I know I've been an infrequent blogger of late, and now we're going away for a week; our annual island paradise trip, and the one on which we don't bring laptops. Of course, I do have my new smartphone, on which I made my first mobile internet bet this past week. So I could check in if inspired if there's some wireless around. I guess now I could have a Twitter account too....maybe to organize mass protests against the New York State Senate. We could occupy Empire Plaza and demand that the National Guard takes over.
I am hoping that things at my income-producing job will ease up and allow me to have more time to write for nothing. (Well, almost nothing other than my one paying sponsor.) I actually did have time the last two nights to look at the Aqueduct cards. But, after liking four races on Wednesday (including Private Rules ($16), I came up blank. I wonder if it depends more my state of mind at the time, rather than the races themselves. Hopefully I'll have the time to explore that and other utterly fascinating matters - and maybe even get to that Derby thing - upon our return in a week or so. Now I have to pack. Feel free to use the comments section as an open thread, but please be nice!. And have a great week.
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Friday, February 18, 2011
On Vacation
Posted by Alan Mann at 7:15 PM
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48 Comments:
Any opinions on the Risen Star?
Plenty of early pace should set up a closer in this wide open affair, and despite most prognostcators touting the lightly raced Machen and BC veteran Rogue Romance, I am leaning toward Santiva (ML 6-1).
Mike Smith ships in to take the mount which besides being a sign of confidence by the connections also hints at a new rating tactic.
Should get the first jump on the more touted deep closers.
I want a lock Discreet.
Dirty
I don't go down that road Dirty, you know that. But i do like this one quite a bit...
Fair Grounds - Race 10
#6 Machen (6/1 ml)
Neil Howard colt broke last in his debut but then moved up powerfully to sweep to the lead around the turn and draw away impressively in solid time. Stretched out to two-turns last time and sent off at 1/9 against an overmatched field, he broke slowly again and was caught in traffic for almost the entire race, clearly full of run but having to sit and wait behind the slow-pokes before squeezing through a small opening around midstretch and then powering away late. Very talented colt, who is laughably listed @ 6/1 here, apparently because his Beyer dropped into the 70's due to the snail-like pace (and resulting final time) that he had no control over. Big value at even half that price; looks like a good one.
So Dialed In gets a boost.
RG
Went off @ 2/1 and ran fourth. Appeared to be traveling quite well into the lane while still covered up, and I thought he was going to win if he found an opening. Eventually was able to shift outside into the clear (a little later than I hoped), but didn't show the kind of explosiveness I was expecting as he flattened out through the final sixteenth. Disappointing.
Im not above saying he was the best Dc... Broke slow, caught off heels while a little rank early, angled out 4w home and wasn't disgraced. Looked like the fucking jock was sleeping at the break. I missed your post, and wasn't gonna fire at 2-1 anyway, but maybe he drifts to 80-1 or more in the futures (he's listed).
d.
True that, RG.
Oh.. And Joel Rosario is the best jock in the nation.
Dirty
Santiva, widest of all on both turns with Smith, no surprise there, was closer to the pace than I hoped but ran on gamely to be second best.
Winner had a conditioning edge, and Santiva should move forward off this one so might be better of the two long term.
Tossed Matchen when he opened at 1-1 inserting MMM (best of the speed) on my ticket instead and caught the generous $282 trifecta.
Not bad but would have been a huge day if Santiva won the thing.
Both Dialed In and To Honor and Serve were flattered today.
Think this might be a terrific crop if they stay healthy, of course.
Lookiing forward to The Factor tomorrow.
Anyone know if Nyrarewards has the Derby Future bet?
Figless-Nope
FA-
I know you were big on The Factor, and I was keen on his race for other reasons (Cook Inlet, who I presume is waiting for 2 turns). He ran a fucking smasher today, the horse who tried to go with him was done after 2 furlongs, undefeated riveting reason was done, and it wasn't like the closers were making up ground on the whole. He looks very strong, hopefully he develops a little rating skill, huh?
I bet Sanai small, but I absolutely crushed the race before when Evening Jewel's little sister won easy @ 4-1. Also, I think Bill Spawr might need his horses drug tested soon - he's on fire right now.
Dirty
I was impressed by The Factor, but frankly he didn't show anything new today. I'm more than a little concerned (as is Baffert, apparently) about his chances of stretching out effectively. And even if he does, he's liable to be sacrificed on the altar of the Derby pace. I hope i'm wrong, but i just don't have a good feeling about him. In all honesty, i think Baffert would've been better off shipping him to Dubai for the Golden Shaheen.
PS - I thought Sway Away looked pretty interesting today. Helluva nice peformance, and a helluva big stride he's got. Might stretch out pretty well, and he's got some earnings. Possible dark horse.
Actually NYRA did have the bet but you had to call and speak to an operator, on line platform could not handle 24 entrants I suspect.
Put ten bucks each on Santiva and Astrology at big odds just to have some action, both have have 10f pedigrees and a right to develop between now and Derby Day.
I am impressed by the Big Four, believe this is a talented and deep crop for a change, but strange things happen on the Derby Trail. 3 of the 4 are confirmed front runners that need to prove they can rate, and Dialed In is a deep closer, so far. That could leave it open for a stalker to enter the picture and my two could fit the bill.
Hope a few of them square off somewhere along the way, most logical spot is the Wood M since the FLA trained trio appear to be taking different paths.
Side note, love the fact that SA went to dirt, the West Coast Derby trail actually seems relevant this year.
Somone got down on Jaycito in the Futures pool, he closed as the 5th choice behind The Field, Mo, Dialed In and Brethren at 21-1.
Training great for Baffert and I guess he Juvenile can be forgiven due to the rough trip, they obviously believe he can handle dirt.
The Factor closed at 25-1 because his race occurred after the close, I would not take that right now.
In fact I am unhappy that both my horses took late money, Santiva at 37-1 is certainly no bargain.
DP, finally watched the replay and yes Sway Away was closing with big long strides over apparently a very speed favoring surface.
I'm gonna bet Seachi @ 3-1. He was 20 lengths best last out.
Dirty
Maybe before round 2 of the Derby Futures, NYRA will alert us on the rewards website that they take future bets to help dumb guys like me who don't think to call.
Yes it would be nice for them to advertise this wager.
I only called because I remembered for a fact that they took the wager on track last year.
But redboarding my selections and their closing odds I almost wish I'd forgotten.
Brutal beat for the Jp-man saturday at FG. I decide to key on Dubious Miss in the FG 'Cap at 8-1. I play him on top in exactas, but even heavier in 2nd. I use wrap like 5 other horses around him, including Expansion (back class, assmusen back at FG). So the race is like a dream. Dubious Miss tracks the slow pace of Workin For Hops and slowly begins to wear that one down as they hit mid stretch. Meanwhile, here comes Expansion at 32 to fucking 1, on the outside and he's wearing down Dubious Miss. I've got this Exacta boku times and it's gonna pay enough to put my kid thru college. But then the stupid-ass five horse switches out and nails Dubious Miss on the line and I win Squadouche. I guess in retrospect the five horse had a rough trip and might have been best. But still...Ouch. -jp
anon 9:10 am
Just watched the replay. Are you sure you lost?
RG
That's the crazy thing, dude. I thought I won the goddamned photo! Absolutely brutal. I'll bet the governor of louisiana had money on the 11-5 exacta or some shit. Worst beat of my life. -jp
You here folks complaining about tough beats all the time, that should be the definition.
Looked home free and even after the race you can still argue the photo.
I was bitching at the time about the ride on Sleepless Knight who I need in the multi race pools, but will stop complaining now.
The 2011 Travers winner made his debut this past Saturday, his name is Bind and he went 1:08 and change at Fairgrounds blowing away a MSW field. He was visually very impressive ( the beyer boys agreed giving him a 100+ figure) and unlike other speedy colts of his generation ( i.e. The Factor) this one wants two turns ( Pulpit out of an unbridled mare). In the capable hands of AL Stall, hopefully they don't push this one to make the Derby. He should be a monster by Travers Time.
Gw
Fig -
You sure you don't mean cloudy's knight. That was the worst ride ever. But that's what I deserve for betting female jocks.
Dirty.
New DRF piece indicates The Factor is headed to the Sunland Derby. Makes sense, i suppose.
naw, meant sleepless, the 5 mare that got up (maybe?) to beat out jp out of the big the exacta.
not familiar with cloudy night.
DP - Is Sunland Derby graded now?
If not guess Baffert is really not aiming at the real Derby.
It's a Grade 3.
Incidentally, the horse who won it last year looked pretty solid in doing so, but he ended up missing the Derby due to some type of physical problem. He had the earnings to get in.
Gulfstream - Race 2
#2 Silver Cloud (3/1 ml)
This Rahy filly debuted at a big price for obscure connections last time out, and surprisingly shot out to the lead over a quick colt named Escort (that one had previously dueled with Crossbow through some very fast splits @ Aqueduct). Led almost the entire way before getting beat just over a length at the wire, and the race has come back very strong, with the winner Free Entry returning to score vs. allowance company, and the two horses who finished directly behind Silver Cloud (Simbamangu and Escort) returning to run 1-2 in a maiden race on Saturday. Unfortunately, this rider (Arce) is currently 0-for-26 at the Gulfstream meet, but that will undoubtedly help the price here (as will the low-profile trainer DaCosta), and despite the 0-for-26 Gulfstream skid, Arce is still hitting at a decent 8% for the year, so he is capable of riding a winner. He was also on board for this colt's strong run last time, and of course Silver Cloud figures to be fitter this time around. Looks pretty strong with his keen speed and the key-race angle working for him, and the connections should help him go off at a playable price here.
I'm alive in a big time double to Judge Joan in the second @ SA. The horse could run up the track, but I heard a little rumor this one is well meant.
Dirty
Aqueduct just became the 33rd cancellation(thoroughbred)for the month of February. With the weather forecast across the country we'll probably see 40 cancellations for the month. So much time wasted on handicapping.
RG
RG, you need to spend a bit of time handicapping the weather :-)
Looking for prices in today's three year old races at GP, no time for full analysis but here are the selections
R9 - The Huch - 8-7-3
R10 - FOY - #2 Gourmet Dinner, boxing with To Honor And Serve, against Soldat who has to prove that big fig was not a fluke.
Outta Here, good luck today.
Gulfstream - Race 3
#6 Nacho Business (4/1 ml)
Kelly Breen colt came running strongly late in his debut (at one mile, no less) to to draw away from Bowman's Causeway, who himself finished 7 lengths clear of the rest of the pack. Nacho Business was then flattered when Bowman's Causeway came back to win next time out, and note that Bowman also happened to be entered in the Fountain of Youth today. This horse has since come back with 3 straight bullet drills, and based on the late strength he showed in his debut, he figures to stretch out quite nicely. Looks set to run well here at a square price.
Nacho Business ran second.
Btw, did anyone else notice the late odds-drop on Soldat in the Fountain of Youth today? He went into the gate @ 2/1 (while not even the favorite), then came out the other side of the gate showing 7/5. How in the hell does a horse drop past 9/5, 8/5, and 3/2 in the span of about 20 seconds, in a race as big as the Fountain of Youth?
He then went on to win the race, of course. Reminds me very much of the situation with Monarchos in the Florida Derby around 10 years ago. That one was even more crazy (from 7/2 down to 8/5 in the last minute, i think), but they're still pretty comparable.
Yep, I remember when Monarchos' odds plunged during the running of the Florida Derby. I was surprised to see Soldat go off favored. One of those useless preps, with the type of race shape unlikely to take place in the Ky Derby. Obviously THTS was a short horse, but man he really spit it. -jp
After the race Mott was quoted that they KNEW Soldat really wanted a fast track.
Apparently they backed this belief at the windows.
My choice Gourmet Dinner ran a nice seconod with no pace to close into, without my money as I did not want him at 3-1.
Did box with To Honor and Serve who ran too bad to believe, hope not but suspect something if wrong unless he just hated the attempt at rating.
DP - I didn't get to see the Nacho race. Looks like he was victimized by pace. Do you think he was the best and was about to go by - a horse to follow for next time? Thanks.
He looked to be traveling well around the turn but was caught behind horses, i thought he just needed some room. He was able to get out, but didn't move like i expected him to at that point. Looked like he was flattening out a bit. He sudddenly started coming well late though, and it looked like he might get up, but he ran out of ground. I think perhaps it was an illusion based on the fact that the winner was stopping, and you might note that the race was run considerably slower than the FOY, which was run at the same distance. Whatever the case, it certainly wasn't a bad effort, and not something that can be held against him, especially stretching to 1 1/8 miles i only his second start while tackling winners for the first time. I'll look at the replay again before his next start, but those were my inital mpressions.
Thanks, DP. On some other boards, I've seen people denouncing Bravo's ride.
Discreet wonders how so much money could come in on Soldat and Figless quotes Mott as knowing Soldat wanted a fast track. Then in yesterdays NYT Mott is quoted as telling Velazquez "Don't try to do to much." Andy Crevolin the owner of 1954 Derby winner Determine got banned from some tracks for admitting he didn't always try with the horse. I would think Mott should be brought before the stewarts and explain.
RG
Crazy as a Fox tomorrow at anything close to 20-1.
Dirty
My question isn't so much how Soldat went favored, but how he dropped from 2/1 to 7/5 in the last 20 or 30 seconds of wagering. There was already a ton of money in the pool at that point, and it would've taken a small fortune for Soldat to bypass 9/5, 8/5, and 3/2 as the horse stood in the starting gate.
I dunno about that. It was To Honor And Serve's first start as a 3yo and anyone who follows the game knows there's a dang good chance a horse in this spot isn't going to be fully cranked.
Any opinions about the Big Cap. People are gaga about Sydney's Candy, but can someone hook him early? -jp
When Alan gets back he has "splainin" to do on the Rangers.
I am done trying to beat Sidneys Candy, laying off today, so he will probably lose.
Note I did not quote Mott, I just referenced a quote in the DRF.
Billy and I are not on speaking terms :-)
all the talk about the drop in soldat's odds. How about the $13 exacta. Where did that come from?
Did not even handicap the SAH, just put ten bucks accross the board on my old freind Setsuko for the hell of it and got beat a nose at 26-1. Close beat hurt at first, but my pain was partially eased when the minus show pool resulted in a $25 payout for show!!
Boxed the TRI in the Gotham with longshot Norman A, thought Pletcher should have come down for the clear foul. Hate the "did not effect the outcome of the race" concept, how do they know that for sure???
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