Good News and Second Thoughts

- Christina from Team Belmont correctly points out that I failed to mention the incident at the starting gate that resulted in two scratches and a couple of bruised but otherwise not significantly injured fillies. I guess I was concentrating on the good news, but that actually was good news, because nobody got hurt. There are always going to be accidents on the racetrack, just as there are on the Long Island Expressway, so it’s prodigious news whenever injury is avoided. Of course, that incident, plus Nar’s visually spectacular crash through the hedge prompted one headline writer to declare Horse racing's danger is revealed once again. [Stamford Advocate]

And I see that Christina had Jazil, and so apparently did Patrick on top in the exacta after dismissing him entirely in his last post before the race. Also, there was a reader who picked Jazil in the comments section; but he missed the Pick Four by the neck by which Hello Liberty lost to Bushfire, so let’s hope he made out OK on the 11th race.

As far as my day, I was pretty damn demoralized going into the Belmont. I picked out the two Godolphin horses to stand against in the early races. I knew I was in big trouble after Safsoof won, because betting against him was easily the better case. On closer inspection, there wasn’t much quality in there against Afrashad, and I guess now 3-2 is looking pretty damn good.

I talked wrote myself off of Too Much Bling and Songster and took a shot with Fabulous Strike in the Woody Stephens. Then I was alive in the Pick Three for one race, as Bushfire was part of my spread. The Pick 3’s of the scratched Miraculous Miss and Wonder Lady L were the only things I cashed on all day. But in the Manhattan, I knew I was out with English Channel when I saw Cacique repelling his advances on the lead. I had nothing going on going into the big race.

Then, Sunriver was dead on the board at 7-1, eventually edging down to 6-1, and even though I should know better than to pay attention to that considering all the wacky betting we’ve been seeing in the Triple Crown races, it couldn’t help but dampen my enthusiasm a bit. I ended up essentially with a triple box of the first three finishers – except that I didn’t use Jazil on top. I kinda wanted to bet him – after all, I picked up on him and his stellar pedigree after his maiden win. But I looked and saw a horse with only a maiden win to his credit, a Kentucky Derby effort that didn’t excite me, and a plodding style that we’ve been almost indoctrinated into believing can’t win the Belmont. I swear, 20 years ago, this horse would have been the 3-1 favorite in this race.

Of course, Jazil didn’t use that style, and Fernando Jara may have watched tapes of Jeremy Rose’s ride last year. Perhaps his losing an iron after the start was a blessing as well. If Jara had any inclination to try to get his horse closer, as we had read he was instructed to do, having to pause to regain his iron left him no choice but to ease over to the rail and save ground while just loping along. In the meantime, John Velazquez was caught contesting the leaders five wide on Bluegrass Cat on the first turn. You gotta think that the result of this race could have been different had Pletcher’s horse taken a shorter route around that turn; that was a huge difference in both ground covered and energy expended just there. Still, Bluegrass Cat was tough and game right to the finish despite covering what seems like more ground than the mere length and a quarter he lost by.

But hey, that’s just sour grapes. Props to the winner and to everyone who had him. There was a lot to be said for betting a horse that you just knew would still be running at the end, and other than Steppenwolfer, who just doesn’t have a winning move in his repertoire (at least against these horses), Jazil was the only one that qualified before the race.