Notes - Feb 13

- I must admit that I have a hard time taking Big A winter inner track stakes seriously when it comes to the Classics, so please excuse me if I'm not jumping up and down over the 106 Beyer awarded to Summer Doldrums for his stakes record mile and a sixteenth in 1:42.23 in winning the Whirlaway on Saturday, and defeating 2-5 Lawrence the Roman (more on him below). But those who bet the "all others" in the futures pool at 5-2 must be very excited!

- Mike Watchmaker, in the Form, writes that there's really no appeal in knocking a colt like Notional, who, since getting blinkers, has now won two graded stakes this year in clear-cut fashion. And then he goes ahead and does so anyway.

Even though he broke from an outside post in the Risen Star and was between horses much of the way, he really had a perfect trip. Notional got a strong early pace to rally into, and had only the limited Zanjero to run down in the stretch. And with all of that going for him, Notional still did not run as fast as the filly Appealing Zophie did winning the Silverbulletday Stakes the race before, although the much slower early fractions in the Silverbulletday make final time comparisons between it and the Risen Star a bit tricky. The bottom line with Notional, however, is that the 92 Beyer Speed Figure he got in the Risen Star, and the 94 he earned winning last month's San Rafael, just aren't good enough for him to be considered a more serious Derby threat.

I love when writers present a fact in trying to make a point ("Notional still did not run as fast as the filly Appealing Zophie"), and then, in the very same sentence, explain why it's not really relevant ("..the much slower early fractions in the Silverbulletday make final time comparisons between it and the Risen Star a bit tricky."). In addition, one of the many things I've learned from my readers over the last couple of years is that fillies can be more developed than the colts at this stage of the game.

I also wouldn't exactly call Notional's race a perfect trip, considering how wide he was going into the first turn. And what makes Zanjero "limited?" Because he ran second to Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Remsen (with Summer Doldrums far far behind)? His main limitation in this race is that he circled the field 5-6 wide in a premature move to the front.

Having said that, Watchmaker makes a valid point about his relatively meager Beyers. However, as Walter pointed out, it's no mean feat these days for a California Derby hopeful to win outside of the state. And I thought he showed a lot of professionalism the way he surged through an opening after Albarado had to search for an opening in midstretch.

- Must be a case of seller's remorse.