Notes - June 13

- Kiaran McLaughlin was back at Belmont on Sunday, saddling Roshani (Fantastic Light) to a 4th place finish at .55-to-1 in the second race. But forget about that, just you wait until she gets on the turf. That was a funny race; Michael Matz had first timer Cindy’s Mom (AP Indy) at 7-2 in the morning line, and Richard Dutrow had Baby Bird (Cape Town), listed at 9-2. They both looked absolutely fabulous in the paddock and on the track, particularly Cindy's Mom, but were totally dead on the board, at 10-1 and 13-1 respectively! Yet they ran far closer to their morning line. Roshani got cooked on the front end early, and Baby Bird swept by to win with a nice four wide move.

Matz’s horse closed extremely well after having to swerve out to go around a tiring front-runner. She’s out of a Deputy Minister mare who is a half sister to Sea of Secrets, Fight for Love, and Love That Jazz, the dam of Society Selection. Baby Bird is out of a mare by Kentucky Derby winner Strike the Gold who is a half to Grade 1 winner Stop Traffic.

- Did you see Dubai Escapade toy with Smokey Glacken in the Vagrancy? Edgar Prado allowed that rival to draw alongside around the turn, before kicking away at will and drawing off to win by six. Trainer Eoin Harty told Brisnet: “We're going to take a look at a race at Calder for her (July 15 Princess Rooney H. [G1]) or the (August 27) Ballerina ([G1] at Saratoga)."

- After winning the Belmont with Jazil despite working him only twice after the Derby five weeks prior, McLaughlin will apparently aim the colt straight for the Travers as his next start. Bernardini is said to be headed for the Jim Dandy, and perhaps the Monmouth (don’t get excited Patrick; it was termed a remote possibility). Bluegrass Cat and Sunriver are expected for the Midsummer Derby, and if we’re all lucky and things go well in the Dwyer, perhaps Discreet Cat will return to the scene of his celebrated debut last year. (He worked five furlongs in 1:01.84 [7/16] on Monday morning.) Henny Hughes is getting ready to return at Momouth on July 1. But one thing I’ve noticed about all the speculation for the three-year old division in the second half of 2006 is that the name Stevie Wonderboy is barely heard.

- Next for Lava Man is the G1 Hollywood Gold Cup.

"Obviously, we've got a top-quality turf horse, but I still think his best races and his style is more geared to speed and stamina that kicks butt on dirt," said trainer Doug O'Neill. "He's been bouncing out of these races very well, so we're hoping he continues to do that." [AP]

One horse who wants no part of Lava Man is Buzzards Bay; of the prospect of facing him, trainer Ron Ellis said “I don't know if I want to do that yet.” [DRF] So instead of running in this weekend’s G2 Californian to prep for the Gold Cup, Buzzards Bay will instead target the Grade 1 Stephen Foster at Churchill on Saturday. "I'd rather run in just one race, and take a shot at a Grade 1 where it looks like we have a good chance." That could be bulletin board material for the other expected entrants, which include Brass Hat, the winter sensation who ran second in the Dubai World Cup (before being DQ’d to third for an illegal medication), Wanderin Boy, West Virginia, Master Command, and Wild Desert. Now you know why Ellis thinks he has a better shot at a Grade 1 in the Foster.

Good News and Second Thoughts

- Christina from Team Belmont correctly points out that I failed to mention the incident at the starting gate that resulted in two scratches and a couple of bruised but otherwise not significantly injured fillies. I guess I was concentrating on the good news, but that actually was good news, because nobody got hurt. There are always going to be accidents on the racetrack, just as there are on the Long Island Expressway, so it’s prodigious news whenever injury is avoided. Of course, that incident, plus Nar’s visually spectacular crash through the hedge prompted one headline writer to declare Horse racing's danger is revealed once again. [Stamford Advocate]

And I see that Christina had Jazil, and so apparently did Patrick on top in the exacta after dismissing him entirely in his last post before the race. Also, there was a reader who picked Jazil in the comments section; but he missed the Pick Four by the neck by which Hello Liberty lost to Bushfire, so let’s hope he made out OK on the 11th race.

As far as my day, I was pretty damn demoralized going into the Belmont. I picked out the two Godolphin horses to stand against in the early races. I knew I was in big trouble after Safsoof won, because betting against him was easily the better case. On closer inspection, there wasn’t much quality in there against Afrashad, and I guess now 3-2 is looking pretty damn good.

I talked wrote myself off of Too Much Bling and Songster and took a shot with Fabulous Strike in the Woody Stephens. Then I was alive in the Pick Three for one race, as Bushfire was part of my spread. The Pick 3’s of the scratched Miraculous Miss and Wonder Lady L were the only things I cashed on all day. But in the Manhattan, I knew I was out with English Channel when I saw Cacique repelling his advances on the lead. I had nothing going on going into the big race.

Then, Sunriver was dead on the board at 7-1, eventually edging down to 6-1, and even though I should know better than to pay attention to that considering all the wacky betting we’ve been seeing in the Triple Crown races, it couldn’t help but dampen my enthusiasm a bit. I ended up essentially with a triple box of the first three finishers – except that I didn’t use Jazil on top. I kinda wanted to bet him – after all, I picked up on him and his stellar pedigree after his maiden win. But I looked and saw a horse with only a maiden win to his credit, a Kentucky Derby effort that didn’t excite me, and a plodding style that we’ve been almost indoctrinated into believing can’t win the Belmont. I swear, 20 years ago, this horse would have been the 3-1 favorite in this race.

Of course, Jazil didn’t use that style, and Fernando Jara may have watched tapes of Jeremy Rose’s ride last year. Perhaps his losing an iron after the start was a blessing as well. If Jara had any inclination to try to get his horse closer, as we had read he was instructed to do, having to pause to regain his iron left him no choice but to ease over to the rail and save ground while just loping along. In the meantime, John Velazquez was caught contesting the leaders five wide on Bluegrass Cat on the first turn. You gotta think that the result of this race could have been different had Pletcher’s horse taken a shorter route around that turn; that was a huge difference in both ground covered and energy expended just there. Still, Bluegrass Cat was tough and game right to the finish despite covering what seems like more ground than the mere length and a quarter he lost by.

But hey, that’s just sour grapes. Props to the winner and to everyone who had him. There was a lot to be said for betting a horse that you just knew would still be running at the end, and other than Steppenwolfer, who just doesn’t have a winning move in his repertoire (at least against these horses), Jazil was the only one that qualified before the race.

Jazil and Racing the Big Winners

- A roar went up from the crowd when the horses emerged from the gate for the Belmont Stakes. Perhaps it was because I found the question of what the attendance and the atmosphere would be like to be a more compelling storyline than the race itself, but the cheers and applause seemed less for the Belmont itself than an expression of appreciation, and even relief, that the day had turned out so well to that point. The attendance of 61,168 had to be beyond even the most hopeful forecasts by NYRA, and Bill Nader said "I'm thrilled." The crowd built up as the day went on after a scary start – there were wide swatches of untouched real estate in the backyard when we arrived just after the second – and as the series of stakes races leading up to the big race went on, it seemed clear that the attendance would be comparable to that of last year. Perhaps the fans were applauding themselves for helping to assure that the day would be a special one despite all the bad karma of the last three weeks.

Or maybe they were showing their adulation for the sport, which, with a series of dramatic finishes, shone through as brilliantly as the fall-like sunshine, and proved to be as resilient as the Derby champ whose injury had cast such a pall on the game.

There was Afrashad (Smoke Glacken), the second of two winning Godolphin runners (both of which I counseled you to bet against), who, in his first start in two years, blazed to a half of 44.12 seconds, and drew away from his pursuers in a spectacular 1:08.38, just a tick or two slower than the Grade 2 stakes sprint that would ensue.

Then there was the True North, in which Anew (Awesome Again) was equally scintillating in burying the 4-5 favorite Tiger in 1:08.10. This five-year old is a sudden sprint star for Steve Asmussen, who claimed him for $35,000 last fall, and ran him for as little as $25,000 (a NW of 2 lifetime) just three races back in February! He speed-popped the field, toyed with Spanish Chestnut around the turn, and left that one in the dust, visually accelerating away to a five length win with a final quarter of 23.64.

In the Just A Game, Julien Laparoux sat chilly with Gorella, letting Pommes Frites skip out to an 8 length lead as if to just make it exciting. Tom Durkin seemed alarmed as they turned for home, noting that the 3-5 favorite had “a lot to do, and only two furlongs to do it.” With many in the crowd no doubt depending on Gorella as a single in whatever multi-race bet they had going, a hopeful rumble went up when Gorella started her move once straightening out. The roar built steadily as she slowly cut into the lead and erupted as she finally got to the leader in what nonetheless still looked like a measured neck. Trainer Patrick Biancone said, "The jock has very cool nerves, and I could see that when he didn't use the whip, and just hand rode, that he knew he was going to get there." [Daily Racing Form]

Bob Baffert, who did not have a great day, blamed the post position for the defeat of 6-5 favorite Too Much Bling in the G2 Woody Stephens.

"The post [number one] killed us," ....With his style, he doesn't like to be in there. …Songster is a good horse, but he was in a perfect spot there. Put him in [post one] and us on the outside, and I think it's different." [Thoroughbred Times]

The fact is that he couldn’t keep up with Fabulous Strike early. But it didn't help that he was pinned on the inside by Prado on the winner Songster (Songandaprayer) for Darley and Tom Albertrani.

Two more races to go until the Belmont, and two more great stretch runs. Bushfire (Louis Quatorze) atoned for her third in the Kentucky Oaks with her second Grade 1 win in three tries when she battled back after being passed at the top of the lane by Hello Liberty. Winning trainer Eddie Kenneally knew that his filly had done somethig special. "Normally, in horse racing, when you get headed at the eighth-pole, you're going to get beat. She is just so game." [Bloodhorse] Both fillies were tired – the final quarter was run in 26.46 seconds – but neither gave in as they held the rest of the field, including the disappointing favorite Adieu, whose trainer Todd Pletcher didn’t have a great day either, easily at bay.

Pletcher also had English Channel in the Manhattan, and so did I. As the race unfolded with he and Cacique (Danehill) “meandering” through the first half in 51.30 and six furlongs in 1:16.66, I never got the feeling that English Channel would prevail. I was already unsettled by the fact that Frankel’s horse was bet down to slight favoritism over English Channel in the last couple of flashes. (Does anyone else pay attention to that stuff?)

Nonetheless, you knew the two were going to sprint home together; what I didn’t figure was that Relaxed Gesture and Grey Swallow would be able to rally from last and second-to-last respectively to miss by a head and a neck in a finish reminiscent of the Dixie Handicap on Preakness day. This was despite the leading duo coming home in 47.44, final quarter 23.65. Perhaps Relaxed Gesture would have won if Desormeaux hadn’t dropped the whip. "It sure looked like I had it.....I just saw the replay, and obviously, I missed the head bob. I was in front before the wire and after it. He handled the yielding turf okay. We just got beat." [Bloodhorse]

So when they were off for the Belmont, I joined in the cheers. For me, it wasn’t really for a Belmont field that was so flawed that a horse who ran 17th in his last race went off as the favorite; but partly to tell the naysayers “hey, look at what a great day we all had” and partly a nod to everybody – human and horse – who had made the day a success. Any fears that the cloud of the Preakness would hang over Belmont day had proven to be unfounded. Whatever will be remembered about the NYRA era should it end next year, the association must be credited (along with the likes of Silver Charm, Real Quite, War Emblem, etc.,) for establishing the race as a major event, regardless of the quality of the race itself. The crowd was a young one, and it shows how low of a priority live attendance must be that there’s no longer any effort to attract repeat visitors through incentives such as admission and parking coupons.

As for the Belmont, I’ll have more to say throughout the week, but Fernando Jara took Jazil (Seeking the Gold) on a route similar to that of Jeremy Rose and Afleet Alex last year, making his big move around the turn and gaining the lead as he came into the stretch. While Afleet Alex came home in 24.50, Jazil took 25.17. That’s not half bad either, and his final time of 2:27 4/5 was faster than Alex’s 2:28 3/5, and, indeed, was quicker, albeit on a track that seemed to play fast all day, than nine out of the last eleven runnings. Bluegrass Cat fought on very gamely, and was severely compromised by being carried wide around the first turn. Sunriver, dead on the board at 6-1, turned in a more than respectable performance rallying for third. Steppenwolfer did his usual thing; you may read excuses again, but I don’t know that I’d bet on him in a quality allowance race at Saratoga.

As usual, the also-rans checked out at the quarter pole, and, with the possible exception of the winner, all of these horses will be happy to learn that they won’t have to run that far again. The top three proved, I think, to be quality thoroughbreds, though certainly not superstars. I don’t think the race did anything to discredit the quality of this crop. Lacking Bernardini, and without highly regarded runners such as Discreet Cat, Corinthian, and Stevie Wonderboy who are currently on the sidelines, this was no better than a second string field anyway, and doesn't necessarily reflect the overall quality of this group of three-year olds. We'll learn more about that down the road (we hope). But although Jazil’s win won’t create the same hype as those of Barbaro or Bernardini, it seems like he acquitted himself well, and he and the two Pletcher horses should be taken seriously wherever they run next (especially perhaps, Bluegrass Cat and Sunriver at distances shorter than a mile and a half.)

Have a Great Belmont Day!!!

- A sharp workout for Highland Cat this morning; a half in 48.23, second best out of 11 at the distance today. He’s aiming for a mile and a quarter maiden special at Belmont on June 24.

- Keyed Entry is scratched from the Woody Stephens.

- Well, it looks like a gorgeous day here in New York. The sun is shining, and, as promised, there’s a nice cool, dry breeze. The main track is fast, and the turf has been labeled ‘yielding,’ but perhaps the wind will dry it out a bit more by the time we get to the two grass stakes. Still, Wend has been scratched from the Just a Game, perhaps because of the soft going. Gorella looks like a bit of a cinch there..

And if you’re not sick of all this by the time the Belmont has been run, check out the Grade 1 Charles Whittingham on the grass at Hollywood. Lava Man could be one of the more intriguing stories to be written this year; the former claimer has already proven his worth on dirt, and tries to do so on the grass today. He won a Cal-bred stakes on the green in his last effort, but meets some of the big boys today, including Frankel’s King’s Drama, coming off a win in the G2 San Luis Rey. TH Approval ran second that day, but subsequently took the G2 San Juan Capistrano. And Neil Drysdale has Red Fort making his first start of the year; his prior had been a head loss in this race last year to Sweet Return, who also runs here, but who has been off form.

Good luck everybody, and have a fantastic day!!!

An Early Pick Three

- It was just a few years ago that I recall a day before the Belmont spent at the track. It was a 3 PM twilight card, and War Emblem was to go for the Triple Crown the next day. So there was a buzz at the track. NYRA hired what they called ‘street performers’ for the occasion, and there were jugglers, magicians, and mimes sprinkled throughout the backyard. It doesn’t take that much to make a day seem a little special, and distinguish it from all the other days, especially in these days of sparse attendance.

It wasn’t quite just another day today. There are tents and food stands set up in the backyard and extra beer stands inside. The well-dressed crowd in the paddock anyway, was as large as you would generally see on a weekend day with a big stakes. Matt Carrothers and Todd Scrhrmmfff took up residence in their tent. A blimp hovered over head, flashing ads to the crowd of 4,612. Perhaps someone thought that it would be like Oaks day and that there would actually be a crowd there. Watching a race from temporary stands on the grandstand apron, I actually ducked when, out of the corner of my eye, I saw a prehistoric creature flying towards me as the horses came down the stretch. It turned out to be a moving camera stand, the operator apparently practicing his timing.

I didn’t hear anybody actually talk about the Belmont. Though NYRA was obviously gearing up for a big day, the expectations seem to have dropped throughout the week. Charles Hayward, contradicting his always optimistic VP Bill Nader, said he’d be happy with a crowd of 50,000, and that seems to have become the unofficial over/under.

Anyway, I got there just for the last few races, and hit the 7th race triple with my only bet of the day. It was my favorite kind of race to handicap and bet – the one in which I can identify the favorite as a bet-against almost immediately upon viewing the Form. Monsoon Rain, the 8-5 morning line favorite, was bet down steadily to even money by post time. This Darley colt ran an OK 3rd last month here in his first race in this country, first on the dirt, and his return after and absence of a year and a half, earning a field high Beyer of 96. It wasn’t a bad race, but now, he was stretching out from six furlongs to a mile and a sixteenth against a pretty decent field, and he seemed like a big underlay

And I finally listened to myself – I’ve been writing that Zito seems poised to break out, and I went with his Regent Spirit (Concerto), even though he was going beyond seven furlongs for the first time. 5-1 and the percolating trainer made it worthwhile to play him on top. He sat behind the two leaders, and seemed ready to strike against 9-1 Meniscus midstretch. But the latter dug in determinedly, and it came down to an excruciating head-bobbing finish which, in this case, went in my favor, yay! Would have been nice if the favorite ran out (I had the 4th and 5th horses for 3rd), but I’m certainly not complaining about the $225 payoff.

I bring this up not only to satisfy my urge to bring it up, but because there are two somewhat similar situations on the front and back end of Saturday’s Pick 3 in races 3-5. In the third, Godolphin’s Safsoof (Gilded Time) is listed as the 5-2 favorite. Like Monsoon Rain, he ran third in his first US race, and earned a field high last-out Beyer of 96. He’s only stretching out to seven furlongs, but it’s worth noting that he’s 1 for 5 lifetime on the dirt, and that win was on a Polytrack surface in England.

In the 5th, it’s Godolphin again (and Walter is going to yell at me for throwing both of them out), this time with Afrashad (Smoke Glacken), also listed as the 5-2 choice. He’s even harder for me to buy; it’s his second career race, first in this country, and first in almost two years! Yes, he’s working well, and his trainer has good stats with limited starters off layoffs and first time North America. But still, he seems to demand a stance against at low odds.

So here’s the Pick 3. In the third: Marco’s Tale (Tale of the Cat) is the only horse that has come out of the Wood and won. (He ran last in the Wood.) He returns to allowance company after running 4th in a stakes against a very good field featuring winner Fabulous Strike, a dark horse for the Woody Stephens; Dontfearthereaper, a nice looking sprinter for Dutrow, Saint Daimon, who won here the other day, and Lafayette runner-up Laptop Computer. He meets no such foes here. Freedom Isn’t Free (Fly So Free) has been knocking on the door with consistent 90+ figs. His trainer, Dominic Galluscio, is only 1 for 34 at the meeting. But that win came on Thursday with 9-2 Shady Lane. Later that day, his Organizer ran second in a state-bred stakes at 12-1. On Friday, he sent out 9-1 Meniscus, the horse that nearly beat me out of the triple. The question is whether Freedom Isn’t Free will get enough of a pace to close into, but he’s consistent and sharp, and his trainer seems to be heating up.

The 4th is a fairly dismal state-bred race, and I could almost single Precise Action (Precise End). He showed an excellent pattern of Beyer improvement before having a rough start trying a mile. He cuts back to seven furlongs and should pick up where he left off with a cleaner beginning. But I’ll also use He’s A Lumberjack (Prime Timber). He was well bet in his first start shipping in from Florida, and ran a field high Beyer of 88 in running second at a mile.

Then in the 5th, a six furlong entry level allowance, I’ll use Saratoga Jet (A.P Jet). This NY-bred is trying open company for the first time. But he changed tactics and rallied from off the pace to win his last (as a restricted allowance race, excluded from the conditions of this race), and that style could suit him well in a race filled with speed (including perhaps the Godolphin entry Afrashad). I’ll also use Cool Springs Saint (Sweetsouthernsaint). Even though he’s never raced shorter than seven furlongs and seems to prefer a mile; I’m not letting Bruce Levine beat me with a layoff horse, with which he hits at 24% over 180 days.

But the horse I’ll really be rooting for is 12-1 Lively Up Yourself (Littlebitlively). Yes, he’s drawn the outside post and goes for low-win percentage trainer Joe Lostritto. He also seems to need the lead. But in his last, a five furlong stakes at Monmouth, he changed tactics and was last early (and watching the race, I didn’t see much to merit the “shuffled back” comment line, and it seemed like a legit change of tactics). He then rallied nicely for third, getting the last furlong in 11 seconds. He finished just four lengths behind Slam Bammy and Terrific Challenge, two very nice sprinters who would both bury this field.

So the Pick 3: 2,6 / 8,9 / 1,2,9 $24 for a $2 bet.

Classic Time for Pletcher

Here's the rundown:

- Platinum Couple (Tale of the Cat) lost the Count Fleet by 15, the Whirlaway by 14, Wood by 10 and the Preakness by 22. "Being from Brooklyn, to win the Belmont would be the ultimate," said trainer Joe Lostritto.[Bloodhorse] I guess, then, that we can look forward to seeing this one in the Brooklyn Handicap this fall. If he’s still in one piece by then.

Todd Pletcher told the Form of the victory by Sunriver (Saint Ballado) in the Peter Pan: "I don't know that he was ridden perfectly to win....he was farther back than he should have been - but I thought it turned out to be the perfect prep for the Belmont," The pace was a bit slow that day, but Sunriver and Rafael Bejarano were undeterred, storming home in 36 seconds flat with that final furlong in 11.40. Just as the first two legs turned out to be coming out parties for Barbaro and Bernardini, Sunriver could emerge in the Belmont, and give us another reason to be excited about racing this summer and fall.

Hemingway’s Key (Notebook) ran the classic “evenly” in the Preakness; he was 11 lengths back at the first call, 11 ¼ at the finish, with not much deviation in between. Yes, Nick Zito seems ready to break out with a big win, and the horse does show improving figs. Zito sounded the typical line of the trainer of a Belmont horse: "I always thought he was a distance horse. This is the race we had picked out for him all along." Man, how many times do we hear that? But a son of Notebook who has never gained ground in the stretch of his two turn races? Nick should be thrilled with another minor piece with this one.

Bob and John (Seeking the Gold) is picking up a lot of support; check out the media selections in this USA Today article. I had him in the Derby, and I suppose that, given the numerous excuses offered by Garrett Gomez, I should give him another shot here. But, for one thing, certainly not at his 5-1 morning line; how did they come up with that? He's training brilliantly, but he did so for the Derby too. The course, field size, and distance may all play to his advantage, but this year's California contingent has done little outside of the state.

I was all over West Point for running Flashy Bull in the Derby, and a couple of readers have made similar remarks about the presence of High Finance (Talk is Money) here. But I must admit that I find him a little scary given his speed and seemingly unlimited potential. Rick Violette, citing Bernardini’s win, pointed out that “improving three-year-olds can improve by leaps and bounds." Like the Preakness winner, High Finance will try two turns for the first time. Unlike Bernardini, that first attempt will be at a mile and a half.

Oh So Awesome tries a fast dirt track for the first time, and even Team Valor’s Barry Irwin seems to acknowledge that he’s grasping at straws here.

"I'm a little apprehensive about this, because we usually buy them based on talent, not pedigree...With him, we were banking 100% on his pedigree - that he would improve on dirt since he's by Awesome Again. That's the play on this one. It's worth a shot." [Thoroughbred Times]

Perhaps, but not if he's not at least 15-1.

Deputy Glitters (Deputy Commander) was a million wide in the Derby, and disliked the slop in the Wood. Throw those out and you see a horse that improved markedly around two turns, exchanging decisions with Bluegrass Cat at Tampa Bay. Or, maybe he just liked Tampa Bay. He’ll be close to the pace if he’s running his race, but, being out of a daughter of sprint runner/sire Glitterman, he seems a bit light on pedigree for the Test of Champions and I doubt he’ll stick around for the finish.

Jazil (Seeking the Gold) worked out a pretty good trip in rallying for 4th in the Derby, and seems logical on the stretch out here given his late foot. It seems that us bettors are finally getting wise in our old age to this type of late-running plodder in the Belmont, and he doesn’t seem to be getting as much support as one would expect, so he could be good value here. Kiaran McLaughlin has said that he wants the horse closer to the pace, but taking a horse out of his preferred running style is not an optimal scenario no matter what the distance. I think we're talking in-the-money prospects only here again.

Of Bluegrass Cat (Storm Cat), Todd Pletcher points out “If you draw a line through the Blue Grass, he's done very little wrong." [Louisville Courier-Journal]; indeed, in hind sight, his 30-1 odds in the Derby seem extremely generous. He finished second that day with as perfect of a trip in a 20 horse field as one could possibly get - Ramon Dominguez said afterwards, "I couldn't get a better trip than I did today." How much better, really, was his effort than others that had rougher trips and finished behind him? Still, he improved before our very eyes throughout the pre-Derby week on the Works, he has impeccable breeding on his distaff side, and Pletcher excels with this kind of time between races. He has enough speed to stay close, and could be the main threat to Sunriver.

Double Galore (Grand Slam) comes here off a maiden win at Hollywood, and in a perfect world, his total in the win pool would be $0. Let’s see how much money uninformed bettors throw away.

Steppenwolfer (Aptitude) always fires, you have to give him that much. And there’s no doubting that he’s sharp given his six furlong work in 1:10 1/5 last weekend (if, as a reader commented, he didn't run his race right there). "It was a pretty brilliant work," Dan Pietz said, no doubt hoping at the same time that it wasn’t too much. The workout seems to belie the fact that the horse has been in training straight through since last September. The thing is, for a closer who is supposed to excel as the races get longer, his closing fractions have never really been that fast. He can stay, that's for sure, but he's shown little inclination that he can actually kick home in a way to get him a win, and I think he’ll be settling for a minor share once again.

Sacred Light (Holy Bull) shows a little closing kick, but I prefer that my Belmont selections have actually crossed the finish line first at least once in their career. He had a decent prep at Churchill, but that was an entry-level allowance race, and he's another one based in California.

PICK: For someone who wrote just a few days ago how wide open this race is, I sound pretty dismissive of everyone other than Pletcher's horses, don't I? It's one thing to get caught up in all the excuses and workouts and connections gushing about their horses, but seeing it all in print in the Form can change one's perception. Mine is that Sunriver should win the Belmont. He's coming up to the race as well as one can expect. Whether he can get the mile and a half is anyone's guess, and he may not present much value. I wouldn't be shocked if he goes off a distinct favorite. That might usually send me scurrying, but I'm just not getting excited about anyone else. So I'm sticking with Sunriver, with Bob and John, Jazil, and Bluegrass Cat to pick up minor shares.

Hope for a Dry Pick Four

- I’ve always found that Accuweather’s website is generally more optimistic than that of the Weather Channel. When there’s nothing but gloom and doom on weather.com, accuweather.com often offers a more optimistic view of the possibilities. Weather.com’s outlook for Friday is simply a raincloud with the notation:

Showers

Not much hope there. But Accuweather.com calls for a “couple of showers,” and then merely “a shower” for Friday night. That’s just three itsy-bitsy showers.

The good news is that both services call for not only a basically dry Saturday, but a windy one as well. Well, actually that could be good and bad news. While a nice breeze will certainly help dry out the track, with the temperature not expected to get past 70, by the time the Belmont goes off, it may start to feel more like Breeders’ Cup day.

Anyway, I’m going to go with the somewhat sunnier drier view and figure that the track will be a harrowed ‘good’ at the beginning of the care, and fast in time for the late $1 million guaranteed Pick Four.

You have to go against the grain somewhere in these bets in order to score, and I think you have to do so in the Acorn, and possibly the Woody Stephens. In my opinion, the last two legs are not nearly as wide open as they’re being portrayed. You know I love Sunriver in the Belmont, and I’ll be back with more on the race later.

I also like Pletcher in the Manhattan. His English Channel (Smart Strike) made steady progress as a three-year old last year, culminating in his head loss to Shakespeare in the Turf Classic Invitational. He was short against older horses in the Turf, but I just love the way he’s come back this year. He hasn’t missed a beat in his two races, both wins, and achieved a lifetime best Beyer of 108 in the Turf Classic (the non-invitational version). He’s won on soft turf, and could improve further in his third start of the year - and he may have to in order to hold off the expected late charge of Cacique.

Dreadnaught sprung back to life in the thrilling Dixie on Preakness day, and could grab a share. Good Reward hasn’t won since taking this race last year at 14-1. Relaxed Gesture was very disappointing in Dubai. He could take this on his best, but it’s hard to believe he can match strides here with the sharp top choice. I’m surprised that Grey Swallow is the 3-1 second choice in the morning line. He couldn’t have had an easier trip in his mile and a half win in the Jim Murray against an uninspiring field of four.

It looks like an obvious Too Much Bling/Songster play in the opening leg, the Woody Stephens. But still, I get a bit nervous at the thought of the two of them hooking up. And not only is Keyed Entry still in the race to perhaps contest the pace as well, he’s tied with Too Much Bling for the top selection in the Form’s consensus box! However, as discussed here in the comments section, neither Walter nor I like his chances at all.

Too Much Bling (Rubiano) should be favored on Saturday, but for one thing, his Bay Shore, in which he beat Songster by nine and earned a 113 Beyer, came on a sealed, sloppy track, and remember Accuweather.com; I’m expecting a fast track, and his fastest dry track number is 102. Also, Walter opined that seven furlongs is not his best distance, and a closer look at his three efforts at that distance shows that he’s run very fast early and not nearly as such in the latter stages. In the San Vincente, after going 21.6 and 22.2, he then came home in 25 and 13.60.

Songster (Songandaprayer) won’t have the pace his way as he did in his breakthrough romp in the Hirsch Jacobs on Preakness day (107 Beyer). He was able to lope to a half of nearly 46 seconds, which no doubt helped him come home in 11.80 and 12.04 in the six furlong race. That's just not going to happen on Saturday. Still, except for the Bay Shore, when he may have disliked the slop, he always comes home pretty strong; under 13 seconds in the last furlong each of his two fast track efforts at the distance. I think he’ll be a formidable foe for Baffert’s speedster.

Still, I'm a little queasy about this race. I wish I felt more secure about this, but I don't. I'd love to keep it to those two because I want to go deep in the Acorn. But I could definitely see using horses like Noonmark, who ran a terrific second to Sharp Humor in the Swale at this same distance; and Likely, whose Keeneland race may or may not have been a fluke, but who may be able to pick up the pieces if he bounces back from his subsequent loss at Churchil.

The Acorn, I think, is the race to spread and try to catch a price in the wacky, wide open three-year old filly division. Pletcher, who will play a key role in these last three legs, sends out morning line favorite Adieu. I think she’s vulnerable, not because I don’t think she’ll run well, but because I think there are some sharp, improving young fillies, any of whom can strike at a good price.

In fact, I’ll go almost ‘all’ in here, eliminating just Last Romance and She’s Excellent. Two of these are particularly interesting. Miraculous Miss (Mr. Greeley) is unbeaten in five tries on dry tracks. This half-sister to Tiger Heart has been running slower figs, but she looks like she could benefit from what could be a lively pace. And Hello Liberty (Forest Camp) tries a mile for the first time, but she’s never run a bad race and earned a lifetime best 97 Beyer in winning the G2 Nassau BC Handicap in her last.

So here it is. I close my eyes, say a prayer and go with Too Much Bling and Songster in the opener; then hope for a nice price in the Acorn; and coast home with English Channel and Sunriver in the Manhattan and Belmont.

Belmont Notes - June 8

- Pletcher has entered Keyed Entry in the seven furlong Woody Stephens, but it sounds like he's not going to run. "After running a 1 1/4 -mile race (Kentucky Derby) is he ready to fire his very best?" [Albany Times-Union] It could be argued that he only ran about seven-eighths that day too. Pletcher apparently got a tip from Tom Albertrani than helped him decide to save Sunriver for the Belmont.

"Tom Albertrani (Bernardini's trainer) told me last winter that Bernardini might be the best horse he has ever had," Pletcher said. "We thought about sending Sunriver in the Preakness, but when they decided to go there with Bernardini, we switched Sunriver to the Peter Pan." [NY Post]

Rick Violette is looking for High Finance to be on the lead, and Newsday's Paul Moran thinks that the race has a pace setup not unlike the Belmont won by Commendable ($39.60) in 2000.

"It seems that we have the most speed. If [the lead] comes easily,"...Violette said, "we'll take it. Sir Percy won the Epsom Derby [the 12-furlong British classic last week] without having had a race over a mile. Hopefully, we'll follow in his shoes." [Newsday]

- Deputy Glitters will scratch if the track turns up wet, according to Albertrani. "After the way he ran in the Champagne and Wood Memorial.....we definitely know he doesn't like the mud."

Thursday Morning Notes - June 8

- Reader Bank Check pointed out that Wayne Lukas did have a winner at Churchill on Wednesday, his first of the meeting, and only his second winner over all in his last 52 starters.

On Thursday, he sends out Ex Caelis (Fusaichi Pegasus), finally in the entry-level allowance for which she's been eligible ever since she went directly from a maiden win in her second start to graded stakes company. She’d been battling on gamely for money spots behind some top fillies, but was eased in the Kentucky Oaks. She’s listed as the 2-1 favorite, but one wonders if her spirit has been broken. She certainly seems like a vulnerable favorite, if she does indeed go off as the choice.

Bootery (Storm Boot) ran a bang-up third in a field-high 81 Beyer in his first race around two turns, and seems more like the logical favorite to me. However, there are two others worth watching who will probably present better value. She’s a Devil Slew was a disappointment running 4th in her first try against winners. But that was at the tricky 7 ½ furlong distance, and here she tries two turns for the first time. By Seattle Slew out of the graded stakes winner mare She’s a Devil Due (Devil His Due), she’s certainly bred for the stretchout.

And Neil Howard sends out recent graduate Maxine’s Hymn (Seeking the Gold). She’s demonstrated that she loves two turns, with a win and two very close seconds in four tries (and the 4th one was at Keeneland). She’s a bit lighter than the other contenders Beyer-wise, but is eligible to improve. She’s out of a Danzig half-sister to the multiple graded winner Tricky Creek.

New York RFP's Near

- Empire Racing Associates chief Jeff Perlee told the Saratogian that the horsemen-backed aspirant to replace NYRA has “partners in place” to help finance their bid for the New York racing franchise. But he won’t say just who they are until the state issues its Request for Proposals (RFP). ERA’s heart is certainly in the right place, but the worry is that a partnership with the wrong big-pocketed entity will eventually lead to them ceding control to parties that don’t have the game’s best interests at heart.

We may find out their identities very soon. One J. Patrick Barrett, a former CEO at Avis who is the head of the panel overseeing the franchise process, wants to release the RFP this week. "I'm a businessman. I want to get this job done....... I want to get it done and over with.” [Bloodhorse]

Whoa man, what’s the big rush? What's the matter, do you have some other, more important business to attend to? That's just great. The entire future history of the racing world is at stake, and this guy can't wait to get out of there. He sounds more anxious to get back to the board room than George W. Bush must certainly be to retreat to his ranch.

"I'm going to be very disappointed if it isn't done this year."

Forget about the highest bidder, this guy sounds like he's ready to award it to the first bidder. But what do you expect? It was a political appointment to a businessman with no connection or interest in the game that I know of, and the governor's motives are known only to him. It just doesn't make me feel good to read his comments that reveal little genuine interest in the subject at hand, and I think that all of the people who make their living in the game, as well as the rest of us who crave the action and can't imagine what we'd do on Saturday afternoons without it, deserve a hell of a lot better.

From the sound of it, it may take until the end of the year for the prospective bidders to merely sort the whole thing out and determine how to respond.

Government sources said the inch-thick document, which has been revised at least seven times, is a complex package that will outline specific demands of bidders. But in an unusual twist for many government RFPs, it will also leave much to the creativity of bidders to propose new directions in which to take Thoroughbred racing in New York.

The RFP, according to a government source with first-hand knowledge of the document, permits bidders to choose from various options as they respond to the bid. For example, they can base their bids with or without a plan to add video lottery terminals at Belmont; current law permits NYRA to have the machines only at its Aqueduct facility.

The RFP permits both for-profit and not-for-profit entities to bid on their own or with partners. The highly detailed document also will require bidders to recommend how the state's pari-mutuel law will have to be changed to enable their bid to be adopted. Bidders will have to further address what becomes of the state's off track betting corporations, such as whether current law remains as is or if changes are needed to permit collaboration between the OTBs and racetracks. [Bloodhorse]

- What do you think is the over/under for how many minutes of ABC’s two hour Belmont telecast will be devoted to Barbaro? Around 22?

Belmont Notes - June 7

- Wayne Lukas is not only having a bad year in the Triple Crown - when's the last time, I wonder, he didn't have a single entrant in the entirety of the series - but he's 0 for 34 at the current Churchill meeting.

Lukas is the last trainer to win two of the classics with different horses; he took the Derby with Grindstone and the Belmont with Editor's Note in 1996. Tom Albertrani will be trying to do the same with Deputy Glitters. His comment line for the Derby is "11w," and Sherry Ross of the NY Daily News asks: How did jockey Jose Lezcano get to the finish line without snagging a broad-brimmed hat and a mint julep off some lady in the crowd? Talk about your lukewarm favorite, it's Bluegrass Cat, virtually by default, at 3-1. I'm willing to virtually guarantee that Bluegrass Cat will not be the favorite at post time. I think that Sunriver will. I also think he's going to win the race; that seemed apparent to me even as he was zeroing in on Lewis Michael at the eighth pole three weeks ago in the Peter Pan. He got that final furlong in an almost unbelievable 11 2/5.

The Peter Pan hasn't produced a Belmont winner since AP Indy in 1992; before then, Danzig Connection, in 1986, and Coastal in 1981. [EDIT: OK, I was referring to horses that won the Peter Pan...see comments section below for further info.] Like Sunriver, those three skipped the Derby, though in the cases of AP Indy and Sunriver, it wasn't by design. Sunriver probably wasn't ready to beat Barbaro on that day anyway, and now he comes up to the Belmont perfectly. I've been getting distracted by some of the others who may be live at double digit odds. However, seeing it in print via the Racing Form pp's confirms my belief that not only will he win, but he will do so as the favorite; I think that he looks like a standout on paper. I think that reader Steve D's hopes of 4-1 is an absolute best-case scenario.

We're all happy to see that both Platinum Couple and Double Galore will grace us with their presence. Given the wagering patterns in these post-Giacomo Triple Crown races, I think the oddsmaker was correct to make them both 30-1, even though 300-1 would be a more accurate assessment of their chances to win.

Meanwhile, the weather here is fucking miserable; it's been raining for the last 24 hours, at least, and it's supposed to linger on into tomorrow. There are scattered showers in the forecast for Friday and Saturday. It may take a lot of work to get that track fast for Saturday. It dries out very slowly - significantly more so than Aqueduct - and in the past, it has taken massive efforts to get that track fast for big days. And if the forecast turns to a steadier rain, it could turn into an attendance embarrassment for NYRA.

Spitzer Tries Again

- Democratic gubernatorial candidate Eliot Spitzer......what is ‘gubernatorial’ anyway? What relationship does that word have to ‘governor?’ Why don't they call them Gubernators then? Anyway, Spitzer has re-filed the indictments against two Belmont clerks of scales for allegedly allowing riders to falsify their riding weights. The move comes despite the fact that the case has been ridiculed and more or less discredited by the racing press (like that has a lot of influence), and reviled as "political grandstanding" in a widely publicized (even beyond the racing press) 20 page letter by a member of the original grand jury.

Spitzer’s office denied that the move was an attempt to tie up a potentially embarrassing loose end come November, and prosecutors insist that the charges have merit and that investigators collected videotape evidence of the falsifications.

But here’s another thing. Nobody amongst the bettors who were supposedly cheated could possibly care less about this. We care about illegal medication and conspiracies to fix races, but very few of us worry about a few pounds on a thousand pound animal going 40 miles and hour. In fact, personally, I would prefer that a sympathetic clerk of scales give a rider struggling on the scales the benefit of the doubt, or even a little more, rather than see the jockey endangering his/her health trying to keep pounds off.

- Pletcher said that he’s considering running Keyed Entry in the Woody Stephens Breeders Cup on Belmont Day, but he’s wary of Too Much Bling and Songster. "At seven furlongs he's as good as anybody, but I have to decide if five weeks after running a mile and a quarter it makes sense to run with two very good sprinters." [Daily Racing Form] What I want to know is why a trainer who won five Belmonts in a row would have a seven furlong sprint named for him.

- Giacomo is not ready to return to the races, a fact that seemed evident given the s-l-o-w works I’ve been receiving alerts on lately. Sherriffs usually cranks him up slowly but steadily to a quick work, but he hasn’t come close to one. "He's just not to the point where I want to lean on him too much.” [Daily Racing Form]

Belmont Is Wide Open

- Three more workouts for the Belmont today.

Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III) winner Deputy Glitters, went five furlongs in :59 4/5, sixth fastest time of the day among 47 working that distance, while California-based Sacred Light was timed in 1:16 2/5 for six furlongs, slowest of six workers at that distance. High Finance's time of 1:13 3/5 for six furlongs was the best for three horses working that distance at Aqueduct. [Bloodhorse]

Seriously, other than Platinum Couple or Double Galore should either of them run, is there anyone in this field who would be a total shocker should he win? Nick Zito is just sitting on a big win, I can feel it, and his Hemingway's Key, drastically improved in the Preakness, is training steadily on the Saratoga training track. Deputy Glitters, as I mentioned last week, seems to be growing in stature, and Tom Albertrani, back from his suspension, was pleased with today's workout, as he timed the colt in "12s" for each eighth of a mile of the work. "That is what you like to see going into a race like the Belmont."

High Finance, according to Ed Fountaine in the NY Post (and I'll have to check his work when I have a chance,) has the highest Beyer in this field, the 103 he earned in his allowance win at Belmont.

"That was his launching pad," trainer Rick Violette said yesterday outside his barn at Aqueduct. "He showed some significant quality. He just galloped."

"Yes, it's a step up, but he's acting like he can do it. He looks like one of those dangerous 3-year-olds that keeps improving, sometimes in quantum leaps. He's sound, he's happy, he's training well. Now is the time to attack." [NY Post]

Stranger things than Oh So Awesome have happened, Sacred Light would be a surprise, but not a Sarava. This is one wide open race. I've been saying that I like Sunriver, and I do. But with the uncertainty of the mile and a half distance, I think you could make a case that the way to go is to take a shot with someone who is double digit odds.

- We're all rooting for Barbaro of course, but some of this is getting a little weird. As if sending emails to a horse isn't odd enough, NYRA's VP Bill Nader told the Albany Times-Union that they're hoping to have a live shot of Barbaro on the giant video screen on Belmont day. No word yet as to whether he'll give us his picks for the late Pick 4.

- Belmont Day has always been the one time that I could count on not getting distracted by simulcast races and being able to fully focus on the live races, because NYRA has always nixed them for the big day. Not this year. The 56,268 fans in attendance will also be able to wager on Monmouth, Churchill, Finger Lakes, and Hollywood.

Christening To Get Her Christening

- Christening is the 2-1 morning line favorite in the first at Delaware on Tuesday, with Ramon Dominguez aboard. She’s in for a $40,000 tag, and what do you usually think when you see a horse that cost $40,000 at auction run for that price tag over 20 months and more-money-than-I'd-like-to-think-about later? Not to mention the workout gap (she had tied up after her May 6 work), and the two slow drills since then? I’d be rather surprised if she were to be claimed. My experience with Christening has been a little frustrating since she was sent down to Delaware; the reports have been sporadic and I feel more on the outside than a part-owner. I do know that EQB, a half-partner in this venture, really wants to get her sold, and they’re running her in a spot where they think she could win impressively enough to attract an offer. I honestly don’t know much about how well she’s doing exactly, but I doubt they’d be running her if they thought she’d make herself look foolish.

There’s one other first-timer – Splendid Affair (Mt Livermore) – who goes for trainer Ronald Alfano 7 for 24 at this meeting. Scott Lake has the second choice in the morning line, Artsy Girl (Behrens). The trainer has won 28 out of 91 races – 30% - at Delaware. Artsy Girl ran a good third when entered for 50K in her debut, and was far behind in a maiden special last time. Looks like the speed of those who’ve raced, though she could have some company from the rail filly, Stormin’widow, who ran well against cheaper in her debut. Lady Bella drops in for a tag for the first time.

- Flower Alley worked six furlongs in 1:13.52 and Pletcher said that he’s "one or two works away.."

Flower Alley is expected to be pointed to the major races at Saratoga this summer - the Whitney and Woodward - before gearing up for the Breeders' Cup. [Daily Racing Form]

Belmont News - June 5

- Bob and John worked six furlongs in 1:12 1/5, fastest time of the day among the dozen horses working that distance at Santa Anita. Garrett Gomez, winning at a 24% clip at Belmont, continues to talk up his chances and excusing his 17th place finish in the Derby.

"He's a horse that doesn't want to be jostled. He's got a nice, long, fluid stride, and once you get him into a rhythm, it's beautiful. But once you get him knocked off stride, it takes him too long to get going again."

The smaller field for the Belmont and the track's wide, sweeping turns "will do him a world of good," Gomez said. "I think it will help his chances a lot. [NY Post]

Sunriver, who, at this moment, I still love in the race, went five furlongs in 1:00 1/5 in company with the filly Adieu.

"Sunriver I was a little afraid to work by himself for this big of a race because he's always worked in company," Pletcher said. "We got a little more solid work, which you would expect in a company situation. I thought his Peter Pan was the perfect prep for the Belmont." [Thoroughbred Times]

Derby runner-up Bluegrass Cat worked a bit slower than his stablemate, getting the distance in 1:01.72.

The training track at Belmont was labeled “good,” but it was wet enough both there and at Aqueduct to cause some trainers to change their plans. Sacred Light will work on Tuesday instead, and David Hofmans said "The horse looks great. This is the best he's looked in a long time." [Brisnet]. High Finance ‘s scheduled work at Aqueduct was also postponed until Tuesday. Jazil’s was cancelled altogether. "We're not going to work," [Kiaran McLaughlin said. "He's a light-framed horse and he never blows out a match anyway."

- A bit late for this, but I didn’t want to forget to mention the coverage of the Preakness in the May 27 print edition of Bloodhorse. We like to pick on Haskin, but give credit where it’s due, and he was seemingly all over the track and backstretch before and after the race, and it’s an excellent piece of reporting. (And it’s available on their website too.) The photos accompanying the piece are particularly excellent; there’s a heart-wrenching full page shot of Prado looking around desperately for help as he tries to comfort the frightened horse; and another of Michael Matz reaching the scene on the track as Jockeys' Guild head Darrell Haire looks on with Prado. And there are the usual stage-by-stage photos of the Preakness itself. I look at the first photo after the break, and can just picture Barbaro accelerating into a perfect spot on the rail behind Like Now and inside of Sweetnorthernsaint and Bernardidni....

- Kiaran McLaughlin is pointing to a July 1 stakes at Monmouth for the return of Henny Hughes. Brother Derek will take some time off and return at Del Mar.

Big Carrots and Belmont Notes

- Barbaro chomped "phenomenally large" carrots as a wide-open field of 12 takes shape for the Belmont. Steve Crist says don’t bother to start scouring musty chart books from decades past to find a weaker Belmont lineup.

How about going back a mere 52 weeks?
......
There's no one in this year's field who appears remotely as talented as Afleet Alex, but there's no evidence that Giacomo is any better than half of this year's lineup. Last year's Belmont had four graded-stakes winners, while this one has five. Last year's field had just three runners (Afleet Alex, Giacomo, and Reverberate) who had ever run a Beyer Speed Figure of 98 or better, while this year's has seven - High Finance (103), Bob and John (102), Deputy Glitters (102), Sunriver (102), Bluegrass Cat (101), Sacred Light (99), and Steppenwolfer (98). [Daily Racing Form]

Jazil, High Finance, Sunriver, and Bluegrass Cat are all scheduled to work out on Monday morning. Dan Pietz is hoping that Steppenwolfer is OK after his six furlong work in 1:10 1/5 on Friday.

“The fast work was probably a combination of a fast track and him working well. If you saw him do it, you would have thought he went in 1:14.”

Although Peitz said Steppenwolfer looked fine, he won’t know what impact the work had until the colt goes back to the track to train.

“I’m expecting him to be good when he goes back to the track,” Peitz said. “I’ll probably jog him a couple miles tomorrow, unless the track is real sloppy, then we’d probably shedrow him.” [NYRA]

Team Valor purchased Oh So Awesome because they figured that the crop was a weak one and that the Belmont would be up for grabs. Though I’m sure they weren’t figuring on the eventual turn of events to make that so, they are right where they want to be. Barry Irwin told the Thoroughbred Times: "I've seen worse Belmonts for sure, but there's not anything in there that will scare anyone away." [Thoroughbred Times] He closed well enough for third in his Belmont debut to, I suppose, make him a viable candidate here.

NYRA VP Bill Nader maintains that "I think 60,000 is a realistic number for the Belmont Stakes Day attendance." [Albany Times-Union] With no horses with any real star power, NYRA is emphasizing the tradition of the race in its print ads, with pictures of Secretariat’s romp, Affirmed and Alydar’s duel, and a picture of our own trainer, Billy Turner in reference to Seattle Slew. They’re also reminding us that admission is “only $5.” That’s half of the price last year, but still more than the usual $2 grandstand admission. But the alcohol ban is still in effect, at the request of the NYPD and Nassau County police, according to.....Nader. [NY Post] I make the over-under 54,000.

- Attima took all the money for the G2 Honeymoon BC Handicap at Hollywood Sunday, and coasted home to a win at 4-5 over the previously-undefeated-in-the-US Foxysox. Take a look at the past performances, and you’ll see another example, as with the male division in the Shoemaker last week, of horses with very ordinary form in Europe moving to the fore of their divisions over here. Attima, by the Gone West stallion Zafonic, could do no better than third in three tries against graded company in France, but now moves on the the G1 Hollywood Oaks Invitational, for which she earns an automatic bid. Maybe. "The Oaks is in just 25 days," [trainer Julio Canani] told TVG, citing several other races later in the season. "That's not enough time. The first thing to me is the animal." [Bloodhorse]

Foxysox, winless in five races in the UK, suffered her first loss in her fifth start here.

Odds and Ends - June 4

- Todd Pletcher sent out first-timer Scat Daddy (Johannesburg) on Saturday at Belmont; this was the horse that John Velazquez was supposed to return on at Monmouth on Friday; but he was scratched that day. He was bet down to .65-to-1, and won by five. Of the eight first-time two year-olds that Pletcher has run at the Belmont and Churchill meetings, six have won, and the other two ran second. Scat Daddy won so easily that the chart caller was moved to note that “he was gone before the whip was turned over.” I’m anxious to see how they translate that one for the comment line in the Form.

Johannesburg (Hennessy) had his first winner the other day in the UK; and I believe that Scat Daddy is his first one in the U.S. Scat Daddy is out of a Mr. Prospector mare, and is, in fact, inbred 4x2 to that stallion. The broodmare, Love Style, is a half-sister to the nice turf horse Grat. Scat Daddy's second dam is the G1 (Las Virgenes) winner Likeable Style.

- Hey, Christening (Vicar) is entered in the first race at Delaware on Tuesday! She’s in for a $40,000 tag and has Ramon Dominguez up to ride for Graham Motion; doesn't get much better than that at Delaware. The hope is that she’ll run well and get sold. If she doesn’t get claimed. The word is that we think she should be “very competitive” in this spot.

- Kiaran Fallon dismissed speculation that he was unhappy with the decision to let Horatio Nelson start in the Epsom Derby. (I should actually say the Vodophone Derby. We’re unhappy about adding ‘Presented by Yum’ to the Kentucky Derby...they apparently sold out the entire name of the race.)

"I just felt that he was a little bit flat - he wasn't giving the same bounce that he had done...”

"But he was fine when I trotted him up and down a few times, in fact the more I trotted him the better he felt.

"I was happy with him. If I wasn't happy then I wouldn't have gone round on him.

"He travelled brilliantly on the snaff in the race then we went to go and challenge and it happened. Obviously it must have been one of the uneven bits of ground that you can get on the camber at Epsom. He twisted a joint and that did it.” [Sporting Life]

- Mike Hushion sent out My Little Bean (David) in the 4th at Belmont Sunday; in her only prior race, in February, this three year-old NY bred was 4-1 in a 12 horse field, but ran a distant 5th after a bad start. On Sunday, she was 4-1 morning line, and was hanging around 7-2 with a few minutes to go. The late money came in on this one in abundance folks; she went from 3-1 to 5-2 to 2-1 in the last two flashes. (Again, odds with three minutes to go is something I'd love to see in race charts and past performances.) But she was a bit slow away from the gate again, and never threatened in rallying for third behind the favorite Mrs. Chippy in the six furlong affair.

My Little Bean was running very well at the finish though, and was past the winner shortly passed the wire. She continued to gallop out strongly around the sweeping Belmont turn, and jockey Pedro Morales needed outrider assistance to pull her up. Definitely one to watch on the stretch out and/or on a wet surface.

Bad and Good On Display

- Gary Stevens told us all to keep our chins up after the ultimately fatal injury to Horatio Nelson this morning on TVG, assuring us that there would still be great racing to come. They seemed like hollow words at the time. Barbaro’s injury didn’t scream ‘fatal’ to me in its immediate aftermath. I suppose the book is still considered to be ‘out’ as to whether I was right. But this one left no doubt and it was truly devastating. Frank Lyons warned that we might want to turn away as they showed the replay, and I wish I’d heeded his advice; you could practically hear the snap just from seeing the violence of the breakdown. And of course, there was the sense that the whole thing could have been avoided.

But as the day went on, Stevens was right - there was some tremendous racing to come. Life, and racing, go on, and unfortunately, there’s a price to be paid for the endless hours of joy that we all derive from the mysteries and triumphs that the game provides us. I’m interested to see if the reaction differs over there – already I’ve noticed a distinct lack of trying to blame someone for allowing the horse to run. The account in the UK’s TimesOnline merely notes that he was observed and “passed fit.” Trying to find fault seemed to be the first reaction over here after the Preakness, and I for one am interested to see whether that’s the case over there.

In fact, I wonder if there’s going to be much reaction at all. If you go to the Racing Post home page, the big story is undoubtedly Sir Percy, and Horatio Nelson is a secondary story. Over here, we didn't start to hear about Bernardini until Tuesday or so.

But getting back to the great racing, let’s start with the Opening Verse at Churchill, where it was Rush Bay (Cozzene) making it two in a row after his disappointing four-year old debut. I was all over him that time, and touted him here. I just missed his subsequent race; I guess I wasn’t enthused enough about his 4th place finish to bother putting him on my watch list. In this race, I went instead for 9-2 Free Thinking, who got the lead and set a slow pace. But Rush Bay, closer to the pace once again, was right behind, and after putting my choice away, had to contend with the even money favorite, Purim. It looked like Purim was going to pass him around the sixteenth pole, but Rush Bay resisted and prevailed in a dramatic stretch duel.

[Aaccording to the race chart, Purim “appeared to be struck in the face by the whip of RUSH BAY’s rider nearing the sixteenth pole." As far as I know, that’s supposed to be an automatic DQ. No mention of that in the Form or Bloodhorse stories, and watching the replay was inconclusive from the pan shot.]

It’s the first stakes winner of the year for Cozzene, who is a career 8% stakes winners-from-foals sire.

Another fantastic finish in the G2 Milady at Hollywood. Patrick Valenzuela rode Proposed on the lead as if he had the measure of 9-1 Somethingaboulaura even as he was tugged to a 45.75-second first half, and started to edge away from that rival going into the turn. But Valenzuela seemed to be taken by surprise when Victor Espinoza drove Somethingaboutlaura past him. "I beat that other filly sprinting and I thought she'd [fade] quicker than she did." [Daily Racing Form] From there, they were neck and neck down the stretch, and when Proposed was finally able to open a late lead, she then had to hold off the late charge of the even money favorite Star Parade, doing so by a lunging head. A little consolation for her sire, Benchmark, given Brother Derek’s unsuccessful Triple Crown campaign.

And then there was Lost in the Fog. The skeptics were ready to pounce, and even some of the believers may have wavered had he failed to respond here. But it was a performance far more typical of the ones that earned him the Eclipse. He was able to sit behind Exciting Metro for a quarter mile, buried that one with a second quarter burst, then laid down the gauntlet with an impressive eighth of 11.29 seconds when Kelly’s Landing loomed at the top of the stretch, and got home a length and a quarter in front in a final time of 1:08.52 (final eighth of 12.16). Russell Baze said "I didn't move him or anything, just let him run his race." [Thoroughbred Times]

Lost in the Fog is a horse with a little panache, and one that seems to get people talking, and that’s a good thing. He beat a nice horse in Kelly’s Landing – he won this race last year with a 112 Beyer – but I don’t think he did anything that will convince his skeptics, and the debates are sure to continue. However, he's definitely back; the Smile Sprint Handicap at Calder could be his next race.

Horatio Nelson Euthanized

- The injuries to Horatio Nelson turned out to be fatal.

There was damage to the ligaments and nerves around the horse's joints and with open wounds, which could already have been infected, there was a unanimous decision taken by the five vets present that it was a hopeless case and it was in the horse's best interests to put him down. [Sporting Life]

Regarding the pre-race examination of the horse, all I’m reading thus far is an official statement to the effect that "The veterinary surgeon and the trainer agreed that they were satisfied that Horatio Nelson was fit to compete." I imagine we’ll be hearing more about that.

I think it’s fair to say, however, that here in the post-Barbaro era, Horatio Nelson would not have started if he was racing in this country. No connection between anything that happened before the start of the Preakness and the injury to Barbaro has been established. Yet enough attention was paid to the debate so that I believe that we’ll be seeing a more cautious attitude, at least for the foreseeable future.

The official statement from the UK’s Horseracing Regulatory Authority added that: "The trainer and the vet at the start, Jenny Hall, discussed the way the horse was moving.” I think that any horse that even just gets to that stage here will not compete in the race, especially in a big stakes.

Epsom Derby Another Big Bummer

- Another potential black eye for the sport this morning, as Horatio Nelson, the second choice for the Epsom Derby, broke down gruesomely during the stretch run after the TV cameras showed jockey Kiaran Fallon consulting with a track steward and trainer Aidan O’Brian just prior to the race. Excellent job on TVG spotting this before the race (it actually was a phone call by Gary Stevens that alerted them to what was going on); the word was that the horse could be scratched, and the start was delayed for a couple of minutes.

After the race, TVG showed replays that clearly showed that the horse was badly washed out as Fallon spoke with O’Brian and seemed to jog the horse away from the rest of the field as if to test him. Unfortunately, he was not scratched. (Stevens explained that it’s very difficult to get horses scratched under these circumstances there, adding that monies wagered with bookies at the racetrack would not be refunded once they are placed.) Horses very rarely break down on the grass in Europe according to Lyons and Stevens, so it will be interesting to see the reaction in the UK. We read last week that British TV wouldn’t even carry replays of Barbaro’s breakdown, and this accident was far more difficult to watch.

It was a rousing finish, as Sir Percy squeezed up the rail and got his nose down right at the wire to just nail maiden longshot Dragon Dancer, with pacesetter Dylan Thomas hanging on for third. The best horse in the race, however, may have been the 4th place finisher Hala Bek, whose rally was badly interrupted by him bearing out badly in deep stretch, before recovering and re-rallying to miss the whole thing by probably around ¼ of a length.

Amazing finish, but as in the Preakness, the race itself will be overshadowed by the breakdown of Horatio Nelson and the inevitable finger-pointing regarding what happened before the race, and why he was permitted to run.