98.6

Mike Welsch was pretty impressed over the workout by Lookin At Lucky on Wednesday. "A very good work; maybe not the blowaway type.....like Street Sense or Barbaro, but just what you'd like to see," he explained on his video report. The Daily Racing Form's clocker guy was particularly taken with a 11.63 split from the three-eighths to the quarter pole while breezing about four or five paths out from the rail. [DRF]

Strictly on class, Baffert's colt is the clear favorite here. He's won five graded stakes (three Grade 1's and two Grade 2's), and was clearly best when narrowly beaten in the Juvenile (some six lengths in front of Eskendereya). He also has the perfect running style for the Derby - won't be battling for the lead, but enough tactical speed to keep well in range and, perhaps, out of traffic. And, as we know, his trainer holds a distinct class edge himself over the Toddster....at least when it comes to this particular race.

So what's the deal here? Oh yeah, Pletcher's colt has those Beyer numbers on the page, y'know the ones from the perfect trips he had against middling competition at Gulfstream and Aqueduct.

OK, I acknowledge that he's dominated with the kind of ease which has some thinking greatness here. And he did easily overcome the only (slight) adversity he faced in those two races, quickly compensating for a slightly slow start from an unfavorable post in Florida. The thought does admittedly occur to me that, with a clean trip, he gallops off from the field the way he has before at a distance at which he figures to flourish on paper. Nonetheless, there's certainly no guarantee of an uneventful journey - in fact, the odds are against it - and I'm unwavering in my belief that this is a routine bet against a favorite who is likely to face hurdles and challenges that he hasn't yet before.

Looking At Lucky is a son of the great stallion Smart Strike; and I made some good money on his half-brother Kensei in the Dwyer and Jim Dandy last year. His dam, by Belong to Me, is a half-sister to the stakes winning Grand Charmer, who is a granddam of Pletcher's champion multiple graded stakes winner Wait A While. (The second dam of Lookin At Lucky is the third dam of Wait A While.)

- Noble's Promise worked on Tuesday, and despite the fact that it's hard to envision a son of Cuvee out of a Clever Trick mare winning the Kentucky Derby, I remain intrigued by this one after his excuse-filled fifth in the Arkansas Derby. I mentioned the distance influences in his pedigree in this post; and that final prep was a complete and total throwout in my opinion. He was basically done after a bad start which took him way out of his game, dead last passing the stands for the first time; and then steadied sharply trying to move up along the rail around the first turn. He also suffered those minor injuries, as well as a lung infection which trainer Ken McPeek attributed to allergies (and I know how he feels). So it was actually pretty impressive in my view that Noble's Promise actually got himself into purse contention by the time they entered the stretch.

McPeek now says the horse is 60/40 for the race after his bullet five furlongs in 59.84 seconds.

"That was a fantastic work he put in. That's a Grade I filly [Beautician] he was working against, and he whipped her," McPeek said. "He's just so talented, but we're still not fully committed to the race.

"We've still got another hoop or two to jump through. He needs to eat well tonight. He's been pounding the feed tub up till now. The hope is that he doesn't regress off the work he put in, but the way he worked we think he's moving forward." [IdahoStatesman.com]

Welsch noted that the horse got tired late, finishing up in nearly 13 seconds; but that was after fractions of 11.72, 23:44, and 34.76 seconds for the opening three-eighths. And he noted that jockey Willie Martinez was sitting "pretty chilly" as he pulled away from his stablemate. So I still have an eye on this guy as a candidate to enhance the exotics.

- A note and a reference to the title of this post: I personally don't have much of a case of Derby Fever here as you've probably noticed from the infrequent posting on the subject. I suppose I could go off on the way the game has changed, with the horses starting less often and therefore not developing the kind of depth of form, character and rivalries of years past. Amazing how, just in the five + years I've been doing this blog, those "rules" we used to depend on have become virtually obsolete. There's no hand-wringing over the four or five weeks that will have passed since the last prep for many of the horses, including the favorite, before they get to the Derby gate; nor the mere two preps that Lookin At Lucky has had this year. It's the new way, and I don't particularly care for it.

But it's really just me. I've never really gotten back into the swing of things after what was a rough time for me personally around the holidays and into the new year. And racing was never a 12 month a year endeavor for me until I started this site, and I'm long overdue for a significant break. So, when I do have the chance to post (and I'm on the road for a couple of days with my daughter as she decides among the ten colleges she got accepted to....way to go, K!), I'll muddle through the Derby and the Triple Crown the best I can, but will be focused mostly on the off-track nonsense for the foreseeable future, with my usual forays off-topic especially with the NY gubernatorial and legislative elections coming up this fall. For your intensive wall-to-wall, minute-by-minute racing news and coverage, please check out the excellent Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance site at http://tbablogs.com/index.php?rss=blogs, where you can find the enthusiastic bloggers of the TBA. Even Handride is back (a little) for the occasion, misguided as he is thinking that Eskendereya is going to win.

- This is a way cool new video by The xx.

OTB to State: Nevermind!

Not only is NYC OTB not shutting down, they are staying open for at least another year, setting forth on The Path Forward, as articulated in a press release...or, should I say, a "reference guide" released by its public relations outfit on Saturday. Under this Path, OTB will shut 2/3rds of its parlors, install betting terminals in bars, sell of much of its contentious fleet of vehicles, and "implement deep cuts in management." Whatsmore, whaddya know, forget about that cut in its statutory payments; instead it will "defer" payments based on its handle from out-of-state simulcasts.

“I can’t quantify at this point the amount of pain that we’ll be inflicting on the [racing] industry,” Frucher said. “There will be pain. You can’t pay what you don’t have.” [Thoroughbred Times]

OK, so they'll be some pain. Buit all of this will be accomplished with just a minor tweak from the dysfunctional state legislature.

NYC OTB’s Path Forward only requires one piece of immediate, interim legislation which is necessary to protect our hard-working employees. This legislation is needed to authorize early retirement incentives for NYC OTB employees, at no cost to the State or taxpayer, to facilitate headcount reduction while converting to a technology-based model.

But wait, I don't understand. How do you go, seemingly overnight, from 'Ohmygod, we're broke, we're desperate, we have to close, we need to cut our mandated payments otherwise 1300 people will lose their jobs, NYRA will be doomed, harness tracks will be devastated" to basically submitting to most of the long-stated demands and continuing on as if nothing happened? It's like a big nevermind. So what, that was all bullshit to try and save high-paying political patronage jobs and squeeze the horsemen and racetracks out of some dough? Or a big PR stunt?

"They cried poverty one week and the next week they say they can keep their doors open for another year?" said Austin Shafran, spokesman for the state Senate's Democratic majority. "This demonstrates an overwhelming need for an honest and clear accounting of OTB's finances and operations before any taxpayer dollars spent." [Associated Press]

Perhaps the Inspector General should have a look at this farce once he's done with the AEG fiasco.

Oh Too Big

I have some financial reports that I'd gotten from NYRA a couple of years ago; and it shows that, in 2007, NYC OTB handled just under $300 million on NYRA races, generating a 'Net to NYRA' of $7.9 million. That's a percentage of just 2.69%, as opposed to over 9% for on-track bets (which now include those placed via NYRA Rewards). However, there was an additional 'Net to NYRA' of some $14.75 million from non-NYRA races and contractual payments. The total of $22.7 million could keep NYRA going until the racino casino at Aqueduct Belmont is finally built, probably even if that's not until 2012. Easy to see why Charlie Hayward has said that all bets are off should OTB close.

And therein lies the dilemma here. I agree wholeheartedly [in principle] with those who say to slay the parasite; shutter the seedy parlors, and send Sandy Frucher back to Philadelphia. But another report I have shows that, in 2006, NYC OTB paid out over $100 million statewide to the "Racing Industry (Sum of payments to breeders' funds and racetracks). Even if those figures are down as much as, say, 15%, and as inefficient, corrupt, wasteful, and seedy as NYC OTB is, that's too big to fail kind of money.

So that's why I still expect, no matter what the OTB board announces this weekend regarding its closing, that something will get done in Albany. No doubt that this something, if it does indeed come to pass, will be a band-aid which will not address the fundamental issues that have led to the present dismal state of affairs. Seeing a reference in the memo of the failed bill to finally permitting OTB (and, consequently, NYRA) to stream the races online, and another to the concept of consolidations, mergers, acquisitions or consolidations does makes me think that maybe someone in the capitol is starting to get it. But if they all soon don't, we'll be in the same position this time next year.

- NYRA is looking past the current crisis with the apparent expectation that it shall survive. In a letter from Charlie Hayward and C. Steven Duncker to Breeders' Cup Chairman William Farish, NYRA seeks to "engage BCL in a discussion that will result in Belmont Park hosting the 2011 Breeders' Cup." The letter cites the four "memorable" events already run there, the sweeping turns and crisp fall weather, both of which appeal to the Europeans, the population of top stables based here, and New York as the media capital of the world.

In addition, Hayward and Duncker take aim at the idea to move the Breeders' Cup permanently to Santa Anita.

NYRA believes that moving the Breeders' Cup to a single location, particularly to Southern California and Santa Anita's artificial racing surface, imposes a severe hardship on horsemen and racing customers. Even before the introduction of artificial racing surfaces in California, thoroughbred horses shipping to California from the eastern part of the country were disadvantaged on the Santa Anita dirt surface.

Now What? (Updated)

The legislature is gone for the weekend - nice working hours, eh? - and the deal to save NYC OTB is dead for now. Whether or not OTB will decide to once again delay its threatened closure until the politicians return to work on Monday is not known.

Assembly Racing Committee Chairman Gary Pretlow said he expects NYCOTB to shut down April 18. “Monday is the slowest betting day, so maybe they do something to show they can do it,” Pretlow said. “But we’ll be back (April 19).”

Pretlow said he was surprised at the level of opposition by the racing industry. NYCOTB handle about $1 billion each year.

“(The industry) opposed saving OTB, which I don’t know why, since they are their lifeblood,” Pretlow said. “I think eventually, they will see the handwriting.” [Bloodhorse.com]

Indeed. The proposed plan was fought tooth and nail by racetracks and horsemen (save NYRA, which supported the plan once it included a lifeline in the form of a $17 million advance against Big A slots revenue, more than enough to cover some $4 million in reduced OTB payments that would have resulted from the proposal) because of the reduction in payments from OTB which it would have entailed. That figure was reported to be 15%. Now they are facing a cut of 100%. And that doesn't make much sense. Sure, it sucks and it's totally unfair to expect tracks already receiving an unfairly low percentage of OTB's handle to swallow a further reduction in order to save the parasitic bookie operation. And the right thing to do is to merge not only NYC OTB, but all of the OTB's with the racetracks, starting with a transfer of the former's phone and internet wagering to NYRA. But, given that we know that's not going to happen, is 0% of the existing payments better than 85%? While, in the event of a closure, NYRA could pick up valuable business for its online wagering platform for which it receives its full on-track takeout, the harness tracks would be left completely out in the cold.

And is it a better alternative for the union to have zero jobs instead of the reductions being proposed, whether or not it is to receive the severance and sweeteners that they apparently had been promised?

So, maybe I'm wrong, but I do still expect something to be done when the lawmakers return on Monday, at which time all of the sides will have had time to digest the ramifications of doing nothing; and that includes the lawmakers themselves, which will have to deal with a bankrupt NYRA as well as the other tracks banging on their doors for help.

- Here's an excerpt from the latest of the totally ignorant newspaper editorials on the subject that I've seen, from today's Daily News:

After draining OTB of millions to prop up racing, after throwing it into bankruptcy court, after being warned that closure was coming, after promising to come up with a rescue plan, the bums left town yesterday without doing a thing.

In fact, OTB exists to "prop up" racing, and it is in fact OTB which has drained the sport to which it owes its existence, not the other way around. But hell, I certainly don't have to tell you guys that. Why don't we all go to the News' editorial and leave comments telling them how totally clueless they are about the subject, and to leave the editorializing to Jerry Bossert instead.

UPDATE: Interesting, Capitol Confidential has a draft of the proposed bailout plan, and the 15% reduction on payments was to apply only to out-of-state simulcast revenue, and would only amount to $1 million in total for the year. The draft also contains a provision which would have - finally! - allowed the OTB's to stream live broadcasts of the races. That would have also - finally! - freed up NYRA to do the same, which no doubt would have been a boost to their bottom line. It also would have allowed - permanently - "joint ventures between all the OTB's, tracks and NYRA for the purpose of negotiation, consolidation, mergers, acquisitions or consolidations." And, of course, the $17 million loan against future slots monies that would have, according to Charlie Hayward, would have kept its cash flow positive until the first quarter of 2011. So, I'm looking at this and wondering what exactly was the problem....and thinking that it will eventually get done.

Albany Lurches Toward OTB Rescue

Tom Precious reports on Bloodhorse.com on the situation in Albany as lawmakers attempt to devise a rescue, bailout, temporary fix, or whatever you want to call it, to keep NYC OTB going....for now, anyway.

Either way, the final agreement will not resolve the OTB’s longstanding problems—or those facing other OTBs or the larger questions of destructive competition between OTBs and tracks. Instead, it will merely punt those long-term issues until a year from now and after a new governor takes office in January. [Bloodhorse.com]

Hmmm, a new governor, eh? Can't imagine that the governor's mansion is going to be nearly as entertaining once Governor Paterson is gone. Well, unless this guy gets elected. Or...this one. (Sad commentary on the state of NY politics that Republicans actually have to recruit clowns like these from the Democrats.) Of course, barring some unforeseen event or prostitution scandal, the next governor is nearly certain to be Attorney General Andrew Cuomo....and who the hell knows what he thinks about racing and OTB's and casino gambling? In fact, who knows what the hell he thinks about anything? I'm sure he'll let us know once he's good and ready.

Precious reports that the situation is extremely fluid; seems it changed about a half dozen times even as he was writing his article.

In the past 48 hours, the terms of the deal has moved from cutting NYCOTB’s statutory payments to the industry from 15% to 48% and now back to 15%. Officials warned that number could change again in the coming hours.

The tracks and horsemen are naturally trying to resist any haircut. Seems absolutely incredible that OTB has successfully resisted the idea of a significant thinning of its bloated management ranks.

However, word is that NYRA would be compensated and sustained by a $17 million loan against the eventual slots money it will earn from the mythical racino at Aqueduct.

The $17 million is coming from $250 million the state would raise by issuing bonds for the Aqueduct project. The $250 million has been promised to the operator of the racino and is supposed to be used to build the VLT facility. [Capitol Confidential]

Well, duh! What took them so long? The state is obligated by the franchise agreement to keep NYRA afloat given its failure to name the racino operator. This would have been done long ago if not for the misdirected enmity towards NYRA, and the self-serving bashing that we've seen from politicians either too ignorant or stubborn to acknowledge the real reasons for its plight. (And yeah, the threat to shut down before the Belmont likely didn't help either.) I've maintained all along, with only occasional doubt and wavering, that Albany would not allow NYRA to fail, and a loan of this type is logical and inevitable in my view. A no-brainer, really, even for politicians without them.

Sunday Morning Notes

I guess that some might take the two upsets in Saturday's Derby preps as a sign that the crop is weak, and use them to bolster the case that Eskendereya is a likely winner as the solid favorite on May 1. But I'm going to use them to highlight the random nature of horse race results, especially in this era when we know far less about the Derby horses than in the past given the infrequency of their appearances, and the variety of racing surfaces which make interpretation of the results difficult, if not impossible. If anything, I'm more confident than before that the 20 horse field, the mile and a quarter distance, the commotion and distractions of an overflow crowd, and a Churchill main track which most of the horses have never raced over will all combine to produce a result which will make a value stab pay off for those lucky enough to stumble upon the winner. In my opinion, those factors alone almost always make the Kentucky Derby a race in which to take a contrarian view - and I say that with confidence despite the fact that four out of the last ten runnings have been won by the favorite. The prior 20 all failed; if anything, the long-term percentages point to Eskendereya doing so as well.

Blue Grass winner Stately Victor ($82.20), running on the Keeneland Poly for the first time since a hopelessly wide 6th in the Ky Breeders Futurity last year, couldn't get even close in four entry-level allowance races on dirt and grass since; and he earned a Beyer of 94 which is worthy of that level. You'd think that maybe his connections would spare us and allow a more qualified runner to run for the roses...but what do you think? This colt joins the parade of recent inconsequential winners of this race - General Quarters, Monba, Dominican, Sinister Minister....and when do you think it loses its Grade 1 status?

Stately Victor is not only the first Grade 1 winner for the second year stallion Ghostzapper....but it's his first graded winner period, and only his second stakes winner of any kind. Can you believe that this horse originally stood for a fee of $200,000? He presently fetches $30,000 standing for Frank Stronach at Adena. Stately Victor is out of the Grade 1 winner Collect The Cash (Dynaformer).

Arkansas Derby winner Line of David ($36.60) was also coming out of an entry-level allowance, but at least one could make a logical argument for him given his improvement for trainer John Sadler since blinkers were added; he's now unbeaten in three tries since that equipment change. This son of Lion Heart set some honest early fractions (22.65, 23.61), and no one could take advantage of his subsequent rapid deceleration (24.49, 25.77) enough to overtake him as he dug in for the final furlong, run in 12.85 seconds. I see him as yet another addition to what should be a contested pace in the Derby, but certainly no more than that.

Hunch Bets for Friday, April 9

Fast Approaching 8th at Penn National
Delusional 11th at Evangeline Downs
Inclined To Run 7th at Tampa Bay Downs
Meet Me Midway 1st at Lone Star
Holy Trouble 1st at Aqueduct
Lies And Affairs 9th at Mountaineer
Give No Ground 6th at Gulfsteam
Be Fair 10th at Oaklawn

Candy For Thought

A lot of discussion about the SA Derby winner Sidney's Candy and his Derby prospects in this comments section. I was looking at his past performances, and realized that I saw his first race; I was actually at Del Mar that day and posted about it too, though without mentioning him by name. The winner was a hot first-timer for Baffert who went to the front and hung on over Sidney's Candy gamely; I do recall the race quite clearly.

It's one of the races that DiscreetPicks was referring to when he wrote that the horse has spent ample time sitting behind the leader, and doesn't necessarily have to be in front, a trait which would almost certainly doom him at Churchill (if the unfamiliar surface doesn't do so itself). I think that's a fair point, as well as the fact that the horse has rated quite kindly in his last two front-running wins and shown a nice burst turning for home. However I also think that going to the front is clearly his tendency and preference; as El Angelo pointed out, he was close to a hot pace in the two races in which he broke OK and didn't lead. So I do think he's going to have to do things he's never done before (besides adapting to dirt) if he's going to get the roses. 9-2 on this horse? I wouldn't touch that. But he's clearly talented enough to become enticing at higher odds. Sure wouldn't mind having him at the 22-1 that he closed at in the final futures pool, that's for sure.

Sidney's Candy does have some distance influence in his pedigree, at least on his distaff side. His sire, Candy's Ride, was a champion miler and the AWD of his progeny is only 6.91 furlongs according to Pedigree Query. But he's out of a Storm Cat mare who herself is out of Exchange. That mare, Sidney's Candy's second dam, won the Allez France at around a mile and a quarter, and the Santa Barbara at exactly the same. His third dam is a half to the Queen's Plate winner Steady Growth. Sidney's Candy checks in with a dosage index of 1.86 well under the now discredited 4.0 "limit" for the Derby, but still in my mind an indication that he should be able to get the route.

Miffed in Monticello

State Senator John Bonacic issued a press release regarding the proposal being discussed in the Assembly, which I reported here on Wednesday, to direct monies from racinos, including the Monticello track which is located in his district, to bail out NYC OTB.

A proposal currently being discussed in Albany will stop payments to Monticello in the amount of approximately $2 million a year. Monticello is already struggling. “If this plan were enacted, it would be a crystal clear example of New York City Democrats, who control State government, not caring about anyone but themselves. Attempting to take millions of dollars from the Catskills economy, to pay for their New York City based OTB operation, is something those of us who represent race tracks - particularly Yonkers and Monticello, must fight,” Bonacic said.

The partisan politics in the GOP Senator's statement aside, Monticello would certainly seem to be the unlikeliest and most ill-equipped of all the state's racinos to have its resources directed toward bailing out OTB. Representative Pretlow is well-aware of that, and acknowledged so in the plan he suggested last month when he singled the track out for more accelerated payments than the others. In addition, NYC OTB owes Monticello some $4.4 million according to the former's bankruptcy filing.

Yonkers, which would take a bigger hit under the plan being considered, is owed over $18 million.

- Charlie Hayward told the Albany Times Union's Tim Wilkin: "Listen, I love Monmouth Park, it's one of my favorite tracks....But it's not Saratoga."

No, it's not (though it does have a beach just a short drive away). Hayward said he's not concerned about Monmouth's purse-enhanced meet adversely effecting the Spa, but that it could effect Belmont, which opens on April 30. Monmouth will open on May 22, offering 12 race cards Friday through Sunday.

Governor Paterson, during an impromptu press conference to discuss the (poor) state of the budget negotiations, addressed the Aqueduct racino situation. "We're putting together a process which we think will be a lot faster." And he said that with a straight face. Of course, if it's any slower (or even the same speed), Paterson will already be an ex-governor by the time it's over (even if he makes it to the end of his term).

"We're using the general procurement rules that we would use for any type of bidding, except for the fact that the leaders are not bound by that procurement process. [ed note: Oh man!] Only the governor is. So what I will do....I will make my first proposal to the leaders, of whichever one of the companies meets the highest test of our procurement process."

That doesn't really sound all that different from the last round, does it? Maybe they should just let Yolanda Vega pick the winner out of the Powerball guy's hat. Or from his stomach. Or maybe they could take a share of those new millionaire's winnings to help bail out OTB.

I was really thrilled to see that going on at Aqueduct on Saturday....just great to see that photo of the lucky winners standing in front of the empty grandstand (even on Wood day with its announced crowd of over 8,000). If someone sees that picture along with the story, do you think they'd be more likely to buy a lottery ticket or go to the track?

Slots Dough To The Rescue?

April 11 is D-Day for NYC OTB, and the Assembly is said to be working on a plan to save it, along with the jobs and the vital payments to NYRA that would go down with it. There was a report the other day about a proposal by Rep Gary Pretlow that would involve layoffs, including amongst the management ranks, and a 10% cut in OTB's statutory payments to the racing industry.

However, I've learned that the Assembly is, as an alternative, working on a plan which would skim racino dollars from the harness tracks in order to bail out OTB. Yonkers would be hit particularly hard, to the tune of some $23 million. "Racino guys upset," I'm told. Can't blame them, but racino profits are always a tempting target, as we've seen in other states. And recall that the racinos got an increase in their share for marketing a couple of years ago. One way or another, the racing industry is going to have to pay their share for any OTB bailout at this point.

Also told that Governor Paterson is close to an agreement with the legislative leaders regarding a new round of bidding for the Big A racino....one with well-defined criteria for which the bidders will be scored, perhaps, and hopefully, based on the fully transparent process conducted by the Ad Hoc committee for the racing franchise under the Pataki Administration many, many, many, many moons ago.

News and Notes

- Awesome Act (Awesome Again) is a horse who I'd view a whole lot differently at 15- or 20-1 in the Derby as opposed to my standing against him at low odds in his two races here. I dissed his Gotham win here, citing his pedigree to support my contention that his future was on the grass. However, as I conceded at the time, he gets props for winning first time dirt while getting it kicked in his snout, and overcame an eventful trip down amongst horses. His Wood is a total throwout given his thrown shoe and impossible pace scenario. He'll hang here in New York and train at Belmont.

He does have an interesting pedigree, and certainly seems suited to dirt. He's out of a Mr. Prospector mare, and he's inbred 4x2 to that stallion. Awesome Act also has the Rasmussen Factor, inbred as he is 5x4 to Natalma, his 4th dam, through Northern Dancer and Raise the Standard.

- Eskendereya is the second Derby favorite in the last three years, Big Brown being the other, to have made his first start on grass and then discover the dirt by "accident" in an off-the-turf race. Exactly what that means I can't say. As I'd mentioned in this post, his 4th dam is Queen Sucree, the dam of the Derby winner Cannonade. She's also the granddam of the Belmont winner Stephen's Odyssey, and the Acorn winner Lotka. And Queen Sucree is also a half-sister to Halo, the sire of two Derby winners and quite the accomplished distance runner himself. Gotta go back a bit in this colt's pedigree, but therein lies some class and stamina.

- Noble's Promise, the likely favorite in Saturday's Arkansas Derby, is an anomaly pedigree-wise. By the Carson City sire Cuvee, out of the speedy Clever Trick, one might dismiss his distance prospects. But his dosage checks in at an acceptable 3.36; and his dam is a half-sister to New Economy (Robert G. Dick Memorial, 1 3/8M). If you look under his third dam, you'll find distance runners such as Parade Ground (Lawrence Realization, 1 3/8M), Plenty of Grace (Diana, Yellow Ribbon 1 1/4M), and the BC F&M Turf winner Soaring Softly (all turf horses).

I could be interested in this one with a further move forward from his impressive dirt debut, a close second to Lookin At Lucky in the Rebel. He comes off a nice work under the handling of the clever Ken McPeek, who seems to have a master plan.

“We were not in the Rebel to be 100 percent....We did not want that race to be his best prep. But, he ran well there. Lookin At Lucky really had to fight to beat him.” [Albany Times Union]

The trainer also agrees with me about Eskendereya.

“The horse from New York is obviously very talented....But, has he been in any dogfights? Where was he in the Breeders’ Cup last year? We’ve been in dogfights. I have no doubt our horse will perform well.”

Oh yeah, Friday is the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn; forgot about that. Rachel Alexandra isn't around, so Zenyatta will be taking on Tiger Woods all by herself. Those who predicted that the "race for the ages" would be no match publicity-wise for this weekend's Masters probably would have been right based on what we've seen thus far.

Rachel herself is in Churchill, and apparently in no rush for a race, as Jess Jackson perpetuates the myth that she wouldn't have been "fit" to take on Zenyatta on Friday. Steve Asmussen told the Form:

"I'm going to keep working her every Monday....We're just going to worry about getting her back to where she was, and nothing else. I'm not going to concern myself about where and when she runs next."

By the time she finally runs again, maybe the rest of us won't be concerning ourselves with her either.

Wood Produces Vulnerable Fave

The weather wasn't nearly as hot, nor as sunny as it was supposed to be; a sea breeze phenomenon we're told by the weather folks, and the fog that obscured the view of the 11th race was evidence of that. But the (announced) crowd of 8,553, as paltry as that figure may seem to outsiders, certainly exceeded my expectations given the complete lack of marketing and media coverage, and the relentless skewering directed at NYRA by the press and politicians; particularly, and unfairly, amplified over the past year as it has been.

For Eskendereya, I couldn't help but be reminded of Bellamy Road's similarly facile Wood Memorial win; though minus the theatrics by the jockey (Johnny V was too busy looking behind him to be clowning around); and some 11 points lower on the Beyer scale (Eskendereya earned a fig of 109). And I believe the comparison is an instructive one, and one I will keep in mind when I am all...and I mean all....in against him come Derby Day four weeks hence.

Joe Drape, reporting for the Times from Santa Anita (odd isn't it that the New York Times' top racing writer would be in on the left coast reporting on a race of dubious value as a prep for a race run on a different surface rather than at a local prep which has proven to be historically significant...perhaps he's busy working on some kind of toxic story to be published on Derby Day) wrote: Better yet, Eskendereya was hardly taxed.

However, considering that the Kentucky Derby is by far the most taxing race this colt will participate in to that point, I don't consider races like the certain post-time favorite's Wood to be an ideal prep. It's kind of a conundrum; kinda like I'm penalizing the horse for being too good. However, this son of Giant's Causeway gained nothing in the way of dealing with the kind of adversity he's likely to encounter at Churchill. Again. Because, as in the Fountain of Youth, he was able to stalk an easy pace - in this case, 24 1/5 and then a breather! - a second quarter in 25 flat (all after a clean break and uneventful aftermath), behind a hopelessly outclassed NY-bred and Zito's bridesmaid Jackson Bend. So, and again as in the FOY, while there's no denying the impressiveness of his bold move to the lead; nor of his closing splits of 24.11 and 12.24 while under restraint, it's easy to comprehend why he had that much left.

No doubt that this Derby favorite has earned the distinction on merit, and that he has displayed the most talent in the crop by a comfortable margin. If Johnny V can work out the kind of trip behind slow fractions, then all power to him and his horse, and he'll probably win for fun. But we all know that that's a scenario which is highly unlikely. Far better chance he takes a bump or two after the start and, unless he picks up his pace early, is around midpack going into the first turn. Then, he'll be asked to do several things that he's never done before. And that makes him a terrible bet as a decisive favorite in the race.

On the other hand (and coast), the reviews for Garrett Gomez' ride aboard Lookin at Lucky are about as good as those for the new MGMT album.

“His ride was horrendous,” Baffert said of Gomez. “He took him back, and he was fighting him.” [NYT]

The trainer didn't want to hear any excuses about how his horse cut shut off and shuffled out of the race when Victor Espinoza, riding 24-1 Who's Up, dropped in on him approaching the second turn.

“He’s using that as an excuse....It doesn’t matter. Whatever. Victor did what he did, but I mean, ‘cause I took him off of Misremembered. He gets like that. He pouts.

“But he (Gomez) shouldn’t have been in that spot. ... When I saw him on the rail, I said, ‘What is he doing?” He must not have seen Jerry Bailey’s (educational) tape. We’re going to buy him some DVD’s.” [SignOnSanDiego]

Our game would be a more popular one if there were more trainers as animated as Baffert, wouldn't it? Maybe Gomez was doing him a favor though. Hard to imagine that Lookin at Lucky could find much more trouble even in the big race. He recovered extremely well in rallying for third, and might just be better for the experience at a price which should be more generous than if he had run off like Pletcher's horse. Front-running winner Sidney's Candy earned a Beyer of 100 (for whatever that's worth); nice job by Joe Talamo slowing the half to 48 2/5 (3/5th slower than the maiden race which was the only other two-turn main track race on the day); but again, he ain't likely to replicate that at Churchill. Setsuko flew home against the pace grain in 11.75 seconds to get the place; money prospects for Derby day.


- I was off on Good Friday, and spent the day at MoMA (Museum of Modern Art for you non-New Yorkers). Yes, the Tim Burton exhibit was way cool; better, in fact, than I expected, a legitimate exhibit of intricate and creepy drawings and not just a show of set pieces from his films. But it was the wacky Marina Abramovic show which will certainly be the more memorable, whether or not it truly qualifies as art.

Let me be right up front here. 1) Yes, I chose, of my own free will and volition, to enter via the passageway that is blocked by two butt naked people facing each other not much more than a foot apart. 2) Yes, I was quite pleased that both of the "performers" when I was there were women. And 3) Yes, I turned to face the more buxom of the two as I squeezed between. Yeah, so? What of it?

I fully intend to return on a less crowded day - not to slide between naked women again....OK, maybe....but also and especially to participate in the ongoing performance in which museum goers can sit across a table from Ms. Abramovic and engage in a staring contest for a period of time of their choosing. She will be there every day, all day, each day the museum is open through the close of her exhibit on May 31; some 700 hours of staring in all. Bet you can't even look at the Derby pp's for that long. The odds are 6-5 I can last a half hour, wanna bet?

Break in the Gloom

The past performances are out for Saturday's 11 race Wood Memorial card at the Big A on what is supposed to be a gorgeous day. Even a couple of grass races on the program. But who knows, could be the last time the historic Derby prep will be run there. Maybe it'll go to New Jersey like the Cane Pace did after the slots debate moves to Belmont and the wrecking balls move in. They could have a one day meet at the Meadowlands and raise the purse by a few million bucks. The April 11th deadline for NYC OTB to close is approaching, and the New York racing world is watching with dread.

Many industry leaders are concerned NYRA might not be able to stay open this spring and summer.

“It’s going to be close,” Rick Violette, a prominent trainer, NYRA board member, and New York Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Association president, said on Wednesday. [Thoroughbred Times]

I'm sticking to my usual belief, confirmed up to this point in time, that, in the end, the politicians in Albany will not allow the industry to fail; especially in this case where the blame would be squarely on their shoulders. But today, on the E train home, I was listening to J Mascis sing, on Get Me from Dinosaur Jr.'s Where You Been LP: "You're not going to get me through this, are you?" And one sure couldn't blame NYRA and the horsemen if they're starting to think that way about their elected leaders who have put them in this position through their incompetence, arrogance, and unmitigated gall.

I mean, don't even get me started about these three stooges in the Senate who are fighting the Inspector General's subpoena into the all-too-blatant political favoritism they lavished on Aqueduct Entertainment Group. A state Supreme Court judge ruled against them on Wednesday, saying their objections were "without merit." However, they intend to appeal. Seriously, which is more blatantly obvious, the selection itself, or this clumsy attempt to cover it up? Man, I can't wait to see what they're trying to hide. And to hear what the governor has to say too, especially given his lame duck status and his continuing descent into paranoia and incoherency.

Anyway, back to the Wood, and, unfortunately, the race has no buzz or juice at all around here, despite the presence of the horse who I guess is considered the consensus Derby favorite at this time. Maybe they'll get 4500 people there. That's what happens when the headlining horse has only five career races at this point in time, and last raced in New York in an off-the-turf stakes race last October. I'm not intimidated by that 106 that Eskendereya earned some six weeks ago in the FOY.

Not to say he wasn't impressive of course. I particularly liked the way he calmly and effortlessly glided up into stalking position after breaking a bit sluggishly from a treacherous outside post. However, on the other hand, once he did so, he sat behind a moderate pace (slower to the half than the 10K claiming race which was the only other two-turn dirt race run that day) set by a horse making his first start on dirt, and with Buddy's Saint getting jostled down inside. He was set up well then to make the big move in the stretch that he did, finishing up in racehorse time of 12.33 seconds; final three-eighths in a solid 36.46. I'd be willing to take a shot against....

....though moreso in a deeper field than this where one might find some value. Just six entries (and only 23 betting interests in the four graded stakes); including a state-bred allowance runner with a standardbred name, and a recent maiden graduate. I was against Awesome Act on price in the Gotham, and suspect I'll be the same on Saturday in just his second start of the year, anticipating that he'll be a well-bet second choice.

Schoolyard Dreams is the kind of horse I like, and I'd take a look at decent odds. He's making his - gasp - 4th start of the season. It's been just three weeks since his grueling and improbable loss to the impressive Odysseus in the Tampa Bay Derby. These days, some might consider that to be too little for a horse to recover from such an effort, but I'm taking it as a positive in this case. He's improved solidly in his last two since adding blinkers, and should have the upper hand on the top two in terms of foundation and tough race experience. And you gotta love the bullet half mile on the 27th. In the money in all of his five career races, he somehow got beat at Tampa after changing tactics and making a bold sweeping move around the turn. Schoolyard Dreams has gone through jockeys like Governor Paterson goes through senior staff members; and here, for his sixth jockey in his sixth race, he lands Ramon (in fact, he's one of the reasons the horse is running here instead of in the Illinois Derby). Trainer Derek Ryan will be looking for a better timed move than the one supplied by Jeremy Rose in the TB Derby. "You can't hit the front too soon," Ryan said. [DRF]

AEG Out of the Money In Lottery Report

The New York Times has obtained, via a FOIL request, a copy of the Lottery's confidential assessment of the Aqueduct bidders which was prepared in August. The Senate Democrats who held out stubbornly for Aqueduct Entertainment Group, which ranked only 4th amongst the six candidates, have a lot of 'splaining to do. And as much as Senators Sampson, Smith, and Espada would like to resist the subpoenas of the Inspector General looking into the matter - and quite brazenly and outrageously I'd say - the IG filed a strongly-worded response to their objections insisting that they do.

In papers filed last night in state Supreme Court in New York County, Inspector General Joseph Fisch's office argued that Senate Democratic Conference Leader John Sampson, Majority Leader Pedro Espada Jr. and President Malcolm Smith are under the "misapprehension" that their status as state lawmakers means they don't have to hand over the information he's seeking.
....
The IG's memorandum makes for interesting reading.

At once point, he notes the "disjointed, fractured state of the Senate leadership," which caused him to subpoena all three Democrats with leadership titles, even though Smith is the only person who, under the Tax Law, is authorized to enter into an MOU.

The IG has also found evidence of "extensive contact" with Senate and Assembly staffers by racino bidders.

"The Senate and individual senators have woefully failed to meet their burden of demonstrating that the Inspector General's subpoenas seek information that is 'utterly irrelevant' to this investigation and that inquiry would be 'futile'" the IG wrote.

"...In fact, such a claim would strain credulity as the Senate and its staff were undeniably involved in the process, actually interacted with executive officials, lobbyists and bidders, and obviously could shed light upon the actions that preceded the contingent selection of AEG." [Daily Politics]

These three clowns should be ashamed and embarrassed, but I don't think those words are in the Albany vocabulary. I imagine that in the end, it will be clear that the conflicts of interest which led to AEG's selection was theirs and theirs alone, and that the governor was merely worn down to the point where he went along. If Paterson wasn't stupid enough to meet with Floyd Flake the next business morning after the selection, the heat on this matter would be firmly where it belongs.

Meanwhile, with no resolution to the budget talks in sight, the State Senate passed budget extender bills which will keep the government functioning....or should I say, "functioning," past the April 1 deadline during which the legislators will be out of town for the holidays. And, as was reported late last week, a temporary lifeline of $1.4 million to keep NYCOTB functioning at least through Derby Day was scuttled.

And that's where the drama lies now; forget about the racino, that ain't happening anytime in the near future with the governor determined to start the bidding anew rather than simply pick from one of the four passed over for AEG. You'll recall Charlie Hayward's assertion that "all bets are off" should OTB cease operations and the payments it makes to the association. (Though they owe NYRA back payments, they've kept current since filing for bankruptcy.) Albany Law School's Bennett Liebman told Paul Post last week: “If they stop paying NYRA, that’s it....Really, that’s more important than VLTs at the current time.” [Thoroughbred Times]`

- Monmouth Park has released its first condition book for its condensed racing season, and you can view it here. Charlie Hayward and PJ Campo don't want to look.

Included in the condition book are maiden special weight purses set at $75,000 and entry level allowance events for $80,000. By comparison, those races were run for $38,000 and $41,000, respectively, in 2009. In addition, all runners in all races are guaranteed $1,500 to start. [Monmouth Park Press Release]

Back From Paradise

Outta Here

Time for our annual trip to tropical paradise, so the gate is closed until March 27. At least. Can't believe I'm going to miss the health care vote Florida Derby. Good luck at the tote and have a great week.

No Quick Fix

Community leaders are calling for a quick pick from the losing Aqueduct bidders.

“Given that no new bidders have entered into the Aqueduct selection process for over a year and that the state has all the financial and background information on the remaining bidders, it is conceivable that a quick, efficient and valid selection of an Aqueduct operator can be made,” said state Sen. Joe Addabbo Jr. (D-Howard Beach). [Queens Chronicle]

The Senate Democratic leader Senator John Sampson is also reportedly in favor of a quick resolution, ostensibly because, he says, the state needs the money, but probably mostly to get it all over with before the Inspector General's report comes out and exposes the fact that it was he and his cronies who stubbornly held out for AEG, wearing down the governor until he went along.

But Paterson, whose statements and explanations are becoming increasingly bizarre and of questionable veracity, said the other day that he is hopeful that they'll come up with a procedure in a month!! And Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver apparently will not press the issue as long as the investigation is going on.

So this thing is obviously going to go on for awhile. Longer. At some point, NYRA will run out of money, and the state will, despite an unimaginable budget deficit that's almost five times the one that Albany couldn't quite deal with late last year, will figure out a way to step in and keep racing going. I suspect that I'm in the stark minority of those who still believe the latter. We'll see.

Interesting to note that the governor wants to scrap Sheldon Silver's condition that every single investor, down to the last speck and drop, be eligible for licensing by the state.

"We're going to have to have something in there that goes to the spirit of what the speaker wants, but it's got to be one that's actually practical and feasible," the aides said. [Daily News]

Of course it was exactly that which ultimately led to the DQ of AEG. You can bet that they're just going to love that.

Saratoga - Life Goes On

Governor - yes, still! - Paterson said on Tuesday that he doesn’t believe the Saratoga racing meet is threatened.

“There are financial encumbrances that the racing authority is going through, but I wouldn’t project that the Saratoga racing season is in jeopardy at this point."

Feel better yet?

"That may have, in itself, been a bit brash. But the basic notion that the racing association is suffering – the racing association was suffering prior to this recession.” [Capitol Confidential]o

Here, the governor descends into incoherence. Consider too that he made this statement while signing a bill regarding end-of-life health decision making.

That's the kind of decision making that Assemblyman Gary Pretlow was hinting at on Monday. He too dismissed the chances of a shutdown upstate; but still, I found it rather jarring to hear him discuss quite seriously the "worst-case scenario" of Aqueduct or Belmont closing "for a week or two" instead. Pretlow is doing his part to prevent a closure, rejecting NYC OTB's crazy harebrained scheme to cut statutory payments and borrow money; and instead calling for a drastic reduction in executive salaries and the purchase of a single tote operator to serve all of the state's racetracks and regional OTB's. Seems like a reasonable start.

In any event, the way I see it, no way is there any chance of an interruption of racing at Saratoga. That is not happening, I don't care about the doomsday scenario presented in the Times Union's Saratoga Seen blog the other day. Everyone makes money there....well, not everyone. But, you know, the state gets its fair share of the big handle there, and it doesn't have to worry about NYRA for six plus weeks. Maybe they'll even select an operator for Aqueduct by the time it's over.

No Dignity In Ducking Zenyatta

I can't really blame Jess Jackson for being scared of seeing Rachel Alexandra get her little butt kicked by Zenyatta. But even he says that "she is healthy"; though "she is not in top form."

Well, a hard race and 26 days with a future Hall of Fame trainer should take care of that. Shouldn't it? I mean, as several commenters noted, had Zardana not been in the race, and she won by 11 with a 100 Beyer, we'd be looking forward to Oaklawn, and we wouldn't be having this conversation. "We now regret we tried to accelerate her training in order to meet the Apple Blossom schedule." Here's Jackson implying that he was somehow coerced into pointing to the race, like when he blamed people for "forcing" him to run Curlin on the awful plastic in the Breeders Cup.

If Rachel was 80-85% on Saturday, as Jackson says, shouldn't she be at least 90-95% in four weeks after a productive effort? Unless there's something about her condition that we're not being told? And, given the tactical advantage that her speed gives her over Zenyatta....not to mention the highly significant fact that Zenyatta will be running on dirt, a surface over which she's only raced on once, meaning there's no guarantee she could replicate her recent raging form....wouldn't that give her a decent shot? And besides, as long as she is indeed healthy, what's the worst that would happen? She might - gasp - lose to Zenyatta? Would that really sully her reputation, or drive Jackson into disgrace? Do we all think of Alydar as a hopeless loser? Is all this really that important? Jess Jackson has no respect for this sport or its fans.

And here we have Joe Drape, whose relentlessly negative articles around big race days has probably done as much to sully the reputation of this sport as anything, supporting these guys: They have made a wise decision.

Because of Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta, for the first time in decades the sport has been made accessible and relevant to folks who thought horse racing was a time-capsule relic, and a cruel one at that.

Yeah, those are probably the people who have been reading your articles!

It is far more important to preserve that sentiment, as well as Rachel Alexandra’s dignity, than it is to force some sort of showdown that has often ended in calamity. Remember Ruffian against Foolish Pleasure? [NY Times]

Oh please, spare us...I can't believe he played the Ruffian card, how lame! You wanna also tell me that health care reform will end in the government running our lives and deciding who lives and dies? Did Drape complain when Jackson ran this filly back in the Preakness off two weeks rest? (I'm asking.) Now that was something to worry about! And what's this about Rachel Alexandra's dignity?? SHE'S A FUCKING HORSE! She has no dignity! She's paraded around a racetrack naked, relieves herself in the full view of the public, and gets beaten with a whip if she's not running fast enough! How about the dignity of this sport, which could sure use a showcase moment, even if it was only for the deserving hardcore fans on a Friday afternoon?

Rachel's Loss No Excuse

Joe Drape's lede in his story for the Times on Rachel Alexandra's defeat reads:

This was supposed to be an exhibition for Rachel Alexandra, an opportunity for the reigning Horse of the Year to take a lap before an adoring public. [NY Times]

Oh, I thought it was her first race in six months, intended primarily to help her get some conditioning, and to get ready for a more important race in four weeks. And if her connections do "reassess her schedule," as Steve Asmussen indicated (according to Drape) and decide to pass a meeting with the mighty Zenyatta on April 9, it will be simply because they want to, and nothing to do with the result of the New Orleans Ladies Stake. This filly needed a race, period.

Ridden in accordance with his instructions, Calvin Borel sat off a fairly quick pace, and Rachel continued under restraint as she took the lead turning for home at a time when, under other circumstances, she might have opened up lengths and discouraged the competition.

"I wanted to let her run her race early but they wanted me to wait. I wanted to go on past the speed horse early (Fighter Wing). I’d have got by her anytime and my filly could have gone on but they wanted me to wait and not get into her until the sixteenth pole. [Bloodhorse]

If you instruct your rider to take a horse out of its game, and ride a race as if it's just a prep, don't then come crying to me about the horse not being dead-solid perfect if she happens to get beat. There was nothing wrong with Rachel Alexandra's race; she showed her class by fighting to the end, and still earned a Beyer of 100; not bad for an off day. The winner had dominated in her prior three dirt races (all in Brazil), and might just be very good. It's a race that can only benefit the defending Horse of the Year. "The filly's lacking fitness," said Asmussen. But horses get fit with tighteners like this, and I bet she'll be fitter for the effort in a few days. If she's not, they might as well retire her now.

Exit AEG

Remember that Governor Paterson had, laughably, recused himself from the mess surrounding Aqueduct Entertainment Group that he helped to create. (And recusing sure seems to be a trend these days in the eternally conflicted capital.) So the announcement of the demise of the group's racino project was in the form of a statement issued in his name; and a terse and detached one at that.

“The Division of the Lottery has concluded that it cannot issue a gaming license to Aqueduct Entertainment Group.....Therefore, the state has officially withdrawn its support for AEG” to develop and operate the video lottery facility. [Bloomberg]

I can't imagine though that even Paterson couldn't help but roll his eyes shake his head when he saw was read the part about the next selection being "done pursuant to an expedited, transparent, apolitical, and publicly accountable procurement process." Of course, the process that led up to this latest failed selection was none of the above; had it been, perhaps the outcome would have been different. Nice of him to think of that now.

There seems to be some question as to whether the problem is that Lottery, as Paterson claims, cannot issue the license (not that the governor would ever lie); or whether they just don't want to.

An official at the lottery who spoke on the condition of anonymity said that the lottery division did not want to issue AEG a license because the structure of its partnership underwent continual changes since the group submitted its bid last May, including several changes just prior to a deadline to submit background materials on the partners on Tuesday. [Daily Racing Form]

Those last minute changes included the departures of Floyd Flake and Jay-Z; and Elizabeth Benjamin reported that those were the final straws.

"Such belated removals could not be expected during the ongoing (Lottery) investigation since they created the appearance that AEG was being allowed to conceal relevant information,” an official with the state Lottery Division said.

“AEG claims they’ve given us everything, but you can’t say someone is in one day and then when we want to see their (background) information, say, ‘No, they’re not in anymore. It doesn’t work that way.” [Daily Politics]

But, for one thing, by eliminating individuals with any possible issues - all investors with insignificant stakes as far as I've seen - wasn't AEG merely complying with the conditions set forth to it by Sheldon Silver? And what's really the big problem with two investors who owned barely over 1% combined withdrawing out of their own substantial self-interest in keeping their personal financial information to themselves (knowing the details would turn up in a Fred Dicker column before too long)?

OK, I know, now I'm sounding like a big AEG supporter again, and say what you will. I know, they obviously were not the most qualified. But at this point, I'm fed up enough to settle for qualified enough. The group was apparently prepared to hand over the $300 million and finally get this thing going. If Lottery can't license these guys over some minor stakeholders that are no longer even connected, how, in the case that SL Green/Hard Rock is up next, are they going to license an entity which is running blatantly illegal table games in Florida? And what will a likely AEG lawsuit do to the process?

And besides, do you want to see this thing go on for the rest of the year? While we've generally heard calls for a new winner to be selected from the losing bidders from this round, James Odato reports on Capitol Confidential that Paterson’s office said it wants to rebid the project and select a winner by Dec. 31, the governor’s last scheduled day in office. (!!)

That frightening statement is blind ignores the fact that NYRA is running out of money, and that the state is broke (though maybe Dick Ravitch has a plan to borrow money on NYRA's behalf).

It's funny - I recall when Paterson selected AEG, there was an initial report I read that it was all a clever scheme. The Assembly Speaker would reject the choice, thus putting the onus on the Senate Democratic leaders who persistently insisted on the group despite the obvious appearance of impropriety given the connection between Flake and Senator Malcolm Smith. And though it didn't quite work out that way, the end result was the same. However, the focus is all on the beleaguered governor instead of where it really belongs. Maybe if he wasn't foolish enough to have that ill-fated meeting with Flake, at a time when he was still delusional enough to believe he had a shot at re-election, that wouldn't be the case. Instead, it's Paterson who, again, ends up looking bad.

Of course, these days the governor looks bad compared to everyone around here. (Well....almost everyone.)

Not So Awesome

The owner's lot was full at the Big A when I arrived there on Saturday. It was a bright and beautiful day, and it almost seemed crowded. I guess that 4,028 people will make it seem that way these days.

But I can't hang at Aqueduct for much more than 2 1/2 hours nowadays, so I didn't make it to the Gotham (despite a decent score on a cold $28 exacta in the 5th). Surely, I would have taken a bath had I stayed and found a horse I liked to beat Awesome Act as the favorite in his first race on dirt...one of those no-brainers as far as I'm concerned. And besides the fundamentals, I'd decided additionally that the colt is totally bred for grass on his distaff side, being out of Mr. Prospector half sister to a host of Euro stakes winners, including the successful, and deceased stallion Machiavellian. It's also the female family of the Arc winner Bago.

And despite his Gotham win, I still think his best days could very well come on grass. I think the fact that people seem to be hepped up on this colt off of this race just shows how hazy and wide-open the Derby picture is. Sure, he gets full credit for shipping in and handling the surface change. And his trip was not uneventful; he was in and among horses and showed ample poise and professionalism.

However, Awesome Act also benefited from a highly favorable pace scenario which set up his late run against a field of questionable quality. The first quarter was run in 22.85; the four-year olds Wall Street Wonder and Custom For Carlos were only slightly faster at 22.76 in the six furlong Toboggan. The half split of 46.60 was easily the quickest of the day in routes. And the horses who ended up 2-3-4 behind him were two who were making their third career starts and going beyond six furlongs for the first time; and the sixth-place finisher in the LeComte whose highest Beyer was 80. Further back were the top three finishers in the Whirlaway, dismissed by the bettors, and rightly so as it turned out.

So I'm tabbing Awesome Act to bet against in the Wood should he be favored against some new faces with more experience and talent than these.

- She & Him is the lovely and talented Zooey Deschanel, and Monster of Folk M. Ward. And given the bright blue skies and the itsy bitsy taste of spring at the races this past weekend (still a bit too chilly for me to get excited), their song In The Sun seems an appropriate one. And it has a pretty cool video too.

AEG Probe Is Special

James Odato reported in the Times Union on Monday that Inspector General Joseph Fisch has recused himself from the investigation into the selection of AEG because he's a Paterson appointee. The probe will be handled by Special Deputy Inspector General Philip Foglia. What makes him Special I'm not sure, but I suppose we'll find out.

Records required cover every e-mail, letter or report associated with the matter, according to a subpoena.....The award set off a controversy fueled by some of the finalists in the bidding war -- so fierce that a private entity furnished a thick investigatory report to the Lottery Division late last summer critical of people once associated with AEG, according to two people, one who saw the document said.

Catching up a bit, a couple of interesting quotes in an article by Paul Post in the Saratogian from Friday. Charlie Hayward said that NYRA is seeking $30 million from the state, to be repaid from slots revenue. “We’re in discussions with the state....They understand their obligations.” And NYRA's general counsel Patrick Kehoe added: “We’re close."

Hayward said NYRA could generate considerable extra money if certain legislative and regulatory changes were made, but chided state officials for failing to act.

He's talking about uncoupling trainer entries, and allowing live streaming of races on its betting platform. NYRA is not permitted to do by law because the OTB's aren't; isn't that Special? And, of the report issued earlier this year by the Task Force on the Future of Off-Track Betting which called for consolidation of certain operations of NYRA and OTB (stopping short though of recommending a NYRA takeover), Hayward said: “I think that report’s going to sit on a shelf and never be acted on." There's a big surprise.

Gulfstream Sunday

I've picked some live runners at fair odds lately - including, on Saturday, Summer Romance (5th by a length, head, and neck, and a fleeting moment at which she looked like she had a shot, at 22-1 in the Herecomesthebride; and Custer, third by a length and a nose at 5-1 in the finale - and, though they didn't get the job done, I figure that eventually I'll get a couple home if I can keep doing that. Right? So, forging on...

In the 5th, Paris Weekend (6-1) showed a bit of improvement with blinkers on three races back; and much more so when she was then stretched out to the one-turn mile distance of this race. This daughter of the AP Indy sire Full Mandate had to wait for room after moving up sharply inside on the turn, then angled out and wore down the leader before getting caught late. Coa returns; another shot here.

In the 10th, Saint Jude (8-1) comes off a maiden special win over Paddy O'Prado, who came back to win the G3 Palm Beach with a 93 Beyer on Saturday. There goes 8-1 I guess. Still a tough task stepping up to face winners, so you have to demand some value; but I love the way this three-year old son of Eurosilver has taken to the grass. He was three wide on the first turn of that last race; and a good 4-5 wide turning for home. Still, he came home in 11 2/5 (don't you love turf racing?) and prevailed in a long drive over Kaiser Chief, a $450,000 Johannesburg colt making its grass debut for Pletcher, and finishing almost three lengths in front of Paddy O'Prado. His prior was a second in a race which has produced four subsequent winners. Trainer David Vivian repeats a successful workout pattern with a five furlong breeze a week before this race. Solid barn, 20% over the last three years, has had a slow meet, but has shown signs of life with a win (Givonna Alyssa at 26-1), a narrow second and a third with his last three starters at the meet. Forty Nine Acres (5-1) seems overpriced at those odds; lone grass try was an excellent second at this level with a field high Beyer.

Gulfstream Saturday

The 7th at Gulfstream is the G3 Herecomesthebride. Tough race with four out of the top five finishers in the last month's overnight Coconut Grove Stakes meeting again after they all finished within 1 3/4 lengths of each other. Musical Romance (8-1) did not come out of that race, and maybe will get overlooked in the betting despite having beaten In the Rough (4-1), the Coconut Grove winner, two races back. Three-year old daughter of Concorde's Tune was forced to take up when she found a wall of horses while gaining on the turn; and she showed determination and a nice closing burst to get home in time. It was an impressive move forward off her turf debut, and, after a race on the synthetic at Ocala which I'll toss, she's a play at this price in her third grass try, breaking from the inside two hole.

In the 8th, Custer (5-1) has been a consistent performer on the turf since switching to the surface at Monmouth last summer, fits in this flawed field class and Beyer-wise, and starts from a favorable post for the live Edward Plesa barn (three wins and four seconds from his last 13 starters here). Tierra Del Tigre (12-1) came on last fall on Woodbine; graduated on the grass, and returns to that surface off a layoff after two good efforts on the Poly. Versatile and consistent four-year old son of Catienus could add value to the exotics here.

Gulfstream Friday (Updated with Nyra)

In the 4th, Ancient Sunlight (4-1) is back after just three weeks, and that in itself seems significant. Trainer Bill Turner, who lit up the tote with Platinumplus ($53.20) last week, has found it difficult to keep this one on the track; just one of his first six races is not followed by a layoff line. The only exception though resulted in a narrow loss at Belmont last summer. Here, he returns to the grass and drops in class from his previous tries on the green. Two races back, in maiden special company, he lost by just 3 1/2 lengths to the impressive Dynamoor, who we mentioned the other day after his second straight subsequent win. Love the two workouts since the most recent race; looks ready to go with Prado aboard. Perfect Boom (3-1) should benefit from his inside post after a wide journey last time out; likely favorite for Tagg has settled for minor awards two tries this level.

In the 9th, Ermine Slippers (5-1) is another one who has raced infrequently; her latest layoff is three months. She always seems to give a good account of herself though, and should definitely like the return to turf after her last effort on the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park, for trainer Christophe Clement. Daughter of El Prado may also appreciate her reunion with jockey Joe Bravo, who rode her to her two best career efforts, which came after the addition of blinkers. Gets a nice post in a tough field with other main contenders drawn outside. Siren Seranade (3-1) has been beaten as the favorite in her last three, and switches to Castellano today.

- Quite an evening at the Guggenheim Museum last night. For it's 50th anniversary, it staged a three hour performance art piece featuring video artist Danny Perez, and Brooklyn's much-beloved indie art-rockers Animal Collective. Hard to exactly describe, you had to be there on the ramps which ascend up and around the building's massive circular tower; but video projections and light shows were accompanied by an original score composed by the band (which appeared and "performed" in costume, though the music was recorded). The tower was completely wired for sound, and the music literally seemed to swirl around the building. The sound board was visible to the public, and a computer screen showing the potential paths of the music looked like one of those maps of Los Angeles' highways from those old Johnny Carson routines. It all provided for an eerie and captivating effect. Time Out NY suggested that you BYOLSD; don't know if that was quite necessary, though a bong hit or two certainly wouldn't have hurt.

Of course, then I had to go and ruin it all by catching the second half of the Rangers losing to the Penguins while being outshot 24-1 over the third period and overtime!

This is the video for the song Brother Sport, from Animal Collective's 2009 release [Merriweather] Post Pavilion, which you've surely heard of if you checked out any top ten album lists from last year.



UPDATE




Helen Mirren as Nyra, an evil queen of the St. Aegolius Academy for Orphaned Owls, where the birds are actually brainwashed into becoming soldiers...that from the new film Legend of the Guardians. And, you know, it's animated, so that's not really Helen Mirren. More in the comments section.

Strike Three?

Apologies to the NY Post for the headline. The right-wing rag is particularly proud, since it was its own Frederic U. Dicker (credited by name in the Times today) who first broke this story. I'm busy today, but I'd certainly be remiss if I didn't post the Commission on Public Integrity's findings on Governor Paterson's receipt of World Series tickets from the Yankees last fall (and I certainly wouldn't want to be accused of bias!). In any event, the report speaks for itself. As is so often the case, it's the coverup - which in this case, according to the Commission, includes lying under oath (indeed, the Times, in its third consecutive front-page right-hand column on Paterson, notes that the commission had asked prosecutors to determine if criminal charges should be brought) - that is worse than the crime.

Two Sides To Every Story

The Times kept up the pressure on Governor Paterson with another story in prime time on the front page of the print edition on Wednesday. Investigators Are Told of Paterson Bid to Quiet Accuser, reads the headline.

'Make This Go Away'

It's not until you get to page A29 that you get to read Paterson's version.

The governor has begun telling top state Democrats that he had a conversation with Ms. Booker only because she reached out to him to complain that she was being pestered by reporters from The Times.

And there are a couple of articles in other outlets - Daily Politics and the Village Voice - that elaborate on his side of the story.

And I'm not taking that side for now....I just don't know. Nobody does for sure except for the parties involved. The investigation is ongoing. So I'm just saying that just because something is published in the right hand column on page A1 of the New York Times doesn't make it true. As we've seen in the past, and with tragic results.

Gulfstream Wednesday

In the third, Wicked B. Havior (4-1) returns from a ten month layoff for Barclay Tagg. This barn is having a rough Gulfstream meeting, with just four winners from 53 starters. However, Tagg is a solid guy as we know, and these things tend to even out over time. And maybe those two close seconds on Saturday (including Nehantic Kat at 14-1 in The Very One) are an indicator of a turnaround? This seven-year old son of Unbridled's Song was in career best form coming off a two year layoff last year; and his best race was a narrow second to Discreet Treasure in a key race over the track at this mile distance with today's rider Joe Bravo aboard. (And Bravo also rode the horse to two impressive wins in 2006.) Tagg is just OK off the layoff - 12% over 180; and 1 for 15 over 270, though in the money nine times. But steady works and heavily flawed first and second ML choices make him the pick. Hold Me Back (6-5), second in last year's sloppy Travers with his 415 Tomlinson, is 0 for 1 on fast dirt tracks, and has never run in a one-turn race. Our Edge (3-1) has a lot to prove coming off three uncompetitive efforts, excuses in his last notwithstanding.

- Wow, did you guys see the TV ratings for the gold medal hockey game on Sunday? It was the third highest ranking Olympic broadcast, most of those in prime time. That compares favorably to this year's NFL wild card playoff games, according to the NY Times' sports media columnist Richard Sandomir.

And right underneath his column in the print edition of the Times is a story on horse racing - Joe Drape reporting on the animal cruelty trial of Ernie Paragallo. Our sad little sport is still playing defense while the NHL tries to capitalize on the exposure. Of course, we do have our big filly showdown coming up. On a Friday late afternoon.

Blockhead Gov Created His Own Blockbuster

The most incredible thing to me about the latest, and possibly last straw article in the NY Times about Governor Paterson is the timing of the events described therein. According to the story, the governor's press secretary, on his orders, called the woman (still being identified only as such in the Times; no longer in the Daily News) on the very evening that the Times was preparing to publish its first article in the series - the widely-panned piece on Paterson's close aide, and accused domestic abuser - David Johnson. It was on February 9 that Paterson was interviewed by the Times' Danny Hakim, and subsequently bragged that there was no blockbuster story that would cause him to step down, as was widely rumored the time.

It was another week, on Feb 16, that the first article was published, and it contains the following passages regarding the two incidents involving Johnson and a girlfriend, one in 2001, and the one last October:

Asked last week about the episode, Mr. Paterson said he was not aware of it. But the governor recalled a separate episode involving Mr. Johnson and a woman, which he said also occurred in 2001, where the police were called.
.....
The governor said he was aware that Mr. Johnson might have had another problematic encounter with a girlfriend last October in the Bronx. He described it, essentially, as a bad breakup.

So, according to this timeline, Paterson had already been questioned by the Times on the October assault in question.....but then still allegedly initiated the calls to the woman nearly a week later, despite the fact that he knew that the Times was aware of the incident and snooping around. It's hard to believe that he could be that complacent about the paper's intentions. Paterson himself actually created the blockbuster that the Times didn't have. He stepped right into his own poop. That kind of poor judgment goes far beyond the mere political naivete we all agree he is guily of, and into the realm of shocking stupidity. Almost like a death wish.

I had predicted, should it come to pass that Paterson's initial contention that the woman had initiated the contact to him was a lie, that he would be gone within 48 hours. So the clock is ticking on that. But so far, the calls for his resignation have been scattered at best; he even picked up some support from Sheldon Silver....as well as from a group of Latino lawmakers, including Senators Ruben Diaz Sr and Pedro Espada. That should come as no surprise, considering that those two voted against the expulsion of Hiram Monserrate, an actual convicted domestic abuser, rather than "mererly" an alleged coverer-up.

And of course, Paterson, who affirmed late on Tuesday that he will not resign, deserves the opportunity to tell his own story; the accusations are merely ones made in a newspaper. Nothing he will say could excuse his lack of judgment, and it's certainly a fair argument in my mind that it was lacking enough so that he should go. Still, I'm thinking that he's gonna hang on here, at least for awhile.

Late Payment

Governor Paterson said on Monday that the deficit for the new fiscal year which begins on April 1 has "probably" grown from $8.2 billion to $9 billion because several expected payments will be late or not materialize..

His list included a $300 million payment from a slots machine vendor for Aqueduct Racetrack and $200 million from the Battery Park City Authority. [Reuters]

Perhaps Paterson is just being realistic given that Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver (the subject of a scathing attack by Senator Eric Adams on Monday) has said that he won't sign off until the Inspector General is done with his probe, which certainly won't be concluded by April 1.

Indeed, Tom Precious reports on Bloodhorse.com:

Sources, however, said negotiations with the state over a memorandum of understanding for the casino agreement are proceeding. One source said talks were scheduled for March 1 with state officials to try to reach a final deal on various aspects of the AEG contract for the VLT operation. [Bloodhorse]

However, Precious adds, ominously:

There has been growing chatter.....that some state negotiators might be interested in putting off the Aqueduct project until after January, when a new governor takes office.

Oh, man! We could surely kiss our beloved Big A goodbye should that happen. A new governor could very well turn his/her attention to a grander project at Belmont rather that starting this process over again.

That doesn't make sense to me though. I think that this project can still happen with AEG (if they come up with the payment!) - the state really has no incentive to kill it and have to deal with a bankrupt NYRA and a $300 million hole to fill. I also think that this probe by the Inspector General is just bullshit; he's not going to find anything illegal. Dicey, probably, and the Senate Democrats will come out looking the worst (Paterson has no reason to pull any punches in his testimony, does he?); but what concrete evidence of what is he going to find that will kill the deal? A written quid pro quo with Floyd Flake? And I surmise that the feds may become less interested in the matter now that the governor has bowed out of the race. The community is fine with it, as are the local representatives. So this thing should still happen (which of course doesn't mean that it will).

- This piece by James Odato on Capitol Confidential is certainly worth reading. It concerns a "huge, long-term bid award, papered in controversy.....and it did not involve a racino at Aqueduct Race Track." A lot of this sure sounds familiar - a winning bidder being accused of not meeting "vendor responsibility, experience or financial standards;" not to mention having Joe Bruno as its CEO.

- Frank Stronach now says he won't replace the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita. Not because it's gonna get any better of course. Frank won't spend the money (which the bankrupt Magna doesn't have anyway) until the state backs off and allows "free enterprise."

"Let us open up our store when we think we get the most customers.....Let the market decide . . . whoever is going to put on a better show will get the greatest market."
....
"So what?" Stronach said. "We're saying, you can race when you want to race. Are you afraid to compete?" [Daily Racing Form]

Hmmm, sounds like Frank's been smoking some of those tea party leaves. Aren't you glad he's still around?

There Is Silver In You

Well, I suppose it was all for the best. Canada got its damn gold; we wouldn't have wanted to see people try and hurt themselves and be subjected to the horror of government-run single payer health care. Jeez! Y'know guys, we wouldn't have thought any less of you as the prevalent hockey power in the world if you had lost, eh? The silver-medal-winning U.S. team, only a handful of which would even have been considered for Team Canada, played with determination and tenacity and took the home team to the limit, leaving us with a classic moment along the way.

Great job, by the way, by the NHL which incredibly did not run a single ad for itself during the entire broadcast (during which ads were limited to between periods), thus failing to take advantage of what must have been some kind of record viewership for the sport. Hmmm, does that remind you of another marketing-dysfunctional sport?

Meanwhile on Sunday, at Gulfstream, Christine Daae ($2.80) was pounded on the tote from 5-2 ML first time against winners, and first time two turns in the 6th. Biancone's filly, by Giant's Causeway out of a stakes-winning Dehere mare (distaff family of FOY winner Highland Park), is nominated to the Triple Crown.

On Saturday, Sabin winner Aurora Lights ($23) was the second longest shot on the board, but the only horse other than 7-5 Justwhistledixie (the second choice) to have previously won a graded stakes. She's a four-year old daughter of Pulpit out of a Lord At War mare, and she's a half-sister to the multiple graded stakes winner Master Command. She's also very closely related to Dynamoor ($5.40), an impressive winner of the race before on the grass, in which I was positive he was being way overbet first time against winners. Between that and the well-bet first-time dirt horses Radiohead and Amen Hallelujah, a couple of my standard rules did not work out at all...just one of those days as far as I'm concerned. I'd approach those situations the same way every time. The second dam of Aurora Lights is the third dam of Dynamoor; and the latter is a half-brother to the G1 grass winner Honor In War, and hails from the female family of the likewise La Gueriere and Al Mamoon.

- OK, completely off topic, how about a couple of music notes regarding bands other than Dinosaur Jr for a change? Chris Knox is a prolific singer/songwriter from New Zealand who, according to his website, has released 46 albums, both in his own name and as the leader of bands such as Tall Dwarfs, over the last three decades. He's one of those pop song machines who somehow flies totally under the radar; Robert Pollard comes to mind as an American equivalent. But when Chris suffered a debilitating stroke last year, some of this country's top indie artists were eager to contribute to a tribute album intended to help with his medical expenses.

The album, called, appropriately enough, Stroke: Songs for Chris Knox, includes contributions from Yo La Tengo, Bill Callahan, Jeff Mangum of Neutral Milk Hotel, Bonnie "Prince" Billy, Stephen Merritt of Magnetic Fields, Portastatic, AC Newman of New Pornographers, The Mountain Goats, Lou Barlow of....well, Dinosaur Jr. (sorry), and the late Jay Reatard. There are also contributions from some Down Under stalwarts such as The Chills, David and Hamish Kilgour of The Clean, The Bats, The Verlaines, and Shayne Carter of the long-gone but fondly-recalled Straitjacket Fits. Stroke is available in the U.S. on Merge Records.

Four Tet is the nom de plume of the British electronic artist/producer/DJ Kieran Hebden. His latest album, There Is Love In You, is a delicious collection of hook-filled, mellifluous electronica set to cozy dance beats. It's available on the UK label Domino and, of course, at the online download store of your choice. That choice should probably be Lala, where you can preview all of the tracks in their entirety once before purchasing for cheaper than ITunes. (For now, since Apple recently purchased the site.)

The Four Tet video below is actually a few years old, from the album Everything Ecstatic, but I think it's really cool, so here it is: