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Saturday, September 15, 2012

Belmont Saturday

In the 1st, Yannick (12-1) is a first-time starter for Barclay Tagg, who also trained his sire, Standing Up.  As you may recall, that one emerged from the shadow of Barbaro (both owned by Gretchen and Roy Jackson) to become quite the star performer on the turf.  He won three graded turf stakes (two Grade 1s) at three after the Derby,  including the Secretariat at Arlington.

Only raced once after three though, and stands in Ontario for $5000 (Can).   I guess that's not really the best place to ply his trade these days with slots revenues slated to be cut off next year.  Just five of his 52 foals have made it to the races, with one winner; but Showing Up himself never raced at two.   Yannick is out of a dam by Nureyev, and he's a half to a multiple turf stakes winner in Martita Sangrita.  So, worth a mention here, if not an official "pick" (unless he wins).

In the 2nd, Big City Boy (4-1) goes third time of the form cycle for trainer Jason Servis, who continues to be live with almost every horse he sends out here even if the visits to the winners circle have come less frequent of late.  Switched to this barn, 3yo son of Read the Footnotes added blinkers and romped off the layoff against weak maiden claimers; he then acquitted himself well first try against winners.  Found himself wide chasing a hot pace on the turn outside of the formidable B Shanny, and still showed interest at the end just missing for third and earning a nice figure.  N.F.'s Destiny (3-1) comes off a layoff following a win in his debut for Linda Rice....and wouldn't you know, I mentioned her here on Friday morning and she won two races, in the second case edging out her Karakorum Legend, my pick from yesterday, with her uncoupled Awakino Cat ($14.80).  N.F.'s Destiny beat what has turned out to be an OK field, could take some catching, but I'd be wary at that price off the layoff first time vs winners.  Greeley's Law came from the clouds to upset at 54-1 in a performance fast enough to beat these should the pace fall his way.

In the 5th, just a mention for first-time starter Mudflats (12-1); you may recall his trainer Eddie Kenneally popping Fly Again, a 25-1 debut runner, last Sunday.  Mudflats is a 2yo colt by Tapit out of a Tale of the Cat mare who's a half to stakes winner (on grass) Langston.  He has inbreeding to Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and the influential mare Narrate.

In the 8th, the wide open G2 Nobel Damsel, Christophe Clement (5-1-2-1 thus far after a strong Saratoga meet) has a pair, including Federation (5-1).  Four-year old filly has been a handful early in her recent races, getting an 'under a snug hold' comment on a regular basis.  Think you can upgrade her last couple of efforts - two back, she was severely impeded throughout most of the stretch run before bursting through late to miss by a half.   Her last was an easy allowance win in which you can surely say she didn't beat much, and maybe didn't run so fast; but she was eased up in the late stages and won with plenty in reserve for her return to stakes company "only" 19 days later; should serve as a nice tune-up.  La Cloche (10-1) ran some big numbers two and three back here at Belmont and could surely bounce back from a disappointing effort behind a couple of these at Saratoga in which she had no other apparent excuse.  Silver Screamer (5-1) has good early speed which should serve her well here and goes well fresh for Rudy Rodriguez.  I could go on....tough little heat.   Best of luck and have a great day!


Figless said...

Interested to see how many "fans" show up at Belmont today for a very solid card in beautiful weather. As for gambling:

Race 7 is a real nice entry level alw with potentially two new stars in Graydar and Sir Bond, as well a future NY Bred "Star" in Saratoga Snacks.

Snacks should keep Graydar busy on the front end stretching out, which should set it up for first time Asmussen trainee Sir Bond's late run. Graydar may be a superstar, but going to have to prove it to me. Fun race, as are the two Stakes that follow.

There was an article somewhere noting all the Euro pedigrees in the Noble Damsel (R8), but with the hard turf course I am leaning toward the Americans in this rendition. La Cloche's best figs are good enough to win this, and guess what, her best figs all were earned locally. She is just a different animal at Belmont, and should be live here over her best distance at a decent price. However, with not much pace signed on I am leaning toward Silver Screamer, who either encountered some sort of physical difficulty or just despised rating tactics, or both, in her last. Freshened for Rudy, believe Espinosa is going to let her roll today and she might just last the mile on the front end. As in her last Dealbata will likely find the mile a tad too short in what may again be a blanket finish. Another fun race.

Race 9, The G1 Garden City, is also competitive but Samitar jumps off the page at me, first time Lasix and Chad Brown, should move forward off her American debut and that should be enough to earn her the victory and a trip to the BC here. I have been chasing Somali Lemonade for what seems like ages, if she finally gets a clean trip she will be tough, but at some point one has to realize perhaps the horse creates its own problems and is destined to continue. Even so, she will be in my exacta and at the right price may again play to Win.

Good luck

steve in nc said...

Figless, I'll jinx your pick by agreeing with you about Sir Bond. His win got a big Sheet #, in part because he was so wide. A one # horse, but if he's close to the ML, definitely worth a stab. Graydar has to also prove he can rate and close.

La Cloche has 1 alumninum pad on; I'm off. Actually, I was never on. I think the two Chad Browns will be tough, firm turf or no.

On the other hand, I think Samitar had every chance last out and was not the strong horse in the stretch. I can't thrown him out with first lasix, but prefer higher prices on the Euro from the rail and the Del Mar shipper from the 2.

I wouldn't keep chasing Somali if I were you. I don't think she'll win until she gets class relief and then you'll get no price. Good luck regardless.