Friday Morning Notes - January 18

- The two Pletcher first-timers in Thursday's 7th at Gulfstream were both 6-1 in the morning line. Magnificent Melody went off at 11-1, while Back for More was the second choice at 3-1. And the board was right on as Back for More became the Toddster's eighth winner from 16 starters at the meet. I find it reassuring when things go according to plan like that; however there was no planning for 45-1 Quiet Meadow finishing second, and blowing out many exotics players. Quiet Meadow was only 8-1 morning line and, trained by Zito, and with fairly solid works, she's the kind of horse I might have thrown into the exotics if I was betting the race in advance, but never would have had if I was at the track and saw her at 45-1.

Zito got Commentator to the winner's circle in the 8th, and by 14 lengths under his own courage while well in hand. It was his first win against open company since the Whitney in 2005; he'd won two facile NY-bred stakes races in the interim. The now seven-year old gelded son of Distorted Humor had last been seen fading to a distant 7th in the BC Sprint, and he's the second horse to come out of that race and win its next race; Benny the Bull was the other. But every Sprint runner who has run back has done pretty well. Midnight Lute ran second to Dahaar in the Cigar Mile, and his 109 Beyer was actually a point higher than he earned in his electrifying Sprint win. Talent Search was second to Benny the Bull; and Greg's Gold and Idiot Proof both ran third. Bordonaro, Kelly's Landing, and Smokey Stover have yet to run back.

- A couple of commenters and emailers seemed to take offense to my comment about people in the backyard at Saratoga not paying attention to the races. So I just wanted to clarify that I too, like Teresa, am a denizen of the backyard. In fact, I'd consider myself one of the Deans of the Denziens of the backyard; or at least a co-Dean. You'll find me in the area just behind the Carousel restaurant, and I spend most of my time right there. So I don't mean to denigrate the backyard crowd, and I'm certainly not drawing battle lines between the people in the back and those in the clubhouse and grandstand. I've written about this before, and it's not a big deal, just an observation. I'm glad people come and have a good time no matter how they choose to spend the day. As Green Mtn Punter said, many are merely reveling in the rich, historic ambiance of America's most beautiful and historic racetrack. And that's great.

But facts are facts, and the fact is that a lot of people back there don't pay attention to the races! I guess it's time for me to reprise this video that I shot during the running of a race there a couple of years ago.

Slots Arguments Getting Very Old

- Many experts are not buying NYC OTB's threat to shut down in June, an action which would cause the elimination of some 1500 jobs, including, as noted by commenter (and blogger) Power Cap, hundreds of political patronage jobs. Steve Crist told the NY Times:

“It’s 100 percent posturing,” said Steven Crist, publisher and a columnist for The Daily Racing Form, the industry newspaper for thoroughbred racing. “A lot of racing legislation is going to be written in the next two weeks as the N.Y.R.A. franchise situation is resolved, and as part of whatever changes are made, OTB is looking for a larger slice of the betting handle.”

Bennett Liebman told Bloodhorse.com that “The most likely scenario is they are trying to put significant pressure on state government, both the administration and legislature, to provide some relief to NYCOTB.” It certainly figures that a threat of this sort would be the thing to finally spur the reorganization of the OTB structure that should have been a part of the franchise process all along.

- As Santa Anita gets set to do a reorganization of its Cushion Track, Cliff Goodrich, a former president of the track, is taking some critics of the state's synthetic track mandate to task:

“To my knowledge there were six open committee hearings” leading up to the board’s action," he said. “I didn’t see one person during any of those meetings accuse the board of ‘a rush to judgment’ as has been written about and spoken of on the radio. Any new technology is going to have some growing pains. We at Fairplex fully support the board’s decision."

Ed Halpern, executive director of the California Thoroughbred Trainers, said his board continues to support synthetic tracks, as do most of the trainers his organization has polled. “Trainers, with only rare exceptions, feel they like these new tracks and they do not want to go back to dirt tracks,” Halpern said. [Bloodhorse.com]

It has to say something that, even with all the recent problems, as well as the griping over Del Mar, trainers remain supportive; at least according to Halpern.

Dirt tracks have problems too of course, and Oaklawn has a reconditioned surface for this year. You may recall the glacial times recorded there last year (though I don't recall the kind of outcry about them that we heard at Del Mar); and there were complaints that horses were coming back body sore — or worse — because the surface had become too hard.

What maintenance officials found after the 2007 season ended in April, Jackson said, was the three elements of the track — sand, silt and clay — had essentially separated and became disproportionate. [Arkansas Democrat Gazette]

- If you thought we were done with Jeb Bush, think again. No, thankfully, he's not running for president, though it's possible that even a Bush could make some headway in the unsettled (and, in some cases, frightening) GOP field. (Could you imagine Bush vs. Clinton? Oh man....) But the former Florida governor is back in the news, lending his support to opponents of Miami-Dade's slots referendum on January 29.

''As I did two years ago when I was governor, I am urging all of my fellow Miami-Dade residents to join me in voting no on Jan. 29 so that we may continue to protect our community and our families....Expanded gambling will only serve to erode our traditional industries, the industries we aspire to have and our very social fabric.'' [Miami Herald]

I guess that doesn't include the lotteries which flourished under his administration. If you're sick and tired of hearing these arguments, so is columnist Dan Rodricks of the Baltimore Sun.

So, slots.

Sure.

Why not? If it means an end to the debate, we're fine with it.

Look, I gave up the fight a couple of years ago, out of boredom more than anything else. You get sick of hearing the same old arguments all the time, and I heard them in three media - print, radio and television.

Plus, there's a certain inevitability about slots - you know it when you see it, and I've seen it coming for several years.
....
I mean, really. Why should Maryland be some prissy oasis from this sleazy form of recreation?

You've heard the arguments: Delaware does it. West Virginia does it, and hot-damn, ma'am, we can't let ourselves fall behind those fine, progressive states. (Last week, Education Week ranked each state for K-12 achievement in public education. Maryland got a B and ranked third nationally. West Virginia got an F; its eighth-graders are 47th in math and 43rd in reading. Delaware got a C-minus. )

While I'm not surprised that a majority of Maryland voters now approve of slots, I'm a little surprised that only 32 percent of us think some of the revenue derived from gambling should prop up the state's racing industry.

I'm not at all surprised about that. To be honest, though you and I have the Maryland racing industry in mind, why should the average citizen there care? They've read plenty about the incompetence of Magna, and besides, Baltimore, where one of the proposed slots parlors would be located, has been particularly hard hit by the subprime mortgage crisis. The city is suing Wells Fargo, accusing it of predatory lending practices towards minorities there, thus, the suit claims, causing a wave of foreclosures. So voters there have more important things on their minds than the size of purses at Laurel, I'm sorry to say, and these familiar arguments may ring particularly true when the matter comes up for a vote. When Marylanders finally, after all these years, get to express their opinion on the matter, the timing may not be at all fortuitous for the racing industry.

Thursday Morning Notes - Jan 17

- Oaklawn's purses will average $300,000 a day throughout the meet which opens on Friday. And guess why?

There are 480 electronic gaming terminals and 29 electronic table games on the first floor, and they are projected to contribute $74,000 to $92,000 a day to purses this meet, said Jackson. Of the machines, 350 are terminals for Instant Racing, a parimutuel game that plays like a slot machine. It was introduced in 2000.

"We expect Instant Racing and electronic games of skill in 2008 to generate between $4 and $5 million for purses," said Jackson. "We're awfully close to the point that the limited gaming that we have now is close to generating a third of our purse distribution." [Daily Racing Form]

And they're planning to double the number of machines for next year. Oaklawn is the only track I can think of that was actually really thriving before they added gaming. In the case of many, if not most (all?) other tracks with slots (or, ahem, electronic games of skill as required by law at Oaklawn), it was out of need, if not survival. The gaming at Oaklawn certainly seems to be a good fit; they're not mindless slot machines, and the benefits have been tangible and significant.

It makes me think about what it might be like if there were..........

slots at Saratoga!

Egads! Did I just write that? I, of course, would never suggest such a blasphemy. I'm just talkin'. I mean, one might as well propose to burn the American flag, or that I root for the Giants (because they're a New York team blah blah blah).

But I'm thinking about Oaklawn, an already vibrant racetrack before gaming was added to the mix, and what would happen if you put, not slots, but, say, some Instant Racing machines in a tent in the back of Saratoga. They'd probably do quite well, and maybe attract some of the thousands who sit in the back and don't pay attention to the races anyway! The money would help swell the already generous purses to astronomical levels which could attract even more stables and horses from around the country. Hell, since I'm talking (and I'm just talkin') about desecrating the place with gaming, I might as well propose to extend the meeting to two months to accommodate them all - no three, or how about until further notice?

But, y'know, I'm just talkin', that's all.

- Pletcher for seven for 14 at Gulfstream ths far. He has an entry of first-timers, both with a long series of steady works in the 7th, a race in which the horses who have raced look beatable; and they're both 6-1 in the morning line. Magnificent Melody (Unbridled's Song) may eventually be meant for the grass; she's a half sister to Navesink River and the European stakes winner Astronomer Royal. Her first dam, by Easy Goer, is a half sister to Vicar. With Eibar Coa aboard, she qualifies as the "other Pletcher" and thus may be worth a look off some solid A.M. drills. Johnny V will ride Back For More (More Than Ready); she's a half to no less than eight winners, including stakes winner and $300,000 earner Delray Dew.

Also keep an eye on the scratches, because lurking on the AE list is Seventh Street, a $1 million purchase for Darley last February. When one spends that much on a two-year old in training, it's obviously not for the purpose of waiting nearly a year to race, so we can assume all has not gone according to plan; and there's a workout gap as recently as Nov-Dec. Seventh Street is by Street Cry, out of a Meadowlake mare, and though she has some interesting inbreeding (4x4 to Raise A Native, and to Northern Dancer and his half-sister Raise the Standard), there ain't much on the catalog page. I'd wonder why someone would spend a fortune on a filly without much in the way of genealogy such as this one; but's it's Darley after all, and what's a million bucks to them?

News and Notes - January 16

- Thanks a million to Steve in NC, and this Mr. Anon for some excellent insight into the trends at the current Big A meeting. Great stuff, and good for me since I admit that I tend to tune out from the local details this time of the year and turn my attention elsewhere. Just maybe, the non-compelling product up here is one of the reasons I don't sense much angst at all over the upcoming January 23 franchise deadline; certainly not as compared to the run-up to December 31. Again, I understand how important it is to the local horsemen who stick around that racing continues, and I certainly don't mean to disrespect them. But I don't think that too many racing fans (except I guess for the likes of Steve in NC) would be too upset if the place went dark for awhile.

One of the real conundrums of the simulcasting era is that tracks, such as Aqueduct in January and February, offer product that is far more compelling than its own. I'd still make my way to Aqueduct just for Gulfstream, Santa Anita, Fair Grounds, and Oaklawn even if there was no live racing. No TVG/HRTV exclusivity problems there. This is one of my favorite times on the racing calendar. I will often arrive after 3 PM, just to catch the live late double and, especially, the simulcasts that follow. The atmosphere can't be beat - it's hardcore, and with an edge of sleaze, just the way we like it. With the few hundred bettors in relatively cramped quarters, you can feel that the sport really does have a pulse, as opposed to those dreary October days at Belmont, when the few thousand fans barely make a dent in the massive plant.

The seeming lack of deadline urgency may also simply be because we're all really sick of this whole ordeal. The real drama is gone, and the remaining issues - the NYRA board and slots at Belmont - are not at all compelling to you and me, at least in the short term with respect to the latter. Whether or not the percentage of slot money devoted to purses is really an issue that's being discussed is not at all clear. Matters that really could have made a difference have been ignored. Enough already.

According to this report in the Saratogian, there's little concern about a long-term stoppage, at least as reflected in the summer rental market. Charles Hayward told reporter Paul Post that another temporary extension is possible, as long as negotiations are moving forward. Yippee.

- Turning to Gulfstream, you can't get much more detailed analyzes of the day-to-day racing than in Steve Zacks' weekly reviews at Brisnet. Maybe too much, at least in the case of his daily track bias commentary; over-analysis of supposed biases is one of my real pet peeves. At one point, Zacks writes: "I would suggest that if it is possible to figure out whether or not the pace will be contested is a big help in assessing where the winner will come from." Well, yeah!! My view is that such pace analysis almost always trumps what many perceive as a track bias. Regardless, these columns are an excellent tool for those who can't be there everyday.

- Rags to Riches is in "light training," having just arrived in Florida, and the Toddster is in no rush.

"We will gradually increase her training; the most logical scenario is running her sometime during the Belmont spring meet. Our obvious focus is for races in the summer and the fall of the year with the Breeders' Cup (in October at Santa Anita) being the main goal." [Albany Times Union]

Pletcher told Brad Free that Ravel does not like the Cushion Track at Santa Anita, at least in its current composition.

"Garrett [Gomez] said when he tried to quicken, the ground was slipping away from him."
.....
Pletcher said Ravel would be nominated to the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap on March 1, and the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap on March 8 at Fair Grounds. [Daily Racing Form]

Santa Anita officially announced that they will go on with a reconstituted Cushion Track surface. The LA Times reports that, should rain arrive before the Sunshine Millions on January 28 (which is before the resurfacing will be completed), those races may be moved to Golden Gate, which is also owned by Magna.

Hunch Bets for January 16

Key Victory 6th at Aqueduct (waiting for him to say he's like Seabiscuit!)
Girl Show 7th at Aqueduct
Plunge Away 2nd at Charles Town
Fiesty Exchange 3rd at Turfway
Givtheballtoleroy 3rd at Delta Downs (ugh, gross, sorry...)
World Emissary - 6th at Turfway

- Speaking of our president, thanks to reader Case for sending along this link from CBS News regarding his visit with Saudi King Abdullah. The King declined to commit to increasing oil production, but he did show off some of his thoroughbreds to the president, including Alysheba. The 24 year-old animal is living in quiet retirement. There was some confusion when Bush, informed that he was about to meet Alysheba, confused the horse with Iranian President Ahmadinejad, and reached for the cellphone to ask Condi what to do. When told not to worry, and that Alysheba was a Derby winner, he asked "Oh, in New Hampshire or Iowa?"

Don't worry, just 369 days to go....and counting!

Frankmania

- A commenter over at Not to the Swift asked John: Why are you obsessed with Frank Stronach? Well, Frank's a fascinating guy, whatever you think of him, so I could think of worse topics to consume oneself with. John responded by taking Stronach to task for the Gulfstream disaster, and deservingly so. Of course, I always prefer to look at the positive side of people. I'm even happy for Mitt Romney.

In case you missed it, there was a feature story on Frank in Sunday's Baltimore Sun. It's largely a rehash of familiar Frank Follies, but with some interesting detail and quotes. It's a long piece, so I'll leave it for you to read if interested; but a couple of points to mention.

Gulfstream is, of course, one of the main topics, and reporter Hanah Cho notes that the win per machine numbers there have gone up from $74 from July - September, to $183 in December. However, a closer look at the figures [pdf document] shows that Magna has executed its strategy to reduce the number of VLT's, replacing some with video poker. The number of machines has gone down from over 1,200 to 516 in December; so the net revenue has remained virtually flat, with just a slight increase at the end of the year.

The Broward County figures show that the racinos are not doing the kind of business as those in Pennsylvania. Pompano Park is doing the best at a steady $220 or so per each of the 1,500 machines.

I'm looking at these numbers, and it's really staggering if you think about it. In total at the four racinos in Broward - and if I'm reading this thing right - over $243 million was wagered in December alone. $222 million, over 90% was returned to bettors, leaving a net profit of over $20 million. The state gets half; not a bad deal, eh? Easy to see how states get hooked on this. More gambling is coming to the state....perhaps. Governor Crist's Indian tribe casino deal, which would net the state some $100 million a year, is being challenged in the courts, and Miami-Dade voters get another shot at approving slots on January 29. Hopefully, the damn NY franchise will be settled soon so we have time to enjoy that battle. It's already heating up.

Back to Frank, the Sun article also discusses the Horse Wizard machines.

It was Frank Stronach's pet project. To the founder of Magna Entertainment Corp., the Horse Wizard took the thinking out of betting, while offering the excitement and instant gratification of casino gambling to a new generation of patrons.

But if Stronach expected others around him to embrace his enthusiasm, he didn't hear it. "I remember sitting there, and he had some test ones, and I tried them and said, 'This is really bad, Frank,'" recalled Gino Roncelli, a former Magna director.

"'Oh no, they're going to get used to this. This is going to be great,'" Roncelli remembered Stronach saying. "I said, 'Frank, this is a terrible loser.'"

This makes me feel silly, because I think they were a good idea too. Just not at racetracks I guess. Anyone who's going to Laurel in December is certainly not there to have the thinking taken out of the process. But the Horse Wizard machine is, after all, the same concept as the successful Instant Racing machines, with live races instead of old ones. Perhaps they would do better in bars or casinos.

And there's trouble for Frank at his Canadaville project in Louisiana. Magna is being sued by the local mayor, who claims that Magna has not fulfilled its contractual obligations. He claims that crime is up since the "strange people" came to town. [National Post] Presumably, he's not talking about Frank.

Aussies (Pro)-Ride In

- The Aussies may not have saved the day in New York, but it appears that they might have done just that at Santa Anita. Track officials are now leaning towards keeping the Cushion Track after an Australian synthetic track manufacturer (and a competitor to the surfaces currently in use here) demonstrated that their polymers, which they use instead of wax, can solve the drainage problem that shut the track down. Ian Pearse, the president of Pro-ride, apparently wowed horsemen with a demonstration over the weekend. "The way he (Pearse) showed us, it's going to drain," [Bobby] Frankel said. "Hopefully, it works."

"The testing on improving the existing racetrack right now, let's just say I think it's fair to say it couldn't be any more encouraging," [Ron] Charles said. [Daily Bulletin.com]

In addition, track workers are digging through the track in order to unearth some of the rocks that are contributing to the kickback problem. Veteran rider Alex Solis said the kickback is the worst he's ever experienced.

Also reported in the Daily Bulletin piece is the fact that Frankel's filly Turn Away, who was vanned off the track on Sunday, is OK. The trainer expressed reservations about running Country Star over the track until it's proven to be safe. But we saw a whole bunch of expensive horseflesh - Indian Blessing and Tiago to name a couple - race over the track over the weekend, so safety doesn't seem to be too much of a concern to many. And Tiago's trainer John Sherriffs is not a synthetic fan at all.

- The Philadelphia Inquirer followed up on yesterday's story regarding the big business going on at Pennsylvania's VLT parlors.

"Pennsylvania is still a very new market, so there's still a lot of interest by adults who want to try something new," said Michael Pollock, managing director of Spectrum Gaming Group. "You've got some very sharp operators there. They know how to reach players and give them what they want." [Philly Inquirer]

Operators in New York must either lack that expertise or the money with which to carry it out. There are over 12,500 machines currently in operation in Pennsylvania, with another 2,000 coming next month when Penn National opens its new facility. All four of the parlors mentioned yesterday are undergoing expansion. "When your numbers get over $300 a day per machine, that is a warning sign that you need more machines." Nice problem to have.

- Less than two years after he was arrested for possession of blood doping agents and accused of using them to fix races, harness driver Eric Ledford will resume driving at the Meadowlands on Thursday night. Ledford pleaded guilty to third degree possession, and the more serious charges were dropped.

"It was determined there was good cause to release him from the terms because he was a model participant," [Ledford's attorney Timothy] Donohue told the newspaper. "He paid all his fines and was fully compliant, and it was creating a financial hardship because he wasn't racing." [Associated Press]

It was creating a financial hardship because he wasn't racing because he was caught cheating! Oh, poor thing! The Meadowlands is not quite as sympathetic to the "model participant," but they have no choice but to grant him access to the grounds.

"As a state-owned facility, the Meadowlands cannot simply ban Eric Ledford from driving if he is licensed by the New Jersey Racing Commission," said Senior Vice President of Racing Dennis Dowd. "However, we will be vigilant in monitoring Mr. Ledford's conduct. Currently, he is licensed by the commission only to drive and we have informed his attorney that if he intends to participate as a trainer or owner, our position will be reevaluated." [Standardbred Canada]

Final Four

- Pletcher had four winners over the weekend; two at Gulfstream on Saturday, and two at Santa Anita on Sunday. That gave him 2,000 winners in his career. I was thinking that, just as a goof, I would go on Illman's blog and ask if he could provide a complete list of all of the winners complete with their past performances. But I'm afraid he might actually do it!

Well, here's the last four anyway:

1) Ruff and Ready (8th at GP, 1/12). Great ride here by Johnny V., who managed to find the wood and save ground turning for home. He had to wait a bit to get inside of Drilling For Oil, but the horse got through, and somehow managed to hang on by a nose, strictly on the head bob. Count your blessings if you cashed on this one. Ruff and Ready is a six-year old who has only raced nine times; but finds himself undefeated in three grass tries while climbing through the allowance ranks. He's by More Than Ready, out of a Notebook mare, and he's a half-brother to the Super Derby winner Outofthebox.

2) Game Face (9th, the G3 Old Hat, at GP, 1/12). Velazqueuz got a nice pace setup here, with favored Lovely Isle setting quick fractions up front. That should not, however, at all detract from this impressive effort. Johnny V. had the three-year old daughter of Menifee (out of an unraced Gone West mare) firmly in hand as he glided around the field while four wide on the turn; and I always like when the rider is peeking back as he's about to tackle the leader. At least when I have that horse, anyway.

3) Loh Collado (2nd, Santa Anita, 1/13) - This James Scatuorchio (who also owns Ruff and Ready) homebred ran 4th in her debut when the race was washed onto the Cushion Track, so this was her turf debut. Garrett Gomez sat chilly while wide on the turn behind two leaders, and Loh Collado responded well when set down for the drive home. She's a four-year old daughter of More Than Ready, and she's a half-sister to Irene's Talking, the dam of Adieu, a Grade 1 two-year old stakes winner for the Toddster.

4) On the Virg (8th, Santa Anita, 1/13) - On the Virg was a wide 6th at even money in his debut, at six furlongs last month. Here, he stretched out to two turns and scored at 5-1, nice! This is a three-year colt by Pulpit, out of a stakes-placed Housebuster mare; and he descends from the distaff family of the Grade 1 winner Virginia Rapids.

Pletcher did not Wait a While to get number 2001 (eek, sorry!). The 2006 three-year old filly champ made a successful five-year old debut with an emphatic win in the San Gorgonio at Santa Anita on Monday. All she needed was a little room inside of Sohgol turning for home, and the daughter of the late Marias Mon was gone. Physically, she just towered over her four hapless rivals. Wait a While had what has to be considered a disappointing season last year, with just two wins in six tries, and she was scratched from the Breeders' Cup due to the weather. The Toddster has 2008 all figured out:

Pletcher said Wait a While would remain in California and run March 23 in the Grade 2 Santa Ana Handicap, then return to the East for a summer campaign aimed toward the Grade 1 Diana Handicap at Saratoga. Pletcher said Wait a While would return to California in fall, presumably to prep in the Grade 1 Yellow Ribbon before her career finale in the BC Filly and Mare Turf. [Daily Racing Form]

- Bob Baffert said that Indian Blessing was tired after she just held off Golden Doc A to win the Santa Ynez Stakes on Saturday; he declined to say what her next objective is. "She ran pretty hard today, so I’ll let her dictate where she wants to run next, but we’re not in a hurry with her.” [Bloodhorse] The presumptive 2007 juvie filly champ once again proved that she's a one-dimensional filly, and looked as if she was beaten had the race gone another jump or two. Of course, that one dimension carried her to the lead in fractions of 43.76 and 1:07.14, and she hasn't been caught. Yet.

Business Booms in PA

- Which casino on the East Coast generates the highest daily win per machine? It's Mohegan Sun at Pocono Downs in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania with $403 over the period from September to November of last year. That's the kind of number that racinos in New York would die for. Some are not making half that much. NYRA is counting on that kind of business in the near future at its racino at Aqueduct. Although the association, in its reorganization plan (the exclusivity of which was extended by bankruptcy court for another month), projects a reasonable $275 for 2009, revenues for the 4,500 machines are estimated to reach $503 by 2012.

What the landscape for slots will be by then, we have no idea. One would think that people would get sick of them at some point! But any way you look at it, that certainly seems to be an ambitious number. No one in the state is even approaching it now, and competition is only going to increase, including two glitzy facilities opening in Philadelphia, just 100 miles to the south.

If Pennsylvania is any indication however, there's still plenty of demand and gambling money to go around. The state's VLT parlors account for four out of the top five win per machine figures on the east coast.

The Mohegan Sun in Connecticut came in second at $390 per machine, followed by three Pennsylvania casinos: Philadelphia Park at $369 per machine, the Meadows at $347 per machine and Harrah's Chester at $322 per machine. [Associated Press]

I quoted a NY Post report the other day to the effect that 18% of slots revenue goes to purses in Pennsylvania; that seemed rather high! My own research puts the figure at 9.6%, which still dwarfs the 6.5% included in the MOU, and beats the 8.75% compromise figure that the NY harness horsemen are currently negotiating for. We can certainly see why purses in the state are projected to grow so high. (And it doesn't hurt that Pennsylvania's casinos are open around the clock!)

Pocono Downs is less than two hours from Monticello Racing and Gaming Gaming and Racing; the track and racino are losing a total of $1 million a month, and parent company Empire Resorts' hopes for an Indian casino were quashed last week, at least for the time being. The crux of the harness tracks' argument for higher revenue percentages is that they can't compete, in terms of marketing nor facilities, with the Pennsylvania casinos and their more beneficial tax structure. Monticello, given its proximity to the neighboring state, would seem to be a prime example. (Though it's Vernon Downs which gets the best treatment under the bill passed by the Senate and under negotiation in the Assembly.)

It would be a sad day for me personally if the track ever closed given my history with the place. Even had the St Regis casino been approved, its continued existence may have been in doubt given how insignificant racing would have become on the income statement. Now, it seems like it's dying a slow, sad death. The news only gets worse. Pocono Downs hasn't even opened its permanent facility yet! It will double the number of machines to 2,500 when it does this summer. Furthermore, a new slots parlor opened in October at Mount Airy Lodge, also less than two hours away from The Mighty M.

(Hat tip to Albany Law School's Racing and Gaming Today.)

Zenyatta Kicks Back With Easy Win

- Santa Anita made it through the weekend, and no decision has been made on replacing it with a dirt surface. But, while the trainers seem to be satisfied with the condition of the surface, some riders have taken to wearing large safety visors in order to protect them from flying debris.

“They’ve got a lot of coarse sand and rocks in the track, and we need something to protect our faces,” said [Garrett] Gomez. “The sand stings." [Bloodhorse]

It's also worth noting for future handicapping that, according to Gomez, some horses are reluctant to run into the stinging kickback.

One horse that apparently was not bothered by kickback was the phenomenal Zenyatta, in the G2 El Encino. However, given that she was well back in last place and then way wide turning for home, perhaps she didn't encounter much. Trevor Denman seemed a bit skeptical as they turned for home when he noted that she "had to be ridden from 4th; she'll have to come down the grandstand side." She had a good 5-6 lengths to make up once she straightened herself out; but David Flores was easing her up after she blew by the three in front of her. And the really ridiculous thing is that John Sherriffs said afterwards that "She hasn’t uncorked her big stride yet, so we’re still waiting for that." [Bloodhorse] Gulp!

Given that this was the four-year old daughter of Street Cry's first stakes try (in her third career start), perhaps one can understand why she was 7-2 morning line against some legit stakes horses. She was dismissed by the Form's usually prescient Brad Free, who opined that the race was a virtual match race between Grade 1 winners Romance Is Diane and Tough Tiz's Sis. She ended up going off as the 6-5 favorite. I doubt we'll be seeing either that price or her being underestimated by the morning oddsmaker or Mr. Free anytime soon.

- As has been noted, Zenyatta is named after the Police's third album. After the reggae-infused punk rock of their first two excellent records, Zenyatta Mondata, with mainstream drivel like Do Do Do Do Da Da Da Da, or whatever it was called, was the beginning of the band's decline in my retroactive esteem, culminating in Synchronicity, an album which I find absolutely unlistenable nowadays. The late and great BBC DJ John Peel once said that he liked the fact that he would someday feel silly for liking the music he did at the time. I liked Synchronicity when it came out, and for that I feel really silly. And not in a way that I like!

Talks Stalled With Week To Go

- Matt Hegarty's article in Saturday's Form is the only reporting I've seen on the franchise negotiations in the last ten days; and it basically reported that there's very little to report.

Though negotiations were conducted in earnest over the weekend of Jan. 4-5, the participants have not discussed the extension since Sunday, officials involved in the negotiations said Thursday, because of preparations surrounding Spitzer's State of the State address on Wednesday and the death in Bruno's family.

NYRA is said to have agreed to shorten its term from 30 to 25 years in order to attempt to maintain some control over the makeup of its board. If that's the case, that would be one contentious issue out of the way, though those five years has to be the most trivial matter of all to any of us who will be immediately affected by the final solution.

The statement issued by the NYTHA last week requesting a larger share of VLT revenues than the 6.5% contained in the MOU also noted this:

The New York THA....is the only horsemen’s group in the country not protected by the federal Interstate Horseracing Act, which means NYRA is not obligated to negotiate with, and secure simulcast and other approvals from, horsemen who conduct their business at Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga.

“There is no rational, reasonable, or ethical reason that the New York horsemen racing at the NYRA racetracks should not have the same rights as every other horsemen’s group in the country,” Violette said. [Bloodhorse]

Maybe not, but there's certainly a legal reason. The NYTHA lacks those rights because of this exemption clause contained in the Interstate Horseracing Act: (except a not-for-profit racing association in a State where the distribution of off-track betting revenues in that State is set forth by law)

The host racing associations' control over their simulcast signal is a powerful tool to be sure. You may recall the dispute at Monticello in January, 2006 when the harness horsemen there withheld their permission to transmit the simulcast signal after going without a contract for a year and a half. As a result, handle on the races dropped by more than 60% and the track ultimately agreed to submit to binding arbitration which it previously insisted it wouldn't.

And recently, Florida horsemen, upset at TrackNet Media's refusal to sell Gulfstream's signal to Youbet, threatened to block its transmission altogether, even to TrackNet Media, which is half owned by the track's owner Magna.

"Our right is that we can consent for a signal to go or not go. But when we consent it to go, the track’s right is to not send it if they don’t want to, and that’s what TrackNet was doing. That’s what the Interstate Horseracing Act says. Everyone was within their rights.”

[Florida HBPA executive director Kent] Stirling said the potential loss of Youbet.com handle needed to be addressed by TrackNet Media, and after what was deemed an unsatisfactory offer, the situation was delivered to the Florida HBPA board of directors.

“We called our board and they said, 'Fine, if they won’t move from that, there won’t be a signal,' ” Stirling said. “We told TrackNet, that if we had to, we were just going to pull all the signals, and they wouldn’t have their own signal, which would be highly embarrassing to them.” [Bloodhorse]

And though the Florida group failed to force TrackNet to deal with Youbet, it did obtain more money in return. So it's certainly understandable that the NY horsemen would be upset at lacking this power. Unfortunately, the problem is not so easily solved. The industry is loathe to try to tinker with the federal law, which is part of the highly precarious and contradictory legal framework under which interstate simulcasting is currently permitted. (For more information, please read Chris Wittstruck's 2006 column on the subject, part of the US Trotting Association's informative Racing and the Law series.)

The other way around the exemption would be a change in the state's OTB system to one in which the distribution of its revenue is not set by law. (In this rather hilarious article from 2002 (pdf document), Albany Law School's Bennett Liebman argues that some such splits are indeed not presently determined by state statute, and that the NY group's status is therefore unclear.) Presumably, should the OTB's be consolidated under the new NYRA, distribution determined by law would no longer be necessary, and the NYTHA would no longer be exempt from control of the signal. Unfortunately for them, and for the industry in general, the OTB issue seems to be off the table at this time. But at least it may only be 25 years instead of 30 before we once again have this historic opportunity to revisit it.

Birthdays

- It's a work/travel day today, as the Head Chef is taking us to a spa/hotel out in Montauk in celebration of my birthday tomorrow (don't ask how old please). It's also right around the 3rd birthday of Left at the Gate, so thanks a zillion again for your support and readership.

So, no time to post today, but just a quickie... The NY Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association issued a statement asking for a higher cut of VLT revenues than the 6.5% maximum payout specified in the MOU. And again, as with the jockeys, I ask why they waited until now?

The original agreement concerning distribution of VLT revenues called for 7.5 percent to go to purses initially, rising to 10 percent after five years..

"[The 6.5%] would be disastrous," NYTHA said, and "could ultimately threaten New York's preeminence in racing . . . and force horsemen to consider relocating to other states."

By comparison, the percentage of casino revenue allocated for purses in other states includes 18 percent in Pennsylvania, 11.1 in Delaware, 10 in West Virginia and 8.25 in Florida. [NY Post]

I'll try to check in with more over the weekend. In the meantime, have yourself a great weekend, good luck at the windows, and I'll speak to you later.

One Last Try to Cushion the Blow

- In a last ditch effort to save its Cushion Track, Santa Anita is bringing in a synthetic-track expert from overseas to propose a "quick fix solution." Otherwise, a meeting of the CHRB is scheduled for Jan 17 to consider a waiver of the state's synthetic track mandate, and a return to dirt, at least for the balance of this meeting.

The waiver has the support of [CHRB chairman Richard] Shapiro, who said, "We're dealing with a crisis on our hands."
.....
Trainer Bruce Headley, a strong opponent of artificial surfaces, would like to see Santa Anita put in sandy loam and leave it there.

"It worked for 30 years until the '70s, and then they put wood products in it," Headley said.

"We didn't have the injuries, we didn't haul 'em off like we are now. I'm the only guy that saw how great the sandy loam tracks were." [Whittier Daily News]

Handicapper Bob Ike, on his Notes on a Program blog, reports:

I have been told that Santa Anita will begin removing Cushion Track on Monday or Tuesday, skip regularly scheduled cards on Thursday and Friday (Jan. 17-18), then run two or three days of “turf only” cards. All this while feverishly installing a conventional dirt track...in order to get back on a normal racing schedule, presumably by Thursday, Jan. 24.

Ike is a supporter of the artificial stuff, and, though he agrees that the statewide mandate was probably too much too soon and concedes that the surfaces are not perfect, nonetheless argues for patience, referring to the rash of breakdowns at Del Mar that prompted the action:

I do know that it was getting to be a sickening experience watching horses snapping their legs and riders going down in gruesome spills. Something had to be done, so I’m not going to flip-flop my opinion of synthetic surfaces because of this recent snafu, caused by human error/incompetence on the part of those who put down Cushion Track in Arcadia.

And hear hear to that.

- Governor Spitzer may have been reaching out during his State of the State Address, but by all accounts, state legislators are taking a wait-and-see approach; both to his claims of wanting to be more accommodative, and to the details of his proposals. James Odato, reports for the Times Union that his ideas were "courteously received," but that he seemed to search the audience for more positive feedback.

Even his promise of "no tax increase, more property tax relief, mandate relief and a smart, fair property tax cap" received spotty applause.

That may be because they're wondering exactly how the Governor is proposing to pay for ambitious proposals that include health care for children and a $4 billion endowment for state universities, while also capping property taxes. His idea to partially privatize the state lottery has been coolly received. No doubt that Republicans feel that he's shucking and jiving them.

Of course, one potential revenue source that will not be operational in 2008 is the racino at Aqueduct. Spitzer included such revenues in his 2007 budget, the lack of which no doubt contributed to the expected $4.3 billion deficit the state is facing. It was on September 4 that the Governor issued his Memo Of Understanding to grant NYRA a 30-year extension of its franchise; and at the time, he stated that an operator for the racino would be selected within 60 days. We haven't heard a discussion of that in months, and it's probably safe to say that Spitzer won't turn any attention to it until the franchise matter is settled. And who knows when that will be?

As reader Glimmerglass pointed out recently, the Interior Department rejected the construction of two casinos in Sullivan County on the grounds that the tribes that proposed them are based too far away, thus causing potential displacement of tribe members.

"The potential departure of a significant number of reservation residents and their families could have serious and far-reaching implications for the remaining tribal community and its continuity as a community." [AP]

It's always nice to know that the Feds are concerned about all of our well-being, isn't it? With all due respect to those who feel that the casinos are crucial to job creation and revitalization of the depressed Sullivan County area, this would seem to be good news for all of the state's racing interests, who don't need any further competition, especially in a centralized location like the Catskills. However, some casino experts feel that there's still plenty of gambling dollars to go around.

“The market’s just too big — even with what’s been built, there’s plenty of room for more in the Catskills,” said Eugene Christiansen, a respected analyst of the casino industry. “The demand for gambling seems to be insatiable. Nothing in any work we do indicates that people are getting tired of it. Don’t ask me why. I don’t gamble.” [NY Times]

Warm Front in Albany

- Less than two weeks to go until D-Day II, and the franchise situation has, for now, dropped off the local Albany radar screen. I haven't seen any stories that specifically mention ongoing negotiations since Jan 3. Governor Spitzer's State of the State Address [pdf document] contained nary a mention of the racing franchise nor any other gambling-related issue, other than his idea to lease the State Lottery to a private entity.

The tone in Albany seems to have been softened by Senator Bruno's personal loss and by the conciliatory tone of Spitzer's speech. Both the Governor and Sheldon Silver offered quite gracious condolence statements to their rival, and Spitzer's speech was relatively well-received, drawing muted, at least as far as these things go, statements of response from Republicans in the Senate and the Assembly. I'd guess that the warmer temperatures will continue at least through Monday, when a public memorial service for Barbara Bruno, the Senator's wife for 57 years, will be held in nearby Loudonville. I imagine that the Governor will be there, even if he's heard grumbling "Oh shit Silda, do we have to go?" as he's nudged out the door. Perhaps the two men will actually come face to face (Bruno, obviously given the circumstances, did not attend the State of the State Address).

That will leave us with a week to go, and it will be interesting to see if or when the civility fades and the personal attacks resume as the deadline once again approaches. As far as we know, the issues remain exactly the same as one week ago.

- NYRA's signal is back on TVG, but HRTV is still a no-go.

- By the way, I just wanted to clarify that, despite the attention to Hillary Clinton's victory in New Hampshire in my hunch bets post yesterday, I am not currently a supporter of the former first lady. Sorry to disappoint those of you who were going 'Yeah, figures he's one of those Clintonites.' Joe Biden was my guy - yeah, I picked a horse with no shot for a change - so now I'm a free agent with serious reservations about each of the remaining three major Democratic candidates. I guess I'm one of those un-deciders, or something like that.

But Hillary's win was truly stunning in that, unlike in horse racing, election polls and pundits are seldom wrong, or at least not nearly to the degree they were on Tuesday. You'll sometimes hear an election referred to as a "horse race," but if real races with horses were as predictable, it wouldn't be a very exciting sport. The starting gate would barely be open before Todd Schrrrmmmppff would announce that TVG is calling the race for one horse or another. And, following the rare cases in which the racing experts would have it wrong, they would, as the press is doing now regarding the primary, agonize over their failures and offer every excuse in the book. Hmmm, well that actually sounds rather familiar.

- Speaking of warmer relations, Jeff Gural and Joe Faraldo actually met in the same room, and as a result, Vernon Downs and the horsemen issued a joint press release to announce that, by mutual agreement, Friday's court date regarding Gural's threatened closure of the racetrack has been postponed until February 1; the barn area will remain open at least until that time. The meeting, which included Assemblyman Gary Pretlow, was to discuss the pending bill to increase some upstate tracks' VLT share and specify a percentage for the horsemen. "We had a very productive meeting and I'm optimistic that we'll reach a solution to all of our issues," Gural said. [Oneida Daily Dispatch]

Hunch Bets for January 9

Amazing Victory 7th at Gulfstream
Suprise Party 2nd at Beulah
Charming At Last 7th at Hawthorne
Eulogize 1st at Gulfstream
Astute 6th at Aqueduct
What's Up Dog 8th at Hawthorne
Worth A Shot - 3rd at Aqueduct

Let's go through this one more time - please do not bet on these horses unless you have good reason to other than their being listed above. And if you do, please don't come back here to yell at me if they lose!! Just having a little fun.

You want a real selection? Let's try the 4th at Gulfstream. Pletcher broke into the Gulf win column with a pair on Monday. Lucky Copy (3-1) has been off for a couple of months since a third place finish in a Belmont stakes. Contested over a yielding turf course, she set insanely fast fractions of 23 and 45.4 in the mile contest before understandably tiring; yet she stayed on stubbornly for a close third. 4th place finisher Wonderwho'sbest came back to win an Aqueduct allowance with an 82 Beyer that likely wins this race. With an inside post and not much speed outside, this daughter of Unbridled's Song should be able to set a far more reasonable pace cutting back slightly in distance with Johnny V., and looks like a routine selection for the Toddster.

Notes - Jan 8

- The California Horse Racing Board approved the transfer, if necessary, of racing to Hollywood Park from Santa Anita; and Del Mar has been placed on alert to make their stable area and Poly Track available for training.

However, SA president (and new Magna COO) Ron Charles said that the switch may not be necessary, rain or shine.

"We're going to come forward with a contingency plan that will allow us to race safely, even in the rain," he said. "We plan an announcement in the next 48 hours." Charles said the solution would allow horses to train over the main track as well. [Bloodhorse]

There's speculation that the track has applied for a temporary waiver to the synthetic track mandate which would allow them to replace the Cushion Track with a substance called dirt.

- Jockeys in New York have come forward with some sensible suggestions for the franchise negotiators; issues, such as consolidating the OTB's, that should have been a focus of these discussions from Day One. One wonders what the riders were waiting for. At this point, it seems like they're going to the whip after the finish line.

- NY Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno's wife Barbara passed away at the age of 77 after a long bout with Alzheimer's disease

On The Auction Block?

- This may be a telling passage, from a story regarding the possibility of the 20% of Curlin owned by the phen-fen plaintiffs being put up for auction:

An attorney for Jess Jackson, the founder of Kendall-Jackson Winery and owner of Stonestreet Stables, and his wife, Barbara Banke, who own 80% of Curlin, said in court documents that until the issue is resolved, it is impossible to sell the horse or the breeding rights.

"Some of the best and most viable purchasers will not consider such a transaction while this problem exists," attorney Richard Getty wrote, declining to name the potential buyers or price. [Bloodhorse]

Hard to tell whether the attorney's statement indicates that Jackson has indeed tried to shop the horse to breeders. The 412 plaintiffs are seeking to have their $42 million judgment against Midnight Cry satisfied. But even if the horse is valued as high as, say, $40 million, their 20% will only bring them a fraction of what they're owed. Plus the $445,000 in winnings that have already accrued.

Sticking With Synthetics For Now

- Reader Green Mtn Punter writes:

So glad NYRA didn't rush into synthetic surfaces, aren't you Alan? More and more it appears that too many tracks were sold a bill of goods by the snake oil salesmen.

I agree that New York has done the right thing; there was no pressing reason to rush into it here. I think California was well-intentioned, but it certainly appears as if it would have been wiser to take a more cautious approach.

A few readers have also brought up the question of whether reduced injuries are due mainly to the new track bases that are being installed underneath the artificial surfaces. And it does seem as if breakdowns have increased after the first years of use.

However, and despite the drainage problems at Santa Anita, I'm not ready to give up on synthetic tracks just yet. It may very well turn out that, in the long run, the surface does not by itself reduce the risk of injury. But still, assuming that drainage problems like Santa Anita's and aberrant biases like that at Keeneland are addressed, we would still benefit greatly from artificial surfaces if only just from the elimination for once and for all of sloppy racetracks. [That's perhaps a strange discussion to be having considering what's happened this week; but that freakish rainfall would probably have nixed racing on a dirt surface anyway, as it did at Los Alamitos. Racing has continued despite heavy rain at Golden Gate (whose Tapeta surface, Illman's stats the other day notwithstanding, is still getting only good reviews from what I'm seeing), and a Hollywood Park spokesperson told the Form that his track "could have run racing here any of the last three days."] Is there anyone who wants to see a repeat of last year's Breeders' Cup?

The elimination of dominant speed biases is another good reason to keep these tracks around in my opinion, and horses are still widely reported to be fitter from training and racing over the surfaces.

Green Mtn Punter continues: Let's start by improving the breed, as the mission used to be, and forget these ridiculous band-aids. A noble mission it is indeed, but I don't think there's been any incentive to improve the breed. Breeders have not been penalized for producing fragile horses; owners are just racing them less, retiring them earlier, and cashing in big time themselves if they're lucky enough to have a stud prospect. Synthetic tracks, in my view, may prove to be that incentive by de-emphasizing raw speed in favor of stamina. Already there have been indications of some subtle shifts based on comments by breeders I've read. In the long run, a stouter breed presumably means sounder horses and less catastrophes on the track; and thus the synthetic tracks could eventually achieve its goal of less breakdowns in that indirect fashion, even if the surfaces themselves are unable to do it alone.

Piling On Late

- I get an email alert anytime that I receive a comment, and on occasion I'm surprised to see one related to a post from long ago. It generally turns out to be either spam, or from someone who happened upon an item from the archives who is pointing out that I was wrong. It's pretty easy I suppose, with the benefit of hindsight, to go through all of the posts and pick out those circumstances, which, admittedly, are not at all lacking. There have been times that I was actually right (such as, for example, my longstanding insistence that racing in New York would go on as scheduled, and under NYRA, on Jan 1) (well? no one ever asked about Jan 23!), but I don't get many congratulations on those; guess that's just the way things go.

Here are a couple of recent examples. Before last year's Belmont, when owner Larry Roman was threatening to run Digger in protest of Street Sense's defection, he said that Hard Spun would “need to be going :44 if he’s going to go by us in the first four furlongs.” So I wrote that the horse "couldn't run a 45 second half even if they wanted him to." So the recent commenter inquired: Do you still believe that Digger cant run a 44 half?

Since the Belmont, Digger, now co-owned by IEAH Stable, has won three stakes races and set a pace of 44 2/5 in the Jerome. So, yeah, I guess he can. Though he didn't on Saturday when he couldn't keep up with a slow pace and was eased in the stretch. "It didn't feel like anything was wrong; he just did not try to compete," said [jockey] Horacio Karamanos. [Wash Post]

And then there's the comment I received regarding my criticism, in a post from May, 2006, of West Point's entry of Flashy Bull in that year's Derby. I wrote that the horse didn't belong in the race, and was being used merely as a promotional tool for the syndicate. The commenter wrote:

if you owned flashy bull and you had the chance to run in the ky derby...you bet your ass you would be there. that horse had every right to be there. you dont earn a spot in the derby for shits and giggles. he is now a grade I winner. nobody thought he would win a grade I, yet he won the stephen foster. so, for the record terry finley knows how to pick good horses and knows where to run them. look at the stats for 2007 for west point you ignorant know nothing.

West Point certainly had a good year in 2007. I never questioned Terry Finley's ability to pick horses (though I have his ability to select a prospective NY racing franchise holder and his acting in an ethical manner as a member of the board of the NYTHA when it endorsed Empire). And yes, Flashy Bull won a Grade 1.

But I don't at all regret anything I wrote in that post. Taking a look at his past performance lines prior to the Derby (pdf), we see that, after graduating from the maiden ranks in his 5th start, Flashy Bull was plunged right into graded stakes company. He vindicated that decision with his OK second in the slowly-run Remsen, and respectable performances in the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth. He was then thrashed in the Florida Derby, after which trainer Kiaran McLaughlin came up with the 'thumps' excuse. So, he went into the Derby off a distant 7th place finish, eligible for entry level allowance races, and with a career best Beyer of 94. Doesn't add up to Derby to me, then or now; the fact that he subsequently improved and won a weak Grade 1 (defeating Magna Graduate, Diamond Stripes, Jonesboro, Wanderin Boy, Master Command, Wiggins, and Mr. Umphrey) notwithstanding. His "effort" in the Derby, when he merely galloped wide around the track, did little to dispel the thought that he was just there for the photo op.

Flashy Bull was thrashed when moved up to "real" Grade 1 company for the Whitney, and then came up with one of those convenient injuries that allowed him to be retired with his 'Grade 1 winner' status, and without any further damage to his reputation from racing against top tier competition. Too cynical a view? Probably. If so, and to borrow from the Mike Huckabee playbook, whilst I of course would never be so negative, others might suggest that perhaps the horse would have remained sound at four had he not previously been pushed to a level of competition for which he was not suited at the time in order to be used as a sales tool for West Point. Though I never said that.

Three At The Gulf

- If you wanted to show someone in a nutshell why we love this game, the 7th, 8th, and 9th at Gulfstream on Sunday could be Exhibits A, A1, and A2.

In the 7th, the G3 Sabin, Golden Velvet seemed as if she might be home after disposing of Pletcher's favored Mini Sermon around the eighth pole. But Darley's Lady Marlboro, who stayed inside while Golden Velvet took the overland rote, chipped away steadily after squeezing through inside, and appeared to get past the leader at the end. The cameraman focused on her after the finish. The slow motion replay showed that Lady Marlboro had clearly gone by in the final strides. But Golden Velvet got every possible inch of the head bob; I thought she won. So I think that if you had Golden Velvet, you should consider yourself fortunate that you managed to get a share!

The 8th was a three-year old maiden race on the grass, and Barclay Tagg's 9-5 favorite The Cat's Affair swept wide around the field to the lead with 9-1 My Princess Jess right to her outside. The two cleared the rest of the field around the eighth pole, and from that point on, this was as good as it gets. My Princess Jess was valiant, but Tagg's filly just refused to give up the lead. The final margin was a slowly diminishing and short neck, and I don't know that extra ground would have helped the runner-up.

The defeated filly was very impressive though for her trainer Bobby Barbara, taking off like a rocket midway through the turn and sustaining her run to the wire. It was her second start, and first since a second place finish at the Big A in November (a race that also produced I Lost My Choo, a bombshell winner of the 4th race [and the second such longshot of the meeting for Phil Serpe]). My Princess Jess is by Stormy Atlantic, out of a Pleasant Colony half sister to the champion and Distaff winner Jewel Princess.

The 9th, the G2 Hal's Hope, was an impressive showcase for Chatain. Cornelio Velasquez could not have been more confident as he eased him up steadily from the back of the pack. The rider was peeking behind him while a full five wide on the turn, and Chatain just exploded home once asked for run in the stretch, skipping home in 12.43. The final time of 1:36.39, while not particularly fast, was a second faster than the girls in the Sabin.

This son of Forest Wildcat is now five, and if Angel Penna Jr. can get him to stay healthy, perhaps he'll really show us something, especially since the trainer plans to stick to the shorter distances he seems to prefer. "It’s hard to plan too far ahead because of his various problems, but one possibility will be the mile race in Dubai...No more two-turn races.” [Bloodhorse]