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Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Morning Line First Impressions

Some quick first impressions of horses I think would be fair value at their morning lines...at least for the races I'm considering playing, which are those other than any of the 2yo races, the Marathon, or the Turf.

Nahrain (6-1) - Filly and Mare Turf.  Last year's runner-up had a disappointing Euro campaign this year, but showed vast improvement when reunited with the evil Lasix in her game Flower Bowl win.

Love and Pride (8-1) - The Race FKA The Distaff.  Followed up her upset win over Royal Delta with a win over the track.  Bettors will be all over the latter after her overrated Beldame win...how can you not like this one if she's 8-1?  Presence of Questing means she'll have to stalk, but she's done so and won before.

Fed Biz (6-1) - Dirt Mile.  Two-for-two over the track and distance, and has shown the ability to stalk and win, which will surely help in this race filled with question marks.  I'm all in against Shackleford in any event; and John Scott (12-1), though it may be that he's simply a synth horse, would be worth a shot at that price too.

Jimmy Creed (6-1) - Sprint.  Actually was hoping he'd run in the Dirt Mile, so just a quick mention here.

Mile - Moonlight Cloud (6-1).  Endured nightmare trip against Excelebration in August, and only lost by a length and a half.  Always-trying filly has really come to hand at age four.

Classic - As stated previously, not worth staying home for on a Saturday night.  Another commentary on how I feel about this field is that I'm actually tempted here to mention Mucho Macho Man (8-1).   Note that Pool Play (30-1) is two-for-two on dirt surfaces.




3 Comments:

Anonymous said...

You might want to head out early on both days ( aside from Moonlight Cloud ):-)

Alan Mann said...

^^ lol, might not be a terrible idea. Just takes one nice score though, assuming one doesn't feel obligated to bet every race.

ljk said...

I think Mucho Macho Man is very interesting.

In the Distaff - How many times do you see a race full of speed have most of the pinheads take back. My vote is for Questing to go to the front and keep running (though not in a straight line).