President's Niatross Day

- Thanks to Erin for writing in about the video of jockey-ridden trotters in Europe that I thought I saw and I guess I did. I just can't seem to recall where I saw it.

But I do have a video of the opposite to offer. Certainly the most famous instance of thoroughbreds pulling drivers in sulkies was the time trial by the amazing pacer Niatross (one of those horses whose name I just can't mention without first preceding it with an appropriate superlative) in October, 1980 at the Red Mile in Lexington. Niatross had by then long recovered from his two race losing streak, the only losses of his career, which I discussed in this post which I wrote, by absolute sheer coincidence, exactly one year ago Monday. Seems like there's something about President's Day that makes me think of Niatross. Hmmm, let's see, maybe it's because he's a son of another superb pacer in Albatross, and our current President is a son of.... Nope, that's not it.

Niatross was getting ready to sweep the Pacing Triple Crown by winning the Messenger at Roosevelt when he went to Lexington to try and surpass his own race world record, a 1:52.4 at the Syracuse Fairgrounds, as well as the standing time trial record of 1:52 by Steady Star.

And using two thoroughbreds pulling sulkies as prompters, he not only shattered the mark, he pulverized it, and in the process became the first harness horse to break the 1:50 mark. He stopped the timer in 27.3, 54.3, 1:21.4, and then, as driver Clint Galbraith allowed one of the thoroughbreds to come up on the inside to add some urgency, they got the final quarter in 27.2 for an unheard of final time of 1:49.1.

The video of the event posted below was taped, according to the blurb on You Tube, with a camcorder, though it must have been known as something else back in 1980, yes? It's a lot of fun to hear the crowd ooo and aah, at first merely with nervous anticipation as Niatross got to the half in the same time as Steady Star, but then erupting to drown out the track announcer when the three-quarter time was posted, and just going crazy as he crossed the wire. So here it is...enjoy, and have a happy holiday, whatever you want to call it.

Life Goes On

- The news is not good on the stable front. Just Zip It, who was so impressive running second in her debut last November, was scheduled to make her return after a minor setback on Monday. But now, another problem.

She has a shin splint that could develop into a saucer fracture if we don't back off on her now. With a month's rest, it should be fine, but that obviously means we won't be entering her for the race on the 19th. In fact, [trainer Bill Turner] and I agreed that the most sensible thing was to send her down to [the] farm in Virginia. She can get the rest there somewhat cheaper than at Belmont, and when she's ready to start working again, they have a 5/8ths-mile training track. So that's the plan. I wouldn't expect her to be ready to race for another three months, though that will obviously depend on how she progresses from here.

One does need patience in this game.

Patience, yes. As far as the other two I have shares in, Highland Cat is fit and ready, but with no place to go. There have been no suitable races for him in the condition book. Most recently, he was entered in a 35K maiden claiming sprint which didn't go for this weekend; and even that would have been merely a workout, as he needs more distance and, most of all, the turf. Christening is still recovering from a fractured condylar bone, and the last I heard, we're trying to sell her.

I do still have my parking pass. But I haven't used it now in over - gasp - two weeks! And I'm not really sure when the next time will be. It may indeed be on Monday; but it may not. I must say that my last visit to my beloved winter racing paradise in Ozone Park was a real drag, and left an awful taste. It was the Feb 3 card that was short-circuited when the jockeys refused to ride over the Jamaica Hospital dispute - it all seems far longer ago than just two weeks. The spill that precipitated it, resulting in the euthanization of two horses, was a nasty one, and it seemed worse after I realized that the horse that originally broke down was a highly suspicious dropdown.

Perhaps even worse was the reaction, or lack thereof, of the crowd, at least where I was watching. Look, I know that life goes on, as do the races. There's money at stake. It's not like the other riders stop in their tracks and go back to make sure everyone's OK whenever there's a spill. After last year's fateful Preakness, the 13th race went on just as scheduled, and millions of dollars were wagered. So I don't expect that everyone would just drop everything and go rushing outside to see if everyone was OK. But, coming just a few days after the passing of Barbaro and all the heartfelt emotions that accompanied it, it seemed particularly jarring to see and hear the total lack of compassion or concern for the fallen horses and riders.

Whatsmore, when racing was canceled without any real explanation, I jumped to the conclusion that jockey Norberto Arroyo, Jr had suffered critical, and yes, fatal injuries. This was due to the mysterious nature of the announcements, as well as the fact that I tend to get rather dramatic at times. So, even though simulcasting continued and Gulfstream was in the midst of its big Donn Handicap card, I was outta there. I just didn't want to be there anymore. And since then, I read of a crowd of just 977 on Thursday, as well as news of nearly $4 million of additional losses for NYRA in January, casting a further pall on the whole scene.

It was not the first time that I've left a racetrack in disgust, wondering when I'll next return; though it's usually been due to getting nailed at the wire by some 37-1 shot who looked like he should have been 371-1.

It was also not the first time I thought I had witnessed a person's death at the Big A. One day, many many years ago (though I couldn't begin to say exactly when), I was standing out on the apron of the clubhouse, when I suddenly heard a man screaming for help. I looked and saw a rather young man clutching his chest, screaming in apparent agony. For a moment, he looked directly at me, and I saw the horror in his face. He was spinning around on the ground in a gruesome contortion; his head served as a pivot with his legs thrashing him around in a circle. I was absolutely convinced, especially given my usual tendency to embellish matters, that I was watching the man's life drain right out of him. I'm not a doctor, and I don't play one on TV, but I had already diagnosed a burst aorta, causing instant death. I rushed inside to get help, but already, a couple of the Pinkerton guards were running out to the scene. I was positive, however, that it was all too late.

I retreated upstairs to the second floor seats, where I could no longer see the victim. But the stone silence and solemn faces of the crowd gathered around on the apron spoke volumes. I put down the Form; my day of handicapping was over. I looked around at the mostly empty stands; at the seats stained by bird droppings; the people going about their handicapping despite the tragedy unfolding below them; the incessant blinking of the numbers on the tote board; the anonymous winter horses being led to the paddock for the next race. I became contemplative, pondering the fleeting time that we're all granted on this earth, and wondering if I really wanted to spend a significant portion of what was left of mine in this place. I felt disembodied, as if I had floated away and really wasn't there anymore.

But suddenly, I was jarred back to reality by a commotion from the crowd below. "Hey! Hey! Whoa! What tha..." I looked up, and lo and behold, there he was, the very man I had written off for the big OTB parlor in the sky, triumphantly galloping away from the scene, burst aorta and all, laughing hysterically with a friend over the devious trick he had played on those who took the time to care. I shook my head, the same way I do when I fall for a horse designated by the press or the tote as the fastest horse in the world. I looked around at the mostly empty stands; at the seats stained by bird droppings; the people who never once looked up from their papers during the entire affair; the incessant blinking of the numbers on the tote board; the anonymous winter horses being led to the paddock for the next race. I picked up the Form. I was back. Life goes on.

Saturday Jaunt

- On one hand, Any Given Saturday's win in the Sam F. Davis (heretofore to be known as The Davis), could be seen as nothing special; the headline in BRIS that reads A Saturday jaunt at Tampa pretty much sums it up. He faced an extremely undistinguished field of six opponents, and had a good trip close up behind dueling leaders in moderate fractions. He closed just a bit into a final 2 1/2 furlongs that went in 31.90, which I calculate as around a 25 1/2-second quarter pace. That doesn't knock my socks off, but his final time of 1:44.27 is only about a second and a quarter off the stakes record.

On the other hand, the colt just exudes class to me. It was a totally professional performance, as was, really, his loss to Tiz Wonderful last year. He never saw the rail, taking the two path on the first turn, and was solidly three wide the entire turn for home. He lost some ground to the leader at that point, but he was totally in hand for John Velazquez, just waiting for his cue. And when that came, he galloped away straight and smooth. The Tampa Bay Derby is next.

Not much else to say about the race, except to question how the bettors could have pounded Mott's Monster Drive, a NY-bred facing winners and going beyond six furlongs for the first time, down to 4-1! I suppose that tells you something about the quality of the field.

Ad Hoc Committee Report Due Wednesday

- The Ad Hoc Committee on the Future of Racing will hold a public hearing on Wednesday, February 21 at 11 AM, at which time it will release its Report, which will contain the details of the selection process by which they tabbed Excelsior as their non-binding selection to be the next franchise holder. The meeting will take place in midtown Manhattan and Albany via teleconference.

The long-awaited release of the report comes just 10 1/2 months before the scheduled expiration of NYRA's tenure, and amidst speculation that its findings will be cast aside by the Spitzer Administration. Matt Hegarty, writing in the Daily Racing Form, reports on the possibility that the delays in the process, caused by NYRA's bankruptcy case and the complexity of rewriting the racing law to allow a new franchise holder to take over, could lead to a one year extension of NYRA's tenure.

Oh yeah, remember that thing about changing the racing laws? With all of the drama that has transpired since the Committee made its recommendation last fall, that little detail seems to have gotten lost in the shuffle of administrations and investigations. Making state law more accommodative to successfully running the tracks, or the lack thereof, were the key assumptions upon which the bidders were to base their proposals. Exactly how much they did is one of the things we'll hopefully learn on Wednesday. In any event, are we to believe that something that Albany has not been able to tackle substantively for 20+ years will be resolved in 10 months?

Hegarty (who apparently was less successful than the Daily News' Jerry Bossert in getting Spitzer's office to return phone calls) also reports that the latest delay in NYRA's bankruptcy court date to apply for funding from GE Capital was due to a request by the association so that it could pursue those rumored settlement talks over the land issue. That session is now scheduled for February 22.

It was unclear Friday if NYRA has had any discussions with the state, although NYRA's senior vice president, Bill Nader, said earlier in the week that "we're always open to talking."

Tom Precious reports on Bloodhorse.com that the state has complicated NYRA's funding bid with the governor's proposal, included in his budget, to provide the association with $23 million to get through the rest of the year. Racing industry insiders say the state is trying to strengthen its overall case by including the bailout money for NYRA.

Master Plan?

- Steve Swindal will appear in a Florida traffic court on March 15 on DUI charges stemming from his arrest early Thursday morning. The NY Times reports on Saturday that [George] Steinbrenner had a chance to publicly support Swindal on Friday, but he did not take it.

Steinbrenner’s spokesman, Howard Rubenstein, was asked if Steinbrenner still planned to make Swindal his successor with the Yankees. Rubenstein called back a reporter an hour later and said, “Steve’s counsel has advised us that we should have no comment because this is an ongoing legal matter.”

Hmmm, well, if Swindal isn't going to be running the Yankees, then perhaps he wouldn't be in conflict with Major League Baseball rules regarding the casinos that Excelsior would own, and....

You see? I TOLD you that Bud Selig had a plan!

Friday Night Notes - Feb 16

- I was actually mistaken earlier when I wrote that Any Given Saturday was a closer dependent on a favorable pace scenario, forgetting how close to the front he was in the Kentucky Jockey Club, his last start before Saturday's Sam F. Davis. That was a tough effort against a tough colt in Tiz Wonderful. Any Given Saturday is a $1.1 million son of Distorted Humor, out of an AP Indy mare, and a half-brother to Bohemian Lady, a stakes winner at nine furlongs. His dam is a half to the graded winner Second of June.

He certainly looks every bit the 4-5 morning line favorite that he is. Funny to see Bill Mott ship Monster Drive for Zayat Stables. He's a NY-bred who graduated in December against state-breds at the Big A in his second start, both at six furlongs. This seems like a tall task, and I'd want odds higher than his 5-1 morning line.

If you're looking for a nice priced horse to use with the favorite in exotics (or to upset him altogether), you might want to check out Singapore Swing. This Marylou Whitney-bred is listed at 15-1, partly because he lost by ten lengths late last year in running second to Brisco N Logan (6-1). But that was a different situation; it was a good-sealed track at Calder, and his 400 Tomlinson number indicates that he could like it wet.

Since then, Singapore Swing won over the Tampa track, proving that he can handle a surface that some horses don't. He was three wide around the first turn, grabbed the lead handily in the two path on the final turn, and drew away while mostly hand ridden, as Vernon Bush spent much of the last quarter mile looking behind. He won by six over a hot Tom Albertrani first-timer, with an 80 Beyer which certainly puts him in the hunt for second at least. Singapore Swing is by Fusaichi Pegasus out of a Dixieland Band mare; his second dam is the 1985 Oaks winner Sun and Snow.

- Quick note about the two Santa Anita races I picked the other day. It was wishful thinking that I would feel well enough to make it to the teletheater, and I didn't. The fifth race turned out to be a disaster, with three horses not finishing; one of those was vanned off, and another was Shame on Charlie, Baffert's 3-1 favorite, ugh. I'd written that Quick Vic was a value play at his 10-1 morning line, but not so at 4-1; he finished 5th.

And in the 7th, La Tormenta was dull on the board off a layoff, but she ran the speed off their feet and bottomed out the field. Second place finisher, and my selection, Squeeze Me Tight was, I thought, a great price at 4-1, as Frankel's shipper Keladora got bet down to 3-1 favoritism. I'd bet her again every time in the same situation (preferably with La Tormenta on top in the exacta).

A Crowded Trail This Be

- Seems like anytime a three-year old with prominent connections wins this time of the year, he's mentioned as a candidate for the Derby trail. So when Cobalt Blue won on Wednesday at Santa Anita for owner Merv Griffin, BRIS declared that he had punch[ed] his ticket for the Triple Crown trail. Oh man.

Cobalt Blue won his debut and then ran up the track in the Best Pal against Principle Secret, Great Hunter, and Stormello. He broke a bit slow that day, but not fatally so; he just never ran a step. That was his last race until Wednesday's, and once again, he was a bit slow to get in stride. But this time, he settled into a perfect stalking position behind a blistering pace, and rallied smartly for the win in a brisk 1:09.12. Doug O'Neill's brother Dennis told BRIS that his $325,000 price tag at last year's Ocala sale makes him the most expensive purchase ever for Merv. "He would have gone for a lot more, but he's by Golden Missile, who's not in vogue."

"I told Merv when I bought him that he was a mile and a half horse, and we're not going to win anything early," O'Neill continued. "But we won first time out, and then he kind of fell apart on us at Del Mar.

"But now Doug's got him going right, and he's going to be a really, really important horse."

Perhaps, but he has a long way to go before being a legit contender, and there's not much in his distaff family (he's out of an El Prado mare) to get all excited about. And can't we have a rule that a horse that hasn't won beyond six furlongs at this stage of the game is barred from the Trail until he or she does so?

And how about Stevie Whatshisname? I Googled him and I obviously missed this story from the Form saying that he could be back this spring. (And I also didn't know that Wild Fit died of colic.)

Upon Further Review..

- Thanks to Steve D for enlightening us regarding TVG. I don't know that exclusivity per se is the problem. Those with Dish Network aren't complaining. (I had Dish before switching last spring in anticipation of the Rangers' Stanley Cup run - two days later, Direct TV picked up OLN, and a week later, the Blueshirts were swept out of the playoffs). As Patrick points out over at PHBH, in the NFL, the AFC is basically exclusive to CBS and the NFC to FOX. It goes back to the oft-repeated issue that racing lacks an effective central office and commissioner directing affairs in the best interest of the sport. The NFL would never grant the AFC rights to the Fox Soccer Network (which Nathanson laughingly included in his list of networks that TVG has wider distribution than)

Similarly, in an ideal world, the NTRA would work with the various tracks to ensure wide distribution for all, preferably, as Steve D notes, with scarcer product and staggered post times. In the real world of course, horse racing ain't the NFL, and not enough people care enough to create a demand for HRTV on Direct TV or TVG on Time Warner. That's something an energetic racing commissioner could be working on as well.

Patrick is also looking for some more information on what percentage of bets from various outlets go back to the source track. Nathanson states that TVG returns 14%, claiming that that's more than any other ADW provider. That would be commendable if it's true, but given some of the questionable assertions elsewhere in his column, I'd want to see that for myself.

- Late Scratch provides a likely scenario for Jerry Bossert's story about the governor office denying rumors of NYRA-NY negotiations to extend the franchise. It did seem strange that nobody picked up on or checked out the WRGB story given some excellent coverage we've seen from reporters like James Odato of the Times Union and Tom Precious of the Buffalo News. Hell, I suppose I could have made the same call!

Personally, I don't know if I'm buying the denial. There's a lot of logic in the rumor. The two leading contenders have those troubling political entanglements, and the state has had its chance to contend the land claim in court only to back down. But then again....Logic? In Albany? Upon further review....

- And yes, thanks to Late Scratch and others who inquired about my health. I'm mostly recovered from a brief but intensely nasty bout with the stomach flu. You don't wanna hear anymore. Trust me.

TVG Spinning Out of Control

- It's kinda funny that TVG Senior VP David Nathanson's column defending his network's exclusivity contracts appeared just a couple of days before we learn that their negotiations with Churchill Downs have broken down. Churchill is miffed over TVG's involvement in piping its races to the UK, in competition with a joint venture the company has with Magna, and it doesn't take a genius to see a future for the company's tracks on Magna-owned HRTV. TVG claims that it's strictly a business decision on their part:

“Nearing the end of a 10-year relationship with CDI, we were seeing continued growth in our television distribution and account wagering handle, as CDI continued to divest of racetrack properties, diminishing its importance to our business,” said David Nathanson...in a statement released by his company.

Over the past two years, CDI has sold, or announced pending transactions to sell Hollywood Park, Hoosier Park and Ellis Park. According to the TVG, the share of wagering by its subscribers on CDI’s owned tracks plunged from over 30% of TVG’s total wagering to less than 13%, including wagering on Kentucky Derby day. [Bloodhorse]

Oh c'mon man, don't feed us that fucking crap. TVG is already an endangered species during the winter without Gulfstream, Santa Anita or Oaklawn - so much so that the harness racing from the Meadowlands seems to have become the centerpiece of their broadcasts. What will they do without Fair Grounds and Calder? Sign an exclusive with Freehold and extend Drive Time into the afternoon? And without Churchill Downs itself, the only thing that's diminished is TVG itself. Talk about spin, this stuff is spinning so fast it makes the sulky wheels look stationary.

Nathanson writes in his re-edited Bloodhorse column (original column here via Google cache):

The purpose of exclusivity is not to gain an advantage over ADW competitors (as evidenced by TVG’s sub-licensing wagering rights to multiple ADW providers). The purpose of exclusivity is to secure for racing a viable and financially feasible long-term national television presence, and the resulting marketing benefits.

But of course it's to gain an advantage, specifically with respect to HRTV, with whom it competes for space on cable and satellite, as Nathanson himself acknowledges:

The ability of a programmer to provide exclusive content and high quality production values are prerequisites just to get in the door and absolutely necessary to broaden distribution.

And Nathanson is being just plain dishonest when he writes: TVG currently reaches more than 20 million U.S. homes in all 50 states via all the major cable and satellite providers. Tell that to those in the NYC area that have Time Warner Cable. (And isn't it strange that the purged version of the column contains a more accurate characterization, that it's carried by various cable and satellite providers!)

Of course, it's not TVG's fault that all of the providers don't carry both they and HRTV, and that, therefore, some viewers lose out depending on where they live and which service they subscribe to. We understand that this is business, and that they're not going to give their products away just to make us all happy. But don't talk to us as if we're as ignorant. Leave that for Racing 101.

Spitzer: No NYRA Negotiations

- Jerry Bossert reports in the NY Daily News that a spokesperson for Gov Spitzer "emphatically" denied rumors of negotiations between NYRA and the state to extend the franchise in return for NYRA dropping their land claim. And March 16 is the date on which the state will argue in court that NYRA is not entitled to bankruptcy protection. "We'll prove that they are not eligible for bankruptcy protection...They are an instrument of the state."

Bossert also reports that next Thursday is the court date on which NYRA will apply for a credit line from GE Capital Corp against the land. We may finally get an indication at that time on how the courts will be inclined to rule on the issue on which the entire franchise situation will ultimately be decided.

Hard Spun Needs to Spin Final Quarter

- Hard Spun is slated to go in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on Monday, and Gary West, writing in the Dallas-Ft Worth Star Telegram, notes that he'll have to do better than the final quarter of 26.77 seconds in which he completed the LaComte Stakes.

A big, long-striding colt, Hard Spun just lowers his head and runs, like a fullback at the goal line, and he has been dominant in all four of his races, winning by a total of 28 lengths. If he learns to distribute his energy effectively, learns to control his speed and to recognize that the goal line lies far ahead, he could become one of the major players on the road to the Triple Crown.

If not, he could become this year's Lawyer Ron. A headstrong colt, Lawyer Ron didn't learn to distribute his energy last year. When he won the Southwest, for example, he ran the opening quarter-mile in 23.29 seconds and the final quarter in 26.22.

West also wants us to keep an eye on Fine Flyer, a $900,000 yearling who finished with a rush to be fourth in his debut and who makes the second start of his career Saturday at Santa Anita. Fine Flyer, by the thus far disappointing sire Fusaichi Pegasus, is a half-brother to Keeper Hill, winner of the 1998 Kentucky Oaks; her second dam, Jedina, is a half-sister to Fappiano, and this is the distaff family of Belmont winner Commendable.

- Any Given Sunday, my personal preference amongst Pletcher's Derby prospects, runs in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa on Saturday, prepping for the Tampa Bay Derby there on March 17. This is a route that has not proven to be too successful the last couple of years, specifically for Sun King and Bluegrass Cat, though the latter did finish a distant second to Barbaro last year. We hear that the surface there is a bit quirky (at least from the trainers whose horses don't fare well there, or from Steve Haskin as he makes a case for every three-year old in the country), and with Pletcher intending to use the Polytrack Blue Grass as Any Given Saturday's final prep, he would be coming into the Derby having prepped over disparate surfaces. Pletcher explains:

"The two races at Tampa should be a perfect setup for him for the Blue Grass," he said. "He's already run well over the Polytrack at Keeneland, and I thought it made the most sense to give him his final prep there for the Derby." [Daily Racing Form]

Like Circular Quay, this is a colt who will be at the mercy of pace and racing luck, particularly in the 20 horse Derby field (seems as if we can just assume these days that the field will max out).

Swindal Races to Jail

- Steve Swindal was doing some racing of his own Thursday morning, but not the kind that will help his Excelsior Racing's bid for control of the New York tracks. He was driving 61 MPH in a 35 MPH zone at 2:12 A.M. in St. Petersburg, FL, and had the good sense and timing to cut off a cop car. He refused a Breathalzyer and failed a sobriety test, and was taken to jail. Swindal was booked at 4:26 a.m., was released at 9:53 a.m. on $250 bond and is scheduled to appear in court March 13. [Newsday]

Yankees spokesperson Howard Rubinstein issued a statement which said that "Mr. Swindal apologizes profusely for this distraction during the Yankees' spring training." But he didn't elaborate on exactly what a 52 year old man was doing speeding around drunk (or under the influence of whatever) at 2 in the morning. Swindal did not immediately return a message left on his cell phone. [AP] Gee, that's a surprise!

Too Sick To Blog

- Yes, there is something other than vacations to paradise that can make me not post. Man, I was sick as a dog today, and had to come home from work. I figured I could bet some races, or write some posts, but instead spent the rest of the day in bed. The Head Chef took the laptop from our bedroom with no resistance on my part at all.

I'm supposed to meet a friend at a teletheater after work on Thursday for some early evening simulcasts, and hopefully this will be one of those 24 hour things and I'll be able to do so. But I was too sick to handicap during the day too.

So, feeling a bit better this evening, at least for awhile, I figured I'd do some handicapping and blogging at the same time and take a look at a few of the races I'll hopefully be playing. I only got to two races and now I'm fading again. But here they are anyway.

The fifth at Santa Anita is a maiden sprint for 62.5-55K claimers. Pick Vic ships in from Calder, where he was all over the stretch in finishing second in his debut. Jack Carava takes over training duties, and confidently moves him up from 40K to 62.5K. But that was a fairly strong 40K claimer he comes out of. The winner, Voorhee's Ballad, has raced creditably in open allowance company since them; third place finisher A Shore Thing won his next two, including a 40K starters allowance at Santa Anita after being claimed off a 12 length win by Jeff Mullins. Pick Vic picks up Garrett Gomez, who is 3 for 9 for Carava, shows a solid string of works over the track, and he looks like a value play at his 10-1 morning line.

Shame on Charlie moves back up in class for Baffert after a very good second against 50K company. He broke poorly, rushed up on the inside, was pressured every step of the way through fast fractions, and then proved to be extremely game, getting caught for second just at the end.

Headed for Home drops in for a tag; two back was an even fifth in maiden special weight company, racing a bit erratically in the stretch (looked like he thought about taking a bite out of the horse outside of him), and beaten just about a length by Noble Court, who graduated next time out, and won the G2 San Vicente this past weekend. Forget his last on the turf, but this barn just doesn't win too often.

Meritsndemerits and Oshinsky move up off claims by good first off the claim barns.

I like Pick Vic to win, and I'll box the exacta with he and Shame on Charlie

The seventh at Santa Anita goes on the grass at 6 1/2 furlongs on the downhill course.

Squeeze Me Tight has really taken to the grass, and showed some real handiness in his last, rated back to third after breaking on top from the outside post. It was a confident ride by David Flores, who took her three wide around the turn, and hand rode her most of the way home. A similar trip behind the speed horses can yield a similar result here.

Runaway Cozzene seems to really like the downhill course, with two excellent efforts in as many tries. She won her last, on this course, sprinting to the lead through quick fractions, putting away a talented 6-5 favorite in Sumthingtotalkabt and drawing away handily. She will however face some early pressure from inside and outside.

La Tormenta and Candy Jo come in off big layoffs. La Tormenta, three for four on the grass, defeated Candy Jo in an allowance race last May. But last year, off a similar layoff, she needed her return race and improved as the year went on. Besides, she faces some tough pace pressure starting from the rail, with Runaway Cozzene right outside of her. Candy Jo ran second in a stakes at Hollywood following the abovementioned race, but may be a question mark at this 6 1/2 furlong distance.

Bobby Frankel is always dangerous with foreign shippers, and Keladora showed good form in France, racing in routes. Frankel is two for seven, with four seconds, with foreign shippers cutting back to a sprint over the last two years.

I like Squeeze Me Tight, over Runaway Cozzene and Keladora.

Expansion on the Table in West Virginia

- Efforts are underway once again to bring racinos to the casino-laden state of Michigan, and to add instant racing machines in Virginia. But the endeavor that could have the most far reaching consequences is taking place in West Virginia, a state which already has slots, where racetracks are trying to gain the right to add table games, thus turning them into full-fledged casinos. In fact, West Virginia has had slots for so long now that it's old hat, and is no longer seen as sufficient in light of the ongoing transformation of Pennsylvania into one giant slots parlor with locations on and off track. (A Pennsylvania court ruling has cleared the way for Presque Isle Downs, a new thoroughbred track/racino being built by Penn National in Erie, to open their racino late this month and become the 4th such operation thus far.)

The addition of table games in the state would no doubt increase the calls for the same in Delaware, and could hasten their introduction in Pennsylvania, where many believe it's just a matter of time. As casinos and their accompanying hotels and entertainment centers grow and the revenue increases, the horse racing part will become more and more insignificant financially.

West Virginia track owners have been complaining long and hard about the new competition. Wheeling Island Racetrack and Gaming Center president Robert Marshall, who is particularly concerned about competition from the nearby Meadows Racetrack, slated to open later this year, was threatening to lay off workers a year ago, when Pennsylvania's plans were still on the drawing board. Past legislative efforts have stalled, but now, for the first time, a bill permitting table games has made its way to the floor of the House of Delegates, having passed through its Finance Committee by a vote of 16-9.

During a 4 1/2-hour committee meeting, committee members rejected 10 of 11 amendments offered to the bill. Those included one to require a statewide constitutional amendment to allow table games, and several to increase the state “tax” on revenues from table games.

Afterward, one of the leading House opponents to the bill (HB2718) was pessimistic about prospects to defeat it in the full House. [West Virginia Gazette]

Proponents claim that a constitutional amendment is not necessary because voters authorized gambling in a 1984 referendum that legalized lotteries. "We were amending the constitution to allow games of chance,'' said Delegate John Doyle, D-Jefferson and a lawmaker that year. [Wheeling News Register] But opponents feel that that's absurd. “Let these delegates go back and tell their constituents they believed they were voting for Las Vegas-style table games instead of a lottery,” [Delegate Kelli] Sobonya said. This editorial writer contends that it's just plain unconstitutional:

The state was prohibited from even conducting a lottery until a constitutional amendment was passed more than 22 years ago. It said, in part, “the Legislature may authorize lotteries which are regulated, controlled, owned and operated by the State of West Virginia in the manner provided by general law … .” Lobbyists and other proponents of HB 2718 have been convincing legislators one by one that casinos are just an extension of this amendment.

Hogwash. Did the people in 1984 think they were giving the green light to have table games at race tracks? Absolutely not. Table games are not the same as buying a lottery ticket. On the floor of these would-be casinos, the regulation, control, ownership and operation of these games would effectively not be done by the State of West Virginia, as the 1984 constitutional amendment requires. [Bluefield Daily Telegraph]

But even if the bill passes the House, and later the Senate in its present form, track operators will not be happy with the 35% tax rate on table game revenues. They were trying to hold the line at 24%, and Wheeling Island's Marshall argued before the committee vote that the higher rate would make the effort not worth his while.

Marshall, however, doesn’t see any expansion ahead with a 35 percent tax rate on table gambling. He claims his track’s effective tax rate would be 41 percent to 43 percent when the $2.5 million annual licensing fee is factored in.

“Even if the Legislature decides to permit table gaming, we would be forced to significantly reduce any plans for expansion if they set the rate of taxation higher than 24 percent. ... We simply will not be able to afford to provide more jobs and growth to this area without table gaming at 24 percent,” he said.

But by the time the bill got out of the committee, proponents actually had to fend off proposals to make the tax even higher than 35%!

“It’s called a gamble, but I think it’s a good idea to increase our take and see how much they scream,” Delegate Craig Blair, R-Berkeley, said of increasing taxes and fees on the racetracks.

Yeah, and why not? Because it's sure not about the racetracks or the horses or the horsemen; it's all about the revenue to fill the budget shortfalls. Sure, there are those in slots-less states such as Maryland and Massachusetts who are genuinely interested in saving the local industry by leveling the playing field with other states. But as racinos turn to casinos and expand to stand-alone locations and it all spirals out of racing's control, the sport itself, now just a cost of doing business, will become more of a nuisance to casino owners. And as time goes on, and casinos become part of the landscape, chances are, whether it takes 2 years, or 5, or 20, that we'll start to read from one state or another about casino owners questioning why they still have to subsidize a racing operation that contributes only a fraction of the bottom line (if it makes money at all). Either that, or casino gambling finally reaches a saturation point, and the bubble bursts. Either way, if the racing industry doesn't have a plan to survive on its own, its future could be as bleak as the Chester Downs slots parlor on a Monday at 8 A.M. (oh man, picture that).

- Furthermore, it seems to me that if these states ever add sports betting and legal brothels, then why the hell would anyone go to Vegas anymore? (Though it is, for now, the only place you can see Prince. And you could hang out with Walter.)

Tuesday Night Notes

- Premium Tap is slated to run in Saudi Arabia this weekend in preparation for the Breeders Cup. The Saratogian's Jeff Scott, laments the probable loss to interests overseas of another attractive stallion prospect, this one from the Ribot line, with bloodlines considered unfashionable in North America.

Unfortunately, the Ribot line is in severe decline, the victim of aspects of a commercialized breeding industry that have, according to Thoroughbred Times bloodstock editor John Sparkman, "combined to strangle out almost everything else, even a line as great as Ribot's." Last year, for example, only one percent of the 21,000-plus foals born in Kentucky were tail-male descendants of Ribot.

Despite dwindling numbers, Ribot-line runners have continued to excel at the highest levels of the sport. The World Thoroughbred Rankings rated Premium Tap and David Junior (another son of Pleasant Tap, who unfortunately has been exported to Japan) among the 10 best older horses in the world in 2006. Another Ribot-line runner, Nobiz Like Shobiz, is one of the favorites for this year's Kentucky Derby.
....
Perhaps someone would realize that people with the sport's best interests in mind may one day wish at least a few of the best broodmares from this era had been bred to stallions not descending from Mr. Prospector, Storm Cat or A.P. Indy.

-It is now dinner time! (For strong stomachs only.) (Hat tip to Albany Law School Racing and Gaming Today.)

- Alan Shuback reports in the Form that the Racing Post reports that Discreet Cat may report to the World Cup without a prep.

Meanwhile, tickets for the event are selling at an astonishing rate, according to the website Gulfnews.com.

All corporate hospitality and dining packages for the Dubai World Cup have now sold out.

However, tickets for the International Village are still available.

Safiya Burnell, Head of Marketing and Sales, said: "The Dubai World Cup is now firmly established as the leading social and sporting occasion in the region.
....
It is set to be one of the greatest races ever witnessed at the famous Nad Al Sheba track, with Discreet Cat and Invasor - officially ranked the two best horses in the world - likely to run.

I still have my doubts. Things like this just don't happen in our sport, do they? (And if they do, they take place thousands of miles away, and beyond the view of those without TVG/HRTV, a local simulcast outlet, or an online account with access to the feed. Do you think a network, say, ESPN, will pick it up?

Forget One Step At a Time

- Buffalo Man Takes Another Step Toward Triple Crown in OBS Championship [Bloodhorse]

One small step for (Buffalo) man, one helluva giant leap to racing glory!

Notes - Feb 13

- I must admit that I have a hard time taking Big A winter inner track stakes seriously when it comes to the Classics, so please excuse me if I'm not jumping up and down over the 106 Beyer awarded to Summer Doldrums for his stakes record mile and a sixteenth in 1:42.23 in winning the Whirlaway on Saturday, and defeating 2-5 Lawrence the Roman (more on him below). But those who bet the "all others" in the futures pool at 5-2 must be very excited!

- Mike Watchmaker, in the Form, writes that there's really no appeal in knocking a colt like Notional, who, since getting blinkers, has now won two graded stakes this year in clear-cut fashion. And then he goes ahead and does so anyway.

Even though he broke from an outside post in the Risen Star and was between horses much of the way, he really had a perfect trip. Notional got a strong early pace to rally into, and had only the limited Zanjero to run down in the stretch. And with all of that going for him, Notional still did not run as fast as the filly Appealing Zophie did winning the Silverbulletday Stakes the race before, although the much slower early fractions in the Silverbulletday make final time comparisons between it and the Risen Star a bit tricky. The bottom line with Notional, however, is that the 92 Beyer Speed Figure he got in the Risen Star, and the 94 he earned winning last month's San Rafael, just aren't good enough for him to be considered a more serious Derby threat.

I love when writers present a fact in trying to make a point ("Notional still did not run as fast as the filly Appealing Zophie"), and then, in the very same sentence, explain why it's not really relevant ("..the much slower early fractions in the Silverbulletday make final time comparisons between it and the Risen Star a bit tricky."). In addition, one of the many things I've learned from my readers over the last couple of years is that fillies can be more developed than the colts at this stage of the game.

I also wouldn't exactly call Notional's race a perfect trip, considering how wide he was going into the first turn. And what makes Zanjero "limited?" Because he ran second to Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Remsen (with Summer Doldrums far far behind)? His main limitation in this race is that he circled the field 5-6 wide in a premature move to the front.

Having said that, Watchmaker makes a valid point about his relatively meager Beyers. However, as Walter pointed out, it's no mean feat these days for a California Derby hopeful to win outside of the state. And I thought he showed a lot of professionalism the way he surged through an opening after Albarado had to search for an opening in midstretch.

- Must be a case of seller's remorse.

Second Stringers

- I wanted to take a look at some of the second and third tier Derby hopefuls....ones that people perhaps actually got some value on if they bet them in the futures pool. I'm not going to go off any more about the ridiculous underlays - I'll let Walter sacrifice his blood pressure to that cause. Though I must add here that it's not like I don't think any of those horses can win - I happen to really like Any Given Saturday, and would have bet a few bucks on him myself at his real fair value - which is certainly a lot closer to 41-1 than his closing odds of 14-1. I don't know if it was the Steve Klein article that Walter mentioned or just the Pletcher effect, but those were surprisingly low odds to be sure.

So I thought I'd check out the blogosphere for some ideas, and I saw that Patrick over at Pulling Hair and Betting Horses put a couple of bucks on Zanjero and Adore the Gold. Patrick is still bragging about having Barbaro in Pool 1 at 19-1 last year. As I've said, bragging rights for a Derby winner never expire. (For example, in 1980, not only did I love Genuine Risk as much as I've liked any Derby selection in my life, but I also correctly deduced that she would be higher odds on track at Churchill than at NY OTB [ah....the days of separate betting pools], and placed the bet at track odds with Duffy, my pslightly pseudo-nym for the amiable bookie/pot dealer who plied his trade(s) openly on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange [to clerks, like myself, and brokers alike, I might add.] She paid $28.60 at Churchill, and if I'm remembering correctly, a lot closer to 5-1 here.) (Oh, and I had the exacta with Rumbo too.)

Anyway, Patrick says, of Zanjero:

The race was slow and marred by an accident, but 56-1 for a horse that is probably a lock to get into the gates if he wants to I think is a little high. He has a better pedigree than my other choice as he is a half to Victory Lap, and from the same female family as Awesome Again and Macho Uno, so the ingredients are there. He's now lost to Notional and Nobiz like Showbiz (not too bad), has a win over the Churchill strip and is in the competent hands of Steve Assmussen, 56-1 seems a little high.

Zanjero was dead last along with Circular Quay passing the stands the first time, and made a huge, and probably premature move with Castellano, sweeping the field four wide and even wider turning for home. (Sorry for all the parenthesis tonight, but this was a great call by John Dooley at this point of the race. He noted that Notional was "in hand" and asked "where is Circular Quay going to go?" just before the spill.)

Zanjero was the leader at the eighth pole, but tired from his efforts and was collared by Notional, who saved more ground turning for home, and he just got nailed for second by Imawildandcrazyguy.

What I'd like to add is Asmussen's pre-race comments in the Form, which I had reported in this post:

Asmussen said he believes Fair Grounds's tight turns might not be ideal for Zanjero. Moreover, Zanjero hasn't started since he finished second to Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Remsen Stakes on Nov. 25 at Aqueduct, and his training pattern during a wet New Orleans winter has not been perfect.

Based on that, you'd think that Asmussen would be happy with the effort, but after the race he told the New Orleans Times Picayune: "For him to get to where he was at the eighth pole, I was a little disappointed...I'm not going to say he wasn't ready when (Appealing) Zophie [parenthesis not mine] runs like that off the same works."

Still, it was a pretty solid effort, and he didn't have things nearly as easy as (Appealing) Zophie did. Hmmm, 56-1?? I think Patrick has a pretty solid wager here.

Suebroux at Post Parade also put a deuce down on Adore the Gold, but more on sentiment, which is generally a worthy enough reason in itself at 33-1.

Adore the Gold reminds me of one of my favorite horses, Afleet Alex. The humble beginnings of Delaware races - he even broke his maiden with Jeremy Rose on board. The tragic story behind this colt: The death of breeder Dan Mallory in the Comair crash last summer. And as it turns out, Mallory had been on his way to [Sue's hometown] Lone Star Park when he was killed. Spooky. Granted, the Swale has never provided a Derby winner, but at 38-1, I decided to put a couple of bucks on a first time.

Adore the Gold has won from six furlongs to a mile and a sixteenth, and has shown more early speed in his last couple of starts. He was hard pressed to a 44.69 half mile by Zito's Forefathers, but those two drew away from Pletcher's 3-2 favorite Cowtown Cat in the Swale with Adore the Gold prevailing. As Patrick mentioned, his sire, Formal Gold, was very fast; and he also had endurance, winning the Woodward, Donn, and Iselin. Adore the Gold is out of a mare by the graded winner Screen King, sixth (of only ten) in the 1979 Derby won by Spectacular Bid. He's probably not my style as far as Derby horses go, but he has speed, a quality which may come in handy this year, especially if horses such as Dreaming of Anna, EZ Warrior, and Exhale don't go.

Let's do one more this evening - Belgravia, a Mr. Greeley colt who went for $2 million to Smith/Tabor/Magnier at last February's Fasig Tipton two-year old in training sale. He's trained by Patrick Biancone, who seems to lay low this time of year, sticking to Santa Anita and spotting his horses selectively. He's only started 16 runners there this meeting, and has a record of 16-2-5-3.

This colt won at first asking (at 6-5, surprise), and then proceeded directly to the G3 Hollywood Prevue, where he defeated Notional by three lengths on the artificial surface. Then, he ran in the G1 Hollywood Futurity, and looking back at my post after the race, I recall how grand he looked on the track before the race. He got caught a full four wide from the ten post. It looked like he might back out of it approaching the far turn, but, after Leparoux deftly saved some ground there, he swung out and rallied a bit greenly to get 4th, just 1 1/2 back of the game Stormello. And remember, that was a slow pace that day - 47 3/5 to the half - and they came home rather quickly, in 30.53 for the last 2 1/2 furlongs.

Belgravia is out of a mare by Stalwart, who won the Hollywood Futurity himself, and suebroux may be interested to know that this is the distaff family of Afleet Alex - his second dam, Dorothy Gaylord, is the third dam of the 2005 three-year old champ. There's a lot to like about him, and can't you picture Leparoux in the winner's circle there? But I'd have to say that his 29-1 closing line in Pool 1 has to be considered borderline, at best, especially considering that he's never started on a non-synthetic dirt track.

Notes - Feb 12

- Street Sense continued his leisurely preparation for the Derby trail with a five furlong work in 1:03.40 on Monday morning at Palm Meadows (just barely quicker than Highland Cat's 1:03.86 at Belmont). The first of what will be just two preps including the Blue Grass has not yet been determined. The skeptics are lining up, but the Lexington Herald-Leader's Maryjean Wall points out that Nafzger has always had his own ideas of how to train horses, and that he's proud of the major races he won when all the armchair quarterbacks thought his methods bizarre.

The classic Nafzger moment was his preparation of Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled for winning the 1990 Breeders' Cup Classic, then worth $3 million, run at 11/4 miles on dirt.

Nafzger brought Unbridled to the race off a trio of unorthodox races: a sprint, followed by a race on turf, then back to the dirt for the Super Derby, which was an off-road event in those years.

Street Sense closed at 10-1 in the Derby futures pool, making him the second choice amongst individual entries; Nobiz Like Shobiz was 8-1. Hard Spun is a slightly higher 10-1, and he's followed by three Pletcher horses, Ravel (11-1), Circular Quay (12-1), and Any Given Saturday (14-1). As Walter said, don't even get me started on how ridiculous this stuff is.

Except regarding Circular Quay. As I surmised, he is much lower than Notional, who won the Risen Star and is listed at 27-1. Those odds on Notional are easily, in my opinion, the biggest relative overlay amongst horses that have run this year. Pletcher's colt got bet based on what bettors surmised as to what he might have done had he not been taken up at the top of the stretch. And they may be right. He saved significant ground compared to the winner, and one can certainly speculate that he would have been much closer at the end. However, given his dead closer style and the 20 horse field he would have to weave his way through, his fair value probably wouldn't be much less than 12-1 come Derby day even if he wins his next two preps (unless he proves himself to be far, far better than most of us thinks he is).

New Dutrow Suspension a Bad Joke

- Richard Dutrow, just back from a seven day suspension, is heading back to the sidelines - supposedly - for another 14 days for having contact with his barn during his highly publicized 60 day suspension in 2005, the year during which he trained the eventual Horse of the Year Saint Liam. Given the fact that these suspensions really require little else of these trainers, who merely have their horses campaign under their assistants' names, a violation such as this is really a slap in the face of the regulating authorities. Off the top of my head, I'd say that the suspension should be at least as long as the original one, given that he didn't comply with its most basic terms.