Belmont Monday (Early)

As per the comments section in the last post, it's a beautiful Memorial Day, and the grills will be fired up in backyards around the country come the late afternoon.  Which means that I, and many others, will not be at the track or front of the TV come 5:45, post time for today's Met Mile.  I remember, back in the days when there were actually - gasp - regularly scheduled single admission doubleheaders in baseball, the Pirates used to start theirs at 10:30 AM so that fans could catch a couple of games and be home in a timely manner.  That time seems about right to me as the first race post time on a day like today.

However, that not being the case, let's have some fun and try a couple of longshots in the early races at Belmont today.

In the 1st at Belmont, Noosh's Tale (10-1) goes second off the layoff for trainer Pat Kelly, a low percentage but quite capable barn as we've mentioned in the past.  Sent off at 41-1, jockey Alex Solis had to work his way out to the widest path upon turning from home, and having lost any forward momentum from there, rallied nicely to finish less than a length behind Toy Cannon (5-2) and Gossip Column (5-1).  This son of Tale of the Cat earned an excellent figure with my numbers in a 2yo stakes race last year, and seems excellent relative value, with a smoother trip, to turn the tables on those two who figure to go off at significantly lower odds; value play.  In any case, With Exultation (9-5) was a well-bet winner in his debut for Christophe Clement and figures to be the one to beat.

In the 5th, Rakin Gold (12-1) returns off a 148 day layoff for trainer Dominick Schettino.  I'm looking at the trainer's record in the range of 110 to 185 days (25% around the length of today's layoff), and though I don't see any wins, he's 50% in the money over the last three years with a couple of very close seconds....so I'm gonna say that his horses are generally well-prepared in this scenario.  Her last two efforts before the layoff, on dirt, are horrendous; but this horse has some nice turf efforts, especially the two that were not on a yielding course.  Her maiden win came in a key race at this distance on this course, and she was caught wide both turns in a subsequent mile allowance race, earning, in both races, figures, with my numbers, well fast enough to be competitive here at a big price.  Satin Sheeks (7-2) had some nice grass form last year and returns off a 345 day layoff for the proficient layoff barn of Mike Hushion.  Morning line favorite Omelia (5-2) had no apparent excuse as the favorite in her last, succumbing to the uninspiring and poor speller Mah Jong Maddnes; move outside to the 10 post here is no help.    Best of luck and have a great Memorial Day.