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Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Not Ruling Out Pletcher

Rule is out, and, according to Mike Welsch in the Form, Todd Pletcher continued to lean strongly against running Interactif in the Derby. The Toddster is down to a filly who I think has no shot, and two colts who I believe do. I know some Sheets guys who really love Mission Impazible, improving slowly but steadily as he has, and with lots of room for further progress. He was pretty tractable in the Louisiana Derby, flashing early speed which carried him to an early lead, dropping back into traffic a few lengths back before moving three wide and rallying resolutely to get up; final furlong in a solid 12.46 seconds. He's a son of Unbridled's Song out of a minor stakes winning Hold Your Peace mare. A bit light in the numbers department with a Tomlinson for the distance of 264 and a dosage index of 4.09, he's a half brother to Forest Camp, a sprint stakes winner and a stallion not particularly known for passing longevity to his progeny. I think Super Saver has better breeding for the distance, and will get to him later.

I mentioned Ice Box rather derogatorily in the last post, though he does figure to be amongst the top few choices off his three wins in his last four races, his 99 Beyer in the Florida Derby, and his popular trainer with a Derby pedigree. About that Beyer, and as I alluded to previously, there were three two-turn dirt races run at Gulfstream that day, all in graded stakes. Ice Box earned a figure that exceeded his prior best by ten points, as did runner-up Pleasant Prince, subsequently a disappointment in the Derby Trial; Devil May Care shattered her prior mark by 11; and Unrivaled Belle set a new lifetime mark as well, albeit just by three points and part of a clear upward pattern. Considering that the abovementioned were three three-year olds, plus Mott's lightly raced four-year old filly, it's certainly possible that all were eligible to move significantly forward. However, these days, the way bettors and pundits rely on the numbers, I think that one has to be willing to sometimes be skeptical of them in order to make some money. So color me skeptical on Zito's colt. Nice distance pedigree - Pulpit out of Spice Island (Tabasco Cat), a graded stakes winner up to a mile and a half. But the Florida Derby was a hot-paced race which fell apart badly, producing top two finishers at odds of 20-1 and 29-1. So I'm tabbing him for minor awards only.

Another sparkling work for Lookin' for Lucky, a legitimate favorite now for sure. But I dunno, can't really get enthused too much about him at 3-1 or 7-2. Nothing specific, just a feeling I guess. Not really jazzed to bet against him either though. Is Penn National running that night?

Interested though to see that Noble's Promise had another nice work. This horse that should have no shot on pedigree continues to intrigue.

This was an important test Noble's Promise had to pass to convince trainer Ken McPeek he was over the minor infirmities that have left his Derby status in doubt the last several weeks. From the looks of things, he passed the test with flying colors. [DRF]

12 Comments:

onecalicocat said...

Well, looks like Backtalk is in.
The first really talented offspring of Smarty Jones.
His jockey, Mena, got the horse into traffic trouble a couple of time in a five-horse field so I am not expecting a stellar ride in a 20-horse field..
I do not think Backtalk (or any Smarty I have seen so far) can handle the distance.
I like the two colts who have shown real competitive spirit -- Lucky and Jackson Bend (a small horse who might slip through like Mine That Bird did last year)

El Angelo said...

I agree with the previous commenter--I think everyone's focusing on the wrong Zito horse.

Anonymous said...

Jackson Bend has no chance. He's not a router. He's a gutsy, hard trying horse who will give you his all every time, but this is oh so the wrong spot for him. TOSS! -jp

alan said...

>>He's a gutsy, hard trying horse who will give you his all every time

Sounds like Giacomo and Mine That Bird.

El Angelo said...

Put it this way: at 40-1, I've heard worse ideas for exotics.

Anonymous said...

Good luck, guys. I agree he'll be a big price and I try not to talk people off big prices, since it's so easy to do. The horse is still a toss for me, but maybe he can grind it out for a piece and screw up my triple. -jp

Anonymous said...

Totally agree with Alan on the chances of Ice Box. The pace totally fell apart in the Fla. Derby... He will be overbet.
I'm starting to think that the conventional wisdom is wrong and that we won't see the pace meltdown everyone Is expecting. And now with Rule out, that is one less frontrunner to deal with...Starting to get the Feeling that Sidneys Candy can work out a great stalking trip just off the lead and get first jump around the turn...With only synthetic races to go off of, sidney's candy could finish aywhere from first to last in this baby though I guess ? Sadler does win everyhing lately though and it doesn't hurt to have him in your corner... And speaking of Lookin at Lucky, can anyone think of another derby favorite that didn't have even a single 100 beyer figure on his pp's ?
This is a slow group figure wise but even 4 to 1 on LAL is insane !
GW

DiscreetPicks said...

Didn't Pioneerof the Nile pretty much fit that description last year?

DiscreetPicks said...

Just heard they're calling for a 50% chance of thunderstorms on Derby Day. Hopefully that'll change...

McCarron said...

I've heard very little about the single most important piece of Ice Box's FLA Derby, namely, he didn't switch leads. Breaking from a brutal post at GP for 1 1/8, closing on a speed favoring surface (yes, yes, I know the fractions were hot), and circling the field to win wihtout changing leads is pretty impressive. I'm by no means endorsing the colt to win, but with the expected fast pace in the Derby, how many other legit closers are in this field?

Anonymous said...

I heard a rumor the Toddster and Zayat scratched Esky after watching Lucky work.

BobF said...

"I'm starting to think that the conventional wisdom is wrong and that we won't see the pace meltdown everyone Is expecting." - GW

That same thought occurred to me the other day. There seems like a lot of need-the-lead types, or at least horses who have only really been successful running that way to this point, in this race. I could see the jockeys outsmarting themselves and letting someone steal this thing on the front end a la War Emblem.
Can't say I'm very excited about the race. Mediocrity is boring. I just hope that whoever wins runs fast and looks really good doing it. That will make the rest of the series a little more interesting. But to me, this is probably the worst looking Derby field in a while. And it's not like the fields of the last couple of years were exactly awe-inspiring.