An Early Pick Three

- It was just a few years ago that I recall a day before the Belmont spent at the track. It was a 3 PM twilight card, and War Emblem was to go for the Triple Crown the next day. So there was a buzz at the track. NYRA hired what they called ‘street performers’ for the occasion, and there were jugglers, magicians, and mimes sprinkled throughout the backyard. It doesn’t take that much to make a day seem a little special, and distinguish it from all the other days, especially in these days of sparse attendance.

It wasn’t quite just another day today. There are tents and food stands set up in the backyard and extra beer stands inside. The well-dressed crowd in the paddock anyway, was as large as you would generally see on a weekend day with a big stakes. Matt Carrothers and Todd Scrhrmmfff took up residence in their tent. A blimp hovered over head, flashing ads to the crowd of 4,612. Perhaps someone thought that it would be like Oaks day and that there would actually be a crowd there. Watching a race from temporary stands on the grandstand apron, I actually ducked when, out of the corner of my eye, I saw a prehistoric creature flying towards me as the horses came down the stretch. It turned out to be a moving camera stand, the operator apparently practicing his timing.

I didn’t hear anybody actually talk about the Belmont. Though NYRA was obviously gearing up for a big day, the expectations seem to have dropped throughout the week. Charles Hayward, contradicting his always optimistic VP Bill Nader, said he’d be happy with a crowd of 50,000, and that seems to have become the unofficial over/under.

Anyway, I got there just for the last few races, and hit the 7th race triple with my only bet of the day. It was my favorite kind of race to handicap and bet – the one in which I can identify the favorite as a bet-against almost immediately upon viewing the Form. Monsoon Rain, the 8-5 morning line favorite, was bet down steadily to even money by post time. This Darley colt ran an OK 3rd last month here in his first race in this country, first on the dirt, and his return after and absence of a year and a half, earning a field high Beyer of 96. It wasn’t a bad race, but now, he was stretching out from six furlongs to a mile and a sixteenth against a pretty decent field, and he seemed like a big underlay

And I finally listened to myself – I’ve been writing that Zito seems poised to break out, and I went with his Regent Spirit (Concerto), even though he was going beyond seven furlongs for the first time. 5-1 and the percolating trainer made it worthwhile to play him on top. He sat behind the two leaders, and seemed ready to strike against 9-1 Meniscus midstretch. But the latter dug in determinedly, and it came down to an excruciating head-bobbing finish which, in this case, went in my favor, yay! Would have been nice if the favorite ran out (I had the 4th and 5th horses for 3rd), but I’m certainly not complaining about the $225 payoff.

I bring this up not only to satisfy my urge to bring it up, but because there are two somewhat similar situations on the front and back end of Saturday’s Pick 3 in races 3-5. In the third, Godolphin’s Safsoof (Gilded Time) is listed as the 5-2 favorite. Like Monsoon Rain, he ran third in his first US race, and earned a field high last-out Beyer of 96. He’s only stretching out to seven furlongs, but it’s worth noting that he’s 1 for 5 lifetime on the dirt, and that win was on a Polytrack surface in England.

In the 5th, it’s Godolphin again (and Walter is going to yell at me for throwing both of them out), this time with Afrashad (Smoke Glacken), also listed as the 5-2 choice. He’s even harder for me to buy; it’s his second career race, first in this country, and first in almost two years! Yes, he’s working well, and his trainer has good stats with limited starters off layoffs and first time North America. But still, he seems to demand a stance against at low odds.

So here’s the Pick 3. In the third: Marco’s Tale (Tale of the Cat) is the only horse that has come out of the Wood and won. (He ran last in the Wood.) He returns to allowance company after running 4th in a stakes against a very good field featuring winner Fabulous Strike, a dark horse for the Woody Stephens; Dontfearthereaper, a nice looking sprinter for Dutrow, Saint Daimon, who won here the other day, and Lafayette runner-up Laptop Computer. He meets no such foes here. Freedom Isn’t Free (Fly So Free) has been knocking on the door with consistent 90+ figs. His trainer, Dominic Galluscio, is only 1 for 34 at the meeting. But that win came on Thursday with 9-2 Shady Lane. Later that day, his Organizer ran second in a state-bred stakes at 12-1. On Friday, he sent out 9-1 Meniscus, the horse that nearly beat me out of the triple. The question is whether Freedom Isn’t Free will get enough of a pace to close into, but he’s consistent and sharp, and his trainer seems to be heating up.

The 4th is a fairly dismal state-bred race, and I could almost single Precise Action (Precise End). He showed an excellent pattern of Beyer improvement before having a rough start trying a mile. He cuts back to seven furlongs and should pick up where he left off with a cleaner beginning. But I’ll also use He’s A Lumberjack (Prime Timber). He was well bet in his first start shipping in from Florida, and ran a field high Beyer of 88 in running second at a mile.

Then in the 5th, a six furlong entry level allowance, I’ll use Saratoga Jet (A.P Jet). This NY-bred is trying open company for the first time. But he changed tactics and rallied from off the pace to win his last (as a restricted allowance race, excluded from the conditions of this race), and that style could suit him well in a race filled with speed (including perhaps the Godolphin entry Afrashad). I’ll also use Cool Springs Saint (Sweetsouthernsaint). Even though he’s never raced shorter than seven furlongs and seems to prefer a mile; I’m not letting Bruce Levine beat me with a layoff horse, with which he hits at 24% over 180 days.

But the horse I’ll really be rooting for is 12-1 Lively Up Yourself (Littlebitlively). Yes, he’s drawn the outside post and goes for low-win percentage trainer Joe Lostritto. He also seems to need the lead. But in his last, a five furlong stakes at Monmouth, he changed tactics and was last early (and watching the race, I didn’t see much to merit the “shuffled back” comment line, and it seemed like a legit change of tactics). He then rallied nicely for third, getting the last furlong in 11 seconds. He finished just four lengths behind Slam Bammy and Terrific Challenge, two very nice sprinters who would both bury this field.

So the Pick 3: 2,6 / 8,9 / 1,2,9 $24 for a $2 bet.