Wood Day (Early)

I did some of the early races on the Wood card and now I'm going out, so this could be it.  I also previewed the Bay Shore on the TimeformUS blog, and wrote about the Wood in these two posts here.  That race will ultimately be a game time decision based on the tote.  But I am enamored with these NY-breds as I've said.  I also did a preview of the Ashland for TFUS.  But if my Horses in Focus at Keeneland on Friday are any indication, you should probably stay far away from that!

In the 1st, Denzel (3-1) has improved since being claimed by trainer Rudy Rodriguez.  There's a surprise for you.  Cuts back to a sprint after trying two turns for the first time in his 14 race career. Prior to that was a sharp second, missing by a nose (to an uncoupled stablemate) from well off the pace at Laurel, at this seven furlong distance.  That race has produced three next-out winners.  It also featured a hot pace, and a muddy track. I know he's not getting the latter, but he could possibly get the kind of pace he would need.  The 5 and 6 horses have good speed, and Jacobson has a couple entry including a speedy steed in Stealth Steed.  And try saying that four times, no less ten.  Thing about this field is that none of them have won at the distance, and most of them have been going shorter most of the time.  So I see some weary horses in the final eighth, and Denzel, with the best late pace rating in the field, should be coming at the end.

In the 4th, Starship Captain (3-1) makes his first-ever start on the main track here, for Contessa.  He claimed this 5yo last month, moved him up in claiming tag, ran him back six days later and scored a game win, earning a TFUS speed figure of 94 which is better than any recent number earned by any of these.  In his last, he was three wide in futile pursuit of a leader allowed to set a slow pace, and faded. And we have the track that day rated as very speed favoring.  Pace Projector has this as a slow pace as well, but we have issues with the projected leader, Pleaseandthankyou (5-2), who was uncharacteristically lethargic coming off a layoff and now, after an additional 76 days, drops in class. Extra half-furlong could be a question for Starship Captain, but I think 3-1 is about fair.  And Wilmer Garcia, in the saddle for the win two back, returns to ride here.

In the 5th, Chilton (6-1) is an interesting one, returning three days after his first off the claim for trainer Michelle Nevin.  Over the last year, she is one-for-six, and three times in the money, with horses on running 1-7 days rest.  This 5yo gelding has been racing mostly long, but he won two races back when he cut back to six furlongs for his prior trainer, Bruce Brown; earning a TFUS figure of 88 which is quite competitive here,.  In that race, he tracked a pace which we have rated as fast, and went on to win by three.  Has some pretty good turf sprint efforts in his back form too.  On Wednesday, he debuted for Ms. Nevin in a flat mile, and showed early speed before fading to 4th. We'll see if he really goes, but surely this sharp barn sees some good reason to do so if he does.  Here Comes Tommy (5-1) has earned figures in his last two that can take this race.