A Happy Blue Grass Result

I'd mentioned on more than just a couple occasions how I thought that stakes run on synthetic are meaningless as Derby preps and shouldn't count as qualifying races.  So maybe I should eat those words before writing about how very pleased I am with the result of the Blue Grass, propelling Palace Malice and Java's War to the big race as it did.  Doesn't change my opinion in principle with respect to strictly synth/turf horses that qualify by winning those races.  However, in this case we have two horses that have shown ability on the dirt using a synth race to get in.  So, in this case, I was wrong in calling it meaningless as a prep, as both horses will likely be a factor for my approach to the race, though in completely opposite ways.

Palace Malice was my pick in the Louisiana Derby and was traveling quite well when he ran into the thicket of traffic that completely doomed his chances.  So, his second place finish in the Blue Grass not only earns him the points he needs, but gave him a useful race from which he should benefit....if, that is, three weeks isn't too short a turnaround for him.  He didn't run that fast according to Beyer, earning a figure of 89, if Beyer figures on the synth really mean anything in this context.  Have to say I'm highly impressed that he ran so well - wasn't around for the race, but never would have bet him at those odds.  Just don't think that turf/synth is going to be his best game.  And I'd love to see a horse with - gasp - four races this year including one three weeks out win this thing.  Maybe would serve to help change the current less is more mindset.  So, this is a horse I'll definitely be looking forward to seeing how his works shape up as we approach Derby day.

Also glad to see Java's War win as he did.  Just the kind of deep closer that the betting public usually loves.  Man, that 14th-to-1st running line is sure gonna look tempting as he stretches out to a mile and a quarter.  However, as opposed to Palace Malice, I'm not at all convinced that dirt will turn out to be his preferred surface as opposed to turf/synth.  Sure, he also closed impressively in the Tampa Bay when he came on for second to Verrazano.  However, that surface can be a quirky one, and my experience is that horses running well there seem to fare OK on the Keeneland Poly.  His other dirt race, at Churchill in last year's Kentucky Jockey Club, is inconclusive; an even 6th at a flat one-turn mile.  I think his pedigree leans towards grass.  He's a son of War Pass, out of a mare by Rainbow Quest, a daughter of the French and UK champ Blushing Groom (to whom he's inbred 4x3), who is a half to the grass champ Fiji and the French Group winner Capri.

This is not to say of course that Java's War can't win if he gets a clear path.  But the point is that he indeed will need a clear path, especially give his tendency to dawdle at the start; and will require everything to go his way in the 20 horse field to get one.  Definitely the type who I think will be overbet in relation to his chances, perhaps grossly so, and I will be excluding him from the top spot on my tickets.