tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post114533004017035302..comments2024-03-05T05:38:22.024-05:00Comments on Left at the Gate: Monday Night Notes - Apr 17Alan Mannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12570505944559196118noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-1145372403256426062006-04-18T11:00:00.000-04:002006-04-18T11:00:00.000-04:00Because of the expected pace scenario, I have to b...Because of the expected pace scenario, I have to believe that Sunriver could have a breakout race should he make it in despite his current 25/26th place earnings. If my understanding is correct he had a rough trip in the Fla Derby, and closed strongly against a decided speed bias to catch 3rd. In addition, he is quite experienced around two turns, unlike many others. In order to maintain his currently expected longer price on Derby day, I would prefer if Pletcher waits for defections rather than trying to earn his way in by running Sunriver in the Lexington.<BR/><BR/>If it were run today, I would guess that Sunriver would go off at 20-1 (given Pletcher's profile). He could add punch to any exotics and, if they go a little too crazy on the front, ......Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com