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Saturday, February 27, 2010

Gulfstream Notes

In the third, Homeboykris (4-1), last year's winner of the Champagne (run at the same one-turn mile route as this race), makes his second start of the year after running 5th in the Holy Bull. Son of Roman Ruler got involved up front early and was cooked after a second quarter run in 21.87. Dutrow switches here to Leparoux, looking perhaps for a stalk and rally trip as in the Champagne. That race has proven to be a pretty good one; 2nd place finisher Discreetly Mine won the Risen Star as you probably know, 4th place Super Saver subsequently won the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club (and is being pointed to make his three-year old debut in the Gotham or Rebel); and 5th place Dublin really improved last weekend in his two-turn debut. General Maximus (2-1) has nice figs in his two wins in two races, but steps up in class and goes beyond six furlongs for the first time. Radiohead (3-1) has never run on dirt.

In the 6th, Roman Tiger (6-1) had long layoffs prior to his last two races, but now returns promptly following his 7th in the Sunshine Millions, a tough spot for a return. Lightly raced 5-year old has kept some stellar company, and should appreciate the significant class relief here. Hariolus (8-1) has gone well in two turf tries since being claimed back by trainer Danny Miller. Could grab a share from far back moving up in class.

In the 8th, the G3 The Very One, Cable (6-1) stretches out for McLaughlin. Another lightly raced 5-year old, this daughter of Dynaformer showed she's worthy class-wise in a mediocre graded stakes, closing into a very slow early pace in the Suwannee River, flying home for second to hot horse Tottie in a final furlong of 11.18 (last 3/8ths in 34.29). That, and her breeding, suggest she may like this added distance, and I'd take 6-1 to find out in this field for sure.


DiscreetPicks said...

Regarding the jockey change on Homeboykris, it's interesting to know that Prado (who had ridden Homeboykris in each of his last three starts)is now getting the call on his Dutrow stablemate Radiohead. That might be telling here. I do side with you on Homeboykris, however. Looks like it sets up quite well for him pace-wise here, and it should be noted that the 2/1 ml favorite General Maximus wasn't exactly flattered by Afleet Express the other day. I think Homeboykris can sit off General Maxcimus here, and then take the lead into the lane with a nice head-start on the closers. We shall see.

Anonymous said...

Its just a real nice card down at GP today, with two full fields of promising MSW 3yo's trying one mile sandwiching the Homeboykris race, and two vulnerable ML favorites in Justwhistledixie and Bickersons in R7 and 8.

Though in a few wide open turf races and it adds up to a nice day of wagering.

Alan Mann said...

Thanks DP, missed that on Prado/Dutrow; honestly didn't give Radiohead much of a look given the surface issues and his morning line.

Agree re: Bickersons, and I don't like Amen Hallelujah on the surface/odds angle either. Tough race. Gotta like Sassy's Image's return. A bit interested in Female Drama (12-1)....can excuse the Old Hat, prior showed some excellent speed in sprints - good Moss Pace numbers, and could like the stretch out. Nice Tomlinson and dosage numbers for distance, Indian Charlie out of a Dixieland Band mare.

steve in nc said...

I'm taking the jockey changes as a negative for Homeboy. Leparoux has hardly ridden for Dutrow (0-3 in the last 60 days according to BRIS) but Prado is 3-7 with him including 3-3 in the last 2 weeks). Radiohead has been away and presumably will be faster than his previous figs - 3YOs off long layoffs are typically underbet because people don't take that into account. That said, 3-1 ML for first time dirt isn't where I want to be.

My friend who follows GP trainers closely reports that Zito has been white hot with horses second time at the meet. I like Quick Ride's sheet pattern, having just gotten past his 2YO top and he's been given a short breather since. Quick Ride over Radiohead for me. I hope everyone bets G.M. - with his sprint pedigree and trainer, I'm playing him out of the tris.

Anonymous said...

Yikes, Santa Anita cancelled yet again.

Am I crazy believing that an "inability to drain" says more about the base and alleged state of the art drainage system than the pro-ride?

Is pro-ride working anywhere else?

DiscreetPicks said...

The Santa Anita situation is beyond ridiculous. And now i'm reading that Stronach may go with some new hybrid surface rather than traditional dirt. Apparently he's alredy installed the hybrid surface at a track in Austria (i know, some big-time racing there), and they've been pleased with the results. But the idea that he would even consider taking a chance on a somewhat-unproven surface after all the problem's they've had seems to defy logic. I'm crossing my fingers for dirt.

As far as the Pro-Ride goes, i think it may be getting a bad rap here. The original synthetice track was installed by Cushion Track, and though i believe the track was completely overhauled by the Pro-Ride people at some point, who knows how much of that Cushion Track base/drainage system was left intact. That being said, i'll never understand why Tapeta surface (which had been in use here in America for nearly a decade at the training center of a master horseman) was bypassed by virtually every major track that installed synthetic. Golden Gate and Presque Isle Downs (and now the zillion-dollar track in Dubai called Meydan) were the only places that opted for it, and strangely enough, i haven't heard of any problems at those places. I suppose the Polytrack @ Keeneland has done okay, but of course they've had Polytrack issues at both Turfway and Del Mar. Particularly Turfway, where the kickback problem is downright insane. I can't believe they haven't replaced it yet.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Discreet for shedding some light, for those of us that don't follow any of those tracks it is downright confusing.

I suspect that with KEE owning the polytrack company, even if there were problems they would be kept very quiet. Horsemen would not dare complain. Plus they run very shorts meets.

Stronarch is just plain nuts.

I agree that the base would seem to be the issue, not the pro ride, so no matter what he does the base needs to be scrapped and reinstalled properly. I suspect they assumed desert conditions when it was originally installed and they were fooled by mother nature.

If a new base is intalled properly a dirt track would prove best and very poplular since it would then be the lone true dirt surface at a Class A track west of the rockies.

When NYRA installs AWT, either on the training and/or the inner track, I hope they do serious reseach into which surface has held up in wet/winter conditions.

It seems as if Turfway, the only true winter track with AWT, has had plenty of problems. What does Woodbine use? They race trotters year round on that surface, correct?

Anonymous said...

Radiohead looked good but doubt he will stretch out.

In the immediately subsequent race Miner's Reserve ran the same time breaking his maiden and may be a good one for Zito/Lapenta.

Unlike Radiohead, he has the pedigree to stretch out and might be a late bloomer on the Derby Trail, will undoutedly be placed aggressively in his next start.