Back in the Game

Several of the Aqueduct bidders have significantly raised the cash portion of their bids; that according to Jim Odato's article in the Times Union on Tuesday. As you may recall, the competition howled in protest when Steve Wynn was reported to have raised his offer during a meeting with Governor Paterson's staff. Odato had reported at the time that the proposals were supposed to be in a final state already. Aqueduct Entertainment Group's Larry Woolf said: "It was pretty clear: You had to identify what you could do."

But the state is hardly in a position to turn down money from willing suitors at this point, so the floodgates were reopened. Apparently. If that had been previously reported, I missed it, but, as you may know, the process is shrouded in secrecy.

Bidders had until last Friday to amend financial aspects of their proposals, and have until Wednesday to make nonfinancial adjustments. [Times Union]

AEG, which had offered $151 million, has added as much as $150 million if it gets 10,000 machines. Penn National, left at the gate with a piddling $5 million, rockets towards the leaders with an increase to $250 million - ha, and you thought we weren't serious. Steve Wynn has kicked in another $100 million at closing (I presume that the state is requiring suitcases of unmarked, or hell, any bills) and that amount again over the life of the contract.

Delaware North, heading a group called Aqueduct Gaming, held firm on its $100 million offer but, and again, this is all according to Odato's report, "promised another $200 million in ensuing years." Again as you may recall, the company was not amongst the three bidders reported to be the favorites by Crain's earlier this month. I speculated at the time that they seemed to be going through the motions. But I'm told by someone with connections to the group that they've made "real progress" of late with a more aggressive promotion effort.

And on Wedensday, Aqueduct Gaming issued a press release regarding their proposal. Don't expect however to read too much about the racino or the accompanying extras themselves. Only one paragraph of the three page release is dedicated to that, and there are no details regarding the "hotel, additional retail and restaurants, entertainment and other amenities based on community input." Most of the statement is instead devoted to the group's efforts to embrace and empower the surrounding community, working with it to create a facility that will both enrich and employ.

"The people of Queens expect and deserve a project that will enhance and respect their community, not detract from it," said William Bissett, a leader in the coalition of New York companies comprising Aqueduct Gaming...

"As a result of our research and interaction with community leaders, Aqueduct Gaming's approach represents the right size and character of development, with specific community initiatives designed to ensure maximum benefit to the community, the thoroughbred racing industry and the state."

And again as some of you may recall, Delaware North was excoriated by the community and by politicians running for office the first time around for their perceived snub of the community, having failed at the time even to meet with the Community Board. The company has certainly taken that lesson to heart. Their proposal includes "significant input and participation from the community and advisory groups," a guaranteed minimum percentage of Queens-based employees, an effort to buy from Queens vendors, a "highly visible" Employment and Small Business Center, a Neighborhood Foundation to be funded with a portion of profits, an hourly daycare center, and extreme care to environmental issues. Perhaps we'll see Bissett himself filling potholes on Rockaway Boulevard this winter.

A repeat selection of Delaware North would no doubt rankle some who may harbor a grudge from its pulling out of the first bid because it couldn't fund the oversized $370 million upfront payment....and to those who harbor suspicions of favoritism shown towards its influential lobbyists, Patricia Lynch Associates. However, their selection could easily be portrayed as merely going with the company that the leaders felt was best all along, back with an improved plan containing an undeniably appealing community aspect. And, as we've recently seen, Albany doesn't seem all that concerned about appearance these days. So a comeback win wouldn't surprise me much at all.

- Empire Resorts, the parent company of Monticello Raceway, is proving to be quite the scrapper. First, it staved off bankruptcy by pulling off a deal to pay off one creditor, and then maneuvered to delay for 90 days a threatened recall of $65 million.

On Wednesday, it announced a $55 million investment, in return for a tad less than half of the company, by a Malaysian investment company.

Kien Huat affiliates maintain substantial interests in a multinational group of companies collectively known as Genting, that is involved in gaming, leisure, hospitality, power generation, plantations, property development, biotechnology, and oil and gas. [Times Herald Record]

I'm sure that NYRA officials will be thrilled to hear that the company is keenly interested in building a casino and entertainment complex near Manhattan.

“We envision working together with the (St. Regis) Mohawks to create a regional gaming and entertainment center, which will serve the New York metro area.”

Flawed System, Flawed Report

So I've finished reading State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli's audit report on New York City OTB. Old news, you might say, but....well? You can read the more timely articles in the trades which merely summarize what was written, or you can wait a few days and get my own unique, at times and to put it one way, spin. (Or, you could just read the damn thing yourself.)

What made the document somewhat interesting reading was its inclusion of OTB's sometimes testy responses to the criticisms in what was referred to as the 'final draft' of the report. The main point of contention was over the reasons behind NYC OTB's recent deficits. To the Comptroller, it was a failure to do enough to cut costs. OTB dismissed that notion, instead blaming "the State's 'flawed' mandatory distribution system that compels OTB to distribute significantly more money than is available after allowance for its necessary operating expenses." The phrase 'flawed mandatory distribution" is sprinkled throughout the response. The sides even argued over whether certain payments to NYRA were actually statutory or not.

To me, it's just semantics, really. NYC OTB isn't generating enough revenue to cover its expenses, whether they be statutory, fixed overhead, or whatever; period. The payouts to the tracks which so rankles OTB are necessary operating expenses! As a matter of fact, they are the main reason for OTB's existence! Not patronage opportunities for politicians or SUV's for highly compensated execs, but payouts, and suitably quite generous ones, at least in terms of its own revenues, to the tracks, horsemen, and breeders who stage the sport off which OTB exists.

I looked at the financial info, and it seems to me that OTB in NYC is suffering from the same kind of problems as everyone else. Its business is down, and its fringe benefits costs are up. Salaries have remained flat despite cutbacks, and given what we're finding out about Mayor Bloomberg's generosity to unions, that's probably not too bad (though we don't quite know how he treats unions at entities he intends to eliminate). When revenue is down, businesses cut back. OTB should stop whining about payouts to the industry, and do all those nasty things businesses do when their survival is in jeopardy.

The Comptroller mainly held the line on his argument in the actual report. While acknowledging OTB's cost-cutting efforts, he writes:

However, management has not performed a comprehensive assessment of the Corporation’s operating expenses as one would expect from an entity in its unsound financial situation. For example, its internal audit department has not systematically examined operating expenses to identify opportunities for cost savings, nor performed vulnerability assessments to identify areas of control risk.

The report suggests several areas where OTB can save, in particular the notion of changing from the bricks and mortar model to account wagering for which the costs are significantly less. (The problem there is that OTB doesn't want to give up the surcharge that it collects in the shops).

But in the cover letter to the report, DiNapoli seems to have fallen under the sway of OTB's argument, and takes a different tone, writing that "serious consideration must be given to changing the mandated state formulas." Then, under a section subtitled Distribution formula changes not enough, he writes:

The NYC OTB’s statutory distributions are a significant financial outlay. By far the most significant of these distributions are to the horse racing industry. Over a four-year period, distributions to the industry totaled $386 million and accounted for more than 72 percent of the NYC OTB’s total $533.5 million in statutory distributions.

Yeah? So? What exactly is the point of this passage, Mr. Comptroller? The distributions to the racing industry make up a large portion of their distributions; isn't that the way it's supposed to be? Who else exactly should be getting 72 percent of the distributions? Pedro Espada? In fact, why is it only 72%? Whatsmore, the Comptroller never discusses the larger and more fundamental picture of the efficiencies and savings that would be inherent in a consolidation of operations amongst all of the state's OTB corporations and the racing entities it could be serving instead of competing against.

It's kinda weird to me the way the cover letter takes such a different tone than the report which it's supposed to cover. It almost seems like somebody "got to" DiNapoli. Maybe someone should check his recent campaign contributions, or inspect his coffee cups for residue of brainwashing powder that makes him chant "flawed mandatory distribution" system every time he sees the queen of diamonds or a losing OTB ticket lying in the street.

Saratoga Notes

Since I posted this horror list of McLaughlin's recent two-year old first-time starters, he did score a winner on Saturday, for Darley, with Liston (Storm Cat), a Stonerside homebred who won by a length with a 77 Beyer. Little surprise given the connections and breeding (a half brother to the highly disappointing Country Star) that he was 9-5 (in a field consisting entirely of first-time starters).

However, the barn added three more losers to the list: Hatheer was second by a length as the 6-5 favorite last Thursday, and then two more ugly ones: Common Currency was 5th by 14 1/2 on Sunday....and on Monday, Ready for Change, another beautifully bred Stonerside/Darley homebred (AP Indy out of champion Ajina)was 6th by 47 lengths at odds of 3-1!! If you take the seven McLaughlin two-year old first-timers who have gone off at odds of 5-1 or less and lost at the Spa, they did so by an average of 15 lengths; and that's including the one who lost by just one. That's pretty bizarre. So I think that this barn is obviously being way overbet in this category at this particular meet, and I'll continue to beware.

- Nice return to the races for Gayego; in hand after an awkward beginning, and home in furlongs of 11.45 and 11.54. He earned a Beyer of 99 for six furlongs in 1:09.25. "He's probably a little better at seven furlongs or a mile than he is at six," said Godolphin Guy Rick Mettee [Schenectady Gazette], who said the horse will be pointed for one race or another in the Breeders Cup. Because that's what one is supposed to do with their top horses - send them to the year-end championships.

- Top Lass ($30.80) was the second longshot winner in a row for trainer James Ferraro, who scored with Heavenly Blaze ($51.50) on Saturday.

And another winner each for Linda Rice and George Weaver, coming in the late double.

- If Sunday was the final free summer concert of the season for me, as it appears it may be, it certainly came to a fittingly climactic conclusion with a fierce performance by Dinosaur Jr at Central Park. Don't know what else to say about this band - it's the 4th time I've seen them since their reunion - except that these guys are in prime form, performing at a level of virtuosity that I don't often see in a guitar/bass/drums rock trio (though Mission of Burma's show ranked in the same category). Murph's jackhammer drumming and the ingenious bass attack by Lou Barlow (releasing a solo album this fall and opening with his band for much of the next leg of Dinosaur Jr.'s tour, could make any guitarist sound good; throw in guitar God J Mascis and his infectious songs, and you have quite a special band. Moody, melodic cacophony, as described in the Times.

As I've mentioned, their excellent (there I go with the superlatives again) new album Farm is available on Jagjaguwar Records. And Dino Jr will perform at two venues in or near two of my favorite places on earth, both of which I've been lucky enough to be able to visit this summer - October 4 at Northern Lights in Clifton Park, 10-15 minutes or so south of Saratoga; and November 4 at Belly Up, in beautiful Solana Beach, right around the corner from Del Mar. And, better yet, they will return to New York on November 21, when they will play with Sonic Youth, former labelmates back in the 90's on both the classic Indie labels Homestead and SST.

Preceding Dinosaur Jr was an excellent set by The Walkmen. And Friday night was the final show of the season at the South Street Seaport. On record, Brooklyn's School of Seven Bells are about lush production and the Cocteau Twins-ish vocals of twin sisters Alejandra and Claudia Deheza. Live, they were all about the guitar played by Benjamin Curtis, formerly of Simple Machines; at least to me. Their latest album, Alpinisms, is available on Ghostly International.

Grapes and Greens

Grapes and Greens is the Head Chef's new blog, and here's a somewhat relevant excerpt:

This weekend was our family's annual trip to Saratoga Springs, NY [ed note. - how's that for putting a wholesome spin on things] and their farmers' market is undoubtedly the highlight of my summer. The variety of produce and the passion among farmers and shoppers for all things fresh and delicious is always palpable. I dream for weeks ahead about the elaborate meal I will make after my shopping. [ed note. - And I'm a nut because I'm getting excited for the hockey season?] This year, as always, I headed straight over to my favorite heirloom tomato grower. My heart sank as I looked over his beautiful knobby fingerling potatoes and his lush lettuces. Not a tomato in sight. I was informed that almost the entire crop had been wiped out by the raging tomato blight and there was little hope of salvaging even a tenth of the crop. So sad.

One or two farmers had small tomatoes available and I grabbed up a few precious fruits. My plan this year was to head straight to our picnic site after shopping [ed. note - after the Whitney], so food prep had to be simple.

The grapefruit sized mini cantaloupes could not be passed up and some pretty sweet white onions rounded out the salad I had in mind. I had already packed a vinaigrette that I made at home, so all was set. It is hard to accept that I won't be seeing much of the heirlooms this summer. I wait all year for one month of tomato bliss. The farmer told me that the organic and small farms are the ones being the hardest hit. I had been enjoying the relentless June rains for keeping my home garden moist but now I am realizing the bitter price.

Read the rest of the post for details on the Trifecta Salad!

- And this is the Head Chef's current favorite song.

Dead Heat

I think I'm gonna pack some heat the next time I go to the track. Or at least the first time after a obtain a license for a handgun. Too bad that, in New York, I can't sling some serious weaponry over my shoulder like this guy. Where's the NRA when you need them?


Because dammit, I'm pissed. I'm sick of this crap with the racino, and tired of subpar facilities at my racetracks. I'm against government meddling in racing, and sick of being parimutuelly overtaxed to death. I've had it with jockeys who move too soon or who get parked four wide from the two hole. I'm fed up with the drugs, and with those death panels behind which they put the horses down.

So, I'll bring a piece. That'll show 'em, right? Of course, I'm not going to actually use it...

Oh...so, then, why am I bringing one? Oh, that's right, I'll just be exercising my second amendment right to defend myself against aggressively aggrieved bettors.

Pretty wacky, isn't it? But though you readers trust me (right?), can you really trust that someone who's bonkers enough to bring a loaded assault weapon to a presidential event wouldn't really utilize it? If they're not going to use them, why then is this becoming such a popular fad?

I presume of course that if you can bring a gun to a place where the President of the United States is talking (though you couldn't even wear an anti-Bush t-shirt when he was around), I can certainly bring one to Saratoga, right? Now that the state owns the land, I don't see how NYRA can continue to assert their claim of private property. (And I wonder then, if that's indeed the case, if they can still summarily ban persons suspected of wrongdoing from the grounds?) Besides, I don't see anything on NYRA's website about not being allowed to bring firearms. No glass, no smoking or coolers in the building, it says. But nothing about 22-caliber semi-automatics.

The $64,000 Question

Saturday's late Pick Four at Saratoga paid over $64,000; and that with favored Cops Fever winning the finale. I can imagine that, on some day, under a certain circumstance, in a particular frame of mind (or state of consciousness), amongst a singular mix of horseplayers (or by myself), with a high degree of recklessness, emboldened perhaps by a recent score or some other financial blessing, with the planets aligned in a precisely defined manner and the weather invigorating the body, soul, and an especially creative nook somewhere in the folds of my brain, I might have had that. Just saying.

I'd started to handicap the sequence for a post and a wager, but abandoned the effort when it became obvious that the bet would be too expensive for my taste. I'd included Ninth Client ($18.40) off the big drop in class....and I'm a bit surprised that Eliot Spitzer didn't claim this horse and put it out to pasture. Telling ($68) was in my mix for the Sword Dancer; problem was that so were five others. This son of AP Indy had pace excuses when a close 5th in the Arlington Handicap, and had raced quite well at a mile and a half in the past. And I eventually came to settle on Cops Fever as my key in the 11th (though I came otherwise nowhere near cashing a ticket), so I can deduce that I could have ended up singling him had I pressed on.

The horse that would have beaten me was actually Expansion ($14). I tend to look at a horse like that and go 'no way,' coming off five consecutive losing efforts at short odds since graduating to this class as he had - the last four times as the favorite. However, that first impression is generally based on the assumption that the horse is going to be short odds again, and be worth a bet against on an established propensity to somehow come up just short. But the fact is that, at 6-1 (and, of course, with the benefit of hindsight), this son of Maria's Mon needed to be seen in a completely different light. He had competitive Beyers, legit excuses in his last three, and hailed from the sharp McLaughlin barn (which broke that little slump with first-time juveniles with Liston ($5.90) in the second. At 6-1, he goes from money burner to fair value, if not an overlay.

And that's one of my problems betting the multi-race wagers - lacking the crucial context which the tote board provides. With a horse like this, it's necessary to cast aside any assumptions or conclusions based on what odds a horse has gone off at in the past, or what it might be today, and judge it on a single, simple criteria - is it a contender? In the case of Expansion, the answer was clearly 'yes,' and it would have been a shame if I lost the bet basically by being a wise guy.

- Sean Avery ($14) won for fun for Hushion a little over a year after making his debut at Belmont (for Alan Iwinski). Tom Durkin is obviously either not a hockey guy, or one of those bitter Islander fans. My call would have been: "And here's Sean Avery, he's in all alone......HE SCORES!" For Hushion, that's three wins out of just eight starters, and at prices of 4-1, 5-1, and 6-1. (He has horses entered in the first and last race today.)

Too Important To Fail?

New York's Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli has released his audit of NYC OTB, the findings of which were leaked by the Post last month....and which you could probably figure out anyway. "The industry is too important to fail," DiNapoli writes in a press release. Sounds like it could be eligible for an injection of funds by the Fed.

“New York City OTB is on very shaky financial ground,” DiNapoli said. “Even if cost-savings measures are implemented, it’s unlikely that it will remain financially solvent for long. This is a serious problem that needs in-depth examination. If the goal is to keep OTB viable, serious consideration must be given to changing the mandated state formulas and restructuring operations to coordinate different aspects of the racing industry.
....
".....Something has to be done. Inaction will mean insolvency.”

Here's the complete audit report in a large pdf file. This is one of those documents that I prefer to delve into in detail before commenting further; so I have something to read in case I have trouble sleeping this weekend. So more on this to follow.

- Perhaps you've been following the matter of the hiring of Senate Majority Leader Pedro Espada's son to a $120,000-a-year position (to which he didn't show up), the NY Post's 'gotcha' when he couldn't log on to the computer in his purported office; and his subsequent resignation after Andrew Cuomo launched a probe into the whole stinking affair. The point for those of us awaiting the decision on the Aqueduct racino is that there is no shame and no party lines when it comes to the sleaze and corruption in Albany, which, in this particular case, was carried out with brazen transparency. Approved by the Democratic conference leader Senator John Sampson, the quid pro quo factor in the appointment after the elder Espada's return to the Democratic fold is frighteningly obvious. So yes, be very afraid that the Aqueduct process is being held behind closed doors, and don't at all underestimate the ties of the Aqueduct Entertainment Group to Senate President (completing the three stooges of the Democratic leadership) Malcolm Smith.

- NYRA announced a contest which takes advantage of the fact that all three Triple Crown race winners are on the grounds at Saratoga. Three lucky winners will each get to meet one of them. I dunno, my experience with meeting horses has not been particularly enlightening. They don't seem to relish discussing their races, and are particularly mum about their human connections. But I guess it's good for a cool photo op.

At approximately 10:00 a.m. the Mine That Bird and Summer Bird winners along with their guests will depart for a meeting with their Classic winner. The Rachel Alexandra meeting is scheduled for 3:45 p.m.

Typical woman, always keeping their dates waiting.

Not So Hot

First-time starter Aspire ($8.90) won the second on Wednesday as favorite Grand Strategy (3-2) was seven lengths back making his debut for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. His is a solid first-out barn, especially with two-year olds - nine for 37 (24%) over the last year; 18 for 72 (an even 25%) over the last two.

But not lately. I'm a big believer in recency when it comes to trainer patterns, and I always set my Formulator stats in date order starting with the latest races. Stats over three or four years are useful in determining a trainer's overall tendencies; but there are always ups and downs along the way. For McLaughlin with first-time starters, it's definitely down at this particular time, at least on the NYRA circuit. From his last eight first-timers at Belmont and Saratoga, here are the results...and these are all two year-olds.

Genuine Charm - 7th by 11 at 4-1
Sweet Elgius - 5th by 15 at 8-1
Trappe Shot - 5th by 7 at 5-2
Salaam Alaykum - 10th by 17 at 10-1
Krypton - 11th by 30 at 10-1
Chimayo - 8th by 14 at 9-5
Middle of the Night - 10th by 15 at 5-1
Grand Strategy - 4th by 7 at 3-2

Looks like my betting ledger at Saratoga last weekend.

Does that mean that I'll bet against any of McLaughlin's first-time juveniles? No, but it does mean that I might be more aggressive opposing the next one that's 7-5 for West Point on a crowded Saturday afternoon at Saratoga. By the way, three of these starters got off to poor starts; so is it possible that the barn is not doing a good job preparing its babies for the gate? I dunno...but I imagine that there are sometimes rational explanations other than the laws of probability behind trainers going hot and cold.

Speaking of crowds, over 21,000 on Wednesday. Pretty impressive, and that bodes well for the coming weekend, which doesn't have a marquee race.

Back to Wednesday's 2nd, Aspire was the first winner, in 11 tries, for trainer Eddie Kenneally. This barn had been knocking at the door with three solid seconds, with horses that went off at 8-1 (Keep the Peace in the Honorable Miss), 10-1, and 38-1. If you look at his Formulator stats, you'll see that this barn is only 9% at Saratoga over the last three years. But a closer, more recent look reveals that all four of his winners (from 47 starters) came here last year (from 18 starters). This is a 17% barn overall, and his horses seem to be live here again this year.

On Thursday, Kenneally starts Newport Harbour (8-1) in the 8th. Interesting story here for this four-year old daughter of the AP Indy stallion Full Mandate - she was claimed by trainer Timothy Ritvo for owner Frank Bodell for 70K in February, 2008, one race after she changed hands for 50. Must have lost a shake the first time. She won her next two starts, but then disappeared for 13 months; and when she returned, in June at Churchill, she did so for a new trainer in Kenneally. In her return, she moved up in class while being exposed for the optional 80K price even though she was eligible on conditions; mixed signals there. But she won at 16-1 in what has turned out to be a pretty good race; third place Step Out Smartly won her next at the same level with a 91 Beyer; 4th place Valentine Fever was a troubled third with an 83; and 5th place Whirlie Bertie was second in a grass stakes at Ellis.

I think that Newport Harbour will certainly have to improve further to handle favored Turn Away, 2-1 in the morning line though her fair value and likely post time odds are likely to be less coming off her solid second in a short but talented First Flight field. Newport Harbour comes off a solid work on the training track last week, and could create some value in the exacta at least, as this barn has already done three times this meet as mentioned above.

The 4th shows why there shouldn't be everyday non-stakes races carded for over a mile and a quarter....no less two miles?!? The margins were as ugly as you can get - 7 1/2, 1 3/4, 20 1/2, 22 1/2, DNF, DNF. I rest my case.

In the 5th, first-time starter Opus A, 8-1 morning line, was bet down to 3-1 for Violette. Daughter of Read the Footnotes dropped way back after being checked, came ridiculously wide around the turn, seemed to be floundering midstretch, but launched a late surge to win by a comfortable half length. Great game, ain't it? She's out of a Sea Hero half-sister to Z Fortune, who I think I had in my top three for the 2008 Derby at some point.

Weaver on the board with dropdown/returnee Belle's Home ($10.20) in the 6th; second win in 18 starts for this barn. In the 7th on Thursday, he starts first-timer Neennie's House (12-1). This barn is one for 54 with first-timers on the grass over the last four years.....not much way to spin that one with different time frames.....or is there? He's had three very close seconds - all within a length - with his last six such starters, at odds of 6-1, 7-1, and 9-1. Neenie's House is by the rookie sire Limehouse, 7th on the first-year sire list (six winners), out of an Eastern Echo dam; and she's a half to a turf stakes winner in Strait From Texas. Worth a ducat since I've been following the barn (though apparently not enough to have taken time out from a busy day to bet on Belle's Home).

Deck Chairs on the Titanic

The Breeders' Cup has announced saddle cloths will now be the same color as the ones regular horse players are used to.

"We appreciate the input from so many passionate horseplayers on this topic, and believe the new saddle towels will provide a more fan friendly experience for our customers betting on the Championships.” [BC Press Release on Bloodhorse.com]

After the debacle of what will be two straight years at Santa Anita and the controversial changes to the program, the BC needed some "Hey, look, we're changing, we're listening to our fans" news. But I find this to be a mere toss of the bone when issues many fans find more profound, such as the Distaff name change and the Filly Friday program, have been arrogantly ignored.

I mean, big deal, using the standard saddle cloth colors, that was just a no-brainer, like needing a new healthcare system. Why were they stubborn about this for so long? To now cite it as proof that they're listening to the fans is purely cynical and insincere in my view.

The bigger point here is that the Breeders Cup and all of horse racing is in relevancy trouble. It's not good when:

• A bunch of horses no one has ever heard of comes across the pond and win your top races.
• The connections of the one mainstream-newsworthy horse is putting out weekly press release saying they aren't going to the year end championships.
• Even horse racing fans say they are overwhelmed by the amount of races over two days
• Seriously, are any of you following the bloated Win And Yer In?
• The tracks don't want to help because they don't make that much on the signal
• Foal nominations are down
  

So, the saddle cloth change is nice, but, as my buddy Handride always says, it's just deck chairs really. I guess it's a start, but it's only that.

Saratoga Notes

Oh man, had to be an agonizing beat for anyone who had Zaskar on top in the Signature Stallion Stakes at Saratoga on Monday. The longest shot in the field of six at 10.60 to 1, this four-year old daughter of Anabaa (Danzig) took the lead from the start, and opened up as much as eight under Javier Castellano (off to a slow start, but victorious in the second on Proud Zoe for the Toddster...and check it out, look who's leading the training race as of this writing!) Castellano was able to moderate the pace of the mile and a half marathon, enough so that when the horse looked dead midstretch after being engaged by Queen of Hearts, Zaskar gave his backers hope, coming back on the inside with a late surge. Durkin thought he'd won it; he certainly seemed to have the momentum.

But the cameraman got it right on the gallop-out, and the replay clearly showed the misfortune of the head bob for some. Others were ecstatic with Queen of Hearts ($17.60), who took some money coming off a maiden win; daughter of Thunder Gulch was 15-1 in the morning line. It was the second win of the meeting, from seven starters, for trainer Jimmy Jerkens; and he's won with his two longest shots, this one and Sugar Trade ($22.60) on July 31.

In the first on Wednesday, Jerkens has the morning line favorite with Platinum (2-1), and this is a horse to take a stand against as the favorite on at least two fundamental principles - first time against winners, and first time at a route. In fact, she's stretching out from six furlongs to a mile and an eighth. I know the public goes for promising types like this with a field high Beyer of 85; but I certainly wouldn't be surprised if this three-year old daughter of Mineshaft is in fact not favored at post time.

But if she is, I'd take a shot on someone like Starship Angel (9-2) for McLaughlin, five for 23 (22%) plus two close seconds. She comes off two facile wins on mud against questionable fields around one turn at Belmont. But she's finished well around two turns on turf, comes into this off a brilliant series of works, and retains Ramon, who may have had another option in Dean Henry (5-1). That one had some good two-turn efforts on the inner track, albeit with slow figs. Last was much quicker at a mile at the Big A though, and this daughter of Empire Maker should appreciate the stretch-out to two turns, and could be on the improve for trainer Tom Albertrani.

Little Creatures

What's important
In this world?
A little boy
A little girl

- The Pretenders - Thumbelina

The yearling sales got under way at Saratoga last evening, and, with the Sheikh of Dubai in town, did you really think that it would be anything but successful? Probably didn't hurt that Fasig-Tipton was purchased last year by a close Dubai associate of his. Nor that, in prevailing in the bidding for the three top sellers of the night, he also took the opportunity to boost the fortunes of two of his own stallions. There were two colts by Bernardini (standing at Darley for $75,000) selling for $1.3 and $1.2 million, and the session topper, a filly by sire-of-the-moment Medaglia D'Oro, also at Darley, out of Cat Dancer, which fetched $1.5 million. (This filly descends from the same family of Hard Spun, another resident in the Sheikh's den; Luiana, the third dam of Hard Spun [and the dam of champion Little Current] is the 4th dam of this filly.)

The Sheikh apparently hadn't been in Saratoga for some time, though nobody seems to know exactly when his last visit was (except that there were no slots at the harness track at the time for sure). Bloodhorse reports that he "briefly" mingled with the crowd, but made it clear he wanted Ferguson to speak on his behalf concerning sale matters (Not me baby, I'm too precious....fuck off.) But in any event, his presence clearly helped to boost the figures for the session.

With 76 horses sold for $25,470,000 (up 40.3%), average rose to $335,132. While that remained well below the record average for the sale as a whole of $385,259 set in 2001, it was a 10.7% increase over the same session in 2008. The buy-back rate remained relatively low at 28.3%. [Thoroughbred Times]

- That was quite a crowd at Saratoga on Saturday - nearly 40,000 on hand. Haven't seen any official stats, but I imagine that for a non-Travers, non-giveaway day, it has to be up there amongst the best crowds ever. But the track can handle masses like this with aplomb; I remember the time when anything over 20-25,000 meant spending a lot of time on line. Saturday required a slight change in strategy - I found lines 3-4 deep at the betting machines. That's nothing at the manned windows, but you never know who or what can be in front of you at the machines. Fortunately, the manned windows on the second floor in the grandstand just beyond the clubhouse border were virtually empty as post time approached; something for you to keep in mind for big crowd days in the future.

It felt a little strange to have to call out my bets, as I'm strictly a machine guy. It also raises the risk that I'll hear someone in front of me bet the horses that I like, which is likely to drive me off the horse, and off the line entirely....a system which has never failed me. Call it the Jay Trotter system.

24,000 more on hand on Sunday; it seems as if the sport is alive and well in upstate New York. Can't say exactly why or how in this economy, and it doesn't seem to comport with all the last minute housing specials I'm still getting from Federlin. But someone here must be doing something right.

Stop Sobbing Now

Got back last night from a brief trip up to Saratoga for the weekend's races, and back at work But gotta stop sobbing now.... After all, it was a lot of Saratoga packed into two days. On Saturday alone, we went to the Farmers' Market in the morning, took a short stroll around town (though long enough for the Head Chef to spend around $60....stimulating the local economy), and hit the racetrack by noon. We split after the Whitney to head over to Saratoga Springs State Park, where we staked out our favorite spot, fired up a BBQ and dined by a babbling brook, ah... And then, we zipped over to SPAC for the Philly Orchestra, and managed to walk in just in time to hear guest soloist Joshua Bell. I may not be much of a classical music buff, but I certainly know enough to realize that this guy is truly a virtuoso....simply amazing!

Sunday was pretty chill by comparison, but still, of course, made it to the races despite the grey skies and shaky forecast (which I wasn't too worried about after handicapping the weather radar). Left after eight races (plus one at Del Mar) to head back to Queens, in time to see all of the scoring at the Stadium as the Yanks completed their thrashing of the Red Sox. Yeah, that's right, I missed the two desultory short-field, short-priced favorite stakes races. We can have this discussion another time, but, as a horseplayer, I'll take the full-field entry-level allowance, maiden special and claiming races over those shorties any day of the week.

Not much luck at the windows, save for Sunday's early double....just a saver bet which didn't really get me that far. Big blow of the weekend was when High Cry hung on for second at 34-1 in Saturday's sixth, thus splitting my exactas and triples (and no, not a penny to win on the 6-1 winner).

Anyway, it was all too busy for posting...and another busy day today. Right after work, it's off to Central Park. And talk about your fillies first! It's the legendary Chrissie Hynde, with the present incarnation of the Pretenders, plus opening acts Cat Power and Juliette Lewis. Not a free show....but rather a benefit so that we can enjoy other shows for free....such as Sunday's monstrous Dinosaur Jr. / The Walkmen bill. So I'll catch up with ya later, have a great day.

Kind of a Drag

Three horses did not finish their races at Saratoga on Thursday, though they are all OK. In the 4th, 5-2 favorite Pluto, a $1 million Tabor/Smith bust dropping in for a 35K tag for Pletcher, was pulled up on the backstretch and vanned off with a strained left front distal sesamoid ligament.

He will be retired to stud, according to NYRA. [Albany Times Union]

Retired to stud? Where, in Alaska? You knew what the connections thought of this expensive purchase when they debuted him at Calder in April. And even after taking that debut, the son of AP Indy out of G1 winner House Party was sent to Delaware instead of Kentucky or New York. A reader writes:

No takers at the claim box, not even Jacobson who takes this type all the time, so word was out, but the gamblers were not protected.

No, they weren't, were they? As we've seen, in Hong Kong, this incident would prompt an investigation and a thoroughly detailed report to the public. Here, we're just happy that the horse is alive.

Two winners in a row on Thursday for trainer Eoin Harty, both with the ol' synth-to-Saratoga angle. But while Past the Point ($3.80) had prior success over this main track (most notably his second to Curlin in the Woodward), African Diamond ($15.40) had only run on the fake stuff. He seems to prefer the dirt, earning a career high Beyer of 84. But the gelded son of Yonaguska will be preferring it for trainer Chad Brown, who claimed him for 35K.

Two winners a row for Dutrow as well. Jung Man Scott ($3.40) ran away by eight switching to the grass. Two year old son of Freud is out of a half-sister to the stakes winners Wishful Tomcat and Uncle T Steven. Adagio ($11.40) was in first time for a tag a bit suspiciously himself off a long layoff, but no problems here. Storm Caller was a close second at 30-1 for trainer George Weaver. This barn, which I looked to get off to a quick start, is instead one for 12. However, he was second by a length with 6-1 Liscarroll on Saturday, won with My Man Lars ($10.60) on Sunday, one of his three starters was second by a head with 8-1 Cleric. So I still say beware.

- Free music on Thursday night at Clinton Castle, as the summer schedule starts to wind down....though not of course before the mighty Dinosaur Jr. plays Summerstage for free on the 16th. On this night, we saw John Kelly evoke Joni Mitchell with uncanny preciseness, especially when he was decked out in a sleek green evening gown and a stunning platinum blond wig for the first half of the show. I found the performance, with the help of a sharp backing band, to be exhilarating, even though I wouldn't at all call myself a big fan of Ms. Mitchell.

In fact, so inspired am I, that when I saw this new Fillies First blog, I thought I might start a second site myself. Mine would be called Phallus First, and it would be dedicated to fighting those pernicious gender prejudices that create the preconception that men can't cover Joni Mitchell songs. See for yourself.

Saratoga Notes

Not a good start for chalk players at Saratoga on Wednesday as even money Madison Avenue was half the length of the stretch up the track in last for Steve Klesaris in the opener, yuck. Disco Diva ($53) went wire to wire for Galluscio and I'm sure there was at least one happy guy at the track going: "25-1, ARE YOU KIDDING ME, HORSE WINS BY FIVE LAST TIME AND HE'S 25-1?" Aren't you sorry sometimes that you know too much to bet a horse like this? Innocence can truly be bliss at the races.

Pletcher heating up a bit at the track where he once ruled the roost regularly, and say that ten times fast. The Toddster won his fourth race in the last three days when Paracaides outfinished 3-5 Film Chant in an extremely game performance. This daughter of War Chant, the only four-year old in the 3-and-up contest, was hounded by the favorite all the way and was pressured to a half of 45.14 in the seven furlong race. From there, she slowed considerably - 25.38 for the third quarter and nearly 14 seconds for the final furlong. But she managed to outlast the equally tired Film Chant.

I guess this is the type of race that some of the rabid anti-synthetic folks are referring to when they talk about the dirt game of speed and heart that they feel that artificial tracks muzzle. I have to admit that there's a certain appeal to seeing two exhausted combatants battle it out in deep stretch. I find it comparable to a football defense trying to mount a desperate goal line stand in the final seconds despite being tired and battered. I think it's a very American trait to find this sort of battle-to-the-death scenario appealing....one of the reasons perhaps why we're in the minority of those who watch the brand of football played with an oblong ball and horse racing on dirt.

Personally, watching the stretch run of this race, I found it more agonizing to watch them stagger home than thrilling to see. Just my point of view.

Dean's Kitten ($5.40) is the 7th winner for rookie sire Kitten's Joy. The grass champ stands for Ken Ramsey for $20,000.

Marscaponi was outclassed by Too Amenable ($3.40) in the 6th; but Ubillo now has a second and two thirds with four starters; we're gonna make some money on this barn before the meet is over.

I watched the head on of the De La Rose Stakes, and it looked to me as if Cocoa Beach simply drifted in, despite left-handed whipping by Ramon, and impeded Grande Annee.

The stewards deduced that Lucky Copy, the tiring pacesetter drifted out several paths turning for home and may have started a chain reaction in which Cocoa Beach's hind end got turned around when bumped by another horse causing it to look as though Cocoa Beach was at fault. [Daily Racing Form]

I didn't see that at all.

Saratoga Wednesday

In the 6th, Too Amenable is 3-5 morning line for Clement, 5-0-2-2 thus far; this off his narrow loss to the Globemaster in a race which I wrote about here after picking him here. He certainly looks tough in this spot. However, I'm having a look at second choice Marscaponi (5-1), for trainer Rodrigo Ubillo. I've been mentioning this barn, which has been live all year, as one on which we might get some value at Saratoga where his name recognition lags far behind his more renowned competitors.

This horse is, alas, an 0 for 14 maiden. However, he's improved dramatically in his two efforts since switching to this barn from that of Tom Bush. After the first of those races, he came back just four days later, moved to this class, and ran a solid second to the consistent Strong Hope on July 19. A bit more rest now, and Prado sticks. Ubillo is 0-for-three thus far at the Spa, but he has two thirds, including a close one with Vivi's Book, who moved up to stakes company, on the turf, and earned a career best Beyer of 87 at odds of 10-1. Don't know if it means anything that Marscaponi outworked Vivi's Best by 2 1/2 seconds when they both drilled on July 9. But it sure sounds good in a handicapping column. As I said, the favorite looks tough, but I wouldn't be surprised by a mild upset here.

Last Call

Despite being away on vacation, I was certainly remiss in failing to find the time to mention the passing of Jack E. Lee, the soundtrack of my formative years at the track. Lee was the track announcer at Roosevelt Raceway back in the early 70's when I first started to make the trip on the Southern State Parkway, to the Meadowbrook, and on to Roosevelt, The Big Wheel, where his mellifluous baritone resonated throughout the festive grounds, as alive a racetrack as any I've been to since....and, in later years, echoed throughout the sad ruins of the golden age of harness racing in this state.

Track announcers at half-mile tracks can get locked into a formula. The races all unfold in similar fashion, and are run mostly all at the same distance, featuring a leader, the unfortunate first one over, the pocket trip, 4th with perfect cover on the outside, the dreaded third on the rail (especially in the days before the passing lane, ugh). Jack E. Lee avoided slipping into monotony with the sheer power and grace of his voice, and an unfailing accuracy which made the visuals virtually unnecessary.

Jack E. Lee called the races at Freehold in the 90's; and also served as the PA announcer during the early years of the Mets. He was retired when he died last week at the age of 73.

His is one of those distinct voices that I can always replay in my mind. Of course, it also helps that I can now see and hear lots of old races on You Tube. Here are three videos - the first, posted recently, is a great clip featuring Stan Bergstein in the booth while Lee prepares for a race. The second is one I think is appropriate at this time, featuring as it does the win by the champion filly Tarport Hap against the best male pacers in the sport in the 1976 U.S. Pacing Championship. (You happy now? See, I mentioned alluded to her, OK?). And the third is the great Ideal Du Gazeau winning his second straight Roosevelt International.

Thanks for the calls, Jack.







By the way, the race directly above is also one of the races which is pictured in the Big Wheel post linked to above and here. When I wrote that post, just a few short years ago in February 2005, You Tube barely even existed. Amazing, isn't it?


- Another voice from my youth is that of Pete Fornatale, who was my favorite DJ on WNEW-FM, back in the golden age of FM rock radio. As I recall, he was only a weekend and fill-in guy at first. But I was a regular, and I vividly recall his turning me on to Neil Young, this around the time of Everybody Knows This Is Nowhere; including and in particular, his mysterious first solo album, pre-Crazy Horse, with two different covers and two different mixes.

Fortunately, Pete Fornatale is alive and well, and still doing radio. He also has a new book out about Woodstock entitled Back to the Garden, which I expect to love once I get it in return for this plug (lol, just kidding). Whatsmore, you guys up in Saratoga, where the weather outlook is promising if not glorious for the next few days, can meet the author and reminisce about the times when radio really mattered; it was an art form in itself. He'll be at the Borders in town on Wednesday at 7 PM, to discuss, read from, and sign the book. While you're there, you can also discuss Thursday's races with my buddy Peter Thomas Fornatale, the junior Pete Fornatale, an author in his own right, and a sporadically prescient horseplayer and handicapper for the Saratoga Special. Check it out, tell him I said hi.

Three of Them Across The Track

Crain's New York reports that there are three leaders in the Aqueduct racino race.

Of the six bids, three have generated the most buzz thanks to their local connections and name recognition. Insiders say the leading contenders so far are bids by Manhattan’s largest landlord, SL Green; the Aqueduct Entertainment Group, which includes The Navegante Group and other New York area builders; and casino mogul Steven Wynn.

Can't say I'm surprised that Delaware North isn't on that list. Can't imagine that the state would take their $100 million offer after they couldn't raise the $370 million. Besides, reports indicate that they're back to the slots-in-a-box offer which they were pressured to improve upon the first time around. Seems like they're just going through the motions. And what exactly was Penn National thinking with their token offer of $5 million? Maybe they just wanted to be in it in case all of the rest of them self-destruct? (Hardly an impossible prospect given the years of mishaps.)

But it has to be a big disappointment to developer R. Donahue Peebles if it's true that his bid with MGM Mirage has not made the cut. His reported bid of $150 million is twice that of Wynn's (at least before Wynn tried to raise his bid), and he has that cool website with all the pretty people too. I'd be a little disappointed as well, at least from the standpoint of having good stuff and idiotic quotes to blog about. The Crain's New York article says that the group claimed to have "received positive feedback from local representatives." So I'm not sure what's happening there.

If you missed it, this post on Capital Confidential has the little that is known about the financial aspects of the bids. The three companies reported to be leading have all basically offered $100 million up front and guaranteed (AEG threw in an extra $1 million), if, that is, Steve Wynn is allowed to increase his bid from $75 million, which he offered to do when making his presentation to the state last week.

SL Green/Hard Rock (along now with a company owned and controlled by Robert L. Johnson, the owner of Black Entertainment Television) provided some details of their plans in this press release. CEO Mark Holliday feels that the Hard Rock brand name gives it an edge.

..Holliday estimated the Hard Rock brand name will bring out more customers to Aqueduct to generate $4 billion in additional revenues – with 70% of that going to the state and racing interests, such as purses -- over the next 30 years compared to a non-brand name casino. [Bloodhorse]

Wynn apparently has more grandiose plans.

Racinos are grandstands with slot machines that are awful. I'm talking about entertainment and a place that's fun -- not Yonkers." [Times Union]

Hear that, harness guys? As far as Aqueduct Entertainment Group goes, the only specific I've seen about their proposal is that they'll have "Corona Italian ice and hotdog vendors like a New York City neighborhood, but not a six-star facility like Wynn proposes." Some cheap eats in case you have a bad night. [UPDATE: More details on the AEG plan here.]

AEG is said to have impressed the Queens Chamber of Commerce by guaranteeing local and minority jobs

AEG’s partners on its plans include the Rev. Floyd Flake’s Empowerment Development Corp. and Queens developer Levine Builders. While Mr. Wynn did not outline specific plans to use local vendors, he said he would be open to working with the community. Mr. Wynn acknowledged that he has made little effort to play Albany politics.

Meanwhile, SL Green, along with Hard Rock International, has divulged its plans to Community Board 10, which expressed its approval, said Marc Holliday, SL Green’s chief executive. [Crain's]

So, it would seem that the race is on, and perhaps these contenders have truly separated themselves from the rest of the pack. Of course, we don't really know anything for sure; and on Monday, the Daily News editorialized that the process is shaping up as one of the worst closed-door deals of all time.

The secrecy is unacceptable. Opening New York City to legalized gambling would be a momentous step, one that must not be taken in the dark. The demand for openness is only heightened by the millions of dollars that will be at stake every year. [NY Daily News]

A spokesperson for Governor Paterson told Crain's: "“Releasing specific information on the bids will impair the integrity of the evaluation process and hamper the state's ability to reach a timely decision based on a bidder’s first and most sincere offer." I'd be most curious to know exactly how it would impair the integrity of the process, considering that there hasn't much integrity in this entire affair since the Ad Hoc Committee conducted their transparent selection process so, so long ago.

Catching Up

Thanks to the readers who posted about the developments in Albany while I was away. In the next post we'll catch up on Aqueduct and the racino bidding. However, as I was sharing a single laptop and a balky wireless connection with the Head Chef and the two teens, I didn't get to respond to comments or emails during the trip and just wanted to catch up on a few things.

An anonymous reader wrote:

Alan - Curious how you felt about sight lines at Del Mar. I was there Thursday for the first time.
.....
I agree - I loved the direct access in the tunnel. But on the apron itself I felt like it was hard to get a good view of the race on the backstretch.

That is true at Saratoga as well but at least at Saratoga you can see them over there even if not real well. I felt like races starting on the backstretch were a rumor unless you were watching the video board.

It's true; the apron is low, and you can't see the backstretch even over the tote board, no less the giant video screen and the structures in the infield. However, unlike this reader, I did not find this track to be "compact." Maybe that's because, after ten months of tracks that are more than half shuttered, any track with three full open levels seems spacious. I found that there were many places to watch the races without having to pay - free seating sections, and nobody hassled anyone for standing behind the boxes closer to the finish line. It was real laid back in that regard.

Not going to get into the Del Mar vs. Saratoga thing - they are totally different scenes and each track and locale has its advantages and disadvantages (though I can't think of any of the latter for Del Mar right at this moment). (Other than you can't see from the apron [though the Trakus screens are cool]).

Another reader wrote:

Wooohoooo! Lisa Lewis in the 6th at 22-1. Singled in P3's and on the nose makes for a great meet.
.....
Thanks for the diligent value hunting, and hope you had this one too. We all certainly owe you a beer if you are up at Saratoga next weekend!

Awesome!! I mean, I didn't pick that horse here (though my daughter did). But maybe you were just inspired by the blog in general, or picked up on some tidbit that I probably forgot. In any event, I'll take that beer!

McCarron wrote:

Full field results are often more formful than short fields, as 5,6,7 horse fields, etc., tend to produce plenty of unforeseen pace scenarios.

That's an interesting comment; instinctively, I'd think it would be the other way around. For example, with a bigger field comes a better chance of an unexpected challenger on the lead. I suppose it would be true though in the case of a speed horse being able to get away with slower fractions. I wonder if there are any stats.

The Knight Sky writes, regarding synthetics:

It's just that there are too many people who have embraced it as the cure-all end all to what really ails thoroughbred racing: The perpetually weakened breed.

At a cost upwards of $80+ million at various racetracks around the country you would think that by now (in 2009) we would have incontrovertible evidence that it works while preserving the integrity of American main track racing.

It does no such thing.

A couple of points here. I think that it's now become accepted that synthetic tracks are not a cure-all end-all to problems with the breed. But should we still be judging them on those early lofty standards? Or is it time to temper the expectations and decide if the advantages they do bring, even if the always-fast tracks is the only one (which I don't believe to be the case), make the project worth continuing and expanding. I betcha there were plenty of people at Monmouth on Sunday who might have liked it there.....and I know, grass races still come off, but I betcha far less of the runners would have scratched.....not to mention we could do without the speed bias there too.

Secondly, I don't agree that it doesn't preserve the integrity of main track racing....at least not in every sense. I just spent a week at a synthetic track, and if you didn't know about it, you wouldn't even know the difference. And I thought the races were quite integrity-filled integrity-ish integrityful....y'know, had a lot of integrity. As I've said, 99% of racing do not have championship implications. They're just horse races, and they're just fine on synthetics as far as I'm concerned.

- Closed out with another losing day on Saturday at Del Mar, but easily profitable for the trip. Got nosed out of the late Pick Three when Starlacks nailed Strawberry Tart at the wire of the San Clemente, ouch. However, as you might have noticed, I did have the late Pick Four at Saratoga. My winnings on the dollar bet were modest but still highly satisfying, particularly my specific dis of Charitable Man, whose rabid and misguided cult made their hero an improbable 6-5. An anonymous reader wrote:

Cant wait for CM to run again against lesser so I can play against.

We're certainly in agreement there.

Saratoga Monday

In the first, Turner Falls (10-1) drops in class and cuts back in distance for Steve Klesaris. This three-year old daughter of Northern Afleet raced well at this six furlong distance at a higher level on the inner track at the Big A over the winter. This may be Saratoga in the summertime, but no one in this field could touch the since-unbeaten Softly Spoken, to whom Turner Falls ran second in March. Hoping for enough pace from the likes of Sophisticated Lass, Bikini, and Partners Star to set up a late run. Gracious Victory (3-1) ships in from Delaware for Anthony Dutrow, off to a flying start at 6-3-1-2, and looks the logical choice with Ramon.

Good luck with that early pick four - four maiden races, three for juveniles and the other at a mile and a half, ha ha.

In the 6th, Silvercup Baby (10-1) was on a roll with jockey Cornelio Velasquez during the spring with two easy main track wins; returns to that surface after two tries on grass, and the jockey sticks around for trainer Carl Domino. Karakorum Fugitive (7-2) also returns to the main and has the Beyers to take this if she handles the cutback in distance. Dance Gal Dance (5-2) looks like lone speed but could be gasping for breath in deep stretch. Doremifasollatedo (3-1) could be a classic case of a two-year old filly not going on at three; will be a bit overbet on her name too.

Picking Four, Flying Home

In the 8th at Saratoga, the state-bred Lake Luzerne, hopefully on the grass, Sonic Sound (15-1) could be sitting on an improved effort for trainer/owner Charlton Baker. This four-year old daughter of Sligo Bay (Sadlers Wells) made her 2009 debut in rousing fashion, breezing through the state-bred allowance conditions with two come-from-behind wins. Then she had no shot in a slow-paced open allowance, and in an off-the-turfer we can disregard. In her last, she was hard held at the back of the pack before exploding 5-6 wide on the turn and missing by a half length to the improved Why West. Jockey switch shows that barn means business today; live one at long odds in the Pick Four opener.

Vivi's Book (12-1) was 5-1 in the Why West race mentioned above, waited for room that never materialized. Four-year old daughter of Lycius has improved since switching to the live Rodrigo Ubillo barn, and Johnny V hops aboard. Here Comes Rita (8-1) encountered traffic problems in her 2009 turf debut; showed determination winning on a soft course last fall and gets reunited with Garcia. Graded stakes placed Chestoria (7-2) is the class of the field, but seems to be sputtering after running her best races a year ago. Barclay Tagg has had a tough time keeping Pastel Gal (5-1) on the racetrack and she has a bad post. Love Cove (3-1) also shows a lot of recent layoff lines and two disappointing efforts in 2009; strong stand against in a race which I think calls for a different point of view.

I'll come back to the 9th, the Diana. The 10th is the Jim Dandy, and a particularly ponderous edition this year. The top four choices in the morning line are a combined 0-for-five around two turns. That has me peeking at a couple others. Miner's Escape (15-1) was on a straight line of improvement since stretching out over the winter before running in the Belmont; could be set to bounce back here for Zito. Flat Bold (10-1) is on the improve for Kiaran McLaughlin and Ramon Dominguez for West Point Thoroughbreds. This son of Flatter (AP Indy) is 0 for two around two turns himself, but comes off a career high Beyer and seems set to move further forward should he handle the distance of course. I loved Kensei at 6-1 in the Dwyer; not so much at 5-2 here; still, he handles the route on pedigree and can't be eliminated so easily. Convocation (4-1) had his only poor effort around two turns at Gulfstream; viewing with skepticism here. I don't like the overrated Charitable Man for the same reasons I didn't in the Belmont.....though his 4-1 morning line seems like a fair price (certainly more reasonable than the still underlaid 9-2 he went off in the Belmont).

The 11th features dropdowns Stevil (7-2) from Zito and Hype (3-1) from Pletcher. Both of these barns are usually honest with droppers such as these - decent horses who just don't make the stakes grade. Pletcher is 30% over the last three years first time for a tag; Zito is 7 for just 19 (18%), but 3-2-1 in his last six. So I expect both or either to run well. I'll also have to throw in Liscaroll (8-1), second off the layoff from Weaver, mostly because I can't let that barn beat me in the last leg if I make it that far.

Back to the Diana, I personally need a single somewhere along the line; and this, to me, is a case of either singling Forever Together, or having to go four deep with the evenly-matched Carribean Sunset, My Princess Jess, and Rutherienne. Since those three have thus far proven to be a cut below Grade 1 material while the favorite clearly makes the grade, I'll close my eyes and hope to get by with one.

So here we go, a potentially lucrative, while slightly wacky and probably a highly unlikely pick four....but it's all just fun, right?

Race 8: 1/2/6/8
Race 9: 10
Race 10: 2/3/6
Race 11: 1/6/8

$36 for a buck.

- Of course, as has been the case, by the time I scrape myself off the beach and actually make it to Del Mar, the above sequence will be long over. I'll have to watch the races on Cal Racing when we get back on the redeye Sunday morning. No luck for me on Friday, thanks in large part to Colonel John. He was 2-1 in his turf debut, and that's a bet against for me every time - the name horse taking money first time on a new surface. Just goes to show you that nothing is foolproof in this game. I had the second and third place finishers very well-boxed, damn, and would make the bet again if they ran the race 100 times. Having said that, good to see last year's Travers winner back in form.

Thanks for checking out the site during this trip, and thanks to the readers who provided updates on the Aqueduct racino situation. I'll catch up on that during the week. Until then, good luck and have a great weekend!

It's The Weather, Stupid

There's this guy who loudly hawks what I thought was a tip sheet in the grandstand at Del Mar; for just 50 cents - "it's the cheapest thing you'll buy all day" - and that's for damn sure - "I got selections for all the races, just had the first two races, and how easy can it get?" Been listening to this spiel since we got here, so I figured I'd check it out. I figured for fifty cents, I couldn't be disappointed....but I was. What he's really selling is the local North County Times newspaper with the paper turned to the racing page with the selection box and the graded entries. There's some creative marketing that the newspaper industry needs these days. Maybe a guy from the NY Times could stand in Times Square promising all the inside dope on what to do in NYC for just two bucks (the cheapest thing you'll buy there all day) with the paper turned to the movie listings.

But I'm gonna get revenge by quoting from a story in the paper without a link (it's not online anyway). There was yet another fatality (different article) at Del Mar on Thursday morning, and that makes seven, six on Poly, four of those in the morning. However, Doug O'Neill, who has lost a horse here, was quoted in Thursday's article in the NC Times as saying that the track is "in great shape."

"The one thing I have learned from this experience is that I might get my horses down here earlier and get them used to the track. It's just a different surface than Hollywood Park. The horses dig into this track more. It's more demanding but it's safe."

This is all a learning experience for the industry to be sure, and perhaps we're learning that it wasn't such a great idea to have such different surfaces in play. According to Del Mar's VP Tom Robbins, the trainers are not complaining about the surface. "The trainers would be hanging on my door, but they haven't asked for a meeting."

Track president Joe Harper said:

"It ain't the track's fault....There's not much we can control in the mornings. We can control it a little bit in the afternoons, but there are a lot of sore horses." [NC Times]

That's the type of statement that could get the trainers to ask for that meeting after all. He's either blaming them for working out sore horses, or, perhaps, providing a commentary on the general state of the horse population in the third year of the synthetic mandate.

- I was going to pick Kiawah Cat in the Lake George at Saratoga today, but I see that it's all rainy and sloppy there. At this writing, it's the only grass race which hasn't been taken off, but that can change given a look at the weather map. We can debate the relative merits of Saratoga and Del Mar from here to next Derby day....but one might say "It's the weather, stupid." How many different ways can one say that it's just perfect out here every single day.....and I don't know if it's been at all so by local standards as there's been a fair amount of clouds around. It's damn near paradise as far as I'm concerned. And we still have today and tomorrow to go.

Your favorite lefty blogger has now had four winning days in four tries here on the left coast. On Thursday, a brief appearance in deference to the Head Chef's birthday, I managed to bail out on my last bet, cashing a saver exacta on the 7th which turned out to be pretty lucrative. I had Big Bad Leroybrown keyed on top, but the exacta returned a generous $61.80 when he fell short to class-dropping Paul's Hope ($8); and I had that enough times to get me easily in the positive column for the day.

- For those of you back in New York, some good music both upstate and down. On Saturday night, the Yeah Yeah Yeahs are at Northern Lights in Clifton Park, about halfway between Albany and Saratoga on the Northway as you probably know. The band will be fresh off an appearance at the All Points West festival this evening along with Vampire Weekend, Jay Z, The National, and Q-Tip, who I saw for free at Central Park a couple of weekends ago. And Polvo performs at the South Street Seaport in NYC tonight. Guess I need to add the weather permitting to that one.

Here, the Wailers will play after the card at Del Mar, which starts at 3 PM. They're all prepared with all the No Smoking signs, as they prohibit the lighting up of anything in an attempt to ban all the pot smoking that went on last year. I have to ask why, if there is a perceived problem with people smoking pot, they would possibly schedule no less than four reggae concerts for their Friday night series!? That's like announcing that you want to ban gambling, and then scheduling a horse racing meet.

Del Mar Notes

Novato ($41.80) got his nose down on the wire to take an exciting blanket four horse photo in the 7th on Wednesday; a big win for me. I'm having a decent run of luck, maybe I should spend the rest of the summer here? Nothing fancy in this case - just a plain old overlay on a horse with steadily improving figs, the last one of which put her right in the mix on paper....at least to me. This four-year old daughter of Bartok is out of a Crafty Prospector half-sister to the Grade 1 winner Degenerate Gal.

Novato was part of a series of longshots throughout the Pick Six sequence; but one bettor managed to hit five and collect over $44,000 - nice consolation there!

Wolf Tail ($37.40) got up late to take the state-bred Graduation Stakes for trainer Doug O'Neill. This is a juvenile son of Strive, a son of Deputy Minister who won four of 24 career races, and who must no longer be with us on this planet or in this country since he's not listed on the stallion directory sites.

Seemed like a nice midweek crowd, as the track gave free grandstand admission (normally six bucks) to anyone who filled out a form with their address and email address. In return, I got a Del Mar Diamond Club card which I'm told is good for life, so hopefully I'll get a lot of use out of it. And hopefully, Del Mar will get a lot of use out of the marketing information they gathered from a mostly young crowd. Seems an effective strategy, and it ain't rocket science.

But on the grim side is the news that six horses have already been fatally injured at the track, five of those on the Polytrack. That's not good, and if this surface is not safe, then it renders the whole debate moot. Del Mar officials are trying to rationalize this cluster as a natural occurrence related to the change of racing surface....but that seems like grasping at straws.

"I hate to be anthropomorphic, but think about if you were jogging on the side of the road and then you started jogging on the sand or the beach," Arthur said. "Apparently, you are putting different stresses on different structures when you change surfaces."

This story was the main headline in my daily Bloodhorse email today, and expect to see more about it in the racing press and blogosphere which wants the synthetic experiment to fail. I don't recall reading any headlines whatsoever about, for example, last year's Presque Isle meet which produced only four fatalities from some 5,677 starters.

- Jess Jackson said "maybe, maybe not" when asked if he would have raced Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell had they not, at his behest, raised the purse from $1 million to $1.25 million. And you wonder why I'd like to see his filly get her butt kicked? Maybe he'll change his mind about the Breeders Cup if they raise the purse of the Ladies Classic to $2.25 million?

Are Full Fields Full Of It?

Racing resumes here in Southern California on Wednesday after a two-day break; and Hank Wesch reported in the San Diego Union Tribune that it's the first time since 1946 that a Monday has been dark. Hollywood Park couldn't even sustain five days a week; so far at least, the field sizes here have been pretty good. While having breakfast out on Monday morning, I overheard a trainer noting that the extra day off certainly doesn't help him pay the bills; he can probably sympathize with the California state employees being furloughed three days a month as part of the budget finally signed off on by Governor Arnold on Tuesday.

From a vacationing horseplayer's standpoint, the two days are a welcome chance to explore the beautiful surroundings, thus helping to recharge oneself for a full five days of racing ahead. No shortage of things to do around here, even if only to hang at the ocean right here in Solana Beach. The water temperature here is absolutely perfect; bracing for just an instant beore giving way to delightful We also did some hiking and swimming at Torrey Pines State Park, checked out the scene at La Jolla Cove, and visited the Old Town and Gaslamp Quarter sections in San Diego.

Two days off would be no problem in Saratoga either. Maybe the subject for another post back east; there is plenty to do as well, especially if you're willing to devote at least a couple hours of scenic driving in order to reach some very worthwhile destinations.

However, maybe you don't have the time for any extracurricular activities because you're too busy handicapping 134 potential starters for ten races. NYRA did some self-back patting when the card was released back what seems like weeks ago, and it's well-deserved. Field size is reflective of the vitality and attractivness of a racing program, and tracks will trumpet their successes in that regard. It also means increased handle, especially I'd imagine in the multi-race sequences for which there are no free squares.

Accordingly, I've read a lot of people singing the praises of the oversized fields...but who besides NYRA, jockeys and their agents really actually like it? Trainers and owners know they have a better shot at purse money with short fields. Durkin has to hate it. The starting gate crew should sleep well Wednesday night. And how about public handicappers, especially those people who write the Closer Look blurbs in the Form!? They have to write up all 16 in the grass races with the main track only....hope they get paid by the horse.

Us horseplayers say we love full fields. But do you really like them this large race after race? Don't you multi-race wager guys especially need a break from time to time....One race, at minimum, which you can confidently single or double up at most? To be perfectly honest, eight to ten is full enough for me; start getting to 12 and 14 and my head starts to spin. People say you get better prices, but does any premium on a horse you like properly compensate for the increased dose of random element injected with each additional entry?

A Skimming Special

When we were here a couple of summers go, I posted this picture which showed the spectacular view we had from the bedroom. This year....well, suffice to say that we were not quite as fortunate in that regard. Oh well....but still, it's just a short walk over to the bluffs and the hypnotic sight of the Pacific Ocean and the relentless surfers down below.

We do have a lot more room this year though in a spacious unit which features an odd variety of art and photos on the wall. One of them is of a horse.




Skimming (Nureyev) .....not exactly a household name, though most appropriate for this area considering that he won the Grade 1 Pacific Classic two years in a row (as well as the San Diego Handicap) (as I was reminded when I looked it up). He started his stud career in California in 2003, and he seems to have had a modest career, with ten stakes horses as of last November before being shipped off to British Columbia where he stood this year for $4,000 Canadian. It's not too surprising then that Skimming is not a name which I've at all noticed from my handicapping and perusal of pedigrees.

So, I found it to be a curious coincidence when, while handicapping before Sunday's Cal-Bred California Dreamin' Stakes, I noticed that Dewey's Special, one of my top contenders coming off two solid wins following a long layoff for Ron Ellis, was sired by none other than the stallion featured in our condo. Better yet, when I mentioned this to the Head Chef (joining me, along with the two teens in a surprise appearance), she pointed out that Dewey's Special was the #7 horse, and that we are staying in unit #7.

OK, well, that's just weird. I'm not at all a hunch-bet guy; in fact, I probably never would have noticed without the Head Chef's help. She's good with stuff like that. But sometimes you just have to go with the flow, I mean, c'mon. Unfortunately, there seemed to be a lot of people there that were staying in a room #7 with a picture of Skimming on the wall, because Dewey's Special, 8-1 in the morning line, was the second choice at 3-1 behind Bold Chieftain, one of several favorites that seemed like total throwouts to me during the two days of racing I saw here over the weekend. When you're right and those horses are running out consistently, that's like the batter who's seeing grapefruits at the plate. Doesn't mean you're gonna win, but it does mean that you're taking some good rips and getting an inherent overlay on nearly any other horse in the field.

Times like these when I wish I was the type that could just throw $1000 bucks on a horse like this and have a great story to tell along with having paid for most of the trip. Of course, most of the time, it's a good thing that I'm not that kind of bettor. So, I had to depend on exotics to make some real money, and I got extremely lucky when 12-1 Nitro Active won the random back and forth head bob from longest-shot-in-the-field Bert's Law to complete an exacta worth $83.60. You gotta win some of those some of the time, right?

My daughter picked out Millennia ($46) in the paddock, so I guess she'll be back, right? She and the Head Chef's daughter do enjoy the action, and are possible for future degeneracy, though hopefully not too much. Misinjennuous, the fastest horse in the world at 4-5, ran big to be second. If I had read Brad Free's analysis before the race, I would have known that she was "touted as something special..." and all, for just $90.000 this past March. She's a daughter of Tapit, out of a Mt. Livermore mare, and a half-sister to the morbidly-named Fatal Bullet; and given that that fact was right there in black and white in the Closer Look column in the Form, I'm certainly surprised that she went off at that price.



This is the paddock at Del Mar. To me, it's the center of activity at this racetrack. Crowds gather early on both the grandstand and clubhouse sides; others gaze down from terrace restaurant/bars on either side, and more still from other vantage points from high above. The tiered viewing area surrounding the walking ring and its modest size help to make it probably the most intimate paddock I've ever seen.

I saw that Charlie Hayward mentioned the concept of a tiered viewing area at Saratoga, and one reader reacted with revulsion - Upstate Belmont. UGH !.

Seems to me that it would be quite an undertaking; at least assuming that they just would not just line the paddock with tiered stands - that would be just plain ugly given the large circumference you're dealing with here. If they did construct a concrete hill from which the viewing area can scale down like the one at Belmont, it would eliminate a lot of picnic space and change the entire character of the backyard and douse any remnants of memories of the days when the horses were saddled under trees amongst the backyard crowd.

Besides, the paddock is not the center of the Saratoga universe in my view. Most people don't go there, and, other than a few select races, there's plenty of room for those who make the effort....not to mention that you can get an unusually intimate and unique look at all of the horses on the path as they make their way over to be saddled. So, I'm going to stick with tradition on this one and vote no.

Sunday Morning Notes (Left Coast Version)

This is a cool place to watch the races at Del Mar - they let you stand right in the pathway which leads from the paddock to the track....can even dip your toe into the Polytrack if you'd like. Can't actually see most of the race live from there; but it's right on the finish line, and besides, there's that giant screen, and I mean giant in this case, wow. Also, just to the left on the infield tote are side by side Trakus representations; one, the standard chiclet format, and the other an animated recreation of the race itself.

I know that racing entities such as NYRA have cited the cost of Trakus as the main reason that they don't have it....but I have to think that it would create some value for them. You often see newbies at the track watching in the stands or on the apron, and they're like "where is he?" "Is that him?" "Go 7, go 7" (when the 7 is 15 lengths behind). They probably just shrug afterwards and go 'oh, that was nice.' I would think that they'd have a much fuller experience being able to see exactly how the race unfolds, and perhaps they'd be encouraged to play some more or come back? In any case, it's just unfortunate as well as surprising that Trakus has still yet to spread beyond the three tracks which rolled it out in the first place.



TVG is here of course....but, really, wouldn't you think they could have spent a little more money and gotten themselves a decent banner for their 10th anniversary? Peb was actually there on Saturday for a ceremony celebrating the unveiling of his new mural. They could have gotten him to do something like having Todd Schrupp and Ken Rudulph popping out of an anniversary cake or something.

The ceremony featured some of the trainers and jockeys, both current and retired, that are featured in the mural...and I look at these old riders that are still around and just have to marvel that they rode in all of those races and managed to stay in one piece. They probably deserve a spot in the Hall of Fame just for that.

I was quite surprised to see ESPN out in full force for the Eddie Read....guess the network had absolutely nothing else to do. Global Hunter ($30.20) showed that it's not just on the Poly that you get surprising results (though a post-race view at the past performances shows that he wasn't all that incongruous, as is often the case with the benefit of hindsight)....and also, for me, showed how you can be so right about so many things in this game and still come away with nothing to show for it. I was all in against favored Monterrey Jazz, and had runner-up Awesome Gem squarely on top, and in triples with the third and 4th finishers. Could have been a trip-making score right there on the first day....but, no. And, in the 9th, I had the winner Position A ($10) in the correct position A, but got split in the exotics by Bestdressed, from the red-hot John Sadler barn; two more winners on the day for him and 5-2-3 in 14 starts at the young meet thus far.

However, I did score a straight win bet on Victor's Cry ($16.40) in the 5th, so I ain't complaining.

First-time juvenile Tiny Woods ($5.20) was the proverbial fastest horse in the world; the 5-1 third choice in the morning line, he was sent to the post at 8-5 for Baffert. And this son of the trainer's Roman Ruler, out of an Aggressive Chief half to Toccet, showed both speed and grit, blazing out to the lead in an opening quarter of 21.91, and hanging on grimly while tiring down the lane. Just like a dirt race. That's the 8th winner for the rookie sire, currently number 2 on the first-year sire earnings list.

And now it's off to the beach, so see ya later, have a fantastic day.