Go Out or Stay In?

More on Greeley Galaxy's work today from Thoroughbred Times:

Glen Stute monitored the work for his father, trainer Warren Stute, and was all smiles after the son of Mr. Greeley galloped out a half-mile in :47.80.

“He looked awesome, didn’t he?” Stute asked on his way back to the stakes barn. “He’s ready to run.”

Stute said Wednesday morning that when Greeley’s Galaxy arrived from Churchill Downs, that he would work him in :36, but the colt seemingly made his own plan once he got on the track.

“We got out there, and it was like the horse said, ‘Let’s roll,’” exercise rider John Lloyd said. “It was a little quicker than we had planned, but they wanted to get him a tune up, and they got it. When they go as easy as he was going, you don’t try to sloe them down.”

There seem to be a lot of people jumping on this bandwagon right now, and I imagine that this will, rightly or wrongly, fan the flames.

Afleet Alex was also on the wet track, among the few that weren't limited to walking the shedrow. "You have to do something with them, they can’t sit in the stall all day," said Ritchey. (TT) I dunno, he gallops five miles every day, how about some chess? Or he could read this column by Eric Alterman and wonder along with me where the so-called liberal media has been since the release of the Downing Street Memo. At least one newspaper is asking questions. (via Daily Kos)

Out for a Swim

- Despite the pouring rain at Pimlico, where up to 2 inches of rain are predicted for today and this evening, Greeley’s Galaxy went out and zipped 3 furlongs in :34.87 just a day before the Preakness. Hmmm. On the other hand, Giacomo stayed dry, and trainer John Sheriffs explains.

"He had a good gallop yesterday….So we didn't need to go to the track today."

"I just want to make sure that I don't over train," he said. "The main thing is I don't want to take the race away from him. I always like to think that a horse has 'live legs.' I don't want his legs tired. Like when you have a strong workout, it takes a couple of days for your body to recover, so I think it's the same thing with a horse. I thought he looked real good. I thought he handled the surface. It's similar to Churchill Downs." [Bloodhorse]

So I guess Sheriffs wouldn't work a horse in :34.87 the day before a race. Both of GG’s post-Derby works have been in the slop, which he apparently relishes; that may raise the question of whether those works, which were significantly better than those before the Derby, were in fact aided by the wet track. He has a Tomlinson mud number of 347, which is not nearly tops in the field.

Rain, Rain Go Away!

It's apparently a washout in Baltimore today; with rain predicted to last all day. Jeff Siegel on HRTV last night, who seemed to have a familiarity with the track, said that it dries out quickly and not to worry about the Preakness. He assured viewers that as long as the rain clears out tonight as it's supposed to, the track will be fast tomorrow. Let's hope he's right.

Wise Guy and the Favorite

- I love the Daily Racing Form as much as anyone but sometimes the selection of tracks offered in the print edition can be just maddening. I picked up tomorrow’s edition, and it has Finger Lakes, Philly Park, and Delaware, but no Churchill Downs nor Hollywood. ARGHH! If I was going to Belmont tomorrow, I’d have to buy another edition there if I wanted to bet on those two tracks. On the other hand, I can’t be that much of a degenerate that I need anything other than tomorrow’s Preakness card, can I?

Anyway, it appears as if Greeley’s Galaxy is indeed the wise-guy horse, as he’s picked on top by Beyer, Dave Liftin, Mike Watchmaker, and Steve Klein. They all basically state the case for him I wrote about yesterday and that Steve Haskin also made, and I’ll comment further when I get around to making my final picks later today. So, I get the feeling he’ll be lower than his 15-1 morning line, perhaps significantly so. No one in the Form picks Closing Argument on top, and Brad Free and Byron King opt for Afleet Alex. There’s speculation in the paper that Giacomo could be as high as 8-1, but I’m sticking with my prediction that he won’t be more than 5-1. The Form analyses are here, but it's subscription only, or pick up the print edition.

Dick Jerardi in the Philly Daily News has a possible explanation to those who wonder why likely favorite Afleet Alex couldn’t win the Derby with an apparent perfect ground-saving trip (thanks to ready Jerry for the link).

To me, the big question is: Why didn't Afleet Alex finish? I think I know the answer, but my theory won't be played out until early tomorrow evening when they run the Preakness.

Last week's Sports Illustrated had a great shot of the first turn in the Derby. There are three horses together - Buzzard's Bay on the outside, Sun King on the inside and, in the middle, a horse that is all but obscured. That would be Afleet Alex. He was so much smaller than the others that you could barely see him.

Jeremy Rose did everything he could to give Alex a chance, but the 20-horse field is unforgiving. There is often no place to relax. Alex was caught in between horses almost the entire trip, what serious horse players call a "vice."

"Down the lane, I was in between the rail and a horse," Rose said yesterday. "That was about the only spot I wasn't between horses. The whole way around, I was getting bounced from both sides.

"It's just like you in a boxing match getting punched in the ribs and the kidneys and everything else. After a while, your legs just get weary. You take those kind of shots for that long at that speed, it takes something out of them."

Some people have criticized Rose for moving too soon in the race. For one thing, that’s the horse’s style; he’s just not a deep closer. His pp lines show that he may be 5th or 6th early on, but rarely much more than 3 lengths behind, and he makes his move by the final turn. That’s pretty much the race he ran in the Derby, the problem being that he had to expend more energy than usual just to stay in contact with the fast pace. Rose further defends his ride: "If you wait, then the holes disappear real quick on you. I had to use my horse to get in a couple of spots and sit and then go a little more. So I had to use him the whole way around the race track instead of just sitting there and making that one run."

- Ed Fountaine of the NY Post titles his short article on Going Wild today LUKAS: PARITY OR PARODY; and I’m not sure if he’s saying parody in reference to the race or to the trainer, who does seem to be a little wacky these days. On Going Wild’s outside post, he quotes Lukas as saying "I wanted to puke. I said 'We're (ruined). We might as well go home.'” I don’t think anyone would object to that. However, the horse figures to have a say in the outcome of the race by helping to set what should be an honest pace.

Oh yeah. Lukas has a website now too.

- OK, here's one guy who picks Closing Argument; MSNBC.com's Mike Brunker.

Preakness Notes - May 19

- Just caught Mike Smith on TVG, and he sounds extremely confident. “I really believe we haven’t seen the best of him; you guys oughta see the way he looks right now....I’m very confident he’s gonna run huge.” Ken Rudolph was cheering him on. I never posted about his having Giacomo in the Derby; it was pretty great TV when they caught him watching the finish. The whole TVG crew of he, Frank Lyons, and Todd Schrmph seem to be liking him, or at least believe he deserves far more respect than he’s getting. (“6-1, are you kidding me?”)

I’m still trying to figure this Preakness, but I don’t think I’m going to end up with Giacomo on top. I’d be happy if he wins whether I have him or not, so it’s almost like a hedge to not bet him. I’ll accept my losses if it means a big Belmont and a win for connections that have been classy and humble.

The Derby champ made his first appearance on the Pimlico track today. His exercise rider said he got a good hold of the track, ``and nothing seemed to bother him. He's a happy horse.''

Asked if he noticed any changes in Giacomo, [Frankie] Herrarte said: ``Other than getting bigger and stronger? Not really.'' [Bloodhorse]

- Maryland’s all-time leading trainer King Leatherbury says that the outside posts at Pimliclo are as bad as advertised.

"When you're betting on races, you discount the outside horse, because invariably when he comes into that first turn, he's going to lose ground," he said. "Even though you're trying to work your way in, there are horses inside of you. If they've got speed, they're going to come out there running and work their way over a bit. If they've got no speed, you can almost throw them out."

Including Giacomo?

"I would," Leatherbury said, adding, with a laugh, "Look, he's got the most important race in the world under his belt. So why should he get two races?" [Louisville Courier-Journal]

- Just caught a glimpse of Closing Argument on TVG galloping easily and comfortably over the Pimlico track today. Kiaran McLaughlin thinks he's going to get bet once people realize he was in the lead after a mile and 3/16s. My earlier estimates of 8-1 I believe were too high, but I'd be really surprised if he was less than 5-1 or if Giacomo is more than that price.

- It's supposed to pour in Baltimore tomorrow, but clear out by Saturday. Bummer for the stakes-filled Pimlico card tomorrow.

A Case for Greeley's Galaxy?

- It’s funny that after the Derby, Greeley’s Galaxy’s jockey Kent Desormeaux said of his trip: ``The only incident I had was breaking a little flat-footed, but it put me in perfect pace scenario spot. Tactically, I thought I was in a better situation than if he broke running…… I liked where I was. It was a nice spot.'' [Yahoo sports] Yet, a review of the race shows that his start was distinctly sluggish, he was very wide both turns and got stopped in the stretch after making a big move. That trip is cited by some who are making a case for him in the Preakness, including Steve Crist (for 2nd), Ray Kerrison of the NY Post, and Steve Haskin of Bloodhorse, who goes on to point out:

Approaching the top of the stretch, he pulled to within four lengths of the leaders, having made up close to 10 lengths, but was fanned way out to the middle of the track, getting hung 8-wide turning for home.

…..But he kept trying, and it wasn't until he got squeezed badly and was forced to take up at the three-sixteenths pole that Desormeaux decided to stop riding him and save him for another day. Although he finished 11th, beaten a respectable eight lengths, he was being virtually eased the entire final furlong, and no doubt would have been closer had Desormeaux persevered with him. [Bloodhorse]

Ray Kerrison, noting his poor start, says:

In the next six furlongs, he made up 11 lengths to get within four lengths of the leader, while the field was running the second-fastest six furlongs in the Derby's 131-year history.

"Greeley" must have run his 6 furlongs in about 1:07 and change. No wonder he tired a little in the stretch. [NY Post]

1:07 and change? I don't think so! Mr. Kerrison is simply misreading the chart. It wasn’t until the mile mark, not 6 furlongs, that Greeley got within 4 lengths, made possible in no small part by the fact that they were already slowing up front. He gained 11 lengths from the half mile to the mile mark in a half that went :50.50 and he wasn’t the only one gaining ground at that point – Noble Causeway, Wilko, Buzzard’s Bay to name three. And Giacomo gained even more ground during that time, yet he was able to sustain that rally despite being wide and changing paths in the stretch.

So I'm hard pressed to rate him over the Derby winner, who I don’t rate on top for the Preakness. Nonetheless, it was only his 5th start, the bad break put him in an unfamiliar position – he’d always been close to the lead – and the fact that Desormeaux stopped pushing him, and his subsequent 5f work in 1:00 1/5 indicates that he may be one Derby horse who came out of that race with something in reserve. So I have him under consideration for exotic tickets.

- One person who will be betting him is trainer Glen Stute, deputizing this week for his father Warren.

We took a whack at this horse, at that big price in the Kentucky Derby, yessir, and we're not finished yet. The higher the price, the better for me, and if his price is big again in the Preakness on Saturday, we'll send it in again." [NY Post]

- Have you yet seen anyone make a case for Afleet Alex?

- The Preakness is taking place against the backdrop of the Republicans' attempt in nearby D.C. to place the future of the nation’s judiciary firmly under the control of the radical religious zealots to whom they are beholden by abolishing the minority’s right to filibuster the most extreme of the president’s judicial appointments. I can only hope that whoever I end up betting is half as tough as Fighting Senator Harry Reid, who is steadfastly leading the Democrats’ resistance to this downright frightening gambit by the GOP to pervert the rules of the Senate and give the religious nuts a virtual blank judicial check. Reid delivered a passionate and eloquent address on the Senate floor today.

It is clear that the President misunderstands the meaning of the Advice and Consent Clause.  The word "Advice" means "Advice." President Clinton, consulted extensively with then-Judiciary Committee Chairman Hatch.  Senator Hatch boasts in his autobiography that he personally convinced President Clinton to nominate Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer to the Supreme Court instead of more controversial choices.  

In contrast, this President has never ever sought or heeded the advice of the Senate.  But now he demands our consent.  

That's not how America works.  The Senate is not a rubber stamp for the Executive branch. Rather, we're the one institution where the Minority has a voice and the ability to check the power of the Majority.

Go baby go. For those of you so inclined, please read the full text here, via Daily Kos.

Post Matters Or Maybe Not? Maybe?

- Bill Handleman presents this argument that the post position draw is in fact not that important:

Over the last seven years, four horses have won from outside posts. Real Quiet won from the 10, Point Given from the 11, War Emblem from the 8, Funny Cide from the 9. Or, you could look at it this way: three of the past four winners broke from an outside post.

Put another way, three of the five Preakness winners this century broke from outside post positions. How's that grab you? [Asbury Park Press]

On the other hand,

Only two No. 12s have won the Preakness — Kalitan in 1917 and Pleasant Colony in 1981 — and since 1909, horses farther out have never won. This analysis is skewed somewhat in that, since the first Preakness in 1873, only 23 horses have broken from outside the 12-hole. [LA Times]

Confused yet? I think that whatever history to which you want to prescribe, the outside posts can't help unless, again, the pace sets up like the Derby.

Handleman also takes a closer look at the fact that only one Derby non-starter, Red Bullet, has won since 1983.

Aside from the occasional contender who had a legitimate reason to be here — Rock Hard Ten last year, Touch Gold in 1997, Alydeed in 1992, and maybe Olympio in 1991 — none of the relatively recent Preakness horses who hadn't run in the Derby were actual contenders on the third Saturday in May.

Midway Road, who ran second two years ago, was a 20-1 shot. Magic Weisner, a local horse, was 45-1. Oliver's Twist, another local, split the Lukas-Lukas exacta of Timber Country and Thunder Gulch in 1995. He went off at 25-1.

- Is it just me, or does it sound to you like Wayne Lukas is becoming incoherent and in need of a little time off?

'I'm comfortable…. I don't feel overmatched here. Don't bet your kids' college money on him, but this race is so unpredictable.

''We have the same motivation as anybody else. Nobody can say that this is the horse to beat or these are the three horses. The superfecta is going to pay a lot again. Whoever you want to bet on, I'll book it. You guys have a heck of a job in this race. I'm not picking one horse because I don't want to look silly." [Boston Globe]

Post Matters

- No one paid much attention to the post positions for the Derby, but the draw for the Preakness may have been more significant.

In the past 20 years of the Preakness, 101 horses have started the mile-and-three-sixteenths race from post positions 8 through 14. Only four have won.

That, however, did not stop [oddsmaker Frank] Carulli from making Afleet Alex, breaking from the No. 12 post, the favorite at odds of 5-2.

"He's the most consistent of the group, and I was going to put him at 2-1 until he drew outside," Carulli said. [NY Times]

Wow, I can't see Alex as 2-1 from any post. Perhaps the draw is also why he made Closing Argument 5-1 3rd choice ahead of Giacomo, who will start from No. 13. Of course, if the Preakness pace is anything like the Derby, it probably wouldn’t matter if he started from the grandstand apron.

"We'll just let him break and hopefully watch them string out a bit," Shirreffs said. "Giacomo doesn't need to be far back; he can stay close. We'll just let him run his race, and we'll watch to see if it's good enough."

I doubt that he will be too close given his post. Although he was closer to the pace in his Derby preps, he would hang in the stretch, so I think perhaps closing from further back may be more his style. Or it may be his style only when they come home in trotting horse time.

- Lauren Stitch in the Form has a worthwhile piece on Derby flops who have bounced back to win the Preakness.

One of the most dramatic form reversals was Snow Chief's Preakness victory in 1986 after he finished 11th in the Derby. It was a prime example of a horse not liking a specific racing surface, and it happened in the Preakness four more times in subsequent years.

Hansel ran a dismal race in the 1991 Derby, finishing 10th, but returned to win the Preakness and Belmont. Pine Bluff was fifth in the 1992 Derby, but won the Preakness. Tabasco Cat, sixth in the 1994 Derby, also won the Preakness and Belmont. Louis Quatorze, who floundered over Churchill's surface in the 1996 Derby and finished 16th, scored a brilliant victory in the Preakness.

There’s no doubt horses can bounce back in this race; but some of them this year don’t really have much to bounce back to; for example, horses like Noble Causeway and Wilko would have to not only bounce back, but improve markedly over their prior efforts. Greeley’s Galaxy, on the other hand, at least has his Illinois Derby effort to run back to, which was a big Beyer if not a win against great competition. A closer look at his Derby effort shows a tougher trip than his rider acknowledged afterwards, as he was widest of all on the first turn, and wide again turning for home. Steve Crist in his DRF chat last night compared him to Ten Most Wanted for his Illinois Derby win followed by a poor Derby, and picks him for second, behind High Fly and ahead of Closing Argument.

- Our still unnamed Tactical Colt has arrived at Belmont and he galloped this morning. Billy Turner is reported to have commented that "he sure is a nice mover" as well as "he has some fire in his engine.” We've been warned to watch ourselves around him if we visit him in the barn! I need both hands to type!

Let it Bleed.....Or Not

- Someone asked Steve Crist during a chat session on the Preakness this evening what he thought of Wilko’s chances, and he replied:

If he really had a serious bleeding problem in the Derby, then maybe. If not, he's a dead closer who should have run better than he did given the pace and the way the race fell apart.

It sounds as if Crist read the same conflicting quotes from Craig Dollase that I printed here. Isn't this a prime example of the kind of information that easily can and should be disclosed to the betting public? Did this horse bleed badly, or did he just have a “normal” amount of blood traces? What would Dollase be trying to do here by now playing down any bleeding, get a better price on his horse? I was looking today at the print edition of Bloodhorse, and they have pictures of the Derby field at various stages of the race, and I came to the same conclusion as Crist - Wilko should have run better from back where he was. Without an excuse, it was then just another of what has become his typical race - hanging at crunch time, and I would absolutely not bet on him. I feel as if I have insufficient information to make an informed decision about this horse.

Preakness Field

- Our Vicar filly breezed her 2f in :10.4 today, a solid if not spectacular time - the session best was :10.1. My guess is that the time itself won’t make or break her, and that she’ll be judged by her other attributes (or lack thereof). She’s scheduled to sell on Monday; she’s hip 97.

- Oh yeah, the Preakness post position draw.

1. Malibu Moonshine 20-1
2. High Fly 9-2
3. Noble Causeway 10-1
4. Greeley's Galaxy 15-1
5. Scrappy T 20-1
6. Hal's Image 50-1
7. Closing Argument 5-1
8. Galloping Grocer 30-1
9. Wilko 10-1
10. Sun King 15-1
11. High Limit 12-1
12. Afleet Alex 5-2
13. Giacomo 6-1
14. Going Wild 30-1

Closing Argument is the 5-1 3rd choice - the oddsmaker had indicated that Giacomo would be; perhaps he changed his mind because of the post? I think Giacomo will be third choice nonetheless. Link to the entries here.

Notes - May 18

- Evangeline Downs announced that it will close until June 30 in order to completely renovate the track surface at a cost of $1.5 million.

Evangeline Downs officials say that they have put a lot of effort into the racing business, and denied the perception that they have focused on the casino more.

"Purses were going downhill until the slots improved the quality," said Evangeline Downs Director of Racing Operations David Yount. "There's no question that the casino has helped, but there's also no question that we put horse racing first."

"Racing is the heart and soul of our body," said Swain. "This is a race track that just happens to have slots." [Daily Advertiser]

- Thanks to reader cookie jill for sending this link regarding the suspected use of Viagra to dope horses in Italy. I love the headline “Viagra-fueled Italian stallions seized by police.”

It was not clear how Viagra affected the horses' speed.

Perhaps it provides help to some colts involved in close photos? Could give a whole new meaning to expressions like “won by a long head.”

- Bill Finley writes on espn.com that you're better off watching the 1941 Preakness on ESPN Classic than the live race.

It's hard to imagine anything too scintillating happening in Saturday's 130th edition of the Preakness. Not with a Kentucky Derby winner in Giacomo who generates virtually no excitement or buzz. Not with his challengers largely composed of a group of overmatched new shooters and horses who are coming into the race after throwing in a dud in the Derby.

With all due respect to Finley, who I’ve enjoyed reading for many years, I couldn’t disagree with him more on this one. Giacomo’s upset win has generated front-page news and interest from fans and novices alike. Read what Matt Graves writes today: It's fair to say that I have received as many e-mails and phone calls after last week's column [in which he called Giacomo ‘unworthy’] as I ever have since the dawning of cyberspace. [Albany Times-Union] Finley can watch his tape of Britney and Kevin: Chaotic if he’s not interested. Personally, I find this edition of the Preakness to be fascinating – I think we’re all keen to see whether or not the Derby winner can indeed replicate his performance; and with a full field and the publicity over lottery-sized payoffs in the Derby, I suspect that we could see record handle and solid ratings for NBC.

- I’m really wondering what either side sees in the granting of a license to Magna to build and operate a new racetrack in Detroit. With all of Magna’s whining about the lack of slots in Maryland, why would they want to build a track in another state with no slots…and one that is further away from them than in a state that came close to passing legislation this year? And given Magna’s record of losing money, mismanaging tracks, and their apparent backing away from their stated commitment to racing in Maryland with or without slots, what were Michigan’s racing officials thinking about?

- Frank Stronach's daughter Belinda is a key figure in Canada’s Liberal Party’s desperate efforts to stay in power despite an ongong scandal. Read about that here.

- Here’s Craig Dollase using the bleeding excuse for Wilko again: "[Giacomo] got a good trip that day, and our horse was hampered by the bleeding.” [Courier-Journal] Which is it, Craig? He either had a legit excuse, or it was no big deal, as you told the Form. Why should we now buy all the other excuses we’ve heard on this colt’s behalf?

- More on Giacomo’s work yesterday:

Giacomo started slowly, tooling off fractions of 131/5, 261/5 and 39 and galloping out five-eighths of a mile in 1:054/5.

"He's feeling good," Shirreffs said. "(Monday) he was full of life. When I went to throw the rider up, he kind of 'cow-kicked' at him. So there were a lot of little indications that he'd be OK." [Courier-Journal]

Preakness Top Half Dozen

These are the top six that I have under consideration for the big race on Saturday:

1) Closing Argument - The best horse in the Derby is working out better than he did before that race and could score here at 8-1 or more.

2) Afleet Alex - Tim Ritchey is so happy with the way Alex has responded to his twice daily appearances on the track that he turns it up a notch. Tomorrow, Alex is scheduled to gallop two miles, go for a swim, jog another two miles, lift weights, work 7 furlongs, take a steps aerobics class, and drag a 50 lb weight and Ashton Kutchner up the side of a steep hill.

3) Giacomo - The Derby winner continues to get no respect, and some fed-up fans at Hollywood Park set fires to trash cans and overturn cars in response to a report in the Daily Racing Form that Andy Beyer flushed a copy of the Derby chart down the toilet.

4) High Fly - When Zito had five in the Derby you thought ‘how can he lose?’ Now you have to pick out which one might bounce back from being badly beaten in that race. High Fly has the most obvious excuse, having stalked the hot pace in his first race in 5 weeks after having compiled a nearly perfect record.

5) Wilko - After the Derby, the Toronto Star reported this:

Trainer Craig Dollase said the son of 1997 Queen's Plate champion Awesome Again bled badly from his lungs.

"He had a legitimate excuse and he still ran considerably well," Dollase said

But today’s Daily Racing Form reports this:

Dollase said he doesn't "want to make a big deal about" the trace amount of blood found in Wilko's throat passage after the Derby.

"We scoped him and saw just a small amount, but that's normal for the majority of racehorses," he said.

It’s good to see that trainers are learning to be honest with the public. Nonetheless, this horse, who has been held in much lower regard at this site, now moves into consideration based on his prospective price, his gameness, and because he raced on that tough Southern California circuit.

6. Scrappy T - I’ve been reading people who state with absolute assuredness that history tells us that the Preakness winner will not come from the group who didn’t run in the Derby. Not only does he have that going against him, but check out what trainer Robbie Bailes has to say:

"He likes to look around a bit. It's nice to give him a couple days to do that. Hopefully by Friday or Saturday, he'll be settled in." [Bloodhorse]

As you may know, no horse that likes to look around a bit has ever won the Preakness.

- Todd Pletcher said that the champion filly Ashado would likely race here on Friday in the Grade 3, $150,000 Pimlico Distaff rather than the Grade 2, $200,000 Shuvee Handicap on Saturday at Belmont Park. [DRF]

- UAE Derby winner Blues and Royals is at Belmont but don’t expect to see him until "later in the summer." [DRF]

Breakdowns

- According to the local Opelausas Daily World, there were a total of 11 equine injuries at Evangeline Downs in the week prior to its closing – 6 on Saturday and 5 on Thursday, when jockeys voted to halt the card following the 6th race. Three horses had to be euthanized. The president of the Louisiana Horsemen's Benevolent Protective Association walked the track and commented that "The surface is hard, unforgiving….It’s like the difference between running on concrete and running on grass. It needs more give….What I really think, it's a surface issue that needs to be slowed up." He denied that there were actually holes in the track, but one jockey disagreed.

"The new track has holes in it and needs more sand," [Frederick] Carmouche said.. "I was in the race, and I was riding the 12 horse dead last. I saw everything."

"Angelic Reason fell in the upper stretch and broke her leg. The hole is right at the top of the turn and Steve Bourque fell out."

Another rider said that “you can tell the track doesn't have enough sand and too much clay.”

Now, in an article from the AP (via Albany Law School), one owner says "I've heard today that it could take up to 30 days in order to fix the track.”

Racetrack General Manager Mike Howard refused Monday to confirm or deny rumors that racing operations could be shut down, even temporarily.

"There are so many rumors and everyone has their own opinions about what's going on that I'm not going to even comment on it," Howard said. [AP]

During the quarter horse meet that preceded this one, six horses suffered broken legs in the first ten days of racing.

- Pennsylvania’s slot law is supposed to provide direct benefits to homeowners by providing for a property tax credit for every homeowner to reflect gambling revenue directed to school districts. Act 72, the companion bill to the VLT law, requires individual school boards to opt-in to the program. One would think this would be a no-brainer, but think again.

One by one, school boards have begun rejecting the gambling money - a trickle of opposition that is expected to become a flood by the end of the month. Only a few of the 64 districts in Philadelphia's suburbs are likely to say yes before the May 30 deadline; statewide, fewer than half of the 500 eligible districts are expected to join.
……
Statewide, 22 have said yes and 26 no, according to the Pennsylvania School Boards Association.

Boards have objected on financial, academic, and even moral grounds. [Philly Inquirer]

The main objection seems to be the fact that any school board that opts-in makes itself subject to referendums on any proposed property tax increases that exceed the rate of inflation, raising the possibility of voter rejection and resulting austerity school budgets. There’s also the matter of all residents of any districts that opt-in being subject to a .1 percent increase in their earned-income tax.

One district, Morrisville, opted out because "about 45 percent of our residents are renters," school board President Sandy Gibson said. "They wouldn't see any property tax relief and they would get another tax increase" from the earned-income tax increase.”

In addition, high-income earners fear that the income tax increase would cancel out any savings on the property-tax for them. Then there’s the morality question:

Citing moral objections to gambling, [Gettysburg] board member Doyle Waybright said he won't accept "tainted" money.

"Supposedly the senior citizens with property have the most to gain by Act 72," he said. "I ask the senior citizens, 'Do you want your community to become a gambling one? Do you want this kind of culture passed along to your grandchildren?' " [York Daily Record]

The firm May 30 deadline is also a problem, as school boards wonder exactly why they have to decide now without knowing if slots revenues will be sufficient to grant the property tax credits that have been promised (around $333 per homeowner). In an editorial, the Philly Inquirer says: The deadline should be extended.

But it won't, because both the governor and lawmakers fear running for reelection next year without being able to tell voters they got them property tax relief.

Governor Rendell has raised the threat of the legislature passing a bill to make Act 72 mandatory on all school districts, and one House Democrat says he will introduce a bill to do just that.

"This was never intended to be about school boards," [Rep. Mike Veon] said. "The most important idea behind Act 72 was to deliver real property tax cuts for homeowners, funded by the new state revenue from gaming." [Pittsburgh Post-Gazette]

The Inquirer asks:

If lawmakers didn't intend to honor school boards' freedom of choice, why didn't they make Act 72 compulsory in the first place?

Embarrassed by the mediocre scorecard with 23 days to go - 15 opt-ins and nine opt-outs out of 500 eligible districts - politicians are just lashing out.

That's not using the bully pulpit. That's just plain bullying.

Preakness Notes - May 17

- This pre-Preakness week seems a bit like cold turkey after the minutae of Derby week. A lot of the little details are gone – no The Works on TVG, and we don’t have Steve Haskin or Mike Welsch on hand to provide commentary on every little aspect of each horse’s movements for the day. Of course, this is due in large part to the fact that only two of the entrants are actually at Pimlico. Perhaps that’s a good thing; based on the Derby clocker reports I probably would have had Bandini on top of every ticket I had. Though Bellamy Road looked good too. And Wilko. And High Fly… Since Giacomo didn’t arrive until late, there weren’t really any assessments of him. I recall watching Closing Argument’s last workout, and though I had already long ago completely dismissed him, the way he seemed distracted and was looking around certainly did nothing to change my mind. After his work the other day, trainer McLaughlin specifically noted that he “kept a straighter path through the stretch than he had in his last work before the Kentucky Derby.” [DRF]

Bloodhorse.com is still posting daily Preakness notes, which seems to be the most detailed information available on the contenders. Giacomo worked a leisurely half in :51.80 (faster than they came home in the Derby!). You may recall that prior to the Derby, he had a blazing work of 6f in 1:11 and change. "I trained him very hard for the Derby, so I didn't want to do too much with him," Shirreffs said. [Bloodhorse] I’m not that familiar with Shirrefs, but I really like the way he’s conducted himself this week` - no I-told-ya-so’s, no indignation for the way his horse was dismissed before the Derby, and not even for the way he’s still being dismissed now. "I understand what the press is saying and some people are saying, I guess…..But, that being said, they were all in the gate, and Giacomo won the race." Can’t argue with that. He seems to be just going along for the ride.

High Fly worked a half in :50.20 ("That's all he needed after running a mile and a quarter two weeks ago”), and he was officially declared in. Wilko worked in :50.60 ("We were very pleased with the way he did it," Dollase said. "It looked like he picked it up the last part, and he finished well. He came out of it in great shape, too, and we're ready to go.")

- Historically, chances are that we won’t see an upset the same magnitude as the Derby.

In the history of the race, only three horses have won when facing odds of 20-1 or higher.

The biggest of those upsets was Master Derby in 1975 at 23-1. He was entered as a supplemental nomination, beat Derby winner Foolish Pleasure by a length, and then withstood an objection for interference. Master Derby had finished fourth in Louisville, Ky.

In the past 20 years, the Preakness favorite has finished first or second 15 times, and only three favorites finished out of the money. [Baltimore Sun]

- Mike Smith’s only other Triple Crown win was with Prairie Bayou in the 1993 Preakness. He subsequently broke down in the Belmont.

- Mike Bruckner of msnbc.com says of Giacomo that you’d think the gray son of Holy Bull ran to victory like a fat man with his pants around his ankles. But he delves a bit deeper into his performance:

According to the Daily Racing Form chart, he gained nearly 10 lengths on the leaders in the middle stages of the race, closing into what was still a very testing pace. Using the rough yardstick that every length is equal to about one-fifth of a second, that means Giacomo ran the middle quarter mile of the Derby in just a shade over 22 seconds, a scintillating time for any quarter mile in a route race.

In addition to the early burst, Giacomo had a wide trip that undoubtedly cost him a couple lengths and was subjected to the sort of bumping that virtually every competitor encounters in the moving melee that is the Kentucky Derby. [msnbc.com]

Pinhooking Update

- Exciting week for my pinhooking partnership. The Tactical Cat colt that did not meet our reserve at the 2 yo in training sale at Ocala last month is en route to Billy Turner’s barn at Belmont to begin training. The Castle Village end of the partnership has also taken full ownership of the colt. So we have a racehorse! (hopefully!) The master plan was to buy one or two with the vast pinhooking profits that have not yet materialized, but nonetheless, I’m in on a horse everyone seems to like that could conceivably debut in Saratoga if all goes well. Next is the democratically chaotic process of all the partners suggesting names for the colt, and trying to come up with something that everyone agrees on. More likely, Steve Zorn, the managing partner, will have to make the call himself. I’m not sure if partnership rules allow us to filibuster a name that we don’t like.

The colt is by Tactical Cat, out of Highland Tide (Highland Blade), so if you have any brilliant suggestions, feel free to pass them along. If it’s something that actually gets accepted, I guess I’ll have to come up with some kind of prize. I have some old NYRA T-shirt giveaways lying around somewhere.

The two remaining horses in the partnership are fillies by Vicar and Real Quiet. They were both entered in next week’s Fasig-Tipton Timonium sale, but a routine pre-sale X-ray on the Real Quiet filly last week revealed a chip in her knee, so she’s out. She’s being shipped to Pennsylvania to have it removed, and then will go into training for us as well, though the objective is still to try and sell her at some point, perhaps after a dazzling maiden victory.

So, a lot is riding on the Vicar filly. After a quick start with the Deputy Minister colt that was sold privately, we’ve been unable to sell any of the other three thus far. But this filly was small and was thus targeted for this sale from the start by consignor Niall Brennan, who has said she could be a standout there. Here’s her catalog page (pdf). She’s out of an unraced Belong to Me (Danzig) mare, who has produced one modest winner from 3 other racing age foals. Her second dam was unplaced in 2 starts, but she has foaled six winners, including millionaire and multiple graded winner Fit For a Queen, who in turn, is the dam of Royal Assault, 3rd in last year’s Belmont for Zito, as well as the dam of stakes winners Ender’s Sister and Ender’s Shadow; the latter nearly won the G2 Mervyn LeRoy on Saturday.

Interestingly, the filly’s 5th dam is Lady Angela, the dam of Nearctic, the sire of Northern Dancer; and she traces back tail-male to Nearctic himself through her grandsire Wild Again (Icecapade / Nearctic). She’s inbred 4x4 to Northern Dancer, but is totally free of Raise a Native, so I imagine she presents some interesting possibilities as a broodmare. But first things first. She’s breezing in the under-tack show tomorrow, and as Steve said, we need her to run “a hole in the wind.” Otherwise, a see a cash call in my not-too-distant future.

- The Head Chef never heard that expression – running a “hole in the wind.” I assured her that it’s not something limited to horse racing. One expression that she has heard however, and has now officially denounced, is “breaking its maiden.” She deems it “sexist,” “inappropriate,” and “crude,” and says we might as well say as that a horse has “popped its cherry.” I have to honestly say that I never once in my life paused to think about where the expression may have come from and what its literal meaning might be. But in keeping with what must be to some the annoying political correctness of this site (and to insure that I continue to eat well), I will no longer use that expression here. I like “popping its cherry” better anyway.

Full Field for Preakness

- Marty McGee in the Form reports that Zito is set to go with all three of eligible trio assuming that all goes well with High Fly’s work tomorrow, making for a full 14 horse field. That means that Golden Man can't play. The Pimlico oddsmaker says High Fly will be the second choice.

Pimlico linemaker Frank Carulli said he likely will make Afleet Alex the 5-2 favorite for the Preakness, followed by High Fly at about 9-2 and Giacomo at 6-1. Carulli said those odds might be altered somewhat, depending on the post draw. According to Carulli, Preakness starters breaking from post 8 or farther out are 4 for 101 in the past 15 runnings. [Daily Racing Form]

I gotta say, I’m psyched for this Preakness; from a betting standpoint maybe even more so than the Derby. I was trying to make money with the favorite on top in that race, this time I’m committed to beating the favorite, which I'm more comfortable with. I think Afleet Alex probably will run his race, but I think it's definitely worth a shot to bet he falls a bit short, as he has before. This Preakness will feature some live horses at high odds if Carulli is right. Why, this could mean getting something like 8-1 on the horse I thought was clearly the best in the Derby. More on his workout Monday:

McLaughlin did a double-take after Closing Argument worked four furlongs in 49.03 seconds Monday morning. Closing Argument is not deemed a particularly fast work horse, especially by himself, as was the case Monday.

"That was a good work, whatever the time,'' said McLaughlin, who noted that Closing Argument kept a straighter path through the stretch than he had in his last work before the Kentucky Derby. [DRF]

Though I think that High Fly is a horse that could bounce back in the Preakness, I wouldn’t use him as second choice. I’d sooner take a shot with someone like Noble Causeway; hell, I’d even use Wilko at double digit odds. As for Giacomo, McGee writes that he appears to be thriving.

- Did you know that going into tonight’s game in Seattle, the Yanks haven’t lost since Derby day?

- Closing Argument’s sire Successful Appeal is out of action for the rest of the breeding season after covering 83 mares. The 9-year-old Valid Appeal horse is recovering from an April 26 colic surgery to correct a rare condition in which part of his small intestine was trapped in an abdominal ligament. [Daily Racing Form] GROSS!! Oh man, that must hurt. Let’s move on.

- When Pimlico says that the Preakness is the only day they make money, they mean it.

``Literally, it's the one day of the year that we make money,'' said Jim Gagliano, executive vice president of Maryland operations for Pimlico's owner, Magna Entertainment Corp. ``The tickets sales, concessions and percentage that we get on wagering makes up for the other 364 days of the year in which we do not show a profit.'' [Bloodhorse]

Preakness Notes - May 16

- Closing Argument had a sharp work of 4f in :49 this morning.

"He went faster than I thought he would go," [trainer Kiaran] McLaughlin said. "Usually he won't work fast on his own, and I thought he'd go in :51 or :52 this morning. But he worked great and came out of it great. We're ready to go."
……….
"He's been just amazing…..He ran a huge race in the Derby, and since then he hasn't missed an oat. He's just a trier, and he always gives 100 percent.” [Bloodhorse]

Nick Zito was pleased with the works by Noble Causeway (5f in 1:02.20) and Sun King (1:01.20) and at least those two will go. Sun King has little more credibility than virtually anything that comes out of the White House these days. Going Wild, who has even less credibility, worked 5f as well (does it really matter what the time was?) Who knows why Lukas is persisting with this one; we can only hope he survives this ordeal and remains sound.

- Scrappy T is in town, joining Afleet Alex is the only contenders already at Pimlico. Trainer Robert Bailes: “We’ll give him a real easy three furlongs on Wednesday to stretch his legs and let him get a more serious trip over the track." [Thoroughbred Times]

- Tim Ritchey will not give Afleet Alex a formal workout before the Preakness, though he’s still jogging and/or galloping extensively – he did a total of five miles this morning.

"Riders will be much more aware of how fast they’re going, and we won’t see 1:09," Ritchey said. "There will be a full field, though, so we’ll still have to worry about traffic problems, but I expect a more formful race, and I’d like a little more luck than we had in the Derby.

"He has a lot of miles underneath him already…..He’s dead fit and I want the edge in him. He’ll need to be closer to the pace, and I thought that if I breezed him that would take some of the edge off." [Thoroughbred Times]

- A couple of exciting stakes at Hollywood yesterday. In the G3 Jim Murray Memorial, longshot Runaway Dancer did a crack Megahertz imitation, sprinting past the field from dead last at the top of the lane. His sire, 1982 Travers winner Runaway Groom is still standing at Vinery Kentucky for $12,500; he has a solid crop of 54 2 yo’s in this, his 20th crop year. In the G2 Mervyn LeRoy, it was Ace Blue (Coax Me Clyde) edging out Ender’s Shadow and holding off favored Borrego for the win.

Fair Play or Fast Pace?

- Joe Drape’s article in the NY Times today is entitled After Derby Shocker, All Eyes Turn to Preakness, but it’s really about continuing whispers around the industry regarding the effect of increased vigilance on medication on race results, specifically those from the Derby and at Belmont, where all entrants are now sent to a detention barn for the six hours prior to their race. Indeed, he writes that the Derby results are being looked upon by many leaders in the industry as evidence that vigilant medication policies and tighter security are leveling the playing field for all owners and trainers. [NY Times]

Over Belmont's opening week, for example, the betting favorites won 18 percent of the time, below the industry average, which is considered 33 percent. Over the same period in 2004, the favorites won 28 percent of the time. But during the recently concluded Aqueduct meet, which ran from Jan. 1 to May 1, the post-time favorites won 36 percent of the time.

"We know that whenever you change racetracks and begin a new meet, there is going to be some changes in the numbers, but we believe strongly in what we're doing with the prerace monitoring," Hayward said. "It is gratifying to see a broad range of trainers winning, a number of them that were not high-percentage trainers. It seems like we're heading in the right direction, but I don't think we should be pounding our chest on one week's data. We'll see what the numbers show us."

Drape points out that the results of Belmont’s second week have brought the favorites up to a more normal 30% wins. I find the fact that industry professionals are seriously discussing the possibility that medication, or in this case the lack thereof, effected the result of the biggest race of all to be disturbing, to say the least. I’m more inclined (wishfully?) to accept Todd Pletcher’s explanation that “it had nothing to do with the outcome of the race; it was the fast pace that cooked some of the favorites and set it up for Giacomo."

- Wayne Lukas and Nick Zito have yet to make a final decision on which horses they’ll run in the Preakness. But with Lukas’ A.P. Arrow having broken his maiden Saturday at Churchill, perhaps we’ll be spared Going Wild this time. Zito is supposed to be waiting to see how they work out. (Just got a note that Noble Causeway worked 5f in 1:02.60, pretty slow compared to his pre-Derby works.) If Lukas does not run Going Wild it will be one less horse to set a fast pace. One horse who will be on the lead, at least according to his trainer Bobby Frankel, is High Limit. "He's going to make the lead….I'm going to put blinkers on him. He seems like he needs something to make him focus.” [NY Post]

- Check out the prospective field for Friday’s Pimlico Special, wow!

Badge of Silver (Jerry Bailey), Funny Cide (Jose Santos), Second of June (Cornelio Velasquez), Pollard's Vision (John Velazquez), Eddington (Eibar Coa), Presidentialaffair (Stewart Elliott), Eurosilver (Javier Castellano), Grand Reward (Gary Stevens), Offlee Wild (Edgar Prado). [Baltimore Sun]

- Sherry Ross of the NY Daily News on some Derby winners who were overlooked a bit in the Preakness betting:

It's not unusual for Derby winners to not go off as the betting choice in the second leg of the Triple Crown. In fact, in four of the last eight runnings of the Preakness, the Derby winner was not favored. It is worth noting that three of those ignored Derby winners did win the second jewel and went on to the Belmont for a chance at the Triple Crown: Silver Charm was the third choice in the 1997 Preakness after Captain Bodgit and Free House. Real Quiet (1998) was the second choice behind Victory Gallop. Charismatic (trained by none other than Lukas) garnered no respect in the 1999 Preakness, going off as the fifth choice in the wagering at 8-1.

Giacomo is not likely to go off at Dark Star double-digit odds. The beaten Derby favorite, Bellamy Road, is injured and will miss the race. Another reason is that souvenir hunters and eBayers will buy $2 win tickets on Giacomo, just in case. It would be no surprise, though, if he is second or even third choice. [NY Daily News]

I think it’s pretty clear that Afleet Alex will be the favorite; besides that, who knows? If High Fly is entered, I think he has a chance to be second choice. We could be looking at more than fair prices for not only Giacomo, but Closing Argument, whose effort in the Derby becomes more and more impressive in retrospect, as well. Bill Handleman of the Asbury Park Press noticed the latter’s Derby effort too:

..he ran his first quarter in 22 4/5ths seconds. He bobbled slightly at the break, got into contention early from post position 18, then stayed dangerously close. He was only two lengths behind Bellamy Road after a half-mile — five and a half lengths off the lead — and was even closer after three-quarters, which was run in a blistering 1:09 2/5ths. He ran his six furlongs in just over 1:10.

In other words, if you hear somebody building a case for Closing Argument in the days ahead, don't dismiss it out of hand.

- From Newsday, some early opinions from turf writers around the country on the Preakness outcome. (The article is entitled "No Giacomo fans.")

Sunday Night Notes - May 15

- Jeremy Rose has been generally praised for his ride on Afleet Alex in the Derby, but Steve Klein of the Form feels that he moved too soon:

The difference between those two performances is directly related to the fractions of those races. When Afleet Alex ran six furlongs in a leisurely 1:12.78 in the Arkansas Derby he was full of run late, and ran an optimal race while covering the last three furlongs in 36.02 seconds, and average of approximately 12.01 seconds per furlong. But when Afleet Alex was just five lengths behind the 1:09.59 pace in the Kentucky Derby, the extra energy he used to run more than two seconds faster to that point was not available to him late, and prevented him from capitalizing on the slow 53.16 final half-mile, an average of 13.29 per furlong. If Afleet Alex is ridden more patiently in the Preakness, he will be formidable. [Daily Racing Form]

Alex was actually a rallying 9th at the 3/4s, but only 5 lengths back. So he was rather close as Klein says. Closing Argument was even closer, however, and was wider on the turn than the ground saving Alex. His performance in the Derby flies in the face of the accepted logic for the race - that the pace was suicidal and anyone close to it was dead. If you use that to explain Afleet Alex, Bellamy Road, or High Fly falling short, how do you explain how Closing Argument almost won the race?

- I got home from a beautiful day with the Head Chef at the NY Botanical Garden in the Bronx, and of course immediately picked up the Form and switched on TVG. I'd done the good boyfriend thing for the day, and it was after 4 and time to play. The 8th at Belmont was a NY-bred stakes on the turf, the Kingston. It was another wide open stakes, but this time no false favorite. I made a small bet keying the 2 horse, No Parole, who was 11-1. Meanwhile, I’d noticed in the background that Matt Carrothers was apparently having a good day on TVG. He’d picked the winner of the 7th, Shaniko, Pletcher’s second winner of the day, so much for the detention barn theory. Then, just before the Belmont race, he nailed a 17-1 shot in the 7th Churchill.

Yet, I wasn’t thrilled when he mentioned that the 2 was his pick. For one thing, what were the chances of him hitting 17-1 and 11-1 shots within a couple minutes of each other? Also, I don't like when I hear someone not an acquaintance saying that he/she likes my horse. My first racing mentor, Jake, would actually get off line and not bet if he heard the person in front of him betting the horse he was going to. It wouldn’t matter how much he liked the race, what the price was, or how much effort he put into coming up with it, he would just come walking back shrugging his shoulders. “The guy in front of me bet him.” His reasoning was that such a small percentage of bettors win, what are the chances of two of them standing front-to-back in that line? Even the very few times I remember the horse winning, he would be undaunted. He stuck to his handicapping principles, however quirky they might be. So I started to do it too, though I would qualify it somewhat by looking at the person and making an admittedly condescending judgment as to whether or not he looked like a loser. I don’t ever remember going off a winner, not once. Now, I always bet on the machines so I never hear what anyone is betting. And I restrain myself from looking. No Parole finished 6th. You see?

- Feel free to email me with links, comments, questions.

Preakness Past and Present

- Greeley’s Galaxy worked 5f in a sharp 1:00 1/5 in the slop at Churchill on Saturday. His exercise rider said that “He finished for me better than usual.” [Bloodhorse] Recall that he did not finish up strongly when he worked prior to the Derby. So maybe he’s improving - or maybe he liked the slop. Or both. He has in his dam’s pedigree Better Bee, the sire of Bee Bee Bee, who won the Preakness in the slop in 1972 over Key to the Mint. That was a little bit before I started following the sport, and I don’t remember the race as much as the call of the race. In subsequent years I remember going over to a friend’s, and we’d get really wasted and listen to his collection of great race calls he had on cassettes. He had the album Secretariat - Horse of the Century, which had the calls of nearly all his races including some classic calls from Dave Johnson in his prime. I know I have it somewhere here; I’ll have to find it and post about it some other time.

But I also remember that he had a tape of Ray Haight’s call of Bee Bee Bee winning the Preakness. I believe it may have been a call for CBS Radio rather than the ontrack one. His gravelly voice made his calls particularly dramatic, and it raised to a climactic crescendo as Bee Bee Bee raliied to the win. My friend would get all excited each time he played it and start whipping and driving himself along with the winner. Listening to those calls is one of the things that helped to convert me over from the standardbred set.

Back to the current Preakness, High Limit worked 5 in 1:00 1/5 on Sunday and will add blinkers. "He seems like he needs something to make him focus," Frankel said. [Bloodhorse] Closing Argument galloped, and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said “we’re all set.”

If the track is fast Monday, Closing Argument will have a light workout. Otherwise, the colt will gallop up to the 1 3-16th-mile Preakness, he said.

Giacomo will ship to Pimlico on Wednesday.