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Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Tuesday Morning Notes

- Rap Tale is, at 6-1, the longest shot on the board in the third race at the Meadowlands today. I suppose she's earned that dubious distinction on merit, given both her recent performances and speed figures, as well as the way we've ambitiously placed her of late. She's back on the dirt where she's won three in a row; however, the 63 Beyer earned at Philly while coming home in harness horse time doesn't inspire confidence.

But the excuses are that she didn't at all handle the track at Philly and was outmatched in the grass stakes. Trainer Bruce Brown was extremely pleased with her most recent work, a five furlong move in 1:01 3/5. It's a chance for redemption, and I'll put a few bucks on her; but I certainly can't objectively select her here against a pretty decent field. My Fair El (7-2) has an outstanding recent record on fast tracks, which she will definitely have today, and has been sharp off layoffs for Dutrow. She's won at this level, and is eligible courtesy of her $32,000 optional claiming tag. Pissarro (3-1) has never been worse than second, in six starts, for trainer Richard Small; and Poovey (5-2) has never been so in her last eight starts, the last four while climbing the class ladder for Bruce Levine.

- The Rangers beat the Devils 4-1 last night and improved their record to 5-0, matching the best start in franchise history. But it came on a day of almost inconceivable tragedy.

11 Comments:

Anonymous said...

From Sunny Jim in Jersey

Alan - This gets back to what we were talking about the other day with Just Zip It. Three of the other five trainers in Rap Tale's race are out-of-towners. If any one of them scratches his horse, then Rap Tale gets a check, even if she runs no faster than an Amish cart horse. The $41,000 purse is nothing to sneeze at.

Of course, the object is to try to set your horse up to win, but if she can manage to beat a couple of horses, how is this not a win-win situation? You are taking advantage of the fact that the Jersey tracks for whatever reason cannot fill their race cards. In fact, you could continue to do this for the next month, until the track closes on Nov. 14.

Cheers, and good luck.

Anonymous said...

from Juan Syringe
if Rap Tale can find a way to win can u enter her in the breeders cup classic. duhhhhhhhhhh

Anonymous said...

Juan Syringe,

Didn't anybody tell you you need a college degree to comment on this blog?

Anonymous said...

Sunny, I agree in theory, and believe me I have tried, but you need to win races to make money in this game.

The horses run infrequently, so you are just treading water, at best, by placing horses in tough but short fields where they can earn an easy check.

They are living creatures, and sooner or later they get hurt or go off form, need to run them where they belong when they are right.

Also being living creatures, many, but not all, get discouraged by constantly getting their arses kicked, another reason to place them wisely.

If you have nowhere else to run, sure, but to pay to ship to face a tough field will eat you up in the long run.

Now I am sure she will win, did my best Alan.

Anonymous said...

From Sunny Jim in Jersey

Anon -

Thanks, interesting response and your points well taken. I have known people with ownership shares in harness horses running at places like Freehold and Monticello, where purses can be as low as $2,000. It's all but impossible for horses to even earn their keep under those circumstances and I question even why these tracks have existed into this century.

But a $41,000 purse is another matter. Last week, Just Zip It scratched out of a $65,000 filly/mare sprint race, which ended up with just five horses after scratches. A 2x allowance horse took second, one which Just Zip It's numbers certainly matched up with.

I threw out the program from that day, but if memory serves and I'm not mistaken, Just Zip It has won just once all year, but has hit the board in the majority of her races and in doing so has earned something like $140,000. Just Zip It seems none the worse for wear and seems to run her heart out at every asking.

Would you not call that a successful venture? My buddy from Monticello sure would!

Cheers.

Anonymous said...

Rap Tale belongs in a 3000 claiming race over at Penn

rattttttttttttt

alan said...

>>Rap Tale belongs in a 3000 claiming race over at Penn

Rap Tale earned $4920 for finishing third today - that brings her purse earnings to $63,000 since we claimed her for $25,000 in May. Certainly fair to criticize for overreaching at times, but if all claims turned out to be such rattttttttttts, this would be a pretty ez game, doncha think, genius boy?

Anonymous said...

gee Alan did you bet to show on your Rat Tale, almost got even money. genius boyyyyyyyyyyy

Glimmerglass said...

Did anyone read the Paulick blog from today's Jackson/Curlin announcement? The odd remarks from Jess regarding his conspiracy theory of Rags to Riches and Hard Spun (out to get Curlin) is out of a Dick Francis novel.

Anonymous said...

Alan I was at the the meadowlands today, were you that fat guy with the grey /black hair in the paddock?
the horse ran fair picked up some tired horses for 3rd but needs a drop back to claimers if she is ever to win again.

Anonymous said...

Sunny, didnt see that one, fair retort.

The following, and any of my prior comments, are are not specific to Alan's horses but meant for general discussion.

Many commenters here are insiders, some are not and might appreciate the financial reality of race horse ownership.

Right now it cost appx $3500-4000 per month to keep a horse at NYRA.

So even a third in the 65k spot is doing little more than paying the bills, when you subtract trainer/jockey fees.

ei. 65k * 10% = 6500 less 25% trainer, jock, & NYRA fees = $4875.

Just been my experience that for every second place finish there will be a clunker that will offset it.

You only make real money with wins, which is why you see most claiming trainers placing horses aggressively.

These assets are living critters and can depreciate quickly, need to capitalize when they are good.