All Systems Go For Cali Chrome....But We've Heard That Song Before!

 - OK, well, it's a busy week between work, and the Rangers, and the Dinosaur Jr show last night. So I'm gonna be a bit lazy here and reprint this post, which originally appeared on the TimeformUS blog on Saturday:

The big news on California Chrome from Friday is that he encountered a possum on the track while training.  He was apparently undaunted, and continued on his merry way. Must have been a particularly slow news day.  I see those damn critters in my backyard in Queens; even hanging out on the back porch one evening.  So I don't see what the big deal is; I can run away from them just fine too, and I don't make the Daily Racing Form website USA Today.

His assistant trainer, Alan Sherman, is really talking his horse up, telling us how California Chrome seems to be thriving despite the Triple Crown grind.

"He's a good-feeling, big, strong horse. He's just improved all the time....Most horses get a little tired during this three-race trip, but he just seems to be getting bigger, and stronger and better every day."

Oh. Wait.  Sorry, that wasn't Sherman.  That was Barclay Tagg talking about Funny Cide before he went for the Triple Crown sweep in 2003.  He finished third.  Well, OK, maybe there's no Empire Maker in this year's field.  Or, maybe there is.  Point is that trainers say what they say before these races, and these comments probably should be taken with a grain of salt. Even as good as the horse seems to be looking, and as supremely confident Sherman is.

"As good as he came out of the Preakness, I was shocked.....And he's showing me signs that he can be going forward. I don't see any signs of him starting to tail off."

Oh. Sorry again. That's not Sherman either.  That was John Servis talking about Smarty Jones prior to his attempt at sweeping in 2004. He looked pretty good around mid-stretch.  But Birdstone came along and caught him; he finished second.  Yeah, maybe his jockey Stewart Elliot moved him too soon that day.  California Chrome will have the more experienced Victor Espinoza on board.  You know, the guy who spoke about how he nearly had a panic attack and moved his horse too soon when he saw Social Inclusion moving on the turn of the Preakness.  I'm sure that won't happen in the Belmont, right? After all, we've seen that experienced riders don't make that mistake on Big Sandy. Just like Kent Desormeaux on Real Quiet in 1998.

But now it's 2014.  It's been 36 years.  We're due.  What could go wrong this time?  And besides.....man, California Chrome is doing fantastic!

"I can't believe that I'm training a horse that looks this good and has done what he's done....There is no way in the world that there is any horse that is doing better.....He just looks unbelievable."

"It's a done deal."

Oh.  Damn.  Sorry again.  That was Rick Dutrow talking about Big Brown prior to the Belmont in 2008. He didn't finish the race.  Of course, Art Sherman isn't Rick Dutrow. We presume he'll have Cali Chrome's shoes glued on real tight.  So I guess it's in the bag. Right, babe?

NYRA's Chief Experience Officer Has Work to Do

NYRA has hired a 'Chief Experience Officer,' and for an organization that was supposed to be watching its payroll, it sure has a lot of Chiefs.  There's the Chief Executive Officer, the Chief Compliance Officer, the Chief Financial Officer, the Chief Information Officer, and now this.  (And of course there's the plain old Chief, though he seems to have stayed down at Gulfstream for now.)  As well as a new General Counsel whose hiring was also announced yesterday.

The new "CXO" is one Lynn LaRocca, a former Sr VP (of which there are a lot at NYRA too) of marketing at Modell's who has no experience in racing.

 As senior vice president and CXO, LaRocca will be responsible for all aspects of the relationship between NYRA and its guests, both current and future. She will oversee NYRA programs that serve on-premise, off-track and on-line guests as well as developing partnerships with those in the racing industry, sponsors, corporate and governmental entities and service providers. NYRA's sales, marketing, event planning, guest services, customer relations management and communications departments will be under her purveyance.

In the hiring of LaRocca, NYRA joins the health-care industry and several other customer-centric organizations in bringing in a CXO who will use new technologies and analytics to understand what guests want and then meeting, and exceeding, those needs. [NYRA Press Release]

Funny that the hiring should come at this time, because I haven't been particularly happy with my recent X-perience at Belmont.  And it's not as much that there's been no wireless in the Belmont backyard for at least the last two weeks - fortunately for me, my iPad is equipped with cellular service, so I could deal with that - as the fact that the much-touted "hospitality" at the track has been rather non-existent.  That has been the buzzword for CEO Chris Kay.  And I did note here that there were many smiling faces available to direct and assist customers at the Wood Memorial at the Big A.

However, on Saturday, and then again on Monday, I searched far and wide for somebody to report the wireless issue to, and, with the exception of a woman at the information/binoculars stand who reacted blankly to my query, came up totally empty.  I walked all around the backyard area - nothing.  Inside the grandstand - nobody.  All around the clubhouse, nope. In a place that was supposed to now be so hospitable, I was feeling rather neglected.  Finally, on Monday, I sent a Tweet to @TheNYRA handle, and later got a response that: "2 of 4 backyard access points were down for maintenance, but will be back on soon. Sorry for the inconvenience!"

So Ms. LaRocca may want to put aside, for now, her new technologies and analytics and just put some boots on the ground to help fulfill the commitment to customer service about which Mr. Kay has spoken so forcefully since he came aboard....and not just on big racing days. Because there was little of it that I could see over the weekend.

On the positive side though, been meaning to mention that the closure of the grandstand that seemed so ominous over the winter has not come to pass in any meaningful way that I can see.  Sure, there is less grandstand seating available, but the seats are open, contrary to what we'd read.  And there seems to be plenty of it for all but one day out of the season, on which the rest of the plant will magically come back to life for the day.  Concessions are closed on the upper floors, but open on the ground level.  And there are betting machines available throughout.  So I'm not really sure what the fuss was about.  Don't know if they changed their plans, or if the fuss was just people like me overreacting to an announcement that wasn't really very clear in the first place about what we would find.  One thing is for sure however - it costs more to get into Belmont, and one gets less in return. Including, at least this past weekend, customer service.

Churchill Boycott Gathers Steam

Handle at Churchill Downs is down rather substantially since Derby weekend; that according to figures released the other day by HANA, which has spearheaded the boycott over the rise in takeout rates there.  

 The Horseplayers Association of North America reports spring meet handle compared with last year is down 6.4% to $284,568,040 at Churchill. That figure represents a $1.4 million decline per race day. The HANA figures can't readily be compared with track figures because other than big race days, Churchill Downs does not release handle figures. The track does release handle figures to the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission. [Bloodhorse]

 I saw some notes on Twitter yesterday that Thursday's handle was off some 38% from the comparable day last year.

I find myself reporting these numbers with glee, even though I was initially unmoved by the call to boycott over the takeout rates.  And even now, my issue with Churchill is really more over their general corporate dickheadedness than their raising their prices.  Corporations have every right to do so, and consumers have every right to resist those increases.  I'm strictly a value guy when it comes to evaluating races for wagering, and I just figure that if the takeout rates cause races at a particular track to generally lack value, then I'll be 'boycotting' it organically anyway.  (One of the problems with a boycott such as this is that it doesn't allow the order of events that horseplayers warn of - lower churn to lower revenue to lower purses to smaller fields - to play out naturally, thus depriving them of pure smoking gun evidence to back up their claims.)

So I tweaked HANA on Twitter over the boycott at first, not because I was at all opposed to it, but because, as well-intentioned as I've always acknowledged they are, those guys just bemuse me from time to time and I like to give them the business.  As I've noted before, the horseplayers' organization is quick to take action when they feel as if their wallets are being directly threatened.  But when it comes to those hot button issues of safety and drugs that we hear them speak so passionately about, they are strictly talk.  I don't recall, for example, any calls to boycott Aqueduct when horses were dying at an alarming rate; or to refrain from betting Tampa when there were questions about their enforcement of medication rules against certain trainers.  And we've mentioned how their racetrack ratings do not take those factors into account.

But perhaps I quibble.  And anyway, in light of the subsequent stories about Churchill's poor hospitality and mistreating a disabled former jockey and, especially, their refusal - until compelled to do so - to devote resources to basic needs at the Fair Grounds racetrack, my enthusiasm - and participation - in the boycott has increased.  I think that what really put me over the top was when I read of some empty Churchill Downs suit commenting with respect to the drainage problems at Fair Grounds that were causing inordinate numbers of grass races to be switched to the main track: "Well they all train on dirt, they should be able to run on dirt."  So yeah, screw you guys too.  Unlike in California, where racing officials at least acknowledged the boycott over their takeout rates and installed a low-takeout Pick Five in response, Churchill has arrogantly turned up its noses and hoped that the boycott will just go away.  Perhaps the handle figures will attract their attention.  I know it will once it flows down to the bottom line in a material way.

 - A business group in East Greenbush, NY has come out in favor of the proposed Saratoga harness/Churchill Downs casino there.  

 “As a local small business, I know The Casino at East Greenbush would increase foot traffic to both of our shops. This kind of project doesn’t come around very often, and it has real potential to boost local businesses like mine,” said Scott Bendett, Owner of Habana Premium Cigar Shoppe. [Capitol Confidential]

 Oh man.  Somebody is sure pulling the wool over Scott Bendett's eyes if he thinks that people are going to leave the casino to walk to his cigar store.  Maybe he should visit Ozone Park and ask the store owners on Rockaway Boulevard (other than the pawn shops) how business is going for them.  I would surely imagine that fine cigars will be available for purchase on the grounds at The Casino at East Greenbush gift shops.  And perhaps given away to their best customers too.

 - I still can't believe that the Rangers lost that game last night.  Those are the games that really hurt; the ones when your team is clearly the better one, but somehow manages to wind up on the losing end.  Happens in hockey I think more than in any other sport.  That what makes it so "slippery," as Emile Francis used to say.  I fully expect the result to be different in Game 4 on Sunday.  Think we should kill them.  (Though I said that before Game 4 of the Pittsburgh series too.)

Gaming Commission Changes the Rules on Local Approval

The NYS Gaming Commission has issued a clarification regarding the requirement of local approval by the host communities of a casino.

"The identities of the potential gaming facility applicants have now been established. Accordingly, the board believes that for a host municipality resolution to be sufficient, such resolution should indicate support for the specific gaming facility within the jurisdiction of the host municipality.
.......
For the guidance of bidders, we have provided a specific “resolved clause” which would meet the Host Municipality support requirement....

NOW THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED, that in furtherance of the above goals, Municipality X herby [sic] agrees to the location of Gaming Facility Y at premises within Municipality X.

As of today, the Board has received 23 Host Municipality Resolutions; only three (the Village of Johnson City; the Town and Village of Liberty; and the Town of Wawarsing)are acceptable as consistent with the standards contained within this Guidance.

Uh oh.  That is sure to send some of the bidders back to the drawing board, at least with respect to meeting this requirement.  That includes the proposed facility by Saratoga harness and Churchill Downs in East Greenbush.  The vote for that casino took place under shady circumstances, before the project had been announced publicly.  That will give East Greenbush residents who oppose a casino - of which there is an organized group - a chance to have their say.  Presumably, anyway.

Hilariously, this rather major "clarification" comes just after the deadline for applicants to request the return of their $1 million application fee.  Nice going there.  Two companies did submit timely requests to have their money returned.  One of them was Pinnacle Entertainment, which was interested in partnering with David Flaum to operate the E23 project in Albany.  However, Flaum announced last week that the Chickasaw Nation in Oklahoma would be the operator of that facility.  The two defections leaves a Kentucky Derby-sized field of 20.

Also worth noting that this new rule is sure to touch off a frantic flurry of local lobbying efforts by the bidders to have their host communities pass the required language of Gaming Facility Y at premises within Municipality X.  We, the public, however won't be party to the details of who is lobbying who, and at what expense.  That is due to the previously reported loophole in the law which exempts such disclosure in towns, hamlets, or communities with populations of less than 50,000.  All but one of the bidders would qualify for that exclusion.  So, nice going there, again.

 - Greenetrack CEO Luther Winn Jr visited the site of his proposed casino in New Windsor, in Orange County, near the Stewart International Airport (67 miles from the Empire State Building).  He was accompanied by former US Senator Alfonse D'Amato, whose lobbying firm is representing the company.  D'Amato is apparently not bothered by the allegations by shareholders that Winn has misused company funds to pay for personal vacations and cars.  (I wrote more about Greenetrack earlier this year in this post.)

 - A Saratoga Casino and Raceway executive had some really kind words for the city that hosts his racino.  Skip Carlson, a VP of something-or-other, told the Washington County Board of Supervisors:

“If the city of Saratoga Springs had embraced this project, they would have benefited — as the host community — $5.7 million....Does anybody know how much the city of Saratoga Springs now will receive? Zero. The City Council passed a resolution against us becoming a commercial casino ... and I think they sent a message that Saratoga’s closed for business.”  [Saratoga Wire]

I'll keep in mind that Saratoga is closed for business when I'm up at the races this summer.

 - The plans have been unveiled for a casino at the waterfront in Schenectday - the Rivers Casino at Mohawk Harbor.

 Galesi’s riverfront rehabilitation also includes a 124-room hotel and banquet facility, 304 apartment units and a supermarket. Previously, Buicko was targeting a film studio for the site but did not receive adequate funding from the state for California-based Pacifica Ventures to build a $69 million studio. [Daily Gazette]

A film studio?

 - The Rangers are doing pretty well, have I mentioned that?

Jockey's Comments Do Not Bode Well for Cali Chrome's Belmont Chances

The following is the uncensored version of my post that originally appeared on the TimeformUS blog:

Here's the TimeformUS result chart for the Preakness.

The chart is missing last place finisher Ria Antonia here.  Not making any comment....I simply ran out of room.  I'll leave the editorializing to this rather hilarious tweet:

'You know, I don't think people think we're crazy enough. I know! We'll send our dead-closing filly to the lead.'~The owners of Ria Antonia.
— Alan Schneider (@DerbyWill) May 18, 2014

Figures here are pretty straightforward; not much esoteric stuff in the way of adjusting them for pace.  Only significant upgrade was for Pablo Del Monte, who set the honest pace before fading to 6th.

It was a lifetime best TFUS speed figure of 116 for California Chrome....and career highs as well for the other two who came out of the Derby.  I did question whether that made sense considering that they all were racing two weeks after Kentucky.  The answer was a resounding "yes!"  This was an easy race to make figures for, according to Craig, our figure guru.  Ride on Curlin and General a Rod both had challenging trips in the Derby, and an easier time of it here.  As 3yos in the spring, they are both eligible to be improving at this time of the year....particularly, I'd say, Ride on Curlin, who had been showing a general trend of moving forward despite the impossible trips to which he'd been subjected.  And, of course, the Derby is run at a distance that doesn't really suit most any of these horses.

Of course, I had no questions about California Chrome's figure.  Makes perfect sense that he ran his fastest race on Saturday.  His Beyer of 105 however is not his fastest race on their scale.  That's fine, not a big difference really, just a few points.  I would however continue to question the low 97 that he got for the Derby.  His Beyer pattern of two career tops (108 and 107), followed by the 97 and the Preakness 105 might be par for the course for Sheets guys.  But I don't think that narrative really makes much common sense, considering how consistent the horse has been in terms of style and the ease of his victories.  I think we have it right that the Churchill track was slower when the Derby went off, be it due to the fact that the track hadn't been watered for quite awhile, or whatever.  Wouldn't at all be surprised if the Beyer boys adjust that number at some point down the road.

Social Inclusion was an absolute mess in the minutes leading up to the race.  He was obviously agitated, with sweat pouring down his legs.  I believe that his not going to the lead had more to do with that than with any pre-planned change in strategy.  He was still, however, able to mount enough of a challenge on the final turn to prompt Victor Espinoza to move earlier on Cali Chrome than he said he wanted to.  We can only hope that this apparently brilliant colt can endure going forward after being rushed into the Triple Crown races.

Here's the quote by Espinoza:  “I had to start moving at the half-mile pole, which is tough for a horse to start moving early and keep going all the way to the end.” [AP]

This, in my opinion, does not at all bode well for this horse's chance of winning the Belmont and, thus, becoming the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. (Wouldn't you miss saying that should he win?)  I'm honestly not sure if Ride on Curlin would really have caught California Chrome even if they took the proverbial "another trip around the track."  But the Belmont will be a different - and longer - race with a different cast of characters; and probably a lot of them....don't know if many will be scared away.  Upon those horses will be a lot of anxious jockeys likely to have a quick trigger finger as they're approaching the final turn for home (if their horse is not already done by then).

It's one thing to move a bit early in the Preakness; another one entirely if Espinoza feels the need to do so in the Belmont.  For all of his handiness, it seems as if the Derby/Preakness winner needs to be handled with some extreme care.  He's reportedly skittish in the starting gate (though we've seen no evidence of that of late), needs to be kept close up and outside of horses in order to avoid too much dirt in the face; and his jockey obviously felt the need to move prematurely to prevent another from passing him turning for home.  "I felt like I was under attack," Espinoza said, who added that he was more tired mentally than physically. Seems like odd statements for a win that looked so totally routine.  If he thinks he was "under attack" in the Preakness, just wait until the Belmont.

Additionally, we've now learned that California Chrome also needs the use of a nasal strip.  We hadn't read much about it before, but its use coincides with his six race winning streak.  The NYS Gaming Commission announced today that it will permit him to wear one in the Belmont, even though it denied permission for I'll Have Another to use it two years ago (before he was scratched due to physical issues).

The Stewards immediately sought expert analysis from New York State Gaming Commission Equine Medical Director Scott E. Palmer, VDM, on their use.

Dr. Palmer wrote: “I recommend that the stewards at State-based Thoroughbred racetracks discontinue their ban on equine nasal strips. Equine nasal strips do not enhance equine performance nor do they pose a risk to equine health or safety and as such do not need to be regulated." [NYS Gaming Commission press release]

Yeah.  I am SO sure that they would have reached the same decision if Art Sherman had a record like that of Doug O'Neill.  Or if rejecting the request wouldn't potentially lead to 40,000 less people attending the Belmont Stakes.  What a bunch of crap.

Casino Minimum Capital Requirements Are Minimal

I wrote about the win by Palace Malice at Belmont on Sunday, and a bit about the Preakness, over at the TimeformUS blog.

 - The state announced the minimum capital requirements for casino developers.  Considering the numbers that have already been thrown around - for example, the $750 million proposal for the Adelaar casino at the Concord - these are not likely to dissuade anyone.  Especially in Orange County, with its proximity to NYC.

 “I think it shows that they are rushing through this and that this has clearly not been thought out,” said Mitchell Grossinger Etess, the chief executive of the Mohegan Tribal Gaming Authority, which wants to rejuvenate his family’s famed Grossinger’s resort in Liberty, N.Y. “The premium spot, and they are only asking $350 million? It doesn’t speak to creating economic development.” [NY Times]

There had been calls from some in the Catskills for requirements as high as $1 billion for Orange County, and these numbers obviously fall far short of that.

Not quite satisfied with the minimum set at only $85 million for his hoped-for casino at Tioga Downs, Jeff Gural expressed hope that he can apply the $45 million that he's already spent on renovations towards the requirement!

“I thought they did what they said,” Gural said of the commission. “They want to get as many bidders as possible and let the free market set what everybody plans to spend.” [Pressconnects]

That's one way of putting it.  A cynic might say that keeping more bidders in the game is a good way to keep the campaign contributions and lobbying expenditures flowing.  But I guess that's being way too cynical. Right?

The bidders now have five business days to request a refund of their initial $1 million fee.  But I don't expect them to be lining up at the door.

Granted, these minimums do not include all of the expenses that will go into constructing these things.

The board also said that casino projects would entail up to hundreds of millions of dollars in additional costs that it did not include in the capital requirements — things like land acquisition, legal work and marketing. Those expenses could swell the investment in a hypothetical Orange County project, for example, to nearly $500 million, it said. [NYT]

But still, we're hardly talking about prohibitive amounts here.  I would surmise that Genting would be willing to spend up to twice that amount to have a casino just 40 miles from Manhattan.

Expenses related to convincing local communities to vote in favor of a casino - a requirement by the Gaming Commission - would presumably not count towards the minimums.  According to a report on the Capital NY website, a loophole in the law means that companies hoping to build in communities with populations of less than 50,000 would not even have to disclose their lobbying expenses there.

 And all but one of the known locations where the 22 different casino bidders have said they plan to build casinos are in towns, hamlets and villages with populations under the 50,000 population threshold, leaving it unclear how much, if anything, the casino bidders have spent to cultivate community support. [Capital New York]

 Gotta love loopholes, eh?

Speaking of disclosure, the details of NYRA CEO Chris Kay's contract have been released.  James Odato, writing in the Albany Times Union, claimed it was a FOIL request by his paper that led to the release.  But blogger Tom Noonan spilled the beans on the contract last week, claiming that it was his FOIL request that was responsible.  We'll have to give the nod to Noonan here, who revealed the generous severance clauses contained in Kay's contract on his blog well before Odato did.

Nonetheless, NYRA released the information after initially opposing it.

"Disclosure of the requested records would constitute an unwarranted invasion of Mr. Kay's personal privacy under Public Officers Law," NYRA wrote last summer. "Mr. Kay is not a public employee. He, therefore, has a significant privacy interest in avoiding disclosure of the requested records. [Albany Times Union]

I have to say that I fully agree with that.  NYRA is presently not supported by taxpayers, so I don't really see where the details of the contract is anybody's business.  I mean, by the same logic, then wouldn't we be entitled to know what Tom Durkin or Andy Serling makes?

And I say good for Chris Kay that he was able to obtain some financial protection given the uncertain circumstances under which he took this job - a temporary state takeover and talk, at the time, of selling the enterprise off -  and the relatively paltry, for a Chief Executive Officer of a business like the New York Racing Association, base salary that he agreed to take.  I don't particularly care about his automobile allowance and his stipend for living in Saratoga over the summer.  Don't understand why that is even news.  Let's move on to some important stuff.

Exit Durkin, Enter Irrelevant Musical Choices for Belmont Day

Back from Florida, where my daughter Kayla graduated from the University of Miami.

I guess this is an appropriate photo for the times in which we live.

Yeah, I'm pretty proud of her!

A couple of relevant news items caught my attention upon my return.  Tom Durkin has announced his retirement as the track announcer at NYRA after 24 years.  Some quick math reveals that he started in 1990, coming from the Meadowlands, where he called harness races (strangely, that stint was omitted from all of the news reports that I've seen).  It's been a great ride for Durkin.  However, his retirement, effective after the August 31 program at Saratoga, cannot come as a surprise to anyone who's heard his labored calls this year.

There will of course be much speculation as to his replacement. Personally, I rarely get the kind of chills from race calls that I did way back when. Maybe I've just heard too many of them.  Or perhaps it's because there just is not the kind of young talent with the kind of genuine enthusiasm who used to get me all pumped up.   Dave Johnson, Chic Anderson and, on the harness side, Ed Gorman.  Some of the greatest races I ever saw, I never actually saw at all.  The race calls told the whole story.  It's been a long time since anybody has gotten me as excited as those guys used to.

Having said that, there are plenty of fine announcers out there.  Two of them recently got high profile jobs which they perhaps wouldn't have applied for if they'd been paying closer attention to the racing at NYRA over the last year or so.  Personally, and those hirings notwithstanding, I think Vic Stauffer is the best guy out there, and he's not calling races anywhere these days.  I'd be thrilled to hear him call races here.  Kurt Becker (Keeneland) and Frank Mirahmadi (Oaklawn) would be fine choices as well.  [UPDATE: And definitely should have mentioned John Dooley (Arlington/Fair Grounds) as well; thanks to reader ljk.]

And then, there is the announcement of the entertainment choices for Belmont Stakes day.  Oh, boy.  Well, anyone who's followed this blog over the years when I had time to write about music, or has seen my occasionally-updated Playlist selections, knows that I wouldn't be happy unless the acts were booked by Bowery Presents or Todd P or Chris White. But I don't even know what to say about this. I thought at least they'd book bands that would actually draw people even if they were the wimpy pop or faux-punk crap that dominates what passes for "popular" rock music these days.  LL Cool J was cool 20 years ago.  I didn't know (nor care if) Frank Sinatra Jr was still alive....and Bernie Williams?  Seriously?   Chris Kay said: "We want everyone to come out and kick off the New York summer party season with a great afternoon of racing, complemented by a great day of entertainment and enhanced food and beverage options."  Guess we'll have to settle for the racing and food.

Post Post-Derby Notes

I wrote a bit about the Kentucky Derby here, on the TimeformUS blog. Just a few short thoughts here, because I suppose everyone is over it at this point.

 - So much for the workout reports this year.  I'd say they mostly qualified as "too much information." Never read anything that was particularly positive on California Chrome.  The workout "star," arguably Intense Holiday, was arguably the most disappointing horse in the race.  Amongst the others who got good reviews, Danza, did run well.  And though Dance With Fate actually ran pretty well, I do get to say that 'I told you so' with him.  Wicked Strong also ran pretty well.  I'd be saying 'I told you so' about him too, but I did end up wussing out and using him, though really more because there were so few horses I liked that I could afford to use him defensively.

 - Untapable, the Oaks winner, will not face the boys in the Preakness.  The owners cited "the best interest" of the filly in saying they did not want to run her back in two weeks.  I teasingly chided them for not being sporting in this TimeformUS post; but quickly backed off.  Because yes.....of course, it's all about the "best interest" of these animals, so I could never demand that an owner do anything that might smack of overextending.

On the other hand.....let's be honest here.  We all know that the "best interest" of the horse really means the best interest of owners who want to nurse her through a few more starts, and get her through the end of the year fit and sound so that they can bring her to the Keeneland sale in foal to Giant's Causeway and sell her for $20 million.  OK, sorry to be so cynical, and I apologize in advance to these particular owners if I'm being too harsh in their case.  But, as we've said before, if they were really interested in her best interest, they'd take off her tack, provide her with a lush field in which to frolic all day, set her up with a big screen TV and a cool pad so she could hang with her buddies, smoke blunts, and groove to Roy Rogers dance remixes.  But whatever.  This game is rarely about fun and sport nowadays.  All about the bottom line.  Hopefully, we'll get to see her against the boys later in the year.

It sure would have turned the Preakness from what seems like a mere formality to one of the more fascinating matchups in years.  Now we're hearing about the filly Ria Anotonia possibly running, and that deserves nothing more than a big LOL.  Social Inclusion could be an intriguing addition to the cast, but it's hard to get too enthusiastic about a horse who couldn't make his prep on Saturday because of a foot bruise.  We could see a handful of the vanquished horses, such as Commanding Curve. He's been declared as 50/50.  I'm hoping that they wait for the Belmont where we could be all in against him when he gets way overbet off his close for second.  Then there's Ride on Curlin, whose owners have fired Calvin Borel for not following instructions when he steered the horse directly over to the rail. They are the only owners that I've read saying that their horse could have won with a better trip.

 - As I said above, Intense Holiday was probably the biggest disappointment in the race.  I was apparently wrong when I speculated that they were just schooling him when he was closer to the pace in the Louisiana Derby, because there he was, for some reason, close to the pace again.  Don't really understand what the thinking is with this horse.  Clearly, he's been most effective as a closer.  The Toddster hasn't yet said what he plans to do with his quartet....though We Miss Artie is apparently headed to the Queen's Plate on the Poly at Woodbine.  Yeah, Ken Ramsey sure had the "best interest" of that horse in mind when he insisted that he run in the Derby despite his trainer's very public misgivings.  But I guess he gets a pass because he's Ken Ramsey.  He got to party at the Derby, make the walk to the paddock, his horse split the field and lives to play another day.  Danza, the horse who I was perhaps most wrong about, seems the most likely of that crew to come back next Saturday.

 - Rick Violette expressed satisfaction with the effort of Samraat, who he said "ran his eyeballs out." The trainer doesn't sound too enthused about seeing California Chrome again anytime soon. Uncle Sigh was no Palace Malice with the blinkers on, but still set a pace which was too fast for him to go on.

 - I had the NBC telecast on, but didn't really pay much attention.  Found myself doing other things while they were running features like the one on the Ortiz brothers.  I'd rather be playing other races. I mean absolutely no offense whatsoever to any of the excellent folks who worked on the telecast, both on and off camera.  It's just that I don't believe that, as an experienced horseplayer, I'm really a part of the target audience for that kind of telecast.

I'd seen the Asmussen interview online the day before.  As I'd said beforehand, he was relaxed and confident.  He probably made a pretty good impression (though, if I'm not mistaken and I didn't miss it, Costas let him off the hook on the immigration and minimum wage thing).

Derby Day 2014

Happy Derby Day!  Man, it is gorgeous here in New York - it's warm, the sun is shining, they're back on the turf at Belmont....and the Rangers won in OT!!

For my horse-by-horse Derby preview and picks, I'm going to send you to the TimeformUS blog for my Today in Racing post.

In short, my pick is Uncle Sigh (30-1 ML).  He lost those two toughies to Samraat before breaking bad and getting hung wide on both turns in the Wood.  His TimeformUS figures are competitive and steadily improving; and the Wood was actually a career high.  I like that Contessa adds blinkers, which are intended, anyway, to help him focus and not to sharpen his early speed a la Palace Malice.  His horse has come up a bit short, so hey, why not take a shot to get him over the top?  He’s also been reshod to address minor foot problems.  Looked great in an unofficial work on Wednesday.  And he has some very interesting distance influence on his female side, as detailed here.

I'll play him to win and place.  For exotics, I'll use Samraat, California Chrome, Intense Holiday and, strictly defensively, Wicked Strong.  Maybe throw in Candy Boy and Ride On Curlin if I have any money left for deep exotics by that time of the day.

Best of luck and have a great day!

He Just Can't Help Himself

A few more Derby thoughts on this Oaks day up at the TimeformUS blog here.

Quite a surprise on the front page of the New York Times today.  Not only was there no new PETA bombshell nor negative racing story of any kind, but there was this:

Can you believe this?  A bucolic (h/t to the person who uttered that word that I was struggling to recall) backstretch photo with the sun coming up in the background.  As prominent as it could possibly be!  Could this be a new age of detente?  Is the Times trying to make up for past transgressions; to make people forget that it has violated many rules of fair journalism in its zeal to advance its anti-racing agenda?  Did it send Joe Drape to the woodshed?

Well, turns out that they sent him to the online edition.  Drape apparently just could not help himself.  Just couldn't let the occasion pass.  So, we have this article on their website, entitled Scandal Casts Shadow Over Grandeur of Kentucky Derby.  Nothing to see here, really.  It's just a rehash; it contains no news whatsoever.  Gratuitous and unnecessary, in my opinion.  Makes some of the same twisted assertions; such as the totally unfounded claim that the medication issue has anything to do with the decline in wagering handle.  Perhaps we'll see it in print tomorrow when nobody is reading the Times. 

Well, I don't want to dignify it by going into the details.  But I will point out this one particularly sensationalized passage. 

  Is there a human athlete, even one paid millions of dollars annually, who would agree to a regimen of up to 26 drugs — including thyroxine to raise his metabolism and acepromazine to calm himself? Is there one who would agree to multiple injections a week to joints and muscles or undergo shock-wave therapy to get one more inning, one more quarter or one more match out of a sore body?

  Well, for one thing, I don't know that the answer to the second question is as obvious as Drape wants to make it seem!  But in any event, the comparison is just absurd.  Horses are not human athletes.  There is no comparing them.  Humans don't eat hay and oats either, nor do they sleep in a barn.  And they are not bred with the sole purpose of serving the financial and entertainment interests of other humans.  (As I've said many times, if you are a fan of the sport, you have willfully accepted that we breed these animals to exploit them for our own pleasure and gain.)  So, spare us the linguistic dramatics, please.  Just tell us who you like.

Oh.  Wicked Strong?  That's original.

Thursday Morning Derby Musings

[This post, as well as previews of some of Friday's stakes race at Churchill, is also available on the TimeformUS blog.]

Most of the Derby trainers expressed satisfaction - and probably, mostly relief - after the post position draw.  Even Jimmy Jerkens, whose Wicked Strong drew the dreaded #20 post, at least was able to smile as he said: "I’m trying to convince myself it’s not a bad post, but I don’t know if I can.”  The trainer seemed more concerned that his horse would have to stand behind the gate for so long while the others were loading. Strategically, considering that the game plan has always been for Wicked Strong to close from well off the pace, perhaps it won't be fatal given the near certainty of a fast pace. Jerkens said that Edgar Prado, who has ridden him the past, texted him: "Perfect."  Don't know about that, but hey, any closer needs things to go his way anyway in order to get an unimpeded path no matter what post he breaks from.

California Chrome was on the track on Wednesday, and the Daily Racing Form's clocker Mike Welsch wasn't particularly impressed.  "I gotta tell you, he is not the most impressive horse to watch when he gallops.  He was not striding very smooth....Out in Southern California, he might not have had many opportunities, if any at all, to set foot on a wet racetrack like we had this morning.  But it's something you have to be concerned about."

Richard Migliore, on HRTV's Pursuit of the Crown, expressed similar concerns.  "I really didn't like how he carried his tail even."  Ok, that's probably "too much information." Both gentlemen were quick to point out that they don't have a frame of reference as to how the colt generally trains.  "It's what's out of character for a particular horse, and she [HRTV's Zoe Cadman] says he looks much better going fast."  Which is the idea.  Stay tuned for more if and when he trains faster over a fast track.

Uncle Sigh had a half mile blowout, or a workout, or whatever you call it when it doesn't get timed. Welsch however caught him galloping out an extra furlong in 13 seconds.  I thought he looked great, and so did The Mig.  He's listed at 30-1 morning line; and man, at that price I'm going to have more than just a few bucks on him. (I wrote more about Uncle Sigh in my last entry.)  Here's our Pace Projector for the Derby, which shows Uncle Sigh in front.

(You can see the post positions here.)  Now, remember that we add some early pace juice when a horse adds blinkers. And it's that extra credit that is responsible for Uncle Sigh being projected as the leader.  That very well may come to pass. As trainer Gary Contessa has conceded, you don't quite know what one will get when you slap on the hood. However, sharpening his early speed is definitely not what the trainer has in mind.

"He's much more focused (with blinkers); he's rating kindly," Contessa said. "Everybody that puts blinkers on before the Derby worries about being the next Palace Malice. I see that he's rating kindly in behind horses; we put him in behind horses and made him eat dirt. We've done our due diligence this last month and we've worked him where he has to come up through the rail. I don't see any hesitancy, and I always saw hesitancy in (Uncle Sigh) without the blinkers." [KentuckyDerby.com]

Personally, I think that we're going to see Wildcat Red (#10) much closer to the front than is pictured here; and probably General a Rod (#8) as well.  Those two have shown that they want to be in front, no matter how fast or slow the pace is. That's their style, and I sure don't expect any conscious effort to change anything now.  Samraat (#6) may very well be closer early as well.  Vicar's In Trouble will likely have to gun from the rail post.  California Chrome (#5), assuming he's running fast on Saturday, will also probably be closer.  I don't believe that Ride on Curlin (#19) will be gunning toward the front from that post considering the way he closed in the Arkansas Derby, a change of tactics that would seem to serve him well.  So, while we all love Pace Projector, I have some issues with it here.

Medal Count is a horse who is getting a lot of positive attention from Welsch, and from the folks on Pursuit of the Crown for his appearances on the track this week. But he's another horse who has shown a clear affinity for synthetic, specifically that at Keeneland.  So, as with Dance With Fate, I'm just not buying the hype.

With Wicked Strong in the #20 hole, morning odds maker Mike Battaglia has installed Hoppertunity as the 6-1 second choice.  [UPDATE: He's scratched.  Damn.] Don't know if I'm buying that either.  I think that bettors will see that he lost to California Chrome by five lengths and shy away.  I'm looking for Danza, Intense Holiday, Wildcat Red, General a Rod, and Samraat to be bet a bit lower than what they are listed at in the morning line.

Wednesday Morning Derby Notes (Before the Draw)

As you might have noticed, I'm writing about the Derby here and also in my Today in Racing column over at the TimeformUS blog.  And yes, I'm repeating stuff.  So, please forgive me if you're reading both, and some of it sounds familiar!

Tapiture was the other worker besides Hoppertunity, who we discussed in the prior post, on Monday.  It was a "typical Steve Asmussen work" we are told - a nice and easy half in 50.16 seconds.  Of course, there's little 'typical' around the trainer these days.  While there's a pretty good chance he'll be standing in the winner's circle on Friday with Untapable, I'd be quite surprised if he wins the Derby with this colt. I know many people would consider that to be a "nightmare" scenario.  However, I've seen Asmussen interviewed this week, and he seems quite relaxed and happy.  I'm sure he would do a perfectly fine job addressing any questions and putting a rational and human face before the cameras amidst the controversy swirling about him.

I watched Tuesday's Pursuit of the Crown telecast on HRTV, and they are pretty much down to mostly filler at this point.  General a Rod was the only horse who worked out.  If you missed it, he was sold on Monday.  His prior owner, one J. Armando Rodriguez, relinquished all ownership interest in the colt.  If that's not a direct message as to how he feels about his Derby chances, I don't know what is!  You gotta love that....take the money and run, while you can!  Anyway, that was supposedly the final timed workout of the week.  I've heard of scheduled three furlong "blowouts" for Uncle Sigh and Wicked Strong on Thursday; but Contessa says nothing of the sort regarding the former in Tuesday's Churchill Downs Derby report (also filled with filler); just that he'll school in the paddock before the fifth race.

Uncle Sigh was equipped with the blinkers in which he will be outfitted for the first time, and The Mig reported on HRTV that he has been reshod to deal with "minor" foot issues. No, you don't want to hear about foot issues at this point.  Both Mike Welsch and the Mig said he looked "better" on Tuesday than he did on Monday, whatever that means; he was just doing a light jog both days.  This horse figures to be overlooked in the wagering, and I'm going to have at least a few bucks on him at 20-1 or something in that vicinity, hopefully higher.  I'm tossing his Wood, in which he was off a beat slow - he schooled in the starting gate on Tuesday - and was significantly wide on both turns.  Prior to that, he'd done little wrong other than failing, narrowly, to beat Samraat.  He's earned competitive TFUS speed figures; we have both he and Samraat rated higher than does Beyer, and, as I've said, I think that Samraat's Wood vindicates our numbers.  Uncle Sigh has the tactical speed to gain good position in the chaotic run to the first turn.  Barring another misstep at the start, of course.

My concern is that he could be a bit too one-paced to make the kind of finishing move needed to win this thing.  But he sure has a some interesting stamina influence on the female side of the pedigree.  By the solid middle-distance sire Indian Charlie, he's out of a dam by the 1992 Preakness winner Pine Bluff, whose progeny have an average winning distance of 7.36 furlongs.  Uncle Sigh is a half-brother to a couple of middle-distance stakes winners in Slew by Slew and Percussion.  And though the latter was second in the mile and a half Brooklyn Handicap, that was a horrible race from which I wouldn't necessarily draw conclusions.  More interesting if you delve back further: the dam is a half-sister to Symphony Sid, who won the 12 furlong Carlton F. Burke on the turf in front-running fashion.  Underneath the third dam, besides the champion 2yo filly Storm Song, is Better Life, a "champion stayer" in Japan who won up to about 1 3/8 miles; Balladry, stakes placed in marathon turf stakes up to a mile and a half; and Midsummer Fair, another Japanese distance winner, at a mile and a quarter.  Peak back even further, and you'll find Flit-to, a multiple-graded stakes winner on the grass from the 70s who won up to ten furlongs. And his 5th dam, Fleet Victress, was a fabulous turf filly who was a huge favorite of mine back in the 70s.  (Perhaps we'll see Uncle Sigh run on the turf some day.)  So yeah, I'm feeling this colt as a longshot play.

Mike Welsch was not happy with the demeanor of Wicked Strong on Tuesday.  Gave him a pass the prior day for being distracted on his first visit to the track.  But he said that, on Tuesday,  the colt continued to lack focus and was looking around, particularly at the new giant screen towering over the backstretch.  Now, perhaps this qualifies as "too much information."  But, as we know, the horse has not run well outside of his familiar surroundings in New York.  As I've been saying, he's getting a lot of attention from his Wood win, in which he had a lot of things go his way.  Consensus is he'll be second choice off of that race.  I think he'd be horribly overbet if so.  And in any event, I don't think he will hit the board.

Another horse getting talked up on Pursuit of the Crown was Dance With Fate.  He's getting raves for his workout at Santa Anita - a sharp half mile in 47 seconds - which you can watch here.  I've already gotten some blowback for dismissing him as a synthetic specialist.  (Just to clarify, when I wrote "what a joke," I was referring to his standing at #3 in the points based on a win on synthetic, and not to those of you who like him.  I disagree with those of you respectfully.)  Perhaps I underrated his dirt race last year in which he was second at Santa Anita, ahead of Tamarando (who I don't seem to notice in the Derby field), earning a modest TFUS speed figure of 91.  However, I cannot get past the remarks of his trainer, Peter Eurton, who, in the immediate aftermath of his G1 win in the Blue Grass, when he should have been basking in the fact that his horse qualified for the Kentucky Derby, said: “He doesn’t have the power to get through dirt. It will break away from him. I’ve seen him train over synthetics, and he gets over it so much easier.”  We all would pay good money to hear that kind of insider stuff from trainers, and here he said it right out in public.  Besides, that workout would not even have been on dirt had it not rained - it was scheduled for the turf.  It's one thing to work out on dirt - Eurton said he's always worked well on the stuff - and another thing to "power through" it in a race.  I'm throwing this horse out completely, and if he beats me, then very well.

Tuesday Morning News and Derby Notes

Genting announced the details of its casino plan and it is, as was speculated, located in Tuxedo, in Orange County, just 43 miles from midtown Manhattan.  It's practically a straight shot up route 17.

 Unlike most of the other development plans, Genting declined to say how much it would spend on the proposed casino site, which would feature everything from two hotels to money for the state to build a new interchange on the New York State Thruway near its proposed casino site. The state next month will be setting minimum development price tags for the casino operators based, possibly, on which county they plan to locate. [Bloodhorse]

If they were to win a license for this project, it would create a Yonkers Raceway sandwich on Genting Rye, hold the onions and mustard please.  Already hurt by the presence of Resorts World at Aqueduct 23 miles to its south, this new ridiculously-named Sterling Forest Resort would lie less than 40 miles to its northwest.  This is not going to happen, in my opinion.  I am firmly sticking to my belief that the two Catskills/Hudson Valley casinos will be sited in the Catskills in order to fulfill the governor's promise of using the casinos to bring economic relief to long-suffering areas upstate.  For whatever that ultimately proves to be worth.

 - Hoppertunity was the workout star at Churchill on Monday.....though his was one of only two timed drills over the wet track.  In addition to the lack of depth of talent that is making this year's Derby relatively uninteresting (as uninteresting as a 20 horse race of animals who have been under the microscope for months and who have never run the distance can be), there's not going to be much from which to parse their fitness and affinity for the track the rest of this week.  The workouts are just about over, with the exception of General a Rod today; and perhaps blowouts by Uncle Sigh and Wicked Strong on Thursday (though I'm not clear as to whether they will be official timed drills).

Anyway, I'm now favorably reconsidering Hoppertunity.  He worked in company with Baffert's Grade 1 winning Drill, and you can watch how well he handled the track here, via HRTV.com.  He went five furlongs in 1:01.25, and earned effusive praise from DRF's Mike Welsch, and from Richard Migliore on HRTV's Pursuit of the Crown (a must-watch if you have that network).  Welsch caught him galloping out six furlongs in 1:14; seven furlongs in 1:27 1/5, "in hand the entire way."  And remember that Baffert commented that Garcia had trouble pulling him up.  Welsch called it one of the best works he's seen there, and it was his second impressive work, with the first one coming on a dry track.

So the horse is sharp, he's very lightly raced and obviously eligible to improve (as most of these are).  Forget his debut at seven furlongs, and his 4th in the Risen Star, which was only his third career start and in which he was impossibly wide.  He won the Rebel, earning a TFUS figure of 103.  He then improved his figure to a 107 when beaten by California Chrome in the SA Derby.  That isn't too far off the mark of the top numbers earned by Wicked Strong (117), Samraat (114), and California Chrome (113) - and it's going in the right direction.  (Beyer gave him a 100 for the Rebel, and had him regressing in the SA Derby.)  And we're about due for a Derby winner who hasn't raced at two, don't you think?  His pedigree is rather intriguing.  He's by Any Given Saturday out of Refugee, a mare by the Whitney/Jim Dandy winner Unaccounted For.  Refugee ran third in the Grade 2, mile and a half Orchid Stakes on the grass at Gulfstream in 2002; but she was in front at the mile and a quarter mark, and got the last quarter to that point in a snappy 23.78 seconds.  So certainly a hint of stamina there....if just a hint. [And I should have added that he's a half-brother to Baffert's fine multiple Grade 1 winner Executiveprivilege.]

Maybe Hoppertunity is the sharp and improving horse that will be somewhat overlooked in the betting.  Sometimes, when confronted with what seems like clear evidence that a horse isn't quite good enough to win - in this case, that last running line that shows him getting beat by five lengths by California Chrome - the bettors will be dissuaded enough to allow it to go off overlaid in the win pool.  With a Derby berth assured, it's entirely possible that Baffert did not have the colt fully cranked for that race.  If the workouts are any indication, he appears to be getting cranked now.

Intense Buzz on Intense Holiday

We have our first big buzz workout of the week, and it was by Intense Holiday, one of the Pletcher Derby quartet.  On Sunday, with Johnny V. aboard, the son of Harlan's Holiday earned accolades all around for his half mile blowout in 48.65 seconds, and for the smooth gallop-out that followed.  You can see how easily he did it here, via the HRTV.com site. Mike Welsch, the DRF clocker, called it the top workout of the morning "by many, many lengths."  Welsch got him coming home in 23 3/5, and reported that he was the only horse he caught in under 13 seconds for the furlong past the finish line.

Both jockey and trainer noted that Intense Holiday changed leads smoothly.  This had been a concern.  I'd read Haskin going on about his having "crossfired" in the Louisiana Derby; and while I don't know what that means, I do know that the esteemed correspondent for Bloodhorse, after so many months of spending far too much time following these horses, becomes increasingly incoherent in the final weeks and days leading up to the race.

Now, what does this mean, exactly?  I very much liked this horse's win in the Risen Star back in February.  Intense Holiday encountered early traffic, was 3-5 wide on the turn home, and closed with grim determination to overcome a seemingly insurmountable late gap.  He closed the final five-sixteenths in an impressive 30 4/5 seconds.  He then disappointed somewhat with a second place finish in the Louisiana Derby as the 9-5 favorite.  But he was closer to the pace than usual, which I took as an attempt at some schooling on the part of jockey Mike Smith. So I'm not really deterred by that race; in fact, I was hoping it would cause him to be overlooked in the wagering.  The thing is that he's never run particularly fast.  His top TFUS speed figure is the 100 he got for the Risen Star - not even the highest in that race, which was earned by pacesetting Albano. That number is far down on our list of top 3yo figures, led by Wicked Strong at 117.  (If you go to our partner site Horseracingnation.com and scroll down, you can see all the top 3yo figures in the lower right corner.)  Beyer gave Intense Holiday a 97 for the Risen Star, as opposed to California Chrome's 108 in the San Felipe.  (I'm excluding Social Inclusion for this purpose until and unless he sneaks into the Derby field.)

As we know, these horses can improve, and quickly, so I wouldn't be bothered by his figures, as long as I was getting 15- or 20-1 on the chance that he has indeed progressed sufficiently to win on Saturday. Now, he has the buzz-y workout, maybe he follows that up with an impressive gallop later on this week, everyone is talking about it and you're talking maybe half those odds.  Then he's far less interesting and, at a certain odds level, becomes a horse to flat-out oppose.  After all, he's won once since graduating, and that was against a field that I don't think that highly of.

We Miss Artie was the hapless horse on the inside of Intense Holiday, and the Toddster was particularly frank in saying: "I’m not sure at all if he should be running in the Derby." Wow.  Those are words that an owner certainly does not want to hear.  Especially, I suppose, an owner as ambitious and as fond of smiling in the winner's circle as Ken Ramsey.  I dunno, one might think that an owner, in the best interest of the horse, would immediately declare his/her horse out after comments like that from the trainer. However, no word as of this writing, so I guess he's still in.  Because it's the Derby.

Danza also worked a half-mile for Pletcher, in 49.07, earning generally good reviews.  I'm not buying this horse, at all.  Got a competitive speed figure of 110 in winning the Arkansas Derby, but got the trip up the rail and beat a slow group that did not show much improvement as the preps moved along.  And I'm thinking he'll be overbet.

Negative workout reports on Wildcat Red and Vicar's In Trouble, two horses that I'd prefer to see well-reviewed so that they will get bet.  Don't think either of them has a chance.  Ride on Curlin worked seven furlongs in 1:29; Welsch got the last three furlongs in 37 flat, and termed it in "an OK work."  He was encouraged by the rider as they came down to the finish line.  You can see it here.  (In fact, you can see every Derby workout at Churchill on the HRTV.com site.  It has an efficient search function to find them by horse name too, so this is a fantastic tool for those of you into evaluating works for yourself.) Ride on Curlin is a horse I'm thinking can maybe hit the board.

Bad weather at Churchill today, but Baffert got a workout in with Hoppertunity - a half in 48.40 seconds - and said that Martin Garcia had "a tough time pulling him up."  Steve Asmussen didn't wait for the rain to stop, as Tapiture got a half in 50 second in a driving thunderstorm.  Hopefully, that does not qualify as animal abuse.  Yeah, I'm not particularly excited by either of those horses, either.

In fact, I'm not trembling with joy over most of these.  I could not even begin to tell you who or how I'm going to bet.  Post position and odds will be the main factors, and I see myself scrambling to get my bets in with just a few minutes to post.

Saturday News and Notes

All three New York-based Derby contenders worked out there on Friday, with Samraat working a mile at Aqueduct and Wicked Strong and Uncle Sigh breezing seven and five furlongs, respectively, over Belmont Park's training track. [KentuckyDerby.com] They all earned the usual accolades that we've come to expect from trainers before the big race.

Rick Violette (Samraat): "Time was only important if he went too fast, and he didn't. He went great."

Jimmy Jerkens (Wicked Strong): "As far as how he's doing, I couldn't be happier."

Gary Contessa (Uncle Sigh): ""His last quarter-mile was effortless and it was exactly what I was looking for. He came back like he can't even blow out a match."

Talk about clichés! That's really helpful, eh? Uncle Sigh was equipped with blinkers, which he will add for the Derby. Contessa says not to worry about a Palace Malice scenario, that he's "rating kindly" with them in the A.M. His colt has been just a tad short in his matchups with Samraat, so I don't mind seeing his trainer try something new in order to get him over the top. Uncle Sigh should be a fairly big price after a very troubled trip in the Wood, and I think he'll be well worth considering with an OK post draw.

Samraat continued his routine of one mile works, though previously, Violette had shipped him down to Palm Meadows in between his NY races. He's a colt who should not mind the travel anyway. He's obviously a talented and consistent horse, and I like him a lot. But I'm wondering if he's perhaps a bit too one-paced to take the top prize in this particular race.

Wicked Strong showed the kind of running style that is more likely to win the Derby when he took the Wood, earning a TFUS speed figure of 117 that is tops amongst all the three-year olds. On the Beyer scale, by which most bettors will make their selections, he ranks second amongst the colts, four points lower than California Chrome (108). Wicked Strong had everything go his way in the Wood, and I believe that he's going to be grossly overbet come post time next Saturday. Depending on the post positions, I would not at all be surprised if he goes off as the second choice.

The Derby website presents a daily capsule look at the contenders in order of their points standings. That means that Dance With Fate, a horse who has run dismally on dirt, is mentioned third by virtue of his win on the Polytrack in the Blue Grass. What a joke. Yet, I'm seeing a fair amount of sentiment on Twitter that he has a chance. I hope that translates into action on the tote board.

Pletcher's quartet of Intense Holiday, We Miss Artie, Vinceremos, and Danza - which includes the horse I currently like - are all scheduled to work out tomorrow at Churchill.

Please click to read more at the TimeformUS blog.

22 21 (20?) Casino Hopefuls Pay to Play

Here's the list of the 22 21 casino applicants who have submitted their $1 million application fee.  (21 because Saratoga harness is applying for two licenses.)  And actually maybe only 20 if you consider that two are listed as joint ventures between Cordish and Penn National.


1.  Caesars Entertainment
2.  Capital Region Gaming, LLC
3.  Concord Kiamesha LLC and Mohegan Gaming New York LLC by DelBello Donnellan Weingarten Wise & Wiederkehr LLP
4.  CRCR Enterprises, LLC (a joint venture between The Cordish Companies and Penn National
Gaming, Inc)
5.   Empire Resorts
6.   Florida Acquisition Corp by Clairvest
7.   Greenetrack , Inc.
8.   Grossinger Development Corporation
9.   Howe Caves Development LLC
10. Hudson Valley Gaming, LLC
11. Nevele-R, LLC by Nevele Resort, Casino & Spa
12. NYS Funding, LLC by Och-Ziff Real Estate
13. OCCR Enterprises, LLC (a joint venture between The Cordish Companies and Penn National
Gaming, Inc)
14. PNK Development 33, LLC by Pinnacle Entertainment
15. Rolling Hills Entertainment LLC by Baker Botts LLP
16. RW Orange County LLC by Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP
17. Saratoga Harness Racing Inc. (I)
18. Saratoga Harness Racing Inc. (II)
19. Tioga Downs Racetrack LLC
20. Trading Cove New York, LLC
21. Traditions Resort & Casino
22. Wilmot Casino & Resort by Wilmorite, Inc.

#16 is Genting.  They are applying for a casino in an undisclosed location in the Catskills/Hudson Valley region.  The Times reports today that one location they are considering is in Tuxedo, about 40 miles from Manhattan, making it the closest location to New York City under review.  Genting of course also has an interest through a subsidiary in the Empire Resorts (the Monticello harness track owner) proposal at the Concord.  So, I imagine that their partners in that venture are not too thrilled, unless they are trying to pull some kind of deke to dissuade others to ultimately, by the June 30 deadline to submit a full application, abandon their Catskills bid.

Similarly, hard to say exactly what Saratoga Harness is up to with their second bid, which was approved last night by the Town of Newburgh board.  It's becoming apparent that the real reason that James Featherstonhaugh resigned as president NYGA was because he would be acting contrary to the interest of other NYGA members.  Yonkers would certainly be negatively affected by a casino in Newburgh, just about 55 miles away.  And any casino located in the Hudson Valley area would darken the prospects of one in the Catskills, such as the one at the Concord.  But Feathers is trying to frame this proposal as one that would not harm a Catskills facility.  

James Featherstonhaugh, a partner in Saratoga, said the Newburgh location would not interfere with a casino in Sullivan County, unlike proposals at locations at the southern end of Route 17. The Hudson Valley Casino & Resort would also capture Connecticut gamblers, he said.

 That seems like a stretch.  However, it is my opinion that it is highly unlikely that a casino license will be approved for Orange County.  I believe it is a compelling argument that the intent of this whole exercise is to benefit areas upstate; that's the whole theory behind the (theoretical) seven year moratorium on a casino in NYC.  After all, the law that authorized the four casinos that are being bid for is called the Upstate NY Gaming Economic Development Act.  When Cuomo signed it, he said: “Our focus has been to bring jobs and boost local economies in Upstate New York, where decades of decline have taken their toll in our communities."

Now, it's true that things aren't so great in, for example, Newburgh.  However, I don't believe that's what the governor had in mind as 'upstate.'  There have been efforts to revive the long-suffering Catskills region via gambling for decades now, and, while I certainly could be wrong, I believe that time has come, and that the region will take priority and get both licenses.  Despite what Feathers says, any destination casino resort in a location 60 miles from Manhattan is going to seriously threaten any located in the Catskills.  I believe that the sentiment in Albany will be tilted towards the latter.  And that the "independent" siting board consisting of 2/3rds Cuomo cronies will follow suit.  (Still waiting for the other two appointees.)

Three of the applicants are apparently mysterious.

While most developers have made their New York casino plans known in recent months, little was known about three of the applicants, including a fee submitted by a capital management group known as Och-Ziff.

A spokesman for the group did not return a call for comment Thursday.

Lee Charles, a partner at Baker Botts LLP, said the law firm wasn't authorized to comment on the plans of its client, Rolling Hills Entertainment LLC. Rolling Hills was one of the developers to submit the application fee.

Contact information for Hudson Valley Gaming, LLC -- another group that submitted a fee -- could not be found Thursday. [Democrat & Chronicle]

The governor couldn't help himself, and had to do a little crowing.  

 “The cynics said, ‘You’re not going to get the applications, people are not going to apply, the time is done, gaming is over the curve....I think you’ve actually had more interest and it’s gone better than people suspected it might early on.” [NYT]

 Yeah, whatever, governor.  I think that the cynicism was directed more regarding the Southern Tier/Finger Lakes region, which only attracted three bidders including Jeff Gural's Tioga Downs; the competitors there being the last two on the list, Traditions and Wilmot.  And the recent interest in Orange County is contrary to what he had in mind.  Let's see how this all shakes out when the minimum capital investment requirements are released next month; when the companies will really have to put their monies where their mouths and wallets are.

Saratoga Harness Owners Look to Double the Fun

 - I have a couple of posts about last weekend's racing up at the TimeformUS blog, here and here.

 - Saratoga Casino & Raceway has released the details of their proposed casino in East Greenbush.

  The Casino at East Greenbush presentation by YNNwebteam

Yes, it will have "spectacular views of the Capital District," as well as the usual entertainment, retail, and lodging options.  But no water park, which I know must be a disappointment.  It contains the expected promises of jobs and economic benefits, both to the state at large and the local community. And the usual BS about what they're going to do to address problem gambling, as if they really care.  "We believe in a moral, social, and business responsibility to promote responsible gaming by our employees and patrons."  Right.  As I've said before, any facility that provides easy access to gambling at 10:00 on weekday mornings is not promoting responsible gaming.  Whatever.

No less than three times in the document, we are told that the owners have "decades of gaming experience."  Well, maybe I'm being too picky here. But the racino at the Saratoga harness track opened in 2004.  Now I suppose that, technically, horse racing is considered to be "gaming." However, I think that we all know what the term generally refers to. That's why "racing" and "casino" are always separate links on websites.  In the FAQ section on the Saratoga harness site, the answer to the question "Can I wager on horse racing from the gaming floor?" is no.  Again, perhaps I'm being too cynical in this case; but the point is that the claim is rather disingenuous, and gives the impression that the owners have decades of experience running the kind of facility that they are proposing to build. Which they don't.

In a surprising development, the folks at the Saratoga harness track will be submitting plans for a second casino; this one further downstate, in Newburgh.  Yeah, when we were told that James Featherstonhaugh was leaving his position at NYGA to pursue a casino, we didn't figure he'd be this busy!  They will submit their proposal to the Newburgh Town Board this evening.  Whether they really intend to bid for two casinos, or are just trying to ensure that they get at least one, remains to be seen.  You may be relieved to know that a spokesperson said "there are no plans to pursue any other licenses in New York."

Newburgh is in Orange County, which is a contentious subject.  Folks in the Catskills region had been assuming that the two licenses intended for the Catskills/Hudson Valley Region would both be sited there.  However, Orange County, with its proximity to New York City, is a prime location which is attracting much interest; including from Caesars World.  Potential developers further north fear that casinos there would doom their prospects; and the owners of the Empire Casino at Yonkers are not too thrilled either. There is sentiment in the state legislature against the idea too.

 But State Senator John J. Bonacic, a Republican who represents the Catskills, said the casino legislation was meant to create jobs and economic activity at the north end of the region, not in more prosperous Orange County.  [NYT]

Empire Resorts, the owner of Monticello Raceway that is hoping to build that casino at the Concord, argues that an Orange County casino, in addition to damaging their business, would be dilutive overall to the state's revenue.  “It won’t add to state revenues like a casino in Sullivan or Ulster counties."  But Orange County hopefuls will counter with predictions of their own.  A senior VP at Cordish which is proposing to build near Woodbury (the site of the Caesars proposal), said that a Catskills casino would be "recipe for disaster."  Of course, those in Sullivan County who have, for years/decades now, been hoping for a casino to revive their economy (for whatever that may ultimately be worth) might disagree with that assessment.