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Saturday, May 01, 2010

Not A Live Blog

6:24 - The Head Chef thinks that Conveyance is the cutest horse in the field. And she writes off Backtalk. Homeboykriss has no ass, she observes.

6:20 - >> I'm not sure if the bourbon will cause me to do so more....or [less]. I guess it's less.

5:53 - I kind of hope that Pletcher wins, even though I would probably lose (I have a small win bet on MI). He handles the questions well, as he just did with Battaglia; and I'm really sick of seeing the same interviews every single year.

5:30 - No Mine That Birds or Giacomos today with the longest shot in the field only 35-1. The odds are reflecting this crapshoot for what it is. I think that the best values in the field are Dublin (12-1 ML, 18-1) and Conveyance is I mentioned before, though I don't like him anyway. Mission Impazible seems fair value at 18-1.

5:26 - Seriously, you would think that YUM! Brands would produce a new commercial instead of showing this same tacky crap.

5:19 - I love Jim Cantore, but these reports are kinda useless at this point. Not like the track is going to dry out even if the skies suddenly clear.

5:14 - Gary Stevens paints a bleak picture for Lookin At Lucky breaking from the rail. Hmmm. I'm watching a few minutes delayed on the DVR because the Head Chef came home bearing gifts from the supermarket which will be bearing fruit as the evening goes on. Someone please remind me to catch up on the recording so that I don't forget and get shut out trying to bet at the last minute. Rascal Flatts???

4:57 - I have to say that I haven't really given the track condition a second thought, and didn't change my mind on who I like at all. The fact is that we don't really know if any of these can handle this slop on this day on this to me, it just kind of blends in with all of the other substantial unknowns, including and particularly the question of the distance which none of these have ever run. The only horse who has run at CD in the slop was Paddy O'Prado, and he finished up the track in his debut. So why he's getting bet like this I really can't say.

- I'm home from Belmont here at 4:37, and this is not a live blog, but maybe I'll check in here with a comment or two from time to time. I'm not sure if the bourbon will cause me to do so more....or if this is the first and final entry. There's not anyone actually out there, is there? Hello?

I had a good day at the track, having hit the 4th race triple ($158.20) and exacta ($35.20) at Philadelphia Park (as anyone who I subsequently encountered at the track is well aware).

This Derby tote board is unlike anything I've ever seen; with Lookin at Lucky and Super Saver, each at 8-1, just maybe the biggest overlay and underlay in the race, respectively. Chances are that if you like one of the big morning line longshots, you're unhappy; but if you like one of the two top choices, or Conveyance (12-1 ML, 28-1) you're very excited. Good luck to all if I don't get back to you.


DiscreetPicks said...

Nice call on Super Saver, i know you had mentioned him prominently all week.

Anonymous said...

Worst Trip Award: Lookin at Lucky (Who was still fighting and he beat the 4th and 5th horses easily all year.)
2nd worst: Icebox (Wow. He came on like a motherfucker too. )

best trip: super saver
2nd best: nobles promise

worst ride: Joe talamo (a little to eager, and honestly completely fucking moronic, but much like a horse he probably needed the race)

best call: the fucking guy who had to bet $100,000 on Super Saver for the contest.

Worst call: my pool 2 futures.

Hopefully somebody here cashed, although the exacta was like a paltry 75$ Wtf?


El Angelo said...

Ice Box's finish was reminiscent of Menifee in 1999, for whatever that's worth.

Anonymous said...

A little love for the late Maria's Mon, who now has Super Saver to go with Monarchos. Two Derby winners. Not bad.

DiscreetPicks said...

Maria's Mon never ran as a 3yo, did he?

steve in nc said...

Damn, Dirty, I guess you don't spend the time around kids that I do. Or maybe you spend too much time around 'em!

I can't blame Talamo. Maybe I'm in a charitable mood since after 5 months of outsmarting myself out of some big scores, I finally nailed a modest one via the two Pick 3s that ended with the Derby. And to top it off, Borel didn't even cry, at least not while I was watching. Did you see him kiss the outrider?

I think Talamo did his job. From post 20, he actually got decent position before the turn and tried to rate. If he hadn't rated, what, 45:2 instead of the already too fast pace? But the horse got rank. You can blame Sadler for not teaching him to rate, or probaly most appropriate, blame the horse for not being Big Brown.

You are right about Borel's dream ride. Although I was awake at the time, it was as if I dreamed his trip when I looked at the PPs last week. It turned out about exactly as I envisioned it, except he had to go around that one horse. Give Borel extra credit for coming in some out of the gate, forcing the 2 & 3 into Looking at Lucky, but not enough to get an objection. But it wasn't all the ride - I'd have never thought about SS if his Sheet didn't look so good.

Alan, as for slop... Looking over the 9th race for the 3rd time, I noticed the 46:2 workout in the mud at Churchill by Borel's speedball - much faster than any other workout that day - it was labelled "good" but half the workouts were labelled muddy so the track must have been plenty wet. He had Sheet #s equal to the chalks, so fortunately, I used him despite a strong fear he wouldn't get the 7 furlongs.

So after he lasted, I looked through the Derby field for mudders, using strong off-track worktouts, races, and damside slop success as criteria (Discreetly Mine came in here). I ended up circling more than half the field, including Paddy because of that 58:2 wkt at Churchill in the slop this week - his bad slop race was his debut, which is an excuse in itself for me. Icebox, with that 46:2 wkt was at the head of the list.

But that exercise only ended up costing me money in "coverage" DDs to keep me from going nuts if I was right about race 10, but wrong about my chosen Derby few.
I don't think I've ever hit one of those "coverage" bets, but every once in a while, I can't keep myself from doing it. In this case, I stupidly spent almost as much on losing coverage as I did on the small number of P3 combos.

But I guess it is better to feel silly about diluting a score a little than it is to feel smart about successful coverage when you miss the score.

If you're going in for the gigantic carryover in the P6 at CD, good luck. I don't have the stamina for another day of staring and thinking.

Anonymous said...

DC -

Maria's Mon ran twice at 3, although after the classics, finish second in an allowance before being beaten 27 lengths in the Jim Dandy.

Buy the DRF hardback Champions. Worth the fifty bucks.


Anonymous said...

As post time neared, Super Saver became the "obvious" hunch bet: Borel aboard, wet track, Pletcher way overdue, $100K on nose from Texan, etc, etc. This is a hunch bet that actually came in. Too bad about Lookin at Lucky, he had the worst trip I've seen in ages. But Nick Zito's Ice Box did as well and still managed to close the fastest of all. /S/greenmtnpunter

Anonymous said...

I was standing at the rail at that Jim Dandy and it was sad to see MM struggle down the stretch.

He could have been a great horse if not for injury, him and about 100,000 others.

His sire Wavering Monarch was under rated sire and is a great broodmare sire.

Unlikely but not impossible that Monarchos may extend his sire line, but at least Super Saver will get a chance.

Red boarding this was a very logical outcome, SS was obviously going to handle the track and the extra distance based on pedigree plus the added benefit of Borel in the saddle, the public had this one right from early Friday and I was so happy for the guy that bet the 100k.

I believe Sidneys Candy's abyssmal performance had a lot more to do with running on true dirt than it did with the post or the ride. Was happy to see the wagering public recognize this and downgrade his chances. Not much Talamo could do from out there, but him being anxious in his first ride should have been considered in anyone's handicapping. Good kid, good rider, he might win one of these someday.

I could have made a million bets on this race and I would never have Make Music For Me in the third slot. Last horse in the race justified his entry, so much for all my critcism.

In fact, he did have quite a few credible performances in his PP line during his bizarre campaign, all on AWT of course.

And yes the EX was very short, the folks sitting next to me had it and I told them it would pay $200, thought the girl was going to cry when she saw the payout, whe thought she won big.

Anonymous said...

At what point does Gomez start to take some heat for his rides?

He is supposed to be a "big race" rider but damn he has done nothing lately,especially on this horse.

ballyfager said...

The exacta was $152, not $75. I know because I had it. I boxed Super Saver with the four horses I listed here yesterday. I refused to let Borel beat me.

People going overboard on Borel need to remember that last summer at Saratoga he could barely get any mounts. But he's good at CD.

Listings of riders to win back to back Derbies never list Bobby Ussery who actually won in 67 & 68. In 68 they remove Dancers Image as the winner after the fact but Ussery still won that race on the track.

Anonymous said...

Anon- Gomez was absolutely torched for all to see by baffert after the SA derby. And WTF could he have done here? If you look at the head on it looks like Borel has Super Saver already aimed at the rail inside the starting gate.

Bally- it's one of those $1 vs $2 things.

I had a super box with the 2nd through 6th horses.

What if SS got taken down by divine intervention.???