Yearling Buyers Adjust

- Some more anecdotal evidence of Poytrack having an effect at the Keeneland sale. Maryjean Wall, writing for the Lexington Herald-Reader, asked Bob Baffert and Nick Zito if they're taking a different approach.

"I am looking for a different kind of horse. I'm starting to look for a horse with a little more turf influence," Baffert said yesterday at Keeneland. "I'm looking for horses that have a little more stamina."

Ditto for Zito.

He was covering all bases when he paid $350,000 for a son of Smarty Jones out of Carly's Crown, buying the colt for My MeadowView Farms.

"I'd say this family can run on dirt or grass," said Zito. And in the new order imposed by synthetic surfaces, "You have to approach it that way," he explained. [Lexington Herald Reader]

I imagine that some people are saying 'see, it's starting already!' They speak as if the breeders that own the currently fashionable sires have some inherent right to guaranteed future success. We hear about the millions they have invested in them. But stallions are assets, and assets go up and down, just like the stock market or real estate. That's business, and, though I'm certainly not unsympathetic and I wish them all success, I don't see why breeders would warrant any special protection from business cycles. The successful breeders are the ones that can anticipate; that can pick out the first-year sires that will be fashionable in two years, or the $10,000 bargain that can produce fast horses to race. Fashions change, and if it wasn't Polytrack, it could have been something else, and the top breeders, I'm sure, will adjust. That's why they're the top breeders.

It's quite possible that in ten years, Polytrack will have become an obsolete joke, like Smell-o-vision. In the meantime, perhaps it will indeed cause a shift to a more sturdy breed. I've yet to hear anyone tell me what would be bad about that.

A.P. Poly

- Sounds like synthetic surfaces are starting to become a factor at the big yearling sales. Today's the first day of the September Keeneland Marathon, and the early returns feature - surprise - the usual suspects. As of this writing, the Sheikh and Coolmore have led the way by spending $2.4 and $2 million respectively for two sons of AP Indy. (Well, until a half-brother to Pulpit, by Dynaformer, went to the Sheikh for $2.9 million.) And interestingly, John Ferguson, representing the Sheikh of Dubai, had this to say about his purchase, out of a Group 1 winning Storm Cat mare:

"Quite honestly, a horse like that by A.P. Indy with an outstanding mare in Denebola, who not only was a great mare but the fact that she won the Marcel Boussac (Fr-I) in France on the grass. You know with this advent of Polytrack, I think in the past you were maybe looking at A.P. Indy with an all-dirt pedigree. I think, now an A.P. Indy with turf on the bottom won’t do any harm.” [Bloodhorse]

Ferguson added that the colt will stay in the U.S. And while his English may be a bit mangled here, it seems as if his point is that an AP Indy with grass in his distaff pedigree may be more attractive than in the past due to opportunities to race on Polytrack in the U.S. I know that some breeders talk as if they're going to go out of business tomorrow because of the synthetic stuff; but any change will certainly be a gradual one and, as in this case, not necessarily to their detriment.

If it floats your boat, you can actually watch and hear the proceedings live on the Keeneland site here.