No Distractions

- The Belmont Stakes is the only racing day of the year that I go to the track and actually pay 100% attention to the live races at hand. No simulcasting on Belmont day, which I find to be both a blessing and a curse. Simulcasting is another thing that I actually thought of before anyone else but didn’t do anything about it. To me, the more the merrier, and it doesn’t mean that I’m betting 100 races a day; I actually wager on a very small percentage of the available races, but just the fact that it’s there and that I have a choice of races to bet on makes it valuable and fun. It gets me out to the track more often, since winter racing or wet tracks are no longer a deterrent if there are attractive betting alternatives. It also keeps the atmosphere at the track lively, except in the clubhouse at the Meadowlands, where people watch the races in stoney silence. The Meadowlands is also the only track I know of where people don’t respect seat or table markers. I could have a ten foot neon sign declaring “OCCUPIED” attached to one of the outdoor tables there, and if I stepped away for one minute there’d be a family of five settled in.

I know honestly that I get distracted from the live racing and sometimes get overwhelmed and become unable to concentrate on anything. I also tend to get away from observing horses in the paddock and on the track. Ideally, I stick with the home track and use the simulcasts as alternates when there’s a race I’m not interested in, but I'm not always disciplined enough to do so. So I’m hoping to have a BIG day Saturday to encourage me to exercise discretion when it comes to simulcast distraction.

In that spirit, I’ve gotten right to the handicapping, and right off the bat there’s a very intriguing entry in the first, an entry-level allowance for fillies and mares at 6f. Contrast (Unbridled) is a 3yo who won her only race, a maiden special at Delaware, by 4 lengths with a spectacular 105 Beyer and beating a filly who won her next start. You certainly can’t dismiss big maiden wins at that track these days. Contrast is out of the great champion sprinter Safely Kept, who won 24 out of 31 starts, including the BC Sprint in 1990 when Dayjur jumped a shadow at Belmont in deep stretch. Like Inside Information, about whom it was noted when her Smuggler ran in the Acorn last weekend has disappointed as a broodmare thus far, Safely Kept has had winners but nothing approaching her quality. Perhaps that’s why Contrast went off as the 2-1 second choice. Not here - she looks like she could be 1-5 or less.

The double payoff on Contrast with Sagitta Ra in the second, a filly and mare turf race, will likely be quite short. She got beat a half length at 3-5 in her last; she’s been close in a couple of graded stakes and comes from Frankel with Bailey aboard. But she could be worth a bet-against. She’s burned a lot of money, having not won in 7 tries since her debut, and she draws the 9 post, not a great spot at 9 furlongs on the inner course. Positively Wild has won only once in 27 starts and is 0-14 on the turf, yuck. But since a brief layoff in the spring, she’s put in two nice efforts on the turf with career best Beyers that are competitive here. She closed from way back at this level for third at this level and distance two back, and she finished well for third again against high-priced claimers in her last, keeping pace in a fleet final quarter. Trainer Leo O’Brien hasn’t done much of late, but he’s 10-16 in the money at this meet so far. She switches from Channing Hill to Bejarano, and is 12-1 morning line. Fastidia is the logical second choice for red hot Christophe Clement.

- The 60 Representatives and Senators who make up the Congressional Horse Caucus wrote a letter to Senator John Kyl urging him to ensure that racing is exempted from his proposed bill to ban financial transactions for phone and internet wagering.

The caucus said the draft legislation as written would have the "unintended consequence of block payment processing for account wagers conducted pursuant to the Interstate Horseracing Act, which Congress clearly intended to be legal."

The caucus acknowledged the U.S. Department of Justice position that account wagers violate the federal Wire Act even though Congress amended the IHA in 2000 to clarify that pari-mutuel wagers could be made via telephone or electronic means.

"Ironically, despite the (Department of Justice's) insistence that interstate account wagering violates the Wire Act, the agency has not chosen to prosecute any of a number of companies openly engaging in the process today, so there is no authoritative jurisprudence on the matter," the letter from the caucus said.

The caucus asked Kyl to consider that previous versions of legislation to ban Internet gambling included "clarifications" for pari-mutuel wagering. It said such clarifications--the word exemptions isn't used in the letter--"are obvious steps to implement what has clearly been Congressional intent for several years, and we strongly urge you to include such provisions in your bill." [Bloodhorse]

Alex the Great

- Tim Ritchey and Jeremy Rose spoke to the Philly Daily News’ Dick Jerardi about the unique qualities that make Afleet Alex the one to beat.

How often do you get a horse with the talent and intelligence to go with it?

"First one I've come across," Ritchey said. "I've trained an awful lot of horses in 30 years. A lot of horses have the talent, but they don't have the mental ability to just relax. I've seen some horses that could relax, but they couldn't run very fast."

Alex's jockey, Jeremy Rose, said Alex could give the burst of speed any time during a race. What Ritchey has done is teach Alex to relax so when Rose deems it the right time, an almost imperceptible signal tells the colt to go. That Alex has the stamina to still have that burst after running a pretty high speed for several furlongs is a testament to all those miles in the morning. [Philly Daily News]

Rose plans to change nothing for the marathon distance of the Belmont, as he wrote in the NY Post:

As far as the Belmont, I've already pretty much figured out what I want to do ... whether it'll happen or not, I don't know. But what I'd like to do is just set back like I have in every race, let him relax the first mile and probably a quarter, and then just let him run that last quarter.

Sounds pretty easy, but it remains to be seen just how things will set up for him. If Rose keeps his cool – perhaps he should watch a tape of Real Quiet to see what he should not do – it’s hard to imagine that he won’t be right there, if not all by himself at the finish. Jerry Bailey says that Rose’s lack of experience at the track and in the race really doesn’t mean all that much.

"What do I have over Jeremy Rose? Not a lot," he says. "Most of us only ride one mile-and-a-half dirt race every year, and if you're ready for pressure situations, if you're capable of performing in big races, the mile-and-a-half won't faze you."

Yes, Bailey says, 19 rides "gives you some edge but it's certainly not critical. Give me the better horse and I'll give you all my previous Belmont experience." [NY Daily News]

Cash is King has apparently turned down ever-increasing offers for the horse. Nick Zito confirmed to the Philly Inquirer that his offer after Alex’s maiden win was $650,000. Managing partner Chuck Zacney spoke about a phone call he received after they won the Sanford at Saratoga last summer.

"Somebody was offering $2 million for Alex. You don't know how legitimate it all was, but they sounded interested. I turned the phone off, I leaned over to my wife, and said, 'We just turned down $2 million for Alex.' She started rolling her eyes. I heard numbers directly, myself, I believe the number went as high as $3-to-31/2 million, prior to the Breeders' Cup." [Philly Inquirer]

And this report from Delaware Online (via Albany Law School) says that the offers have reached $10 million since the Preakness. I have to say, if I’d paid $75,000 for my first horse and was offered $650,000 after he broke his maiden, I would have been mighty tempted, wouldn’t you?

- Bill Handleman in the Asbury Park Press takes another look at Giacomo, noting how cautious his connections have been in the past.

The last time Shirreffs saw fit to come to Belmont Park he brought Bertrando with him. Bertrando ran in the Woodward Stakes in 1994…."I just noticed Holy Bull had blocked heels on and he had a big butt."
…..
The last time Moss came to Belmont Park he won the Metropolitan Mile with a horse named Garthorn. That was in 1986.
…
Let me get this straight now. The owner returns after 19 years, the trainer comes back after 11, and the colt gets on a plane at 2 o'clock in the morning and flies across country to run against Afleet Alex, a horse who beat him by almost 10 lengths a couple of weeks ago in Baltimore.

Something's up here.
…
If Giacomo's Derby was such a fluke, then why would his cautious, patient trainer go to all the trouble to fly him back across the country to get his [not that big] butt whipped by Afleet Alex again? [Asbury Park Press]

So, let’s assume that the horse is doing great. That doesn’t mean he’ll be able to win at a mile and a half at Belmont. I think that the idea that he’s some kind of big closer who will naturally thrive here is really a myth that came out of the Derby; if you look at his running lines, you’ll see a one-pace horse who more often than not does no better than run evenly in the stretch. OK, I’m done making my case against him.

- Zito’s three entrants in the Belmont gives him a record 11 starters in one Triple Crown series.

D. Wayne Lukas has the record for starters in a Triple Crown series at 10 in 1996, including Derby winner Grindstone and Belmont winner Editor's Note. But one precedent Zito doesn't want to establish is the most starters without a win -- let alone without an in-the-money finish. [Courier-Journal]

His Pinpoint comes out of his win in the Sir Barton on Preakness Day, the same race he used to prep 3rd place finisher Royal Assault last year, and the race that Sarava came from in 2002. He’s a son of Canadian champ Peaks and Valleys, a winner up to 9 furlongs, out of a Halo mare, and big surprise, his breeder Arthur Hancock said "He's probably bred to get the distance if anything is. He's a big free-galloping horse.”

If Zito does not get one of these in the money, it would certainly be a dubious distinction. NYRA’s Belmont Stakes website has another:

Bob Ussery can lay claim to a peculiar honor in the Belmont. He finished absolutely last on Jade Amicol in 1968, Bonjour in 1963 and on Folk Dancer in 1962. He missed being dead last on Fleet Shoe in 1966 when he finished tenth in an eleven horse field. [NYRA]

Going Nowhere

- It’s really nice to see that Wayne Lukas is finding some softer spots for poor Going Wild. No, he’s not running against Afleet Alex, the best 3yo in training; instead, he has him entered in the G2 Riva Ridge at 7f Saturday against Lost in the Fog, the best 3yo in training. Lost in the Fog is certainly facing the toughest test of his career. Egg Head, whose name I would despise if his sire wasn’t Honor Grades, has actually run faster than LITF, if you believe in his Beyer of 112 in his last race at Delaware. Gotham winner Survivalist is entered; he ran well at 7f at Gulfstream in his first race this year, and Proud Accolade resurfaces looking to rebound from two very disappointing tries.

I’ll have an eye on Allen Jerkins’ War Plan to be the favorite’s main challenger He’s improved drastically since Jerkins took over from Kiaran McLaughlin, and he has a first, second, and a third in the Withers, just 3 1/2 back of Scrappy T with a career high 95 fig. He has steady works, with a spectacular :34 when asked for speed. War Plan is by Fusaichi Pegasus, out of a Known Fact mare, and is in fact related to Belmont entry Indy Storm, who is his second dam’s great-great grandson. Don’t know if he can handle LITF, but he seems like one to watch regardless.

- As for Lukas, he continues to express supreme confidence in A. P. Arrow, comparing his running style to that of two of his four Belmont winners, Thunder Gulch and Editor’s Note. Remember he did run, though rather poorly, in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing a fading 9th, 8 1/2 behind 4th place Giacomo. It seems like a big leap to think that his maiden win, on a sloppy track - he has a 442 Tomlinson mud number - now makes him competitive against these. But Lukas denied he’s there just to collect from youbet.com.

"My deal is straight-up, to do their promotional deals, speaking engagements, advertisements, and whatnot," he said.

A Youbet spokesman said that a 20 percent bonus on Lukas's roughly $50,000 annual contract would have been paid to Lukas if he earned a Derby victory, and that the contract calls for an additional 40 percent bonus with a Triple Crown sweep. But, Lukas said, "unless I misread my contract, I don't know of any incentives - and I think I'd have known. As far as I know, if I'd won the Triple Crown, I wouldn't have gotten an extra dime." [Daily Racing Form]

- I saw Bob Baffert on TVG just before - and he seems to have become rather insignificant lately - and when asked about the Belmont he sounded kind of bitter, don’t you think:

“All I know is, if you wanna really piss a horse off, run him in the Belmont.....I have a lot of bad memories from the Belmont, that mile and a half, but it’s still one of the big jewels of racing, it’s still exciting to win it”

He seemed to like Giacomo a bit. Mike Smith was on too, and he spoke about the way Giacomo galloped out after the Preakness and said that the horse has maybe gained a little weight if anything. John Shirreffs, and this is probably the first time I’ve spelled his name correctly, said that he wouldn’t have shipped him if he wasn’t fit and ready.

"We wanted to see how he trained. Then to make the decision to get back in the plane, to ship here, he’d really have to be doing well because it’s easier to stay home and wait for races like the Swaps [Stakes (G2)]." [Thoroughbred Times]

If you take this trainer for his word, you have to at least assume that the horse is ready to go.

Shirreffs has employed an almost identical work pattern that he used for Giacomo before the Derby for the Belmont, with a seven-furlong breeze in 1:27 on May 30 and 12 days before the race and a six-furlong breeze in 1:14.80 on Sunday and six days before the race. Shirreffs used the same schedule for the Derby [TT]

These workouts were very different, however, from the ones before the Derby - then, his 7f work was 1:23.4, and his 6f work was 1:11.4. I just don't like him in this spot regardless of how he's worked, and I'm not going to use anywhere on my tickets.

- Yes, the Form already has the pp's online for the 13 race card Saturday, which includes five graded stakes in addition to the Belmont, featuring the Grade 1 Manhattan Handicap at 10f on the turf. Get to work!

Notes - June 8

- Reserved seating for the Belmont has long been sold out, but if you're planning to go, or if you want to but only if you have reserved seats, there are plenty of them - good ones - being sold at face value or less on Craig's List. Needless to say, last year you couldn't find any for much less than double the face value.

- Several weeks after Magna signed a deal to build a $100 million racetrack in Detroit, someone has finally taken a closer look and wondered why

..many racing industry experts say the Romulus racetrack may end up being another case of Stronach's vision failing to match up with reality.

Specifically, they question why a company would invest $100 million in a horse track that cannot offer gamblers lucrative slot machines.

In November, Michigan voters rejected a proposal to allow video lottery terminals at racetracks. "He has a history of making promises he doesn't keep," said Jacob L. Miklojcik, president of Michigan Consultants in Lansing and a gaming adviser. "I can't see spending $100 million on just horse racing. It doesn't make financial sense."
....
"They are saying the same things in Detroit that they said three years ago in Maryland," said Alan Foreman, general counsel for the Maryland Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association. "You have a company that has very questionable finances and seems to be in trouble. The cash flow from racing operations doesn't seem to be sufficient to justify the expenditures they've made in these projects." [Detroit News]

Now, a local harness track is challenging Magna's license.

Northville Downs argues a third in Metro Detroit will oversaturate the market and force the 61-year-old track to close.
....
Officials at both the Northville and Hazel Park tracks argue that Metro Detroit's waning appetite for horse racing can no longer support three tracks.

Detroit Race Course, which offered thoroughbred racing, closed in 1998. Faster action at casinos has bettors taking their wagers to the gambling halls in Detroit and Windsor, track officials say, noting that revenue plunged 30 percent at Northville Downs and 35 percent at Hazel Park after all Detroit casinos became operational in 2001. [Detroit News]

Links via Albany Law School Racing and Wagering Page. That last sentence about the effect of casinos on the harness tracks makes Magna's decision all the more ponderous.

- The Belmont will be Indy Storm's third race in five weeks, but unlike Sal Russo's concern over Reverberate being tired, Nick Zito is not worried. "I'm kind of glad we pushed the envelope a little bit with him, because it woke him up a bit".If you notice over the years, trainers like Allen Jerkens, the good trainers, do that sometimes to wake a horse up." [Thoroughbred Times] Trainers always have an explanation ready to justify anything they do. Indy Storm is by Belmont winner A.P. Indy, out of a full sister to Banshee Breeze, winner of the mile and a half CCA Oaks, so one would think he should be amenable to the mile and a half.

- A few weeks ago I posted about a Pennsylvania State Senator, Michael Stack III, who stood to profit from slots due to his ownership interest in some land that was being eyed as a casino site. Now, Ameristar Casinos is no longer interested in that property.

Ameristar Casinos Inc. said it reconfigured its option to buy a plot of waterfront land because of lingering questions about Stack's role in a state sale of the water rights to the land. [Philly Daily News]

- Please feel free to email me with links, comments, suggestions, or questions.

Belmont Odds and Ends - June 8

- Reverberate is tired, according to his trainer Sal Russo.

“It's asking a lot of him to come back in two weeks, but we're going to give it a try,'' a weary-looking Russo said Tuesday morning as he continued to fight a stomach flu.

Even though his 3-year-old colt will be making his third start in 34 days, Russo said Reverberate has improved with each race and is bred for the grueling 1 1/2 mile-Belmont.

"I still wish we had more time,'' he said. "I'm just hoping he'll be fresh for the Travers..'' [Bloodhorse]

Yes, another one bred for the distance, but I won’t quibble with this one. As mentioned before, he’s by a Belmont stakes winner, Thunder Gulch, out of a mare by BC Classic winner Proud Truth; and he descends from a prolific female line of producers from whom have descended a plethora of graded stakes winners including Glorious Song and her brother Devils Bag, Soaring Softly, Mehmet, Military, and Plenty of Grace. Also interesting to note is this: History buffs will know that Reverberate's owners, Centennial Farms, won the 1993 Belmont with Colonial Affair after running second in the Peter Pan — the same course being taken by Reverberate. [NY Post]

A.P. Arrow is firmly in the “bred for the distance” club according to Wayne Lukas. "He is absolutely a perfect fit for the mile-and-a-half….He carries his speed and stays and stays. He has no bottom to him." Of Afleet Alex and Giacomo, he says that their prior wins "will not help them at the quarter pole on Saturday." [USA Today] However, Ken Ramsey says of his maiden entry Nolan's Cat, who ran second to A.P. Arrow in the 1 1/4 mile maiden race: "No way A.P. Arrow can beat him in the Belmont." Sounds like a good proposition bet to me.

…computations called "fatigue curves" are behind the decision to race this son of Catienus in the Belmont.

Ramsey explains that fatigue curves show how much a horse slowed down in its races -- if it did slow down. Ramsey said the figures he has show that Nolan's Cat ran every quarter-mile faster than the previous fraction in his most recent race at Churchill Downs. [Lexington Herald-Leader]

He’s by the Storm Cat stallion Catienus, out of a mare by Belmont winner Easy Goer; his second dam is by Hatchet Man, and his third dam by Belmont winner Stage Door Johnny, so the distance influence is certainly there. It just may have helped if he had a win on his record.

- Some recent Belmont parimutuel history gives hope to these longshot types:

Four of the past six years have produced gigantic payoffs. Birdstone spoiled Smarty Jones ' Triple try last year and returned $74 at odds of 36-1; in 2002, it was Sarava paying a record $142.50 at 70-1; in 2000, Commendable returned $39.60 at 19-1; and in 1999, Lemon Drop Kid paid $61.50 at 30-1.

In the past 12 Belmonts, only two favorites have won -- Thunder Gulch in 1995 and Point Given in 2001. [Bloodhorse]

Matt Graves reminds us of the importance of the jockeys in this race:

We also have learned that the Belmont Stakes is a jockeys' race. We've seen Kent Desormeaux push the button too quickly on Real Quiet, a charge that was also leveled at Stewart Elliott aboard Smarty Jones last year. It has happened to plenty of others unfamiliar with the unique demands of Belmont.

Just look at the winners of the past eight Belmonts -- Gary Stevens and Edgar Prado twice, Pat Day, Jerry Bailey, Chris McCarron, Jose Santos. Yes, it is a jockeys' race. The stalker with the cool, calm pilot and perfect pedigree usually gets the job done. [Albany Times Union]

While I was watching all those past Belmonts last night, it really jumped out just how early Desormeaux did move on Real Quiet, and it just so happens it was the same big move on the turn that Afleet Alex generally makes. If he runs his typical race, will there be anyone who can track him down in deep stretch? Jeremy Rose will be riding all this week at Belmont to try and get familiar with the course.

- NY-based trainer John Parisella commented the other day that if Edgar Prado had been riding Afleet Alex, he’d be going for the Triple Crown. Rose, a former wrestler who has been gaining in confidence and bravado since the Preakness, responds in the NY Post today:

I'll introduce myself to Parisella this morning at Belmont, and we'll have a little chat. I'd like to know what he thinks I did wrong in the Derby while we're face to face. If he just wants to be a wise apple, then we have a problem. I never even heard of the guy.

Parisella was farily well-known around here at one time, but I can’t tell you anything he’s done of late. Rose, however, should keep his mind on business; Parisella is not the only person who has expressed the opinion that Rose moved too close and soon in the Derby. He has two mounts at Belmont today for Scott Lake, who just got his first win of the meeting after 28 tries on Sunday. However, one is one the turf, and I don’t see how that helps familiarize him with the main track. The other is at 6 furlongs, and Parisella has a horse in that race. I don’t expect they’ll be exchanging pleasantries beforehand.

Tuesday Night Notes - June 7

- Nick Zito tells the NY Post why he’s sending three horses with no graded stakes credentials in the Belmont. "One thing I learned from Hirsch Jacobs and Allen Jerkens is that when your horses are doing good, run 'em…..These three horses could not be doing better than right now." He has all three up at Saratoga and will send them to Belmont on Wednesday. Steve Haskin has an interesting tidbit about Zito trying to buy Afleet Alex after seeing his maiden win at Delaware on TV.

Zito called Ritchey himself. "Nick asked if he was for sale," Ritchey recalled. "Then, he said again, 'Name your price.' But the owners (Cash is King Stable) had no interest in selling."
…..
"He was the only horse that's ever reminded me of Spectacular Bid," Zito said. "I remember when 'The Bid' broke his maiden, and it was so similar. I wanted to buy the horse for Bob LaPenta. I knew this was no ordinary horse; that's why I told Timmy to buy him at any price. Here I am offering a million dollars or more for a horse who had just broken his maiden at Delaware Park and they turned us down." [Bloodhorse]

Watchmon could be the longest price on the board, but his owner tells us “He'll get the distance." It’s amazing how assuredly we’re told that these horses will get a mile and a half, when some haven’t proven they can win at shorter distances. Patrick Biancone is at least honest when he said of Chekhov, “The only thing I don't know about is the distance." [Bloodhorse]

- With Richard Dutrow suspended until July 30, he’s lost, at least temporarily two of his stars. Sis City and Saint Liam have been sent to Bobby Frankel, like he needs anymore outstanding thoroughbreds. While the racing manager for Stonerside said that Sis City’s owners “would review the situation” once the suspension is served, Saint Liam’s connections said that “we're planning on giving the horse back to Rick, mainly because Bobby has so many in that category, including the big gun." [Daily Racing Form] Indeed, Saint Liam, who battled within a neck of big gun Ghostzapper, is aiming for the same races as the champ - the Whitney and the Woodward.

- Medallist has been retired to stud with a fractured sesamoid and will stand at Three Chimneys in Kentucky; he won the G2 Dwyer and two G3’s including last year’s Withers. He’s a son of Touch Gold, the winner of the 1997 Belmont, edging a determined Silver Charm, who was the even money favorite. It was the first time since 1989 that a horse came in with a chance to win the Triple Crown, and when Tom Durkin called that Touch Gold, who was owned by Frank Stronach, had won by a “heartbreaking half length,” you could feel the disappointment in his voice. Little did he know what would transpire the next year! It was the beginning of the revival in attendance for the Belmont, which had reached some scary low points. Though that doesn’t seem long ago, Touch Gold’s first crop is now five. He stands at Adena Springs for $50,000.

- If you have some time on your hand, check out this page from NYRA's Belmont site; it contains complete replays and calls of past Belmonts, hopefully you're lucky enough to have the right plug-in. If so, be prepared to spend some time. The Head Chef wanted to go to dinner before, but I got kind of involved. She was standing by the door as Angel Cordero got Bold Forbes to hold off Mackenzie Bridge. But then, when I got to the Marshall Cassidy years, I suddenly got very hungry and we were outta here; his shrill drone was particularly unwelcome after listening to races from the 70's with a young Dave Johnson, then at the very top of his game.

Crocks of Crap, Coolers, and Most Unusual Cameras

- This past Sunday's Queen Plate Trial at Woodbine will be decided in a hearing room of the Ontario Racing Commission. Dance With Ravens (A.P. Indy) was first under the wire in an exciting finish, but Rui Pimentel, the rider of 6th place finisher Atanas claimed foul over an incident just after the start, and the stewards agreed after less than five minutes of review "About 20 yards out of the gate, Kabel's horse drifted out," said [chief steward] Richard Grubb. "Pimentel's horse caught his heels and nearly went down, so we had to disqualify him. When a horse hits heels, a jockey is in jeopardy of going down." [Toronto Star] The DQ'd trainer and rider didn't quite agree. "It's pathetic," said Mark Frostad; and jockey Todd Kabel commented, "That's the lowest call in racing....I mean, Rui runs up on my horse's heels and he checks and then claims foul? It's a crock of crap."

Dance With Ravens is out of Canadian champion Dance Smartly, who in addition to winning the Queens Plate (and the Canadian Triple Crown) herself, has foaled two additional Plate winners, Scatter the Gold in 2000 and the filly Dancethruthedawn in 2001. I know Canadian racing is of a much smaller scale than that of the U.S., so to say that's like Winning Colors foaling two Derby winners in a row isn't really apt as a comparison, but it's still pretty amazing nonetheless. Three in the Bag (Silver Deputy), who finished a head back in second, gets the win....for now. The purse money is being held pending a final decision. Three in the Bag's second dam is a half-sister to a horse named A Phenomenon, a popular sprinter-type from the early 80s who won the Vosburgh, Jerome, and even the Jim Dandy. He ran second in the Met Mile at 4, but suffered a fatal breakdown that year. Also, Three in the Bag is from the same family as the late Pleasant Stage, who started the whole dead horse thing from the other day. The Queens Plate will be run on June 26.

- If the comments section of a recent post is any indication, NYRA has not been perfectly clear about the ban on bringing alcohol to the track on Saturday. Indeed, I found a full page ad for the Belmont in a local arts and entertainment magazine (Chapter 1: Hope; Chapter 2: Courage; The Final Chapter: Coming at Belmont Park), and there is not a single word regarding the fact that unlike every other racing day in New York, you cannot bring alcohol in coolers. At Saratoga, there is a prohibition on glass bottles, but not on delicious cans of Bud. I suspect that there are going to be a lot of really pissed off people who will be disappointed at the admission gate, and this could create a lot of bad will amongst prospective patrons that racing should instead be welcoming with open arms.

- I've seen some really great films lately, but haven't mentioned them here. I go off topic enough and besides, the last three non-documentary movies I've seen all dealt with underage children either having sex or thinking about having sex so I didn't want anyone to think I'm weird or anything. It was just a coincidence, I can assure you; in fact, I didn't even know that two of them dealt with the topic because I don't read film reviews until after I've seen the movie. I find that movie reviewers just reveal far, far too much of the plot - and even sometimes the ending, without warning that the review contains spoilers. Some reviewers love to give away the ending when they don't like the film, which of course gives him/her the right to ruin it for everyone else. I prefer being surprised as I go along. On the other hand, as a horseplayer, I'm dying to know what's going to happen in the next race!

And that reminds me of an old episode of the Twilight Zone, entitled A Most Unusual Camera, which was originally aired during the show's second season, on December 16, 1960. [Warning: This post contains spoilers.] Paula and Chester Dietrich, a pair of two-bit thieves, rob a store, and amongst the disappointing bounty is an old Polaroid-type camera. Just another piece of junk, so it seemed, but when Paula takes a picture of their front door, the photo that pops out reveals her jailbird brother Woodward. When Woodward then pops through the door, they realize that they have a camera that takes pictures five minutes into the future. So, they did what I, or any self-respecting reader of this blog would do - they headed straight for the racetrack, where they took a picture of the tote board just before the race, revealing the final order of finish.

Now, I don't mean to quibble with the script-writer, but in 1960, with large crowds and long betting lines at racetracks, as well as longer periods needed to decipher photos and make races official, it seems questionable that you could actually do that with only five minutes to work with. Today, of course, it would be a piece of cake, though it'd be no help for a race like the Queens Plate Trial. In any event, the happy trio returns home, only to discover that they've been allotted just ten pictures, eight of which have been used. So of course, they argue over what to do, Chester and Woodward fight and fall out the window; Paula snaps a picture of the two bodies on the ground, but the picture reveals four. She trips and falls to her death, as does the unsuspecting room service waiter, a tragic innocent victim to it all, and a bit of gratuitous violence I must say. Rod Serling voiceover:

"Object known as a camera, vintage uncertain, origin unknown. But for the greedy, the avaricious, the fleet of foot who can run a four-minute mile so long as they're chasing a fast buck, it makes believe that it's an ally, but it isn't at all. It's a beckoning come-on for a quick walk around the block - in the Twilight Zone ." [some website I found via Google]

As enticing as it sounds, I imagine that we'd all quickly tire of making money so easily at the track, and would return to the challenge of handicapping (or move to Antigua). However, with a ten-photo limit, it would be a challenge to save your pictures for the races likely to produce an improbable enough result to make it worth your while. Perhaps I'd just save it for ten wide-open Kentucky Derbies. I can't really think of any way I could stop world hunger or promote world peace with a still and wordless five minute window into the future, so I don't feel guilty about fantasizing, and I'm certainly not greedy nor avaricious (nor fleet of foot). The only other worthwhile use for it I can think of now is to use it in the New York City subway system. By taking a picture of the subway platform, I'd be the only person to know whether a train is really coming soon, or if I should go and find a bus.

Belmont Top Ten (minus one)

This is the Left at the Gate list of who will be making news on and around Belmont Stakes day this Saturday.

1) Afleet Alex continues his unorthodox training regimen, adding some gymnastics after his agile display in the Preakness. Tim Ritchey announces that after the Belmont he’ll train Alex up to the New York Marathon. I’m going to look to beat him here, but he certainly merits being the strong favorite that he will be.

2) Reverberate played second fiddle to some top Derby contenders in the spring, but since the addition of blinkers he’s done nothing but improve, culminating with his second to Oratory in the Peter Pan and a 106 Beyer. He could be a real contender in the Belmont, and if he is, can you imagine how good Oratory could be?

3) Eddie Castro - Unwilling to rest on his laurels after his nine win day, Castro outdoes himself by riding 11 winners in a 10 race card at Calder, battling himself to a dead heat in the 8th. He then drives a winner at the Pompano Park harness track, sweeps the late double at Dania Jai-Alai, and wins an argument with a buddy over the last double fudge Oreo cookie.

4) Southern Africa - Another one who’s improved with the addition of blinkers - he’s a length away from having won three stakes in a row.

5) Andromeda’s Hero has become famous for the way he gallops out after the race is over, so Bejarano takes off and races him around the track just before the start in an attempt to fool him. The ploy fails as he mounts his usual too late rally, but he gallops out so well that he flies by the Belmont winner and catches the winner of the previous race.

6) Pinpoint - Yet another one who has really improved in his last three with blinkers, but he’ll have to improve much more than either of the other two.

7) Giacomo - I’m just not into him right now. I see him flattening out in the stretch and I think he’s an excellent candidate to leave out of exotics to try and make some money.

8) NYRA - The explanation on NYRA’s website for prohibiting fans from bringing alcohol on Belmont Stakes day is this: “The restriction regarding alcohol has been enacted in the interest of patron safety and in an attempt to make sure that people drink responsibly.” In addition, NYRA announces that to make sure that people gamble responsibly, patrons will be limited to $100 in losses for the day, and no more than $10 per race.

9) Chekhov - Do you spell the character from Star Trek Chekov or Chekhov?

Belmont Notes - June 6

- Afleet Alex was on the track at Belmont Monday morning, galloping not once, but twice around the huge mile and a half oval….and that was just a couple of hours after a mile and a half jog on a very warm and humid morning on Long Island.

So, in total, Afleet Alex trained an unbelievable 4 1/2 miles on the hottest morning of the year by far. When he returned from his gallop, his nostrils were flared and bright red, and you could clearly see every vein on his body. After being hosed down, he seemed to cool out well and was none the worse for wear. It actually may have taken Ritchey longer to cool out, as he returned on the pony with sweat pouring off him. This horse continues to amaze, as he does things you just don't see other horses do.
…….
Ritchey said today's move will be Alex's final stiff gallop before the race. "I wasn't planning on working him again, so I wanted him to stretch his legs a little bit this morning, and show some acceleration, which he did," Ritchey said. "The only thing is, it got hotter that I anticipated, so we just have to make sure he gets some cold water on him, and we'll get some fluids in him, and everything should be good. The heat is always a concern, but it's never bothered him. He ran during the summer months at Delaware Park and Saratoga last year, so I don't foresee it being a problem.

"I'll cut down on his training after today. That was his major move, five days before the race, and we'll start jogging and slow galloping once a day from now until the race." [Bloodhorse]

Tim Ritchey notes an important difference between Alex and the last two Belmont favorites. "My horse relaxes….I don't think Funny Cide ever relaxed in that race, and we know that Smarty Jones didn't. In a mile-and-a-half race, you have to have a horse that will relax early.” [Newsday]

- Southern Africa’s trainer Mike Pulhich sounds extremely confident about the G3 Lone Star Derby winner, who worked 6f in 1:13 at Arlington yesterday. "He galloped out seven furlongs in 1:25 and we're ready to roll.” [Bloodhorse] He’ll ship to Belmont on Wednesday. Southern Africa is the only graded winner in the field other than the top two choices, but is a bit under the radar screen, having beaten up on second/third stringers in the Lone Star race. He won the Borderland Derby at Sunland in February against even lesser. He earned a lifetime best 96 in the LS Derby, and zipped home in :30 2/5 for the last 2 1/2 furlongs, though as we noted a few days ago, the Lone Star strip has been lightning fast. He shows the kind of tracking speed that generally serves horses well in the Belmont, but has never won over 1 1/16th; he’s 0-2 at 9 furlongs. He’s by Cape Town (Seeking the Gold), who won the Florida Derby at 9 furlongs; his most famous offspring is champion Bird Town, who also won up to 1 1/8 miles, setting a stakes record in the Kentucky Oaks. His foals have an average winning distance of 6.8 furlongs, and I don’t see much to go by in his female family, so I’m not drawing any conclusions from his breeding about his ability to get the distance or not. He's a bit of a mystery to me.

Southern Africa is not to be confused with South Africa, either the minor stakes winner also by Cape Town, nor the country, whose president Thabo Mbeki was in Washington to meet with our president last week. The latter confirmed after the meeting that the U.S. would not go along with Tony Blair’s appeals to double hunger relief aid to Africa by $25 billion, saying that "It doesn't fit our budgetary process," demonstrating his ever-increasing vocabulary [NY Times]. It’s in the most bipartisan of spirit that I say that there’s something tragically wrong with a world in which we spend many times more than that to develop weapons to kill and mutilate people, because surely even the most ardent supporters of the adventure in Iraq would agree that there's something wrong with that, right? Especially, and here comes the more partisan portion of the blog, when the current war was initiated under false pretenses that the press won’t focus on even when it’s spelled out in writing, as in the Downing Street Memo. More on that at The Snarky Cat, AfterDowningStreet.org, and the Big Brass Alliance.

- From the White House to a white horse - The White Fox, one of only 17 pure white Thoroughbreds that have ever been registered in the 300 years of recorded Thoroughbred breeding, finished third in his career debut as the 9-10 favorite in Sunday's first race at River Downs. [Bloodhorse] He has his own website at www.thewhitefox.com.

- A couple of early Belmont predictions from Newsday’s weekly triple crown panel:

- I know Afleet Alex has been training well since the Preakness, but I still suspect that the Triple Crown's first two legs will have a wearying effect in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont. So whom to pick? Giacomo's late-running style, despite the added distance, is still not the way to win the Belmont. My hunch is that it will be trainer Nick Zito's turn in the Belmont again - with new shooter Pinpoint, who ran a good race on the Preakness undercard.

- Afleet Alex is remarkably resilient but comes off a career-best effort in pace and final time and was interrupted by the terrifying incident for which the 2005 Preakness will be forever remembered. A regression would be only natural. Giacomo keeps running the same race and is always at the mercy of the pace. Kentucky was the right place at the right time, but this is not a horse that will win many races. Pinpoint, Reverberate and Southern Africa are up-and-coming colts. Afleet Alex is clearly the one to beat, but from a bettor's perspective, a vulnerable favorite nevertheless. [Newsday]

More Notes - June 5

- Good job by TVG today showing the stretch runs of Eddie Castro’s unbelievable 9 wins at Calder yesterday. Also a nice job by new track announcer Bobby Neuman, who took over from long-time caller Phil Salzman this year. He first picked up on Castro during his 3rd win in the 4th, calling his name during the stretch run and noting it was his 3rd consecutive win. As Castro edged to victory number 6 in the 10th, he called “Could this be number six for Eddie Castro?” For number 7, the new record at Calder, all attention was on the rider - “Here comes Eddie Castro with Carey’s Gold....bidding to give Castro his 7th winner on the card...” Win number 8 was a head-bobbing stretch duel and I think Neuman forgot about Castro in the excitement, but for the climactic 9th win - “It’s Ben’s Advantage...trying to give Eddie Castro an all-time record. He has 8, he’s bidding for 9, which would be the most wins at one track for one jockey in one day......He does it!”

Oh yeah, nice job by the jockey too, who was shut out after winning the first race on Sunday.

Castro, a 21-year-old Panamanian jockey, has been in the United States a little more than two years, and in that time has won an Eclipse Award as the leading apprentice jockey for 2003 and three riding titles at Calder.

He was the leading rider at the Calder's Tropical meeting in 2003-2004 and the leading rider at the summer meetings in 2003 and 2004.

His record the year he won the Eclipse Award was 1,256-242-257-174. [Miami Herald]

- Bennett Liebman, the proprietor of the Albany Law School Racing and Wagering Page, suggests that we "Look at the chart of the 4th race on Saturday from Suffolk Downs, and answer the question of how the stewards allowed the race results to stand and didn’t cancel the wagering on this race."

- Giacomo had his final workout before departing for New York on Wednesday, getting 6 furlongs in 1:14.80.

Shirreffs timed Giacomo through an opening quarter-mile 26.40 seconds, a half-mile in 50.80 seconds and five furlongs in 1:03.60.

"I was wondering if Sabina was asking him, and she wasn't," Shirreffs said. [Daily Racing Form]

I dunno, Giacomo ain’t quite doing it for me, how about you? His Preakness provided a certain affirmation of his Derby in that he again beat most of the horses he'd beaten there, but it didn’t prove that he could beat a top field without having the race set up for him. I’m also not convinced at all that the extra distance will be that much to Giacomo’s advantage. In his column the other day, Steve Crist, in making the argument for a wager on the under-75,000 for the Belmont crowd, wrote:

This year's race is a tough sell. Afleet Alex is a deservedly popular colt, but the idea that the public is salivating for a rematch or rubber match between him and Giacomo is as far-fetched as the canard that Giacomo had some sort of nightmarish trip in the Preakness that accounts for his 9 3/4-length defeat. He was 11 lengths back after a half-mile, eight back in the stretch, and did nothing but lose ground behind the leader while completely clear and inching past tired horses in the stretch. Maybe he will like 12 furlongs more than Afleet Alex will, but it is otherwise difficult to see a reversal of the Preakness outcome. [Daily Racing Form]

I might have taken an over-75,000 stance because I think that the crowds of the last few years have risen the attendance bar and elevated the status of the race as an event. But there’s one thing that Crist doesn’t mention in his column that I think may have a significant and negative effect - the no alcohol rule. People who would come on a nice day even if the Belmont was a match race between Going Wild and Tom Cruise to just hang with their friends and drink beer do not want to stand on long lines (and can you imagine how long they’ll be!?) to pay six bucks, or whatever it is there, for a Bud Light, ugh. Those are the people who are going to say f--k it and stay home. This is not coming up as a compelling enough race to convince people who may be on the fence, in my opinion....except perhaps for hardcore Alex fans making the trip up the Turnpike.

Sunday Night Notes - June 5

- Frank Lyons on TVG said before the G3 Sands Point at Belmont today that the "guys" in Frankel's barn think that Melhor Ainda (Pulpit) will be the next champ to emerge from the Frankel barn. She broke from the outside 8 hole, which can be a challenge at the 9 furlong distance on Belmont's inner turf, but John Velasquez showed why he gets the big bucks. He angled in to be only a couple wide going into the turn, and emerged with a spot on the rail going down the backstretch.

"I wanted to be covered up because I think she is better when she is covered up. I was sitting right behind Jerry (Bailey on Paddy's Daisy) the whole time," Velazquez said. "His filly gets out a little bit, and as soon as she drifted out a little bit, I punched it and she was there. Wow, she blew them away. " [Bloodhorse]

She really did, slinking through the opening like Curtis Martin and ridden out to the wire. They came home the last 3 furlongs in 35.32 seconds, and she made up 2 1/2 lengths, getting the last eighth in 11.50.

Checking in 3rd was My Typhoon, who has two impressive wins, including a victory in the Hilltop on Preakness day, in the two races that she has not faced Melhor Ainda; and a well-beaten 3rd and 4th in the two that she has. She's a Giant's Causeway half sister to Epsom Derby winner Galileo, and would likely do better to avoid Frankel’s filly at all costs.

- I stared at TVG, an online tote board, and the Form for a couple of hours this afternoon and didn’t make a bet at all as nothing caught my eye, at least from a betting standpoint. Right before Melhor Ainda’s win, Frankel sent out 3-2 favorite Sanit Anddan (A.P. Indy) in an entry-level allowance off a maiden win at Gulfstream. He’s a 3 yo out of a mare by Danzig Connection, who we were just discussing the other day. This time, however, Frankel had to settle for second, as the improved 3 yo gelding Mr. Congeniality contested a lively pace with a second quarter of 22.45, and drew away to win by 5 1/2. He’s trained by Michael Hushion, who is sizzling at Belmont, with 7 wins and 5 seconds in 22 starts going into the weekend. I’m putting him on my watch list; if you draw lines through his two turf tries and his 7th in the Gotham his form looks very impressive, and he beat what looks like a nice field today. He’s by Chester House, out of a stakes-placed Wild Again mare. His second dam is a half-sister to Darn That Alarm, a popular handicap horse in the 80’s who was often close but won only 9 out of 42 starts, one of which was the Fountain of Youth. According to Pedigree Query, he died in a barn fire at Meadowbrook Farm in Ocala, Florida, on May 6, 2003, along with Traitor, Faygo, Star of Valor, and Reality Road. I’m checking to see if he’s on the list. Yup, they’re all accounted for.

- Yet another nice 3 yo filly seen winning a stakes this weekend was Three Degrees, who took the G2 Honeymoon BC Handicap on the turf at Hollywood as the 2-1 favorite. She got an assist when the second choice Berbatim was eliminated after the start after stumbling and causing Alex Solis to lose his irons. She came from 6 lengths back at the 3/4’s, and won by a length as they came home in 36.40. She lost the G3 Senorita by a nose and is otherwise unbeaten in 4 U.S. tries. Three Degrees is by the globetrotting Singspiel, winner of the Dubai World Cup amongst other international affairs, and a son of the great champion mare Glorious Song (who died of intestinal problems in 2003. I have to get off this dead horses thing.)

Sunday Morning Notes - June 5

- Round Pond (Awesome Again) won her 4th in a row and her first effort outside of Oaklawn Park to take the G1 Acorn and move to the upper ranks of the 3 yo filly division. I thought that Stewart Elliot did an excellent job, sitting patiently as Smuggler and John Velasquez moved to challenge the leaders setting a too-fast pace, remaining so as In the Gold and Bejarano flew by making their too-early rally from the back of the pack, and picking up all the pieces in deep stretch in a final quarter of :25 3/5. I was sitting with a nice win bet on 6-1 Smuggler, as well as an exacta box with he and In the Gold, so it was a disappointing development for me, but a nice win for John Servis.

"Turning for home, it looked like Stew was sitting still on her," said Servis. "But I couldn't really tell because there were horses in front of her. When he eased her out, I knew he had horse. She's a good filly..”
......
He said the Alabama (gr. I) at Saratoga in August is the next main goal for Round Pond. [Bloodhorse]

The Form reported that she would run in the Mother Goose. Still, it was an excellent effort for Smuggler in her first stakes race; perhaps her dam Inside Information finally has a really good one. Oh well; at least I had some action, having started a win parlay with Bayou Breeze down at Monmouth. Aaron Gryder explained to the Asbury Park Press how he placed a call to Richard Migliore, who’d ridden her in her two wins.

"I talked to Richard Migliore and it's a good thing I did...He told me, "When you get to the turn, start driving on her. She'll take a long drive and she's just kind of steady.'
.....
Gryder remembered Migliore's advice and chose to wait.

"Sense of Style went past us and I chose not to go with her," he said.....I started getting into (Bayou Breeze) at the three-eighths pole and the more I did, the more she responded."

I don’t recall reading many accounts of jockeys calling each other for advice like this, and I wonder how often, it occurs, if at all? Sense of Style ran well and is headed for the Mother Goose in three weeks, where she may or may not find Round Pond.

- For Nick Zito, it will (again) be quantity if not quality for the Belmont Stakes, as he added allowance winner Indy Storm to the mix.

"With strangles, with herpes and Iraq, what's the big deal if I run three horses in this race?," joked Zito this morning. [Bloodhorse]

Well, that’s a pretty dumb quote to read here on a sunny and peaceful Sunday morning in Queens. If you throw Iraq into the equation, it’s no big deal if he enters a 3-legged camel with a heart condition and particularly bad breath. Perhaps I’m too sensitive, but I don’t find that to be funny, especially as a war that didn’t have to be drags on with no end in sight. Nonetheless, it’s another Belmont runner with modest qualifications, and Zito said “I think he's a mile and a half horse. Right now the horse is telling me to take a shot." He also told him to name Edgar Prado to ride. If you listen to these trainers, there will be more “mile and a half” horses gathered at Barn 14 in Belmont than there really are in all of the country.

Family Night

- I’m home amidst the chaos of a kids’ weekend. Soon we’ll be off to my dad’s 75th surprise birthday party, so let’s hope he’s not reading this. (He’s not.) (If he is then.....SURPRISE! :-). I’m alive in a parlay with Bayou Breeze (A.P. Indy), who paid a solid $8.60 after defeating 3-5 Sense of Style by a nose at Monmouth, and with Smuggler in the Acorn. She’s 6-1....now 5-1, a fair price indeed. I was at least able to escape to Belmont for a couple of hours. There was no turf racing, a muddy track, and short fields. I know I’m going to pass a race when I see a two horse entry at even money, and then look at the Form and see that they lost their last races, in the same class, by a total of 22 lengths, as in the second (they ran 2nd and 4th). But it was a nice day and a little break before a lot of family. Have a good Saturday night.

Scrappy Not

- It’s disappointing news that Scrappy T will not run in the Belmont. He was a legitimate contender off his Preakness effort and I think he would have run well. His connections said it isn't the right spot for him at this time.

"He's going to give it his best if you put him in the water swimming," said Dowell on Thursday evening after Scrappy's work. "But you have to think about the management of his racing career when he is 5, 6 or 7." [Bloodhorse]

He’s run ten times in the last eight months, which is a pretty busy schedule these days. You can’t criticize them for looking out for the horse’s welfare. There is some point of course where you’d like to see some “sporting nature” kick in as long as there are no physical issues that could endanger the animal, but I don’t think that applies in this case. They're going to try him on the turf at Colonial Downs.

Steve Crist is bummed about another Belmont non-participant:

The most disappointing development regarding the race is Sheik Mohammed's decision not to run Oratory, who might well have been the second choice in the betting off his stakes-record Peter Pan victory, which earned a lofty Beyer Speed Figure of 114. Granted, he got an easy opening half-mile that left him with a full tank late, but the Belmont often unfolds the same way and this is hardly a speed-packed lineup. Given the Sheik's obsession with winning a Triple Crown race, and his penchant for running horses of questionable quality and foundation in them, the decision to withhold a superior colt coming off an outstanding performance in a traditional Belmont prep is all the more mysterious. [Daily Racing Form, sub. only]

2 Year Olds - Dead and Alive

- There were two baby races at Belmont today and D. Wayne Lukas won them both. Folklore took the second easily as the 3-2 co-favorite. She’s a daughter of Tiznow, the 2 time BC Classic and multiple Eclipse award winner whose first crop is 2 this year. He stands for $30,000 at Winstar Farm, and while as a son of Cee's Tizzy he’ll have to prove himself in order to attain the type of stud fee worthy of his race record, he’s been successful in the sales ring thus far. He had 42 yearlings sell for an average of $144,000 last year; and his 2 year olds in training this year have averaged over $186,000. Folklore is Tiznow’s first winner. She’s out of an unraced Storm Cat mare, and her 2nd and 3rd dams, Jeano and Basie, are both graded stakes winners.

In the 4th, it was Short Circuit, the second choice at 5-2, also winning easily. He’s a son of Lemon Drop Kid out of a Danzig mare; his second dam is La Spia, winner of the Del Mar Debutante, and second by a head at 29-1 to the eventual 2 yo champ, the ill-fated Pleasant Stage in the 1991 BC Juvenile Fillies. (If you can open that link and see the race chart, you'll see that Preach finished 7th as the 2-1 favorite; she's the dam of Pulpit, the sire who's been attracting attention of late.) Pleasant Stage died the next year of an allergic reaction to a vaccine, according to Pedigree Query.

Both 2 year-old winners are owned by Bob and Beverly Lewis.

- I found this page cached from the now defunct Thoroughbred Times Forum while doing some research for this post and it’s pretty funny.....or actually, maybe not. But I just found it rather amusing (or actually, maybe not) that someone would take the time to compile what seems to be intended as a list of the cause of death of every stakes winner in the history of the world....or something along those lines. There are more dead horses here than you'll ever want to see. There are breakdowns, colon cancer, heart attacks, fractured skulls, lightning strikes, neurological complications, tetanus, ruptured uterine arteries, murders, a drive by, a collision with Timely Writer, and much, much more. This is the kind of stuff that could get the sport some big ratings as a TV drama or reality show.

Bad Trips and Tracks

- The Racing Form’s Brad Free doesn’t hesitate to challenge common wisdom, and today he takes on those who automatically assume that a horse that had trouble in a race would have run significantly better if he had a clean trip. He uses Hollywood Story, the likely favorite in Saturday’s Milady BC Handicap, as a specific example. In the adjacent column in the print edition, Mike Watchmaker notes (sub. only)

In the Hawthorne Handicap, heavily favored Hollywood Story was wiped out and nearly dropped by an opponent who ducked out sharply going into the first turn. Yet she still inhaled her field with a wide rally into the stretch, won by a widening 2 1/2 lengths, and earned the top last-out Beyer Speed Figure in this race.

In light of that remarkable effort, and given Hollywood Story's proven affinity for the main track at Hollywood Park (she has now won 3 graded stakes from 4 career starts over the surface), it is impossible to go against her Saturday, even at a short price.

But Free retorts:

It is not that simple. Trouble does not always compromise performance. And in the case of Hollywood Story, an unprejudiced review of the Hawthorne leads to an obvious conclusion - the first-turn incident did not adversely affect Hollywood Story.

This is not meant to malign the filly. Hollywood Story's rapid recovery from the heel-clipping incident is testament to her agility and competitive spirit. Other, lesser horses might have surrendered then and there. It requires unusual talent for a horse to pick herself up, and go right on with it.

The hard part is quantifying the incident, and on this point handicappers are easily confused. Trouble is not necessarily negative. Dramatic, yes. Harmful, no. A bettor who believes a horse will always run significantly better with a clean trip is making a leap of faith. Often, they do. But there is much to consider before reaching the conclusion.

He then goes into a long series of questions that should be addressed before assessing the impact of a trouble line, for example:

Did the incident negatively affect the horse's running style? It did not affect Hollywood Story, a deep closer whose style is to race near the rear of the field early. If she had been a front-runner forced to take up or lose position, the incident would have been significant. But she was back where she was going to be anyway.

Unfortunately, it’s a subscription-only column, and I’m not going to reprint it here in its entirety; but if you don’t subscribe on-line, check it out in Saturday’s print edition, it’s well worth the read. And note that Free did not begrudge Afleet Alex for his stumble. Yet.

- With Evangeline still closed and leaving a big gap in my simulcast menu, another southwest track, Lone Star, is coming under fire for being too hard and too fast according to the Star-Telegram’s Gary West.

Horsemen have complained intermittently about the Lone Star surface for years. Of course, horsemen complain about almost every surface in the nation, particularly when they aren't winning many races. But the complaints this year seem louder and more desperate than in the past, and in many cases, they originate from trainers who are winning regularly.

And the complaints seem justified. The surface has indeed been uncommonly fast this season, unusually conducive to rapid times. The surface typically has been about three lengths faster than it was a year ago, and it was fast then.

On May 27, for example, a $10,000 claimer named Front Tees ran six furlongs in 1:08.95. Now, a $10,000 claimer shouldn't be able to move that fast unless he's riding in the back of a van. On April 28, a $25,000 claimer named Devil's Money ran six furlongs in 1:08.02 -- that was faster than Speightstown's winning time here in the Breeders' Cup Sprint in October. And on May 15, a maiden claimer named Polevault set a track record of 51.19 for 4 1/2 furlongs.

Inside Information on a Filly and Mare Weekend

- It’s a distaff weekend as fillies and mares of all ages take center stage in stakes action around the country. Here in New York, it’s the Grade 1 Acorn for 3 yo’s. For the older set, Hollywood has the G2 Milady BC Handicap and Churchill has the G3 Early Times Mint Julep on the turf. The last several years the Acorn has been run on the Friday before the Belmont, and there was a weak attempt to couple it with the Belmont a la the Kentucky Oaks, but that has quietly gone by the wayside along with the crowds. Also gone is any talk of a “filly Triple Crown,” which is what the Acorn, Mother Goose, and Coaching Club American Oaks (once run at a mile and a half) used to be before it became known as the NYRA Triple Tiara; and now apparently they’re just three more stakes races on the program.

Only six are going in the Acorn, but it’s a wide-open affair, and you can really make a case for any of the six. The morning line favorite is Splendid Blended, who has not been seen since a G1 win in the Hollywood Starlet last December. Her trainer Neil Drysdale hits at 24% in this layoff category, and is happy with the way she’s progressed. "She's filled out and strengthened and has matured all around." [Daily Racing Form] Her only loss was to some filly named Sweet Catomine, over whom she was actually favored last October. However, it is her first race in over 5 months and she faces some sharp fillies here; she figures to get hooked early by Seek a Star, and all her races have been around 2 turns. Any one of these reasons would be enough for me to take a shot against her, so I can do so enthusiastically here.

Anticipating that she should be the 4th or 5th choice, I like the Phipps-bred Smuggler for Shug McGaughey; in fact she reminds me a bit of Oratory going into the Peter Pan. She hasn’t faced the quality some of the others have, but she comes off her 3yo debut, in which she beat the nice Bayou Breeze (more on her later) right here at Belmont at the same mile distance as the Acorn, jumping 20 Beyer points from her 2 yo best to 91. This despite the fact that Shug said that he "hadn't pounded on her for her first race back....I think she'll move up.". She’s by Unbridled, out of the great filly Inside Information, who won the Acorn by 11 lengths (more on her later too). She can sit a couple of lengths off the pace and should be really tough at a decent price.

In the Gold comes off her fine second to Summerly in the Oaks. What I like about her here is that her best races have been around 1 turn; most recently her tied for field-best 98 Beyer in the G2 Beaumont at *7f at Keeneland. Round Pond goes for Rockport Harbor’s connections (not Smarty’s, as I mistakenly wrote the other day), and she’s won her last three in impressive fashion, including a solid win in the G2 Fantasy over R Lady Joy, who ran a fine second in the Black Eyed Susan.

- Meanwhile down at Monmouth, another top 2yo filly from last year surfaces for her 3yo debut in the Revidere. Sense of Style (Thunder Gulch) took the G2 Spinaway and the G1 Matron with some impressive Beyers, but then faltered in her last 2, including a 9th in the BC Juvenile Fillies. She’s another from that popular combo of Michael Tabor and Patrick Biancone, who I hold in around the same esteem these days as Bill Frist and Tom DeLay. She’s listed at 4-5 morning line in a compact field of five, and I think she’s a solid bet-against here. She’s 0-2 around 2 turns, and though she had excuses, I’d instead take a shot with the sharp and improving Bayou Breeze (A.P. Indy) for Kiaran McLaughlin. She ran second to the aforementioned Smuggler at Belmont, and returns to 2 turns, at which she won her previous two easily. Devine Will has shown big improvement in maiden and entry-level allowances her last two, but will have to prove she can excel around two turns. (It may be worth checking out the results of this race, the 5th at Monmouth, to see how Bayou Breeze runs if you’re thinking about Smuggler in the Acorn.)

- Nick Kling of the Troy Record is not happy about the new Hall of Fame election rules, and he uses the previously mentioned Inside Information as an example of what the problem is.

Exhibit No. 1 is the failure of the brilliant Inside Information to be selected in the Contemporary Female category…..Inside Information captured 14 of 17 career starts. She bankrolled more than $1.6 million in the process. Inside Information never finished worse than third. Two of the three races she lost were won by sensational race horses in their own right - Lakeway and Classy Mirage. The Private Account filly earned six Grade 1 victories, closing out her career with three in succession. Perhaps most startling was Inside Information's 13-length rout of nine rivals in the 1995 Breeders' Cup Distaff…..

Unfortunately for Inside Information, she was nominated to the hall one year too late. Under the old rules, she almost surely would have been selected. Unless and until another once-in-a-decade Thoroughbred like Ruffian comes along, the same five Contemporary Female nominees could return on the ballot for many years. Why is there any reason to believe voters would change their ballot so that any of this quintet can be enshrined? [Troy Record]

I read that logic there in the last paragraph, and it makes me thankful for presidential term limits.

- Owner Kenneth Ramsey is once again subjecting himself to possible ridicule over his stallion Catienus. Check out this explanation for his running a maiden in the Belmont Stakes.

"I really don't think we have a shot of winning, but he's by our own sire, and I've got the mother, the brother, and the sister, and even if he can finish third it would really improve the family. I would consider that a success. If he's worse than third then we shouldn't have run him. I don't think he can beat Afleet Alex, who was my pick to win the Derby, and even though his final times by our system puts him even with Giacomo, we probably can't beat him either, based on his class advantage.” [Bloodhorse]

It was also because of Catienus that Ramsey got in trouble for offering a bribe to another owner to scratch her horse late last year so that his Ken Cat could draw in. It seems perhaps that Catienus has some inside information on Ramsey and is threatening to do a Deep Throat imitation.

The motive was to increase the chances of Ken's Cat's sire, Catienus, which Ramsey owns, being the leading first-year sire in the nation for 2004. [SignonSanDiego]

Well, I believe this article mispoke - he had less chance of being the leading first-year sire than Michael Jackson; but he was close to a million in earnings so perhaps that was the issue. Regardless, contrast Robert Bailes' agonizing over whether the Belmont would adversely effect the future of Scrappy T, a legitimate Belmont contender, to an owner that would throw his winless horse into a 12 furlong race against the best 3 yo in training just so he could maybe finish 3rd and make out some on his sire and siblings. Can we take back this guy's Eclipse award now?

Thursday Night Extra

- NYRA’s VP Bill Nader is looking for a crowd of 75,000 or higher for the June 11 Belmont Stakes.

NYRA's advertising will focus on the Giacomo vs. Afleet Alex rivalry as well as the incident in the Preakness when Scrappy T nearly knocked Afleet Alex to the ground. "That image," Nader said, "the athleticism and acrobatic response the horse and rider had is something that's been played and played and played, and casual fans are blown away by the accomplishment. We're pushing that hard."

America's oldest classic, scheduled for its 137th running, has come a long way in the last 10 years. If this year's crowd totals 75,000 it will double the attendance from 1995 and exceed the number who watched Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Affirmed win Triple Crowns in the 1970s. [Bloodhorse]

That easily has to be the only positive attendance trend at the downstate NYRA tracks at the very least. We’ll see what effect the increased admission prices will have. One of the main hooks in their advertising always was to stress that you could have all this excitement for just two bucks, five for the clubhouse. Still, the ten bucks is much less than Derby or Preakness fans pay....which of course leaves room for further increases to come in NY.

- Pico Central is back in training after taking some time off after his trip to Dubai. He worked 4f in a leisurely 53.20, perhaps depressed by the arrest of his owner Gary Tanaka.

- John Sheriffs will breeze his colt for a final time on Sunday, and ship the son of Holy Bull to Belmont on Wednesday or Thursday of race week. [Bloodhorse]

- Thoroughbred Times reports that Ken Ramsey will enter a maiden named Nolan’s Cove in the Belmont. He’s also a maiden who’s not even 100%.

"He has a bit of a stifle problem and we’re treating him for it, but at this point it looks like we’re going," Ramsey said. "He got out a little bit coming down the stretch [of the workout], so we had the veterinarians go over him with a fine tooth comb and they said he had a little stifle, and they thought they could work through that. If they can, we’re going." [Thoroughbred Times]

And is Bob Baffert really going to enter Sort It Out?

- This creepy video of the creepy man nominated to be ambassador to the U.N. is all over the progressive blogosphere today and linked here via Huffington Post. It shows in pretty clear terms why everything else - his abusive and vindictive treatment of those who disagree with him; his apparent lies under oath during his Senate testimony; the stubborn refusal by a White House that just will not back down to provide information requested by Senate Democrats and some Republicans as well - is really beside the point. Right here on this blog I linked to this article in the New Yorker which stated the case against Bolton long before any of the other issues surfaced. As always, Steve Clemons has the latest on what will transpire once the Senate reconvenes next week.

Thursday Night Notes - June 2

- Cash is King continues to roll, as their late developing 3 yo Kelsey’s Treasure won his second try in two starts at Delaware yesterday. He took his maiden race by 12 1/2 lengths, and yesterday won an entry allowance race by 3 at 1-5. Like his more famous stablemate, he’s also a son of Northern Afleet.

- Bobby Frankel confirmed what he hinted at the other day - Ghostzapper will not run in the July 4 Suburban Handicap. "He looks good and he's eating good, but I want to give him a little more time because he ran so hard.....The Suburban would be coming back soon after he just had a long layoff. [Bloodhorse] He also had an explanation for the fact that top horses run less often than in the past. "It's not the weakening of the breed," he said. "Horses are running faster now than they were 20 years ago." He also told Thoroughbred Daily News: “They’re running so fast, their legs can’t handle it. The faster they go, the better chance they have of getting hurt.” Frankel also lamented the lack of national television coverage of the Met Mile and pointed out that neither of his remaining races prior to the Breeders Cup will be on live national TV. The Suburban, however, will be telecast on ESPN2.

Dick Jerardi in the Form touches on the same topic:

The shame of it is that it happened in a vacuum. Did anybody beyond the hardcore fans even know Ghostzapper was running on Monday? Only 15,066 people were at Belmont Park to see a performance that was reminiscent of some of those by the great horses in American history.

Shouldn't somebody be promoting Ghostzapper? After all, he was the 2004 Horse of the Year. He has now won 9 of 11 starts and earned $3,446,120.
......
Ghostzapper is putting on a Beyer Speed Figure show to remember. Not since Formal Gold earned four Beyers above 120 in 1997 (and lost two of the races) has a horse done what Ghostzapper is doing.

Ghostzapper got a 122 Beyer in the Met. Last year, he got a 120 in the Tom Fool, a 128 in the Iselin, and a 124 in the Breeders' Cup Classic. [Daily Racing Form]

- Scrappy T had a quick workout - a bit too quick for his trainer Robert Bailes.

Bailes said a five-furlong work Thursday morning in "58 and change" was "a little quicker than we wanted, but he did it within himself. He ate his lunch up, and we'll give it a day or two to see how he is." [Bloodhorse]

According to the Form, he is “agonizing” over whether to run him.

"The main thing I'm concerned about is whether my horse is at the top of his game. If I don't believe we can win the race and the distance suits him, we'll look for something else. If he's physically ready to go, and we're sure the mile and a half won't hurt him down the road, we'll give it a shot." [Daily Racing Form]

It’s good to see that he’s thinking this over so carefully with the horse’s future in mind, and I think he’ll truly be ready if he runs. On the other hand....

D. Wayne Lukas, who trains A.P. Arrow, indicated he is almost certain to run in the Belmont. [DRF]

A Look Back, A Look Ahead

- Brad Free in the Form (sub. only) takes a look back at some of the Derby preps, and finds that for all the talk about the strength of the Florida contingent, it seems like the skepticism about the new Gulfstream configuration and schedule was right after all.

Despite winning twice at 1 1/8 miles, High Fly's campaign left him unprepared for the Derby. He was not alone. Sun King romped in a first-level allowance over a one-turn mile, then tailed off. Bellamy Road won a one-turn mile by more than 15 lengths, scored a more dramatic victory in the Wood Memorial, then finished nowhere and was injured in the Derby.
……..
At Gulfstream, the stakes program for 3-year-olds consists of only two parts - one-turn races at a mile and two-turn races at 1 1/8 miles.

Gulfstream is becoming similar to Keeneland in one regard - prep races there must be discounted.

That happened again this spring in Kentucky. The Blue Grass attracted a deep field, and Bandini turned the race into a farce, winning by six lengths. His poor showing in the Derby is tradition - Strike the Gold, in 1991, is the last horse to win the Blue Grass and Derby. [Daily Racing Form]

Incredibly, there are only two of the prime Derby candidates (and that’s including Giacomo, who one can argue barely fit that category) left standing at this point, and they came from the Arkansas and California divisions. It’s funny to think back to the days when names like Declan’s Moon, Rockport Harbor, Sweet Catomine, and even Scipion were at the top of the list of prospects. It makes Afleet Alex's accomplishments all the more impressive, especially considering that he had to overcome physical problems as well.

- One of those who dropped off the trail, Rockport Harbor, is working his way back for trainer John Servis.

Servis reported that Rockport Harbor, his talented 3-year-old colt, galloped Wednesday at Philadelphia Park for the first time since finishing sixth in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 23.

"He's been training for five days,'' Servis said. "Today we turned him around and galloped him and he went super. We're moving forward.'' [Daily Racing Form]

The Smarty Jones crew will be at Belmont on Saturday with Round Pond for the G1 Acorn Stakes for 3yo fillies. She flew 5f in 57.71 on Monday. "She's a late May foal and it took a little time for her to come around.''

- Though the suspected case of strangles at Belmont has still not been confirmed, NYRA officials are taking no chances and have set up a separate barn for all the shippers coming in for the Belmont.

We are fixing up a barn, which right now is barn 14, that will be completely secure and open to all shippers coming in for races on the Belmont Stakes Day card," New York Racing Association racing secretary Mike Lakow said Wednesday. "There are about 30 stalls there, which will be power washed, disinfected, painted and made totally secure." [Newsday]

Scrappy T will hopefully be amongst those taking up residence in barn 14, though I imagine he will be placed as far away from Afleet Alex as possible in case there are any hard feelings between the two over the Preakness. Scrappy T is supposed to have worked at Bowie this morning after which his connections will decide. I think this colt has a big shot in the Belmont. His Preakness continued a string of steadily improving figs, and it would have been higher if not for the incident. His sire Fit to Fight could win at any distance; he swept the old NYRA Handicap triple, taking the Met Mile, the Suburban at a mile and a quarter, and the Brooklyn at a mile and a half in 1984. He also had a second in the 7f Vosburgh to his credit, and Scrappy T has shown the potential to have the same kind of versatility. He’s out of a mare by Derby winner Sunny’s Halo, has inbreeding to Princequillo, speed and stamina, and I think he can get the distance as well as anyone else.

Belmont Musings - June 1

- D Wayne Lukas has this website at www.dwlukas.com. He’s totally in bed with youbet.com - it’s some kind of joint venture. They have two big banner ads on the front page and a picture of the “Hall of Fame Horse Trainer” sporting a youbet.com hat and a youbet.com sweatshirt, and I’ve seen him on TV with the hat as well. He has this page called "Wisdom," on which he shares his thoughts on subjects such as 'employees' (Gloom and doom mumbling makes for doom and gloom mumbling horses." ), 'life' ("Just because you win doesn't make you a winner; and just because you lose doesn't make you a loser."), and, of course, 'youbet.com' ("Youbet represents the future of our business."). He doesn’t explain anywhere on the site why he kept running Going Wild, but it does list his phone number as (562) 799-9206, so give him a call and ask. The fact that he’s considering running A.P. Arrow in the Belmont off his maiden win seems normal after the aforementioned fiasco. He got his maiden win in the slop at Churchill at a mile and a quarter against 5 challengers with an 88 fig.

This is quite a well-bred colt, an Allen Paulson homebred by Belmont winner A.P. Indy out of a Mr. Prospector mare. He’s a half brother to millionaire Geri and several other nice winners. His second dam is the stakes winner Far Flying; and his third dam is the unraced but prodigious producer Nalees Flying Flag, who in addition to Far Flying produced champion filly Sacahuista as well as Johns Treasure, who did not win a stakes but ran second by 1 1/4 lengths in the 1986 Belmont to Danzig Connection, the last of Woody Stephens’ five consecutive Belmont winners. Danzig Connection went off at 8-1, and I remember that the “smart guys” like me were figuring that only a romantic or an idiot would think that Stephens would win this one. The only other of the five that went off above 5-2 was the first one, Conquistador Cielo, who dominated over a sloppy track at 4-1. He had won the Met Mile five days earlier, and I seem to recall Andy Beyer saying he couldn’t win....or maybe it was because his dosage was over, but there was some dumb reason he was supposed to lose that I fell for, and I recall hanging my head after that one.

Excellent job by the Form, they have the pp’s for the prospective Belmont field available for free here (pdf). What really jumps out right away is that 114 Beyer on Oratory in the Peter Pan, who is included in the pp’s even though he apparently isn’t running. Even with him out, Peter Pan second place runner Reverberate has the second best Beyer fig in this field. He’s another one by a Belmont winner, his sire being Thunder Gulch. He’s out of a mare by the Darby Dan star and 1986 BC Classic winner Proud Truth, who I don’t notice much in pedigrees. He’s listed in the stallion register as still doing stud duty in Panama for $5,000.

Next Act Please

- The results are in from school districts in Pennsylvania regarding Act 72, and the result is not pretty for Governor Ed Rendell, who made property tax relief one of the main issues in his election campaign. But the plan, which would have required school boards to put property tax increases up for voter approval in return for property owners receiving slots-funded cuts, proved about as popular as the European Constitution, and was rejected by about 400 of the 500 districts.

According to an article in the NY Times today, Pennsylvania is in fact the only state where school boards are virtually unfettered in their abilities to increase property taxes. So in order to participate and allow property tax cuts, the boards would have had to voluntarily relinquish that right, and Rendell, in a classic understatement, said, "It probably was a flawed concept to allow the people whose power you are restricting to vote on this.” [NY Times] Seems as flawed as the idea that the minority Sunni Arabs in Iraq would peacefully participate in elections. The governor is seeking to place the blame squarely on the school boards.

Rendell said he believed that 99 percent of the districts that stayed out of the plan did so because local school officials wanted to hold on to their own power to tax, an argument those officials rejected.

"We were listening to our constituents," said Rob Morgan, a school board member in the Pottstown, Montgomery County, school district and a vocal Act 72 opponent.[Philly Inquirer]

Remember that the property-tax cut would have been accompanied by an income tax increase that would have cancelled out the cut for high-income residents, and made the whole deal a loser for renters. Now, there are various ideas about how to proceed, including a proposal to put the question directly to the homeowners.

The Act 72 mess could be small potatoes compared to the debacle Rendell could find himself over Act 71, which is the bill that actually legalized slots in the state. It is being challenged in court as being unconstitutional, and a decision is expected soon. The state constitution states that ''no bill shall be so altered or amended, on its passage through either House, as to change its original purpose.''

The pending challenge to the slots law now before the state Supreme Court is that an original one-page bill authorizing state police background checks for employees of horse racing tracks was heard three times in the House and twice in the Senate, appeasing the state Constitution. However, on final required consideration in the Senate, the original bill was completely lined out and replaced with a 145-page amendment legalizing slots gambling in Pennsylvania. With no conference and no debate, both chambers gave it thumbs up, and Gov. Rendell signed it into law, all while we grilled burgers and weenies over 2004's Fourth of July weekend. [McCall.com]

- More on the Hall of Fame voting – the rules were changed this year to require that an inductee be named on 75% of the ballots. Thus, there were no inductees amongst the jockey and horse nominations.

None of the jockeys on the ballot — Eddie Maple, Craig Perret, Randy Romero, Jose Santos and Milo Valenzuela — received the necessary 75%. The last year at least one jockey wasn't elected was 1986.

"I told them that this would happen," said Joe Hirsch, retired Daily Racing Form columnist and a former chairman of the hall's nominating committee. "[Somebody] got this 75% idea about 20 years ago, and they finally resurrected it. You can't get 75% of any group to agree about anything. I would certainly hope that they change this rule."

Silver Charm, who won the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and the Dubai World Cup, earning almost $7 million, seemed to be a favorite in the male-horse category, but he was up against formidable opposition. Also on the ballot were Lure, a two-time Breeders' Cup winner; the grass standout Manila; Housebuster, twice a champion sprinter; and Best Pal.

The female-horse ballot, which consisted of Inside Information, Mom's Command, Open Mind, Silverbulletday and Sky Beauty, was also a tough vote. [LA Times]

Silver Charm called for a recount.

Belmont Rants

- Belmont favorite Afleet Alex worked out at Pimlico, where he’s been stranded since last weekend due to the suspected strangles case in New York. Alex was clocked in fractions of :14, :26 2/5, :38, and :49 4/5 for the half mile. He was caught galloping out six furlongs in 1:14 2/5, pulling up seven panels in 1:29. He did this all with no reported stumbles either. Tim Ritchey plans to ship him up here on Saturday, as long as everything is under control. Jockey Jeremy Rose is starting to sound rather cocky:

"None of them really scare me….. are very nice horses, very accomplished horses. They have to be to run in this race, but as long as Alex is under me, he does the talking. He just does what he does and pretty much silences everybody, especially after the Preakness. Now they are saying he can't go a mile and a half. Do you think it would have mattered in that race? If it were a mile and a half, how many more would we have won by?" [Bloodhorse]

Well, you could have said the same thing about Funny Cide and Smarty Jones, who both drew away to impressive Preakness wins. It doesn’t work that way for a mile and a half, or for Belmont. One of Alex’s great attributes is his agility and his ability to scoot by his opponents on the turn as he did at Pimlico and in the Arkansas Derby (and to a lesser extent in the Derby). The sweeping turns at Belmont will partly mitigate that advantage, and there’s still no guarantee that he (or anyone else) will get the Belmont distance. I see the Belmont as an opportunity to bet against the favorite and have some fun with it; if he wins, then all due respect to the best (healthy) 3 yo around.

Wow, Oratory got a 114 Beyer for the Peter Pan – that’s higher than Afleet Alex’s Preakness 112. Perhaps the Beyer folks should use the Timeform method of putting a “+” sign next to a fig like Alex's to indicate that his effort was really better than the number indicates. Still, Oratory is not going in the Belmont, but runnerup Reverberate and maiden-only winner Chekhov may. The latter’s owner-trainer team of Tabor-Biancone shows even less respect for their own horses than they do for the game. The owner paid $3.3 million for this colt, and you can bet your bottom dollar he’ll be rushed to the breeding shed soon after he earns some black type….if he ever does so.

- I don’t know of any other sport in which people get elected to the Hall of Fame before they retire. I guess it’s the only way to honor them with an induction since many trainers don’t ever retire. Auto racing maybe? Or do you have to be killed in a fiery crash to qualify? The only requirement is that the trainer be active for 25 years. Nick Zito has been eligible for 8 years, but didn’t even reach finalist status until last year, and yesterday he became this year’s sole flat racing inductee. Others elected during Zito's time of eligibility were Phil Johnson, Bill Mott, D. Wayne Lukas, Neil Drysdale, Richard Mandella, Bud Delp and Sonny Hine. [Louisville Courier-Journal] Here’s a Zito fact sheet, from the same Courier-Journal piece:

134 stakes victories.

83 graded stakes victories.

24 Grade I stakes victories.

Two champions: Storm Song, '96 2-year-old filly; 2003, Bird Town, 3-year-old filly.

Won the Grade I Champagne at Belmont Park four times, including three years in a row: 1998 (The Groom is Red), '99 (Greenwood Lake), 2000 (A P Valentine).

Won the Blue Grass at Keeneland three times: '91 Strike the Gold, '98 Halory Hunter, 2004 The Cliff's Edge.

Won the Kentucky Derby twice, Pimlico Special twice, the Wood Memorial twice, the Remsen twice and the Bed o' Roses twice.

Has won five races with $1 million purses.

In 1996, Louis Quatorze won the Preakness in 1:532/5, equaling Tank's Prospect's stakes record. The time remains the stakes record.

On May 7, 2003, Najran equaled Dr. Fager's world record for 1 mile on the dirt with a time of 1:32.24.