Showcase Day

- Happy New York Showcase Day!

In the 5th, the Maid of the Mist for 2 yo fillies, Sneakin Up (3-1) ships in again from Monmouth for trainer Joe Pierce. This daughter of Hook and Ladder has adopted a deep closing style since adding blinkers - unusual - and jockey Carlos Marquez Jr. Her win in the Joe A Gimma (not a licensed plumber either, but a former chairman of the state racing commission) is worth checking out. You're not supposed to be a million wide on the turn at Belmont, and still be able to come home in 12.48 and sweep by the field like she did. Whether or not she'll get sufficient pace in this race remains to be seen, but hard for me to look past her off that race and the stretchout to a mile. Solid half mile work for this too. Our Golden Dream (12-1) showed talent on the grass in her debut for Tom Bush, and tries dirt after floundering on the yielding turf of the G3 Miss Grillo; an ambitious placing there. Daughter of Medaglia d'Oro is a half-sister to Icabad Crane.

Sorry to throw another morning line favorite at you, but Rollers (3-1), a classy $500,000 son of Stormy Atlantic, returns to state-bred company in the 6th, the Hudson Handicap, after polishing off a solid graded stakes competitor in Desert Key at Philly Park for trainer Barclay Tagg. Ferocious Fires (9-2) takes a similar drop after competing well himself in the G1 Forego after a stumble at the start. This strapping chestnut son of Lite the Fuse is three for three at the distance, and trainer Anthony Dutrow is on another of his ridiculous streaks - two in a row at Belmont, and 4-3-1 with his last ten runners here. Dutrow also starts Premium Wine, and it looks like his pair may have worked together on 10/12 with Ferocious Fires getting the edge. I'll try an exacta box with the latter and Rollers.

In the 7th, the Ticonderoga, Nehantic Kat (6-1) returns off a brief freshening, and has shown some solid improvement at the age of five for the Tagg barn. Tough luck against several of these in her last, at Saratoga, when she was shuffled back to last and rallied against the pace grain for 4th, getting the final quarter in 22 seconds. Some concern that she always seems to get herself in trouble; but looks live at a fair price in a great betting contest.

Trainer George Weaver has sure cooled off since those heady days of July and August when he could do little wrong; he's 1 for 24 at this Belmont meeting. In the 9th, the Mohawk Handicap, his My Man Lars (8-1) takes another shot at Banrock (2-1) and Classic Pack (6-1), who he's finished just behind in his last two at this state-bred stakes level. This gelded son of End of the Road (Strawberry Road) has stepped up big time for Weaver at age five. He was four wide into the first turn in the Ashley Cole, and found himself going head to head with Banrock turning for home, still wide, after that one had cruised to the half on the lead in 52 seconds flat. So perfectly understandable that he weakened just slightly at the end after giving Banrock all he could handle in the stretch. Gets the rail, highly advantageous at this route with the short run to the first turn, and seems capable of turning the tables with a little racing luck. But I certainly wouldn't completely ignore the morning line favorite, seeking his 4th in a row for Tom Bush and jockey Kent Desormeaux. Best of luck, especially if you're going after the Pick Six carryover, and have a great day.

- And here's a pick from Santa Anita from DiscreetCat:

Santa Anita - Race 7

#4 All Too Solid (15/1 ml)

First-time starter for Guillot (23% for a huge flat-bet profit in that category) comes in off a heads-up gate drill with E M Squared on Oct 5. That one came out of that drill to win his debut down the hill last week, and wouldn't you know it, All Too Solid debuts down the hill as well. Also of note is that Guillot/Southern Equine's go-to rider Michael Baze gets the call. Remember that Baze flew to New York to ride a winner for these connections just a few weeks ago. Looks live here at a price.

Bond Concerns

- An official in the NY State Comptroller's office tells Bloomberg, of the state's plan to collect an upfront fee and then issue $250 million in bonds to finance the Aqueduct racino: "It is unusual to get one-shot revenue, and then incur a long-term liability."

The planned bond sale would continue the state's practice of borrowing for capital projects without an adequate planning process, [assistant director of budget policy Andrea] Miller at the comptroller's office said.

"We don't do a good job prioritizing our capital spending," she said. "Economic development such as the Aqueduct project is certainly very important," though it needs to be evaluated in a process that considers all the state's needs. [Bloomberg]

Also noted is the fact that the state has postponed $652.4 million of debt sales this year because of unfavorable conditions in the municipal bond market.

Just a couple of weeks after developer Louis Cappelli, who is also depending on a bond sale ($400 million worth), said that the "game plan remains intact and on schedule" for the new Concord racino and entertainment complex, much of the financing remains up in the air amid the global lending crises, Sullivan County Industrial Development Agency officials said this week.

"They are in a bit of redesign process, which results from a need to scale back the grandeur of the project to cut costs," attorney Walter Garigliano told the IDA board on Tuesday.
.....
Garigliano told the IDA board it could be some time before financing closes, while also indicating volatility in the financial markets could affect bond interest rates. [Record Online]

Ouch

- During a campaign stop in Maryland (yes, he's running again), Ralph Nader said NO to slots.

"We oppose it because gambling is a sign of moral and economic decay.....Its benefits have been always exaggerated and its negatives have been under-emphasized."
.....
Mr. Nader views the slots referendum as a taxpayer subsidy for the racing industry that also hurts the poor, breeds corruption and ignores other the crucial needs in the state. [Hometownannapolis.com]

Yeah, well, who asked him anyway? However, Nader is certainly not alone in wondering why the racing industry should be subsidized. In his Raw Fisher blog on the Washington Post website, columnist Marc Fisher, noting that the industry generates just 0.2 percent of Maryland's economy, writes:

If the state is so eager to tap into our collective desire to bet on sports, why not choose a sport that's actually popular? How about legalizing gambling on pro football rather than pretending that Americans under the age of 60 are miraculously going to become interested in horse racing?

Yo, ouch man, that's harsh! Well then, how about the concept of legalizing gambling on pro football at racetracks? I know (though this columnist doesn't seem to) that the legal obstacles are huge in the states not exempted from the federal prohibition on sports betting. But, as long as he brought it up, the concept is worth discussing. Besides being a far more wholesome form of degenerate gambling behavior than slots, it's the kind that might very well provide the kind of synergy that is clearly lacking at racinos. It's my belief that sports betting could juice up interest and business at the tracks if presented correctly and creatively, and help energize a sport which, whether the columnist cares for it or not, is a treasured part of the fabric of Maryland history, and one which provides - or, has provided, anyway - gainful and fulfilling employment for thousands of its residents.

- Fellow blogger John found an interview that Tommy Thompson did with the WSJ, and when John says that Thompson is clueless, he's certainly not kidding.

- Interesting profile of Governor Paterson in New York Magazine.

- I'll be doing the honors on the TBA blog over at Bloodhorse.com starting this weekend and through next week leading up to the Breeders' Cup, so I'll likely do the bulk of my intrepid analyses of next weekend's races over there, with help from other members of the TBA. You can download a complete list of the pre-entries (pdf file) right here, or here (not pdf).

No Love For Governor's Choice

- More on Aqueduct in the local Queens Chronicle this week; and the free weekly reports that the community has a clear preference: anything but Delaware North.

“We believe that both of the other proposals offer more to the state over the long term,” said Community Board 10 Chairwoman Betty Braton.

We also hear from the other, aggrieved bidders. SL Green spokesperson Bob Bellafiore says that it has offered to invest $130 million to improve the Aqueduct facility, which brings its total up-front spending to $380 million. (That would be in addition to the $250 million the state plans to raise in a bond offering; and as a reader pointed out the other day, good luck with that. The Metropolitan Transportation Authority even hired former NYC Mayor Ed Koch to do some radio ads for a planned bond offering this week, and it had to be postponed.) Capital Play pointed out that their plan would generate $6 billion more over 30 years; that's $200 million per year.

GOP State Senator Serph Maltese, who received a key union endorsement in his desperate battle against the Democratic Councilman Joseph Addabbo Jr. (in a district in which enrolled Democrats outnumber Republicans by far over 2-1), is getting his two cents in too. He told another local paper, the Queens Gazette, that's he's "worked closely" with the community board, and that "Delaware North has all along been nearly everyone's third choice."

It's pretty amazing to me that I really haven't heard a single good word from virtually anyone for Delaware North, have you? I mean, I've gotten a lot of informed-sounding comments on this site from readers, some who have apparently had experience with them at Finger Lakes and other properties, and I only recall one who thought Del North had a good plan. And, as has also been pointed out by readers, we haven't heard a single direct word from Governor Paterson. You'd think he would respond and defend his choice.

Senate Minority (But Hopes To Be Majority) Leader Malcolm Smith criticized Skelos for opposing the Governor's, and Sheldon Silver's, selection, and opined that Skelos' action could result in a lawsuit because Skelos sought more information from one bidder, but not the others. I don't know if SL Green and Capital Play would have the legal basis for a lawsuit, nor who the appropriate target would be if they did. But I imagine that those bidders will want to know why Delaware North was permitted to have what sounds like a do-over in response to the reservations we're seeing the community express. Why doesn't SL Green or Capital Play, who have already satisfied the community, get a chance to respond to the reservations that the state has expressed, and raise their upfront payment offer?

King of the Portfolio

- I'm actually making money in one of my investments, and, not surprisingly, it has nothing to do with the securities market. Rather, it's my share in Kasey K Racing Stable. Actually, I guess I'm always ahead as long as it has a horse standing since the stake was gifted to me. Nonetheless, King Mobay ($26) became the 9th winner of the year for the outfit, pretty impressive indeed! And, in picking up the winner's share of $21,600, he became another claim that has at least earned back his tag. The horse lost his last two by a combined 25 lengths, and had been 0 for 5 on the grass, and believe me, I would have said something here if I thought he had a shot. Bob said he cleaned up, but I think he always bets his horses the same. He certainly has a good eye for them, and he may just get me hooked on these Thorograph sheets one of these days.

Real obscure breeding for King Mobay - he's by King of the Hunt, a Seattle Slew stallion (a full brother to General Challenge) standing in New Mexico for $2000; out of Raise a Champion, an unraced son of Raise A Native.

King Mobay was the 7th winner, from 19 starters, for trainer Bruce Brown, who is winning at a 25% rate since he started out on his own early this year. He's also seven for his last 13, including winners at the Meadowlands and Mountaineer.

- Speaking of the NTRA Safety and Integrity Alliance, Steve Crist told John Scheinman of the Washington Post:

"I don't think people are saying, 'I'm not going to play the horses until the NTRA comes out with a seven-point plan."

And therein I think lies the problem, or at least one of them, with the NTRA's notion that bettors will gravitate towards tracks who follow the suggested guidelines. Unfortunately, I don't believe that most horseplayers, when deciding which tracks to bet, are really considering whether there's a safety rail, whether penalties are uniform with other states, if the track is reporting their injuries or even conducting efficient testing. They want good races they can bet on for the most part. NTRA and the industry have really been thrown for a loop by the aftermath of Eight Belles, the big fuss over the steroids administered to Big Brown, and the political grandstanding on Capital Hill.

Not that the NTRA isn't addressing important issues here. I'm not quite as cynical as John; I think that NTRA does care about success, even if there is a certain amount of posturing to Washington and the PETA contingent involved in this case. But they've certainly spent a lot of time and effort on devising guidelines that they are unable to enforce, and which don't figure to play much of a role in growing the TV ratings or handle.

Hunch Bets for Thursday, Oct 16

Rockin' Joe 6th at Keeneland
Blowout 4th at The Meadowlands
Alaska Trip 2nd at Golden Gate
Move Aside 8th at Hoosier
All Bets Down 9th at Keeneland
Love You Not 2nd at Laurel
Out Of Autumn 6th at Louisiana Downs
Mad Wife 9th at Louisiana Downs
Shafted 1st at Woodbine
Positive Cash Flow 8th at Hoo.....oh, can't find anything for this, nevermind...

NTRA Initiative is Sort Of, Part Of....

- The NTRA announced its new Safety and Integrity Alliance, the latest attempt to impose some kind of uniformity to the industry's efforts in....well, safety and integrity. You can read the entire initiative here [pdf document]. And yes, it does call for the out of competition testing for EPO's that John Sabini was so hesitant about the other day.

In fact, all of the rules and regulations proposed seem worthy. Problem is of course that NTRA has no real means to enforce the regulations it proposes.

Alex Waldrop, the chief executive of the NTRA, said that benefits from the certification program will be "market-driven," contending that racetracks that comply with the program will draw a larger share of wagering dollars than those that do not. He acknowledged, however, that the NTRA - a marketing and lobbying organization that draws the bulk of its funding from tracks and horsemen's organization - has no power to enforce the rules.

"The market will determine that it's valuable to be accredited," Waldrop said. "We can't make them do it. But if they don't they're out of the alliance." [DRF]

Ah, the "marketplace" approach. We've seen how well that's been working out of late. Whatsmore, NTRA has selected Tommy Thompson, the Republican former governor of Wisconsin, secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services for the W. Administration, and, briefly, candidate for President of the United States. Hopefully, Thompson is recovered from the case of brainlock he developed during the latter, when he told a Jewish group that earning money is "sort of part of the Jewish tradition."

Thompson also said during one of the GOP presidential debates that it's OK for an employer opposed to homosexuality to fire a gay worker. Later, he explained that he misunderstood the question, and that he wasn't feeling very well.

"I've been very sick. ... I was very sick the day of the debate. I had all of the problems with the flu and bronchitis that you have, including running to the bathroom. I was just hanging on. I could not wait until the debate got off so I could go to the bathroom."

Oh man. Well, this should be good for a few yuks if nothing else.

[UPDATE: More on Thompson over at Not to the Swift.]

Getting Better All The Time

- When Big Brown was retired earlier this week, with Curlin still uncertain at the time, and amidst all of the uncertainty in the wake of the financial crisis and the turbulent year for the sport, the Breeders' Cup Classic moved into low expectations of Governor Tinafelyin proportions. At that point, you figured that if some horses showed up, nobody broke down (not a certainty given the four fatal injuries on the Pro-Ride surface thus far), somebody actually won, and we got a couple of winks out of Jeannine Edwards, than it would be considered a success.

However, as you know, Curlin is in, after his fine workout, and as announced by Jess Jackson during his rather bizarre press conference the other day.

And now, just as Prime Minister Gordon Brown helped to lift the markets - well, for a day and a half anyway - here come the Brits to help save the day. Aidan O'Brian will send both Duke of Marmalade and Henrythenavigator for the race. I'll let the inimitable Chris McGrath pick up the story from there.

In the United States, the racing public remains deflated by the cruel end to their hopes of a showdown between Big Brown and the older champion, Curlin. To the European audience, however, this stand-off between two horses from the same stable is every bit as intriguing.

True, a season of relentless achievement for Ballydoyle has seemed to take its toll this autumn, and both these colts have shed the aura of invincibility they shared in high summer. Duke Of Marmalade's spree of five consecutive Group One wins came to an end in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, when he could finish only seventh to Zarkava, while Henrythenavigator has been beaten in his last two starts, most recently by Raven's Pass, himself a candidate for the Classic.

Henrythenavigator must also prove his stamina for the extra two furlongs at Santa Anita, while a new surface also raises a question for both colts. At the same time it is the switch from dirt to a synthetic track, for the first time ever, that has made the gamble imperative for their owners at Coolmore Stud. John Magnier and his partners know that the stallion careers of both will be immune to failure, at the end of a gruelling campaign. Conversely, the potential dividends are enormous should either crown their careers with a new peak in the Americans' backyard. In effect, it is a bet to nothing. No wonder Magnier and O'Brien have resolved to double the stakes. [Guardian UK]

Well, hate to bring this up, but that sounds similar to the way that George Washington's ill-fated Classic sojourn was framed last year. So here's hoping that things work out a hell of a lot better. In any event, and despite the disappointing recent performances of each, this certainly adds some more intrigue to what is turning out to be a pretty interesting affair despite it all.

Skelos and Del North Talk it Out

- Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos' spokesperson John McArdle, who I guess is the resident spokesperson for whomever the GOP Senate Majority Leader is, called Tuesday's meeting between the Senator and Delaware North "very productive." Skelos, who was accompanied by Del North lobbyist Patricia Lynch and developer Don Peebles, traveled to Buffalo for the meeting.....though don't think for a moment that the trip was purely for state business. He also took the opportunity to campaign for GOP State Senate candidate Michael Ranzenhofer, who is locked in a tight race with Democrat "Baby" Joe Mesi, the former heavyweight boxer, in another absolutely crucial swing race that will help to determine control of the chamber. Another one of those mixed state business/politics trips, and I forgot, who pays for those now in the wake of Troopergate? The Aqueduct racino is tied up with this election in many ways to be sure.

"We didn't put politics in the middle of this," McArdle said, "but there was an endorsement the day before the governor announced his selection. I find it ironic that people say we're playing politics, when it was just the opposite." [Associated Press]

Del North president William Bissett, who no doubt presented Senator Skelos with his suddenly-enhanced plan, said: "We were very encouraged with the meeting."

Skelos told the company executives to now work with community leaders in Queens to get them to better understand their plan for the site. As for a decision timetable, McArdle said that will depend on the company’s success in getting backing in Queens. [Buffalo News]

Skelos can soon drop by Community Board 10 to see how that's going, and make a campaign stop for Senator Maltese at the same time.

I reminded you guys a few days ago that Delaware North's lobbying team includes people close to Speaker Sheldon Silver. Forgot to mention as well that Patricia Lynch's team also includes David Brand, described as one of Gov. David Paterson's closest friends. Senator Skelos surely must not be feeling the love here, and one can understand his frustration on several levels.

Banned In NY

- NY State Racing and Wagering Board Chairman John Sabini announced the steroid ban on Tuesday at a press conference at its Manhattan offices; with the press consisting of a reporter from the AP, and me. It was right around the block, and seemed like a novel way to spend lunch hour. Karen Matthews, the AP reporter, brought a photographer too. He was snapping away at Sabini and Charles Hayward, made sure to get the latter's name and title, but I don't see any photos in the AP piece in any of the many outlets in which it appears. So his efforts seem to have gone for naught; hope he doesn't feel too bad.

I'll refer you to Ms. Matthews' report, since it covers most of the key points and quotes. The new rules, which will start on Jan 1, do permit the use of four specific steroids, but only one at a time, and at trace levels at which, according to Sabini's written statement, "veterinarians are in agreement....would not be enough to affect a horse's performance." In addition, a horse may exceed the proscribed limits for one drug at a time for therapeutic purposes, and would have to prove to be back in compliance with the maximum levels in order to get off the vet's list. Those of you who want to get all the technical details can see the new rule here.

Of course, nobody has ever really been able to say just how, or even if, steroids enhance horses' performances. This article from the AP last June is a good summary of that debate. Steroids are often said to help maintain appetite and a good coat; and to be of general help in training. There's apparently no indication that they can help a horse run faster and longer in a specific race, as blood doping and milkshaking are said to do. However, as a vet noted in the AP article linked to above: "You give it because you think they may improve their overall performance and keep them at the top of their game." I suppose that does qualify as performance enhancing in a more general sense.

I go back to two articles from the summer which I found pretty fascinating in combination - one in which trainer Bruce Levine claimed that "basically there is no difference in the performance of the horses after taking them off steroids,” which he says he did on Jan 1. But in the other, posted online the day before, he said that Bustin Stones was not doing well; that he "stopped eating and he lost some color." Bustin Stones was recently retired due to a foot injury.

Now, despite the obvious apparent connection there, I'm of course not claiming that Bustin Stones' problems were due to him going off steroids. Indeed, I don't even know if he was on them in the first place, and he was in excellent form as late as the Carter in April. However, based on what we read about steroids, it's a plausible scenario that a horse taken off steroids would suffer the problems that Levine described. That being the case, and say for argument's sake that, if not Bustin Stones, there are and have been horses in that situation, then one could argue that steroids are indeed performance enhancing in the most literal and basic sense - that is, permitting them to perform at all.

Though on the other hand, a perfectly sensible person might argue that, lacking any evidence that steroids cause the animal any harm - and I don't know that there is - they help keep good horses like, speculatively, Bustin Stones, on the track. But we'll leave that debate to another forum, because the steroid ban is simply a no-brainer at this point in time, at least in my mind. Steroids may or may not be the most pernicious drug in use, and may not be harmful at all. But it's the buzzword these days for cheating in sports. And with the year the sport has had in terms of its image, banning them is an easy and essential way to help regain integrity in the eyes of the betting public. They need to go in every state.

Nothing comes easily in New York as we know, so Chairman Sabini deserves due credit for getting this done. But there's certainly more to do. I asked him if there was anything in the works regarding out-of-competition testing for EPO's, and the answer was no. We've seen those tests in New Jersey and Canada, and at the recent Red Mile harness meeting as well - an exercise which produced several positives. Sabini instead touted the progress made against milkshaking, and Hayward chimed in with statistics from NYRA's testing showing how levels how decreased, and citing, as he has before, the fact that certain trainers have largely disappeared. NYRA and the state deserve full credit there too.

However, as Board member John Simoni said in the press release: "A diet of hay, oats and water should be our goal as we move towards a racing industry that is drug-free." That will require the state, and the industry as a whole, to be ready to adapt, just as the cheaters do. Banning steroids is only the start, and there's no reason why New York shouldn't take the lead.

OK Third for Rap Tale

- A decent third for Rap Tale at the Meadowlands on Tuesday. She saved ground, started to make a little move approaching the final turn, but didn't make much progress there; not particularly agile around the bends is she. She finished OK in a one-paced effort to get the show spot, earning $4920, bringing her purse earnings to $63,000 since the claim in May. Though, as this reader pointed out, that barely covers the monthly bills in New York, unlike the Kasey K horses stabled at Philly Park, where the day rates are significantly less. (On the other hand, as Sunny Jim pointed out, Just Zip It has more than paid her bills finishing mostly in the money in inflated-purse NY-bred allowance and stakes races).

Bob's breeding guy thinks that, between her pedigree and her long stride, we should be looking for marathons of a mile and a quarter or more for Rap Tale. He thinks she could just outlast the competition. She's by Tale of the Cat, out of a Pleasant Tap mare, and has mucho distance influence on her distaff side. Seems worth a shot; though I'm obviously not objective, I think there's some talent there if we can find a niche for her, so perhaps that's it. And she's only three after all, and certainly has room for improvement.

- FOX is one game away in each league from their least preferred World Series matchup. Phils-Rays could be a good matchup, but a ratings nightmare for the network. Gee, too bad about that.

Del North Plan Gets Bigger

- Delaware North hopes to take their case directly to Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos. (Skeptical Skelos, I was going to write, but it's a bit too cutesy for my taste). No doubt in reaction to the reaction to its selection, Delaware North says that its plans are more ambitious than people think. That's probably because those extra ambitions are not spelled out in their proposal.

Delaware North officials said Monday that while the company submitted no additional plans, it intends to ultimately build a "world-class, four-star conference center and hotel facility."

In June, the firm hired The Peebles Corp., said to be the country's largest African-American real estate development company specializing in urban redevelopment.

Chairman and CEO Donahue Peebles said he is designing plans that would include a 3,000-seat theater for concerts and boxing. There would also be a 60,000-square-foot conference and meeting facility with a ballroom, a 5,000-square-foot spa and a 2,000-space garage.

In addition, Peebles said, there would be 15,000 square feet of "boutique retail" along the entrance to the racino - with more once the hotel is built. [NY Daily News]

This is a far cry from their original announcement last spring, when nothing more than a "large parking deck" was in the plans. The article linked to above claims that some 20,000 people are expected to visit the racino daily; and it's not an exaggeration to point out that that's around ten times a normal weekday racing crowd. Hope they're saving some space for the flea market.

- Seems as if Delaware North was merely following instructions. Looking back at an account of the submission of the bids last May, company president William Bissett told the Times Union that state officials encouraged Delaware North to focus on the up-front fee, rather than long-term return. There's some forward-thinking for you. Delaware North must have been either the only company who listened, or the only one who got that advice.

Tuesday Morning Notes

- Rap Tale is, at 6-1, the longest shot on the board in the third race at the Meadowlands today. I suppose she's earned that dubious distinction on merit, given both her recent performances and speed figures, as well as the way we've ambitiously placed her of late. She's back on the dirt where she's won three in a row; however, the 63 Beyer earned at Philly while coming home in harness horse time doesn't inspire confidence.

But the excuses are that she didn't at all handle the track at Philly and was outmatched in the grass stakes. Trainer Bruce Brown was extremely pleased with her most recent work, a five furlong move in 1:01 3/5. It's a chance for redemption, and I'll put a few bucks on her; but I certainly can't objectively select her here against a pretty decent field. My Fair El (7-2) has an outstanding recent record on fast tracks, which she will definitely have today, and has been sharp off layoffs for Dutrow. She's won at this level, and is eligible courtesy of her $32,000 optional claiming tag. Pissarro (3-1) has never been worse than second, in six starts, for trainer Richard Small; and Poovey (5-2) has never been so in her last eight starts, the last four while climbing the class ladder for Bruce Levine.

- The Rangers beat the Devils 4-1 last night and improved their record to 5-0, matching the best start in franchise history. But it came on a day of almost inconceivable tragedy.

Not Great

- Big Brown will go to stud, for something around 50-75K, I'd guess. I'd be surprised if even these guys have the temerity to ask for more than that, given the son of Boundary's incomplete resume and woeful feet. The colt's injury does not sound career threatening in itself, but I suppose the history of his fragile hooves makes retirement the appropriate course of action.

What IEAH is missing out on in my opinion is the chance for their horse to be called 'great.' It's a designation he could possibly have earned even in defeat had he faced the world's best in the Classic. Lacking that however, I think he's stuck on 'talented.' OK, 'extremely talented' if you will. And throw in 'enigmatic.' Or 'mercurial.' His bad post wins in the Florida and Kentucky Derbies hinted at greatness, even if the competition has turned out to be less than spectacular. But his Belmont flame-out was maddening, his Haskell win determined but decidedly unspectacular, his Monmouth Stakes victory merely a tease over a surface over which he was not intended to compete upon again. He leaves with far more questions than answers, and that's not the stuff of racing immortality, other than to forever wonder how good he could have been....or not.

Similarly, I don't believe that Big Brown can now earn Horse of the Year, even if Curlin runs poorly. And I think he's the three-year old champ, even if Casino Drive should win the Classic (though that would be an arguable point).

The rest of us are obviously missing out on what would have been the most intriguing matchup on the Breeders' Cup card. The prospect of Big Brown and Curlin finally meeting has provided most of the limited amount of excitement around this year's Breeders' Cup....at least regarding the races on Saturday. The Filly Friday concept just looks worse and worse every day, don't it?

However, having recovered from the initial shock, it's true, the Classic could still be an intriguing race in that it presents a new and fresh challenge for the reigning Horse of the Year. You may be as skeptical as I regarding the true worth of Go Between, and the others who have run strictly out west. But there's no question that Go Between is a formidable horse on the California synthetic circuit who presents a worthy challenge for Curlin, trying fake dirt for the first time.

And then there's Casino Drive....and, though he certainly adds some intrigue, no, I'm still not buying it.

Oh, Crap....

- Anyone still excited about the Classic?

Paterson-Skelos Rift Heating Up

- Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos' opposition to Governor Paterson's selection of Delaware North is not due to his anger over the governor's involvement in the Senate races, nor an attempt to put slots at Belmont back in play; but rather, he's simply listening to the Queens community, where leaders prefer a destination venue with hotels and a major brand, not just a video slots parlor in a box. That is, at least, according to "people close to Skelos," as reported today on the Times Union's Capitol Confidential blog.

However, Fred Dicker reports in the NY Post that Skelos is privately describing Gov. Paterson as a double-crossing liar, claiming that Paterson personally assured him that he would not involve himself in the election. And the growing animosity between the two was on display at the public budget meeting on October 3.

Of course, Paterson's folks aren't taking that accusation lying down.

But aides to Paterson claim it was Skelos (R-Nassau) who went back on his promise to work with Paterson - especially on the state's worsening fiscal situation - and, as a result, they say the governor now wants to see the Democrats take control of the Senate for the first time since 1965.
....
...Paterson has told friends that he finds Skelos - unlike the recently retired Bruno - almost impossible to deal with.

"I think David initially thought he could work better with Dean than with [Minority Leader Malcolm Smith], but that's no longer the case," said a source close to Paterson. [NY Post]

There's supposed to be some kind of unwritten "understanding" that the sitting governor does not intercede in the legislative elections. Spitzer unrepentantly cast that notion to the wind. Paterson had been more coy about his intentions, especially when his buddy Bruno was still around. But he's clearly taken off the gloves now. The governor has been raising money for Democratic Senate candidates, transferring money to those in pivotal swing races, and endorsing specific candidates. As mentioned previously, he endorsed Joseph Addabbo Jr., the NYC Councilman running against GOP incumbent Serph Maltese in the district that includes Aqueduct (Maltese has expressed reservations about the Delaware North bid).

And on Friday, Paterson, for the first time in one of the contested Senate races against a sitting GOP Senator, personally attended a fundraiser; this for Rick Dollinger, who he has described as a personal friend. Coming on the same day as the Delaware North announcement, this certainly could not have pleased Skelos.

Paterson said he would personally swear Dollinger back in to the Senate and said, “It would be the most exciting experience if he came back and that this election brought the Senate Democrats in the majority.” [Politics on the Hudson]

Late last month, Dollinger was rated 11 points behind Republican incumbent - and one-time Democrat - Joe Robach in the Siena College poll.

- Delaware North President William J. Bissett says that, contrary to what has been reported, its Big A bid includes more than just slots in a box.

The other developments would be undertaken once the casino succeeds.

“We’ve always viewed this project as one of staged development,” he said.
.....
..Bissett said nothing guarantees that competitors actually will build the hotel, retail and entertainment space. And he questioned the estimates of revenue that the state would receive over 30 years.

“We’ve gone in a very conservative fashion so the state can rely on the numbers we project,” he said. [Buffalo News]

Monday Morning Notes - Oct 13

- Cowboy Cal became the fifth Derby horse to win his next race when he was moved up to first via DQ in the G3 Bryan Station at Keeneland. Seaspeak, widest of all on the turn, came in and bumped Cowboy Cal lightly three times or so on his way to a narrow hard fought win. I imagine that none of the bumps by themselves would have caused a disqualification, and that it was the persistent nature of them that led to the decision. Still, Cowboy Cal seemed to give as good as he got in the bumping, had the lead inside the sixteenth pole despite everything, and Seaspeak was able to battle back late. I think it was a borderline call.

Cowboy Cal could make his next start in the Hollywood Derby (G1) on November 30 and the McNairs will keep him in training as a four-year-old. [Thoroughbred Times]

For Pletcher, who we mentioned was lagging at Belmont, it was just his second win of the Keeneland meeting, out of 18 starters. The Toddster had an absolutely miserable day at Keeneland on Saturday, with Splash of Color (9th at 8-5); Frame of Reference (12th at 3-1); and Understatement (11th at 3-1) - oh man! But the Bryan Station was his 21st graded stakes win of the year. Long ways from the 57 he won in 2006, but not too shabby still.

Seaspeak has never run poorly in his five career starts, all on grass. He was 12-1 off a third place finish in a key allowance race (four subsequent winners). He's by Mizzen Mast (Cozzene), out of a Gone West mare who's a half sister to the Grade 1 grass winners Cetewayo and Dynaforce.

- Casino Drive absolutely toyed with the allowance field that he faced on Sunday. Three wide or more for the entire turn for home, man, he was just cruisin.' Victor Espinoza got a bit busy at the end to hold off Dakota Phone, but the overall ease with which he won was rather startling considering his inexperience, layoff, travel, quarantine, etc., etc., I still believe however that the notion of him winning the Classic is ridiculous, and that it wouldn't be a good thing for the sport in this country in any way. So I expect to be both betting and rooting extra against him in the big race.

Sunday Notes

- Shug took the 5th at Belmont on Saturday with first-time starter Rescue Squad ($18.60) on the turf; certainly an apropos hunch bet in these uncertain times. It's also his 4th debut winner this year, coming after a long slump in that category - some 27 months - that I'd documented many times here. The percentages will even out in the long run, and I imagine that Bill Mott will start popping them with regularity again someday (he got his first one in one year at Arlington last month, but hasn't had one in NY since 9/2/07).

The Mott barn has shown some signs of life at Belmont with a recent run of 12-3-3-2, and starts the debut runner Sheikh's Serenade (7-2) in today's second race. This Live Oak homebred is by Unbridled's Song out of the BC Sprint winner Desert Stormer (Storm Cat); and she's a half to the graded stakes winner Sahara Gold. She figures to be second choice to Elusive Heat (5-2), the McLaughlin (47-9-4-3)-trained daughter of Xtra Heat who makes her long awaited debut after being scratched at Saratoga.

Back to Shug's colt, Rescue Squad got a ground saving trip from Edgar Prado; though it should be noted that he was in amongst a crowd, and showed a lot of maturity for a two year old first-timer. Had a bit of trouble in the stretch too when he got carried out, and had to battle back inside of the Toddster's favored Hype to get the win. Impressive effort. This is a son of Dynaformer, out of a Seeking the Gold mare; he's a half to Criminologist (third in the Athenia). This is also the family of Shug's Distaff (I just can't bring myself...) hopeful Carriage Trail - they have the same second dams, and their first dams are full sisters.

After coming alive at Saratoga, Pletcher has fallen back to the doldrums in which he's spent a good portion of this New York racing year. His current record at Belmont is 37-4-6-6. His most recent winner here was Sea Chanter, and I was surprised to notice that she's a Darley filly. Never noticed Pletcher training for the Sheikh before. Further research however shows that the filly had previously run for Stonerside, which explains the odd pairing. Guess the Toddster came along with the package.

Rap Tale turns up in the 7th at the Meadowlands on Tuesday afternoon. She's back on the dirt, and with all the original excitement over trying her on the grass, the fact is that she's won the last three times she's been on the dirt; and four of the last five. And as "bad" as her last win, the race at Philly Park, looked visually and figure-wise, interesting to note that the third and 4th place finishers in that race have come back to win.

Big A Dispute Tinged with Lobbyists and Politics (what else is new?)

- Speaker Sheldon Silver and the Assembly Democrats stand with Governor Paterson in favor of Delaware North's selection to run the Aqueduct racino.

"We support the governor's choice," said Sisa Moyo, spokeswoman for the Assembly speaker. "We understand there are some community concerns, and we will work with the governor to encourage all parties to work together to address the concerns." [Associated Press]

It's worth recalling at this point that, as noted here in the past, Delaware North's lobbying efforts have been led by Patricia Lynch, and that Ms. Lynch is a former top staff member of Speaker Silver, for whom she worked for eight years. And that Ms. Lynch's team includes Brian Meara, also a former key aide to the Assembly Speaker.

While I did, in the last post, question the motives of the Senate Republicans in light of the Senate elections, it is a cold fact, as we saw in the Queens Chronicle article last week, that the community is extremely unhappy with Delaware North, which, as opposed to the other bidders, has made no effort whatsoever to engage and involve it in their plans. And, as a commenter noted, Democratic Assemblywoman Audrey Pheffer, is not pleased either.

"I'm disappointed. They were not my first choice, or my second choice,'' she said. She said the other bidders offered more "pizzazz''.

"We don't want just a fancy OTB parlor,'' she said. [Albany Times Union]

So, for whatever reason, the GOP is raising legitimate concerns regarding both the local issues and the lack of any vision beyond the inflated downpayment that has apparently won the day for Delaware North. However, why the Republicans didn't raise these specific and worthy objections until after the governor made his selection, I don't really know. That lends credence to the notion that they didn't have the matter on their radar screens at all until Paterson's endorsement of Addabbo in the Senate race. But whatever the motive, they're on the right side of the issue here in my opinion.

Here's Seante Majority Leader Dean Skelos' statement on the matter, and thanks to another reader for that. A spokesperson from the governor's office replied:

"It is shocking that Senator Skelos, who claims to understand the importance of this revenue stream and who has repeatedly and publicly called on the governor to award this contract, has now decided to stall a significant economic development project."

I'm wondering if this will all lead to the matter of slots at Belmont being brought back into the picture. Skelos is a strong proponent, and Silver has been the man mostly responsible for blocking it. Perhaps we'll see just how badly the Speaker wants to see his friends' client prevail.

Gambling Taking Hit Too

- I looked at the front page headline in the Times on Saturday, which reads: RICH NATIONS PUSHING JOINT RESCUE; G.M. AND CHRYSLER EXPLORE MERGER - and thought that it's the type of headline that - 50, 100 years from now - people may be looking back at in wonderment, seeing it in a look weathered by whatever the digital equivalent of yellowed newspaper print turns out to be. I would call the current situation 'fascinating' if I knew for sure that it was going to turn out alright. The latest rescue plan, that to inject capital directly into banks in return for ownership stakes, was one of the concepts added to Henry Paulson's original three page (!) plan by Congressional Democrats over the staunch objections of the Bush administration. And as much as I support the Dems, and with all due respect to the gentlemen to be mentioned forthwith, how reassured can we all feel if the Treasury Secretary is now taking his cues from Barney Frank and Chris Dodd in his effort to save the world from depression? Huh?

The problems of horse racing, and the gambling industry as a whole, seem insignificant by comparison of course; but life goes on. As you might have seen, overall handle declined by 10% in the quarter ending Sept 30. Keeneland was down an eye-catching 21% for its first four days. Yowee. Atlantic City casinos posted the biggest monthly decline since gambling started there in 1978.

And yes, even the previously immune Pennsylvania slots industry is finally feeling the effects of the uncertainty.

Revenues from the state’s slot machines fell 15 percent in September. Profits dropped from $156 million to $133 million last month, after a $5 million increase from July to August, according to numbers released by the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board.

Last year, revenues decreased by less than two percent during the same period.

Gaming industry expert Eugene Martin Christiansen, CEO of Christiansen Capital Advisors, LLC, said he hopes these numbers will end the “old nonsense idea” that the gambling industry is recession-proof...In fact, Christiansen said that no other leisure industry has been hit as hard as gaming in the past few months. “Casinos are being slaughtered by these economic conditions,” he said. [Biz Journals]

Yonkers' racino must be in its own little world given the gains that we saw last week; I'd have to call it an outlier, and can't imagine that it won't soon succumb as well.