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Friday, September 02, 2005

Help the Katrina Victims - Bet on Evangeline

- Sunday night’s card at Evangeline is devoted to relief for Hurricane Katrina victims, with all of the track’s proceeds, including those from simulcasts, going to the Red Cross. (I wonder if the host tracks will donate their shares as well.) It’s a great way for us to contribute to the cause in addition to the more conventional means of donating. Thanks to the magic of pari-mutuel wagering, you can win money and still contribute to the cause!

In an effort to assist and encourage your participation, I’ve gotten together with other bloggers, and each of us will analyze and try to pick a winner in a race from the card. Past performances are available on www.drf.com and www.bris.com. (Or if you email me, I’ll email you a pdf file of the entire card.)

I’m doing the second race, a $15,000 maiden claiming affair at one mile for Louisiana breds, with an absoluetly astounding slots-laden purse of $21,200, unbelievable. It’s a bit hard adjusting to seeing mile races that go in 1:44, slower than many races a sixteenth longer that I’m used to seeing around here. Some of these horses are even slower than the relief effort, if you can possibly believe that.

Romantic Love (10-1) is moving up from 10K claimers, having run 4th by 13 3/4 lengths. But the winner was a class dropper who won by 13 at 7-5, and Romantic Love missed the place by just a nose and a neck. This filly has shown a bit of improvement after almost 6 months off, and is moved up in class for her third start of this form cycle.

Touched By Angel (5-1) has raced pretty evenly in sprints this year after showing nothing in 2004. Her chart comments include lines like “lacked significant late response,” and “found best stride too late.” She stretches out and perhaps the extra ground will help.

Reimburse Me (10-1) could win this if she runs back to her form from earlier this year, but her last two were awful, and she drops again seeking her level.

Ray’s Palm Sunday (4-1) returns to a mile on the dirt after a disastrous try on the grass. A similar turf to dirt move earlier this year paid off with a good closing third in maiden specials. Her race prior to the grass try was a dead heat for third, just 2 ½ lengths back, in 20K company. Her dirt Beyers are slower than some of the others. She seems to fit well with this drop in class, but is totally devoid of early speed and will need some help up front.

Paris Pride (7-2) comes off a solid second against cheaper at 5 1/2f on 8/26 and comes right back on the stretch out. In fact, she’s shown a pretty consistent ability to close for a share at sprint distances. She has one try at two turns, an OK 4th place finish against better at Fair Grounds that was not conclusive either way as to her distance ability. Her trainer Ronald Matthieu is hot; according to Formulator, he has 2 seconds and 2 wins in his last 4 starters, 3 of those with similar short turnbacks to the 9 days since Paris Pride’s last race. I love the move up in class too.

Precocious Angle
is the morning line favorite at 5-2 and the only apparent speed in the race. It’s the third race in her current form cycle; both of those were sprints, and she was a good speedy second at 6 furlongs in this class in her 2005 debut. Last year she had two OK tries at Delta Downs’ two-turn 7 furlong route, but this is the first time she’s going beyond that distance.

PICKS: I like Paris Pride, and will try and get some value by keying him on top of horses other than Precocious Angle in the exactas. Paris Pride over Romantic Love and Ray’s Palm Sunday.

For the triple, I’ll throw in the favorite for the second and third spots, but hope she runs out in favor of the other two.

Patrick at Pulling Hair and Betting Horses has a look at the fifth. Ruben Bailey at Your Average Horseplayer has the seventh. And Jessica at Railbird will pick out one of the other races. Thanks and good luck!

1 Comment:

SantaBarbarian said...

what a great idea.