Early Belmont

A few comments on a few of the early races follow. I was told by someone at NYRA that they will do whatever they can to keep the 4th and 5th races on the grass; the source expects them to be on the turf, while acknowledging how improbable that seems....especially here just past midnight, with the drizzle continuing. But things seem to be looking up on the weather radar, and mucho sunshine is promised for Saturday. NYRA has a lot at stake in keeping these competitive heats on the grass with the big numbers expected in the mutuel pool on their big day. (Of course, if there was Polytrack, they could run the race in any weather and still probably retain most if not all of the field.) [UPDATE: Those races are indeed on the turf, rated soft; the 12th and 13th races are off. You gotta love the Turf Course Update feature on the NYRA website.]

In the first, Blow Up (6-1) moves up to face winners after graduating impressively first time Lasix, jumping up to a career high Beyer while coming home in 12 3/5. The combination of Jorge Chavez riding for trainer John Toscano has been a hot one - three winners and a third in their last four, including Stormy Success ($10.20) on Thursday. Inger Management (5-2) would benefit from a sloppy track; has good speed regardless and generally hangs around for a share. Potential speed duel here with Dixieland Star (2-1); this son of of Hook and Ladder has a clear advantage in Beyers, but hasn't been out in nearly a year. Could be an eager beaver early for Kimmel and help set the race up for the top choice at a fair price. Toque (15-1) has finished strongly against weaker; Karakorum on Black (12-1) hails from a sharp stable - either or both (or, perhaps, none) could help liven up the ten cent superfecta offered in the opener.

In the third, the Phipps homebred Bimini (6-1) makes his second start, for Shug. Well-bet in his debut, the son of Seeking the Gold broke poorly and trailed the field before moving up the rail; he ran his middle three eighths in 33 4/5. He flattened out, but finished with enthusiasm for 4th. I expect the longer distance to benefit this colt out of Cat Cay, a graded stakes winning Pleasant Colony mare and a half sister to Strolling Along, winner of the marathon Lawrence Realization. Convocation (3-1) finished strongly for second behind a hot Zito firster over a muddy track at this distance; that for the sharp Jimmy Jerkens barn. Allrightsreserved (7-2) has run well in two one-turn mile races for the Toddstar.

Running in a Grade 2 stakes off an 11 month layoff, one thing I must say for Benny the Bull is that he should have the perfect pace scenario with at least four of his five opponents figuring to be on or near the front. But there seems to be some bad vibes emanating from IEAH these days - the disappointment of Stardom Bound and Patena, the last minute defection of the probable Derby favorite I Want Revenge, and now the lawsuit filed against it by that horse's original owner and breeder. So I'd try to beat him, but it's hard to imagine anyone but probable favorite Fabulous Strike emerging from the early fray.

I may or may not be back with some of the later races, which look much too hard.

Weather and Times Cast a Pall

Another miserable day here in New York, and the rain is not expected to let up until later this evening. The track is sloppy today, and the non-stakes turf races are off. I'd be quite surprised if the early turf races aren't taken off tomorrow; too bad, as they seemed like nice wagering affairs. Another tough break for NYRA, which tried to make today's card attractive with the Brooklyn and Acorn on tap; and a certain loss of wagering revenue can be expected if they go off the grass tomorrow. I do recall several years ago a similar weather scenario, and NYRA worked all night to get the normally slow-drying track fast by post time. Regardless of whether that's the case by tomorrow's 11:35 first race post (for heaven's sake), with a good forecast for tomorrow, I'd expect that the track will certainly be fast by the 6:27 post time (for heaven's sake) for the Belmont.

Some discussion in the comments section about Joe Drape's article in the NY Times today, and the lack of any other Belmont Stakes content whatsoever; and I'll just refer you there rather than...er...beat a dead horse here (yikes, sorry). Steve in nc correctly points out that it's not unusual for the Times, or I suppose any paper, to run a so-called exposé to coincide with a big event. I recall a couple of years ago when the Paper of Record ran its depressing series on the poor health of many former NFL players during Super Bowl week. However, those stories were certainly not at the expense of the game coverage itself, and that's what shocks and disappoints me the most in this case. I mean, the Times is a New York paper, and to not have a single mention of the city's biggest race of the year on the day before the event is just unbelievable and inexcusable to me.

Well, hopefully I'll get to do some handicapping tonight and get some thoughts up on the undercard for tomorrow morning. But as far as the Belmont itself goes, I certainly haven't changed my opinion regarding either Charitable Man or Dunkirk, both of whom I'll be standing firmly against. Miner's Escape (15-1) is one of two starters for Zito, who, as we know, certainly knows how to prep seemingly subpar horses to peak in this race. I don't expect that he can battle early for the lead and survive as he did in winning the Tesio; but if you can surmise that Charitable Man, who reminds me a bit of Casino Drive coming into this race, can get the distance at 5-2, then I can certainly speculate that Miner's Escape can stalk at 15-1 or more. By Mineshaft out of a Broad Brush half-sister to Indian Charlie, perhaps he has the pedigree to go the distance. Flying Private (12-1) has improved nicely at three for four-time Belmont winner Wayne Lukas. Took a step back after close seconds in the Mountain View and Lanes End, but bounced back with his career best 102 Beyer, rallying through trouble for 4th in the Preakness. I look at heavy campaign (12 races, 8 this year) as a plus in this case. Mine That Bird is indeed more than fair value at 2-1, as pointed out by Steve Crist, who completed a hat trick of rubber-stamping the favorite in each of the three Classics this year. If I just had to pick a winner, I guess he would be it, and I'll be more than happy to see him win for Borel, and for trainer Chip Woolley, who has turned out to be a good guy after his shaky start on NBC in the Derby. He'll be in all of my Pick Whatever bets, but I think he's worth taking a shot against in the win pool.

Our Chance

New York's Task Force on the Future of Off Track Betting, created last year when the state took over NYCOTB, held its first meeting last month. It's already two months late with its mandate to issue a final report on its recommendations on how to reform the long-broken status quo of six regional OTB's which compete with each other and with NYRA. However, we know how these things go around here. At least the panel, at its meeting on May 14, immediately called on the OTB's to refrain from entering into long-term contracts or deals in anticipation, we hope, of a long-awaited consolidation in one form or another.

Whatsmore, the panel also promised to solicit opinions from all industry stakeholders....and that includes us horseplayers, the lifeblood of the industry. And today, the Task Force issued a press release which included an email address for us to tell them what we think about OTB, and what we think a restructured system should look like (and/or, if you'd like, what you think about this).

“As anyone who has gone to the track knows, horseplayers are not a group of people who are shy about expressing ideas and opinions,” said Tom Casaregola , a member of the panel who also serves as the director of audits and investigations for the New York State Racing and Wagering Board. “Our hope is that horse players, casual fans, and industry participants alike will write to us with their feedback on issues with their OTB’s, their comments about their experiences at off track betting parlors and their ideas on things they would like to see happen.”

Oh yeah, I think I might have a few comments and suggestions, how about you? So, here it is:

nysotbtaskforce@gmail.com

Obviously, the thoughtful emails will be taken more seriously than the ones that read: OTB SUCKS!, so please be respectful.

- Bad timing for those in Nassau County who want to watch the Belmont undercard (and yes, I fully agree with the readers who suggest that we move on those more interesting betting races).

“NYRA’s racing signal is valuable and proprietary and we cannot allow it to be pirated by our competitors in the industry,” said NYRA President Charles Hayward. [Thoroughbred Times]

Well, therein lies the whole problem with OTB in the state - the mere fact that it's a competitor to, rather than a cooperator with the racing provider. NYRA claimed that it hadn't received a satisfactory explanation for Nassau OTB having streamed its signal - as you know NYRA is, incredibly, still not itself permitted to stream its own signal on its own websites. And, reading OTB's response, I'd say that they still haven't received one.

Nassau Regional OTB, in its statement, said streaming video on its Internet betting platform is provided by Scientific Games Racing.

"Contrary to NROTB’s clear written directives to SciGames to not to stream NYRA races on the site, when SciGames switched streaming video providers in early 2009, the NYRA stream was disseminated erroneously. Upon notification that such dissemination was occurring, NROTB corrected the problem immediately. [Bloodhorse]

The classic "we didn't know" excuse doesn't quite cut it here considering that it went on for more than two months on its very own website, according to NYRA. Pretty weak.

Belmont Notes

Fairway Drive ($7) was another winner, in the 4th at Belmont on Wednesday, for the sharp Carlos Martin barn; now nine winners from 28 starters at the meet. The six-year old gelded son of Western Expression (a full brother to the graded winner I Lost My Choo) was moving up in class to 25K from 20K, coming off a career high Beyer running at his lowest claiming level ever in his 31st career start; and won by a measured neck under a confident Ramon Dominguez, now nine for his last 20 for Martin.

This horse has some interesting breeding, inbred as he is to Ribot (5x3), Buckpasser (4x5), Somethingroyal (through Secretariat and Sir Gaylord (5x5); and, most unusually, Majestic Prince (4x4). 1969 was a few years before my racing time, so I don't remember when Majestic Prince came to the Belmont Stakes with a chance to win the Triple Crown, and do so undefeated. Fortunately (though not for you Fred Caposella fans), Harvey Pack tells the whole story during this video of the race. (Check out Arts and Letters, the #2 horse and eventual winner, jumping a tire track shortly after the start.)



Did you hear Harvey say that, with the closer Dike in the lead, the first six furlongs went 1:16 and the second 1:12?? Wow, they just don't run the Belmont like that anymore. Going back to 1999, only one Belmont even came close to having the second half of the race go faster than the first. In 2007, CP West and Slew's Tizzy crawled to the three-quarters in 1:15 1/5 (as Garrett Gomez sat in 4th with Hard Spun); so when Curlin and Rags to Riches took over, they were fresh in the stretch, getting the final quarter in 23 3/4, the only sub-24 second final quarter of the decade. What a race - that's the way I'd always want to see the Belmont run, but these horses just don't have the stamina these days it seems. I imagine that they'll get to the halfway point in around 1:12 to 1:13 or so on Saturday, and in the neighborhood of 1:16 coming home; and I think they'll be some surprises coming along in the last 26 or 27 seconds so as they run the final quarter.

- That 2007 Belmont is always worth a look.

Charitable Prop

Got this prop line from Bodog yesterday:

Will the 141st Belmont Stakes have a greater attendance than the 140th Belmont Stakes (94,476)?

Yes +250

No -400

Now c'mon, that's gotta be free money, right? The weather forecast is favorable and NYRA is doing all they can. But there's no way in the world they're getting that kind of crowd, right? I don't think they would even if Mine That Bird was going for the Triple Crown. Barring the most special of circumstances, the days of 100,000+ are over in my mind given the high prices and alcohol ban.

The post positions have been drawn, and nice job in my view by the morning oddsmaker Eric Donovan. His projections correctly reflect the way that the betting odds are compressed in Triple Crown races these days. You may scoff at the notion of Luv Gov returning a mere 20-1 as Donovan's longest shot in the race; but that's the way these contests are bet. (Yes, Da' Tara was 38-1, but remember that Big Brown was 3-10.)

Down on the other end of the scale, we have Mine That Bird (2-1), Charitable Man (3-1), and Dunkirk (4-1). In my most humble opinion, Mine That Bird is the only horse that I would even faintly contemplate betting on at those odds....which I don't think he'll quite be.

I am just not getting the fascination with Charitable Man in this particular race one bit. Yes, he has very nice one-turn form, ran very well (with a perfect setup) in the Peter Pan, and he has an extremely confident and capable trainer in Kiaran McLaughlin. But I just don't see how you can take odds like 3-1 in the Belmont Stakes on a horse who finished 7th in his only race around two turns. (And how many better 3-1 shots will there be on the card??) You can cite every excuse in the book for his Blue Grass effort - it was on Polytrack, off a layoff, he got caught wide....and they're all perfectly legitimate. But they only go to explain possible reasons why he failed, and not at all whether he's a legitimate router.

Is he? Quite possibly if not probably. But a mile and a half? This race is just a guess - we really have no idea if any of these horses can handle it, but to me, he might just be, on his form, the most iffy proposition to get the distance in the entire race except for Brave Victory. Honestly, I don't know if there's any price that would get me excited to bet him in this spot. No way he's going to be out there alone (and I wouldn't like him even if I thought he would be). Remember, Zito/La Penta have an uncoupled entry, and you can bet that Miner's Escape will be out there winging. I think Chocolate Candy could be close to the pace, and that the Derby winner is going to be involved up front far sooner than in his prior races.

Dunkirk is a bit more palatable - I'd probably be all over him at, say, er, maybe 8-1. I love the horse, but I absolutely hate the way he's been handled, rushed into the Triple Crown with minimal experience. Don't see why his troubled Derby and another five weeks off is going to propel him to stardom here.

I think that Mine That Bird is the most probable winner, but also a poor wagering proposition at the 3-2 or so that I think he'll go off. So I'm looking for a bombshell to throw a flyer (or two) on. But I'll have to get back to you as to who.

- This was my favorite proposition bet:

Who will the winning jockey thank first in the post race interview?

Parents 3/2

Trainer 7/2

Horse 4/1

God 4/1

Owner 6/1

Himself 20/1

DiscreetCat writes: "As far as thanking himself, only 20/1? This is Calvin Borel we're talking about, not Rickey Henderson."

I'd be all over God at 4-1 if Patrick Day was riding Mine That Bird.

Hunch Bets for June 2

High Volt Jolt 5th at Delaware
I Pick You 9th at Finger Lakes
Tricky Surprise 7th at Mountaineer
Memories of George 7th at Mountaineer
Theromanceisover 2nd at Finger Lakes

Green and White

Minnie Punt ($58.50) was the upset winner of the New York Stallion Stakes for colts and geldings on Sunday with a clever ride by Johnny V, who saved some ground on the turn and managed to find a way through to victory. Little question in my mind that it was that shorter route that was the difference between he and favored Uncle T Seven, who circled five wide and settled for second. Interestingly, Velazquez had never before ridden for trainer Mike Miceli....at least going back the five years that Formulator does.

These Stallion Stakes are limited to horses sired by actual New York stallions, as opposed to horses like Funny Cide (Distored Humor) whose dams were returned to New York to foal. Minnie Punt is by Gold Fever, who, at one time, stood at Questroyal up near Albany. However, now he's at Dove Hill Farm in Minnesota, for $2850; and he thought it was cold upstate? He was the Minnesota's leading sire in 2008. I understand that the Coleman campaign attempted to get his vote counted, but the Franken team successfully argued that Gold Fever was ineligible to vote by virtue of his being a horse.

- NYRA seems to be pulling out all the stops to try and promote the Belmont. The improved flow of emailed information to the media continues (not that I'm media, but I am on the list), and there's a satellite newsfeed available too. There's a media event scheduled for the Empire State Building this morning with jockey Rajiv Maragh (Brave Victory) and trainer Time Ice (Summer Bird). And, the Empire State Building will shine its tower lights green and white in the race's honor on Thursday night. That's pretty cool I'd say, though many people will probably think it's for the Bloomberg campaign.

Emma is Eager, Rachel, Not

Eager Emma won the 6th at Belmont on Friday for Shug; the first win for this three-year old NY-bred daughter of Unbridled's Song, out of the graded stakes winning NY-bred Shawklit Mint. Shawklit Mint is by the Wood Memorial winner Air Forbes Won, a son of Bold Forbes, the 1976 Derby and Belmont winner.

And man, what a great Belmont Stakes that was. This year, given yesterday's developments, NYRA will be quite fortunate to a) have a crowd as large as the 57, 519 on hand that day; and b) to have such a memorable edition of its classic race in a year, as in 1976 when Preakness winner Elocutionist did not run, in which the only plot lines are the presence of the Derby winner and the tradition of the race itself. "I told him 'Just get me to the eighth pole,' and I'll take it from there," said Angel Cordero Jr. And with the Hall of Fame jockey driving furiously, an exhausted Bold Forbes held off Great Contractor and Mackenzie Bridge, gutting it out in a final time of 2:29 after the mile and a quarter in 2:01 4/5 (just a fifth slower than his Derby win). The victory by the Puerto-Rican-owned colt thrilled the Latino community. Hopefully, it won't come out that Sonia Sotomayor bet on the horse; the Republicans will then accuse her of allowing her ethnicity to influence her opinions.

As for the announcement that Rachel Alexandra will not run, I imagine you've seen the statement by Jess Jackson by now. "We will always put her long-term well-being first. And, of course, we want to run her when she is fresh." Some of us, including yours truly, felt that Jackson could, if not should, have said that before the Preakness. Of course, I was wrong that she wouldn't run well; the notion that Jackson was taking an undue risk is certainly easy to dismiss now.

To me, it still comes down to what that risk was in relation to the reward; and now we can start to quantify the latter. There's no question that the filly made a big impact with her dazzling Preakness win and, as evidenced by the TV ratings, with her sheer presence. However, I think it's perfectly legitimate to ask: Is the publicity that she generated better for the game then what would have resulted from a likely, in my opinion though by no means certain, Preakness win by Mine That Bird? (Charlie Hayward figures it cost NYRA some 30,000 fans on track) And, will her panache carry over beyond the Triple Crown once the sport goes into its self-imposed virtual media blackout that is its relationship with ESPN?

- The 1976 Belmont Stakes:

No News Is No News

As a reader noted, Paul Post reported in the Thoroughbred Times on Thursday of a "delay" in the selection of Aqueduct racino operator.

"Nothing’s going to happen before the end of the legislative session on June 22," said Gary Pretlow (D-Yonkers), chairman of the Assembly Racing, Wagering, and Gaming Committee.

Pretlow made the prediction based on "history; experience with the way things go around here."

I don't really consider that to be news. Nobody in his right mind could have thought it would be done by June 22. Especially since, as Paterson's spokesperson said a couple of weeks ago, the six or seven bidders will all be fully vetted; and that, besides, the three leaders "have a lot of things taking up their time – this is just one of them.”

Do you think this will get done by the time Saratoga opens? By the time it closes?

Post does the math, which, considering the anticipated build time of over a year, and the feeling that NYRA could run out of cash by late 2010, is rather fuzzy at this point.

Governor Paterson is likely far more consumed with raising his poll numbers. I'd said a few weeks ago that I thought they'd leveled out. I meant to say something more along the lines of 'bottomed out,' but I guess leveled is more appropriate, as in, finding a level and staying there. This guy is really in the tank; check this out - the latest Siena poll has Cuomo beating him by 50 points in a primary matchup! The press is starting to report on a prospective race to replace Cuomo as Attorney General as if his running is a foregone conclusion.

The poll also noted an improvement in the standing of former governor Eliot Spitzer. It was taken however before the release of what Capital Confidential's Casey Seiler properly referred to as his cranky testimony in the investigation of the Committee on Public Integrity which led to the resignation of chairman Herbert Teitelbaum, and spawned Paterson's current effort to replace and revamp the panel.

I wanted to mention Spitzer's tirade last week and never got around to it, so I'm glad to have the excuse to link to it here. The former governor of New York just went off on Inspector General Joseph Fisch, at one point calling him "one more little Pac-Man participating in this fishing expedition." It's a stunning performance in which he repeatedly cuts off Fisch - “My time is precious, Judge. What is your question?” - and dismissively refers to the Paterson Administration as “individuals within the chamber." No cutting and pasting can do Spitzer justice here, so just read for yourself if you're interested (full transcript in PDF here).

Spitzer has come a decent ways toward his rehabilitation, with his regular Slate column, appearances on TV and op ed pages, and even public appearances with his wife. There was even some semi-serious speculation that he could be in line to head the SEC! But this shows that the guy just can't control his anger. I actually don't blame him for being annoyed that he's still dealing with the repercussions of Troopergate. At this point, it's almost two years in the past, one of the key principals was forced to resign in utter disgrace, and the other is under federal indictment. Regardless you'd think he'd learn a lesson about something from his short reign, which was already crumbing under his inability to rein in his temper before his dick did him in. He's a bit of a lunatic I'd have to say. Bruno was certainly right about that.

Pullover

Not only did Extra Zip win the first, but it looks like Carlos Martin may have pulled one over, getting away with exposing him to the 30K optional tag that allowed him to run for allowance conditions that he'd already overcome. He took a little late money on the nose in the win pool, and won easily under a supremely confident Ramon Dominguez getting the final eighth in 11.86 seconds.

- I guess that if you're going to have a three horse race, it might as well be the first leg of a pick four. Sure wasn't much interest in the win pool, with a mere $106,780 wagered, most of that on the 2-5 favorite Moose Man, who completed a Ramon early double.

- I noted earlier that Contessa was slumping - three for his first 76 starters at the Belmont meeting - so of course he won twice, including Deb's Roof the dead-heat co-winner of the race who, according to the chart, finished full of run to get up in the final stride. Just a minor point here to the chartcaller: "get up" strongly implies, if not definitively states, that the horse "got up" to win the race outright. At least to me. I know you didn't ask, but Got up for a share is how I would have phrased it!

We all know that Contessa is not a high percentage guy; he overpowers his rivals in the trainer standings on sheer volume. But the fact is that he's a solid 12% guy at least (though he's slowly but steadily declined over the last five years from 15% to 12% over the last year). And though he thrives at the Big A, he's still 11% at Belmont over the last two years even including his recent woes. I'd suspect that he'll be much closer to that number than his present Mendoza Line figures by the time the meet ends.

Belmont Notes

A couple of trainers who have been sharp with their layoff horses have starters returning to action at Belmont today. In the first, a wide-open state-bred sprint scheduled for the turf, Carlos Martin starts Extra Zip (9-2) for the first time since Saratoga. The barn is six for 21 (29%) in the 180+ category over the last two years; and its last two such starters were Sax in the City (second by a head at 4-1) and Fairway Drive ($13.80). Extra Zip finished 2008 with two lackluster efforts, but returns, via his $30K optional claiming tag, to a level at which he won at Belmont the last time he tried it. Sharp works and Dominguez (43% in 21 rides for the barn in 2008-9) is aboard. Shorter distance is a question mark and, as I said, it's a fun, competitive heat assuming it stays on grass. Gold Vendetta (5-1) is a head away from being 2-for-2 on the turf, and goes second off the layoff for Alan Goldberg. The barn is 20% in that category, and the horse has improved each time off that pattern. Missinglisalewis (4-1) comes off a close third at this level.

Trainer Harold James Bond had two layoff winners this past weekend - Sezzana ($12.80) and Smart Engagement ($10.40). In the 8th, Gattinara (10-1) makes her first start since September. She's an in-and-out sort with some poor lines at Finger Lakes; but her last two races at this particular level on NYRA tracks have resulted in a win and a neck loss, both with Beyers that would put her in the mix here. Looks like there are others who may have a class edge - Point Me To It, from the slumping Contessa barn, and three-year olds Stormy's Smile, Karakorum Fugitive, and Olde Glamour - but this six-year daughter of Raffie's Majesty could spice up the exotics here.

Poppycock

The Shinnecock Tribe reached an agreement with the Interior Department which it feels will earn it federal recognition by December 15.

Once federally recognized, they would immediately have the right to build a “Class II” casino on their 800-acre reservation, a designation that would mean they could have thousands of video slot machines, but no table games.....

“We’re surrounded by the wealthiest communities in the country, yet the state of affairs on the reservation is one of offhanded neglect,” said Frederick C. Bess, one of the Shinnecock Nation’s three trustees. [NY Times]

However, the notion of slots in the Hamptons has long been unpopular there; and besides, the tribe has bigger game in mind in the form of a full-blown casino.

Among sites that have been discussed as possible locations are the Aqueduct and Belmont raceways, and the defunct Shoreham nuclear power plant - though all discussions are considered extremely preliminary. [Newsday]

Well, we all know that by December 15, the construction of the Big A racino will be well under way! Right?? Of course, for all we know about the closed-door process, the Shinnecocks may already have a hand in one of the bids.

- You may have noticed on NYRA's homepage, wedged neatly between an ad for an upcoming handicapping contest and Andy Serling's mug, a banner ad regarding NYRA's auction of land plots surrounding the Big A, which is scheduled for June 10. Click on the photo for a closeup, and you'll see that most of the lots are vacant. And that is of concern to Ozone Park residents.

But people who have lived near the Aqueduct Racetrack are worried that the open space, which will go on the auction block June 10, will be replaced with rows of new housing - putting more stress on the local infrastructure in Ozone Park.
.....
New homes could worsen flooding problems, he said. It's unclear whether there's enough power to supply new residences.

"We have real concerns about this quiet little area that is going to be changed forever," [Sen. Joseph] Addabbo said. [NY Daily News]

According to the piece, some residents were led to believe that they would get first crack at the lots; but a NYRA spokesperson said that they are not allowed to give preference to any buyers.

Met Musings

I couldn't even remember who Alan Garcia rode to win last year's Met Mile after it was said that his win on Bribon (almost had to look that up too) was his second Met Mile win in a row. Oh yeah, Divine Park; I remember that one, whisked away to stud after just nine career races. His next start after the Met Mile was his last; the Woodward confirmed that he was never going to win any real distance races, so now he stands at Airdrie Stud for $17,500. I looked back at the news articles regarding his retirement, and didn't see anything about an injury. If you go to his Stallion Register page, there's a promotional video from Airdrie. In it, the farm's Bret Jones says: "Obviously, he's a Met Mile winner, which we've always viewed, and so many people viewed as one of the stallion-making races."

And maybe that's part of what is wrong with today's breeding - when a distance-challenged horse like Divine Park can be touted as a hot stallion prospect, in large part by virtue of winning the Met Mile with a final quarter of 26 3/5, passing exhausted horses who ran much too fast early. Monday's Met Mile was a similar scenario, though Bribon was a bit better, earning a Beyer of 106. He's a solid miler to be sure, but still it was a pretty grim affair in the stretch, with the winner laboring home in 25.24 after middle splits of 22.35 and 22.84. His connections have no intentions of trying him at anything but one turn distances.

There have been recent Met Mile winners who were not one-dimensional to be sure - Corinthian and Ghostzapper were proven as routers and ran dynamic Met Miles; the former earned a 108 while coming home in 24 1/5; and Ghostzapper made his final race a memorable Met with his spectacular romp in 1:33 1/5 in 2005. But a look at other recent winners - Silver Train, Pico Central, Aldebaran, Swept Overboard, and Exciting Story were all strictly sprinters and/or one-turn specialists (and, of those, only Silver Train is standing in the US). A big contrast from a peek back to the [Met Mile winners of the] 60's and 70's with proven distance horses like Forego, Cox's Ridge, State Dinner, Nodouble, In Reality, Executioner, and Buckpasser; and in earlier times, Kelso, Sword Dancer, Tom Fool, Gallant Man and Native Dancer. My, that was a versatile bunch. And indeed, some of those are familiar names in the pedigree charts. But I think that today, the notion of Met Mile as stallion producer is one that needs to change.

- There was talk before the Met Mile that it was a wide-open betting race, but I think that was false. Sure, it was an interesting, if somewhat ragtag collection of various disappointments, but, looking back - and this is more self-criticism than redboarding since I was guilty myself of buying the 'wide-open' hype - man, we should have all nailed that exacta. Bribon - Smooth Air were clearly the most likely winner and second most likely winner, in that order for a cool $32.20. Not bad at all for an easy exacta. And what the hell was up with Mr. Sidney being 6-1?

= The crowd was 10,099, which I guess isn't too bad, considering. It seems to me though that the card runs too long and far too late for a holiday such as Memorial Day. I didn't go myself; we had a BBQ planned, and why would I instead want to be at Belmont at 6PM in the dying moments of the three-day weekend? NYRA should try an early post time and get people out by 4:30. Then, I might have gone and made it an even 10,100.

More Chances

The 4th at Belmont on Monday, the state-bred Dedicated Rullah stakes, is a race in which the two morning line favorites look to me like horses to stand against at underlaid odds. Mor Chances (9-5) has been a brilliant claim indeed for Rick Dutrow (6-6-3 in 23 starts at Belmont thus far), with gaudy Beyers and gross earnings of nearly $180,000 off the 50K claim. Switches to the grass here though, where his two wins from six grass tries have come in routes. The Dutrow magic could move him up in these conditions for sure; bit scary to leave out, but I think he's worth a play against at his morning line. Rollers (5-2) has never run on grass, and hasn't been so hot on dirt either ever since a three-race winning streak last summer, losing five in a row, four of those as the favorite. Decent effort on Keeneland Poly for Tagg (31-8-7-4, 35%), good first-turf sire stats for Stormy Atlantic (14%); but a lot to ask at poor value of a horse who has never been over 4-1 in his 12 lifetime starts.

Redefined (5-1) switches to a preferred distance/surface combination - four wins and five seconds in nine six furlong grass tries - in his second off a layoff for Anthony Dutrow (1 for 17 to start the meet, 8 of those under 3-1;30% in that category). Return was a rare out-of-the-money finish for a horse usually sharp off the layoff. But instead of employing his usual stalking style, he found himself hooked on the inside with the speedy Cooper County. Jockey change here with Lezcano aboard (38% 2008-9 for this barn); return to rating tactics means possible good trip, perhaps behind the two faorites, for solid runner at decent odds. Meriweather Jessica (6-1) has won her last two off layoffs; but those were much shorter breaks, and she's in tough against the boys here. Still, worth a look at her morning line for trainer Linda Rice, highly-percentaged in all of the relavent categories.

Iffy Filly

Sounds to me as if the Belmont Stakes is going to be filly-less.

A source at Churchill told The Post, "It they do decide to go [in the Belmont], it'll be [Jackson's] decision. She came out of the Preakness pretty knocked out. Steve [Asmussen, her trainer] wants no part of the Belmont. She'd be a classic bet-against."[NY Post]

All In A Day's Claims

Quite the spending spree for owner/trainer David Jacobson at Belmont on Wednesday. In the second, he claimed Half Metal Jacket for $60,000 from trainer Paulino Ortiz; and in the 8th, he nabbed One Step Ahead for $50,000 from Levine. Not like this guy is burning up the racetrack here, though he is hitting at a perfectly fine 16% thus far this year, and thus far at the Belmont meet. Still, he's spending money like the federal government, and has never been shy about digging deep into his pockets. Unfortunately, we sometimes see the same horses running for half of what he paid for them not too long afterwards.

Trainer Ortiz may not shedding many tears about losing Half Metal Jacket here; he claimed the 4yo gelded son of Yes It's True for 25K in March. Since then, the horse ran second and first in the rich starters allowance class, and won an entry level allowance. With his second place finish yesterday, plus the claim proceeds, Half Metal Jacket had gross earnings of $131,400 under Ortiz' care in 2 1/2 months. Not too shabby at all, eh? And if he was upset, perhaps his win in the 6th with Gamblin Fever helped to soften the blow. A pretty profitable day, I'd say (especially if he bet that horse at 10-1).

- Since Dan Silver took over as NYRA's director of communications, there's been a vast improvement in...well, communications. My inbox has been filled with daily barn notes, Belmont stakes news, and detailed previews of stakes races such as the Sheepshead Bay, scheduled for the turf on Saturday amidst another shaky weekend weather forecast.

Whatsmore, much to Silver's and NYRA's credit, we're getting the bad news along with the good; a release yesterday regarding the unfortunate death of City On Line prior to the 5th race. I haven't received such information in the past regarding even higher profile incidents. The Allen Jerkens trained horse "ran loose down the tunnel leading to the paddock" and "ran into a bronze statue located at the center of the paddock." Yikes. The horse was euthanized on the spot....as was, apparently, the statue of Secretariat.

The base, which weighs more than a thousand pounds, collapsed and caused the statue to fall.
.....
The statue was a copy of the original, which was sculpted by John Skeaping in 1974 and stands now at the National Museum of Racing in Saratoga. It was moved there from Belmont in 1988. [NY Daily News]

- Chip Woolley wants a rider for Mine That Bird by Monday. Personally, I'd tell Borel to stick it and hire someone before he/she ends up on a pretender like Luv Gov or Brave Victory.

- And just a toot-my-own-horn moment here: I received an email the other day from the NY State Racing and Wagering Board announcing the resumption of LIRR service to Belmont (which apparently still has to be approved by the MTA board). There were four recipients of this particular message; in addition to yours truly, they were Ben Liebman, Bill Finley, and NY Times Albany political correspondent Danny Hakim. Little did I ever imagine when I started this thing that I would ever be included in a select group with three gentlemen as esteemed as them (though sometimes I need to put Finley in his place). So thanks again for your readership and comments; as I've always said, this site is only as good as the wisdom and knowledge that I've gained from you.

Train Not In Vain

Great news for jk and all the other rail-railbirds. The Belmont Special is back!!

Dream On

Reader RG is ready to rush Rachel Alexandra off to the breeding shed....already! Breed Rachel with Ravens Pass or Henrythenavigator? But it seems to me that Rachel is destined for a pre-arranged permanent courtship with Curlin, who of course ran behind those two in the Classic, and who is currently standing at Lane's End for $75,000. Ravens Pass is standing at Darley Ireland for €40,000, or about $54,000; while Henrythenavigator is here in the US at Ashford, for $65,000.

Another entry, along with Jess Jackson's plans to breed Superhorse, in the 'dream on' category, is Dogwood's purchase, for $485,000, of Mine That Bird's full half brother at the Timonium sale.

Campbell said the colt will be shipped to Saratoga Springs, N.Y., and will train under Todd Pletcher.

If all goes well, he could be a candidate for Triple Crown races in 2010. [Augusta Chronicle]

Right, and GM could be reopening plants, Guantanamo could be closed, and there could be slots at Aqueduct!

Tough Times

A spokesperson for Senate Majority Leader Malcolm Smith told the Saratogian:

“Senator Smith has been completely divested of any relationship to the Dorman Group for nearly a decade and as leader of the state Senate will continue to be fair and impartial throughout the bidding process."

Here, I must report that the company is actually called the Darman Group, a partner in the bid by Aqueduct Entertainment Group as you may know; the article uses the wrong name on several occasions. Seriously man, do I have to do these papers' editing for them? I'm certainly not one to talk when it comes to clean copy myself...but don't they have an editor on staff? Well, maybe not, the way things are going in the newspaper industry these days.

The spokesperson also said that the Senate Majority Leader's longtime friendship with the Rev Floyd Flake, also connected to the group, has never and will never influence any governmental decisions the senator makes. It wasn't reported as to whether this was said with a straight face.

Harbinger Capital Partners, the hedge fund which is a partner, along with MGM Mirage, in R. Donohue Peebles' bid, owns a 19% stake in the New York Times, making it the struggling paper's largest public shareholder. The fund started acquiring stock in late 2007 when the shares traded in a range between $15-20. The stock closed today at $6.63. A $500 million investment is now worth around $200 million. There were reports last week that David Geffen offered to buy the shares....or maybe it was the other way around. Like MGM, Harbinger Capital Partners does not seem to coming to the Big A table from a position of strength. The Seeking Alpha website ranks them at the top of their list of hedge fund losers, with a 60.8% depreciation of their assets over the last year.

- Finally made it to Belmont on Saturday, though I didn't stick around for the Preakness. The only big addition I saw (though I didn't case out the whole joint) was a big increase in the number of new wide screen TV monitors in the backyard, so that's a good thing.

One major change was that the music stage was moved from way in the backyard to the "Paddock Tent," right behind the grandstand. And that's a major change. The large grassy area there is prime space - sun and shade, close to the paddock and a short walk through the grandstand to the track. Whatsmore, it had always been a safe haven for those who prefer to handicap without music of greatly varying quality blaring in their ears. I would guess that not everyone is happy about this (including the Rasta guys who used the space as Spleef Central).

Personally, I don't mind having the further reaches of the backyard as a quiet space. But on Saturday, the band wasn't bad at all as far as those things go, so I was hanging out there for awhile. I sensed big trouble on the way though. Since the band included a keyboard player, I knew to expect the worst. And indeed, it came at around 3 PM, in the form of You May Be Right. In retrospect, instead of quickly seeking shelter. I should have jumped on stage, grabbed the mic, and sang that song to everyone who thought I was crazy regarding Rachel Alexandra. (Neither the band nor Billy Joel appeared that night at the No Fun Fest.)

No Fun

Went out to see some music, so to speak, on Saturday night; it was the second of three nights of No Fun Fest 2009, at the Music Hall of Williamsburg in Brooklyn. And that was rather appropriate, because it was no fun for me to watch Rachel Alexandra win the Preakness. At least I didn't drop a bundle on the race since I never came up with any strong opinion....other than she was gonna get beat. But it's not particularly fun to have to admit to being wrong, as assertive as I was with my opinion, not only about the race, but about what it might do for the sport in terms of publicity. I knew I was incorrect about the latter as soon as I saw the banner headline about the race on the front page of the Post on Saturday morning.

Having said that though, I would still argue that, with Mine That Bird having proven rather conclusively that his Derby win was no fluke, and the compelling nature of a rematch in the Belmont notwithstanding, there would be significantly more excitement about a potential Triple Crown winner than the silly 'battle of the sexes' angle that NYRA and NTRA will have to rely on. (And, in what is my own anecdotal test, whereas several workmates came up to me after the Derby, I haven't gotten a single 'how about that filly' today.)

This being New York City, all three nights of No Fun Fest 2009, dedicated to the musical genre of extreme noise, were sold out, including the two nights I did not attend, neither of which were headlined by NYC legends Sonic Youth, as was the case on Saturday. In keeping with the spirit of the affair, the band deferred to, well, noise, and did not preview any songs from their forthcoming new album (on Matador!), The Eternal, due to be released on the Tuesday after Mine That Bird gets his revenge at Belmont. Other highlights included another personal fave, Philadelphia's venerable Bardo Pond, who I hadn't had the pleasure of seeing live for the better part of the current decade, along with Yellow Tears and Pedestrian Deposit.

This stuff is not for everyone I know, and not all of it works; but even then, I for one can fully appreciate those who not only break the mold of the insipid pap which passes for popular music these days, but, quite literally in some cases, smashes it to bits. When done right, it can be entrancing and captivating, and beautifully intricate and precise in its own way. And, not to mention, a perfect soundtrack for the times (and for the daily subway slog to and from work).

So, if I'm so open minded about that kind of stuff, why is it that I wasn't at all regarding Rachel Alexandra being in the Preakness? After all, I've often written about how today's trainers have become far too formulaic, trapped as they are by the current fad of light racing schedules and, in some cases, bound by irrational fears. "Damn it Toddster, give that Dunkirk some races!" I'd advised. Jess Jackson's move to change course and start her on short rest broke the mold; it was bold and daring, especially coming so soon after the disaster which roiled the sport last year. (And, by the way, where the fuck is William C. Rhoden when things go right???)

So what the hell was my problem? I guess it was just the connections themselves. In my mind, Rachel Alexandra went from a charming and inspirational story of connections with modest backgrounds lucking into a once in a lifetime freak to a $10 million story of corporate sloth. Kinda like if some lame corporate-"punk" band like Fall Out Boy did an album of Stooges covers. Contrived, phony, and with only the bottom line in mind.

And I still tend to believe that was indeed the case. Of course, it matters no more, because now the story is the horse, who transcended my fears - and I was truly afraid for the filly and for the sport - and raced into history. Easy to say now that those fears were unfounded. And this post is not intended to signal that I've been won over and will be leading the cheers three weeks hence. In fact, a reader emailed to suggest that Mine That Bird's connections pick up a rabbit or two to run her into the ground, and that seems like a great idea! :-)

But in any event, I was certainly wrong. I put my opinions out there for better or for worse, and sometimes they don't work out. I'm not at all embarrassed. But it's no fun.

- Just to show that there are no not that many hard feelings, this track from Sonic Youth's seminal double LP (remember those?) Daydream Nation is hereby dedicated to the 2009 Preakness champ.