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Saturday, November 28, 2009

Saturday Morning Notes

Something must be wrong. It's a big racing day for NYRA, and the weather is actually nice! I seem to remember reading a week or so ago about the possible starters for the Cigar Mile, and thinking it was going to be a full field and a wide open betting affair. Instead, just five wagering interests (and only 25 total in the four stakes)....though it is at least a fairly interesting race still. I don't like Kodiak Kowboy (2-1) at all. Still maintain he's a seven furlong horse (in spite of the Vosburgh), and I think he'll flatten out like he did in this race last year. I don't like Pyro either. Because....I just don't, OK? One doesn't have to have specific reasons to not like horses that one just doesn't like. Unfortunately, he's coupled with Vineyard Haven, who can't be dismissed in my opinion. But on the other hand, I'm still not completely sold since his two comeback wins have come in the slop. The entry is listed at 9-5, and will probably be less at post time.

Bribon (5-2) is reunited with Maragh, who piloted him to his close third in last year's Cigar Mile. Take a look at his one-turn mile form at Belmont and Aqueduct; it's a specialty distance for him, while the abovementioned all have some kind of question. Personally, I think he'd be fair value at 8-5; as the third choice, he'd be a major overlay.

Nice to see Stardom Bound back. I loved this filly with her stirring rallies from far, far back. Had her high on my Derby top ten, I'm proud to say. I hope she comes back strong, takes to the dirt, and kicks Whats-her-name's butt next year. That would be cool, wouldn't it?

However, as the 9-5 morning line favorite in the Gazelle, she demands a strong stance against in my opinion. Forget the layoff, and the fact that the co-owners hate each other. Even if she came into the race in fine form, she'd still be a total question mark in her first race on dirt after eight on various artificial surfaces. I will leave her out entirely, and use Mott's impressive Unrivaled Belle over Flashing, Milwaukee Appeal, and the improving Multipass instead.

By the same principle, you might want to take a look at Citrus Kid (6-1) in the Remsen. Neither Homeboykris (7-5) nor Buddy's Saint (4-5) have been around two turns while the appropriately-named Citrus Kid (Lemon Drop Kid - Orange Ice) won a mile and a sixteenth stakes at Delaware.

In the Demoiselle, Tizahit is rated at 4-1 for trainer George Weaver. I've followed this barn here from time to time as you may know, and we've seen him go on streaks both hot and cold. After his fine Saratoga meeting and an OK start at Belmont, he went stone cold, with just one win in 37 tries. However, recently, he's had a couple of wins from eight starters; in addition, My Man Lars was third by 3/4 at 6-1, and Molly Molly Molly was a tough luck 4th beaten only one length, at 10-1. He also had recent close calls with Monument Hill (3rd by 3/4 at 13-1) and Neversaywhen (2nd by a neck at 5-1). Tizahit has had two excellent tries around two turns, including a second in a Delaware stakes which has produced two subsequent (very) minor stakes winners. Forget the 4th in the one-turn Tempted, gets the money today in this entry-level allowance disguised as a Grade 2 stakes. Good luck and have a great day.


Anonymous said...

Wonder if they will draw anyone?

For the reasons you outline this is actually a decent betting card despite the small fields, all the favorites appear vulnerable.

Too bad they did not link them in a P4. After some of the horrible guaranteed P4's at Belmont this Stakes grouping deserved a shot, even with the small fields.

El Angelo said...

Best horse to run on last year's Cigar Mile card was a 2yo making his career debut: Quality Road.