tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post7187435264552316531..comments2024-03-05T05:38:22.024-05:00Comments on Left at the Gate: Derby Horse-by-Horse - Part OneAlan Mannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12570505944559196118noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-63158151455414413082007-05-05T09:47:00.001-04:002007-05-05T09:47:00.001-04:00My comments on Street Sense's races this year so f...My comments on Street Sense's races this year so far. <BR/><BR/>Tampa Bay Derby - no reason in the world why Nafzgar would have him anywhere near fully cranked for that race, it was a nice conditioning race which he happened to win. <BR/><BR/>Bluegrass - complete throwout from a speed figure perspective because the race was run so oddly. Again, Nafzgar had no reason at all to have this animal fully cranked when the Derby has been the target all along. Dominican had to be fully cranked for that race, without the cash he never had the earnings to get into the Derby. Differnet training objectives by both parties for that race. One trying to win it, the other using it as a stepping stone for today.<BR/><BR/>In addition, Polytrack is NOT Churchill downs. I would not overate any horse running great on that surface or underate any horse whose effort did not appear splendid unless of course they have decided to run the Derby today on the stuff - I don't think they have last time I checked. By the way, last fall Street Sense also got passed in the lane on the Keenland Polytrack the race before the BC Juvenile. Anyone see a similiar pattern developing regarding this traning/big race pattern lately for SS??<BR/><BR/>Dominican has 3 lifetime wins, ALL on the Keenland Poly. Geld this, geld that. He still has not run a truly big race on natural dirt or Churchill to date, and I doubt he suddenly decides to do it Derby day. If they move this afternoons race to Keenlands Poly I'll play him, otherwise a complete throwout. Just grabbing at proverbial "poly"ester straws IMO.<BR/><BR/>I'm not gonna reach for to many straws in this Derby, and attempt to justify betting horses with marginal qualifications and achievements just because their odds are high. Street Sense, Curlin, Scat Daddy and Circular Quay, I'll box them all in tri's and supers and heavily bet SS to win with perhaps a saver win bet on Curlin.<BR/><BR/>Hard Spun - I like this horse a lot and he's bred to love mud, just love it. But its hard to play an animal when his connections have consistently avoided facing the best of his generation, and now want to take them all on in the big dance at 1 1/4 where I think he'll be finishing in a crawl after being on or near the early lead later today. I think experience against quality counts for a lot and he does not have it! This is also what scares me about Curlin, not the lack of foundation (I think that's BS) but rather he has never beaten anything of note, has never run in a route with solid early fractions and has never beaten quality G1 routers who actually finish their races by running at the end. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt mainly because of my perceived potential of his ability which is large - he's this years true X factor. Today he gets the acid test for class and if he passes it, I'd hate to look back and see I could have had 7-1 on the most talented beast in the field. His Ark derby is not overly impressive to me. They ran the 1st 6 panels in that race at the slowest pace since 1988 so he should have been able to run fast late. What's more why were none of his Ark opponents running even moderately fast late after going that slow early and mid race? Answer: because he was racing against true junk. Most solid Derby contenders could have looked visually impressive in the lane against that field IMO.ghostzapper2007https://www.blogger.com/profile/10770101252027013481noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-25502700192220957682007-05-05T09:47:00.000-04:002007-05-05T09:47:00.000-04:00My comments on Street Sense's races this year so f...My comments on Street Sense's races this year so far. <BR/><BR/>Tampa Bay Derby - no reason in the world why Nafzgar would have him anywhere near fully cranked for that race, it was a nice conditioning race which he happened to win. <BR/><BR/>Bluegrass - complete throwout from a speed figure perspective because the race was run so oddly. Again, Nafzgar had no reason at all to have this animal fully cranked when the Derby has been the target all along. Dominican had to be fully cranked for that race, without the cash he never had the earnings to get into the Derby. Differnet training objectives by both parties for that race. One trying to win it, the other using it as a stepping stone for today.<BR/><BR/>In addition, Polytrack is NOT Churchill downs. I would not overate any horse running great on that surface or underate any horse whose effort did not appear splendid unless of course they have decided to run the Derby today on the stuff - I don't think they have last time I checked. By the way, last fall Street Sense also got passed in the lane on the Keenland Polytrack the race before the BC Juvenile. Anyone see a similiar pattern developing regarding this traning/big race pattern lately for SS??<BR/><BR/>Dominican has 3 lifetime wins, ALL on the Keenland Poly. Geld this, geld that. He still has not run a truly big race on natural dirt or Churchill to date, and I doubt he suddenly decides to do it Derby day. If they move this afternoons race to Keenlands Poly I'll play him, otherwise a complete throwout. Just grabbing at proverbial "poly"ester straws and hoping you get lucky and he decides to run well on real dirt finally IMO.<BR/><BR/>I'm not gonna reach for to many straws in this Derby, and attempt to justify betting horses with marginal qualifications and achievements just because their odds are high. Street Sense, Curlin, Scat Daddy and Circular Quay, I'll box them all in tri's and supers and heavily bet SS to win with perhaps a saver win bet on Curlin.<BR/><BR/>Hard Spun - I like this horse a lot and he's bred to love mud, just love it. But its hard to play an animal when his connections have consistently avoided facing the best of his generation, and now want to take them all on in the big dance at 1 1/4 where I think he'll be finishing in a crawl after being on or near the early lead later today. I think experience against quality counts for a lot and he does not have it! This is also what scares me about Curlin, not the lack of foundation (I think that's BS) but rather he has never beaten anything of note, has never run in a route with solid early fractions and has never beaten quality G1 routers who actually finish their races by running at the end. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt mainly because of my perceived potential of his ability which is large - he's this years true X factor. Today he gets the acid test for class and if he passes it, I'd hate to look back and see I could have had 7-1 on the most talented beast in the field. His Ark derby is not overly impressive to me. They ran the 1st 6 panels in that race at the slowest pace since 1988 so he should have been able to run fast late. What's more, why were none of his Ark opponents running even moderately fast late after going that slow early and mid race? Answer: because he was racing against true junk. Most solid Derby contenders could have looked visually impressive in the lane against that field IMO.ghostzapper2007https://www.blogger.com/profile/10770101252027013481noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-32852284324558390592007-05-04T09:05:00.000-04:002007-05-04T09:05:00.000-04:00Been thinking a lot and ZANJERO is my longshot her...Been thinking a lot and ZANJERO is my longshot here. Note the quiet consistency and a great post position. This is the type of horse that surprises on Derby Day. He's also impeccably bred for the mud, so in case it rains, we have that insurance policy. The others I like are CURLIN, DOMINICAN, and CIRCULAR QUAY. I finally figured out what bugs me about STREET SENSE. With the trip he got in the TB Derby he should have crushed AGS, but he didn't. Were they really going well in the lane? Not sure. I'm afraid of STREET SENSE enough to use him on my exacta mass-box, but I think he might be a false favorite. Good luck all! <BR/>________________<BR/><BR/>Rotopro.com for your Derby analysis free of charge, and well worth the price!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-89459705761754781082007-05-03T14:54:00.000-04:002007-05-03T14:54:00.000-04:00>>I challenge you to a completely unbiased analysi...>>I challenge you to a completely unbiased analysis of AGS's chances! <BR/><BR/>I will do my best! stay tuned...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-33422319418475168342007-05-03T14:40:00.000-04:002007-05-03T14:40:00.000-04:00Also, anxiously awaiting and hoping for your ratio...Also, anxiously awaiting and hoping for your rationale as to how AGS will have no problem with the 18 spot.<BR/>I've been liking HS and AGS all spring and now that you've talked me out of the former, I'd really like a reason to hold onto AGS! Although you've been pretty invested him too, perhaps placing you at risk for betting with heart...I challenge you to a completely unbiased analysis of AGS's chances!Erinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04966895737564174215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-72268740258196246422007-05-03T14:01:00.000-04:002007-05-03T14:01:00.000-04:00Alan, you make a great point about Hard Spun's joc...Alan, you make a great point about Hard Spun's jockey. I was ready to take a risk on him despite the fast work just because he supposedly looked good doing it, but that won't matter if he gets a ride as bad as that workout.<BR/>I also appreciated you pointing out the fractionals on his work as compared to SS. That's a little detail that reveals much, and not the kind of thing most media are astute enough to point out.Erinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04966895737564174215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-12781100842142882482007-05-03T13:44:00.000-04:002007-05-03T13:44:00.000-04:00Kentucky Oaks1. Cotton Blossom2. Octave3. Tough Ti...Kentucky Oaks<BR/>1. Cotton Blossom<BR/>2. Octave<BR/>3. Tough Tiz's Sis<BR/><BR/>Kentucky Derby<BR/>1. Hard Spun<BR/>2. Nobiz Like Shobiz<BR/>3. TBD<BR/><BR/>Oaks/Derby Double<BR/>Cotton Blossom/Hard Spun & Nobiz Like Shobiz<BR/><BR/>LennyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-63286872908410006912007-05-03T13:01:00.000-04:002007-05-03T13:01:00.000-04:00Don't overthink the speed, think about if these su...Don't overthink the speed, think about if these supposed speed horses hook up, you're looking at 1:11 for 6f, that's well within scope a for a stalker of Derby Caliber. Giacomo has got you all scared. Don't forget AA and Closing argument were still able to hold well in that derby and they were scorching hte earth up frontPatrick J Pattenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10365169347148710377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-26809577346871568992007-05-03T12:23:00.000-04:002007-05-03T12:23:00.000-04:0014,16 / 12,14,16,19 / AllMay throw Nobiz in the wi...14,16 / 12,14,16,19 / All<BR/><BR/>May throw Nobiz in the win. Haven't decided yet.Bretthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14333752772232432182noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-83365850064461306242007-05-03T11:58:00.000-04:002007-05-03T11:58:00.000-04:00Only 30for60 mentions Nobiz Like Shobiz thus far.....Only 30for60 mentions Nobiz Like Shobiz thus far... Was discussing him with someone else who likes him; he's hoping the horse is at least his 8-1 morning line. I think he's going to be overlooked in the betting and may present some value to those who fancy him. I'm concerned however, among other things, that he could be part of that mid-speed scenario that could set things up for the closers.Alan Mannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12570505944559196118noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-10767250049190497972007-05-03T11:45:00.000-04:002007-05-03T11:45:00.000-04:00Is it really necessary to hit the all button in th...Is it really necessary to hit the all button in this race? <BR/><BR/>I think we can eliminate some of these without major risk. <BR/><BR/>I also feel like there's enough early and mid speed to set it up for the off-the-pace horses. <BR/><BR/>And I have no problem with a grade 3 turf race factoring into graded earnings. However, here's what they should do: Make the top 12 graded earners eligible to get in. Then vote on the remaining field of would-be entrants. Something like that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-2391686826612943952007-05-03T11:33:00.000-04:002007-05-03T11:33:00.000-04:00Take this to the bank:ALL/ALL/ALLSeriously, I like...Take this to the bank:<BR/><BR/>ALL/ALL/ALL<BR/><BR/>Seriously, I like DOMINICAN, CIRCULAR QUAY, and TIAGO:<BR/><BR/>15,16,19/15,16,19/ALLHarlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16515575955224982258noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-57546749530204985682007-05-03T11:25:00.000-04:002007-05-03T11:25:00.000-04:00I'm such a ridiculous Philly homer that I would pi...I'm such a ridiculous Philly homer that I would pick any colt who ever was vanned through the area, but I just can't see Hard Spun this time.<BR/>I think he peters out at the top of the stretch.<BR/>Great Hunter is a Pa-bred so I will go with him. <BR/>Do not like Street Sense at all.<BR/>Maybe Curlin is for real.<BR/>Chelokee looks good for Preakness and possibly Belmont.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-75868790604672634392007-05-03T11:11:00.000-04:002007-05-03T11:11:00.000-04:0012/14/ALL12,14/12,14/ALLClass wins this time and t...12/14/ALL<BR/>12,14/12,14/ALL<BR/>Class wins this time and these two are the class of the fieldAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-37956552961193440862007-05-03T11:04:00.000-04:002007-05-03T11:04:00.000-04:00I agree, theoretically, with tossing Hard Spun on ...I agree, theoretically, with tossing Hard Spun on the basis of that fast work, but didn't Smarty Jones run 5F in 58 a week before his derby? And Hard Spun just seems to be so full of energy this week...I just can't toss him. <BR/><BR/>For me, Curlin is more interesting than bettable. I want to see what comes next with that one.<BR/><BR/>Your assessment of Imawildandcrazyguy is genius.<BR/><BR/>For all the numerologists, Dreaming of Anna and Street Sense both were PP#1 in their Juvi races. They both won. This time, they are both #7 posts. Will they both finish 7th? Can I bet that?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-87166141995712896822007-05-03T09:59:00.000-04:002007-05-03T09:59:00.000-04:0016/7,15,20,/ALL16/ALL/7,15,20PP's ensure paceFalls...16/7,15,20,/ALL<BR/><BR/>16/ALL/7,15,20<BR/><BR/>PP's ensure pace<BR/><BR/>Falls apart at the 1/4 poleAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8711985.post-69626275358325423802007-05-03T09:17:00.000-04:002007-05-03T09:17:00.000-04:00I'm sensing an AGS pick, however come 2 minutes be...I'm sensing an AGS pick, however come 2 minutes before derby time you will have already changed your mind.Bretthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14333752772232432182noreply@blogger.com