Beginning of the End

- It’s the last week of the Belmont meeting, and it’s funny how the field sizes seem to have grown as the end of the meet approaches, whereas it’s generally the other way around. Still, the card consisted mostly of the races that have managed to fill all meet - maidens, state-breds, and turf. Edgar Prado rode three more winners, padding his insurmountable lead and seemingly rubbing it in. Training leaders Bill Mott and Juan Rodriguez/Richard Dutrow went head and head as the latter temporarily tied the race by taking the 4th with a 2 yo NY-bred filly Caught Inthe Zip (City Zip). But two races later, Mott scored with Pimentinha (Wild Event), a 3 yo filly cutting back to 6 furlongs on the turf and getting it in 1:08.39.

Bruce Levine put over a first timer at 17-1 in another division of the 2 yo state-bred filly affair. Doll Baby is a David Cassidy-bred, and she’s by Citidancer (Dixieland Band) out of a Desert Wine mare. She has inbreeding to Northern Dancer and Hoist the Flag; she’s a half to another winning Cassidy product, Half Heaven, and her second dam is the granddam of the durable millionaire Continental Red.

And yet another winner for the Castle Village/Billy Turner team, with Seaside Salute taking the 7th.

- Wild Desert’s lack of published workouts, just two between the Arkansas Derby in April and his win in the Queen’s Plate got the old wink-and-nod treatment, but now it’s no laughing matter to racing officials in New York and New Jersey, both conducting investigations of possible chicanery and deception. In fact, the racing secretary at Monmouth, where one of the workouts was listed at, says "We have no record of the horse shipping in or out of Monmouth Park." He won the Queen’s Plate and his owners bragged of making big money at the mutuel windows. Wild Desert was transferred to Richard Dutrow after Oaklawn and was in the care of Bobby Frankel for the Queen’s Plate. "I don't know anything about it.....They asked me to run the horse in my name in Canada. That's what I did. That's all I know." [Daily Racing Form]

Notes - July 20

- Another grave injury to a jockey yesterday, this time at Finger Lakes, where Omar Camejo is in guarded condition at a local hospital. Jockey agent Bob Jobson, on the scene when Camejo was being attended to, said, "He was barely breathing when the first help arrived. ... He was spitting blood. ... They did a tracheotomy and put tubes in his lungs to help him breathe." [Democrat and Chronicle (Rochester)]

- Funny Cide's connections are trying to figure out what to do with their now 5 yo faded star after his anemic performance in the Brooklyn Handicap. Robin Smullen continues to use the heat as an excuse - "His temperature was elevated after the Suburban. It wasn't what you would consider in the range of heatstroke, but it was way above normal." But Bill Finley in the NY Times points out that the gelding has raced successfully under those conditions in the past.

Funny Cide has handled the heat before. It was 80 degrees for the 2004 Suburban, in which he finished third, beaten by a neck. It was 81 degrees for this year's Suburban and 80 degrees when he ran so dismally in the Brooklyn, not the sort of extreme temperatures that should cause a horse a problem. [NY Times]

Perhaps his connections should recall that he's a NY-bred, and look for a state-bred stakes for him just to get him back on the board and possibly regain some confidence. If he's even able to handle that at this point.

- Interesting story from Ellis Park via Albany Law School Racing and Wagering Page.

Dr. Mitzi Fisher, longtime state veterinarian, recently was asked by the racing authority for her resignation. On Thursday, recent hiree Dr. Camme Miles was working the starting gate when Blades Hill, second choice in the field of seven at $2.20-$1, should not have run.

In a combined 42 years of charting races, the two chart callers at Ellis Park representing Equibase Co. LLC had never seen a horse flip in the gate, get stuck in the stall for one minute, extracted, reloaded and allowed to compete in the race.

Stewards, who should have withdrawn the horse, noted the vet said the horse was OK. Miles said the horse wasn't washed out or limping, and noted that she had grown up in the western United States and lots of quarter horses flip in the gate. She also said the jockey, Eddie Zuniga, said he would ride.

This isn't quarter-horse country. When horses are on the ground, they come out. It was poor judgment on behalf of protecting the betting public. Blades Hill had to have been scared out of his mind. He was last at every call, never was competitive and beaten by nearly 15 lengths. Those holding tickets weren't happy. [Evansville Courier & Press]

This article in the Thoroughbred Times seems to link Dr. Fisher's departure to the developing story concerning ignored drug positives in Kentucky.

- At least one resident in the area around Lincoln Park is unhappy about the plans to add 1,750 more slot machines to the greyhound track. "We have a lot of late-night traffic...Those people are wide awake because they were playing the slot machines." Yeah, those slot machines are sure invigorating; I'm sure they get everyone all hepped up. Nonetheless, many people in Lincoln, RI point to a local ordinance requiring a referendum to approve any expanded gambling, but state legislators have held that an expansion consists of a change in the type of gambling, not just adding new machines.

"How can you add 1,750 new machines and say you're not expanding gambling?" said resident Anthony Baglini. "That is just very insulting to the intelligence of the people that live around here. Call it what it is." [Providence Journal]

- Among the first year sires who sent offspring through the ring at the Fasig Tipton yearling sale this week was Officer. Though just 5 of his 12 foals that went into the ring drew high enough bids to sell, they averaged $128,400. Officer (Bertrando) represents the In Reality sire line, is totally free of Mr. Prospector (his broodmare is a granddaughter of Seattle Slew through Septieme Ciel), and his only instance of Northern Dancer is in his 6th generation, as time marches on. His high seller went for $180,000, and is indeed out of a Mr. Prospector line mare through Carson City.

Officer was undefeated going into the 2001 Breeders Cup Juvenile, coming off a dominating win in the Champagne, his 5th straight victory. He was the 3-4 favorite in the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Belmont for Baffert, but got involved in a speed duel with fellow freshman sire Came Home (who had 3 of 5 sell at the sale for an average of 115K) and faded to 5th, five lengths behind winner Johannesburg ($16.40). He won only once more in 3 tries after that debacle, and that was in his only start as a 3 yo, the Zany Tactics Stakes at Santa Anita. You can watch that race as well as his Champagne on this page, though they have the links reversed. Note the complete effortlessness with which he won each. In the Zany Tactics, Trevor Denman exclaims "Officer is just cantering out here - Just an amazing performance; if he goes any slower he's gonna start trotting as he comes to the wire." But that was his last race and he was off to stud at Gainesway for $12,500, since raised to 15K.

Wishing for Alex

- NYRA officials are obviously hoping….pleading…..praying that Afleet Alex graces Saratoga with his presence, but the Cash is King crew is firmly committed to the Haskell Invitational at beautiful Monmouth on August 7. It’s been awhile now since the Haskell was moved to a Sunday, which eliminates any realistic chance that I would go and battle the coming home from the Jersey shore traffic on the way home. (I’ll be starting a solid week in Saratoga that day this year anyway. :-D) I imagine they don’t want to conflict with the Hambletonian, which always falls on the Saturday before. Given Monmouth’s relative proximity to Philadelphia, who knows what kind of crowd they’re going to have this year.

Anyway, with the Preakness/Belmont winner running less than 3 weeks before the Travers, NYRA will be at the mercy of the racing gods.

"I would love to see him run in both races," [Tim] Ritchey said recently outside Barn 19 at Belmont Park, where Afleet Alex has been since winning the Belmont on June 11. "If he is healthy and doing well, then he will. The Haskell is the first race up. It's very possible to do both races, but we will just have to wait and see how it goes between now and the Haskell, and then between the Haskell and the Travers."
…..
"I love it at Saratoga," said Ritchey, who will have 12 to 14 horses saddled there. "Having him there would be good for racing. Obviously, it would be great to go back there and run in the Travers." [Albany Times-Union]

20 days between Grade 1 stakes wasn’t that big of a deal in years past, but it is now, unless it’s a horse like Afleet Alex. Or Golden Man I suppose. As for Alex, a recent diary on his website shows that he’s doing fine.

I feel great... I am not going to the track as much as I used to... it's just so hot! I know Tim gets real hot too! He gets all wet when we go out... I wonder why he wears all that stuff, he wouldn't be so hot if he took everything off! [Afleet Alex.com]

I thought this website was supposed to be suitable for the whole family?

- Nice story by Glenye Cain in the Form regarding breeder Rosilyn Polan and her first day session-topping El Corredor colt that drew $385,000 at the Fasig Tipton yearling sale. Going into the two-day auction, Polan's best price for a sale horse was, as well as she could recall, somewhere below $100,000.

Much to her husband's chagrin, Polan turned down private offers of $70,000 and $80,000 when the colt was a weanling and a $125,000 offer the week before the July sale.

"My husband was sick," she said of Kenneth Ross, who admitted that, in retrospect, his wife knew what she had better than he did.

Holding 7-year-old daughter Laiken on her hip, Polan was both exuberant and tearful about the sale, which came after two decades of hard work. Polan and Ross bought Sunday Morning Farm almost 20 years ago, gradually working up to eight mares on their 100 acres. [Daily Racing Form]

El Corredor (Mr. Greeley) is a half-brother to Roman Ruler who won 7 of 10 starts including the Grade 1 Cigar Mile. He had a pretty good sale, with 6 out of the 10 offerings selling for an average of just under $180,000 – this for a sire with a $20,000 fee. He’s been credited with four winners in his first 2 yo crop thus far, including the filly Adieu, winner of the Astoria Stakes at Belmont. If you go to this page here, you can watch his win in the Cigar, in which he defeated fellow promising sires More Than Ready and Golden Missile.

Rosilyn Posan’s sale topper is out of Meadow Bryte (Meadowlake), whom Polan bought for $51,000. According to Bloodhorse, Polan liked Meadow Bryte because she had a "babydoll head" and big, strong-looking hindquarters. However, what I’m not reading anywhere in the trades is the fact that, according to this article, this mare who sold as a 2 yo for $375,000, was sold to a slaughterhouse for $450 in 2004. Huh? What’s up with that?? (As usual, nice to see the racing press asking the tough questions.)

Gloomy Post (mostly)

- If you happen to be around Hollywood Park this week and notice workers installing a new turf course, don’t take that to mean that the Terminator has suddenly embraced the slots that would save the track.

"The course was in such bad shape that we'd already told Churchill Downs we wouldn't sign a contract to run horses in the fall unless the course was replaced," said [Thoroughbred Owners of California executive director Drew] Couto, whose organization has nearly 9,000 members. "So this is nothing new. We need more of a commitment than that from the new owners." [Orange County Register]

They could also probably use a little more support from the fans. The daily attendance dropped 6.6% from last year to a historic low of 7,796. The recent construction of a [Indian] casino and shopping center on a portion of Hollywood Park's parking lot already generates $4.5 million in revenue a year, $1 million more than the racetrack. [Canyon News] Whatsmore, the land is apparently growing more valuable every day.

Inglewood's assessed value rose 21 percent from fiscal years ended Sept. 30, 2000, to Sept. 30, 2004 - from $3.835 billion to $4.656 billion, including a 5 percent increase the past year.

"When Churchill Downs bought Hollywood Park (for $140 million in 1999), there were 378 acres there, but 140 acres have been sold and now we have major chains coming in like Home Depot, Costco and Wal-Mart that we didn't have before," Weinberg said. "The Renaissance at Hollywood Park, our first gated residential community, will have its first occupants moving in by September." [Bloodhorse]

And if there’s any doubt about what the new owners intend to do:

"You notice the name of the company is Bay Meadows Land Company," owner-breeder Morry Cohen said. "It's not Bay Meadows Racing Company. That tells you all you need to know about what they plan to do." [Orange County Register]

Gary West notes that it wasn’t just the numbers that were even bleaker than those at Hollywood for the recently concluded Lone Star Park meet, another track that has yet to reap the benefits of slots:

The season that concluded Sunday was by any measure the worst in Lone Star Park's brief history. The quality of racing provided occasional relief to insomniacs; the handle and attendance numbers tumbled down in an avalanche; the racing surface drove both horsemen and horseplayers mad; and even the horses themselves got sick.

Hard to believe, isn't it, that just nine months ago Lone Star was host to horse racing's championship event, the Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships?
.....
Average daily attendance fell 19.5 percent from a year ago, to 7,000, and average on-track handle 13.1 percent, to $1,077,000. [Dallas Ft-Worth Star Telegram]

Well, gee, there’s got to be some good news out there, doesn’t there?

Not at the Fasig-Tipton's Kentucky July select yearling sale, where the kickoff to the yearling sales season lost ground in the stretch.

The average and median slumped 11.8% and 6.3%, respectively, after soaring to all-time highs last year. Meanwhile, the buy-back rate advanced from 25.2% last year to 38.8% this year.

"It wasn't as easy as it was last year, but it was a good horse sale," said Fasig-Tipton president Walt Robertson. "Good horses sold well, but the average horses didn't seem to sell as well." [Bloodhorse]

Elaborating on the sales results, Robertson did an excellent imitation of Donald Rumsfeld in saying mostly nothing.

“Was it that we didn't have as many special horses? Possibly. Could the market be getting tighter? Possibly. I can't answer that. I do know that last year we had some obvious horses that we knew were going to bring a lot of money going in and this year everybody was scratching their heads, as you well know, trying to find out where the top was going to be. We had a fairly a good idea, but it wasn't as obvious as it was last year. Those upper horses, if you don't have them in your sale, you miss them." [Bloodhorse]

No million dollar babies here. The sales topper went for $650,000. Hip 393 is a colt by Giant’s Causeway, out of a Carson City mare. He’s named MacArthur Causeway and he has quite the interesting pedigree. He’s inbred 4x3 to Secretariat and 4x4 to Blushing Groom, and his third dam is Comely Nell, who was not only the dam of Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner Bold Forbes, but also a mare from whom has descended an absolute multitude of stakes winners including Saratoga Six, Lakeway, and Life at the Top. Comely Nell and the story behind the mating to Irish Castle that resulted in a Derby winner is the subject of this interesting article at Equine Info.

Lee Eaton & Red Bull Stables, a partnership between Lee Eaton with Marvin Waldman and Sam Lyman, purchased Comely Nell as a yearling along with a Tim Tam filly named Tammy Twist as a package from Calumet Farm. Both of these fillies had physical problems and were essentially being culled. Tammy Twist was bred to Turn-to in 1965 and sold in foal that year carrying Tammy's Turn who is the 2nd dam of Belmont Stakes winner Conquistador Cielo. Comely Nell, who was blind in one eye, was retained by the partnership and bred to some of North America's leading sires. Her first foal by Vertex was sold as a yearling in 1967 at the Saratoga Yearling Sale for $11,000. Her second foal by Double Jay sold for $23,500, also at Saratoga. Her next was a colt by Double Jay, which brought $25,000 at the Keeneland Summer Sale.

Her next three foals by To Market, Ambiorix, and Drone sold at Saratoga for $15,500, $8,500, and $7,000 respectively. These horses were good enough to break their maidens in the major racing centers such as New York and California, but by 1972 it had become clear that there were no stakes winners on the horizon. Lee Eaton believed that as a market breeder if a mare fails to throw a stakes class foal in her first three breedings, it is best to cull her.

When Lee Eaton told his partners that the time had come to replace Comely Nell in the broodmare band, they were against this option. They were very fond of the partially blind mare and they thought she might have difficulty adjusting away from her familiar paddocks. Besides, she was cute. Lee then suggested that if they were to breed her too cheaper stallions in the $1,500 range that maybe they could keep her.

Since the partnership had just bought a share in Irish Castle for $6,000 which put his stud fee at $1,500, it was decided to breed Comely Nell to this speedy son of Bold Ruler.
.....
Lee Eaton and his partners realized only $15,200 when their future Kentucky Derby winner was sold as a yearling, but they were to profit handsomely later. A return mating to Irish Castle produced Priceless Fame, a full sister to Bold Forbes. For the partnership, she produced Dunbeath by Grey Dawn II, winner of the William Hill Futurity G1. To the cover of Alydar, she produced Saratoga Six who sold as a yearling for $3,000,000.

Monday Night Notes - July 18

- As Del Mar sets to open, Belmont enters its final week before NYRA moves to Saratoga for what could be its next-to next-to-last meeting there before losing the franchise as many expect. Bill Mott has an edge of 20-19 over Juan Rodriguez for the training title, and Todd Pletcher. Mike Hushion and Christophe Clement, with 17 wins each, still have a shot. [Daily Racing Form] Juan Rodriguez is the NY assistant trainer to Richard Dutrow, currently serving his drug suspension. If he goes on to win, it could call more attention to those proposals in Kentucky to suspend the horses; a concept that seems to be making more and more sense.

Dutrow has a propensity to do some unconventional things especially when it comes to running horses back on short rest. So when one of his surrogates pulls such a move, it’s clear that Dutrow is lurking on the dugout steps calling the shots and that his suspension is a farce. This reached an extreme this past weekend when his Golden Man, in the care of his brother Anthony (on Sunday anyway), ran third in the G3 Long Branch at Monmouth on Saturday, and then the very next day rallied past High Limit for second in the G3 Leonard Richards.

"The trainer chose to run him and we allowed him to run," said longtime racing official and Delaware steward Dennis Lima. "I've seen it before. I’ve seen a horse run twice a day in Rhode Island years before. Back in the days of Narragansett Park and Lincoln Downs."

Tom Gilcoyne, retired historian at the National Racing Museum and Hall of Fame, pointed out that Rushaway won the 1936 Illinois Derby and Latonia Derby on back-to-back days.

"Before [being] completely cooled out, he was vanned 40 miles into Chicago and left there that evening for Cincinnati, Ohio, which he reached early next morning and was hurried across the Ohio River to the Latonia course," historian John Hervey wrote of Rushaway in the 1937 book, ‘Racing In America.’ "At five that afternoon, in the Latonia Derby worth $12,125, he polished off Holyrood, the favorite, and all the rest of the field in summary style. He ended five lengths ahead. The next morning he awoke to find himself famous. Rushaway has never won a race of importance since then." [Thoroughbred Times ]

I wonder how many people who bet on the race actually knew that Golden Man had run the day before? The Form of course did not have the race in their print edition, at the very least; in fact, the Form didn’t even have that note that he’d been entered in another race you usually see. (Right above him in the past performances is Papi Chullo, with the note “Entered 15Jul05-5BEL.”) Though Delaware Park’s racing secretary said that they “had to put out a new [past performance] on this horse,” I would lay odds that many people who wagered had no clue, and that at least a few bettors were taken by surprise when the Delaware race caller referred to the feat as Golden Man rallied to take the place.

- Trainer Scott Lake must be glad to see the Belmont meeting come to an end; it’s been a tough go with just 5 wins to his credit. However, at Delaware it’s a different story. Lake is by far the leading trainer there, with 44 wins; his closest competitor Michael Pino, has 31. Lake is doing it with sheer numbers though; he has by far the most starts with 160 to Pino’s 97! Of course, the disparity between his winning acumen at each track will only increase the suspicions regarding his methods since his troubles at Belmont correspond with the imposition of the prerace detention procedures.

Where's the Value?

- I don't know how much, if any, Dan Borislow contributed to Wild Desert's 1-4 odds in the Prince of Wales stakes, but the Toronto Globe and Mail reported that Borislow was subdued after the race.

The Wild Desert team descended on the Fort Erie Race Track with such aplomb that majority owner Dan Borislow, who calls himself the biggest bettor in the United States, had a wagering window reserved for him at the track's Prince of Wales dining room.

Winner Ablo set tepid early fractions which the favorite couldn't overcome. Jockey Patrick Valenzuela said Wild Desert "kicked on very well. If it had been a mile and a quarter today, I think I would have got it. But it was a 16th of a mile too short." [Buffalo News] These excuses may very well be valid, but the warning signs were there, given the unnaturally slow time of Wild Desert's win in the Queen's Plate, and the similarly lethargic workout the colt had at Saratoga last week.

Last year's Louisiana Derby winner Wimbledon returned to the races after a 15 month absence and ran third Sunday as the 17-10 second choice at the Solano County Fair. He was 5-2 in the 2004 Santa Anita, ran 5th, and suffered a tendon injury prepping for the Derby under Bob Baffert. Y'know, there are a lot of races available for wagering everyday. There has GOT to be better ways to invest ones money than betting at low odds a horse whose condition was questionable like this one. Don't you think he'd be running somewhere other than a county fair if he was anything like he was last year? Even if he won, so what? Don't people care about value when they wager? Why would anyone have bet on High Limit off his layoff at 7-10 Sunday? Was he really that much less disappointing this past spring than 5-2 Sun King? Wild Desert at 1-4? Did winning the Queen's Plate in glacial time make him the second coming? Do some people just have to bet on every race?

Personally, I don't make straight win bets on any horses at such odds - you'd have to bet like Dan Borislow for it to have any impact on your life, and I'm certainly not the biggest bettor in the United States. But even if that's your thing, there's got to be about 100 better such favorites to bet on every week; horses with proven and current form running on familiar racetracks against familiar foes for leading trainers and jockeys. Once upon a time, bettors had a small menu of races to bet - just the ones at the track they were at. Now, with endless choices at many tracks, there's no excuse for not exercising a little patience and discretion with one's investments; that's my opinion anyway.

- On Sept 30, 2003, the President of the United States said "If somebody did leak classified information , I'd like to know it, and we'll take the appropriate action." Today, that same president raised the bar, saying, "If someone committed a crime , they will no longer work in my administration." (Links via Daily Kos) Left at the Gate has learned that tomorrow the president will say "If someone committed a crime while wearing all blue and listening to Morrissey on a Tuesday or non-Jewish religious holiday between 8 and 10 AM that results in death or mutilation of a non-Muslim, gross malnutrition, chicken pox, root canal, or the inability to speak any language but French, then he may possibly maybe perhaps perchance we'll see I'll think about it I'll ask my daddy no longer work in my administration unless his first name is Karl." Remember, you heard it here first.

Here Comes The Sun

- Given the clouds and rain that seemed to blanket the east coast all weekend, one might think it was the wrong weekend for a horse named Sun King to make his return. But with blinkers on, Nick Zito's one time Derby hopeful got his first win since the Tampa Bay Derby with his triumph in the Leonard Richards at Delaware on Sunday.

"You saw the real Sun King again," said Zito.. "He sort of redeemed himself, although I don't know if you want to say that about horses.

"The blinkers were a minor thing that made a big difference. He was on his game today. Did you see him gallop out after the wire? If the race was longer he would have won by a pole [a furlong]." [Delawareonline]

High Limit was made the 7-10 favorite; perhaps the crowd was influenced by the horse’s past success at Delaware, where he easily won his first two career starts. He got off to a bad start, and rushed up wide on the turn to challenge. Edgar Prado said, "We wanted to go to the lead and set a good pace. We weren't able to do that. I had to check him at the start, and that hurt." In the end, he wasn’t even able to hold off Golden Man, making his second start in two days after running third in the Long Branch at Monmouth on Saturday. Making High Limit the odds-on favorite was not the worst decision by the betting public however. Sort It Out was sent off at 9-2, and not surprisingly finished dead last. Bob Baffert, will you please give this horse a break?

- As the bureaucracy of turning Pennsylvania’s slots laws into action plays out in leisurely fashion, the four existing tracks that stand to benefit from the machines are chomping at the bit. On Thursday, Pocono Downs harness will hold a press conference to unveil their building plans. The unveiling will also include details of new restaurants and stores and the Downs' new name and logo.

[Track CEO Robert] Soper said the earliest the Downs could receive a conditional license to operate slots is January or February. Mr. Hays agreed that is likelier now than a December date commission members discussed earlier.

A full-blown slots parlor will take a year to 14 months to build, Mr. Soper said, but Downs officials are hoping to operate slots in a temporary facility before then. [Scranton Times]

I imagine that once the tracks are granted permission to house slots, they would operate them in the parking lot and that Mr. Soper would surrender his reserved spot if that’s what it takes to get the money flowing. From the sound of things, it could be quite some time before they can operate the machines anywhere. The commission must still finalize rules for licensing suppliers of slot machines.

Without licensed suppliers, manufacturers have no suppliers to buy and re-sell their slot machines. Besides that, the state slots law says no licenses to operate slot machine venues may be issued until at least three months after the commission decides on the first applications for licenses to manufacture and supply slot machines.

The article goes on to describe the tangled web of politics and corporate lobbying that you would expect to be associated with such a process; it’s 2-5 that this ordeal of merely selecting the suppliers before licenses can be issued will take on a life of its own.

- Neil Drysdale sent out two British imports for the mile and a half G2 Sunset BC Handicap on closing day at Hollywood. Yours truly thought that One Off had the edge based on his experience at long distances overseas, but it was instead Always First who got a great rail-skimming ride by Victor Espinoza had held off the fast closing Runaway Dancer, who put in another explosive Megahertz-type move in the stretch, but settled for a dead heat for place with TH Approval. Drysdale commented: "We've been aiming for this. Sometimes getting those European horses are a little like Christmas. You aren't quite sure what is in the package." [LA Times] This package is by Barathea, a son of Sadlers’ Wells, and out of a mare by Dilum, a daughter of Tasso (Fappiano). Her distaff side features a plethora of major European stakes winners including Royal Palace.

Lots of Slots

- More slot machines are coming to Rhode Island’s Lincoln Park greyhound track. How many more?

IN A YEAR or two, there could be as many as 4,752 slot machines at Lincoln Park.

That's more machines than all but one of Atlantic City's casinos. The Trump Taj Mahal had 4,419 machines as of Dec. 31. Caesars Atlantic City -- now owned by Harrah's Entertainment -- had 3,226. [Providence Journal]

Rhode Island governor Don Carcieri (R) and the state legislature signed off on a deal to facilitate the sale of Lincoln Park to BLB Investors. In addition to more machines, the buyers will also get a 15 year tax break in exchange for a commitment to renovate the track.

With the state already hooked on gambling revenue and with fears of expanded gambling in nearby Massachusetts in addition to existing casinos in Connecticut, the Providence Journal piece (ID-projo@dodgeit.com; password-bugmenot) conveys a sense of helpless resignation about this latest gaming expansion, and certainly more to come. The governor conceded, “I'm not a big fan of gambling.... However, "we have Lincoln, it exists and we've got to provide for its future."

Rep. Nicholas Gorham, R-Coventry, said that because "we are afraid to raise taxes . . . we are expanding gambling, which is bad policy."

Gorham said it "shows how heavily . . . we are going to rely on gambling evermore, every day, from this day forward . . . and we are just going to keep going for more and more."

Gambling is the state's fastest-growing source of income. Only the personal income tax and sales tax provide the state with more revenue.

"This industry has to be protected because it is the third largest revenue stream," Rep.
Charlene M. Lima, D-Cranston, said Friday in support of the legislation...Whether or not you are in favor of gambling or against gambling is totally immaterial because we have come to rely on these revenue sources for many important programs."

The deal was reached at the 11th hour after a bit of gamemanship by BLB, who set a deadline of Friday night. The House and Senate were both called into special session and Carcieri stayed at the Statehouse into Friday evening while the bills were prepared for his signature. The agreement includes a clause to compensate BLB for "slippage"

...by which BLB will be protected from a loss of revenue if the state approves a casino in West Warwick. Should a casino open and Lincoln Park's revenues are lower than state officials estimate they should be, the percentage of revenues the park turns over to the state would be lowered commensurately. [Pawtucket Times]

At the same time, the bribery retrial of executives of the soon-to-be former owner of Lincoln Park is getting under way with jury selection having been completed this past week in Worcester, Mass. The track and two of its former executives are accused of trying to bribe the state House Speaker in an effort to obtain more VLT’s and prevent approval of an Indian casino.

- Some guy won the big poker tournament, and I'm sure the Average Horseplayer will have some info on that. The LA Times' Peter KIng notes that the action is not as fast-paced as it might seem on TV.

As the tournament progressed and the stakes rose, the play seemed to slow to a cautious crawl. The last big-name player — Mike "The Mouth" Matusow — was the first of the nine finalists to be eliminated, and rather abruptly. His fellow celebrity professionals, present to provide expert commentary for ESPN, consoled him, describing his play as perfect and the opponent who ousted him as a lucky dimwit.

His departure seemed to suck energy from the room, and a night of tedium, broken by brief moments of drama, ensued. Make no mistake, whatever virtues it might have as a canned television show, tournament poker is hardly a spectator sport. Not for nothing does ESPN reduce 2,300 hours of taped play to 23 hours of programming.
.....
Here were a handful of players — many of them college graduates who learned the game of Texas Hold 'Em on the Internet, some attired in shorts and sandals — positioned around a green felt table that bore the logo of a sponsor: a male potency enhancer. Cameras tracked their every move, and the crowd had the feel of what it was: a TV game show audience. [LA Times, via Yahoo]

- Things unraveled for 6-5 Delaware Handicap favorite Isola Piu Bella faster than Karl Rove's explanation of his talk with Matthew Cooper. She acted up in the gate and unseated John Velasquez; then she got off a step slow. Still, she was sitting in her usual 4th, and just came up empty in the stretch. For Island Sand, it was her first win since the 2004 Acorn as Bailey overcame the outside post. Trainer Larry Jones said "They came by the stands the first time and she was about eight wide and I said, 'Here we go again.' But (Bailey) got her tucked in about three wide – I don't know how. I'm really thankful." [Bloodhorse] Island Sand is by dead stallion Tabasco Cat, out of a Forty Niner half sister to 2004 Queen's Plate winner Niigon.

Rock and Roll is Here to Stay!

- Unfortunate that the rains came to Delaware Park and Colonial Downs on big race days there. In the Delaware Oaks, jockey Stewart Elliot said that favored Round Pond didn’t love the going. "The racetrack was not her favorite [Saturday]. She kind of fought through it and we started to move up. I took her outside of horses to get in good position, but she didn't push for me at the end." [Delaware Online] Round Pond was narrowly favored over Sis City, who also had trouble with the going. The winner, R Lady Joy (Vicar), was sent to the post with extreme confidence by trainer Kirk Ziade.

"I went to the owner and told him to give me two months and I will clean up in the Delaware Oaks, I don't care who's in it," Ziadie said. "She was having a little bit of problems physically. She didn't switch leads and she swallowed her tongue, so we had to put on a tongue tie.” [Daily Racing Form]

R Lady Joy had run second in the slop in the Black Eyed Susan, and a peek at her female family shows mud-loving names close-up like her broodmare sire Cormorant, as well as Valid Appeal. In the Dick Memorial, it was Honey Ryder easily handling the soft track at 4-5.

- And “Rock and Roll is here to stay,” exclaimed track announcer Sam McKee as Rocknroll Hanover dominated the $1 million Meadowlands Pace, storming down the stretch to win by 3 with a :27 final quarter en route to a stakes record 1:48 3/5. Driver Brian Sears sent his colt up to the lead at the half, and when he turned and saw second choice Stonebridge Regal moving up first over to challenge, it just took a couple of whip taps on the sulky, and the challenger never got within a length. "I had no thought of letting him pass me." [Newark Star-Ledger] For Stonebridge Regal, who held for third, it was the ol front hobble hanger excuse.

- Got a note in my email that Bellamy Road worked 4f in 51.36 over the Saratoga training track.

- Congratulations to my friends at Castle Village Farms; great day yesterday with Willfulness running a fine second in the 6th, and Brave Sir Robin taking the nightcap for trainer Billy Turner. Our 2 yo Highland Cat breezed from the gate this morning and he’ll get his gate card up at Saratoga. When I told the Head Chef about the boring name voted for the colt, she replied “Well, it’s better than Flower Alley.” But she said the name really funny, like FLO-wer AL-lee. It sounded very familiar but I couldn’t quite place it until I realized she must have watched the Lane’s End from Turfway with me, and she was unknowingly doing an excellent imitation of Mike Battaglia’s nasal, exaggerated inflections. If I hear Battaglia calling “and it’s HI-lan CAT” in next year’s Lane’s End, I’ll be very happy.

Sunday Morning Notes - July 17

- Reaction continues here to the dismissal of NYRA’s racing secretary Mike Lakow, as NYRA honcho Charles Hayward met with unhappy trainers, but didn’t provide any real clue as to why Lakow was let go. The Troy Record’s Nick Kling talks about the odd timing of the move, noting that Lakow was prominent at NYRA’s pre-Saratoga press conference a couple of weeks ago. That's akin to a major league baseball team, excepting any club owned by George Steinbrenner or the late Charley Finley, showing up for spring training with one manager and opening the season with another.

Longtime NYRA observers have noted with pleasure that Lakow has incorporated challenging and unusual race conditions into his daily programs. Among them are conditioned claiming races, optional allowance/claiming races, and open allowance events that provided an exemption for certain restricted races. None of these were part of the NYRA schedule under Lakow's predecessors. [Replacement P.J.] Campo told me that he will likely see how things go during the first condition book, when asked about potential Saratoga changes. After that he will consider adding something new in the second book. Among the innovations he wants to try are 51⁄2-furlong turf sprints at the Spa. NYRA bettors have longed for these type of turf dashes, which are a staple at tracks around the country.

(Personally, I could do without those races. They’re off, you lose....)

- - John Brunetti has failed in his bid in the Florida courts to reverse the revocation of his license to have racing at his Hialeah Park. Brunetti tried to argue that he was not able to conduct race meetings because of the "undisguised conduct of its competitors," Gulfstream Park and Calder Race Course, which have not allowed Hialeah to perform unopposed racing dates.

The court, however, was not sympathetic to Richard's argument. "As Hialeah's remaining point on appeal lacks merit, there is no basis for disturbing the final order." The order reads that failure to operate can only be due to "the direct result of fire, strike, war, or other disaster or event beyond the ability of a permiholder to control." The court said Hialeah's decision not to run its races was "based purely on an economic concern." [Sun-Sentinal]

- Big upset in the Bowling Green at Belmont as 26-1 Cacht Wells stalked pacesetter Salic Law through crawling fractions of 26.28, 51.94, and 1:17.19. But once they started sprinting home after the mile in nearly 1:41, it was Cacht Wells putting Salic Law away in a :22.1 quarter, and the longshot gamely held off even money favorite Relaxed Gesture in a final eighth of :12.2. Unfortunately, the winner pulled up lame and had to be vanned off. "He took a bad step pulling up," [Stanley] Hough said. "It doesn't appear to be that bad. He's been doing great. This is the farthest he's run, but he's always acted as a steady-paced horse. I thought he would go the distance, but I didn't know about the company." [Bloodhorse] Hough had two winners on the day and at least one more in the last couple of days I recall. His other winner Saturday was a first time 2 yo, and he’s always had a reputation of being adept with those; in fact, he’s currently hitting at 20% with first timers, but the $1.50 ROI shows that he’s no secret. And here, Trippi Appeal was bet down to 6-5 despite being the 7-2 second choice in the morning line. Watch his 2 yo's at Saratoga.

Cacht Wells was Elbar Coa’s third winner of the day. Brice Blanc was in to ride Relaxed Gesture, but the day was worthwhile as he picked up two winners elsewhere on the card, including 40-1 Elusive Image in the 4th.

- Wild Desert's owner Dan Borislow was asked by the Buffalo News if he was planning to bet a lot on his horse in today's Prince of Wales Stakes.

Borislow, who retired five years ago at age 38 on the proceeds of the sale of his telecommunications company, said he planned to bet a lot "relative to what other people bet" but not so much according to his usual standards.

However, he added, "If I could get even money, I'd go hog wild."

(via Albany Law School Racing and Wagering Page)

- Please feel free to email me with questions, comments, suggestions, or whatever.

Looking Better Than Me

- Another day of short fields and short-priced favorites at Belmont on the second to last Friday twilight card of the meet, can Saratoga come soon enough? The 7th and 8th races both had 4 horse fields, no show or triple betting. A couple of names from the Triple Crown fringe got wins. Vicarage took the feature, and Papi Chullo, who ran last in the Florida Derby, got his maiden win at 3-5. Another prohibitive favorite went down the tubes - this time a .35 to 1 shot, Crunch the Numbers, for Richard Violette. The winner, Looking Best, was one of two winners for trainer Allan Jerkins, and Tom Bush had a pair as well. One of those was a 3 yo first time NY bred filly named Chamonix; she was 9-2 morning line, but got punched down to 6-5. According to the chart she broke awkwardly, was steadied, raced greenly early on, rallied four wide approaching the stretch, dug in gamely outside and prevailed after a long drive. It’s a great game, isn’t it?? Chamonix is a half-sister to a couple of state-bred stakes winners, Sherpa Guide and Fait Accompli, and seems destined to follow in their footsteps.

- Colonial Downs has three stakes today, including the G3 $750,000 Virginia Derby for 3 year olds. Pletcher has the probable favorite English Channel, but it looks like a competitive race with Rush Bay, Spring House, and Rey de Cafe. Prince Rahy oddly is entered just 6 days after running 3rd in the Lexington. But I love 3 yo filly turf races, and we also have at Colonial the $200,000 Virginia Oaks. Rich in Spirit figures to be the favorite after her G3 win in the Regret in a field high Beyer of 92. But there are some interesting contenders. Masseuse tries stakes company for Jimmy Toner after going 2 for 2 on the turf with easy wins and improving figs. She’s by Dynaformer, and is a half to grass stakes winner Second Performance.

Dynamist is another daughter of Dynaformer; she got her first stakes win in the Rhudy Memorial at Delaware two weeks ago. It’s a short turnaround to this race, but who’s to question trainer Michael Dickinson? Then there’s My Typhoon for Bill Mott and Jerry Bailey. She has Melhor Ainda in two of her four lifetime running lines, and she’s won the other two, including the Hilltop on Preakness day, in which she was bet down to 7-10 in her first race in 7 months. Her last was a 3rd to the abovementioned turf star in the Sands Point, and she’ll find no one like her in here. She’s by Giant’s Causeway out of Arc de Triomphe winner Urban Sea and is a half to several European graded winners including English and Irish Derby winner Galileo, so wow; with her connections you could do a lot worse than backing her.

- If the trotter you bet breaks before the race actually starts as my selection Diesel Don did in the Stanley Dancer Trot last night, instead of the old Abbott and Costello line “They’re off, You lose!”, it’s instead “You lose, They’re off!” Talk about left at the gate! Never mind that he didn’t have any breaks whatsoever in his PP lines! But it was doubtful that anyone was beating the winner Classic Photo anyway. He showed versatility by this time rallying from three deep on the outside and getting the win in 1:53.4. This established him as the favorite for the Hambletonian. For about two hours anyway.

Ken Warkentin, the consensus Hambo favorite until his disappointing 3rd in his last race, had the outside 10 post in an open trot later on the card (he’d missed the Dancer eliminations with a cough). Del Miller did a great job of leaving and establishing position on the rail in 5th. As they approached the final turn, he eased him out first over, moved him up to second, and took a brief pause on the rail. Then when Miller tipped him out, he motored home powerfully for a 2 length win. Ken Warkentin, the track announcer, called this race, and according to the chatter on HRTV, it was the first time he’d done so when his namesake was running. The Meadowlands has 2 or 3 race callers, and they seem to switch back and forth between calling races and doing pre-race analysis. As Ken Warkentin (the horse) approached the finish, Ken Warkentin (the man) called “The real Ken Warkentin shows up tonight, and he looks better than me!” Then he almost fell out of the booth when he announced the time of “1:52.3! A shocking mile there!”

Tonight’s Meadowlands Pace is a showdown between Rocknroll Hanover, the horse widely considered the top 3 yo pacer, and Stonebridge Regal, who upset him in the elminations last week. Rocknroll Hanover was parked to a :53 .2 half while the eventual winner was able to establish rail position second and force his rival to the top. Last month, Rocknroll Hanover beat Stonebridge Regal by a length in the North America Cup at Woodbine, so the rivalry is on. It’s a million dollar purse and a big night at the track - last year over 22,000 people turned out.

Freedom to Choose

- The Choose Six debuts at Delaware Park on Sunday, and Dick Jerardi likes the options it will give bettors.

The pool grows all day - until there are five races left. If you get knocked out early, you can get back in. If a few favorites lose early in the bet, you may decide to get involved because there is "dead money" already in the pool.
……
Handicapping is the grunt work of horse racing. There really are no shortcuts. Betting is art. Once you know what you like, you must decide where and how to invest your money. The key to successful wagering is to know your options. The Choose Six is the ultimate option. [Phila Daily News]

You may recall that the concept originated with former Prairie Meadows track announcer Ken Miller, who was then fired by the track over a dispute over ownership of the idea. They made up though, and the track and Miller, who is back as a race analyst, will share in the royalties.

Miller conceived of the bet a few years ago while in Las Vegas and looking at football parlays at the Mirage casino. In football, gamblers can pick the games they're most confident in. It struck him that horse racing fans might like the same option.

"It gives the fan the thought that they finally have the edge over the track," Miller said. "I think tracks are missing out on a lot of people who don't have an unlimited budget but want to play a multiple-race bet."

One knock on the choose 6 is that if fans concentrate on races with small fields and a standout, the payouts could be small.

"Some say that they'll all pick favorites; I say go at it," Asher said. "It's hard to pick six winners on any day, regardless of the odds." [Des Moines Register]

- On the racetrack at DelPark Saturday, there’s the G2 Delaware Oaks, in which Sis City will try and rebound from her disappointing 4th at 3-5 in the Kentucky Oaks. She may vie for favoritism with Acorn winner Round Pond, making her first start for John Servis since that Grade 1 race.

"The horses that have come back out of that race and won showed that it was a very good race," Servis said. "And the way she did it. She stalked a very fast pace. You've got three very good fillies battling through the lane and she ran around like them they were in the way."

Servis has big plans for Round Pond, but horse-racing plans are never set in stone. Too much can go wrong. If everything goes right, the rest of Round Pond's year will consist of the DelOaks, the Alabama at Saratoga, the Cotillion at Philadelphia Park and the Breeders' Cup Distaff at Belmont Park. [Phila Daily News]

It’s not just a two horse race with Dance Away Capote and G2 Hollywood BC Oaks winner Brooke’s Halo entered as well.

Since ‘choice’ is the theme of the weekend at DelPark, I choose to watch this race, and bet instead on the $300,000 Robert G. Dick Memorial for the distaff set at 11 furlongs. Todd Pletcher has Honey Ryder, the morning line favorite. She won two graded races at Gulfstream this past winter, but her only effort in the last 3 1/2 months was a disappointing 5th as the favorite in the Sheepshead Bay at Belmont at this distance.

"She's at her best from a mile and three-eighths to a mile and a half," Pletcher said, noting that Honey Ryder won back-to-back graded stakes at Gulfstream Park at those distances in March and April. "But at Belmont," he noted, "that's a two-turn race, and she seems to do better around three turns." [DRF]

I’ve never heard the “prefers 3 turns” excuse before. In any event and despite the fact that Edgar Prado rides, I’m taking a shot against her. Mike Watchmaker in the Form makes a compelling case for the stretch-out possibilities of Natalie Beach, discussing her last two races, wins at shorter distances at Belmont.

The first of those was an optional-claiming event, in which Natalie Beach made a sustained run - she ran her second quarter-mile in approximately 23 seconds, her third quarter in 23.20, and fourth and final quarter in around 23.60 - to get up over a next-out winner. Last time out, Natalie Beach finished powerfully to win the restricted England's Legend Stakes. She went her fourth quarter in that 1 1/8-mile race in 22.80, and her final eighth in approximately 11.60, meaning she went her last three-eighths in an excellent 34.40. [DRF sub. Only]

Still, she’s never been more than a mile and an eighth. So, how about a stab with 15-1 ML Joyful Chaos? This always-trying 4 yo by Rahy has been this distance, running a closing 3rd and missing by just a length in an allowance at Belmont last fall. She seems to have really come on for the hot Christophe Clement barn as a 4 yo, with two easy allowance wins at shorter distances in her two starts. Now she steps up from N2X allowance company and gets tested for class. But note that Clement also trains Relaxed Gesture, one of the choices for Saturday’s Bowling Green at Belmont. Relaxed Gesture was similarly moving up from that same level (though she admittedly was graded stakes placed previously in Ireland) to the Grade 1 Manhattan when she ran a close second at 13.80 to 1, so Clement is capable of moving these up. Joyful Chaos doesn’t have to improve nearly as much as that to compete in the Dick.

- The Bowling Green is a wide open affair, but you certainly can’t overlook anything from Tom Albertrani these days – he’s hitting at 41% at this meet! I’ve mentioned his distance loving Salic Law before, and he tries graded stakes company for the first time after his impressive win over Dreadnaught, also entered here. Salic Law has overcome his prior problems with the starting gate.

"I couldn't believe what I was seeing,” Albertrani said…. "He trained like a really nice horse and showed lots of talent. He'd get to the gate and waste all his energy. He was a real problem. He's still not perfect but he's obviously a lot better. Now he puts most of his energy toward running and he's a lot more focused." [Newsday]

- Scrappy T is out of the Leonard Richards on Sunday. "He's about 90%, which is not where we want to go," Bailes said. "It's nothing major. It was enough to throw up the caution flag. We want him right before we run him." [Bloodhorse]

- The G3 Hollywood Juvenile Championship tomorrow drew just a field of five, and it seems like a two horse race between Baffert’s $1.9 million 2 yo What A Song (Songandaprayer) and Bashert (Tiger Ridge), as they both come off maiden wins with Beyers of 93 and 99 respectively. But before you put your money down on one or both, heed the words of the Form’s Brad Free:

In a typical spring meet at Hollywood, only a handful of 2-year-olds earn Beyer Figures of 90 or higher . Some of those - including Came Home, Tempera, Golden Ballet, and Squirtle Squirt - develop into important Grade 1 winners.

Over the past six summers, however, more than three-quarters of the 2-year-olds that soared past a 90 Beyer went backward in their next start. And not by just a little bit - 22 of the 29 that regressed did so by an average of about 10 points.

The regression factor among 2-year-olds stretches across the country. Since the start of the 2000 spring meet at Belmont Park, 21 of 23 2-year-olds that earned Beyer Figures of 90 or more went backward next out. [Daily Racing Form]

Trotting Break

- Tonight is the Stanley Dancer Trot at the Meadowlands, the last major prep for the Hambletonian, the elimination heats for which are scheduled for July 30. Classic Photo is the 9-5 morning line favorite, and deservingly so. With 2 yo champ Ken Warkentin having missed the elims with a cough (he’ll run in the 10th race tonight), Classic Photo can establish himself as the Hambo favorite with a win tonight. This colt has developed after a lackluster 2 yo season in which he won only once. But now he’s won 3 in a row, including 2 sub-1:54 miles, and he cruised to an easy win in his elimination heat last week.

I’m going to take a shot with Diesel Don. He came on late last year, powering to 4 easy wins in a row to end the season, culminating in a rich stakes win over Classic Photo here at the Meadowlands. This year he had two impressive qualifiers leading up to his 3 yo pari-mutuel debut on June 30. In that race, he lagged further behind than usual, but finished extremely strong into a fast closing half, missing by 2 1/4 to an already sharp Classic Photo (coming off a stakes win at Woodbine in 1:53 1/5). In his elimination last week, he was bet down to 9-5, and sat 4th behind a dawdling pace; in fact Ken Warkentin (the track announcer) called that leader New York Yank “waltzed” to the half in an extremely slow :59 1/5.

If you watch HRTV tonight as they cover the race, when they show the stretch of the eliminations, check out Diesel Don’s driver John Campbell. With no realistic chance of closing against those fractions, and knowing that he needed only to finish 3rd to make the final, Campbell made absolutely no effort to ask his colt. He merely cruised through the stretch, and even as Ro Lo, the eventual winner via DQ, passed him in deep stretch, you can see that Campbell, assured at that point of making the final, made absolutely no attempt whatsoever to repel him. He was kinda like a guy in a car casually waving at an acquaintance going by in the next lane. Tonight he has the 8 post and will likely need some pace up front to have a shot, but there seems to be enough speed in the race for that to happen, and this time he’ll be all out with a $350,000 purse on the line in his 3rd start of the year. I’ll use him underneath Classic Photo in exactas as well.

- Classic Photo’s driver Ron Pierce, who has won more than 5,400 races and topped $9 million in purses and was inducted into the Hall of Fame just a couple of weeks ago, is dabbling in the thoroughbred game as well as an owner. His Blackout O Three, a NJ-bred son of Louis Quartorze whom he purchased for $20,000, made his debut at Monmouth yesterday, He ran last in a field of 12 at odds of 71-1. Guess he should keep his day night job for now. [Newark Star Ledger]

- Big shakeup at NYRA as racing secretary Mike Lakow and chief examining veterinarian Dr. Celeste Kunz were among four people fired or “advised to” reture.

The firing of Dr. Kunz, among the nation's most prominent racing veterinarians, was a shock. She was promoted to the position in early 2003, the first woman to head NYRA's veterinary team…

Kunz said her dismissal came without warning. "I thought I was going in for a raise after what we've accomplished in the last six months," she said. [Newsday]

- Belmont fact: At the meet favorites are now 186 for 476, 39% after starting out an ugly 8 for 45, 17%. [NY Daily News]

Thursday Night Notes - July 13

- Steve Asmussen has taken the openers at Belmont the last two days, both of them with first-time, NY-bred 2 yo’s. Wednesday’s was a 1.15 to 1 shot, No Reason, a filly by Precise End; but Thursday’s was the 6.40 to 1 4th choice, which may have led some to believe that Raw Cat was a raw deal. This 2 yo gelding is by Tactical Cat, out of Raw Beauty, is just as unoriginally named as my partnership’s Highland Cat. You see a first-timer by a guy like Asmussen and you think 'dead on the board.' I do anyway. Some smarter people in this case thought "overlay." Nick Kling in the Troy Record wrote the other day about Asmussen with an eye towards the upcoming Saratoga meet, noting that one does need to find value with winners like Raw Cat in order to profit with this barn.

During [the past 4 years at Saratoga], Asmussen has started 127 thoroughbreds, according to Daily Racing Form. The South Dakota-born resident of Texas has won with 25, for a twenty percent success rate. However, if you are looking to make a profitable bet at Saratoga, you need to look closely at whether an Asmussen animal offers wager value. Every $2.00 bet on each of his Spa starters has returned an anemic $1.21. That compares with his national average of $1.60.
......
Asmussen has a well-deserved reputation as a developer of juveniles. His nationwide return on investment (ROI) with 2-year-olds is close to the breakeven $2.00 figure. But while his winning percentage at Saratoga is identical with what he does elsewhere, Asmussen's Spa ROI plummets to $1.29. In short, racing fans tend to over bet horses from the Asmussen Stable. That doesn't mean they don't have a fair chance to win, just that bettors need to filter out as many suspect underlays as possible. [Troy Record]

Kling discusses several other trainers in the article as well.

Edgar Prado had 4 winners Wednesday and two more today, one of them another winner for red-hot Thomas Albertrani. While the field sizes have picked up a bit (at least before scratches), the quality, as usual, declines as Saratoga approaches. No less than 7 of today’s 9 races had favorites of 6-5 or less, five of those less than even money, ugh! The 4th was another 2 yo NY-bred race, and trainer Edward Allard shipped in Hold Your Patience, a first timer with good drills at Philly Park. He was hammered to 4-5, but had to fight to hold off a 13-1 shot with the rejuvenated Diane Nelson to get the win. Hold Your Patience is by Tale of the Cat, out of a Hold Your Peace mare who’s a full sister to G1 Arlington-Wash Futurity winner and current sire Meadowlake.

On Wednesday, a thunderstorm turned the track to mud and wiped out 3 of the 4 turf races. There were 25 scratches from 84 entries; two of the races had no show betting. That same storm system literally followed me down the Garden State Parkway to Monmouth. I knew there were supposed to be a couple of storms possible for the morning, but I wasn’t prepared for a giant storm heading due south instead of going out to sea as usual. It was a Saratoga -type soaker, and I sat in the car fretting over a hated sloppy track and off the turf day. It was so bad that first race post was pushed back by 20 minutes.

I think my extreme aversion to sloppy tracks is based largely on my experience in New York, where the scratches are so plentiful. I’ve always found that in many other jurisdictions, the races go on with close to full fields, even on the off-the-turfers, and this was the case at Monmouth. So it was fine; I adjusted. After all, you go with the track you have, not the one you might want. Still, it just throws off my game, which isn’t all that great to start with. I did a lot of board watching, looking for some help as to who likes the going. On a weekday in New Jersey, you have to wait for the last few minutes before there's any significant money in the win pools. The only live race I was close on was the 6th, in which I went with the late money going on the nose of the 10, Avie's d'Light, making his first start for Peter Walden, hitting at 33% first time in his care. He ran well, but couldn't quite catch the winner, finishing second by 1 1/2. However, after the live races, I hit a cold exacta in the 4th at Hollywood (don’t you just love simulcasting!?), and had the $27.60 combo enough times to give me a small profit on the day.

Over 6,000 at Monmouth on what was ultimately a very pleasant day; that’s at least 50% more than on a comparable weekday at Belmont. Very little - amazingly so - has seemed to change in the 25 years or so I’ve been visiting the place, and there’s no reason for anything to. It’s just a beautiful little track, with no offense meant by the “little.” It’s plenty big enough (except maybe on Haskell and Father’s Days) but also has the intimacy of much smaller places I’ve been to. There's a nice grassy backyard area that nobody seems to utilize, preferring the picnic areas set up near the track in upper stretch. These allow people to do the picnic table thing, but be right on top of the horses as they come down the top of the stretch, whereas at Belmont and Saratoga, many people partying in the backyard are completely disconnected from the races.

And man, Monmouth has a lot of simulcasting! I must admit to taking a brief break for dinner, and then plunging right back for some early evening races from around the country. I suppose that qualifies me for degenerate status, eh?

- I don’t usually post quotes from a Jockey Guild official in an approving way, but Albert Fiss’s reaction to the shocking news that paralyzed Charles Town jockey Shannon Campbell has just $50,000 of catastrophic insurance coverage says it all: "You would think that West Virginia of all places, with what happened last year and the money coming from slots, would do the morally right thing.” But he also conceded that the policy the Guild failed to renew would have covered Campbell if it had been in place last week. [Daily Racing Form]

- Two horses that are just possibilities for the Haskell are Surf Cat and Roman Ruler. Surf Cat’s trainer is also considering the Pacific Classic at Del Mar, which is for older horses. In the 14-year history of the Pacific Classic, Del Mar's richest race, 3-year-olds have won the race three times: Best Pal in 1991, General Challenge in 1999, and Came Home in 2002. [DRF]

Bob Baffert is deciding between the Haskell and the Jim Dandy at Saratoga.

"I'd prefer the Haskell but I'm going to keep an eye on the weather....Wet tracks aren't good for his feet."
....
Baffert did say that the Grade I Travers Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 27 is out of the question for Roman Ruler, but he'll likely race on the Travers undercard in the seven-furlong Grade I King's Bishop Stakes, in which he'll face the undefeated Lost in the Fog. [NY Daily News]

Wow, that would be pretty cool!

Slow Week, but Not Dead Yet

- Relatively light posting continues this week. Pretty slow time anyway and I’m a little burnt. Worse yet, with many state legislatures out of session for the summer, there’s little in the way of juicy slots and political stuff. However, we do have the big races at Delaware this weekend – Sunday’s Leonard Richards attracted the most interesting 3 yo race yet of the post-Triple Crown season, at least for those who actually participated in the series. Preakness runner-up Scrappy T is the 9-5 morning line favorite, and faces 6, including Sun King, a bit surprisingly to me as I haven’t heard much about the horse that was ultimately perhaps the most disappointing of all the early spring Derby contenders. High Limit returns for Frankel off of a series of fine workouts, and gets Edgar Prado – recall that Scrappy T’s rider Ramon Dominguez was High Limit’s rider prior to the Preakness and seemed to have a falling out with Frankel. We’ll see if Dominguez goes to the big windmill windup if High Limit pulls alongside! Baffert reappears with the overraced Sort It Out - oh man, and Golden Man, who was excluded from the full Preakness field due to insufficient earnings, will make an appearance as well.

Also Sunday is the $1 million, but just Grade 2 Delaware Handicap for fillies and mares; Iso Piu Bella and Two Trail Sioux head a big field of 12.

- Up in Canada, it’s the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown - the Prince of Wales Stakes at Fort Erie, and Queen’s Plate winner Wild Desert and fifth place finisher Ablo are the only horses still standing after that race. The headline in the Form says Only Five Foes Willing to Face Wild Desert, but maybe it should say “able” instead. In fact, you may recall that the Plate favorite Dance With Ravens is out for the year with a bone chip.

The unusually tiring, deep, dry and cuppy track at Woodbine the day of the Queen's Plate has taken its toll. There are few survivors left. The race had front runners staggering, and one of the slowest running times in Plate history, when Wild Desert ran the 1 1/4 miles in 2:07 1/5.

“The track was a disaster,'' said Dan Borislow, majority owner of Wild Desert. “I don't think it's happenstance that a lot of those horses didn't make it back to this race [Prince of Wales.] These horses were lugging at the end. It was like a cornfield. It [the dirt] was up to their knees.''

It sounds like Wild Desert could be pretty tired too.

Wild Desert tuned up for the race by working five furlongs on 1:07 4/5 at the Saratoga training track on Tuesday. Borislow wasn't impressed. “I could run faster than my horse,'' he said. “That's slower than a two-minute lick. Maybe the wrong exercise rider was on the horse.”

“You're always worried,'' he said. “But this horse does like to run fresh. He doesn't need a lot of work. If it was one of my other horses, I'd be up there inspecting the horse myself.'' [Toronto Globe and Mail]

- It’s bad enough making a poor selection in a race, worse when you publish it beforehand on the internet for scores of readers, and now the Form’s Dick Jerardi is rubbing it in.

Can somebody please explain how Don't Get Mad was 6-5 [in the Swaps]? This overhyped colt has never hit 100 on the Beyer scale. His running style so eliminated him from contention that Gary Stevens had to take him out of his game and ask for run far earlier than he wanted, just hoping the colt would get into the race. It never happened, and the horse finished fifth.

The winner, Surf Cat, did not offer much value at 8-5. Don't Get Mad offered none at any price. He had no chance on the Beyers and no chance on the speed-favoring track. I did not really know who was going to win the race, although many sharpies obviously did. I did know who was not going to win it. [Daily Racing Form, sub only]

OK, OK, so I’m an idiot I guess. Jerardi is part of the Beyer fig-making crew, so I guess he puts a lot more credence in them than in watching a horse make a move as devastating as the one Don’t Get Mad had made in his previous race. I won’t be betting on him anytime soon in any race outside of Louisville, Kentucky, that's for sure. Jerardi also writes, in hindsight, of how Reputation-Induced Phenomenon (RIP) helped make Lava Man 6-1 and Limehouse 6-5 despite having earned the same fig in their prior races. Again, I fell victim to visual inspection; I’d watched a tape of the Californian before last weekend and saw Lava Man and Anziyan Royalty stagger to the finish with no one making a single move behind them, and I figured they weren’t really that good. Lava Man’s 120 Beyer in the Gold Cup indicates otherwise, but regardless of whether he backs that up, which I am personally still skeptical of (Jerardi notes: The speed-favoring nature of the track certainly helped carry Lava Man), don’t expect to see him in the Breeders Cup. He’s not nominated (nor, by the way, is Surf Cat), and in Lava Man's case, it would cost a prohibitive $800,000 for him to run in the $4-million Breeders' Cup Classic on Oct. 29 at Belmont Park.

The winner's share of the Classic is more than $2 million, but reaping less than 4-1 on an investment is not any horse owner's idea of a legitimate risk.

Should Lava Man continue to excel — his next start probably will be the $1-million Pacific Classic on Aug. 21 at Del Mar — racing could be in the embarrassing position of not having one of its stars around for its showcase day.

"The supplement is a lot of money for any horse," said Doug O'Neill, who trains Lava Man, "but this horse is a gelding, and anything he does on the track doesn't translate into added value as a stallion. That makes it even harder to think about supplementing for the Breeders' Cup." [LA Times]

- I’ll be back later to catch up on the last couple of days at Belmont and my day at Monmouth yesterday. Plus, I have a big tout for tomorrow night’s Stanley Dancer Trot at the Meadowlands. Last week on this blog, I had Dancer killed off, referring to the race as the Stanley Dancer Memorial Trot; in fact, the legendary horseman is still alive, but is unfortunately presently ailing. This reminds me of something I once heard the Mets’ broadcaster Ralph Kiner say. Kiner is an original Mets announcer, which means he’s been at it since 1962. He looks older than Senator Byrd now, and he’s been difficult to listen to since suffering Bell’s Palsy a few years ago. But even in his prime, he was always famous for his mis-statements – "Kinerisms" – and I was listening in the mid-70s one day when he relayed a quote and attributed it to “the late Jack Brickhouse.” He paused, realizing that Brickhouse, the long time Cubs and Bears' announcer, was still amongst the living and added, “Well, he’s not dead yet!” In fact, Brickhouse didn’t pass away until 1998. Stanley Dancer is 78 and won the Hambletonian, for which the trot named after him is the final prep, four times as the trainer and driver, and a 5th time just as the pilot.

Monmouth Day

- Paul Moran of Newsday is filled with his usual sunny optimism, today complaining about Delaware’s Choose Six wager, though this time he seems to have a valid point:

The wager is unlikely to attract much attention from established pick-six players because odds are meaningless. The pool is divided equally among the winners. The player selecting six short-priced winners receives the same payout as one who has used a longshot or two in the sequence. The pick-six, however, is a popular bet only in California and New York, both of which offer the bet in multiples of $2, and it is not unlikely that such a wager, with $1 base, may boost the handle at track like Delaware. The "choose six" will likely have no impact on established major pick-six pools.

That was my impression when I was trying to wrap my mind around this concept - that there really is no incentive to try and dope out clever longshot winners, so I imagine the idea of “value” is meaningless here? We’ll have to see how (if?) this plays out.

- The developing drug scandal in Kentucky in which regulators are accused of ignoring drug positives hits the New York Times today. Bill Finley has the story, while his colleague Joe Drape is relegated to covering some poker tournament, which I imagine he’s about as thrilled about as I would be. How poker has been accepted into the “sports” category is puzzling to me, though I suppose it’s along the lines of chess....or spelling bees. Athletic competitions these are not, so I don’t see why this stuff should be in the sports pages anymore than lottery results or the closing prices on the stock markets. Yes, they are "games," but if all things in the world that fall into that category was in the sports section, then everything from politics to business to war would be crammed onto the back page.

- Horrible news in the Form this morning. Shannon Campbell, a 34 year old apprentice jockey, is paralyzed from the waist down after she was thrown from a 35-1 shot in a $5000 maiden claiming race at Charles Town on Saturday night.

Campbell is married and has an 8-year-old daughter.... Campbell became a jockey to fulfill a lifetime dream of race riding after 15 years of exercising horses, principally at tracks in West Virginia... Campbell recently resumed riding after recovering from a broken collarbone. [Daily Racing Form]

It was in West Virginia that Gary Birzer was similarly paralyzed in a spill, leading to the realization that the Jockey Guild had failed to renew its insurance coverage for such incidents, and the jockey colony at Charles Town was scheduled to meet with representatives of the Jockeys' Guild on Wednesday to discuss how to put together a fund to pay for Campbell's medical bills. Despite moves in other states to increase coverage to $1 million, Charles Town's policy is still set at $100,000, oh man. How much of all that slots money flowing into the state would it take to do the right thing?

And Egg Head, the 3yo who gave Lost in the Fog a scare on Belmont stakes day, has been euthanized after succumbing to a case of founder. [DRF]

- Rocknroll Hanover drew the 5 post and was installed as the 5-2 favorite for Saturday’s $1million Meadowlands Pace; this despite his defeat in the eliminations last weekend by Stonebridge Regal, who will start inside of the favorite in the 3 hole. Rocknroll Hanover’s owner Jeffrey Snyder actually has three entrants in the race, but there will not be a betting entry: A state racing commission rule allows for separate betting interests, despite common ownership, when the purse value is greater than $500,000. [Newark Star-Ledger]

- Totally secure in the knowledge that no one that I work with reads this blog, I can tell you that my urgent personal day today will be devoted to a trip to Monmouth, my 1st or 2nd favorite track outside of New York. I’ll be back with the happy recap later.

And That's the Truth!

- Well, I guess Karl Rove's lawyer wasn't lying when he said that the president's top advisor never mentioned CIA agent Valerie Plame "by name" to Time reporter Matt Cooper. Instead, Cooper's emails reveal that Rove referred only to [Ambassador Joseph] "wilson's wife, who apparently works at the agency on wmd [weapons of mass destruction] issues who authorized the trip." [MSNBC] And who said Republicans lie? This is quite commendable, even as we learn about more and more corruption in the grand GOP.

So, in tribute to this truth-telling, I promise not to mention anyone by name in this post; see if you can figure it out.

Delaware Park will be the focus of the sport this weekend, with three stakes races each day; and some particularly rich races which will attract talent from around the country. Saturday's feature is the $500,000 Delaware Oaks for 3yo fillies. Sis City will make her return after her disappointing 4th as the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks back on the first Friday in May. She is still being trained by the guy who used to train Ghostzapper, substituting for the New York based trainer who also trains Saint Liam but is finishing up a 60-day suspension while his assistant trainer burns up the Belmont meet. Sis City has been installed as the 5-2 morning line second choice behind 9-5 Round Pond, trained by the guy who used to train Smarty Jones and whose name rhymes with how I feel whenever I ride the NYC subway these day (besides "crammed"). This is a Grade 2 race, but seems like more of a Grade 1 than some Grade 1's we've seen recently. Also Saturday is the ungraded, but $300,000 Robert G. (heh heh, he said) Dick Memorial BC at 11 furlongs on the turf, headed by 2005 double-graded winner Honey Ryder, coming off a disappointing 5th in the Sheepshead Bay at Belmont in May. He's trained by Tracy Pletcher's husband.

Sunday is the $1 million Delaware Handicap for fillies and mares for which Ashado is a possibility, as well as the $300,000 Leonard Richards Stakes, expected to feature Scrappy T in his first try since trying to take down that horse that won the Preakness and Belmont.



This looks like a lot of the horses I've been betting lately. But it's actually part of an art project called Sawhorse Mania being dispayed in Bellevue, Kentucky, as part of the Bellevue Streetscape Project. To make the construction a bit more bearable, the figures will direct people to businesses and homes that remain open during the renovations. Well, at least she has straight back legs. [ChallengerNKY.com]

Leave Me Alone!

- By far the most exciting race of Calder’s Summit of Speed program – in fact, the only photo finish of the day - was in the Azalea BC at 6f for 3yo fillies. An excellent hunch bet for any other of you with teenage kids, Leave Me Alone took the lead, quickly dispensing of second choice Partners Due, surrendered it to favorite Hide and Chic, who slipped up the rail on the turn, and battled back to prevail by a nose in a thrilling stretch drive.

"She had to work hard," Desormeaux said. "They turned on the pressure at the half and she dragged me back to the front. I was trying to stay off the fence because I thought is was a little softer down there, but then again I might have been wrong because I was almost beaten by a horse that stayed on the fence the whole way.

"Needless to say, I needed every ounce of blood she had the last three-sixteenths of a mile, and she gave it to me." [Thoroughbred Times]

Next stop for Leave Me Alone may be the Grade 1 Test at Saratoga. She’s by dead California stallion Bold Badgett, who's a full brother to multiple graded stakes winner (including the Hollywood Gold Cup) and fellow dead stallion Desert Wine; and a half to living stallion Menifee.

Hide and Chic, who won a stakes at Calder last month, finished nearly 10 lengths in front of the rest of the field. She’s by Seeking the Gold, out of Saoirse, and thus a half-sister to 2 yo Saoirse Cat, who I posted about breaking her maiden for Mott the other day at Belmont. She has an interesting inbreeding pattern, 2x5 to Mr. Prospector, and 4x5 to Tom Fool.

Madcap Escapade bounced back to take the Princess Rooney, putting her over a million in earnings. No disgrace at all for previously undefeated Happy Ticket to run a clear second.

- More on Afleet Alex’s workout the other day:

"It was an excellent work," Rose said. "He did everything on his own."

Afleet Alex clipped off fractions of 25 2/5, 49 2/5, 1:00 1/5 and galloped out six furlongs in 1:14.

"That was exactly what we were looking for," said trainer Tim Ritchey. "The horse looks great." [Asbury Park Press]

The Haskell at Monmouth is Sunday, August 7th.

Lava Man

- Lava Man's 8 3/4 length margin of victory in the Hollywood Gold Cup was the widest winning margin in the 66-year history of the race. Though trainer Doug O'Neill conceded that "It was a lackluster field," [DRF] he got the mile and a quarter in 1:59.63 and earned a Beyer of 120, wow! 120? That puts him in exclusive company this year - Ghostzapper's 122 in the Met Mile, Bellamy Road's 120 in the Wood, Commentator 121... and Lava Man 120? It seems like those 120's are getting easier to get, like in the Olympics when one skating pair gets all 5.9's and then everyone starts getting them. I don't know if I'm buying this horse as of yet, are you? Mike Watchmaker in the Form (sub. Only) notes that he adds some depth to the handicap division, as does Surf Cat to the 3 year olds:

Bellamy Road is capable of having a big fall at his home base of New York, but he still does not have a published workout since the Derby.

There is less reason for optimism for other prominent names in the 3-year-old male division. Declan's Moon, last year's champion 2-year-old, is out until at least October. Kentucky Derby upsetter Giacomo is through for the year following surgery after his loss in the Belmont. Derby runner-up Closing Argument has no published workouts since May 16, while Florida Derby winner High Fly has no works since the Preakness. The fast Peter Pan Stakes winner, Oratory, is out for the year at least, if not for good, after recently undergoing surgery.

- Delaware Park is introducing the Choose Six next week in which bettors can pick 6 in whichever races they would like. I can't grasp now how this bet would possibly work as far as payoffs or strategies go. Payoffs will be divided evenly among all winners--the return is the same for all combinations--at the conclusion of the day's races. The pool continues to grow if players buy back in. There's also talk of a Group Bet, which will group horses in each race for wagering purposes in an attempt to lure novices. [Bloodhorse]

Notes - July 11

According to the Miami Herald,

Lost in the Fog wasn't the spunkiest of specimens inside the saddling paddock when jockey Russell Baze was hoisted into the saddle and the two made their way toward the track. You could even say the colt many consider to be the fastest 3-year-old sprinter in the country looked a bit on the sluggish side.

Woe to anyone who based their handicapping decision on his appearance, as the unbeaten sensation missed the track record for 6 furlongs by 2/5ths in a facile victory at 1-20. Next is the G1 King’s Bishop for 3 yo’s at Saratoga on Travers Day.

"I'm glad he'll have the seven weeks between races," Gilchrist said. "I think I'll get him into Saratoga a couple of weeks ahead of the race. I've never been to Saratoga, and I've heard all the stuff about the track, it being the 'Graveyard of Champions' and all that, and I'd like to work him at least once over the track before he runs there." [LA Times]

- Got home from an early trip to the beach yesterday and the first race I saw on TV was the 6th from Churchill, a 2yo filly race with several well-bet and well-bred first time starters. The Churchill meet was really gathering momentum in these last couple of weeks in terms of both quality and quantity. The top three betting choices in this race were first-timers, but one of them was being bet the way I like to see, on the nose in the win pool. Didn’t bet this one, but watched as Rare Elegance, the 4-1 second choice took the lead shortly out of the gate and was never headed thereafter. From the Steve Asmussen barn, she’s by Forestry out of an unraced Gilded Time half sister to Storm Song, the 1996 BC Juvenile Filly and Eclipse champ (who doesn’t seem to have produced much herself as of yet).

Shortly afterwards, I was handicapping the G3 Lexington at Belmont. The presence of a sharp British invader, Im Spartacus, made it a daunting betting affair, but I noticed Woodlander (also coincidentally by Forestry) being bet on the nose the same way; and he'd shown improving form for the sizzling Tom Albertrani stable, so I took note. At 4-1, I put him on top, took a stand against the 5-2 second choice Im Spartacus, and scored a $68 exacta with runner-up Reel Legend. The latter goes for Jimmy Jerkens, so it was a hot trainer exacta, and gratifying personally to get back on track after a couple of dismal weeks. Woodlander is from a Kingmambo mare, and his second dam is a half to multiple G1 winner Twilight Agenda. I certainly don’t mean to suggest that horses bet in this way always win, but I find that they are consistently “live.” In fairness, I’ll have to remember to write about some that run like Don't Get Mad did on Saturday!

Interesting comments from the connections of Im Spartacus, who must have thought they hit the jackpot with his preferred soft course when the rains came late last week.

"It rained on Thursday and we walked the track when we got there. It was good ground and there was no jar, but it became very warm and it was like a hairdryer on the track, so by the time of the race it was like concrete."
……
"His best form is with cut in the ground, but if it had been English good ground it would have been fine. But that ground was like running on the M25." [GG-Racing]

Don’t know what the M25 is, but I guess it’s pretty hard. The official turf condition was "good," but I guess it's all relative when it comes to Euroean invaders.

- Trainer Leo O'Brien scored with longshot Dinah's Pearls on the grassy 5th at Belmont yesterday. It was only his 3rd win this year, but his second in the last couple of weeks here. He is also 14 out of 24 in the money at this Belmont meet. O'Brien historically does well at Saratoga, particularly on the grass, so keep an eye out for him next month.