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Thursday, July 04, 2013

Belmont 4th of July

In the 4th, Moonlit Sonnet (8-1) tries grassy state-bred stakes company after an eventful first try against winners.  She dropped far further back than usual after being bumped at the break - "lost action" according to the chart caller - and came with a fine rally for second to repeat winner (in open company) Pure Amour.  That experience should serve this filly well in a race with a couple of speedballs in Discreet Marq (2-1) and Roses for Romney (3-1).  And it was a solid move forward on my speed figures.  Trainer Lisa Lewis may have just three winners from 17 starters at the meet, but virtually every horse she has sent out has been live, with four 2nds, three 3rds, and only one of them finishing worse than 4th.  Daughter of G1 turf winner Shakespeare out of a Woodman mare who descends from the family of G1 turf winner Both Ends Burning would seem to have room for further improvement in her sixth career start.  Discreet Marq comes off her win in the G2 Sands Point, her first start for trainer Christophe Clement, is strictly the one to beat and I'll use her on top to save.  My pace figures give her an early edge over Roses for Romney, though no doubt she's gonna get pushed but that filly.

In the 7th, Mah Jong Maddnes (7-2) cuts back to seven furlongs and this should be right in her wheelhouse.  She won at this distance on this course, and first off the layoff, two races back in a fast race, beating next out winner Ornellia.  That was accomplished with a closing running style that she seems to evolved to starting last fall.  She stretched out to a mile in her last and found herself on the inside surrounded by rivals.  Irad Ortiz Jr seemed to have little choice but gun her through to the lead when presented with the opportunity around the turn, and she faded late.  Don't think that's what they want to do with this filly; so looking for her to bounce back at the shorter distance and turn the tables on Lawless Miss (5-2), who defeated her soundly that time.  Normandy (9-2) is first off the claim for Jacobson; oh, boy.  Not only that, she figures to be lone speed should the rail horse not take to the turf.  However, as we mentioned presciently the other day (and how tough a trip did Image of Noon have), turf sprints are not this barn's specialty.  The extra furlong shouldn't help either.   And Jacobson is in a mini one-for-14 "slump."  Best of luck and have a great holiday!


Anonymous said...

How about returning the Suburban Handicap to it's traditional place on the July 4th Belmont card? Run it as one of the races in the Late Pick 4. Green Mtn Punter

steve in nc said...

Sorry your choice in race 4 is scratched.

Here's a stab in race 1 using the lifetime workouts feature of Timeform US:

The odds-on chalk, Escapefromreality, didn't have a workout for more than two months after clipping heels in his last and finishing up the track. So I think he was injured.

He returns now after just 4 workouts, the last one turf. But he's entered on dirt, so the connections are searching for the key to him. He had a much longer consistent worktab before winning his debut.

Looking at his lifetime workout tab, he was a gelding (gelded before his first race) who had two long breaks between attempts to get him to the races the first time. So he's got longstanding issues, some mental, and perhaps, physical.

He's been passed late a few times, albeit by some good horses, and 7f can be a tough grind, especially for a horse that needs one. At 2-5, I think he's worth betting against.

Unfortunately, he doesn't face much here - Marriedtothemusic, who would have been a solid win play, is scratched. And an all-firster race 2 takes me out of multi-race plays.

Pending post-parade appearances, I'll stab with Ambassador Bridge back & forth with the chalk and hope he gets up late.

Hollie said...

This is awesome!