing the latter to bump Garden District as she was rallying up the rail. The daughter of Unbridled's Song was undaunted by what was pretty severe contact and went on to win easily with Johnny V at 6-1.

Then, as mentioned by reader Brett, Charming, a $3.2 million daughter of Seeking the Gold, out of the multiple graded stakes winner Take Charge Lady, made her debut in the 6th. Sent off as the 3-2 favorite, this filly also had an adventurous debut, exchanging, and in my view, initiating some contact with runner up Spring Illusion. This was a great finish, with Charming hanging game after leading every step of the way on the Poly, the only horse to do so on the day (and who knows, perhaps the entire meeting as well).

Frankel took the stakes race for the second day in a row. Ariege rallied down the center of the track to win the Beaumont, her second graded stakes win in row. This three-year old is by the Seattle Slew sire Doneraile Court, out of Grade 1 winner (Beverly D, Yellow Ribbon) Kostroma (Caerleon), and this is the female family of Nashoba's Key (the third dam of Nashoba's Key is the second dam of Ariege).