Darley's Boys

- Great cover shot on the new Bloodhorse, featuring the Darley Boys - Street Sense (Front and Center), with Hard Spun, Discreet Cat, and Any Given Saturday. Street Sense is looking straight at the camera with a quizzical look, as in: C'mon man, what is this place, where's the rail, where's Calvin, get me outta here, there's nothing to do! Where's that big guy, I want another shot at him..! You never know; he could prove to be disinterested and return to the races. But actually, his...er, apparatus is on display in the photo, and I'd guess he'll probably find his way. Street Sense, at $75,000, is the highest priced stud amongst next year's rookie squad; Hard Spun is second at $50,000, and Any Given Saturday tied for third (with Corinthian) for $40,000; Discreet Cat will stand for $30,000.

Smarty Jones has been occupying attractive two page spreads in the magazine of late, and there he is again. The ad points out that he's the Leading First Crop Sire of Yearlings for 2007. That's one sire list I don't think I've ever seen in Bloodhorse. I think it might be kind of an unofficial, made-up list. But you get the idea.

Smarty Jones colts brought $650,000 at the Saratoga Select Yearling Sale and $600,000 at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale and ten of his colts and fillies brought more than $300,000 as yearlings. [Three Chimneys Farms]

34 of his yearlings sold at an average of a bit over $200,000 at sale this year.

- If anyone at Hollywood Park had a sense of humor, they'd change the purse of Saturday's Grade 1 Cash Call Futurity to $744,375, which represents a year's worth of interest if you were to borrow the actual $750,000 in prize money from the sponsoring company.

Massive Drama was a universal tip for Baffert/Zayat winning his debut at 8-5 at Monmouth on Breeders Cup Preview day. He'd been entered the prior month at Belmont, and I wrote on September 6 that his first crop sire Kafwain was off to a nice start with six winners, and two stakes winners. Now, three months later, Kafwain has 12 winners and four stakes winner, including Massive Drama, who became the sire's only graded stakes horse thus far when he took the Hollywood Prevue. Kafwain (Cherokee Run) is number 11 on the first-year sire list, having a solid freshman season for his $10,000 fee at Darley. Not front cover of Bloodhorse stuff, but pretty good nonetheless.

But this will be the first try around two turns for Massive Drama, whereas Colonel John, with whom he figures to contend for favoritism, won the Real Quiet by three at this distance on this track. I'm looking back at my impressions of that race:

He was ridden with extreme confidence by Corey Nakatani, who allowed him to drop back to sixth on the backstretch. There had to be some anxious moments to those who backed him at 7-10, as he seemed to be boxed along the rail with a lot of traffic in front of him. But Nakatani held the rail, and exploded to the lead after finding a seam in the two path turning for home.

When I went back today to look at it again, I wasn't quite as blown away, to be honest; the horse did save a lot of ground relative to the rest of the field. Still, he looks like the legitimate favorite off that effort.

The Toddster is hitting .333 at Hollywood; seven winners from 21 starters. Monba is undefeated in two starts, and stretches out to two turns. But unlike Baffert's colt, Monba could offer some value. He's by Wavering Monarch Maria's Mon out of a half sister, by Easy Goer, to the Alcibiades winner Silent Account; Gomez picks this one out of Pletcher's trio. Eaton's Gift is also owned by Zayat, and also tries two turns, he for Dale Romans. His race two back on Oct 19 at Keeneland is a super-duper key race, having produced three winners and four runner-ups out of eight horses to run back. But being by Johannesburg out of a Carson City mare doesn't make me think he'll love the route.

I liked Shore Do as my longshot in the Juvenile based on his third place finish in the Norfolk. I explained why in this post. His distant 8th in the slop at Monmouth is a total throwout, and now he's switched to the barn of Bobby Frankel. So if I liked him there, I gotta like him here, especially off a string of solid works on the Cushion Track.

Belmont Opens

- In the opener of Belmont's fall meeting, note that Chameleon is making his second start in four days, and 4th in less than three weeks. None of them have been particularly successful, and I don't really expect that this will be much different. Maybe trainer David Jacobson, having been away from the game for 25 years, isn't aware that you don't run horses like this anymore. Tactical Gold is the 5-2 morning line favorite, and I think that would be an extremely fair price. He looks as if he could be a suspicious dropdown running for a 25K tag after missing by just a nose in 35K company, and having been claimed for that price three races back. But since that claim, he earned $6,000 running third, $9,000 from that second place finish, and would make another $24,000 with a win here. Add that to the $25,000 I expect he'll be claimed for, and I think owner Larry Carter will have done pretty darn well.

Two-year olds in the second, and look who's still hanging around the east coast. Bob Baffert, who won with all three of his juvenile first-timers at Saratoga (including Maimonides, out of BC consideration with sore shins), starts Massive Drama for Zayat Stables. Like the others, he sure didn't seem to dislike the Polytrack during the morning hours. This one is by the rookie sire Kafwain (Cherokee Run), standing at Darley for $10,000. This stallion is off to a nice start with six winners, and two stakes winners. Massive Drama, purchased by Zayat for $485,000 last year, and he must have looked really nice because there ain't much on the catalog page. But Kent D. takes the mount, and we obviously ignore at our own risk.

In the third, One in a Romp has come on for Allen Jerkens with two strong closes, including a ridiculous eight wide sweep to run second two back. But the real reason I mention him is because the DRF pp's I printed out on Thursday show that this horse worked three furlongs that very morning. And it really struck me that you almost never see horses work a day before the race anymore. Really, do you ever see that? Used to be not that uncommon at all, and I remember being able to look them up somewhere at the track on race day, perhaps in the track program, I don't quite remember.

Another workout pattern you rarely see anymore - though I think more often than works the day before the race - is to see them on consecutive days. Me and my racetrack crew back in the day would always bet on Angel Penna Sr. when one of his horses worked that way. That was a solid angle as I recall. Anyway, Richard Schosberg has the ML fave in that 3rd race with Papa's Kara, and it will be interesting to see if barns that were hot upstate carry that form over here. Schosberg finished the meet with six winners in 27 starts, plus another 13 in the money for an ITM percentage of 70%.

If it sounds like Saratoga thus far, the 5th is a $10K claimer, so welcome back to Elmont. Several in here are dropping sharply, not only from their recent races but from their claim price as well. But the latter does not apply to Archie Boy. Like the aforementioned Tactical Gold, this one earned some minor awards after being claimed, and drops from 20K company. But he's merely dropping to the price at which he was claimed. He's actually raced quite well against better, and I think he'd be a bargain at his 6-1 morning line for Leah Gyamarti, who had a nice finish upstate with a couple of wins and two more ITM in the last two weeks.

Linda Rice, the hottest trainer of all in the last week or so upstate, has Meriwether Jessica in the 6th, a baby race for NY-breds. This daughter of the $10,000 sire Freud sold for $95,000 earlier this year, and is listed as the 5-2 choice. Though all of her winners during her six race win streak were on the grass, she did have a first-timer win on the dirt earlier in the meet; and today's rider Corny V was on board for seven of her 13 wins at the Spa. Cherekovsky (Mayakowsky) was entered and scratched on Aug 30, and then worked a solid three furlongs at Monmouth on 9/2. She shows up here with Desormeaux, who's won two out of his seven engagements for trainer Carl Deville.

That's all I got....good luck if you're playing opening day.

Getting it Right

- Thousands pack Fair Grounds for Derby Preview Day. [WWLTV.com] Churchill doesn't announce attendance figures, but this article estimates the crowd at Fair Grounds on Saturday as "over 7,000," which is very good for that track. But more significantly:

Officials at the Fair Grounds say they have recovered almost 100 percent since Hurricane Katrina, due partly because of revenue that slots and off track betting are generating.
....
According to numbers from the Louisiana State Police Gaming Division, slots at the Fair Grounds have been generating more and more money as the months go by.

In September, slots brought in more than $360,000. In October, that number jumped to $1.2 million.

The most recent numbers from December show it at more than $1.7 million.

Again, while NY racing is in its current state of shambles, concerning both thoroughbreds and trotters, racing and racinos, Louisiana is an example of what can happen when the business model makes sense. Fair Grounds' OTB's (and, presumably, the rescue workers) helped to support the track when it was ravaged by Katrina, and continues to play a constructive role. And its racinos, whose low tax structure was blasted by legislators considering slots in other states, continue to generate revenue for all concerned. 18.45% of something beats 70% of nothing any day of the week. [Hat tip to Albany Law School's Racing and Gaming Today]

- We've heard a lot about how horsemen in Southern California have been patient with Santa Anita management as they attempt to repair its racetrack, and supportive overall of the synthetic track mandate in the state. But Ahmad Zayat has had enough, even as the Cushion Track at Santa Anita has been repaired (we hope).

Ahmed Zayat has removed his horses from training in Southern California, transferring them from the barn of Bob Baffert to Steve Asmussen, Bill Mott, and Dale Romans.

Baffert trained six horses for Zayat, including Grade 3 winner Massive Drama and promising three-year-olds J Be K and Maimonides. Massive Drama finished third in the San Vicente Stakes (G2) on Sunday at Santa Anita Park.

Baffert and Zayat’s racing manager, Sobhy Sonbol, said issues with the synthetic surfaces in place at Southern California three major tracks led to the decision. “He got frustrated with the track [surface] situation,” Baffert said. [Thoroughbred Times]

Funny that he would pull out now, after the work was completed on the Cushion Track. And the reviews have been rather positive.

"I love it," [Garrett] Gomez said.

"It's great," jockey Joe Talamo said. "It has settled in and is even better today than it was yesterday."

Said jockey Michael Baze: "It's certainly better than it was, more cushiony, which is good for the horses. The question now is how it will hold up the next time it rains."
.....
Said trainer Richard Mandella: "Sometimes you have to make a lot of mistakes to get something right." [LA Times]

Perhaps we'll be repeating Mandella's quote someday soon regarding the situation in New York! Not everybody was yet convinced about the Cushion Track though. Guess who? "It's too early to tell," [Bob Baffert] said. "Some horses like it, some don't."

- A commenter writes:

...The chart for Phillip X reads "Phillip X fell and broke down in deep stretch." No mention of how this horse gutted his way to the lead. Around a year ago, a similar incident took place at the Big A with a filly named LC Tornado. She was 15-1 and was about to win the race in deep stretch and she broke down in horrible fashion. At the time, the chart writer made no note of her winning effort. I realize it's a tough world, etc etc, but this is so lame. These horses give their lives and the chart writer should at least discuss the effort that took place. I realize these guys make a small paycheck, but they should be more passionate for the game. I guess I have to write Equibase and have them change the chart just like I did a year ago with poor LC Tornado..

News and Notes - January 16

- Thanks a million to Steve in NC, and this Mr. Anon for some excellent insight into the trends at the current Big A meeting. Great stuff, and good for me since I admit that I tend to tune out from the local details this time of the year and turn my attention elsewhere. Just maybe, the non-compelling product up here is one of the reasons I don't sense much angst at all over the upcoming January 23 franchise deadline; certainly not as compared to the run-up to December 31. Again, I understand how important it is to the local horsemen who stick around that racing continues, and I certainly don't mean to disrespect them. But I don't think that too many racing fans (except I guess for the likes of Steve in NC) would be too upset if the place went dark for awhile.

One of the real conundrums of the simulcasting era is that tracks, such as Aqueduct in January and February, offer product that is far more compelling than its own. I'd still make my way to Aqueduct just for Gulfstream, Santa Anita, Fair Grounds, and Oaklawn even if there was no live racing. No TVG/HRTV exclusivity problems there. This is one of my favorite times on the racing calendar. I will often arrive after 3 PM, just to catch the live late double and, especially, the simulcasts that follow. The atmosphere can't be beat - it's hardcore, and with an edge of sleaze, just the way we like it. With the few hundred bettors in relatively cramped quarters, you can feel that the sport really does have a pulse, as opposed to those dreary October days at Belmont, when the few thousand fans barely make a dent in the massive plant.

The seeming lack of deadline urgency may also simply be because we're all really sick of this whole ordeal. The real drama is gone, and the remaining issues - the NYRA board and slots at Belmont - are not at all compelling to you and me, at least in the short term with respect to the latter. Whether or not the percentage of slot money devoted to purses is really an issue that's being discussed is not at all clear. Matters that really could have made a difference have been ignored. Enough already.

According to this report in the Saratogian, there's little concern about a long-term stoppage, at least as reflected in the summer rental market. Charles Hayward told reporter Paul Post that another temporary extension is possible, as long as negotiations are moving forward. Yippee.

- Turning to Gulfstream, you can't get much more detailed analyzes of the day-to-day racing than in Steve Zacks' weekly reviews at Brisnet. Maybe too much, at least in the case of his daily track bias commentary; over-analysis of supposed biases is one of my real pet peeves. At one point, Zacks writes: "I would suggest that if it is possible to figure out whether or not the pace will be contested is a big help in assessing where the winner will come from." Well, yeah!! My view is that such pace analysis almost always trumps what many perceive as a track bias. Regardless, these columns are an excellent tool for those who can't be there everyday.

- Rags to Riches is in "light training," having just arrived in Florida, and the Toddster is in no rush.

"We will gradually increase her training; the most logical scenario is running her sometime during the Belmont spring meet. Our obvious focus is for races in the summer and the fall of the year with the Breeders' Cup (in October at Santa Anita) being the main goal." [Albany Times Union]

Pletcher told Brad Free that Ravel does not like the Cushion Track at Santa Anita, at least in its current composition.

"Garrett [Gomez] said when he tried to quicken, the ground was slipping away from him."
.....
Pletcher said Ravel would be nominated to the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap on March 1, and the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap on March 8 at Fair Grounds. [Daily Racing Form]

Santa Anita officially announced that they will go on with a reconstituted Cushion Track surface. The LA Times reports that, should rain arrive before the Sunshine Millions on January 28 (which is before the resurfacing will be completed), those races may be moved to Golden Gate, which is also owned by Magna.