Just Six

- Wow, just five opponents for Just Zip It in Sunday's $100,000 Schenectady Stakes; if, that is, the track is not washed away by tomorrow's expected arrival of Hanna, which is expected to drench this area between really soon and Saturday night. Three of those are fillies and mares that she defeated when she ran third in the Union Avenue; another is Light Tactic, who came back on to edge Just Zip It by a neck for second after forcing the pace between horses inside of her, and altering course top stretch; that in her first start since January. The last one is Under Serviced, from Baffert. This daughter of Hook and Ladder is 3/4 lengths from being unbeaten in her four starts. She's making her first stakes start, but note that her best race came in the mud, which I'd guess is a possibility, even at 5:15 on Sunday. Even though she wired the field in her last race, I think she's better suited to sit behind if Just Zip It and Light Tactic duke it out again.

Just Zip It however took the worst of it at Saratoga, a full three wide all the around the turn. Here, she should at least have inside position on Light Tactic, who breaks from the stall outside of her. The purse is $100,000, and I think it's fair to say that she has an excellent shot to get at least a portion of that. She's never been worse than third in her nine starts, which include a NW3X open optional claimer as well as the aforementioned stakes.

I mentioned yesterday how Del Mar Futurity winner Midshipmen has been dull on the board for both of his starts for Baffert. On Friday, with just over 4,000 on hand at Belmont for opening day of what has become my least favorite NYRA race meeting of the year, he took the second with his first-out two-year old Ventana; 5-2 in the morning line, he paid $12.40 as the 4th choice. He's a son of Toccet, the first-year stallion son of Awesome Again standing for $12,500 in Kentucky. Ventana is his 6th winner, but his 4th since last Sunday. So if a sire can be on a roll, this one is.

Elusive Bluff was a first-out winner, on the grass, at 32-1 for Bill Badgett in the 4th. He's a two-year old son of Elusive Quality out of a Pine Bluff mare, and plenty of turf pedigree here. He's inbred 4x5 to Sir Ivor, his second dam is by Cozzene, and the second dam of the sire is by Hero's Honor. Trainer Pat Kelly was second with 8-1 Insider; recall that we picked up on this barn being sharp with its grass runners late in the Saratoga meet. So we'll continue to watch him, especially if there's any grass racing here before next spring.

H. James Bond went the entire Saratoga meeting without a winner until closing day when he had two. How many times have we seen that recently? Seth Benzel had his first two winners on the first day, and Kimmel had three after going 1 for 20. Bond won another won on Wednesday (not three in a row however) when Turnupthevolume took the 7th at 12-1.

Odds and Ends

- Florida's Pompano Park harness track has established a new rule restricting the use of the whip.

New to racing in North America, the rules call for drivers in any type of race to never be allowed to put the reins in one hand in order to strike a horse with a whip at any time during the race.
.....
Penalties start at $100 for the first offense, but there is also an additional ruling that allows for anyone found to be whipping a horse excessively at any time to be fined up to an additional $1,000 and be suspended from competing and/or ejected from the property. [US Trotting Association]

However, a commenter on the USTA's new Harnessphere social networking site (something I imagine the incredibly passionate and hardworking folks on the NTRA Online Task Force may want to look at), wonders if the penalties have enough teeth.

Are you telling me that getting close to the wire in a stretch duel one of the drivers is not going to one handed whip to get the win? I don't think the $100 fine will even be a thought in his mind. But disqualify the horse and you know he's not going to do it. Plus it is UNFAIR to all who bet the other horse and now lost their money because in essence the driver who beat them cheated.

Think about it!!!!! [Harnessphere]

- Like Saratoga, Del Mar's attendance and handle numbers were down; no surprise there given the economy, and especially so considering that last year's universal ADW experiment was not repeated this year.

What I'd personally be more interested in is to get the statistics on fatal injuries suffered on the Polytrack surface. Curiously, while Del Mar said the amount of overall catastrophic breakdowns “were also lowered," it has not released any statistics. Who's running their press department, Dana Perino? If anyone has any information on that, we'd all love to hear about it.

We were told that the starters-per-race held even from last year at 8.6 horses per race, which may (or may not) dispute a notion I'd heard that horses had been "beat up" on Hollywood's Cushion Track. Again, we hear a lot of vague rumors and whispers about soft tissue injuries and other so-called "non-catastrophic" injuries, and I continue to wonder why nobody seems to want to come out and say anything definitive or present some statistical and anatomical evidence of that.

I turned on TVG last evening, and I was really surprised that they didn't have the A-team out in full force with their on-site reporting and Christina Olivares and the like for closing day. I can't really figure that network out sometimes....I mean, it's not like they have much to do between now and the time that Santa Anita opens. I have to be honest that I just haven't watched TVG much lately anyhow. They generally do good work when they are on-site. But usually, the times I turn it on they just have the sleep-inducing talking heads on from the studio. I could easily go back to Time Warner Cable and live quite comfortably with the NYC-OTB channel. I don't get the prime winter tracks on TVG anyway. Without those, I'm finding its usefulness to be extremely limited nowadays.

I wrote the other day about how I pay attention to how first-timers from major barns are bet in their debut when evaluating them the next time they race. So I was skeptical of morning line favorite Midshipman (Unbridled's Song) from the start since he was 11.80 to 1 when he won his debut for StonerSheikh and Bob Baffert. So you can only imagine how much I didn't like him when he was comatose on the board for the Del Mar Futurity; the 3-1 morning line favorite, he went off as the 6-1 4th choice! Glad I didn't bet this race, as he edged out, appropriately enough, Darley's Coronet of a Baron.

The next time these two run, most likely in the Grade 1, $250,000 Norfolk Stakes at Santa Anita's Oak Tree meeting on Sept. 27, they will both be flying under the Darley banner. [DRF]

Notes - Sept 4

- I love to follow trainer streaks as you know, but, on Monday, no way in the world was I going to have Premium Gold, the 7th winner in a row for trainer John Kimmel. For one thing, hot is hot as we know, but at a certain point it gets a little ridiculous, and I thought that was the case at five! I actually liked the ones on Saturday and Sunday, and would have made some money if I didn't bet the races stupidly. But Premium Gold, who paid $25.60, was just beyond the pale. He'd lost by 27 lengths to favored Discreet Treasure (I knew Discreet Cat, and you're no Discreet Cat), in his last race. That was on an unsealed good track. This horse has shown that he doesn't like off tracks, but I personally don't usually draw that much of a distinction between a harrowed good track and a fast one. Besides, Premium Gold ran his best Beyer on such a track at Belmont.

Not only did he win, he dominated from start to finish. Pretty amazing stuff. The meet's top trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, told the Form: "Another 10 days and Kimmel might have passed us." I think it only would have taken about a week. David Grening here points out that McLaughlin had five two-year old maiden winners (all of whom are either going or have gone directly on to a stakes), and I imagine there's more where that came from for Belmont.

Let's do some red-boarding on the Hopeful (in which Kimmel's streak ended when Break Water Edison ran 4th). Here's a case (another case if you put Premium Gold in the category) in which the matter of off vs. fast tracks seems to have been overlooked. It's one of the most basic principles of handicapping in my opinion, in the same category as judging a turf horse trying the dirt, or vice-versa. Vineyard Haven whistled in his debut, on a fast track at Calder, but then ran third, four lengths behind Desert Party, on a Saratoga track which was muddy. Yet Desert Party, who had run on only Arlington Poly and that off track, was the 3-1 second choice for the Hopeful, finishing sixth, while Frankel's colt paid $20.40. Perhaps if we were not already on our way home......

This is one of the ways in which I do better when I just wing it with the Form at the track rather than study extensively beforehand. Slop vs. fast track is a basic which I would depend on more in shotgun handicapping, as opposed to when I sometimes may get carried away when juggling too much information and overlook what's staring me right in the face.

Frankel is a part-owner of Vineyard Haven, having purchased him privately after his debut win, and now he sounds ready to flip him for a quick windfall.

I know we’re going to be getting some good offers on him now because he won like he’s a really nice horse. I think we’ll keep him, but it depends.” [Schenectady Gazette)

I get the feeling that some owners may be using two-year old pari-mutuel races as virtual under tack shows with a quick sale in mind. If not, in this case, the Champagne could be next.

Vineyard Haven is the first US stakes winner for two-time Woodward winner Lido Palace, standing for $5,000 in Florida.

- I broke about even for the long weekend, thanks in large part to having the 4th race triple on Monday ($111 less far too much invested). The horse which crushed me for the day/trip was Linda RaceRice's Dressed to Win in the 6th, ironically the horse who scratched to give me the conso double on Thursday. I loved Allen Jerkens' Whirling Agatha as a longshot for the exotics, so I woulda shoulda coulda had the exacta and triple with he (at 20-1) underneath Cobblestone Way on top had Rice's horse not stuck around.

- The jockeys seem to like it thus far. But we've heard that before. So let's wait and see.

Saratoga Notes for Labor Day!

- Curlin may not have drawn a big crowd, but the cooler giveaway drew an announced one of almost 59,000 on Sunday. Of course that number was inflated by spinners, but I can tell you that the crowd seemed significantly bigger; and I didn't even get there until the late Pick Four, when people had already started to leave. Next time, NYRA should allow multiple admissions and allow people to see Curlin multiple times in the paddock. Maybe that would do the trick.

John Kimmel now has five consecutive winners in the past three days after being 1 for 20 on the meet; and the fact that I ended up profiting on neither Remarkable Remy ($17.20 on Sunday) nor Freedom Bay ($20.20 on Saturday) just attests to my weakness as a bettor. Kimmel has the morning line favorite in today's 2nd with Gem For Hook (2-1).

Former assistant Seth Benzel finally got his first winner with Ya Think ($8.30), and he liked it so much that he had another in Walkabout Winner ($9.40), a NY-bred son of Aldebaran (and a half to stakes horse Rahy's Appeal) making his first start since November. Benzel (no entries for Monday) will probably win his next five in a row the way these things go sometimes, really!

In Speight Of It ($25.60, 2nd race) is the 7th winner for first-crop sire Speightstown, now third on the rookie stallion list by earnings. Just A Coincidence was second at 3-5 off his second to Munnings; and note that the latter is the morning line favorite in today's Hopeful.

I originally expressed amazement when I saw that first-time starter Devotee won the 6th at 21-1 for Darley. That's against all of my principles of watching the tote board, especially for a Darley homebred daughter of Elusive Quality out of a half-sister to Folk. But then I recalled that Unbridled's Heart paid $29 winning his debut for the same outfit. That colt was then switched to Godolphin and has lost his two subsequent starts at 4-5. I still believe that the betting on debut runners, especially from major stables like this one, means something, and I'll likely strike a skeptical pose when we see Devotee next.

Shug McGaughey (no entries for Monday) closed out his Saratoga meet without winners on the weekend, but his horses are way live and definitely worth following when racing resumes downstate on Friday. Imperial Council, mentioned here on Saturday, looked like he was on his way to victory that day at 20-1 before getting collared late by Hello Broadway, Barclay Tagg's half to Nobiz Like Shobiz. That cost me what would have been a meet-making Pick Three, as I threw out Lucky Island in the Forego because I totally knew he'd get pinched back and eliminated at the start. On Sunday, Receipt was well-bet in the 8th for Shug and rallied strongly for third, missing second (and an exacta for me) by a neck. And Vacation was a solid second at 5.90-1 in the Saranac.

Mani Bhavan (Storm Boot) went wire-to-wire at 7-10 in the Spinaway, but I'm not yet checking out the futures pool for her in the Juvie Fillies. She got her final furlong in a Curlin-like 14 1/5.

Well, it's closing day, and we, along with hundreds/thousands of others I'm sure, are packing up and cleaning out our little vacation home to turn back to its rightful owners. They actually showed up here unannounced yesterday under the guise of raking up all the apples that have fallen from the tree onto the driveway, but I think that was about as sincere as the Republicans pretending to care about Gustav. However, their home was in one piece, and Eileen always makes a good impression, so they went away happy. For now.

No advance handicapping for today's card as we've been very busy. This remains the key question of my handicapping - the matter of whether to spend hours studying in advance, or just winging it with the Form at the track. I just tend to get bored and distracted when I've already made most of my handicapping decisions, and I end up going off horses, second guessing myself, and getting discouraged if I have nothing exciting in mind coming up. On the other hand, I love the spontaneity of thinking on my feet, believe in the power of first impressions, and, besides, it worked just fine for me years ago. But then, I lack the edge I obtain on my competing horseplayers (as in, you guys!) - the little things like trips noticed on replays, horses coming out of key races (or not), or recent trainer trends that I'm not aware of offhand.

In any event, today I'm out of time and have no choice, so I'm running with it. Should be able to get the Head Chef and Eileen to hang for about eight races or so before they get edgy and want to leave. Funny, six weeks and hundreds of races have passed, but those eight races today, even without having looked at them, feel like an entire universe of opportunity at this moment early on Labor Day. It's that daily unbridled optimism that makes this game so irresistable, for horsemen and bettors alike. In any event, it's 1-5 that we're going to have a great day no matter what happens at the windows. Hope you have a good one too.

Saratoga Saturday (Updated)

- In the first, Por Favor (4-1) drops in class and returns to a two-turn dirt race for trainer John Fahey III after a futile try in a grass stakes at Canterbury. This is a seven-year old with 64 lifetime starts, but it was only this past May that he started to be stretched out consistently. His two races around two turns at Churchill were quite good, earning solid Beyers in races that turned out to be productive ones. Not much speed inside of this one, so expect good position for Robby Albarado. Hawkinsville (5-1) goes first off the claim for trainer Bruce Brown, 3-3-2 with his last eight in that category.

Trainer Michael Trombetta is in town today with Eternal Star for the Forego (a race which I think has too much talent to simply defer to likely favorite Lucky Island); and he's also brought a couple of other horses along to drop in class in search of a) a win, b) to get rid off, c) both of the above? In the 4th, T.J's Posse (7-2) stretches out to seven furlongs after returning off a layoff with a wide, fast closing third at Del Park. The barn is 25% in the second off layoff category, and the horse has some back class with a second place finish in a Zia Park stakes last year. He's never failed to fire around one turn. Wesley Ward, a ridiculous 8 for 21 at the meet, starts Chief Talkeetna (5-2) after claiming him for himself from Ken Ramsey off an extremely long layoff and sharp drop in class off a maiden special at Gulfstream by 5 in Jan 07 which earned him a 92 Beyer and probably a mention in a Haskin Derby Watch column too. Has he started those for next year's Derby yet?

Just a note about the 5th - the two morning line favorites, Jamaludin (5-2) and Moore Miles (3-1), both come out of strong heats. Jamaludin, shipping in for the resurgent Toddster from Arlington, took an allowance there from which the second and 4th place finishers returned to run a close 1-2 in a subsequent race of the same class. Moore Miles, second at this level on this track to McLaughlin's Great Emperor, defeated Big Wig, a winner next out with a 90 Beyer, and Osceola Prince, who returned to win at this level as well.

Pletcher has the morning line favorite in the 6th with first-time two-year old French Action (2-1), by Action This Day out of a French Deputy mare. The barn got off to a flying start in this category, with four early winners. But it may be worth noting that he's 0 for 16 since High Cry won on 8/7 - eight of those at odds of 3-1 or less.

That's it for now - gonna get cracking on the rest of the card and I'll report back if anything strikes my fancy. No, I'm not betting against Curlin, but I'd take a shot against Lucky Island. I know, nothing too exciting here, but I'm finding it a tough card to sink my teeth into. DiscreetCat has some thoughts on the 8th, so I hope that helps.

Cashed one ticket on Thursday.....but it was a consolation daily double when Dressed to Win was a late scratch in the 7th. I'd successfully singled the Dale Romans entry of first-timers in the 6th. 8-1 morning line, they were a solid 3-1 on the board. This was strictly a tote play, with a little bit of 'good first-timer barn' mixed in. Is there anything sweeter when you bet a coupling and Durkin goes "the entry is 1-2" as they pass the eighth pole?

$100 even for Be Smart in that day's 9th for Lukas. This is a son of Smarty Jones, and this looks to be his 4th winner from this, his first crop. Be Smart is out of a Unbridled mare who's a 3/4 sister to the Wood winner Buddha.

How about the Toddster, battling back with two winners on Friday to cut McLaughlin's lead to one? And it's a funny game sometimes - John Kimmel, 1 for 20 on the day coming into Friday, scored with three winners, including two consecutive (and well-bet) first-timers. Close Encounter is the fifth winner for rookie sire Friends Lake. Timber Reserve, the 2007 PA Derby winner, rebounded from two hideous running lines for 2008 to win an awful feature in which I couldn't make a case for no one. But he sounded like an easy winner according to the race chart, as he coasted to the finish line while being struck thrice on the shoulder. That's surely the first time I've ever seen the word thrice in a race chart, and I hope it was merely the whip with which he was struck.

[UPDATE: A couple of points to add about the 8th. As DC mentioned, it's a tough heat. Besides Tagg's colt being a half to Nobiz Like Shobiz, you have Zito's Ruler's Vision, a half to War Pass, and Mott's Pious David, a troubled third in his debut, a half to Blue Grass winner Monba. Speed Limit looks like the best of the ones who have already run; he made a very wide move on the turn after a stumbling start, and can thus be forgiven for flattening out and settling for second to Asmussen first-timer Kensei.

Another which I won't ignore is Imperial Council (12-1), first time out for Shug. This barn has been very sharp with its two-year olds at this meeting. Consequence was a debut winner at 6-1 last week; two others, Persistently and Gone Astray, ran good thirds at long odds in their debuts and then each won their second time out. Imperial Council has some solid works, and outworked stablemate Consequence on 8/16 and 7/26. This colt is by Empire Maker (just 2 for 65 with debut runners thus far), out of a stakes winning Thunder Gulch mare.

Haven't come up with anything for the Forego. Lucky Island sure looks tough, but there are some tough seasoned sprinters in here. Eternal Star has come on strong, for Trombetta; likewise Bold Start, and we know how well McPeek has been going; First Defence loves this distance and has two seconds in graded stakes over the track; Forefathers is fast when he wants to be; and Premium Wine is capable of picking up the pieces if things get too complicated up front. I think I'm going to limit my late Pick Three single to Curlin. Best of luck and have a fantastic day!!]

Saratoga Notes

- Two more winners for McLaughlin on Wednesday, breaking the tie and vaulting him to the lead in the trainers standings over the Toddster. Majestic Blue was his second debut Darley two-year old winner in two racing days after Regal Ransom won on Monday. Nice price ($8.40) too, as the fans instead went for the Baffert first-timer Mayor Marv, third after a troubled trip at 9-5. Majestic Blue is by Forestry out of a Seeking the Gold mare, and descends from the illustrious distaff family of the blue hen mare No Class, her third dam. She's the dam of Canadian champions Classy N Smart, Grey Classic, and Smart Classic, and the granddam of Dance Smartly and Smart Strike.

McLaughlin also saddled Stream of Gold, who showed his class dropping into claimers and mowing down the field after a rough trip. But they didn't think they were going to sneak this one by Ken Ramsey, even with the 60K tag for this seven-year old gelding, did they? The barn seems likely to pick up another winner in today's first with Caesar Beware (6-5), perhaps owner Zabeel Racing's way of helping their trainer take the Saratoga title. He returns to the 35K claiming level at which he dominated in his last, and I'd expect he could be wearing Ramsey's colors for his next race.

I've mentioned trainer David Duggan a couple of times, but he's largely flown under the LATG radar, partly because of horses like Cagey Girl, who won the 8th at 22-1. Like some of his other winners, I just couldn't make this one, moving up to a state-bred stakes. Duggan, a former assistant to John Kimmel and Eoin Harty, now has six winners from just 15 starters, and an average win payoff of over $25. So maybe I should be paying closer attention.

I obviously liked Yield Bogey ($16.60) in the 9th since I picked him here (and thanks to those of you who recognized my effort in that regard). I mean, I thought he could outrun his odds, but this was ridiculous. This four-year old gelded son of Langfuhr was a total handful for Jean-Luc Samyn from the beginning as noted by Durkin, and methinks that the rider could have taken the wide route and gotten the job done. Instead, he tried to save some ground on the turn, and found himself in what seemed to be an impossible box in the stretch. You could see the horse's head turned sideways as he and Samyn struggled to get through. Don't know quite how he did it and there was quite a bit of contact along the way. But he managed to edge through, getting the final sixteenth in 5.72 after an eighth in 10.99.

Quite a sharp horse, and trainer Pat Kelly obviously bears watching. In the 7th today, he saddles Talbots Shopper (15-1), back to the grass and a sprint after an ambitious stakes placing. Prior to that, she graduated against bottom basement maiden claimers. She may still be in over her head here, and I hesitate to pick her on top; but I'll certainly be using her in some fashion. Kelly is also seeking a spot for Evening Attire, entered again today as a MTO, but he'll likely have to wait again.

Heading up to Saratoga shortly on this sunny morning. Not much red meat for advance handicapping on this card with four two-year old races with first-timers galore, the aforementioned opener with McLaughlin's favorite, a lackluster overnight stakes, and the annual dreaded steeplechase stakes in the body of the card (race 8, yuck). The 10th however is a wide open claimer on the grass. This race features several horses moving up in class off a win; tough heat. But how about a flyer on Fairytale Story (15-1) for trainer Phil Serpe? This is one barn which I touted before the meet, but which has not had a productive Saratoga, with two winners from 21 starters, and many losers at low odds. This mare comes off a lengthy layoff, but note that she's won twice under very similar circumstances before. Whatsmore, Edgar Prado was aboard both of those times, and he returns today.

That's it, time to hit the road, speak to you next from the Spa.

Saratoga Staycation

- Remember way back around five or six weeks ago when we were discussing the prospects for the Saratoga meeting? I thought that the effect of gas prices and the weak economy would be too much even for the Spa to overcome. Some of you disagreed, and argued that the town and the track would benefit from people taking 'staycations.'

Of course, the awful weather during the first two weeks makes it hard to draw any conclusions. Besides the disappointing attendance figures, everyone who I spoke to who was up there during that time said that the town was dead. But the weather has improved since then, and business during Travers week was good.

Attendance was up 3.3 percent comparing the fifth week of racing this year with the fifth week of racing in 2007, according to NYRA. On-track betting was also up 2.6 percent comparing this past week with the same week in 2007. [Schenectady Gazette]

The numbers remain down overall. But NYRA is hoping for a boost on Saturday, which has officially been proclaimed Curlin Day by Mayor Scott Johnson. Charles Hayward told Sherry Ross of the Daily News: "If we got less than 30,000, I'd be disappointed, as long as the weather holds up." I imagine that he's nervously tracking the progress of the remnants of the pesky Fay as it moves north, as am I.

Anyway, our trip to Saratoga for which we leave on Thursday morning is actually a perfect example of the staycation model. We'd been considering a trip to Europe this fall, but the airfare and exchange rate were just too much. Instead, we went in with a couple of others, took advantage of one of those last minute specials and rented a house in town, just a couple of blocks up the street from the main entrance to the track. The cost to us, including a couple of tanks of gas, is just a fraction of that of our scuttled plans. The Head Chef's brother and sister-in law, her good friend Eileen, and two teenage girls will be on hand. They're all curious enough about the track to devote one day to it, probably on Saturday. The pressure will be on me that day for sure, and I hope they don't have their hopes up.

Otherwise, I should be able to slip away and walk over to the track as I please.....make it to the harness track one night (at least) too.....and still be on hand for all of the delicious home cooking that's sure to ensue. So I suppose that it would be greedy of me to hope for a winner or two?

- Just Zip It is doing fine, and is slated for the Schenectady Stakes, another state-bred affair at six furlongs, at Belmont on September 7. Rap Tale earned an anemic Beyer of 62 for her allowance win at Philly Park. Yikes. She hated the track according to jockey Kendrick Carmouche, but dug in managed to get the job done. Trainer Bruce Brown has nominated her, at no cost, for the Twin Lights Stakes for three-year old fillies, at Monmouth on Saturday; it's a nine furlong grass race, and I'll let you know what he decides.

- Another franchise extension for NYRA, this one until Sept 28. However, Paul Post reports in the Thoroughbred Times that meetings were held with state officials earlier this week, and that Hayward expressed hope that the deal will be sealed within a couple of weeks.

“We need to get out of bankruptcy. It’s costing us $80,000 a day in interest fees and bankruptcy charges. We’re very close to a deal.” [Thoroughbred Times]

No word, of course, on the Aqueduct racino.


- In the 9th on Wednesday, I'll take a shot with Yield Bogey (10-1), for trainer Pat Kelly, and jockey Jean Luc Samyn (1 for 41). This barn is always good for some nice-price winners up there; Kelly's two winners, from 26 starters, at the meeting thus far were 10-1 and 8-1. It's been three weeks and ten races since then, but he's been in the money ten other times, and got close recently with first-timer Pynaformer, a close third at 17-1, and Upper Gulch, who missed by a nose at 11-1 on Sunday. Yield Bogey actually has very similar form to the latter, coming into this a few weeks and a solid string of works following a disappointing performance at Belmont. A return to the form of his June 14 effort, in which he closed for second in 11 flat and earned a competitive 78 Beyer, could put him in the mix here.

- Full day of work on Wednesday, tickets for the Yankee game at night, off to Saratoga Thursday morning, and uncertainty over the internet connection upstate.....so happy Labor Day (and Curlin Day) everyone if I don't speak to you until then! But I probably will.

Monday Night Notes

- I'd mentioned Monday's 4th at Calder, and what a race that turned out to be; worth checking out if you can (replays available at Calder's website, if you register for free). Neither Two Double nor Hall of Famer would budge an inch in a stretch-long duel. Stride for stride at the sixteenth pole, you can barely make out that there were two horses. Hall of Famer got the nod, and I think he may have kept a bare nose in front for most if not all of the drive. He's the Clement first-timer by Grand Slam, and that makes ten winners for his dam Quimper, at least according to the Form's sibling summary. Pedigree Query lists eleven, including Hall of Famer. Either way, that's a lot of production.

The winner paid $16.60, and it's not too unusual for Clement to pop one at a nice price. You may recall he had Megadeed at 12-1 at the Big A in November. Pletcher's first-timer Sir Dynamite, 3-1 morning line for Stonestreet, was nearly 8-1 at post time, and trailed throughout after a sluggish start. I dunno, maybe it's just me, but I think it's valuable handicapping information when you see this horse the next time with the 7.90 odds in the running line, to know that his morning line was 3-1. I asked about morning lines in the pp's on Crist's blog, and he dissed me big time. I know I probably take the tote board too seriously. But I think his being 7.90 to 1 means something different if he was 3-1 morning line (making him cold stone dead on the board) as opposed to if he was 10-1.

Friday Morning Notes

- A really bad spill in the 5th at Belmont on Thursday resulted in the on-track euthanization of two horses. I don't want to watch it, so I'll just link to this graphic account in the NY Post if you're interested. John Velazquez, who was thrown from several mounts at Saratoga, and Javier Castellano were taken to the hospital, but both are said to be basically OK by Ed Fountaine in this article; but we'll keep an eye on that.

Whatsmore, Fountaine reports that Tiz Wonderful suffered a life threatening injury during his second place finish on Wednesday after which he was vanned off. Add these to a fatality on opening day, and the meet is not off to a good start at all in that respect.

But life goes on. I'm afraid to pick any horses here given my dismal recent record, but I guess one has to get back on the horse so to speak. So here are some quick pix for today: Double Dinghy Day looks like a solid favorite in the first for Frank Alexander (Castellano named to ride). He won his last, defeating Going Day, who came back to run a close second for my man Graham Motion, and moves up in class off a steady string of improving figs.

Let's try him in the early double with three in the second other than the top two morning line choices. Contessa is hot; he had two winners on Thursday and five on the young meeting thus far. Tinted Moon drops in class after an even 4th behind two well-bet first-timers and a Mott; her prior was a nice close this claiming level in the slop at Calder. Whirling Agatha goes out first time off a solid string of works for Allen Jerkens, who won with first-timer Merchant Marine at 11-1 on Thursday. And Carl Domino is one of those guys who has been knock-knock-knocking at the door. In the last two days, and with his last two entries, he's been second and third - both first-time starters in maiden claimers like this, and at long odds. Chaysin' Alex was second at 59-1 yesterday. Here, Always Enchanting (12-1) also makes her debut and does so off a similar workout pattern to the others.

And I like Too Risky in the 7th. He takes a big class drop for the capable trainer Mike Miceli off what are all really solid efforts against far better. He had no shot whatsoever in a quickly run affair at Monmouth in his last, and always tries. I love drop downs like this. Good luck and have a great day!

Handicapping From the Bottom Up

- We learned over the weekend that Tom Ainslie recently died at the age of 89. His Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing is the first handicapping book I remember reading, and I'm sure the same is true for many of you. Andy Beyer told the Form:

"He was the first person to really write literately and intelligently about handicapping, and he showed the publishing world that there was a market for thoughtful books on the subject."

I had already learned the basics when I first read the book, so I'm not going to say I learned everything I know from it. Some of his principles I've incorporated into my handicapping to this day; probably many more than I now realize after all this time. A couple I specifically recall are looking for a workout of at least five furlongs in the last seven days for horses coming off a layoff; and the last race easy, previous race good factor.

It was Ainslie who introduced to me the idea of watching the win pool in relation to the place and show pools (I only watch the latter); over the years, that has proven to be certainly the most consistent way in which I've successfully identified live horses on the tote. And it was also he that prompted what was the most significant change in my approach to handicapping in my not-so-illustrious horseplaying career.

And that was to handicap from the bottom up. I used to look at the most recent race first and then go down towards the oldest ones. I don't believe he wrote about this in the Complete Guide, but I distinctly remember that it was Ainslie who convinced me to start with the most long-ago race and move forward. That way, he said, you get a sense of the history and progression of the horse and obtain a better perspective with which to attempt to project what it will do today. It was such a simple and logical suggestion, but a totally radical change from what I was used to. It took some getting used to, but since reading that I have never handicapped a horse any other way. Now it's only right and natural; when I'm really focused I try to put myself in the owner/trainer's head, follow the logic of the horse's placement in each successive race, and try and figure out what they have in mind for the current one. Do you guys all handicap this way?

- EZ Warrior and Tiz Wonderful turn up in the More Than Ready stakes for three-year olds at Belmont on Wednesday. Baffert's colt has had a tough return to the races this year. Yes, he's had trouble at the start both times, but it seems as if he's been placed extremely ambitiously (but was nonetheless made the 7-2 favorite against older horses in the G1 Crosby). Though he finds a softer spot, he stretches out to a mile. Not sure what they've had in mind with him this year to be honest. Tiz Wonderful also returned in an impossible spot, and was actually 9-2 against Street Sense in the Jim Dandy. (Well, he did show a win against Any Given Saturday in his last race at two.) He checked out after being wide both turns, and should acquit himself better on Wednesday. Not much of a betting race, but an interesting matchup between two horses trying to recapture their juvenile form.

Babies at Belmont

- The second at Belmont on Friday is a two-year old maiden race with just five entries, all of whom are fillies making their debut. They are racing for a whopping $52,000, as purses have been hiked for the last three weeks of the meeting. Good move by NYRA to try and head off the short fields that are usually pervasive over the last couple of weeks of this meeting as the focus turns to Saratoga. In general, be wary of horses racing here now, as they may really be prepping for a larger objective upstate.

Back to the second; Pletcher has the 7-5 morning line favorite in Crosswater. This is an Overbrook homebred by the mighty Storm Cat, 17% with first-time starters. Crosswater is out of a Forty Niner mare, and is a half-sister to stakes placed El Nino. The dam is a half to the juvenile champ Boston Harbor; and the second dam, by Vice Regent, is a half to the great champion sprinter Groovy. You know the drill with the Toddster and first-timers; and his percentage of 29% with debut juveniles at Belmont over the last two years betters his overall average of 24%. So don't be surprised if he's bet down to his 7-5 morning line.

But keep an eye on Phantom Income. Here's one of those juvenile sales horses who far exceeded his sire's stud fee after a quick breeze. This daughter of the Florida sire Montbrook ($15,000), sold for $200,000 after flying a furlong in 10.1, a tick off the show's best. She's trained by Richard Violette, hardly a big first-time guy like Pletcher. But last week, Violette sent out Fed Watcher to win his debut at 5-1, earning a sparkling Beyer of 98 after getting his five furlongs in 56.10. Fed Watcher came out of the same sale as Phantom Income, selling for just $60,000 after working a quarter in 21.2.

Montbrook is a 12% debut sire, and Phantom Income is out of Catch the Ghost, a half-sister to the champion Ghostzapper. So she also certainly has a license to be fast, and could be some value as the 3-1 third choice in the morning line.

Namaste's Wish (5-2) is a $600,000 yearling purchase making her debut for Bill Mott. The trainer is only 13% with first-time two year olds over the last two years; but at Belmont, that average goes up to 26%, 10 for 38. Namaste's Wish, by Pulpit, is a full-brother to the Grade 1 winner (Cigar Mile) Purge, standing at Vinery for $20,000.

Shining Sea debuts for Mark Hennig, two for 44 with first-time two-year olds. This filly, by Stormy Atlantic, is out of a half-sister to the multiple Grade 1 winner Keeper Hill.

Friday Notes - June 29 [UPDATED]

- Check out this statement from Spitzer's spokesperson Paul Larabee:

"For the first time in 50 years, we have a chance to evaluate racing in New York, and that just doesn't include the racing that happens at the tracks, it's also the chance to look at the assets and think about other ways in which they could be used." [Daily Racing Form]

Oh, so that's the historic opportunity we have here!? Not one to update the laws, bring the OTB system into the 21st 20th century, and move forward with newfound vigor as the top racing program in the country...but a chance to think about other ways the assets could be used!!?? OH, I MUST HAVE MISUNDERSTOOD, EXCUSE ME!!

Let's move on before I start sending profanity the governor's way. I'm hoping to get out to Belmont today for at least the late pick four, and that's gonna be it for racing this weekend for me, as I'll be on the road Saturday through Monday, taking my daughter up to her college orientation in Oneonta. I don't think there are any tracks there. It's near Cooperstown though, so a trip to the Hall of Fame is a possibility. Here's a look at the last four at Belmont:

- In the sixth, we have the scary sight of not one, but two off the layoff entries from Godolphin, and our main man bin Suroor Saeed. The binster. The little b. Oh Saeed, can you see....him finishing one-two? Godolphin is five for ten at the meeting; four for six with layoff horses ranging from 201 to 622 days off! Leo makes his first start since running 9th in the 2005 BC Juvenile; that after taking a Grade 2 in England. I guess the Juvenile didn't really work out for Leo, but who's going to doubt him now? True Cause hasn't been out since last August. He doesn't have the graded stakes credentials of his stablemate, but he edged Leo out in a listed contest in Sept, 2005. He's by Storm Cat, out of a half sister to the fleet Balletto. Leave them out of the Pick Four opener at your own risk. Silver Timber is actually the 9-5 ML favorite for Linda Rice off of a close third in his seasonal debut a couple of weeks ago; but that was against a weak field, and Ms. Rice has gone a bit cold with an 0 for 18 streak. [UPDATE: This race has been taken off the grass (sorry Michael). No rain here today, but they must have gotten a deluge out at Belmont last night. But we still like the bin entry with True Cause out, and Minefield in. The latter returns off a layoff too, and is two-for-two on the dirt; he makes the switch from the Toddster to the binster.]

In the 7th, I'm not thrilled by either of the morning line choices; Cateleisha comes off a decent second for Contessa Laudati against an uninspiring field; and Montauk Daisy comes off a layoff. That's no big deal these days, but she fell short twice after graduating to entry level allowance company last fall and doesn't look inspiring here, particularly at her 9-5 morning line. Mt Langfuhr has improved in 2007, especially in her last, her first off the claim for the John Toscano barn. She wired the field against what is arguably better company than this, turning back the challenge of a Contessa dropper who was 3-5, and finishing up strongly in the 7th furlong, which could be key against these at that distance. Lady Elaine goes back to the dirt after a futile grass effort, and her experience at longer distances could help her stick around at the end, especially if she doesn't end up in a speed duel with Mt Langfuhr.

The 8th is a nice grass allowance race, and..... Oh fuck! Another Godolphin entry?? Mr. bSS again?? Oh man.... Well, Mathematician is one that didn't win off a long layoff, fading to 5th at 3-1 just 12 days ago in his first race since October, 2005. What to do with him I'm not quite sure. But Palace Episode, by Machiavellian out of a half-sister to Derby runner-up Tejano Run, is a freaking Grade 1 winner in the UK, having won the Racing Post Trophy in October of 2005! His next race was a disaster the following May, and this is his first outing since then. This entry isn't quite as inspiring as the one in the 6th, but I wouldn't dare leave it out. Giant Basil is the morning line fave for Frankel, coming off a nose win over a moderate allowance field at Hollywood; a string of solid workouts indicates that he's held his form. He figures to be overbet stepping up in class off a gaudy Beyer however. I'm also not that inspired by Rock Lobster, who has just never seemed to be the same since winning the Saranac last year; nor Woodlander, in for a tag after two poor efforts for Contessa following his win in the Fort Marcy.

So let's try 12-1 El Prado Rob. He has generally good grass form, albeit against a bit cheaper, at least in New York. He won in these allowance conditions at the Meadowlands last fall and gains entry courtesy of his $75,000 tag. This is his first start since a poor try on the Woodbine Poly last fall, but his last two starts off layoff lines have been excellent, and he gets Channing Hill, who rode him to victory last year.

In the 9th, Party Jones seems to have no excuses here, getting the rail in this nw2 claiming condition in which he missed by a nose to Exton last time out. The main concern is that he has tended to fall a bit short more often than not, with three close seconds (and a win) in his last four starts. Lets Get Going is equally logical to complete the exacta, with two recent seconds in this class; if the post positions were reversed (he starts from the eight hole with the start close to the turn), I'd consider the race more of a toss-up. As it is, I feel timid about singling the top choice.

So let's try this for the cheap man's Pick Four - add horses such as Silver Timber, Montauk Daisy, and Giant Basil as you wish...but to me, there just doesn't seem to be enough value in the series to spread around and make a big investment. So I'll try a smaller wager and leave them out.

Race 6 - bin entry
Race 7 - Mt Langfuhr, Lady Elaine
Race 8 - bin entry, El Prado Rob
Race 9 - Party Jones, Lets Get Going

Uh Oh...

- Patrick Biancone keeps his horses at Keeneland during the Churchill meeting, and it was there where a search of his barn has led to an investigation by the KHRA. Neither head steward John Veitch nor Biancone would comment. Keeneland's head of security told Bloodhorse, who broke this story earlier today, that the track will not take any action in regard to the matter until the KHRA has completed its investigation. Now, regarding the current meeting at Churchill, if a track can ban a jockey over murky suspicions of hanky panky at a distant track, I suppose they certainly could do the same to Biancone under these circumstances. We don't have any details, and I'm certainly not presuming anything at all; but you could certainly make the argument that given the publicity this will certainly be getting in the next few days, it's in the betting public's interest to have his horses withdrawn.

- Valerie Nellie pointed out that there are already stud ads for Lawyer Ron, and you can see his Stallion Register page here. His blurb is already written, and it's entirely possible at this point that there won't be anything to add:

SIX Straight Wins * FIVE Stakes
by Some 34 Lengths
Arkansas Derby-G2, Rebel-G3, etc.
Enters Stud upon Retirement

Oh, I thought he would take a year off and travel around Europe!

- Steve Davidowitz, writing for the Form's paid DRF Plus section, discusses the problems with the Cushion Track at Hollywood. It needs more wax to tighten it up; but according to Davidowitz, it won't be installed until July 9 at the earliest, and perhaps not for the rest of the meeting. He also reports that several trainers have privately admitted that some of their stock sustained back injuries.

In recent weeks, clockings have gotten noticeably slower, and some horses have not handled the looser surface nearly as well as the tight, perfectly balanced surface of 2006. Many horses have not handled the synthetic track as well as they did during the first two months of the current Hollywood meet.

This suggests that horses who negatively reversed their synthetic form from April to June might have been affected by the changing racing surface.

It also suggests that horses who might have missed a start during the last few weeks may have been forced to the sidelines to deal with body soreness, or some other minor injury. It also suggests that horses with good April and early May form over the surface should not be given an automatic edge on the present racing surface. [Daily Racing Form]

Something to consider not only now, but, especially, when analyzing the past performances once the action moves to Del Mar....and you have to deal with a totally different synthetic surface. I don't think that those fears of racing becoming too homogenized in the synthetic era, with every surface playing the same, are going to come to pass. Or at least not in the near future.

Del Mar will be adding some wax too.

"We received some feedback from the horse show people (in May) that the surface got a little looser in the afternoon when it warmed up," Fravel said. "That's why we wanted to get the (Polytrack) on there early and watch the various conditions." [North County Times]