Perfect Spot for Caleb's Posse

In the Dirt Mile, Caleb's Posse (5-1) cuts back to one turn in the race I think they've been aiming for since the summer, when, intentionally or not, trainer Donnie Von Hemel found what appears to be this horse's calling. Turning back from a series of mostly (though not completely) unsuccessful route tries, the three-year old son of Posse did benefit from a pace collapse when he stormed past the field from last in the 6 1/2 furlong Amsterdam at Saratoga. In the 7 furlong King's Bishop however, he ran down a resurgent and resistant Uncle Mo, getting the final furlong of the seven furlong affair in 11 4/5 seconds in a determined effort. The two-turn Indiana Derby seemed a strange choice after those two efforts, and I think that those who backed him at 2-1 that day weren't reading the past performance lines.

Now, again intentionally or not, Caleb's Posse cuts back to one turn five weeks after that 3rd place effort, exactly replicating the pattern leading up to the Amsterdam win. He faces a very nice field, but one in which the prospective front-runners, The Factor (7-2) and Shackleford (7-2) are, in my opinion, unsuited for this one-turn route, and likely to set up a pace scenario favorable for his late run.

No doubt he faces some talented rivals in addition to the two mentioned above. Wilburn (4-1) is undoubtedly sharp and on the improve, but has excelled at two-turn routes. Trappe Shot (3-1) is the fastest horse in the field based on Beyers and Sheets; but he seems a bit of an enigma to me. He was brought back this year as a six furlong specialist, and disappointed in his last two, whatever the track bias excuses may have been. Now he stretches out to a mile. May very well like that, as he has won at 1 1/16 miles, and he figures to get a nice stalking trip behind the front-runners. Will use on the tickets, but this seems like the wrong place for experimentation, and he's well worth standing against on top as the favorite here.

Caleb's Posse figures to be a very square price with a couple of familiar names in here. While I believe he's established that closing in a one-turn "sprint" is his best game (while acknowledging that he is stretching out from his two Saratoga wins; and betting that he'll, in fact, relish the extra ground...he has won, after all, as far as a mile and a sixteenth), I think that his rivals, as talented as they may be, are all attempting something unfamiliar. My best bet of the Breeders' Cup.