A Few Things

A few things:

We went to the reception for the Aqueduct Murals on Saturday night.  I've been at the Big A too many times to even speculate on the number, and can't recall a more interesting, unusual, and bizarre visit.  Interesting because the art is quite fantastic.  Not gonna post photos here (except for one, below) because you can see them elsewhere and I have other things to get to in the short time before we all get gobbled up by the holiday.  The three-sided piece by Chris Stain is worth the price of admission getting there itself.  Located in what was previously the grim passageway to the racino side behind the paddock, it's an epic three-sided work that is poignant and powerful, inviting one in to become part of the grand history of the sport that it evokes, as if its better days were not so long ago.

Unusual because when's the last time you were at an art opening, complete with DJ and a wine/beer bar (two drinks for a nominal contribution of $5 to benefit the TAKE2 Second Career Thoroughbred Program) on the first floor of the Big A?  Nice wine too, with a generous pour.  And there was a vodka and scotch tasting to boot!  

Bizarre because the track was also open for the late night simulcasting.  So there was an odd mixture of the hardest of hardcore horseplayers, along with the artsy crowd.  I saw some who were obviously there for the event wandering warily amongst the betting crowd to see the murals; and a few bettors taking advantage of a rare good deal on alcohol.  But mostly the groups kept comfortably to themselves, not quite sure what to make of each other.  A NYRA official told me that there was discussion of shutting down the simulcasting, but that he would have none of that!  Great decision.  It added a bit of a performance art aspect to the affair!

 - On the same night, the first racing program was conducted at the new Meadowlands grandstand, and an overflow crowd of 15,000 packed the joint!  Made for some hassles getting in from what I've read; the parking lot seemed small and people apparently had to shuttle bus over from the other side.  People seemed impressed with the Victory Sports Bar and Nightclub, which wasn't open when I was there last Friday.  As I mentioned, it was no frills, first-floor only for the simulcast, so I have an open mind for a night of live racing, especially when the rooftop lounge is open next spring.  I read one customer comment about the outdoor seating - 1,800 of them according to this guy - and how they will go to waste during the cold weather months.  If that number is true - and there did seem to be quite a bit - and the total seating capacity is 2,200, that doesn't leave many seats from which to watch the races live during the winter.

But I have an open mind, as I've said, and I'm looking forward to checking it out.  (I'll probably have to book a table at the fancy-schmanciest restaurant choice in order to get the Head Chef there on the racing nights while they're limited to Fri-Sat.)

 - It seemed that everyone on Twitter was all-a-twitter over the piece that owner/breeder Arthur Hancock III wrote last week for The Paulick Report. If you missed it, here it is.  In brief, Hancock calls for the federal government to get with the program and, exercising its power to regulate interstate commerce (as per the out-of-state simulcasting permitted by the Insterstate Horseracing Act) crack down on abusers, as they did with Michael Vick for engaging in dog fighting.  I think I got that right, yes? This appeal was in conjunction with the annual exercise of industry folks appearing before a House Committee and begging to be regulated by the federal government, as if they are unwilling, unable, or just disinclined to do something themselves about drugs, and, worse yet, as if federal regulation would be some kind of magic elixir that would make the cheaters disappear.

OK, four points on Hancock's piece.  First of all, other than the fact that they both involve animals, I don't really see an analogy between dog fighting, an illegal exercise of, by nature, deliberate cruelty and intended death to an animal beloved and treasured as a family pet by tens of millions, and cheating by a distinct minority involved in the legal sport of horse racing.  I mean, if you equivocate the two, then maybe you should be reading a PETA blog instead of this one.  Secondly, if Hancock is trying to make the point that federal regulation has brought relief to these animals beyond the single, high-profile arrest he cites, then you should Google "dog fighting" under 'News' and see how totally out of control the practice apparently is.

Third, Tom Noonan points out in his latest post that the arrests at Penn National by federal agents is really exactly what Hancock is calling for - a federal prosecution of suspected drug cheaters by virtue of the interstate commerce clause of the IHA.  So maybe he didn't have to spend the time writing it.

Finally, and worst of all, is this:

According to the New York Times, every week in the United States, 24 Thoroughbred horses die while racing and countless others are broken down and maimed for the rest of their lives because they are being drugged to enhance their performance.

Ah yes.  The already well-worn New York Times' 24-a-week stat.  The funny thing about that statistic is the way that number has become a mantra of sorts, both for the Times and for those who cite it to make a point.....while what has apparently been forgotten in the 20 months since the first of the Death and Disarray articles, is that the Times compiled breakdown information based on terms searched for in chart comments, including those like "vanned off" and "lame" that don't necessarily mean death or serious injury.  I don't know if the Times has ever been exactly clear what the 24 is based on.

But in any event, hasn't anyone ever done a basic reality check on that number?  I haven't seen one.  It's easy to do, we can do it right here.  I counted 85 race cards from last Saturday through Friday (not counting Woodbine, you don't get to play!);  I'll round that up to 90, figuring that some tracks that normally run on Thursday don't on Thanksgiving.  Let's say that the cards average nine races of eight horse fields - which I'd guess is an overestimation, but let's do that to be conservative relative to my point.  That's 72 horses times 90 cards = 6,480 horses.  If 24 of those die, that makes the rate 1 in 270 starts.  That's as opposed to the 2 in 1000 starts statistic which I think is generally accepted as a ballpark figure - 1.92 in 1000 was the 2012 rate according to the Jockey Club.  1 in 270 translates to 3.7 in 1,000, which is almost twice the Jockey Club's number.

So I'm calling bullshit on the Times and their 24-a-week stat, and I welcome anyone to prove me wrong, I'd be happy to acknowledge that if so.  And people like Arthur Hancock III, as well-intentioned as he may be, are spreading misinformation when they cite it as fact.  I know that there are those who root Drape on, think he's a crusader for cleaning up the sport.  You won't think he's so great when you're watching some government hearing on banning horse racing and people are testifying how the Times says that 24 horses a week die while racing.  Think I'm exaggerating (or being hysterical)?  Yes, I am.  But it's a valid point that misinformation in the New York Times is capable of leading to consequences profoundly worse that horses getting doped.

 - And finally, and as long as I'm crabby, here's an article about the situation in Saratoga, where, as we've reported, opponents of a casino at the harness track are well-organized and armed with what they consider to be a mandate from the clear defeat of the casino referendum in the city of Saratoga Springs.  However, Saratoga Raceway principal James Featherstonawilsonhaughsmithandwessonstein seems unimpressed.  And undaunted:

"We believe we have the best site: historically, economically, socially and in every other way in our region.....And we expect with the help of our friends and colleagues in Saratoga and in consultation with the community to make a bid that brings the casino license to our facility." [Albany Times Union]

Well, there's a big flip of the bird to the voters and the community there. As I've been saying, this thing is in the bag for the Saratoga harness track by virtue of a backroom deal between Cuomo and the NYGA, and it will take quite a tide of opposition to undo what already is done if this guy is not interested in how the community feels.  Have a great Thanksgiving everyone.

Partial Review for Partially Opened Meadowlands

I checked out the new Meadowlands grandstand on Friday afternoon. There was no live racing of course - that resumes on Saturday night.  It was really weird being on the other side of the racetrack like that, facing the stadium and the old grandstand, slated to be demolished after the Super Bowl.  And it will be weirder I'm sure when I get back there for some live racing.

As for the building, only the first floor simulcast area was open.  It was fine.  It actually reminded me a lot of the original, especially on nights/days when I would go for simulcasting and only the first floor would be open, and everyone would be packed in there.  Same vibe, just smaller and spiffier; with familiar looking features like the Raceworld room with the individual workspaces with TVs - not $3 well-spent on my part, as I was wedged between two idiots - an open-air teletheater, a food court, a bar, a little studio for the simulcast hosts; except all compressed compared to the original.  It's highly functional to be sure, with plenty of TVs, betting windows/machines (the betting machines are definitely not new), and seating, both indoors and outside.  There was a fancy looking restaurant not yet open, and more dining options on the upper floors which will open with live racing.  Coming in the spring is a rooftop lounge and an outdoor area with a music stage.

I certainly didn't think it was anything special, at least what I saw on that one floor.  I'd have taken more pictures, but there isn't really much more to it.  It's a track.  Think there would have to be more to it upstairs if it's really going to be something to attract people to come to the races, as Gural intends.  Having said that, I suppose the idea of a new structure at a racetrack that's actually totally devoted to racing is a bit of a novelty these days.  Sure beats that mess at Gulfstream.

I go to these simulcasting palaces ready to plunge into all the action but often end up just overwhelmed by all the different tracks going on.  So the best I can say is that I didn't lose close to my whole bankroll for the weekend.   Ended up betting more harness races than thoroughbreds.   Had one really close call/tough beat, in the 12th at the Meadows, boxed the 1-3 exacta, and it came in 1-2-3, with my horse falling short by a long head.  I swear, I bet the race with zero minutes to post, and the 1 was 5-1.  But by the time the race actually went off, the 1 had soared to 14-1, and I didn't have a win bet.  That'll teach me to bet that early.  Really have to watch the exacta pools for a hint at what the ultimate win odds will be at these tracks with so little money in the win pool.

Saratoga Residents Hoping for a Big SAVE

Voters in Saratoga County voted against the referendum and now there's an active grass roots movement in Saratoga Springs opposing the siting of a casino at the harness track.  (Which of course already has a racino which is almost a casino.)

SAVE is the rather contrived acronym (Saratogians Against Vegas-Style Expansion), and here's their website.  Here, they cite the usual concerns; most significantly to me in this particular case considering that there is already gaming and entertainment there, the worry that converting the racino into a grand "destination," complete with a hotel and even more dining and entertainment options, will damage businesses in downtown Saratoga and forever alter the nature of the 'historic' town.  

Local establishments in Iowan cities couldn't compete with casino subsidized drinks, meals and hotel rooms, taxable retail sales in Iowa cities without casinos grew more than five times faster than sales in cities with casinos, leading researchers to conclude, “the operation of a casino in a mid-size city, far from contributing to economic development, creates a measurable drain on the economy of the city.”

They also point to neighboring Massachusetts, where individual localities get to decide on their own fate (which didn't help the voters of East Boston, who rejected a casino at Suffolk Downs, since that track straddles two voting districts and the other one approved); emphasizing that voters in the city of Saratoga Springs rejected the referendum by an even higher margin (57 to 43) than did the overall county (54 to 46).

Opponents gathered at a meeting on Monday to express their concerns.  All of this must be causing consternation for the Saratoga Casino and Raceway owner James Featherstonberghaughsteinamatoberg, the head of NYGA, which ultimately agreed to support the referendum.  I've long speculated here that he helped seal the deal for a casino at the harness track in a backroom deal in exchange for the organization's tacit support.  Local opposition could surely throw a wrench into his plans, though it doesn't guarantee anything.

  But Saratoga's 27,000 residents can't stop a casino. That's because when Gov. Andrew Cuomo and the Legislature crafted the law they refused to provide a local veto — common in states like Massachusetts, where two communities rejected casinos last week.

The law does say casino operators seeking a license must win "public support in the host and nearby communities," which could take the form of local laws, putting the question of support in the hands of elected officials, or through public comment. [AP]

Already, the opposition has led to the cancellation of a vote by Saratoga County leaders to endorse a casino.   But supporters of a casino will be able to state their case at a forum in Saratoga Springs on December 16.

The effort in Saratoga is the kind of groundswell of opposition that we just didn't hear about prior to the vote. I wonder if we would have seen such movements in NYC if casinos were imminent here instead of [supposedly, ha ha] seven years away. I also wonder if Mayor-Elect Bill de Blasio still would have said he was in favor.  As I pointed out in this post, I think the concept of casinos is a contradiction of his main talking point of income inequality and the "tale of two cities."  But he was able to keep a low profile on the issue, and came out quietly in favor, no doubt in part to curry favor with the governor from whom he'll need support to pass the tax increases that he seeks.

About a half hour south of Saratoga, the city council of Rensallaer, where county voters narrowly approved the referendum, voted unanimously in favor of building one on the waterfront.

 - Yes, I'm old enough to remember.  I was in elementary school, and I recall being dismissed early without an explanation.  I recall the sight of the yellow school buses all lined up to take us home.  I recall being on the bus amidst the usual din of kids at the end of a school day, amplified in this case by the unexpected early end to the day.  And then I remember - quite vividly, as if....and I know we're reading this phrase a lot today....it just happened yesterday, the bus driver turning around and shouting: "Can we please be quiet and have a little respect!  President Kennedy was just killed!"  And I remember the silence as we headed home.  It's the only memory whatsoever that I have of whatever school that was.

Queens Losing And Gaining a Street Art Canvas

This is a link to the Artists page on the Aqueduct Murals site.  There you can read about the artists who will be creating murals on the walls of the first floor, and see some of their work.  Obviously, this is quite a serious art event.

Chris Stein

Seems just completely out of left field as a marketing event by NYRA, totally out of the box.  Very excited to check it out.  (And this is the website of the curator, Joe Iurato.)

Faith47

In addition to the novelty of the event, interesting that it corresponds to the developments at the 5POINTZ site in Long Island City just a couple of blocks away from the office.  If you're not familiar, 5POINTZ is a building on which the owner has allowed graffiti artists to ply their trade freely for years, with quite stunning and distinctive results.  But now, he wants to cash in and construct luxury apartment towers.  Yeah, I'm all for art and free expression, and who needs another luxury apartment tower around here; but honestly find it hard to find to argue much.  It's his building after all.  In what the artists claim was an attempt to nullify their efforts to have the building declared a landmark, he had it painted over on Monday night.  I was there for an event a few months ago and this was just a partial view, just a tiny sliver of the canvas.

I walked over yesterday and this is the sad scene.

So, Queens is losing a cool street art site, but gaining what looks like will be another one, albeit indoors.  The buildings however may very well be facing similar futures.  The fate of 5POINTZ is now quite clear.  The fate of Aqueduct is not, but we all suspect that the future is not rosy.

However, as I said yesterday, the racing there has been superb, and the 7th is another inscrutable betting race, with a field of ten (which I personally find to be a perfect field size).  A couple of interesting contenders from trainer Linda Rice, both of whom about she's thought highly enough to reacquire after losing them at the claim box.   Quick Money (6-1), who she retook from Jacobson last winter, comes off a couple of disappointing efforts on dirt after a series of mostly good grass efforts. I'm willing to excuse the race two back because it came on a muddy surface which was favoring speed.  In his last, he dueled inside of a quick pace and faded to 5th.  That effort came after just 20 days, and this six-year old seems to prefer some longer spacing than that at this point in his career, which has spanned 42 starts.  Gets 40 days before this one, with a crisp half-mile work a week ago. Also switches back to jockey Cornelio Velasquez, who has ridden him with ample success in the past. The TimeformUS Pace Projector shows him again vying for the lead, in a race labeled 'Favors Horse On/Near Early Lead; and while I don't necessarily expect/hope for that to be the case for a horse who has done best stalking, and in a race with no clear early speed type, he has back figures well fast enough to take this and would represent good value at his morning line.  [UPDATE: Quick Money is scratched.]

The other Linda Rice entry is Wee Freudian (5-1), who she just claimed back after losing him for one race to Bruce Levine.  The latter barn has been ice cold around here of late, so just the re-change of scenery may do him good coming off a disappointing try at 5-2 for Levine.  Having tried him unsuccessfully on grass before losing him temporarily, Ms. Rice now switches him back to dirt.  His efforts on the main track at the Big A have been uniformly excellent; last two on the oval came last winter, earning TFUS figures against better horses that would handily beat this field.  Can't really decide which one of these I like better; will watch the tote and check out the exacta will pays.  Non Stop (8-1) has been quite keen since being claimed by David Cannizzo.  Majestic Number (3-1) is the Jacobson claim and the one to beat.  Best of luck and have a great day.

Tale of Two Tracks

OK, I'm back, will try to keep up better.  Been busy with life and work, and been writing a semi-regular feature for the latter called Today in Racing over at the TimeformUS blog.

We were also in Florida last week.  Visited my daughter in school in Miami and then we drove across the state to my mom's place near Sarasota, where we hung in mid-80's temperatures for a few days, nice!  On the way, we stopped at Gulfstream Park.  It was the first time I was there since the real Gulfstream was razed and replaced by order of Frank Stronach, and I wrote about that, as well as the late Paul Moran, in a Today in Racing post last week.  As I'm sure I've mentioned numerous times, Gulfstream held a special place in my heart; I'd say that only Saratoga ranks higher in my esteem, and that only because it's Saratoga.  Made regular trips there way way back in the day, and then, after an absence of about ten years, made annual pilgrimages up until its final year in 2004 (Cyndi Lauper was the last of the backyard concerts I was there for)

But I swear, I really did go back with an open mind.  It's been nearly a decade now, and I was in the mood for a little racing action in the middle of a non-racing trip.  The first sign of trouble was when we happened upon the paddock.  I always thought it looked kinda cool and classy on TV, but I found it contrived and tacky, and not because it's located in the middle of a shopping center, Frank's ploy to attract ordinary citizens to come and play the slots, oh, I mean, horses.  The black rubber "walking ring" didn't help.  The highlight was seeing Serling's mug on the big simulcast screen overhead!

It really didn't get better from there once we went out front.  I know people who like the place.  None of them had ever been to the original, so they don't have perfection to compare it with, as I do.  So I know they simply can't relate to my experience.  But I can't really understand how anyone could think it's a good track to go to, unless you prefer to watch all the races on TV, in which case the simulcast room seemed like a lively place.  Precisely as I'd read, there are very few places where you can really see the races.  The apron is so narrow, constricted in length, and close to the racetrack surface (the Head Chef was excited that she was so close to the starting gate) that you're practically watching a head-on shot for most of the stretch run.  I guess if you nab one of the small number of seats, it could be OK for the day, but it's still not a great perspective.

Worse yet, and maybe because it's not yet the prime winter racing season, it was just glum and depressing.  It was pretty empty outside on a perfect weather day.  The beach bar area was closed - it looks like it could be cool, as long as you're just watching races on TV.  The racing was dull; a full card of Florida-bred stakes races, which made me better appreciate NY-bred races.  (Though maybe the action picked up, as I only lasted about an hour.)  I was reminded for some reason of a mid-1970's visit to Buffalo Raceway, which was the last time I was so profoundly depressed by a racetrack visit.  And I snapped at the Head Chef when she dared to suggest that it wasn't so bad.

When I posted on Twitter from the sad scene, Pete Fornatale, writing a column these days on handicapping contests for our good friends at the Daily Racing Form, responded: Am I exaggerating to say imagine if they replaced Saratoga with Aqueduct?  To which I responded that that was an insult to Aqueduct, where at least there's an entire clubhouse devoted to racing, and an apron from which you can actually watch the races, even on the casino side.

I've been to the Big A three times already since it opened for the big fall-winter-spring meet (it's all one

big meet to me), and hardly a surprise I'm sure when I report that there is next to nothing new to report on its physical condition.  Looks like they might have improved the lighting on the first floor.  The second floor is now completely sealed off from the racino.  And, towards the back of that second floor.....where the Longshots bar/simulcast spot is supposed to be built, it's sealed off and quiet; no sign of construction.  Signs for the old haunting spots that used to be there are poignant reminders of better days, even the ones of recent years when they showed the signs of wear, tear, and neglect.

The last I heard regarding completion of Longshots is some indefinite date in 2014, but even that is starting to feel like a longshot.  Surely wouldn't be a surprise if it's never built given the uncertainty over Aqueduct's future.  I would think that the great governor of our state, and the master of the New York Racing Association, could use his office and influence to help persuade a company seeking a casino license from the state to do us this one favor; just this one little itty bitty thing for the racetrack which they pledged so sincerely to be a good neighbor to.  C'mon, guys.  Please?

Well, the racing has been consistently fabulous, anyway.  Full, competitive fields, and the turf course holding up great as we move into late November, handling three or four races a day.  Great stuff.

And the first floor is actually about to get a makeover of sorts, in the form of 'street art' murals to be painted on the walls.  Aqueduct Murals opens to the public on Saturday.  What that means for anyone attending the races between now and then, I'm not sure, and I don't intend to find out.  There's a reception from 6 until 10 that evening, and it sure would have been nice if it could have been held at a cool new bar at the back of the second floor.

 - Jeff Gural has already broken ground on an expansion at Tioga Downs, one which be even expand-ier should his track get a casino license.  Gural bristled at a potential competing bid in the immediate area: “I put a lot of time, effort and money into getting Proposition 1 passed."  Well, for one thing, I don't think he really did.  More significantly, Gural's indignation and sense of entitlement hints at the backroom quid pro quo between the NYGA and the state with respect to the former not opposing the referendum that we all suspect.

Orb Goes Bye-Bye

Yeah, I flaked on doing picks for Saturday's Breeders' Cup, sorry, whatever, I didn't really like anyone anyway.  I wrote about how happy I am that it's all over at the TimeformUS blog.

In all the many years I've been writing this blog, I don't know if I've ever been more right about a horse than I was about Otb.  Not that that's necessarily saying that much; and indeed, I was convinced, prior to and in the immediate aftermath of his Derby win, that he would win the Triple Crown, which I don't think I ever put in writing here.

Nonetheless, I had him in the Derby.  I did like him in the Preakness though didn't bet him at 3-5. Afterwards, I bought the excuse that he was trapped on the worst part of the track, and I credited Oxbow for a better performance than some others did.  But I soured on him as the Belmont approached, and cleverly used him only at the very bottom of my winning trifecta tickets.  A few weeks later, I wrote that he won't win another race this year.  Probably somewhere I wrote, or at least thought, that he'd be retired before he ever won another race.

So, now, Orb has indeed been retired.  Used to be that owners would at least offer some lame excuse, usually in the form of a minor injury, to justify a retirement which has no justification from a sporting sense. But, that is surely no longer the case.

"He is sound, looks about as good as he ever has in life, if not better," McGaughey said by phone. "They just felt like it was the right time to maybe retire a young horse to go to stud.
......
"The decision to retire Orb was made with mixed emotions," Janney said in the press release announcing the retirement to Claiborne. "While I believe he would have had a very successful 4-year-old campaign, and Phipps Stable and I would have loved being a part of that, Orb is a wonderful stallion prospect." [USA Today]

I have to say that I thought that Shug was different from the rest, and that he wouldn't sacrifice this horse's long-term prospects in an attempt at Triple Crown glory.  But I guess I was wrong.  Well, it's too bad - I was especially looking forward to betting against him in the Cigar Mile - but we're used to it, and what does it matter anyway?  Would take an extreme change of culture to keep these horses racing and produce the kind of long-running rivalries that are a relic from the past.  We don't really even hear the "keep the stars on the track" mantra much anymore, mostly because of its sheer futility I suppose. And what difference does it make anyway, when network coverage is virtually non-existent (we'll see what the FOX broadcasts do next year), the entire post-Triple Crown season is reduced to a prep by the BC, and the ultimate showdown takes place on a freak show of a dirt track at a time on a Saturday night when nobody is watching.

 - In the 4th at Aqueduct today,  In the Beat (5-1) looks to rebound off a poor effort at Parx for trainer Bruce Levine.  This barn struggled at Belmont, but did pop a winner at 13-1 here the other day, so perhaps some better fortune is in store.  Claimed four races back, In the Beat gets some class relief here after a futile effort on turf, a close third after a wide trip chasing better at Monmouth, and the fast-paced Parx race for
which I'm willing to give him a pass; winner Red Doctober would be a distinct favorite against these.  Gelded son of Street Sense has some good numbers at this six furlong distance on dirt, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts a fast pace into which In the Beat (#1) should be in good position to close into.  Running Tap (5-1) looks to be the best of the speeds, and trainer Steve Klesaris has good numbers second time with the barn.  Be tough if he can shake loose.  Dan and Sheila (15-1) tries a distance as short as six furlongs for the first time, but has some good back figures and good liven up the exotics.  Best of luck and have a great day.

Breeders' Cup Friday

Forget about the Marathon, hopefully that race will go the way of the Juvenile Sprint (though my buddy Bob probably disagrees).  Though, that would bring the number of races down to an unlucky 13, so they'd have to get rid of the Turf Sprint to make it an even dozen.  (Though the Turf Sprint does provide a nice break to run out to the store or something.)

After the Marathon, we get two impossible head scratchers and, in my judgment, one, or two, potential singles.  So I'll try to build a ticket for the Pick Three or Four.

The two inscrutable races are the two-year old turf races.  I've always thought those to be impossible, but must say they make a bit more sense this year.  I disclosed my involvement in TimeformUS here, so I'm obviously biased.  But the speed figures on the same scale for foreign and US races, along with the detailed race comments, are shedding new light on the Euro shippers that help make these races so difficult.  I'll preview some of that info here, but I'll get yelled at if I give away the store; and besides, it's still just $1.50 per card.  And if you haven't tried it yet, send me an email and I can set you up with a cheap one-time trial plan that will get you both BC cards and unlimited access to all the other tracks on Friday and Saturday.

OK, sorry about the shameless plugging.  So let's start with the 7th, the Juvenile Turf.  The interesting thing about the horses coming over from Great Britain and Ireland is that they have raced strictly over straightaways.  They haven't gone around one turn, not to mention the two they'll go around here for the mile race.  However, such invaders have won this race all three times it's been run at Santa Anita.  Giovanni Boldini (7-2) is the leading contender of the four who have never raced here.  He earned a field high TimeformUS speed figure of 97 winning his last; but that was on Poly.  Son of War Front has won twice in two tries on that surface, and ran third in his one try on turf, with a TFUS of 89, and has a moderate TFUS pedigree rating for turf routes.  Can't find any of his races on You Tube to evaluate him.  However, he's very highly regarded by the Timeform guys in the UK, so I'm gonna use him.  Outstrip (4-1) won a Group 2 two races back, but ran third in his last.  The race commentary opines that he "might well have peaked already" and that he "lacks size and scope," so I'm going to stand against.  Wilshire Boulevard (8-1) has already raced seven times, which could be a blessing or a curse.  He's only made moderate progress of late, but seems dangerous enough to consider.  Shamshon (12-1) looks to be slower than these.

Morning line favorite Bobby's Kitten (5-2) comes off his easy, though perfect trip-aided, Pilgrim win at Saratoga, earning a fig of 95.  What can you say; trainer Chad Brown scores 100 in most of the relevant TFUS trainer ratings, as does the trainer/jockey combo of he and Castellano.  He's projected to be on the early lead by the Pace Projector, and surely goes on the ticket.  I prefer Bashart (6-1) though from a value standpoint.  Yes, he has a bad post, and the Toddster is not always a great asset come Breeders' Cup time.  However, he figures to get a nice stalking trip according to Pace Projector (which doesn't include the foreign horses (since they have no pace data), none of whom are frontrunners by trade, though you never know for sure), perhaps like the one he got when he graduated against a strong maiden field at Saratoga in August.  He also showed some moxie in his last, which was on the Poly at Keeneland.  Pinched back early down the backstretch, he was a full four wide around the turn, battled on to get the lead late before getting run down by the ground-saving Poker Player (12-1).  Think he'll run very well here if Johnny V can indeed get decent position early from the 13 post.

Longshot I keep coming back to is Ontology (30-1).  Maybe he's listed that high because he's still a maiden.  But in his only turf try, this son of Tapit, out of a minor turf stakes winning daughter King of Kings (Sadlers Wells), ran very well in an overnight stakes at Del Mar; after some early traffic trouble, he closed well to be clearly second best, with a competitive figure of 87, to Diamond Bachelor, who would be a contender here if he wasn't, for some reason, running in the Juvenile instead.  Forget the last on dirt for Ontology; series of sharp workouts replicates the pattern leading up that grass effort.  Think he'll outrun his odds, and worth a couple of bucks win and place.

Aotearoa (12-1) actually beat Diamond Bachelor in their last efforts, but the latter earned a better TFUS fig in defeat due to the pace scenario (these speed figures take pace into account), as the winner benefited from a fast pace and a nice trip.  Still, it was his first grass effort, and worth including on a B ticket.

So, for this I'll use (in order of preference)  Bashart / Giovanni Boldini / Ontology / Bobby's Kitten.    Wilshire Boulevard and Aotearoa for the B tickets.

The Dirt Mile, always one of my favorite races, looks to have a lot of speed this year.  Now, I'm thinking back to last year when there was a ridiculous speed bias, and getting a little queasy.  But I'm told by a reliable Santa Anita observer who I trust implicitly that these one mile races have produced winners of all styles this year.  (Though, as we know, that doesn't guarantee that the track won't be souped up for speed for these big race days.)  With a short run to the turn, the distance can beget a mad dash there, I am told.  In this race, you have a whole bunch of horses with early zip - Taptowne breaking from the inside, Fed Biz, Broadway Empire and the blinkered Alpha from the middle, along with Verrazano, the hilarious 3-1 morning line favorite, and Goldencents from the outside.  Fed Biz and Goldencents come off sprints in which they closed, but they are both reliably close to the pace when it comes to two turn routes.  I think most, if not of all these horses, have good incentive to be in a forward position and not too wide into the first turn, and the others figure to benefit.

So, with that in mind, I like Brujo de Ollares (8-1).  This Uruguayan sensation (though actually a Brazilian bred) was a big disappointment when first brought here by Team Valor in 2012.  But this year has been a different story.  He came off a 287-day layoff to run a tough second at seven furlongs at Parx, a neck off one tough horse in Traffic Light, and ahead of the persistent Hello Lover.  Then came a facile two-turn mile win against moderate competition at Delaware.  In his last effort, the Grade 2 Kelso at Belmont, he was part of a merry chase of Graydar, who had everything his own way on the front end, riding the gold rail, and setting pedestrian fractions - a half of 47 seconds which is very moderate for a high-class one turn mile race.  Brujo de Ollares also found himself three wide for most of the sweeping Belmont turn.  That's bad enough even if the rail wasn't the only place to be that day; and he still closed grimly and distinctly against the pace grain to make it a close race.  I thought it was an exceptional effort from a horse who seems to be on the upgrade, earning a 113 TFUS fig, the best of his career.

Couple of concerns - one that he could regress off that effort.  But he's working great for this race....notice how the regimen is exactly the same as that leading up to the Kelso, three works a week apart with the last one exactly a week before the race.  You know I like stuff like that.

Also, he'll be stretching back out to two turns.  He did win that race at Delaware two back.  It was visually impressive, though it wasn't that fast.  His prior winning efforts have all been around one.  Still, I think he'll be great value here, surely wouldn't be surprised if he's double digit odds, and that seems worthwhile for a horse coming off an effort I found so impressive.

Hymn Book (15-1) closed to finish only a neck behind the top pick in the Kelso.  I had him, and he never looked like a winner.  I thought he was spinning his wheels approaching the stretch at a point at which he should have been progressing, and then he made up ground late.  Think the race looks better on paper than it did visually.  Also, Hymn Book has never won, in ten tries, on a fast dirt track (he's finished second five times).  So, I think he'll be a bit short again, but he's surely worth using underneath.  Pants on Fire (6-1)  has come on in his last two races, beating Hymn Book soundly at Monmouth before tracking a fast pace and sticking around to win the Ack Ack around one turn at Churchill...earning career high TFUS figs of 112 and 113 in the process.  He should also benefit from a fast pace and I expect him to run well.  Goldencents (4-1) won the Santa Anita Derby over this track with a 118 fig, and he's run very fast in his last two races, albeit in sprints (and one on Poly).  He's certainly talented enough to win if he can deal tactically; perhaps the experience coming off the pace in sprints will help.

If Verrazano wins, I'm done for the rest of the weekend.  I'm serious.  He will be galloping straight to stud at Coolmore Ashford in Kentucky after the race, and the Toddster assures us he can stay the 1,867 mile distance.

I'm singling Brujo de Ollares here.

In the Juvenile Fillies Turf.......oh man.  Have to make some tough decisions here in an impossibly wide open 14 horse field.  I'm against My Conquestadory (9-2), at least from a win bet perspective from the treacherous 14 post.  She's good, no doubt.  But I don't think she's quite as good as track announcer Kurt Becker made it seem during the stretch run of the Alcibiades.  She did beat males in a Grade 2 at Woodbine in her career debut, on the turf.  But the race came up kinda slow - a 75 fig and the TFUS class rating was a tepid 67.  (Though third place finisher Matador did come back to win a restricted stakes on a yielding course.)  In the Alcibiades....yes she looked hopelessly blocked along the rail heading around the turn.  But, after Becker pointed out that situation, she extracted herself in the two path rather easily, and actually had a relatively smooth journey from there.  So, was she good?  You bet.  "INCREDIBLE," as Becker exclaimed?  Don't know about that.  But she'll surely get bet if people have listened to that call!  (And the race was on Poly too.)  I dunno, thinking out loud here, I'm tempted to leave her off the Pick Three or Four ticket too.  Just for fun.  Gotta make some tough decisions as I said.

For one thing, all three Euro invaders look tough and I'm gonna use all of them, even though the Timeform chaps express some doubts about the ability of Vorda (4-1) to stretch out from six furlongs to this mile route.  I wrote about her in more detail (verbal and visual) in this post on the TFUS blog.  Still, she's a granddaughter of the great miler Lure, an all-time favorite of mine who was infertile at stud and doesn't have many stallion sons around.  She has the top figure in the race (95), and I'm going to include her.  Al Thakhira (6-1) and Chriselliam (6-1) both come in off sharp efforts and are highly regarded by those in the know; the latter seems prone to throw in bad ones, but is proven at the one mile distance (though, again, down a straightaway).

Kitten Kaboodle (12-1) had an almost perfect rail trip when she destroyed the field in the Jessamine.  She was in a bit of a tight spot rounding the turn, but Alan Garcia backed off very confidently before rolling up the inside to win by six against a field of uncertain quality.  Got an OK figure of 82, and obviously is eligible to improve for trainer Chad Brown.  Johnny V hops aboard, and that combo as a trainer/jockey rating of 100 too.  I'm not getting beat by a Ramsey horse here, using her.  (But not Granny Mc's Kitten, who seems too slow.)

Street Sailing (15-1) looks a little scary coming off a win at this distance in her turf debut, at Keeneland,  and for the same connections as Brujo de Ollares.  At this point, I hope those connections are celebrating.  She earned a competitive TFUS figure of 86.  But she did have a perfect trip in an allowance race that came up with a tepid class rating, so I'm going to hold my breath and not use her.

Clenor (8-1) is surely moving in the right direction with three straight wins since shipping from Ireland over the summer, improving her TFUS figs each time.  She still has some improving to do from the 81 she got in her last though, an overnight stakes over the course at Santa Anita.  She unleashed an explosive move four wide around the turn and held off a game Nasso (20-1), who has the rail, and is forecast by Pace Projector to be on the lead.  Ready to Act (8-1) is another Chad Brown horse; she dumped her rider as the 8-5 favorite while leading in the stretch of a stakes at Woodbine after winning her debut.  Help!

I'm at least set on not using Testa Rossi (8-1); her win in the Miss Grillo came up slower, and there doesn't seem to be much speed to set up the kind of deep close she executed in that race.  But she wouldn't be a shock; nor would Sky Painter (15-1), who she beat by a nose.

Well, I don't think I can go ALL in a 14 horse race, so I'm gonna go with this, in alphabetical order, as I don't really have an opinion on a winner:

Al Thakhira / Clenor / Chriselliam / Kitten Kaboodle /  Ready to Act / Vorda   As for My Conquestadory?  Hmmm, only reluctantly and defensively, if at all.


So, there's a potential Pick Three ticket there.  Of course, through the magic of mathematics, I could add on a single from the six-horse Distaff and bet the Pick Four for the same price.  I'd have to really like her though, because if this Pick Three came through with that horse in the middle, I'd think I'd be pretty happy.  And pretty unhappy to see it go down the drain, and for what kind of extra return if I went with Royal Delta (8-5), who I expect to be the post-time favorite?

I do like her to avenge her defeat to Princess of Sylmar in the Beldame.  Just don't think it was her day. She hit the starting gate on the way out, and yielded the live inside path, while Princess of Sylmar glided over to that spot for her run down the backstretch.  Surely, it was a disappointment for her to succumb to the winner as easily as she did; but Mike Smith did not really pursue the issue once the outcome was clear.  Had been thinking that she wasn't really totally wound up for that race, and read something very interesting in the recent HANA newsletter.  Seth Morrow of Equidaily, in response to the question of whether he thinks Royal Delta will rebound, says that he read where trainer Bill Mott said, prior to the Beldame:   "We gave her a couple of pretty easy weeks up there [Saratoga] after she ran - hope we weren’t too easy on her."

You never know where you can find information....or too much information, depending on how it turns out.  But taking a look at the workouts prior to each race:

Difference is quite apparent.  Mott surely has not taken it too easy on her this time.  Now she returns to the track where she won this race last year, and earned a TFUS figure of 123, second best of her career.  If she does repeat however, I don't think it will be in the same wire to wire fashion.  Here's what the Pace Projector looks like.

It shows the West Coast speedball Beholder (#5, 5-2) in the lead with Royal Delta (#4) tracking.  The Pace Projector is based on the adjusted fractions that the horses have run in the past, and obviously doesn't anticipate any changes in strategy that one might expect to see.  I think though that Mike Smith has no choice but to yield to Beholder.  Richard Mandella's three-year old daughter of Henny Hughes is five-for-six, with a second, on the Santa Anita main track, and comes off a solid prep win in the Zenyatta, with a TFUS fig of 114, galloping around the track at a steady clip.  She's gonna be out there setting her own pace again I believe, and will surely take some beating.  I'm figuring that we'll see the champion in Royal Delta shine through this time; she'll get first jump on the leader and I think she'll prevail over her younger rival, who was beaten late by Princess of Sylmar in her own prior try as long as this mile and an eighth distance.

Then there's the matter of Princess of Sylmar (9-5).  What can we say; she's been spectacular, still working well, and surely wouldn't be a surprise.  Just betting that this is a lot to ask for a filly who had been geared up for one final race before the change of heart, and that Royal Delta will have enough to hold her off this time.  It will take quite an effort and the heart of a champion to run down the speedy Beholder and prevail against a late run by Princess of Sylmar.  I think she'll get it done.  Whether I'll want to risk a possible wagering score on her doing so, I'm not sure.  I'm thinking about it.

End Game

Well, only a week left until Election Day, and despite the raft of negative publicity and editorials, the outcome of the casino referendum seems clear. At least, according to the state-wide polls.....and at least when presented with the advocacy language that will appear on the ballot.  Which is what they're gonna see.  Now a NY Times - Siena College poll of NYC voters - home to about 40 percent of the state’s registered voters - paints a similar story.  

The poll quoted the Nov. 5 ballot language, which lists only positive arguments for allowing casinos, such as promoting job growth and increasing education funding. After hearing that language, six in 10 likely voters said they would vote yes.

“That is a strong margin of victory for the gambling amendment,” said Steven A. Greenberg, a Siena College pollster. “If support is 60 percent in New York City, I am hard pressed to see how it could fail statewide.” [NY Times]

That's actually more support than the rest of the state - the last state-wide Siena poll had 55 percent in favor and 42 percent against.  Of course, the same city voters polled against casinos located in the city.  But they don't have to be concerned with that for the foreseeable future; seven years, or so we are told.  So, they don't really have to think about any actual casinos in town, so, hey, sure, job growth, education, why the hell not?  It's just another insidious aspect to this whole sordid process that a population that is detached from the debate, and from the possible negative consequences (which are not mentioned on the ballot) of local casinos, would have such an outsized effect on the fate of the measure.

Well, this sucks.  I imagine we'll see more in the way of newspaper editorials against the measure as the vote approaches.  But the main wave of negative news over the language and the lawsuit seems to have passed. In truth, this matter was over (if it indeed is) as soon as Eric Snyder's suit was thrown out.  And considering the statute of limitations which ultimately made the suit moot, the jig really was up when the language was altered behind closed doors, no doubt at behest of the governor's mansion. This race was fixed.  No doubt about that.  I'll review the whole miserable tale at some point, but we really need to get to some Breeders' Cup races. So, I'm gonna work on that.

Just a couple more points first.  About Cuomo.  For one thing, we still haven't heard a peep out of him in support of the casinos.  So I'm pretty sure I was correct in my original suspicion that he planted that story with Dicker, about some "secret" poll showing the measure in trouble, in order to get pro-gambling groups to spend money on advertising.  The latest is a mailer from NY Jobs Now (which drew criticism for not disclosing the money behind it)  If this thing was really in trouble, you can bet he'd be out there.

One thing he did talk about recently was Aqueduct.  When prompted on the topic by the NY Daily News (long an ignorant editorial voice to shutter the racetrack), Cuomo said:  “It’s been a waste.”  So says the man who took control of the tracks, recited lofty words about how concerned he is about the animals and about the importance of the industry to the state.  As we well know, he has never once deigned to set foot inside any of the tracks.  And now, he tells all the hard-working horsemen and track employees that their efforts, their literal blood, sweat, and tears providing livelihoods and generating ample revenue for the state was "a waste."  I'm sure that's not (exactly) what he meant.  But one might expect that he would at least put a few seconds of thought into what he says.  It's enough to make me want to sign off with just two short words directed towards His Highness.  The same two he tells this industry on a regular basis.

 “You could do anything at Aqueduct. I mean, you’re right at the airport. It’s a great piece of property.  It’s one of the largest pieces of property, probably, in the city of New York."

I'm sure our governor knows exactly what is right for this great, large piece of property, which opens for racing, to continue what is no doubt the countdown to its demise, on Friday.  Without the long-promised new simulcast bar, now, I'm told, put off to an indefinite date in 2014.  Thanks for your help with that, Mr. Cuomo.

Cuomo Allies $pring Into Action

Just three days after Fred Dicker wrote of concern amongst Cuomo aides over a "secret poll" showing flagging support for the casino amendment, NY Jobs Now has introduced pro-casino ads downstate, at a reported cost of $1 million.  (Joseph Spector reports that a quarter of that came from Yonkers Raceway.)  How convenient for the governor.  He's denied the notion that he's keeping his distance to avoid being tainted should the amendment fail.  However, despite Dicker's report that he'd be going "all-out in the coming days," we still haven't heard from him in a substantive way.  What a surprise if we don't at all, as long as his minions are doing the dirty work for him.

Reporting in the Buffalo News, Tom Precious offers another possible reason why the governor has been mum on the topic.

One theory is that the less the supporters talk, the less the media will cover the issue – including casinos’ potential warts.

I hope you won't mind if I point out that that's my theory - I've been writing that here for weeks!

There are two different versions of the pro-casino ad.

One ad targeting New York City resident begins by noting both candidates for New York City mayor – Democrat Bill de Blasio and Republican Joe Lhota – support the bill. The second ad targets Long Island voters and makes the same pro-casino claim on behalf of Democrat Tom Suozzi and Republican Ed Mangano, who are running against each otJher in the Nassau County executive’s race. [Buffalo News]

 Here's the NYC ad.

I made the case in this post that supporting this amendment doesn't suit a progressive like de Blasio, who has made his "tale of two cities" mantra of economic inequality the centerpiece of his campaign.  However, de Blasio is counting on, unrealistically in the view of many, the State Legislature to approve a tax increase on earners of more than $500,000 in order to pay for educational programs, including pre-kindergarden.  Cuomo's support is obviously required (though it certainly wouldn't guarantee passage through the Senate); and he's been vocal about his misgivings about tax increases at this time.  So I would imagine that it would surely behoove de Blasio to not come out against what is a major initiative for the Governor.  (de Blasio has lately been "adjusting" his positions as his coronation draws closer, as reported the other day in two separate articles in the NY Times.) And indeed, Cuomo seemed a bit more receptive to the idea when the two met on Thursday.  (For those of you interested in such matters, there's this report by Azi Paybarah of the two discussing support for primary opponents to Jeff Klein and members of his Independent Democratic Conference that has helped to stymie progressive initiatives in the Senate despite a numerical advantage for Democrats.)

Meanwhile, we continue to see opposition to the referendum in newspapers on both sides of the political spectrum.  The NY Times is out with a new editorial today; while there was a particularly interesting opinion piece in the NY Post by John Sullivan.  The headline concerns Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, wondering why we haven't heard from the man who submitted the original neutral ballot wording before it was turned into the advocacy language.  But Sullivan also points this out about State Supreme Court Justice Richard Platkin, the judge who unceremoniously tossed Eric Snyder's lawsuit against the language on technicalities:

The judge who ruled against [Snyder], an acting Supreme Court justice in Albany, will lose his job next year unless he’s re-appointed by Gov. Cuomo — who many suspect is behind the ballot shenanigans.

Now, since we're talking about the NY Post, I did a little fact checking. And indeed, a check of NYCourts.gov, shows that his term expires next year.  

Man, this thing just continues to stink to high hell!

And here's one more article, this one in the Buffalo News.  It presents both sides of the argument, but I think it presents the opposing view more prominently and convincingly.  Then again, I'm a little biased. But point is that it is showing the opposing view at all, and for free, becuase it's the only kind of media "campaign" that the opposition is able to afford.

 - [UPDATE: Scratched.] In the 9th at Belmont today, Westside Corral (5-1), makes his third start since being claimed by trainer Dominic Galluscio, who has been spotting this six-year old gelded son of Bernstein more realistically than before. He'd been consistently facing horses a cut or two above these, and has back TimeformUS speed figures that would dominate this field.....and as recently as two races back, a win against a competitive beaten claimers field at Saratoga.  In his last, he was shuffled to the rear after breaking from the two post, stayed there until tipping out five wide around the turn, and finished well for 4th.  When the last horse crossed the finish line and the camera view switches to the gallop-out, Westside Corral was well in front of the rest. And that may be the first....and last....time you ever see me write about a gallop-out here.  This race figures to have an honest pace; though the recently faint-hearted Mia Poppy (10-1) is forecast by Pace Projector to once again lead as he did in that last race, I think there's enough other speed, from Iron Power and Breathaway, to ensure that he has to run faster than a 25.48 first quarter to get there.  Make a Decision (6-1) and Powerful Instinct (5-2) are both improving animals from live barns.  Best of luck and have a great day.

Cuomo Concerned About Casino Vote (So We're Told)

I'm hanging out at the TimeformUS blog these days, writing a regular feature called Today in Racing.  There, I'm discussing and explaining our features, and also going off on some topics of interest, so I hope you'll check it out please.  Also have our Breeders' Cup Package with advance PPs is available here.

Catching up on the upcoming vote, Fred Dicker reported in the Post on Monday that aides to Governor Cuomo are worried about the fate of the casino amendment after secret polling data showed an "ongoing loss of support" for the measure.  The governor intends to go "all out" in an effort to shore up support.

A key reason that support for casinos is slipping is the recent disturbing revelation that Cuomo aides were involved in altering the language used on the ballot to make it more attractive to voters, a second source close to pro-amendment forces said.

“Cuomo’s attempt to wire up the vote appears to have backfired, with so many negative stories and editorials,’’ the source said. [NY Post]

Ha, well, you gotta love that...if that's really the case.  Regardless, no doubt that Eric Snyder's efforts in his lawsuit is paying dividends despite its quick dismissal by the courts.  Many of the editorials and negative coverage referred to came in the wake of the discovery of the Advocacy Language, and then again when the suit was filed.

If the Governor is going to go on the campaign trail with this, then I say 'bring it on.'  His popularity has waned on both sides of the political spectrum; and recent publicity has all been bad between Snyder's suit and the reports of his attempts to interfere with his own anti-corruption panel when its inquiries threatened to hit too close to home.

The thought has also crossed my mind that Cuomo is full of it here....wouldn't be the first time....and is just trying to make sure that supporters with access to cash don't get complacent.  Dicker reports:

 “NY Jobs Now,’’ a coalition of union, business and gambling interests, including the state’s existing racetrack “racinos,’’ is scrambling to raise funds for a costly last-minute media blitz to encourage a pro-amendment vote, it was learned.  

Indeed, the latest Siena poll actually shows slight improvement in the numbers for support.  And, it again confirms the effect that the Advocacy Language has in swaying voters.  

"It's clear the wording of the casino amendment that voters will see on their ballots is influential in moving voters to support the amendment, particularly Democrats and New York City voters," Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. [Syracuse.com] 

Yeah, leave it to those liberals, all concerned about stuff like education and jobs.  One thing to keep in mind though - and that a helpful reader pointed out -  is that with De Blasio so far ahead of Joe Lhota in the polls, the turnout in NYC could be suppressed.

Well, I say bring on the ads too.  I mean, what the hell at this point.  Don't really think defeating the referendum stands a chance given the ballot language if people walk in without an opinion (or without even knowledge that it exists).  So might as well have it brought to people's attention.   Perhaps that will spark another round of newspaper editorials calling out the deceptive or unfounded claims, and presenting the downsides to expanded gambling; as well as any modest media coverage of opponents' reactions that they can garner with their limited resources.

Such as this article, entitled: It's all nonsense: Forum on casino expansion gets emotional.  ("It's all nonsense" is actually a quote from a casino supporter, though it doesn't come off that way to me.)  With the lede:

 Anti-casino activist David Blankenhorn thinks the gambling industry is engaged in "a sterile predatory activity that only takes money from people without giving them ... anything of value in return."

 Blankenhorn was out-numbered, not only 3-to-1 on the panel, but also by Jeff Gural asking questions from the audience!

 “Why shouldn’t someone in Binghamton, a retired person who wants to spend $30 at a slot machine be able to go to spend $30 in a slot machine?.....Why should you dictate what someone should do with their money?" [Capitol New York]

 Seriously, Jeff?  That's the best you can do....the big soda argument?  Why shouldn't he then be able to go hire a prostitute or score some weed?

 - One thing from last week that you may have already seen.  Teresa Genaro wrote on Forbes.com about Cuomo dissing the tracks that he was so eager to take over by refusing to set foot in any of them; even in Saratoga a half hour drive from the governor's mansion.  Well, Howard Glaser, the governor's senior policy advisor, had the nerve!!!!! - I mean, the unmitigated gall!!! - to leave a comment, saying: "NYRA will receive over $100 million in subsidy from the lottery of the State of New York. Before Governor Cuomo took office the amount of state support: zero."

Teresa was a bit polite in dismissing the comment as being "a bit disingenuous."  It's actually a bit absolutely outrageous that Glaser would think that we're stupid enough not to know that the "subsidy" that NYRA receives was a product of past administrations and has absolutely nothing to do with Cuomo, who would take it all away if it was up to him.  Jeez!

Belmont Friday

In the 7th at Belmont, Hyman Roth (8-1) is a three-year old son of Street Boss who has surely found a home on grass after floundering on dirt early this year, with three wins from five attempts.   And he's shown versatility in doing so, winning on the lead and from a couple lengths off the pace.  Though his TimeformUS speed figures are surely a cut below those of top contenders such as Karakorum Legend (2-1 poe), Sandy'z Slew (7-2) and Ziptronic (5-1), he is going in the right direction, with improved numbers in each of his grass starts.


Might have made even more progress in that last race at Saratoga too with a better trip.  Breaking from the rail, Hyman Roth quickly found himself pinned inside towards the back of the pack.  Seemingly eager to make some progress from there, he was stymied when forced to steady around the first turn.  He remained towards the rear before mounting a mild late rally into a quick closing quarter, coming home himself in a snappy 23.03, best in the field, to be 4th.  Further compromising his chances to improve on that finish was the fact that the turf courses seemed to be firmly favoring speed at that point in the Saratoga meeting.  Cuts back to seven furlongs today; a distance at which he is one-for-one on grass, and that win came from off the pace.  He'll have to utilize that strategy today with speedier types such as the abovementioned Ziptronic and Sandy'z Slew, as well as Thunder Harbor (6-1) in the mix.  If Jose Ortiz can indeed harness his speed, can be close should he continue his progression of improvement.

In the 8th, Chasing Moonlight (6-1) goes first time off the claim for an obscure, and winless in 2013, trainer in Juan Ortiz.  Gelded son of Grand Slam was a fruitful 14K claim for Dominic Galluscio, with a win and a second in three starts.  Furthermore, he improved speed-wise, earning a career high TFUS figure of 101, which is the best in 2013 of any horse in the field.  Obvious questions are whether he can run back to that effort just seven days later, and whether he can be successful beyond six furlongs at today's distance of seven.  A winning effort off of eight days rest in March would seem to answer affirmatively to the first question; the latter remains to be seen.  But would be worth his morning line price to find out, and we like that jockey Luis Saez sticks around for the new connections.  Best of luck and have a great day.

 - We have a TimeformUS Breeders' Cup Package which will be available with the release of the advanced past performances on October 23.  Besides our usual great features with foreign runners - highly detailed race commentary for most entrants and speed figures for which a great deal of work has been done on both sides of the Atlantic in order to bring into a harmonized scale for easy comparison - it includes expert European commentary on the foreign runners (as well as the usual stellar domestic work) delivered to your inbox, and unlimited past performance access to all tracks on Breeders' Cup Friday and Saturday.  Details on the package can be found here.

[UPDATE: And I'll be doing a new feature on the TimeformUS blog called Today in Racing; first post up here.]

Statue of Limitations Rules the Day in Ballot Language Decision [UPDATED]

Undaunted, Eric Snyder plans to forge on, and seek emergency relief from the appellate courts after State Supreme Court Justice Richard Platkin tossed his challenge to the advocacy language on the casino referendum ballot.  [Update: He changed his mind.]

He has a little problem though, the way I see it.  The suit was simply filed too late.  Even as Judge Platkin conceded in his decision that the Board of Elections snuck it onto their website [well, that's my characterization] four days after the deadline to sue, he noted:

 But even if the law permitted the statute of limitations to be tolled during this period of delay and the 14-day period in which to bring suit began to run on August 23, 2013, the petition/complaint would still be untimely.  

 Uh oh.  Seems to me that's game/set/match.  The state gets away with their deception on this technicality, in part because the language wasn't reported in the press until mid-September.  However, to be honest, even if the law permitted the statute of limitations to be toiled until that time, Snyder still didn't file within 14 days.

So, quite unfortunately, the Court did not even consider the question of whether the language constitutes improper use of funds to advance government advocacy.  That's the main substantive issue, and it's one which neither the Board nor the government officials involved have ever even attempted to dispute.  The one substantive issue that Judge Platkin did rule on was the one involving Snyder's contention that the Board violated the Open Meetings law, and that's what he will base his appeal on.

 “I was shocked that the judge dismissed the claim that the (Board of Elections) meeting was in secret when that claim wasn’t even in front of him....The board didn’t move to even dismiss that claim. So I’m going to seek an immediate appeal on that issue alone.” [Pressconnects]

With all due respect to His Honor, I vehemently disagree with his decision that the "documentary evidence" of the July 29 public meeting of the Board of Elections shows that the language was discussed.  As I feared in this post, he asserted that when it was discussed at that public meeting that there would be words added "to review the legislative purposes in the underlying statute," it was clear that that "clearly represented a description of the Purposes Language."  (Except that I feared that the state would argue that.  One of Snyder's points is that the judge dismissed his claim on those grounds even though the Board didn't move that he should.)  I find Judge Platkin's assertion here to be especially specious (if I may use a judicial term myself) considering that this so-called "legislative purpose" (to promote job growth, increase aid to schools, and lower property taxes) is not even included in the actual legislation.

However, no matter how solid the legal arguments and the common sense behind Snyder's arguments may be (and we are a nation of laws and principles, not a nation of common sense, otherwise military-style assault weapons would not be permitted in the streets, the Ku Klux Klan would not be allowed to march down Main Street, and Governor Cuomo would not be allowed to advocate for his favored amendments inside the polling place), it is hard to see how any appeal is going to get past the fact that the suit was filed too late.

Having said that and as futile as it may be, the longer Snyder carries on, the longer the question is before the public and - hopefully - in the press. Because, if this audience in Syracuse last night is any indication, a fair and two-sided debate on the topic is good for the casino opponents. Unfortunately, once we get to November 5, the language that voters will see is anything but fair and is decidedly one-sided.

Keeneland Wednesday

I was actually around for most of the holiday - to some of us - weekend, and was ready and willing to post some picks for Belmont.  And I tried, I really did.  But I honestly couldn't come up with anything I liked enough amongst the 29 races offered.  Didn't look in depth at all of them....didn't consider 2YO maiden races, fun to bet off the tote and paddock at the track but not as much trying to figure out beforehand, nor others that I just didn't care for upon first glance.  Not that the races were bad; some of them, including the two stakes on Saturday, were too hard, others uninspiring, and just couldn't find any particular horse to get me excited.

Of course, it was probably mostly just me.  Seems just a very short time ago that I had an opinion on nearly every race.  That was Saratoga though, and everything seems a lot clearer there.  For me, there's a natural ebb and flow when it comes to horseplaying and the patience and concentration it requires.  Peaks in July and August and come the last couple of weeks of Belmont, when it's often cold and empty there, I'm often burned out.  Don't always get it back together for Breeders' Cup. Let's see (as Trevor Denman might say), there have been 29 Breeders' Cups....and though I've watched at least significants portion of them all, whether live or on tape, probably have had minimal or no wagering on half.  Helps this year that there's no presidential election; and though there are no Caleb Posse's over whom I'm drooling over 2+ weeks out, still plenty of time to fall in love with someone.

So, having my said that you can take the following handicapping selections for Keeneland on Wednesday for what they are worth!

In the 8th - and assuming it goes on the grass - Special Guest (10-1) is a lightly-raced four-year old filly who has shown nice progression since returning from a 371 day layoff, and switching to the barn of trainer Neil Howard.  After a third in the slop, she graduated, on dirt, at Ellis Park before switching to turf and winning in her first try against winners.  That was a professional performance; a nice ground-saving trip behind the leaders to be sure, but I liked the way she surged through an opening in the stretch, and gamely held off a nice-looking filly in Bremusa (who she apparently bumped late, at least according to the chart comment).  Then, in her last, and with a new rider, she found herself on the lead in a very slow-paced race.  Don't think that's her game.  Faded to 5th - less than three lengths behind repeat winner Poetic Kid - but still earned a career-best TimeformUS speed figure of 89 that puts Special Guest (#9) in the mix here in a race that Pace Projector indicates will have a lively pace to potentially set up her closing kick.

Victor Lebron, on board for each of her two career wins, returns to the saddle, and stretching out to nine furlongs should only be helpful for this daughter of Smart Strike out of a half-sister to BC Distaff winner Unbridled Elaine.  Plenty of room for improvement in only her 8th career start, and looks attractive at her morning line.  Tabreed (3-1) cuts back to nine furlongs; effort two back at Saratoga makes her tough here; one to beat.

In the 9th, Golden Galaxy (7-5) has ten wins in 16 career starts, but makes her debut on a synthetic track of any variety.  Well, I don't have to explain to you guys why this horse is a must bet-against; the kind that can beat me if she can.  I like three horses starting on the inside who all have good records on synth, and which I'll use for the second half of the double.  Neverrguwithritchie (12-1) makes her first synth start of the year after winning two of her four 2013 starts, one each on dirt and turf.  She's six for 12 lifetime on the artificial surfaces.  With wins, earning competitive TFUS figures, from six furlongs to one turn miles to two turn routes, she should handle this seven furlong test.   One negative is a poor try in her only start at Keeneland (three years ago), but willing to overlook for that morning line price.  Point to the Wild (7-2) also returns to synth, on which she's won three of her four sprint starts.  She also has a disappointing effort in her only try over this track, but that came against better in a race in which she earned a figure that puts her right there against these.  Pace Projector puts her sitting second behind the favorite in a race projected to favor early speed.  All four lifetime wins by Devout Diva (9-2) have come on the Arlington Poly; I do fear that seven furlongs may be a bit beyond her best abilities, though she did graduate at that distance.  And for those looking to spread for a Pick Whatever wager, Emmy Who (10-1) is a little scary based on good figs earned in three career synth tries at Turfway Park.  Best of luck and have a great day.

 - Casino opponents may not have money to mount an ad campaign.  But they threw together some dough to get a slot machine to smash to smithereens up in Albany.  Might have made for more effective visuals though if they used some lighter fluid and a match.