tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post6674743576138566561..comments2024-03-05T05:38:22.024-05:00Comments on Left at the Gate: Lousy Race on a Crummy DayAlan Mannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12570505944559196118noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-55826080842231046962009-09-01T14:11:41.234-04:002009-09-01T14:11:41.234-04:00Especially when the horse I included as my longsho...Especially when the horse I included as my longshot in that race was Pletchers other horse, perhaps I pick the German filly otherwise, perhaps not, but this type of information should be public.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-52896183590863615782009-09-01T11:01:03.288-04:002009-09-01T11:01:03.288-04:00To answer the earlier commenter, I knew about the ...To answer the earlier commenter, I knew about the Lasix because it was announced repeatedly at the track (it was on the NYRA TV feed as well). I had no idea about the Pletcher factor until afterwards, and frankly, think something stinks about it. There seems to be the air of a conflict/problem with not disclosing who's actually training/watching the horse for a week, especially when that <b> same trainer </b> has another horse in the race (Captain's Lover).El Angelohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-72061241769602421482009-09-01T08:43:19.385-04:002009-09-01T08:43:19.385-04:00Harl, I was specifically replying to an inquiry by...Harl, I was specifically replying to an inquiry by another commenter about his playing P4's with a modest budget ($70-80 per day), less than the $150-200 you are averaging. <br /><br />At that level, combined with Crist's ABCX strategy of course the P4 is a very good play, especially when you are as disciplined as you appear to be.<br /><br />But a casual on track player with an $80 daily budget should not be sinking $24-36 bucks of that into a P4, at that level I believe it is a sucker's bet, as is the P6. <br /><br />Sure, the player could invest the entire $80 into a P4, but for a casual player I think it is unrealistic to expect him to spend an entire day at the races and make that one play. If they are sitting home in their living room, then yes, that is a good idea, concentrate on whichever P4 sequence you feel good about, make the one bet, and hope and root for a good outcome.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-29972706100483928532009-08-31T23:20:14.052-04:002009-08-31T23:20:14.052-04:00Glad we saw the handwriting on the wall (months ag...Glad we saw the handwriting on the wall (months ago) and skipped the two-week trip to Saratoga.<br /><br />We've sat through these mega-elongated 109-race cards in the cold rain at Saratoga and believe me, it is slavery.<br /><br />Joe T? Hopeless. He sounds like he's been castrated.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-1978741428377418272009-08-31T22:11:53.654-04:002009-08-31T22:11:53.654-04:00I must be a sucker! The pick 4 wager has made up 9...I must be a sucker! The pick 4 wager has made up 95% of my personal handle the last three years and I have almost eliminated vertical wagers entirely. I can't remember the last time I placed an exacta or trifecta, let alone a superfecta (but if I looked it up, it's probably been a solid year). <br /><br />I usually play two or three pick 4s a week with a weekly budget of $600. I average one "win" just under every two weeks, but that "win" is usually more than $1 ticket as I employ Crist's spread strategy.<br /><br />I've returned a higher percentage on my investment since focusing on this type of wager and all but ignoring straight win wagers and other vertical wagers. Occasionally, when there is a big carryover in SoCal (my home circuit), I'll put my week's budget in a big pick 6 play, again using Crist's spread strategy.<br /><br />I keep meticulous records which really helps when Uncle Sam comes calling every April. <br /><br />I can see where the horizontal wagers can be intimidating for smaller budgets, but if you're going to go spend a couple hundred at the track on a given day, why not sink it in to one pick 4 play with less takeout and a better chance at a large score rather than 10-15 small bets that you might break even on if you hit a couple of them.Harlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16515575955224982258noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-32454021705308185932009-08-31T21:40:46.170-04:002009-08-31T21:40:46.170-04:00Can't speak for El An but I was aware of the G...Can't speak for El An but I was aware of the German Fillies 1L, was listed in changes at 1030am on NYRA site, why it took so long to announce on track I have no idea.<br /><br />Was not aware of the Pletcher connection until I read Alan's link, but the 1L combined with the bog had me considering her until the paddock antics.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-17355514534716681312009-08-31T21:02:23.408-04:002009-08-31T21:02:23.408-04:00Rumor's spilled today in Albany of MGM/Peebles...Rumor's spilled today in Albany of MGM/Peebles as a NYRA favorite choice for VLT award. If you read the Paul Post piece in the thoroughbred times this afternoon, NYRA General Counsel Patrick Kehoe suggests that a Paterson decision is near and it could be a prominent gaming company. As we know, Post writes stories for the NYRA and Kehoe doesn't speak in Charlie's place unless he has a messsage to convey. NYRA's reign of power and influence persist, so it would be easy to believe that this organization is trying to get one of its choices across the line, particularly if it could get this Governor to roll over like it did Eliot Spitzer. With all of MGM's regulatory problems with the Chinese Ho family and organized crime and a community friendly development background of Don Peebles in Washington D.C and South Florida that is arguable, can David Paterson really give this combination thumbs up? <br /><br />http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/national-news/2009/August/31/Governor-could-receive-gaming-recommendation-by-Friday.aspx<br /><br />I remember seeing this post earlier in the Aqueduct process, from mid May on this blog:<br /><br />Anonymous said... <br />If real, last post loaded with goodies! Charlie Hayward categorically denied NYRA's involvement with any of the bidders in the racing press, although the last poster isn't the only one that had heard about former MGM folks and NYRA working real close in Albany. <br /><br />To that point, from the minutes of the April 2nd, Community Board 10 meeting in Queens: "Ms. Liz Bracken (NYRA, V.P.) stated that NYRA President Charlie Hayward has been in touch with Albany to help move the process along to not have an extensive re-bid that would take many months. Mr. Hayward has been working with them on a plan that MGM had originally proposed to see if they could actually implement that plan instead of doing re-bids because there were certain permits in place over that plan."<br /><br />Sounds like the NYRA is much more involved in this process than some other bloggers want to believe.<br />___________________________________<br /><br />Hard to know what to think when the NYRA starts pushing around 50 some years of entrenched NY political influence that extends all the way to Washington D.C.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-16341765355043219272009-08-31T20:43:35.881-04:002009-08-31T20:43:35.881-04:00No love for the Hammer.No love for the Hammer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-79967000069892646602009-08-31T18:17:46.192-04:002009-08-31T18:17:46.192-04:00Worst on air handicappers:
1. Hank Goldberg
2. Ha...Worst on air handicappers:<br /><br />1. Hank Goldberg<br />2. Hank Goldberg <br />3. Todd Schrupp<br />4. Paul Lo Duca<br />5. Todd Schrupp<br /><br />Honorable Mention: Hank GoldbergMcCarronnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-19280373825831719372009-08-31T18:10:16.851-04:002009-08-31T18:10:16.851-04:00To El Angelo:
With regard to the Filly (Salve Germ...To El Angelo:<br />With regard to the Filly (Salve Germania), forget for the moment her breeding--were you aware of <br />1st time Lasix? (Not shown on the Form but in changes), and were you aware of Pletcher getting her ready?--Not that Pletcher is burning up Grade 1's or anything lately, but still I'm curious if you knew, and if so please educate me with how you knew--Thanks--raceracenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-83253315156385411862009-08-31T13:53:30.138-04:002009-08-31T13:53:30.138-04:00Maybe the group referred to below are those that G...Maybe the group referred to below are those that Governor David Paterson looks to for advice on the Aqueduct deal per James Odato and the Times Union article from earlier this month. Although, Alan's Patrica Lynch response is probably as much a factor! <br />__________________________________<br /><br />Aqueduct bidding costs<br /><br />The state could spend $658,000 on the latest round of bidding for a racino operator at Aqueduct because it has farmed out key duties to consultants. Manatt, Phelps & Phillips is getting up to $600,000 for legal work; Public Financial Management will get as much as $58,000 to analyze bids. Manatt employs Faso; PFM employs John Cape, the state's former budget director. <br />___________________________________<br /><br />Shortly after the Times Union report, The Daily News did a piece on potential conflicts between the Manatt firm and Delaware North<br />http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2009/08/the-ties-that-bind-in-aqueduct.html<br /><br />What about the fact that the PFM Group represents the University of Buffalo Foundation, while prominent Delaware North Companies executives Jeremy Jacobs, Jr. & J.M. Jacobs are University of Buffalo Trustees? Would seem to me like the PFM Group might have some real conflict here. Was the PFM Group working as advisors to Governor David Paterson, Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver and Senate leader Dean Skelos in last falls bid award that fell apart?<br /><br />In any case, between Patricia Lynch and ties to members of the State's bid advisory group, Delaware North and the Buffalonians are well represented.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-85265331172660985732009-08-31T12:38:38.418-04:002009-08-31T12:38:38.418-04:00>>Who does he refer to when he says that &qu...>>Who does he refer to when he says that "he's waiting for advice" in order to make a decision?<br /><br />Patricia Lynch?Alan Mannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12570505944559196118noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-63441034095331893242009-08-31T11:59:40.597-04:002009-08-31T11:59:40.597-04:00I read the link to Paterson and the Aqueduct deal....I read the link to Paterson and the Aqueduct deal. i thought he was the governor? Who does he refer to when he says that "he's waiting for advice" in order to make a decision?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-13089993737429892352009-08-31T11:17:48.037-04:002009-08-31T11:17:48.037-04:00Admission was $5 grandstand, $10 clubhouse. Perso...Admission was $5 grandstand, $10 clubhouse. Personally, unless you have seats there, I don't see much of a reason to go to the clubhouse at the Spa. I just think a lot of the locals, etc., stayed away because it was just awful out yesterday.El Angelohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-4691515123008826002009-08-31T10:56:47.993-04:002009-08-31T10:56:47.993-04:00>>Alan, do you think the $10 GS admission co...>>Alan, do you think the $10 GS admission contributed to the low turnout? <br /><br />Honestly, I did not know that they were gouging customers for the Travers. If it did contribute, then it serves them right!!<br /><br />>>What do you think of Governor Paterson's vague statement about the timing of a decision on the Aqueduct deal that he delivered on Traver's day?<br /><br />No surprise to be sure....and it sounded to me as if a decision is still several weeks away, doesn't it? Here's <a href="http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=836410" rel="nofollow">the article</a> on Paterson's comments.Alan Mannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12570505944559196118noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-38424506202253412532009-08-31T10:49:21.394-04:002009-08-31T10:49:21.394-04:00Alan, do you think the $10 GS admission contribute...Alan, do you think the $10 GS admission contributed to the low turnout?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-88450069329762423472009-08-31T10:05:20.554-04:002009-08-31T10:05:20.554-04:00As a rule Lasix relaxes a horse, guess here is thi...As a rule Lasix relaxes a horse, guess here is this is the usual behavior for this filly, which is why she underachieved without the lasix in Europe.<br /><br />She was also my final throw out in the P4 only because of her antics. Euro filly that had competed in Graded company, first time lasix, aggresively placed against a short priced favorite that is not her best on soft turf and a bunch of underwhelming opponents.<br /><br />Unfortunately the horse I added instead later in the sequence was scratched in the post parade, ouch.<br /><br />Sunny Jim, agree the P4 and P6 are sucker bets if you dont have the bankroll, you should stay away and concentrate on DD's instead where you can still find value if you happen to like a long shot like the German filly.<br /><br />Alan, interesting point that the filly was shipped to Pletchers barn out of quarantine and the plan since day one was for him to take over the training. <br /><br />If this information had been public, think the price might have been a tad lower? I know I would not have been so quick to toss.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-11847029432389765702009-08-31T09:58:26.470-04:002009-08-31T09:58:26.470-04:00Alan,
What do you think of Governor Paterson...Alan, <br /><br />What do you think of Governor Paterson's vague statement about the timing of a decision on the Aqueduct deal that he delivered on Traver's day?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-32681818711653567732009-08-31T09:43:23.106-04:002009-08-31T09:43:23.106-04:00Angelo - Good points, and it is nice to spread mon...Angelo - Good points, and it is nice to spread money around in exotics and hope for a Salve Germania. But questions like these are something very few talk about on the blogs or anywhere else, almost like it's taboo, or bad manners: How much do you bet? How much can you afford to lose in a day? How much of your personal budget - at the end of the year - is given over to gambling losses (assuming of course you are in the red not black in a given year)? <br /><br />I would surely be at the lower end of the scale. This is what I meant by smaller bankroll guy. With Pick 4's, even with 2,3 or 4 horses in each race, a total of $70 or $80 for one bet is like a vacuum cleaner sucking up most of what's in my wallet for the whole day. I just can't do it. <br /><br />One more thing with Salve Germania - If you are watching the paddock and post parade and see a horse rear and buck, throw the jockey, and then get loose on the track, isn't the rule to toss that horse for using all its energy up before the race? Castellano said the big crowd had her nervous, but could it have been more than first-ever lasix she was juiced with? Can lasix zonk a horse out like that?jamesphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10607923720458834783noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-67282597568620479542009-08-31T09:28:42.359-04:002009-08-31T09:28:42.359-04:00I'm not certain Rachel found an easier spot in...I'm not certain Rachel found an easier spot in the Woodward. Past the Point nearly upset Curlin last year and based on dominant comeback race at 7F may be better this year.<br /><br />Problem is he won't offer any value since everyone will be pointing to last year's Woodward.Dunquenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-59224089868251949472009-08-31T09:00:30.805-04:002009-08-31T09:00:30.805-04:00Sunny Jim, I couldn't disagree more on Salve G...Sunny Jim, I couldn't disagree more on Salve Germania. I had her in all my wagers until her pre-race antics made me reconsider (oops) because besides Rutherienne the field was pretty uninteresting, and she had very very good turf breeding (Peintre Celebre out of a Monsun mare). She was certainly more interesting than taking 5-1 on a Tom Proctor horse. Had she not behaved like a borderline psychopath in the paddock and on the track, she would have been a lot closer to 15-1. Given that, the Pick Four was actually very hittable, because the last two legs were chalky, and Indian Blessing was a bad favorite. I don't agree that the P4 is a "sucker bet", I do think it's a waste, though, if you're throwing $40 or less at it, because you do need to keep your options open.<br /><br />Alan, I went on Saturday, and from walking around and from another source, NYRA's attendance figure is inflated by 8 to 10 thousand. The place felt like a Friday; not empty, but not crowded.<br /><br />If I were Quality Road's connections, I would be targeting the Jerome and Cigar Mile as my next steps. Short horse or not, I'm still unconvinced he want any part of 10 furlongs, to say nothing of synthetics.El Angelohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-60306687453599781282009-08-31T08:48:27.028-04:002009-08-31T08:48:27.028-04:00These TV guys can take a lesson from you Alan and ...These TV guys can take a lesson from you Alan and start doing what you do (IMHO with as much expertise as anybody else in the business): Find beatable favorites and point them out. <br /><br />The only problem is it's STILL tough even after you pick out the beatable ones. Of the 27 total entries in Saturday's late Pick 4 races, I thought Salve Germania was one of the handful of throwout horses. A 1X, $30,000-lifetime horse running against multiple stakes winners, from European connections nobody heard of? <br /><br />She wins and pays fifty bucks and knocks out the huge majority of tickets from the million-dollar pool. Yeah, it pays $8,500 and it gets the crowd buzzing on a big undercard day, but the only possible way I would have her is with an 'ALL' ticket, which gets prohibitively expensive for us lower bankroll guys. This is why the Pick 4 to me is mostly a sucker bet. I would much rather take a bunch of horses and use them in a $1 Daily Double with the contenders in the next race. This in fact works for me by far and away more often than any other type of bet. As you and your readers well know you gotta cash some of those tickets in order to keep going in this game.<br /><br />Cheers, and have a great final week at The Spa.jamesphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10607923720458834783noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-12746412024381813192009-08-31T08:31:25.070-04:002009-08-31T08:31:25.070-04:00Saeed bin Suroor is one of the most personable tra...Saeed bin Suroor is one of the most personable trainers I've ever met in the stable area.<br /><br />If you like talking horses and their training regimens, then he's a Turf writer's dream come true.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13554792681227665669noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-64774820731388638612009-08-31T08:30:50.908-04:002009-08-31T08:30:50.908-04:00Alan, my recollection is that General Assembly se...Alan, my recollection is that General Assembly set a track record on that day thirty years ago and that track record still stands.<br /><br />Saratoga is a miserable place to be on a rainy day. Not enough cover, not enough seats.<br /><br />There is the myth of Saratoga and the reality of Saratoga, and they are two very different things.ballyfagerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16946523913002020541noreply@blogger.com