Sometimes You Just Gotta Laugh

- There were some upsets in stakes races over the weekend – some big ones such as Diplomat Lady taking the Hollywood Starlet at 39-1, and some mild ones like Brother Derek taking the Hollywood Futurity as the 7-2 third choice.

But for me, the biggest surprise of the weekend was a win by a 7-10 shot. I’d become so married to the idea that Andromeda’s Hero would never, ever win any race, at least any one shorter than around two and a sixteenth miles, that I tossed him out of Saturday’s Fred W. Hooper Handicap at Calder with as much confidence as I could ever do so with an odds-on favorite. (I also found it rather ironic that this horse would be such a short price in a race named after a man who made his mark primarily with sprinters.) The presence of his stablemate Seek Gold didn’t faze me in the least, and I was actually laughing out loud as the entry’s price got hammered from an opening of 6-5. I should know by now not to do stuff like that.

There were obviously no horses in the field such as the kind that Andromeda’s Hero had been chasing all year, but there were others with at least competitive figs and a touch of class (though the truth is I would have bet against him even if he was facing a field of retired catchers.) So I used Military Major on top in some exactas and triples, reluctantly tossing in Andromeda’s Hero for third.

And as they came down the stretch in a race in which it didn’t look for a nanosecond that Zito’s entry would NOT win the race, the sound you may have heard in the Manhattan room up on the third floor of the Big A was me laughing out loud again. At myself. Because not only did Andromeda’s Hero pass his stablemate with ease to get his first win since March at Tampa Bay, but it was another seven lengths back from Seek Gold to the third place horse. I think it may have be the wrongest I’ve ever been about a race; and if you can’t laugh at yourself from time to time in this game, then perhaps you don’t have the proper temperament for it. After all, how often are even the best horseplayers actually right? (Besides, I knew that, as ESPN's Ed McNamara wrote when he also picked against the pair, the entry is a terrible bet at odds-on even if it runs 1-2).

Take for example this guy sitting at a table nearby. He was losing all day, and letting everyone know about it. But as they came down the stretch in the 7th at Laurel, and Red Gulch came surging on the outside at 23-1, the one lone voice screaming “GO FOUR, GO FOUR!” was, happily, this guy. However, even this didn’t make him happy. “I can’t believe I ONLY wheel two dollar exactas! If I spend $52 instead of $26, then I win SIX hundred. With my luck, the favorite HAS to come in second and I ONLY win three!” This was obviously one of those gentleman who will never be happy at the track, always finding something to complain about, and it would probably do him well to find some other pastime.

Happily, I was rewarded for my good sportsmanship and ability to laugh and shake it off by hitting Laurel’s 9th, a rare, for me, win-only bet on drop-down Power of the Porgi ($17.40). And that was after also having hit the 6th exacta at Aqueduct (though I did in this case mumble just a little bit to myself about the $80 payoff resulting from a 10-1 shot over a 7-2 favorite in a nine horse field…that seems a bit short, don’t it?) Since I pick my spots, bet exotics almost exclusively and always demand good value, I can literally go weeks and weeks without cashing a single ticket. Being able to weather the long losing streaks with at least a bit of frivolity is crucial, I think, to anyone being successful. Given the way I bet, it only takes a couple of scores to make up for a lot of losing days, and when I nailed the 8th race triple at the Big A on Sunday ($190.50) with my only wager of the day, it capped a successful weekend after a long drought.

- Of course, my successes did not include the two juvenile stakes races at Hollywood this past weekend, for which I picked losers for both right here on this blog. Are you guys mad at me when I tell you that I didn’t bet either of them myself? :-/ Does handicapping ethics demand that I back up my picks with my own money, or is just making a fool of myself and feeling bad about it enough penance? In the case of the Hollywood Futurity, I felt the price just wasn’t right on A.P. Warrior at 5-2, as I fretted more and more about his outside post as the race approached. The starting gate at a mile and a sixteenth at Hollywood is practically on top of the turn, at least according to the diagram in the Form. Not sure though if his wide trip around the first turn was enough to account to his disappointing 4th place effort. And in the Hollywood Starlet, I think that 3-1 was actually more than fair on Meetmeinthewoods, but the truth is that I was at a 5 P.M. Rangers game. So I just missed the race, and given that I’d had a good weekend, I didn’t bother playing it blind without knowing what her odds would be. The Rangers lost, so there’s my punishment.

In any event, they were both good races, and Brother Derek moves towards the top of the Derby list with his win. Trainer Dan Hendricks reiterated that his colt prefers two turns, and said that the horse really seemed to blossom after his 4th in the Juvenile. "For some reason, he just matured from then until now….We just started to see him ripple and grow up some more. I don't know what brought it about, but it was good timing." [LA Times] Your Tent Or Mine acquitted himself very well in his first route try, and I don’t think that Bob Baffert or most anyone else had much sympathy for Pat Valenzuela when he bitched about getting slammed by the winner leaving the gate.

Starlet winner Diplomat Lady (Forestry) is the first Grade 1 winner for her trainer Chris Paasch. She had two poor races at Del Mar on her pp lines which contributed to her long odds, but the trainer explained that the filly was sick. "We went over and over this filly and found some ulcers, but she still wouldn't give 100….We looked deeper into her lungs and found she had a pretty serious lung infection." [LA Times] Unlike Your Tent Or Mine, Meetmeinthewoods had no apparent excuse other, of course, the fact that she was racing in a Grade 1 stakes in her second lifetime start. Wouldn't give up on this one yet.

Meetmeatthewindows

- Sunday’s Grade 1 Starlet at Hollywood for two-year old fillies is a bit of a handicapping puzzle, as most of the contenders are stretching out in distance and/or stepping up sharply in class. The likely favorite is Balance (Thunder Gulch), winner of the inaugural Sharp Cat stakes at the same mile and a sixteenth route. Her trainer David Hofmans feels that "If she runs that race again, it should be enough." [Thoroughbred Time] Perhaps. We just don’t know if one of the others can step up, but if Balance is indeed the betting choice, it could be worth a shot to go against her. No doubt she was visually impressive in the Sharp Cat, pulling Victor Espinoza to the lead and holding sway without too much urging. But it wasn’t the greatest field in the world, and the fact that she was the 9-5 favorite despite it being her first dirt race after two turf efforts attests to that.

The two fillies that ran one-two in the seven furlong Moccasin stakes, Private World (Thunder Gulch) and True Xena (Yes It’s True), return here for their first efforts around two turns. Private World’s trainer Bob Hess, Jr., said "If she's within range of doing it, I think she'll have the heart. In terms of her heart and desire, I don't think she'll be outdone." [Daily Racing Form] That’s apparent to anyone who watched her gritty win in the Moccasin; she looked beaten by True Xena in deep stretch, but battled back on the inside to win by an imperceptible head-bobbing nose. The presence of distance influences like Temperance Hill and Storm Bird close up in her breeding suggests she may go on. For True Xena, the Moccasin was just her second race, coming off her maiden win, and she gave no ground despite suffering the heartbreaking defeat. Being out of an Unbridled mare should add some stamina to her speedy sire line breeding.

But hey, I’m just filling some space before getting to Meetmeinthewoods (General Meeting). She’s stepping up to Grade 1 company from a six furlong maiden win, but that race was so spectacular that it needs no further explanation. Please check it out on the Cal Racing site if you haven’t yet seen it. Meetmeinthewoods was wedged between horses down the backstretch, which could present a problem for an ordinary first-time starter, but she was unfazed as she effortlessly, and I mean effortlessly, edged to the lead around the turn and drew away in the stretch. Jockey Corey Nakatani expended far more energy looking behind him throughout the race than he did riding this filly, yet she threw in an eighth of :11 4/5 leaving the quarter pole, and then cruised home in :12 3/5 under a long hold, according to the chart. And this was after an opening quarter of :21 3/5! This all added up to a final time of 1:08 3/5.

As far as trying this distance, trainer Doug O’Neill concedes that it’s “a mystery".

"The only blessing is the General Meeting angle," he said, referring to her sire. "She's built like a router and covers a lot of ground. We've been high on her since the first time we breezed her." [Daily Racing Form]

General Meeting is by Seattle Slew, and she has plenty of distance influence close up in her pedigree (Alydar, Nijinsky, Nureyev, Buckpasser), and a tidy dosage index of 2.06. Having seen that debut, I can’t help but be all over her on Sunday if she's not too short of a price.

The Work of Fools

- In New York, the Committee on the Future of Racing has scheduled hearings for late next month to consider ways in which to improve the business of racing in the state. The committee will, at some point next year, perhaps in the spring, be issuing its Request For Proposals from parties interested in taking over the racing franchise, and the hope is that people from the racing industry will attend the meetings, scheduled for Jan 24 in Albany and the next day in NYC. 'We are looking for people who have something to say about the system now and how it can be improved in the future,' said committee member Bernadette Castro, the state parks system's commissioner. [The Saratogian]

You may recall that Governor Pataki’s bid to install Ms. Castro as the new head of the State Racing and Wagering Board was rebuffed earlier this month, but she still hopes to win the appointment.

Castro said she is looking forward to the appointment but can't say when it will happen.

She said she would be a good fit because the Castro family has owned a farm surrounded by horse country in Ocala, Fla., for 40 years. She said her post in charge of state parks has prepared her for managing the sport of racing, as several equine trails have been developed by her office. [Albany Times-Union]

(A response to an email inquiry confirmed that she said this with a straight face.) If a few horse trails makes her qualified to assume such a crucial position in the industry, I can think of some people who may be even more capable. How about NYC Police Commissioner Ray Kelly? After all, his department maintains a fine stable of equines for its mounted police. Better yet, how about former commissioner Bernard Kerik, who in addition to having managed the mounted cops has also shown that he’s full of horseshit. (And to think that the president nominated this guy to lead our Homeland Security.)

Or how about Dr. Steven E. Sanderson? He’s the President of the Wildlife Conservation Society, which manages the Bronx Zoo. I don’t think there are any horses there, but there are zebras, and they’re almost horses, right? Or maybe Patti Smith! I mean, she’s been celebrating the 30th anniversary of her legendary album, Horses! The next thing you know, Castro will be telling us that she’s qualified to be the next leader of Cuba!

Racing in New York is approaching a crossroads; a chance to right everything that’s wrong. Instead, things seem to be getting worse. NYRA is nearing bankruptcy and has been foiled by the state in their attempts to raise money; the State Lottery will not allow them to start construction of the Aqueduct casino and no one knows exactly why, though you can bet that someone higher up in Albany is involved. The State Racing and Wagering Board is leaderless as Pataki and Senate Republican leader Joseph Bruno wage their petty battles. The Committee on the Future of Racing, whose job is to determine just that at this most crucial time, is three members short, because Democratic Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver has not made his appointments, perhaps because he’s waiting for Democrat Eliot Spitzer to become the next governor. And Bernadette Castro wants to bring her vast experience in managing horse trails to the most important position in the state’s racing hierarchy.

Patti Smith once wrote that the “People have the power / To redeem the work of fools,” but in this case the damage may be beyond repair.

Derby Fever at Xmas Time

- You can probably toss half of the field, including the three maidens in Saturday’s Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity, but the four top contenders will look to stamp themselves as legitimate (living) contenders for the Kentucky Derby. Beau Greeley has entered two non-winners that look particularly hopeless ("You know me. I'm not afraid.") The other, Jealous Profit, has actually shown decent thirds in the Norfolk and Del Mar Futurity and would be a surprising though not impossible victor. Old Thunder was the even money favorite when 4th against Your Tent Or Mine in the Hollywood Prevue, and when you hear his trainer say of his entry here that "It was an owners' decision," well, that pretty much says it all. [Bloodhorse]

Your Tent Or Mine (Forest Camp) may be the favorite based on his spectacular clock-busting win in the seven furlong Prevue, in which he lagged a bit behind the field before exploding between horses like a far more experienced colt, stopping the clock in a meet-best 1:21, with the final 3/8ths in 36 flat. The Futurity, at a mile and a sixteenth, will be his first try around two turns, but trainer Neil Drysdale is not worried. “He relaxes. He's got a good attitude." [LA Daily News]

Bob and John (Seeeking the Gold) was 1-5 when he was DQ’d in the Real Quiet; he wasn’t facing anything like these. He stormed home impressively in the stretch that day, but he’ll have to turn the tables on A.P. Warrior, who beat him by four lengths in an allowance on Nov 4. You know that Bob Baffert is desperate to get back to the Derby this year, and he has his eye on the big picture. "He's maturing. It's exciting when you've got a horse that's talented. He's still got a ways to go, but by springtime, he's going to be a really good horse." [Daily Racing Form]

But is he good enough now to turn the tables on A.P. Warrior (A.P. Indy)? Watching that race, it’s really striking to see the contrast between the riders of each colt. As Victor Espinoza was whipping and driving on Bob and John, Valenzeula (who understandably switches here to Your Tent Or Mine) was going easy on A.P Warrior, and that was after he was visibly straining to keep the colt a couple of lengths off the lead. Trainer Eoin Harty said: “I don't think he wants to be on the lead….I want to teach him to relax. He has a good turn of foot. He always breaks so sharp and he finds himself on the lead.” [DRF]

Not in the Norfolk though; he found himself sixth early, and couldn’t quite make up enough ground to catch Brother Derek (Benchmark), who subsequently ran 4th in the Juvenile. Brother Derek's trainer Dan Hendricks said ”I'm optimistic that he's better going two turns than one turn," and he told Thoroughbred Times, "He came out of the Breeders’ Cup great….He has gained weight and is training well. It looks like a pretty salty lineup, but I wouldn’t trade places with anybody."

I'm thinking that Your Tent Or Mine will be the favorite as he looks to go on in his first route attempt. But if he is a short price, I'll look for a value play. Picks: A.P. Warrior, Your Tent Or Mine, Brother Derek

- Next month, the Sport of Kings will present the Horse of the Year award to Saint Liam, trained by Richard Dutrow, who was suspended this year for illegal medication; and may very well give the trainer award to Todd Pletcher, whose 45-day suspension for the same substance was upheld by the New York State Racing and Wagering Board. “It's a powerful substance that can block a nerve," racing board chairwoman Cheryl Buley said. "We have to take that very seriously." [Bloodhorse] We’ll see if the Eclipse voters do too.

Ride Sally Ride

- As I mentioned the other day, Shug McGaughey is off to a fine start on the inner track at the Big A. He has another impeccably bred Phipps horse going in the feature on Thursday, the Ride Sally stakes for three-year old, non-stakes winning fillies. Another one being brought along with the kind of patience that many other outfits lack, Dream Time will be stretching out to a two-turn route for the first time. She’s by Storm Cat, out of the Phipps grade 1 winner Fantastic Find and thus a full sister to their multiple grade 1 winner Finder’s Fee. Her second dam is Blitey, and her third is Lady Pitt....so I’m guessing she’ll handle the distance. She’s listed as the 7-2 second choice, and in truth, she’ll have to step up as far as her Beyers go and greatly improve over her last dull effort against this sort; but ignore her at your own risk. (Of course, if you’ve been following me lately, you know that you listen to me at your own significant peril.)

The morning line favorite at 9-5 is Ms. Louisa Quartoze, winner of three out of her last four at Delaware and Laurel with Beyers that tower over the rest of these; and she’s won her last two by a combined 16 ¾ lengths. But she hasn’t beaten much, and faced just three others in her last. This is a real interesting betting race, with a couple other blue-blooded fillies worth a look. Pleasant Laughter (Coronado’s Quest) has improved of late for Phil Serpe at one turn routes and tries a second turn for the first time; her second dam, stakes winner Classic Reign, is a half to millionaires Regal Classic and Sky Classic. And check out Spun Silk at 15-1 in the morning line for Kiaran McLaughlin ; her last was a 13 length win at Philly Park in her first two-turn try in a pretty slow Beyer of 60. But she’s by AP Indy out of a Wild Again half sister to Tale of the Cat and Myth, the dam of champion Johannesburg. And her second dam is a half to Preach, the dam of Pulpit. (This is the same female family as Point of Impact, the Baffert two-year old mentioned in the previous post.)

Grade Ones at Hollywood

- Grade 1 races for two-year olds at Hollywood Park this weekend. The Eclipse for the boys was decided in the Futurity last year, but this year the title is already presumably wrapped up by Juvenile winner Stevie Wonderboy. Let’s see if Merv has straightened out that misinformation about Beyer figures on his website. Nope, it’s still there. He calls himself a horseman and he doesn't read my blog? Stevie worked five furlongs in 1:02.40 on Wednesday; he’s preparing for his three-year old debut in the San Rafael on Jan 14. It’ll be his first start around two turns, which shouldn’t pose a problem on paper, but you never know. [Trainer Doug] O'Neill envisions a three-race preparation for Stevie Wonderboy before the Kentucky Derby. [Daily Racing Form]

The Futurity will be run around two turns at a mile and a sixteenth, and Bob Baffert’s Bob and John (Seeking the Gold) has been there, done that three times. He’ll be trying to avenge his controversial DQ loss in the Real Quiet stakes last month. On Sunday, Bob and John worked 5f in 1:01 3/5. Also working for the Futurity was Norfolk winner Brother Derek (4th in the Juvenile); the son of Benchmark (Alydar) got 5f in a minute flat; his trainer Dan Hendricks said "He did it in a gallop... . Alex [Solis] said he is stronger and more mature than he was going into the Breeders' Cup." [Bloodhorse]

Other probable starters are A.P. Warrior, Bashert..... Ecru Egret, Kobayashi, and Your Tent or Mine. [DRF]

On Sunday, the girls will go in the G1 Starlet, and much attention will be on Meetmeinthewoods (General Meeting), a runaway winner of her debut for O’Neill in 1:08.75. She worked six furlongs in 1:13 on Sunday. According to the Form, Sharp Cat winner Balance (Thunder Gulch), had an unrecorded workout of five furlongs in 1:00.60 on Wednesday. Also expected for the Starlet are Moccasin winner and runner-up Private World (Thunder Gulch) and True Xena (Yes It’s True), and the latter had a blazing work of five furlongs in :58 3/5. "It was a little faster than I wanted, but Jon said she did it on her own," said trainer Rafael Becerra after the move under jockey Jon Court. [Bloodhorse]

- Jay Privman in the Form takes a look at the recent struggles of Bob Baffert, and lists some of the extremely expensive failures he’s had in his barn of late.

Smart Again, who cost $500,000 as a weanling in November 2000. Extra cost $975,000 as a yearling in 2001. Stand and Fight was a $775,000 yearling purchase in 2001 whose first win came in a $25,000 maiden-claiming race. Contribute ($775,000) and Scenic Wonder ($625,000) were yearling purchases of 2001, and Truckle Feature ($500,000) was a 2-year-old buy in the spring of 2002. No need to worry if you've never heard of most, or any, of them.

There's more. From the next crop, there was the expensive bust Sea of Secrets, who cost $2.7 million as a 2-year-old in training in March 2003, along with yearling buys Work ($950,000) and Consistent ($700,000). [Daily Racing Form]

Privman points out that he also has an $8 million Storm Cat colt who has not yet raced in this, his two-year old year, ouch. All this money could have been better spent, of course; it could finance the war for about three and a half hours or so. Baffert said, "Some of those horses with great pedigrees, they're slow.”

But he’s optimistic, as usual, for the coming year, despite the untimely passing of What A Song. In addition to Bob and John, he has an unraced Point Given colt named Point of Impact who, according to Walter in Las Vegas, has been bet from 300/1 down to 75/1 @ Wynn, and 100/1 down to 60/1 @ Bally's in the Derby futures wagering. That colt has already gotten a mention by Haskin, which I don’t know whether is good or bad, along with Regal Legacy, a Monarchos colt who cost $550,000.

- Declan's Moon is not quite ready to resume training, at least not at the track, and is headed back to the farm for a month. "He came out well on the nuclear scan, but the X-rays showed he has a little way to go," [trainer Ron] Ellis said.

- That $5 million land sale that NYRA needs is still not finalized, and CEO Charles Hayward warns that they will run out of cash - really and truly - by the end of the month if the sale is not completed. "We’re in discussions with the Port Authority.....The problem is they haven’t decided what land they’re interested in." [Thoroughbred Times] Hayward also said that NYRA is still, unbelievably, waiting for approval to start construction on their casino. There ain’t no way this thing is going to be ready by next fall as originally anticipated, and it’s quite possible that, if NYRA is still in charge, we could see this same sad scenario repeating itself next year once the Saratoga money runs out. They need the New York State Division of the Lottery to approve the contract with MGM Grand. I don’t want any of you to get in the habit of expecting me to do any real reporting here, but damn it, I’m going to call these guys tomorrow and ask them what the hell the holdup is. I guess they’re too busy getting people to piss away their money on stuff like this.

Gelded Cat

- Highland Cat has returned to the farm in Pennsylvania, where he will be gelded (ouch!) and given a bit more in the way of learning how to be a race horse. We expect him back at Billy Turner’s barn sometime in March, and the trainer remains optimistic. Meanwhile, the 4th and final member of our team, the yet-to-be-named Vicar filly, is now with Turner and will commence training. The goal is still to sell her out of the barn, as Turner did with Mum’s the Word (Real Quiet), but I wouldn’t be upset if we kept her, as I’m quite excited about her pedigree. Besides the fact that I loved Vicar as a racehorse and that he’s off to a pretty good start at stud, her dam (by Belong to Me) is a half to million dollar earner Fit For A Queen, the dam of Zito’s stakes winner Royal Assault, and the granddam of stakes winning siblings Ender’s Shadow and Ender’s Sister.

She also has some interesting inbreeding, including 5x5 to Lady Angela, who is her 5th dam and the dam of Nearctic, the sire of Northern Dancer, and this filly’s great-great-grandsire. So there’s all kind of stuff going on here, including the Rasmussen Factor. But hopefully, she can run a little.

- Mentioned Philanthropist yesterday, and the Form reports that McGaughey said he believes that Philanthropist could blossom into a Grade 1-caliber stakes horse and has already penciled in the $500,000 Donn Handicap on Feb. 4 as an early target in 2006. Shug has three winners in seven starters on the Big A inner track, and keep an eye on two more coming up: Dream Time is entered in Thursday's $65,000 Ride Sally Stakes, while Strategy is being pointed to Saturday's $75,000 Ladies Handicap.

Smuggler, who is from the same female family is back in training down at Gulfstream.

In the same article we learn that trainer Linda Rice begins serving a 20-day suspension, reduced from 45 because she didn’t appeal, for a drug positive returned on her Motor City Mama after that filly won on October 2 at Belmont.

In addition to the suspension, Rice was fined $1,000. In her absence, Rice's horses in New York will run under assistant trainer Celine Parrilla's name.

Gee, well that’s another real harsh penalty – a thousand bucks and a 20 day vacation while her horses continue to race. Some trainers probably look at this like a NYC deliveryman views a parking summons – just another cost of doing business.

- Had a chance to take a look at Wilko’s close third at Golden Gate on Saturday. Nice effort, with a ton of excuses. That’s a familiar scenario for this colt, who now has lost 14 of his 17 starts. But in this case, we could possibly buy it. After all, it was his first race since the Preakness, and he did quite well to close (in 22.75 and 11.42) at just six furlongs. He’s headed next for the Malibu, which would be just 16 days rest. Attila’s Storm, the winner of the Fall Highweight, is also being pointed for that one, and I’d read Surf Cat mentioned as well.

- Reader, blogger, and, unlike yours truly, recent winning horse-owner Tote Board Brad railed at the press in the comments section here, and rightly so, for its lack of comprehensive coverage of the Jockeys’ Guild scandal, and as if on cue, the LA Times checks in today with an exhaustive piece that summarizes the whole unseemly affair. The only criticism I have is that it’s lumped into the sports section, whereas I think that a little more mainstream coverage is definitely in order at this point. And why not? I mean, lies, extortion, corruption, phony resumes, assault, theft of shoes and heads……c’mon, people love this stuff, how about a little front page action? Readers of Left at the Gate are familiar with most of the information in the article, but there are a few interesting tidbits and details here that I hadn’t seen previously.

Pepperdine University, where Gertmenian still teaches, released a statement saying that its administrators are "deeply concerned over allegations stemming from Dr. Gertmenian's involvement with the Jockeys' Guild," and have begun an investigation. Well, it’s about time! Gertmenian’s resume was discredited months before the Congressional hearing, yet it’s still posted as fact on the university’s website. There’s at least one other apparent lie on it besides his claims of employment in the Nixon and Ford Administrations:

Ryan LaHurd, president of the New York-based Near East Foundation, told The Times that Gertmenian had never served on the institution's board of directors, as claimed on the professor's resume posted on Pepperdine's website.

Gertmenian was one of a "loose collection of persons" who occasionally acted as advisors but "had no official function," LaHurd said in an e-mail.

is definitely worth a look, even if you have to go through the annoying registration process.

- Totally off-topic but certainly relevant in the wake of the recent 25th anniversary of John Lennon's murder, this MP3 file is a recording of a scan of the FM dial in New York City on the night of the shooting. A poignant little time capsule of a very tragic night, via WFMU's Beware of the Blog, which is filled with other priceless material and well worth a few hours of your time.

Putrid Picks

- My picks were putrid this past weekend, as was any other handicapping and wagering I did (which fortunately, wasn't that much). Ugh, sorry. At least I can blame Walter for one of them. I was at least right about Evening Attire not winning the Queens County at Aqueduct, though he once again ran his heart out; his poor start may have cost him the race. I was kicking myself a bit though, about not having the winner Philanthropist. This Phipps colt had pp’s that reminded me a bit of those of Happy Hunting, an allowance winner on Thursday, and even of Pleasant Home. All three are four–year olds who improved late in the year for Shug McGaughey. Happy Hunting actually never started until he was four.

And, of course, he’s impeccably bred in the Phipps way. Philanthropist is by Kris S. out of Hidden Reserve (Mr. Prospector) a graded-placed performer for the Phipps barn, and a half to Phipps stars Educated Risk and Inside Information, the dam of Smuggler, an outside possibility for an Eclipse as top three-year old filly. Hidden Reserve is also the dam of Defer. I scoffed at him as a Derby candidate this past spring, but chances are that he’ll be winning stakes races late in 2006. Perhaps the Classic at 45-1?

In the Native Diver at Hollywood, I knew I was dead with my longshot Courtly Jazz when Simon Bray on TVG picked him as a single in the Pick Four. Nothing against Bray, but how many times do you see these guys correctly single 14-1 shots? For the winner, the 2004 Chilean Horse of the Year Trotamondo, that’s two wins in as many U.S. starts; could be a nice one for Laura De Seroux, who said, hopefully, "I think he is the best thing we've had on our hands on since Azeri.” [LA Times]

- Trainer Richard Violette, Jr. is red hot over the inner track, and in particular with two-year olds. On Saturday, Violette sent out juvenile winner Trailing Twelve ($12.40). His prior race had been a second place finish in a sprint at the Meadowlands; here he stretched out to 1 1/16. He’s a son of first year sire Five Star Day (Carson City), who stands for $15,000 in 2006, up from $10,000. Ten of Five Star Day's 21 starters have won (62 in the crop), with one stakes winner (Within Reason). The fact that he was strictly a sprinter has not kept the mares away – he was bred to 141 in 2005.

So, wouldn’t you know it, on Sunday, Violette sent out another juvenile winner, Hundred Year Flood, a Giant’s Causeway colt out of stakes winner High Heeled Hope, who was also stretching out after finishing second in a sprint at the Meadowlands, and for the same owner, Klaravich Stable, as well. You may say oh good, what good does this do now? Alas, I missed it too, so you’re only getting the red-boarding version here. This one paid $8.50. We obviously won't let him get away with another one of these so quietly. Violette also had two runner-ups on Sunday's card, including two-year old Borrowing Base, who ran second at 6-1 to an even money Pletcher colt. His three year old filly Popular Delusions ran second in the Twist Afleet stakes to 32-1 bombshell Grecian Wings. The preceding weekend, Violette sent out two-year old winners Laptop Computer and Spenny.

News and Notes - Dec 12

- Anyone who still has doubts as to just how messed up the racing industry is in New York just needs to read this article in the NY Times today. It seems that Yonkers Raceway is collecting millions of dollars from the state’s OTBs, even though it hasn’t conducted any racing since June. In an effort to generate more betting revenue, the OTBs made a deal with the state legislature in 2003 whereby they could broadcast more out-of-state thoroughbred races and less from Yonkers, which had been running mind-numbingly dull races around its half-mile harness track. In return, according to the Times, the track would continue to receive the same monies it had before. Almost immediately, Yonkers began to run fewer races. It was not hard to see why. It was going to be paid the same amount no matter how many races it ran.

Or, even if it doesn’t run any races at all, which has been the case since Yonkers shut down in order to facilitate the construction of a slots parlor.

Recriminations were immediate. Off Track Betting officials set their sights on State Senator Nicholas A. Spano, a Westchester Republican who some see as the protector of the race track's interests.

Racing "is the only industry in which we allow this nonsensical thing to go on," said State Senator John D. Sabini, the ranking Democrat on the Senate's racing committee. "I am stupefied that Yonkers would do this, and I would suspect Nick Spano had his hand in it."
......
Lawsuits have ensued involving various racing interests in the state seeking relief from the Off Track Betting payments to Yonkers.

In response to critics like Mr. Sabini, Mr. Spano said he had no regrets about protecting the raceway, one of Yonkers's largest employers. "I will continue to work as hard as I can to make sure the track remains economically viable," he said. "I am proud of the fact that they think I am the protector of Yonkers Raceway, because in fact I am."

Sounds like that “I am God” speech from that Alec Baldwin movie some years ago. Jerry Bossert in the NY Daily News sums up with facts and figures just how the country’s only OTB that competes with the hand that feeds it has contributed to NYRA’s dire financial straits.

In 1994, the New York Racing Association handled $708 million in bets that were made at the track. Ten years later, only $460 million was bet on-track as more gamblers prefer to bet from home on the phone with OTB or on the Internet.

The difference is huge as NYRA gets 9.4% of a bet made at Aqueduct, Belmont or Saratoga and only 2.2% of a bet made off-track at an OTB or a simulcasting shop.
…..
The NYRA is going broke and NYCOTB is losing money. It's time now for the state to step in and either buy or pass legislation to take NYCOTB away from New York City, include it in the deal with the NYRA franchise and get a bigger price than it ever dreamed of.

- A lawyer for Wayne Gertmenian claims that the checks that he cashed on the day that he was removed from his position as head of the Jockeys Guild represent severance pay that was owed to him, according to Liz Mullen in SportsBusiness Journal (hat tip to Robert Colton).

“Dr. Gertmenian has never done anything wrong or illegal in connection with his work for the Guild,” said [attorney Mark] Werksman, who has been featured in Los Angeles magazine as one of the top white collar criminal defense attorneys in the city.

Also in the article, Guild attorney Barry Broad claims that Dr. G made off with some valuable memorabilia, including Bill Shoemaker’s boots and a bust of Eddie Arcaro. “We would like our money back…..We would also like Willie Shoemaker’s boots and Eddie Arcaro’s head back.”

It seems that Gertmenian is spending more of his disposable income on fancy legal help these days, after utilizing the hilarious Lloyd Ownbey during his stint at the Guild. And he hasn’t even been criminally indicted as of yet; are we feeling guilty, Dr. G? We previously mentioned attorney Mitchell Egers, who seems to have an affinity for defending accused sex perverts. Werksman is apparently drawn to representing accused terrorists. While we’re certainly not accusing Gertmenian of being either of the above, his actions as head of the Guild, if proven to be true, were a perversion of the trust placed in him to help safeguard the health and savings of its members, and would, again if proven, amount to nothing less than a financial terror attack on the group’s funds. So, for attorneys and client, the shoes certainly seems to fit (even the Shoe's boot).

Saturday Morning Notes - Dec 10

- NYRA staves off imminent doom, at least through early February. In what amounts to a state bailout, or a partial one anyway, a state authority agreed to pay $5 million for a parcel of land near Aqueduct. But according to the Albany Times-Union’s James Odato, who does an excellent job covering the NYRA situation in the state capital, the deal appears to be a case of a public authority purchasing land the state already owns -- a fiscal gimmick recalling a strategy used by the Cuomo administration.

It also continues to muddle the issue of who owns the racing sites NYRA runs under state franchise. Gov. George Pataki contends the state owns the Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga tracks. NYRA, which holds the deeds and pays taxes, says it owns the tracks.
.........
The Port Authority deal calls for NYRA to invest $5 million into track facilities once the VLT proceeds begin rolling in, to enhance the value of the franchise...

- Derby winner Giacomo is preparing for his comeback, working a half in a pokey :52.80. Keep an eye on the progression of his works as his return race approaches; you may recall that a couple of weeks before the Derby, he had a workout so slow that it wasn’t even recorded. He subsequently improved his work times, capped by a sparkling 7 furlongs in 1:23 and change, and then won the Derby. How impressive that win actually was is still a matter of dispute, as is the horse himself. He ran OK in the Preakness, but to me it didn't really affirm his Derby win or show that it was anything but a horse just picking up the pieces of a field that was devastated from an absurd pace. How he does upon his return should be one of the more interesting stories of early 2006, and here's hoping that he runs well, even if I don't bet on him. He's a Derby winner, and one that made a big splash because of the big exotics payoffs he sparked, so he's known to the general public much more than most. He could generate a lot of interest and publicity if he becomes a contender in the handicap division and in the picture for the Classic next fall.

Noble Causeway has also been working towards his return. Another interesting story given his mysterious summer at Saratoga, where he was scratched before one race and then pulled up in another. He worked a half in :49.60 at Palm Meadows.

- Florida legislators constructed the slots bill there in a manner that accommodates an expected move to place a referendum to repeal the law on the November 2006 ballot.

Rather than dedicating revenues from slot machines to a specific program, the bill requires the money to go into a general account that cannot be used for long-term projects -- which would have to be cut back if the repeal effort succeeds. [Miami Herald]

I can’t imagine how they could possibly repeal the law at that point. Indeed, a lobbyist for Hollywood Greyhound already declared, just minutes after the agreement was announced, that construction workers could begin work as soon as Monday to make room for the electronic games. Assuming that the racinos are all up and running by next November and major construction on casinos is either finished or well under way, it would really be something if voters approved pulling the plug on it all.

- One of the more controversial of many such casino-related issues in Pennsylvania is the intention of investor group Chance Enterpirses to build a casino near the site of the historic Gettysburg battlefield. Opponents feel that it’s inappropriate for a casino to be near such an important historical site and that it exploits the soldiers who died there (in addition to the usual ‘social ills’ complaints).

Chance announced on Friday that they have changed the casino’s name from Gettysburg Gaming Resort and Spas to Crossroads Gaming Resort and Spa. Nice try, but that’s not going to do much to satisfy the critics.

“That was one of three demands that our group had made,” said Susan Star Paddock, chairperson of No Casino Gettysburg. “that there be no casino in Gettysburg, that there would be no casino in Adams County, and that there would be no casino anywhere that exploited the name Gettysburg.

“So we’re happy that they’ve changed the name,” she said. “Now they just need to change the location.” [Gettysburg Times]

All About The Action!

This is my final picture of Afleet Alex, ain’t it a beaut? It was his last appearance before an audience on a racetrack in New York, if not anywhere, and while I missed his head, I got a decent portion of Angel Cordero’s. Still no announcement of a stud deal for him. The last I read of it was Chuck Zacney telling the Times "We pretty much turned everybody down because we planned to race him next year. Now we have to start from ground zero." I wonder if his not-that-fashionable pedigree is keeping the price down?

As much as I admired Afleet Alex, I never really grew that attached to him personally, despite the best efforts of my friend Jerry from Philly and the colt’s amazing efforts in the Preakness and Belmont. I was thinking about why not; after all, what was there not to love? He was fast and tough, and he was getting better and better. He was firing bullets in his morning workouts in the fall even with whatever it is that’s bothering him. But when I thought back to horses I’ve grown emotionally attached to in the past such as Temperance Hill, Alysheba, Cavaet, Genuine Risk, Dance Spell, Waya, Foolish Pleasure, Smarty Jones, and Saratoga Stan to name a few, I realized that I scored big bets on all of those, in most cases more than once! I never managed to cash on Alex. So there it is, despite all my lofty words, I’m just another degenerate gambler at heart.

So let’s gamble. The Queens County Handicap is the feature at the Big A today. I don’t like the morning line favorite Evening Attire. I know, he’s a sentimental favorite type, a tough old 7 year old gelding who will be making his 46th start, 12 of those wins. And despite the perfect trip he enjoyed in the Stuyvesant, one that I will hold against him here, you had to admire his game rally in that race to get up for his first win since August, 2004. But since, as I now realize, it’s all about the gambling, fuck that stuff. His figs have dropped off precipitously since the end of 2004, he’s unlikely to get such a dream trip from the five hole, and besides, Trapped Again seems to simply be faster than anyone in the field. In fact, I expect that he will be the favorite come post time. If you throw out his race at Keeneland, he shows two wins and a necked-out second, all in stakes, and all with triple digit figs (including a 109).

But I don’t think they’ll be much value there, so check out the feature at Hollywood, the Grade 3 Native Diver at a mile and a sixteenth. Bob Baffert, 9 for 30 at the meet, sends out the morning line favorite Preachinatthebar. He hasn’t won a stakes since he took the San Felipe in March, 2004, but he’s been getting closer and he always runs well. Trotamondo was a fast closing second to Preachinatthebar in his U.S. debut, and could improve here. The versatile McCann’s Mojave bounced back with a win in the Cal Cup, his second two turn win in two tries for his career. He’d been facing some tough company in sprints prior to his last, and perhaps he’s more suited for distance.

But let’s try a longshot, Courtly Jazz, 15-1 in the morning line. Four of his last five have been on the turf, including a tough 4th at a mile and a half in his last, the G3 CF Burke. Prior to that was a gritty win on the dirt at this distance at Fairplex, and he’s actually two for two at this nine furlong distance, and three for five lifetime on dirt. He’s shown slow but steady improvement throughout his career for trainer Gary Mandella, has worked steadily for this, and could be primed for an upset.

And take a look at the comments section here; our friend Walter discusses Disturbing, 12-1 in the first division of the My Charmer stakes at Turfway. I watched the replay of the race at Churchill he refers to, and it’s every bit as impressive as he says. Nice to see that Davidowitz is still picking horses and not just playing poker.

Guild Finances in Shambles

- The Jockeys Guild has released the results of its initial investigation into the finances of the organization, and as expected, it ain’t good. Among other things, it found that nearly $2.1 million was spent using funds that were earmarked for other purposes during former Guild president Dr. Wayne Gertmenian's tenure. Funds that were supposed to be held in savings accounts for riders are gone. A reserve account for anticipated health claims stands at $6,029, down from more than $860,000 in April 2004, and some jockeys were allowed to continue their coverage despite not paying their premiums.

Then there’s the outrageous matter of the $217,000 in checks made out to Gertmenian and Hiss on the day they were removed. I still can’t get over the fact that they had the balls and the sheer arrogance and stupidity to do such a thing!

The Guild's new leadership was able to obtain a temporary restraining order stopping payment on four checks totaling $104,000 made out to Gertmenian's management company, Matrix Capital Associates, said Haire. Two other checks totaling about $113,000 cleared the bank, and these checks were made out to Gertmenian for approximately $69,000 and to Albert Fiss for $44,000, he said. [Bloodhorse]

A police and FBI investigation into the checks continues. Mitchell Egers, an attorney for Dr. G, said that his client did nothing irresponsible. [LA Times]

What kind of attorney, you may ask, would agree to represent this guy, considering all the incriminating evidence, not to mention the outright admissions of sleaze that came out at the Congressional hearings? A Google search of "Mitchell Egers" reveals a sampling of some past clients:

Melvin Teitelbaum, an attorney who was accused of sexually assaulting a 13-year-old Iranian immigrant boy. (charges dismissed)

Rabbi Israel Grunwald, accused of fondling a 15-year-old on a 1995 plane flight from Australia….[he] had the charge against him dropped after agreeing to perform 500 hours of community service and to seek counseling.

And actor Scott Bairstow, who pleaded guilty to charges that he had sex with a 12-year-old girl and later asked her to keep quiet about it.

Yeah, that seems about right.

Slots Agreement Pleases No One

- The agreement in the Florida legislature on slots in Broward County features a flat 50% tax rate which is one of the highest in the country. The House and Senate split their difference on the number of machines per facility right down the middle, settling on 1500.

It is estimated the tax will raise at least $100 million for schools, which is far less than the $300 million to $500 million the pari-mutuels pledged to provide under an early plan that was based on a low rate and let each facility have at least 3,000 machines. [Sun-Sentinal]

The tax rate is far higher than the 35% advocated by the parimutuels, who claimed that a significantly higher rate would discourage them from building the extravagent gambling palaces that some had planned. Pompano Park harness was one of those with lofty aspirations, and the stock of their parent company reacted poorly in trading on the Nasdaq exchange on Thursday.

"Obviously, the four operators would have liked to have seen more, but the hope is that one day more machines will be allowed," said Brian McGill, an analyst at Susquehanna Financial Group.
........
"While we are encouraged that an agreement has been reached, the high tax rate (as expected) will likely limit investment dollars in the facilities," Deutsche Bank analyst Marc Falcone said in a report. [Reuters]

Nobody seemed particularly happy with the bill. Slots opponent Governot Bush said "I just don't think this is right for our state ... The fact that there's going to be a bunch of slot machines in Broward County doesn't warm my heart." [AP] Broward Senator Steve Geller, a key supporter of slots, complained "This is a terrible bill. I think it's setting them up for failure.....I believe they're doing this so the governor can lead the repeal (campaign) and say, 'See? Look what you have instead of those nice facilities you were promised.'" [Sun-Sentinal]

You can be sure that a repeal effort will soon be underway; gambling opponents are persistent if nothing else. Perhaps relentless is a more appropriate word. In Arkansas, opponents filed a lawsuit to block the installation of electronic “games of skill” at Oaklawn Park; and I previously mentioned the repeal effort soon to be underway in Pennsylvania.

- The U.S. House and Senate are working on tax relief bills for Gulf Coast businesses devastated by Hurricane Katrina. But inserted into the House version, at the behest of conservative Republican representatives, is a clause that would deny tax breaks to casinos and racetracks, as well as to massage parlors, liquor stores, country clubs, and tanning facilities.

Rep. Frank Wolf, R-Va., led the effort to carve those businesses out of the bill. He said Congress should not allow "our constituents' hard-earned tax dollars, in these kinds of record deficits, to subsidize the rebuilding of a massage parlor, a liquor store or a casino." [AP]

In deciding for the rest of us which businesses are too immoral to get help, the religious right has targeted a casino industry that employed about 50,000 people in Louisiana and Mississippi and generated more than $770 million a year in tax revenue. [LA Times]

Odds And Ends - Dec 8

- Wilko (Awesome Again), perhaps the most overhyped three-wins-in-16 starts horse in history, makes his comeback on Saturday when he faces six 3-year-old rivals in the $50,000 Larkspur Stakes at Golden Gate Fields.

"He had a bone chip removed from an ankle and we gave him plenty of time," said [trainer Criag Dollase]. "The quarter cracks that bothered him all year are healed up now and his feet have grown out. He's like a fresh, new, shiny penny. We're excited." [Bloodhorse]

He’s another three year-old that one could wonder whether he could have made an impact on the division in the fall if his connections didn’t persist in running him in the Derby despite the relentless foot problems that his trainer refers to. It will be his first start since being eased in the Preakness, beating only Galloping Grocer and Going Wild.

- Kiaran McLaughlin sent out two year old colt Jazil (Seeking the Gold) to win the 6th at Aqueduct on Wednesday at .55-to-1 with an exciting closing surge inside the 8th pole; the colt had closed strongly to just miss in his prior start and stretched out to a mile and a sixteenth here. This colt has an outstanding pedigree – he traces directly back to foundation mare Best In Show, his third dam. Broodmare of the Year in 1982, Best In Show won just five races and $53,000. But it’s staggering to see the names of all the stakes winners that have descended from her and her daughters. Actually, Best In show herself foaled just four of them (including Jazil’s second dam Blush With Pride), but according to this piece by noted pedigree expert Rommy Faversham written in September of 2003, her daughters and their descendants were, at that time, responsible for 53 stakes winners out of 494 foals, for a percentage of 11%. These include Aldeberan, Chimes of Freedom, Spinning World, Domedriver, Yagli, El Gran Senor, and Strong Hope, to name a few. Amazing to think that a single mare could be responsible for a virtual entire chapter of racing history.

Jazil’s sire, Seeking the Gold, is worth a mention too. Earlier in the year, I posted of his steadily declining stud fee, which had gone from $250,000 in 2001 to $125,000 this year; I also noted that he finished out of the top 100 on the general sires list for 2004. However, they’ll be no further reduction in his fee for 2006, as he’s enjoyed a resurgent year with 11 stakes winners, including Distaff winner Pleasant Home, and a spot in tenth place on the sires list thus far. He now has 71 stakes winners in his career out of 721 foals, and with a little rounding up, that’s good for the magic 10% that qualifies a sire as being amongst the very elite of his profession. Imagine, if you have a young horse by Seeking the Gold, you have a ten percent chance of having a stakes winner on your hands. That's much better odds than you get on a lot of things in this game. Of course, you'll have to pay for it - his yearlings had an average sale price of $273,000 this year.

- Hollywood Park raised their purses, but that didn’t avert a dismal card featuring seven claiming races drawn for Friday’s 8 race card.

Friday's program drew 55 entries, including one five-horse field and four races with six entrants. The largest field is the eighth race, a maiden claimer for 2-year-olds that drew 12 entrants. Half of the races are for maidens. [Daily Racing Form]

Studio Racing at Gulfstream?

- With the declining live crowds in many locales and the technology to make it possible, racing has long been headed towards the concept of it being strictly a “studio sport,” in which the races are conducted in an empty, silent plant, while fans bet and watch the races at simulcast centers, on TV, their computers, cellphones, and IPODs.

Now, it appears that that day may have actually arrived. With the construction at Gulfstream lagging behind schedule, and the meet slated to begin just four weeks from today, the Sun-Sentinal reports of a possible Plan B if the plant is not ready to host people.

One contingency plan for Gulfstream could come in the next few days when the track is expected to sign an agreement to simulcast its races to Calder for the first time in 35 years. If the two sides agree to a deal, Savin was asked if the races could be run at Gulfstream for a few weeks while all wagering takes place at Calder. This would allow Gulfstream time to prepare for its first big day of racing, the Jan. 28 Sunshine Millions that is televised nationally.

"We hope it doesn't get to that point," Savin said. "We hope it doesn't get to that level of contingency."

That does not sound like a man who is convinced that it will be anything but exactly that level of contingency. It would certainly be weird, though last year’s meet during which the horses and riders left the noise of the crowd at the top of the stretch and raced into silence at the finish line was bizarre enough. I’m just glad I’m not holding plane tickets to fly down for the historic opening day. Here's the latest photo from the Gulfstream website:



Doesn't look too promising; the Sentinal reports that the building is "empty." But I imagine it will be quite impressive upon completion.

This also raises the “tree falls in the forest” question of: Would Tom Durkin Vic Stauffer actually call the races over the P.A. at the track (if there is one), or just for the simulcast patrons? Aren’t you glad that I come up with incisive questions like that?

Meanwhile, little progress thus far in the Florida legislature’s efforts to agree on regulations for slots at Gulfstream and the other Broward County pari-mutuels. The Senate moved from a 45% tax rate to a sliding scale starting at a 35% rate which could encourage Hollywood Greyhound Pompano Park harness to proceed with their lavish construction plans, but would then move up to 55% as profits increase. This prompted Senate President Tom Lee to speculate that the committee's action moves the two chambers even farther apart [Sun-Sentinal], and to announce that he won’t support that bill because it "leaves tens of millions of dollars on the table." [Palm Beach Post]

- In Pennsylvania, Republican State Rep. Paul Clymer is leading a move to repeal the slots law there. Fat chance, say many. Indeed, the state is already addicted to the slot money months before they become a reality.

About two dozen bills are pending in the Legislature to reduce property taxes, and a lot of them count on using up to $1 billion in new revenue that [Governor] Rendell says will be generated by a 34 percent state tax on slots revenue. [Pittsburgh Post-Gazette]

Clymer is encouraged by the recent repeal of a legislative pay raise which was, like the slots bill, passed on a vote in the middle of the night. "My legislation would repeal this misguided slots law and restore the social values that have made Pennsylvania the state we love to call home." Lofty words indeed. But a gambling proponent, Sen. Robert Tomlinson, scoffs at the chances of repeal, and feels that Clymer has a dependency problem of his own. "You talk about a psychological addiction. The guy doesn't want to give up." [Bucks County Courier Times]

- NYRA hasn’t given up their quest to sell the land near Aqueduct that could net it $20 million and bridge the gap until their slots arrive, and in a bit of a surprise, CEO Charles Hayward's appeal to the state’s oversight board on Tuesday apparently didn't fall on deaf ears.

A spokesman for Gov. George Pataki did not rule out allowing NYRA to sell 80 parcels near Aqueduct or deferring $32 million in tax and fee payments for a year -- NYRA's preferred solution to its serious cash-flow problems.

But, according to Hayward, new and different options are being pursued. He declined to provide specifics.

"It was a productive meeting with no conclusions. We did reaffirm to them that time is short. We truly think we are going to run out of money by the end of the month," he said. "We need either the land sale or some sort of commensurate solution." [Albany Times-Union]

Not surprisingly, NYRA’s announcement of their 2006 stakes schedule included a $4 million cut in purses and nine eliminated races.

Among the cuts in grade I stakes, The Jockey Club Gold Cup purse was reduced from $1 million to $750,000, and the Beldame, Flower Bowl, Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, and Met Mile were all cut from $750,000 to $600,000. The Coaching Club American Oaks saw its purse reduced to $300,000 from $500,000.

The eliminated stakes are the Astarita, Valley Stream, Cowdin, Huntington, Lawrence Realization, Saratoga Breeders' Cup, Belmont Breeders' Cup, and Meadowbrook Steeplechase. [Bloodhorse]

They've also made some major changes to the stakes schedule, most notably moving the Woodward from its longtime home at Belmont to Saratoga, to be run on the final weekend. Labor Day weekend will feature three other Grade 1s in addition to the Woodward - the Hopeful, back to its traditional spot on closing day, the Forego, and the Spinaway. These moves should address the anti-climactic atmosphere there this past year on the final weekend. The entire 2006 Saratoga stakes schedule is listed here. Check it out and start making your plans, because the deadline for seat applications is December 23.

A Look Ahead

- Mike Watchmaker in the Form, in taking a look at the 2006 handicap division without Afleet Alex, brings up some names from the recent past that he considers to be possible dark horses. These are some names you may want to add to your watch lists to check on their progress. Or as in the case of Bandini, the lack of progress. What happened to this one? He was the third choice in the Kentucky Derby at 6.80 to 1; he had ankle surgery following his 19th place finish, and hasn’t had a recorded workout since then. With his breeding (Fusaichi Pegasus out of a half-sister to successful sire Stormy Atlantic) and a dominating win in a Grade 1 (Blue Grass), it wouldn’t be a surprise to see this one turn up in the breeding shed without running another race.

Greeley’s Galaxy had four published workouts in November. The Illinois Derby winner subsequently ran 11th in the Derby, and then 7th in the Preakness two weeks later in his last appearance to date. He was perhaps this year’s poster boy for young, lightly-raced horses being rushed unnecessarily into Triple Crown races. If you think that his Illinois Derby win was for real, then imagine what kind of factor he could have been in the depleted three-year old division later on in the year if handled with a little patience. Owner B. Wayne Hughes even spent $200,000 to supplement him for the Derby, what a waste.

I mentioned Rockport Harbor the other day; he’s working out at Oaklawn where the workouts are not yet being recorded. He breezed a half-mile in : 50 on Saturday morning, according to trainer John Servis. [Arkansas Democrat Gazette]

We’re still waiting for Wilko to replicate his Juvenile win; this horse was full of excuses during his three-year old season, and had an ankle chip removed. He is training very well now, though, and is scheduled to make his comeback in the Malibu on opening day at Santa Anita. Buzzards Bay is also expected to appear that day, though in the grassy Sir Beaufort, according to an interview with trainer Ron Ellis in the Form last month.

And then there’s the Kentucky Derby winner himself, Giacomo, not seen since the Belmont Stakes. He had his first recorded workout on November 24, and is being pointed by John Shirreffs to the San Fernando Breeders' Cup Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan. 14 with the hope of getting a two-turn prep race in advance. [DRF]

The Derby favorite, Bellamy Road, hasn’t been heard from since his second in the Travers. Sorry Afleet Alex fans, and no offense intended, but my own most scintillating racing moment of 2005 was standing in an empty Aqueduct grandstand watching his 17 1/2 length romp in the Wood Memorial in 1:47, with Javier Castellano blowing kisses to the crowd. For one brief moment, it appeared as if the game had found the superhorse that could vault the sport back into the national consciousness. For some reason, despite his acrobatics and human interest stories, I felt that Afleet Alex was a cut below that status.

- Then there are all the horses who will not compete in the 2006 handicap division and have instead been moved to the breeding shed. Many of those are already listed in the Stallion Register. Interestingly, Borrego is amongst those; I don’t recall reading about him being retired. Do you? But he already has his own stud page, saying that he’s standing at Wintergreen Stallion Station for a private fee. Other prominent names here include Saint Liam ($50,000 fee), Eddington ($20,000), Roses In May (TBA), Offlee Wild ($15,000), Roman Ruler ($30,000), Consolidator ($20,000), and of course, the reigning Horse of the Year Ghostzapper ($200,000), who, according to the Adena website, is The fastest horse since the advent of Speed Figures. And a Full brother to opening day Saratoga winner ARISTOCRAT. There’s a selling point for ya.

Slots in Sunshine State Special Session

- The Florida legislature meets in special session this week, and slots in Broward County is one of two major topics, along with the state’s Medicaid program, that will be discussed. However, according to the Miami Herald, the betting crowd is laying odds against Tallahassee coming through with a deal by the end of the session.

Parimutuel lobbyists and many legislators are speculating that election-year politics, anti-gambling idealists and the competing interests of the gaming industry will prompt legislative leaders to pack the bill with so many divisive elements they will adjourn again with the issue unresolved.

''Some people are gunning for stalemate,'' said Sen. Bill Posey, a Rockledge Republican and one of the Senate negotiators on the deal.

The motives of the competing groups are different, but the goal is to sabotage the bill and wait for more industry-friendly regulations at the local level, delay the arrival of slot machines or legislate the industry ''into bankruptcy,'' Posey said.

The pessimism regarding an agreement comes despite the fact that the House and Governor Bush have finally ceded to the Senate’s demand that the slots be the Class III “Las Vegas” type machines that the voters of Broward County thought they were voting on all along. According to insiders in Bush's office and the legislature, attorneys for Bush and House Speaker Allan Bense are convinced that the parimutuels will win a lawsuit challenging what they call "slots lite" — the video slots. [Palm Beach Post]

The remaining major issues to be resolved are those of the tax rate on the machines, as well as the number of machines to be permitted in each pari-mutuel facility. The House is sticking to a 55% rate and a limit of 1000 machines, while the Senate, whose proposal allows for 2000 machines, is at 45%, a rate that the pari-mutuels still think is too high.

The tax rate is crucial to how far and how fast slot machines move into Broward County, local parimutuel officials said. They are ready to move quickly if a deal is struck in Tallahassee but if the tax rate is much higher than 35 percent, it would jeopardize their plans to build new facilities, they said.

A tax rate that approaches or exceeds 50 percent would be ''a disaster,'' said Dan Adkins of the Hollywood Greyhound track. ``You end up with slot barns that generate no economic benefit.''

With a lower tax rate, Hollywood Greyhound could set up a temporary slots operation within three months and have enough money to invest in its 90,000-square-foot, Mardi-Gras-themed gaming center in a year to 18 months, he said.

The same scenario would let Pompano Park harness track build a $150 million, 157,000-square-foot building to house slots, poker tables, simulcasting and restaurants, said general manager Dick Feinberg. Work could be finished in eight or nine months. [Miami Herald]

The pari-mutuels also point to the fact that even the 45% rate in the Senate bill is high by industry standards.

Across seven states that allowed slot machines in 2004, the average tax rate was 35 percent, according to legislative staff analysis. Only Rhode Island, at 61 percent, is higher than those proposed in Florida, though legislative staff have said that Rhode Island isn't comparable because its parimutuels don't own their machines. [St Petersburg Times]

Another little twist, as reported in the Herald piece, is the Indian tribes, who by law will be entitled to install their own Las Vegas-style machines once the pari-mutuels have them.

The governor wants to tax the revenue from the tribes's slots and to regulate the games. To get there, the governor would have to give the tribes something in return. Industry experts said his options are to offer the tribes a lower tax rate than the parimutuels would pay, and a key concession: the exclusive privilege of operating slot machines outside of Broward and Miami-Dade counties.

You can just picture Churchill Downs executives sweating over that, as they hope to eventually win the right to put slots at Calder; but exclusivity for the tribes would kill that for them, as well as for tracks in Tampa and elsewhere. If gambling opponents attempt to insert that into a final bill, you can expect a tidal wave of opposition in an attempt to scuttle it.

Of course, the Broward County tracks won the right in court earlier this year to implement their own rules, a strong incentive for the state legislators to get something done. And Bush and gambling opponents now actually want an agreement -- so that, once they have fulfilled their constitutional obligation to implement the will of the voters, they can then initiate a referendum to repeal the whole thing altogether. Despite the special session this week, it seems we're still a long ways from the finish line.

Sunday Night Notes - Dec 4

- When we last left Harlington (Unbridled), the $2.8 million dollar son of Serena’s Song was the even money favorite for the G3 Risen Star, and a rising star on the Kentucky Derby scene. I thought it was astounding that he was 6-5 that day, considering that it was his first stakes try, his first race on a fast track as his two wins came on sloppy tracks, and he had the ten post. He ran an even and wide 6th, and was then taken off the Derby trail. The original plan was to bring him back for the Travers, but instead his next appearance was in the 9th race on the inner track at Aqueduct on Sunday. Also in the field was Golden Man, who in the space of five months, has placed twice in graded stakes on consecutive days, and, most recently, twice for a $40,000 tag; and the steady Crown Point, in-the-money in several stakes this year.

So, while Harlington was the post-time favorite, he was a timid one at 5-2. He was anything but timid on the track though. After being forced to go four wide throughout the second turn, he switched leads in the stretch and swept by the leader Golden Man, winning off by five in a six second final sixteenth. This was a far more professional colt than the one we saw last winter, and I’d expect to see him in some stakes down at Gulfstream.

As you may recall, Scipion took the Risen Star, and using my new found toy, the Cal Racing replay page, I finally watched his debut at Saratoga last summer, and it was every bit as amazing as billed. I particularly liked the part when Tom Durkin noted that “Shipion” couldn’t keep up with the field.

- Our friend Walter pointed out on Saturday that Alfonzo, a three year old half brother to Halfbridled, was making his debut in the 7th that day at Hollywood. Alfonzo was bet to 5-2, but broke slowly and finished 8th. On Sunday at Hollywood, A.P. Surprise (Pulpit), a two year old half-sister to the same Halfbridled, was one half of an entry that ran 2-3 (with A.P. Surprise third) at 1-10, wow! Entrymate Toppsisme (Saint Ballado), a grandly bred colt whose third dam is the great turf mare Glowing Tribute, the dam of Derby winner Sea Hero, seemed to have things under control around the turn (or at least Vic Stauffer thought so), but was no match for 9-2 Pure Incentive (Fusaichi Pegasus). 1-10!

- Back to Aqueduct, the featured East View Stakes was for two year old NY-bred fillies at a mile and a sixteenth. This was, to me, an unbettable race as all nine entrants were stretching out to a two-turn route for the first time. So despite her field high Beyer (earned in the slop), I found it pretty amazing that Zippy Missy, one of three daughters of City Zip in the field, was sent off the 4-5 favorite. This is the type of favorite I’ll wait all day for; but in this case, unfortunately it was just a guessing game, with each horse trying something she never had before. The winner, Home and Away (Skip Away) ($22.20), was one of several coming off good tries at shorter one-turn distances.

City Zip (Carson City) is a half-brother to Ghostzapper standing in Kentucky for $15,000. This year’s two year olds are his first crop, and while he ranks 4th on the first-crop sire list, which is based on earnings, he leads his class with 19 winners.

Big A Day

- Made it to Aqueduct on Saturday, and there are no outward signs of the financial perils ahead (other than the meet-long closure of the grandstand). I’ve been hearing that some people expect that the track will not reopen as scheduled on Dec 28 after the Xmas break due to lack of cash. This anticipates that the state will prevent NYRA from selling the land near Aqueduct and take over operations; and that the Big A will reopen after a few weeks. I’ve also been told that horse owners are taking their purse monies out of their accounts immediately.

But NYRA chief Charles Hayward told the Racing Form that racing can continue even if they end up filing for bankruptcy. Earlier, he conceded to the New York Times that bankruptcy is the likely outcome.

There's nothing that has happened to date to indicate that anyone has an interest in changing their positions. I don't want to be inflammatory, but one way to be successful in business is to read the past performances. The past performances so far seem to be dictating what the outcome is going to be here."

But with all of the turmoil, it seemed like just another day at the races. There were no additional cutbacks in services, and the employees seemed their usual cheerful selves. The track even seems lively now, with the entire crowd of 3,825 "crammed" into the clubhouse. I’m just nowhere these days as far as my handicapping and betting goes. I don’t even have any good close call stories because I didn’t have any close calls, and haven’t had any of late that I can recall.

I also got distracted from my handicapping in the morning by a website called Cal Racing (http://www.calracing.com) that a friend called to my attention. If you go to this page and do the free registration, you can access the race replays page (with Internet Explorer 5 or higher and Windows Media player). Then if you go to the ‘Horse’ tab, you can type in any horse, and instantly get a list of its races going all the way back to last year, all available for viewing in their entirety!

This seems too good to be true! Are they allowed to do this? I know of at least one site that you have to pay for this stuff; and I believe they have something like it on You Bet, but only if you have an account. I feel like I’ve entered a new era of my handicapping life! In doing Saturday's races, there wasn't one race on the pp’s that I couldn't watch if I wanted to. I was so excited that I couldn’t concentrate on handicapping and instead starting watching races like Saint Liam battling Ghostzapper in the 2004 Woodward, and Afleet Alex somehow losing to Proud Accolade in the Champagne. I needed to get out of the house for sure.

I was down in the paddock for the 5th and eavesdropped on trainer Leah Gymarti’s instructions to Pablo Fragoso before he rode Fighting Speedy for Castle Village. “She’s got speed, but she shouldn't get mixed up in the pace....but not last either.” In other words, "please give her a perfect trip." I imagine that these instructions or ones quite similar are repeated hundreds of times throughout the country on each racing day. Fighting Speedy was actually further back then the trainer probably had in mind, but railled for the place at 33-1, giving the partners (of which I am not one) a big thrill.

I didn’t start betting until after that, and I was all wrong. I bet some Pick 3s and 4s based on singling Bank Audit in the 8th, who ran third in the Garland of Roses Handicap. This filly has been baffling me ever since I picked her in a stakes at Aqueuct last March, but it didn’t matter anyway, because my bets were also based on beating favorite Genuine True in the 7th, and she won by almost five. Both races were won by Channing Hill, and in a statistical oddity, he was among four riders, along with Elbar Coa, Pablo Fragoso, and Kyle Kaenel, who had two winners on the day. I also managed to lose in the two juvenile stakes on the Calder program.

Well, a few observations anyway. In the second, a two year old maiden filly affair, Pletcher had the 7-2 morning line favorite Coach Kent. You may recall during the summer that the trainer had a slump with these, but that’s not the case at the Big A. Coming into this race, he’d hit with four of them out of seven starters (and five out of eight if you go back to Belmont). Coach Kent is a $450,000 yearling by Forestry out of Reach the Top, a stakes winning Cozzene mare who is also the dam of graded turf stakes winner Changing World. However, she went off second choice at 4-1, and the hot money came in on another first timer, Concert Conductor for Dale Romans – 6-1 morning line, but the 5-2 favorite.....and the winner. The winner is by Storm Cat son Bernstein, out of a Halo mare.

The sixth was another two year old race, this one for colts, and again, Pletcher had the morning line favorite with a first time starter. This one was Throng (Silver Deputy), a $160,000 yearling purchase who is out of an Easy Goer half sister to stakes winners Jenkins Ferry and Vanlandingham. He wasn’t the only expensive colt in the race; Darley had an entry of a Storm Cat and a $550,000 Old Trieste colt; Clement had Hither Lane, a Mr. Greeley half-brother to Day Trader. However, none of these horses really got bet – the Pletcher horse was 6-1, and the Darley entry was around 8-1 when half of it ran off and had to be scratched; Hither Lane was second choice at 5-1. All the money went to the eventual winner, Laptop Computer (Notebook), 4th in his debut at 10-1. It’s probably more accurate to say that nobody else got bet, so the logical form horse kind of defaulted into the 6-5 favorite.

And in the ninth, Richard Dutrow had the morning line favorite in Frank’s Fuse, who, in a familiar scenario, won by four in his first start for the trainer, exceeding his previous high Beyer by 19 points at even money. Though that fig made him more than competitive in his first try against winners, he lagged at 7-1 before a late flurry of money made him 5.90 to 1, and he ran 4th. Sometimes you need to look no further than the tote board. However in this case, nothing would have helped as hopeless-looking longshot Fast Iz A Turtle swept by them all at 45-1. The comical look of shock on peoples’ faces as I headed to the exit made up for my selection finishing sixth on another futile afternoon at the Big A.

D-Day for NYRA

- Here’s how desperate things are at NYRA, now that the “band-aid” of their art sale was nixed.

"We probably have a little over $1 million in the bank," said NYRA president and CEO Charles E. Hayward. "D-day is the end of the month." [NY Daily News]

D-day might actually be next Tuesday, when Hayward meets with Carole Stone, the head of the oversight committee from which NYRA must get approval for everything, even a company meal at McDonald’s. Hayward will discuss with Ms. Stone the sale of unused land near Aqueduct that would bring in $20 million, possibly enough to get them through to casino time next fall.

I don’t think there’s any way that the oversight board will give NYRA the go-ahead on the sale. They’ve thwarted the association at every turn, opposing the art sale and land sale, refusing to entertain the notion of a bailout, admonishing them for contacting a bankruptcy firm, and not even giving the go-ahead to start the casino construction. If they do bar the land sale, NYRA would be down to two options according to Hayward. "One is shutting down, and that would be catastrophic, or we can enter Chapter 11 so we can still make payroll and purses. Racing still will go on. Our last resort will be to shut down." Perhaps he’s being a bit dramatic here. They could, as suggested to NYRA by the state, indeed raise the takeout (though nobody other than the OTB's wants to see that happen); and the ideas of getting a loan from their casino partner, or securitizing their TV contract with ABC seem like viable ones.

Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno is not having a good week. He was rebuffed by Republican Senate candidate Jeanine Pirro after suggesting that she drop out of her already stumbling race against Sen. Clinton and run for attorney general instead. He was virtually laughed out of the room by Mayor Bloomberg after floating the idea that Mike run for governor, this after Gov Pataki refused to let him use a state helicopter to fly there. His choice to head the state Racing and Wagering board was rejected.

So, it was a very cranky-sounding Joe Bruno who today called for the NYRA franchise to be awarded in the next six months.

Bruno also issued a threat to NYRA not to put up any roadblocks to the request for proposals process that will choose a new franchise holder. "If they won't voluntarily understand that they need to go forward in a viable way to maintain the best racing in the country, if they don't willingly understand that we have to put an RFP together, then I think we have to try to pre-empt them,'' Bruno said.

But the legislature's top Republican lawmaker did not precisely spell out what he meant by "pre-empt'' NYRA. There has been growing speculation that, with NYRA's current financial crisis, the state might try to move in and take over the franchise through its state Racing and Wagering Board and a new oversight panel. [Bloodhorse]

Given the way that NYRA is being told ‘no’ to every cash-raising idea they’ve proposed, it seems to me that a state takeover could be exactly where we’re heading. Why they would possibly want to do so when they could easily either bail NYRA out or allow the land sale, one can only guess.

Afleet No More

- I can’t say I’m at all surprised at the news of the retirement of Afleet Alex, but that's not borne of the usual skepticism we all have about the motives of owners who will send their horses off to the riches of the breeding shed at the first sign of a hangnail or a hemorrhoid. These owners truly wanted to bring their horse back, and had already passed on plenty of multi-million dollar offers and shipped him to Gulfstream to prepare for a winter campaign. I have no reason to doubt head Cash is King partner Chuck Zacney when he said "We were really looking forward to racing Alex next year and to showing just how great a horse he was.” [Bloodhorse]

Speculation is that the condition that caused his retirement stems from the incident during the Preakness in which he stumbled and almost fell at the top of the stretch. But that’s just a guess, and the Philadelphia Daily News’ Dick Jerardi poses some questions to ponder.

Was it there all along and just not detected? Did the postoperative training cause it? Was it the jolt in the Preakness, as Ritchey thinks? Was it inevitable because of the stress of racing?

Jerardi does not here pose the question of whether Tim Ritchey’s unorthodox training methods throughout and following the triple crown campaign contributed to the problem. However, we’ll never know the precise answer. Instead, many will understandably point to the current fragility of the breed and the stress of the triple crown grind, and some, like the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Bob Ford, will call for a change.

The Triple Crown series is supposed to be hard. It is supposed to be the great test of a racing champion. Back when horses were bred for endurance and raced heavily, it was still hard. Now, however, when breeding is all about speed rather than durability, when trainers are more inclined to dull pain rather than wait it out, when the richest prizes are still clustered within a brutal five-week period, now the series is a crippler that has to be altered.
……
One suggestion for altering the series is simple but would gain little hold among traditionalists: Make it for 4-year-olds instead of 3-year-olds.

What makes more sense would be lengthening the time between the races. That would offend many as well, but it would be more humane for the horses and it would extend the excitement of the Triple Crown chase over a longer period.

While many are designating the stumbling incident in the Preakness as Afleet Alex’s defining moment, I would disagree. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not minimizing what he did, but I’ve seen that before, in 1987, when Alysheba clipped the heels of Bet Twice at a similar point in the race and also stumbled before recovering to win the Derby. But I had never seen any horse not named Secretariat handle the mile and a half of the Belmont with such ease and aplomb. The way he took off and literally sprinted away from the field after Jeremy Rose seemingly simply pushed the Go button, making the “test of champions” seem like a morning breeze, is the image of Afleet Alex that will remain etched in my mind. Even Secretariat didn’t get that last quarter in :24 2/5 (the fact that he went the first six furlongs in 1:09 4/5 may have had something to do with that), the fastest since Arts and Letters in 1969. It was a truly remarkable effort, especially since it was his 3rd race in five weeks.

Unfortunately, it was also his last. It would have been something special to see if he could have topped that.

Highland Cat Goes Fourth

- 4th place finish for Highland Cat, and the best I have to say is that he lost by single digits and earned us $1450. I’m at work and wasn’t able to go due to no more paid time off left this year, the result of all the time spent at Saratoga. In fact, I haven’t yet seen the race, but Tom Durkin noted that he was running awkwardly, and Matt Carrothers on TVG, who picked HC as a single starting off his Pick Four’s (sorry Matt), said that he never seemed comfortable. The Head Chef held the phone up to the TV and provided commentary such as "Ugh," "Oh no," "Sorry, honey," all sandwiched around a brief and screechy "CMON BABY" when he tried to rally. Another observer said that he didn’t seem to like the dirt kicked up in his face. Run him on the turf, I say. I’m kinda surprised that they let the winner go off at 7-2, given how unconscious Contessa has been lately; the horse was claimed again, this time by Frank LaBocetta. Thanks to all the well-wishers, and sorry if any of you lost...

Notes - Dec 1 (brief pre-Rangers game edition)

- Highland Cat is in tomorrow, but The Flying Dutchman is out. Sotheby’s has withdrawn NYRA’s paintings from their sale, and VP Bill Nader said that they will forge on to bigger game. "This was a Band-Aid, a small infusion of cash, relative to the big picture. What we really need is to try to get approval on the land sale.” [Albany Times-Union]

- Florida’s legislature meets next week in special session, and slots will be high on the agenda. At the behest of Governor Bush and other Republican leaders, a move to introduce legislation to enable a referendum to repeal slots in Broward County that they previously favored has been abandoned, for now anyway. [Governor] Bush "feels it's absolutely necessary that legislators implement the will of the voters before we go back and revisit the entire issue," according to Russell Schweiss, Bush's deputy press secretary. [Sun-Sentinal] What’s this? Someone named Bush changing course and admitting to be wrong?

- "I would characterize these allegations as chicken crap," said Thomas A. "Tad" Decker, chairman of the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board, regarding the charges leveled against the head of Pennsylvania’s gambling board, Anne L. Neeb.

Neeb said yesterday that the report was an effort by some Louisiana officials to impugn her reputation because she alerted the FBI about her concerns over the awarding of three gambling licences while she was executive director of the board. [Philly Inquirer]

Highland Cat Field Analysis

- Highland Cat faces six in the second at the Big A on Friday in a 60K maiden claiming race at a mile and 70 yards. Norberto Arroyo, Jr rides, and he’s ridden 6 winners out of his last 28 starters for our trainer Bill Turner (21%). Here’s a rundown of the field:

1 – Market Turbulence (Richard Violette) – This horse was a 3-1 favorite in his first start, on the turf, at Saratoga, but ran 5th. After another futile (and well-bet) turf try, he moved to the dirt, dropped into a 50K affair at 6 furlongs, and ran a close second with a 60 Beyer. He moves up in class, and stretches out. His dam is a half to routing stakes winners Larida and millionaire Miss Oceana. Looks like the one to beat.

2 – Highland Cat – After his promising third in his debut, in which he threw a shoe prior to the start, he was a nowhere 7th against a tough field that included Remsen runner-up Flashy Bull. He’s worked very well for this, and Turner feels that he will run well. Hoping that the class drop and two turns will help. He’s the only one in the field dropping from maiden specials on the dirt.

3 – Arborist (George Weaver) – Up the track at 30-1 in his debut.

4 – On the Attack (Tom Albertrani) – Generally, I don’t bet first-timers in maiden claiming races. Actually, I generally don’t bet maiden claiming races. Albertrani is 15% with firsters, but doesn't have much of a record starting them in claiming races. Coa is 4 for 10 riding for him, watch the board.

5 – Don’s Topdog (Dominick Schettino) – Another first timer. Like On the Attack, he’s been working steadily since at least August, yet his connections waited for a claiming race on the inner track, so they can’t be that confident with him.

6 – Victorious Cat (Leah Gyarmati) – Dead on the board and track in two starts.

7 – Bandito Rojo (Gary Contessa) – Third start, and up the claiming ladder for the second time after very decent and wide runs at Keeneland and the Meadowlands; he earned a field high Beyer of 65 in the latter. More worrisome is the fact that he’s first off the claim for the red-hot Gary Contessa.

Honestly, if I was looking at this race from a neutral standpoint, I’d very likely be turning to the second at Calder; if I was forced to pick a winner, I'd have to lean towards the 1 horse. I rarely bet maiden claiming races unless I see a betting move or an obvious overlay. It looks like the top and bottom horses will vie for favoritism, and, unless one of the first-timers gets bet, I imagine Highland Cat could be third choice based on the drop in class, and the highly-regarded horses in his running lines (Great Point, the winner of his debut, was 7-1 against Private Vow at Churchill on Saturday). Again, the trainer, who wouldn’t say it if he didn’t believe it, feels that he’ll run well. Don’t know that his 5-1 morning line presents enough value though, so I’ll leave it up to you.

- Our Vicar filly, the only other remaining horse from the four we originally bought, is due at Turner's barn in the middle of the month. More on this one to come, I'm quite excited about her.